Manpower Forecasting Research Articles

Human Resources Planning and Organizational Effectiveness of Deposit Money Banks in Port Harcourt

The focused of this study was human resource planning and organizational effectiveness (a study of deposit money banks in Port Harcourt). The study's goal was to determine how much human resource planning impacts an organization's effectiveness. The study specifically examines the effect of manpower forecasting and employee audit on managerial competence and attainment of objective of selected money deposit banks in Port Harcourt. The secondary source of data collection was adopted since it was more of theoretical review and opinion based. Hence, the information was sourced from journals, article, internet, textbooks etc. The study findings revealed that manpower forecasting has effect on manager’s competence in deposit money banks in Port Harcourt; and there is a relationship between employee audit and attainment of objective in deposit money banks in Port Harcourt. The study comes to the conclusion that a well-planned human resource strategy can help institutions, particularly deposit money banks in Port Harcourt and have qualified employees who are doing the right thing at the right time and in the right place, thereby enhancing or promoting the organization's operational effectiveness. According to the study's findings and recommendations, deposit money banks and their human resource managers should regularly conduct manpower audits and planning to ascertain in advance the demand and supply situation in the labour market prior to hiring employees.

THE EFFECT OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING ON ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE: A STUDY OF SELECTED BREWERIES IN THE SOUTH-EAST, NIGERIA

This study examined the effect of manpower planning on organizational performance in the Brewery industry in South-East, Nigeria. The literature review section touched on all the four-main sections of the review which include conceptual review, theoretical framework, theoretical exposition and empirical review. The study adopted descriptive survey design and used summary and descriptive statistics as well as regression analysis as the main tools of analysis. All tests were conducted at 0.05 level of significance. Preliminary results indicated that F-Statistic of 18.029 is statistical significant and as such, the model was considered valid for predictions. The regression coefficient showed that 61.7 percent relationship exists between the dependent and independent variables. The coefficient of determination also showed that 52.9 percent variation in the dependent variable can be explained by the regressors. Major findings are that manpower planning in the area of forecasting to anticipate employees number and skills/expertise level have significant positive effect on organizational performance. It was concluded that human resource planning is very essential for optimal performance in the brewery industry. The study recommended among others that the issue of human resource planning should be treated in the organization with the seriousness that it deserves. Keywords: Human Resource Planning, Manpower Forecasting, Manpower Planning, Organizational Performance, Brewery Industry and Southeast Nigeria.

Nursing manpower forecast for cancer patients

Background and objectivesThis paper presents a dynamic model aimed at predicting nursing manpower requirements for cancer care over the next ten years. The proposed model, based on the Taiwan Health Insurance Database (2000 to 2010), is meant to serve as a reference in establishing policy for government health units. MethodsThe proposed prediction model uses fuzzy sets to replace definite values with interval values in order to account for uncertainties in real-world data and enhance the flexibility of prediction results. ResultsOur results suggest that the demand for nursing manpower for cancer care will grow steadily in the foreseeable future. The gap between the demand for nursing staff and the supply is expected to peak in 2027. By then, the number of oncologists is expected to reach 7,083 (54.32% of the total number of in-hospital physicians), but the number of oncology nurses will be less than 26,297 (56.5% of the total healthcare manpower). It is also expected that there will be fewer than 1,613 outpatient physicians (71.81% of the total number of physicians) and fewer than 4,967 outpatient nurses (68.46% of the total nursing manpower). ConclusionsThis paper provides a valuable reference for government agencies involved in the nursing manpower planning to improve the quality of nursing care.

Health Manpower Forecasting: A systematic Review for Models and Approaches

Background: An appropriate planning requires forecasting the demand and supply of health manpower in an accurate manner.
 Objectives: The paper objective was to review health manpower forecasting approaches and methods and propose the improvement features for effectiveness of health manpower planning.
 Data sources: A systematic review was conducted for studies published in English from 1970-2014 using Pub Med, Science Direct, Pro Quest, and Google Scholar databases.
 Study eligibility criteria: Review articles, qualitative studies, questionnaire driven surveys, retrospective and prospective studies describing or applying various types of forecasting approaches and methods in health manpower forecasting were included in the review.
 Data collection and study appraisal: Two reviewers (SR and MA) independently appraised the studies to identify relevant ones to be included in the review.
 Results: A total of 128 studies were included in the review. As a result, two main categories of approaches (conceptual and analytical) for health manpower forecasting were identified with their strengths and weaknesses.
 Conclusions: Future forecasting methods should benefit from advantages of current approaches and overcome some of their main limitations. Applying a method which incorporates a wide range of factors affecting supply and demand, facilitates the collection of good quality data, monitors changing trends over time, considers the uncertainty of health systems and has a dynamic approach is proposed as an improvement roadmap for future forecasting.
 Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol.18(3) 2019 p.458-472

The Manpower Forecasting Approach. Notes in Retrospect

The Manpower Forecasting Approach. Notes in Retrospect

Identifying Higher-Education Level Skill Needs in Labor Markets: The Main Tools Usable for Turkey

There are natural mismatches in the labor market between the demand for higher-educated laborers and the supply of graduates provided by the higher education system in terms of quantity and qualifications. While there are open positions, some graduates still cannot find work. There are various findings indicating that the mismatch between qualification and skill is significantly high in Turkey. The fundamental political tools for reducing such mismatches include identifying the capacities of higher education programs based on skill needs, corporate structures ensuring the participation of relevant parties in the educational process, matching and consultancy services for jobseekers, and continuing education for the unemployed. Implementation of such policies depends on identifying in higher education which higher education-level skills are needed currently and for the future. The objective of this study is to identify the principal studies required to reveal the need for amount and qualifications of workers with higher education in Turkey. For this purpose, the subject is handled with theoretical foundations; field research data is evaluated and possible sets of studies and activities complying with the economic and social structure of Turkey are suggested by discussing alternative approaches and tools developed for the solution of the issue. A set of studies has been suggested under three categories (a) manpower forecasts, (b) skills needs researches generating micro data to enrich these forecasts, and (c) the information that comes from the participation and contributions of social parties in the educational process.

The manpower forecast model of the energy technology industry

Based on the data analysis of the Taiwan National Science Council’s (TNSC) Technology Program Database from 1997 to 2008, this study builds a personnel forecasting model utilizing the Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) to forecast the manpower trend in the energy technology industry in the upcoming years. The study indicates that the total supply of manpower dedicated to the energy technology field will gradually increase from 2009 to 2013. In the forecast model from 2009 to 2014, the average manpower supply growth rate is 4.76%; however, the growth rate in personnel, number of research plans, and projected budgets are lower than those warranted by the needs. Although cross-domain research flows steadily into the energy technology segment, the industry’s attrition rate is 11.6%, and the rate at which researchers leave and go to other cross-domain research fields is as high as 19.56%.

Construction manpower demand forecasting

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the vector error‐correction (VEC) econometric modelling technique in predicting short‐ to medium‐term construction manpower demand.Design/methodology/approachThe VEC modelling technique is evaluated with two conventional forecasting methods: the Box‐Jenkins approach and the multiple regression analysis, based on the forecasting accuracy on construction manpower demand.FindingsWhile the forecasting reliability of the VEC modelling technique is slightly inferior to the multiple log‐linear regression analysis in terms of forecasting accuracy, the error correction econometric modelling technique outperformed the Box‐Jenkins approach. The VEC and the multiple linear regression analysis in forecasting can better capture the causal relationship between the construction manpower demand and the associated factors.Practical implicationsAccurate predictions of the level of manpower demand are important for the formulation of successful policy to minimise possible future skill mismatch.Originality/valueThe accuracy of econometric modelling technique has not been evaluated empirically in construction manpower forecasting. This paper unveils the predictability of the prevailing manpower demand forecasting modelling techniques. Additionally, economic indicators that are significantly related to construction manpower demand are identified to facilitate human resource planning, and policy simulation and formulation in construction.

The influence of Philip Foster on the World Bank

At a conference on education in Addis Ababa in 1961 countries from all over the world gathered to assess their ambitions for education. Without exception, each brought a report justifying their plans in accordance with a manpower forecast. It did not matter whether they were socialist or capitalist, newly independent or of long standing independence; it did not matter whether they were Asian, African or European. Manpower plans had a monopoly, being the accepted technique to respond to the question: Should the public invest more in education and how can it know if the investment will be productive? For the 18 years from the time of its first loan in 1962‐1980, the World Bank justified every education lending operation through the use of manpower forecasting (Heyneman 2003). Among the consequences of this analytic monopoly was the restriction of all lending to specific skill instruction and to vocational and engineering schools. Primary and secondary schools were occasionally allowed to benefit from a loan, but only if they could be justified by adding workshops, handicraft centres and other ‘‘practical’’ facilities. Academic skills were described as being ‘‘impractical.’’ They were thought to lead students astray, to encourage them to migrate to the cities and to be disgruntled when they did not find work or work appropriate to their expectations, which were assumed to be unrealistic. There were two problems with this. The first was that the bias introduced by manpower forecasting meant that important areas of the education sector had to be ignored (Heyneman 1986a). During this period the Bank could lend for the improvement of universities but only in the faculties of engineering. Regardless of the demand from the country, internal rules meant that the Bank could not assist general libraries, the liberal arts, the humanities, general science, primary or secondary education, preschool education, education research or statistics (Heyneman 1987). None of these areas could be justified with a manpower plan and hence they were forbidden. The second problem concerned the demand for new kinds of lending. Vocational and technical education was a small part of the education sector and under President

A dynamic manpower forecasting model for the information security industry

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated model for manpower forecasting for the information security (IS) industry, one of the fastest growing IT‐related industries. The proposed model incorporates three critical factors (feedback structure, time lags, and a flexible saturation point) in a system dynamics (SD) simulation frame.Design/methodology/approachA simulation model using SD is developed for a dynamic manpower forecasting by decomposing complex processes of manpower planning into a set of feedback loops with a causal‐loop diagram. Data gathered from a Korean Government agency were utilized in the simulation for forecasting the manpower demand and supply in the context of the IS industry.FindingsThe simulation results showed an overall IS manpower shortage in the IS industry. Policy alternatives were proposed based on the simulation results. The simulation model was rerun to reflect the various alternatives to achieve a stable manpower balance between demand and supply.Originality/valueThe research provides insights into the development of effective manpower planning at the industry level (macro level), and policies to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. The research model was developed and verified using SD.

The Assessment of Long-Term Manpower Requirements

In his paper, the author presents methods to forecast long-term manpower requirements : employer interviews, extrapolation of trends derived from historical data, standard growth curves, examination of the technology and manpower demand in new firms and industries, study of occupational growth prospects and requirements, comprehensive econometric models. And finally, the article contains a brief examination of French and American current research and practices in long-term manpower forecasting.

A note on fuzzy regression model with fuzzy input and output data for manpower forecasting

Lee and Chen (Fuzzy Sets and Systems 119 (2001) 205) introduced a generalized fuzzy linear regression model and proposed a nonlinear programming model to identify the fuzzy parameters and their vagueness for the generalized regression model. In this note, we show that the proposed nonlinear programming model is invalid.

The history and problems in the making of education policy at the World Bank 1960–2000

The reports seem contradictory. With about three billion dollars per year in new loan commitments, the World Bank has become the single largest source of development capital in the field of international education. These resources help expand educational opportunities for young women in South Asia and rebuild primary schools following civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. They support textbooks, school meals, new curriculum, and teacher training in thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of locations in over 100 countries in six regions. But ‘the Bank’ as it is commonly referred to, is also the object of considerable criticism. Some argue that its loan covenants are too restrictive. Its policy reforms are based on narrow, neo-liberal assumptions about the role of the state. Local policy makers have become passive recipients of the Bank’s agendas. To obtain loans, countries have agreed to raise education fees, which has exacerbated divisions between rich and poor. How is it that a multilateral UN lending institution, managed by its owners in proportion to shares of equity, has become involved in education? How are educational lending priorities and policies actually established and how have they changed over time? Is there validity to the many criticisms of the World Bank in the field of education, and how has the Bank responded? Finally, what changes and recommendations might be considered to ameliorate the long standing tension between the interests which generate lending and those which stand for more intelligence or effectiveness of that lending? This article discusses how Bank lending priorities are established and loans designed and approved. It attempts to illustrate how and why the Bank, as opposed to other international organizations, has increasingly influenced the global education agenda. It highlights why the Bank’s policies on education have not been as effective as postulated, and in some cases have created significant educational distortions in a nation’s education sector. This analysis is predicated on the Bank’s tendency to become ‘captured’ by single methodologies beginning with manpower forecasting and later rate of return techniques. This tended to bias its views with respect to particular sub-sectors, educational functions and purposes. Some of these distortions can be traced back to its entry into the sector in the 1960s. The article raises the question of who should be held accountable when over time Bank policies prove to be dysfunctional. The article concludes that in spite of the importance of having intelligent education policies for social and economic development, there is no single international organization to effectively provide them. The article suggests three options for changing international organizations so as to deliver better analytic work, more intelligent policies and more effective programs of education assistance.

Modelling Labour Demand at Project Level — An Empirical Study in Hong Kong

The construction industry plays a significant role to the economy of Hong Kong not only in terms of output but also the employment. The sector, however, has been severely hit by the economic downturn in recent years resulting in serious unemployment. Employment planning becomes one of the critical aspects for the recovery of the economy. The main objective of this paper is to establish a labour demand model for the Hong Kong construction industry. The unique characteristics and the current conditions of the construction labour market are reviewed. Regression analysis based on 123 construction projects was used to compute the relationship between expenditure and site workers employed. The best predictor of average labour demand of construction projects in Hong Kong is found to be DL = 463 C 0.934, where DL is the actual labour demand in man‐days, C is the final cost of contract in millions. The labour demand‐cost relationship can be applied as a manpower forecasting model to estimate the total labour required for a given type of project. The developed model enables a more reliable and accurate planning of manpower requirements in the construction industry.

Fuzzy regression model with fuzzy input and output data for manpower forecasting

In modeling a fuzzy system with fuzzy linear functions, the vagueness of the fuzzy output data may be caused by both the indefiniteness of model parameters and the vagueness of the input data. This situation occurs as the input data are envisaged as facts or events of an observation which are uncontrollable or uninfluenced by the observer rather than as the controllable levels of factors in an experiment. In this research, we concentrate on such a situation and refer to it as a generalized fuzzy linear function. Using this generalized fuzzy linear function, a generalized fuzzy regression model is formulated. A nonlinear programming model is proposed to identify the fuzzy parameters and their vagueness for the generalized regression model. A manpower forecasting problem is used to demonstrate the use of the proposed model.

Interpreting Gaps in Manpower Forecasting Models

In manpower forecasting labour market developments are analysed in terms of shortages and surpluses. Such an approach seems to neglect the flexibility of the labour market, present in most economic labour market models. It is shown that an appropriate interpretation of gaps in manpower forecasting does not exclude a full functioning of the market clearing mechanism.

An integration model for manpower forecasting

Manpower forecasting has made significant contributions to human resource management. Due to difficulties in collecting the required data for making appropriate analysis, most studies in the literature concentrate on forecasts of individual firms. This paper presents a regression model which utilizes the data of large firms to draw inferences to the demands of other firms. More specifically, a regression model showing the negative relationship between the rank of a firm and its associated demand is fitted to the data of a number of large manufacturing firms. The area under the regression line delineated by the y-axis is then an estimate of the total demand of the whole industry. Confidence intervals for the estimate can also be constructed. As an illustration, the demand for the industrial management manpower in Taiwan is forecasted by applying the proposed model.

An integration model for manpower forecasting

An integration model for manpower forecasting

The use of RAS in manpower forecasting: A microeconomic approach

This paper deals with the use of RAS in manpower forecasting. The starting point is a microeconomic allocation model of the firm in which the optimal employment by education is determined. Two restricting hypotheses, dealing with the uniformity of wage changes and technologies over industries, are formulated. Several variants of the allocation model, differing with regard to accepting these hypotheses, are investigated. It is shown that these variants can all be rearranged to obtain the RAS structure. The performances of the RAS variants indicate the validity of the hypotheses. It is concluded that neither hypothesis can be rejected.

The future labour market for R&D Manpower in The Netherlands

AbstractAn adequate supply of qualified research and development (R&D) personnel is an important precondition for a government policy that aims for a strongly knowledge‐intensive economic growth. As in many other OECD countries, there is great concern in The Netherlands about meeting this crucial condition in the next decades. This article tries to show to what extent this current concern is justified. For that purpose, forecasts of future supply and demand for research manpower in the science and engineering fields (including agriculture and health) have been produced, extending to the year 2010. Sensitivity analyses show that the fore‐casts are not very sensitive to alternative assumptions on economic growth, investments, replacement demand and labour supply.From a methodological point of view the forecasting approach differs from the more traditional manpower forecasting. Firstly, the demand for R&D personnel is split up into an increase in total employment for R&D manpower (expansion demand) on the one hand, and, on the other hand, the need for replacements for researchers who retire, die or switch to other occupations (replacement demand). Expansion and replacement demand are considered in three sectors of R&D work: universities, research institutes and private enterprises. Expansion demand and replacement demand together determine the job openings for newcomers. These job openings are confronted with the supply of new R&D manpower, which is largely determined by the output of the educational system. The confrontation of demand and supply forecasts shows that, in general, severe shortages of R & D manpower will result if there are not adequate manpower policy adjustment. The article closes with a discussion of the policy implications of the expected disequilibria in the market for R & D manpower.