Managing Urban Growth Research Articles

Managing Urban Growth – an Overview of the Literature

Today, most countries in the global north have developed and implemented urban growth management (UGM) programs and policies aimed at mitigating the impacts and negative externalities of urban sprawl and achieving a more compact urban form. However, there is substantial disagreement about their effectiveness and effects of these programs. In this paper, we systematically review the extensive literature on growth management to better understand a) the current state of the practice of UGM, and b) the determinants of successful UGM implementation. Compared to previously available literature syntheses, which focus heavily on North American research, we also take into account studies based in Europe and some Asian and Oceanic countries. From this literature, we identify several key factors to successful growth management implementation: a multi-level governance approach, intersectoral policy coordination, a regionally adapted mix of policy instruments, balancing development needs with preservation goals, and the ability to develop positive narratives around growth management.

Forecasting Urban Expansion in the Seven Lakes Area in San Pablo City, Laguna, the Philippines Using the Land Transformation Model

Managing urban growth is essential to the conservation of the Seven Lakes ecosystem in San Pablo City, Laguna province in the Philippines. This study simulates potential conversion of agricultural lands to built-up areas using the land transformation model (LTM), which integrates geographical information systems (GIS) and an artificial neural network (ANN). Historical drivers of the expansion of built-up areas are identified and validated through the application of LTM to land cover maps from 1988 to 2015. Identified drivers include distance to roads, distance to trails, distance to the Seven Lakes, distance to existing built-up areas, slopes and population density per barangay. Results from the percent correct matrix (PCM) were 79.88 per cent for the 1988–2003 runs and 66.42 per cent for the 2003–2015 runs, while the Kappa statistic for both time periods was higher than 0.60, which indicates high levels of agreement. Forecasted scenarios were business-as-usual (BAU) growth, doubled growth and strict law implementation protecting the vicinity around the Seven Lakes and other natural areas. In the BAU scenario, urban expansion spread out along the road networks. The doubled growth scenario showed that further expansion will likely extend around the proximity of the lakes, which may adversely affect the livelihoods of the local fishing communities. As such, it was recommended that preventive measures, such as strict implementation of buffer zones coupled with regular monitoring, be taken to manage land use in the surrounding lake areas.

Urban Growth and Climate Adaptation in Australia: Divergent Discourses and Implications for Policy-making

Managing urban growth is inherently contentious. Government policies seek to facilitate and spatially contain growth, while balancing public and private interests. The need for climate adaptation strategies in the urban context is recognised but arguably poorly institutionalised in growth management policies or in urban governance more broadly. This paper considers how debates around urban adaptation and growth management are structured in the discourses of local government, private developers and other actors. A discourse analysis of written submissions and media releases from four urban policy debates in Queensland, Australia, is presented. The analysis highlights the discursive strategies employed by different actors and the way their arguments have been consolidated in the practices of urban policy-making. The analysis suggests a divergence of growth and adaptation storylines, contributing to maintaining the gap between these policy agendas. Progress may be made, however, in the pragmatic discourses of actual policy implementation.

Managing urban growth in a transforming China: Evidence from Beijing

Managing urban growth in the current rapid urbanization process has become a key issue for land use policy in transformation China. This paper maps and assesses the performance of urban containment strategies in China, looking at the case of Beijing over a 19-year period (1990–2009). The analysis shows that to a large extent containment strategies perform well in terms of concentrating urban growth in planned suburban areas and promoting compact development. However, the unexpected growth in the rural–urban fringe and the decreased compactness of the fringes of the mixed urban areas and planned peripheral constellations caused by dispersed and illegal development suggest that the municipal containment strategies are being challenged by local development activities. Most sprawling developments at the local level are favoured by the new trend towards local autonomy and fiscal responsibility in the current transformation process. The results reveal that municipal growth control might not be achieved by all local jurisdictions when local economic motivations are involved. Particularly, urban sprawl has been fuelled by the development of urban real estate which can create significant revenues for local government and private developers. In the interest of future policy development, the management capacity of current containment strategies should be enhanced to mitigate the negative effects of market-led development in the present transformation context.

Modeling and Managing Urban Growth at the Rural-Urban Fringe: A Parcel-Level Model of Residential Land Use Change

As many local and state governments in the United States grapple with increasing growth pressures, the need to understand the economic and institutional factors underlying these pressures has taken on added urgency. From an economic perspective, individual land use decisions play a central role in the manifestation of growth pressures, as changes in land use pattern are the cumulative result of numerous individual decisions regarding the use of lands. In this study, the issue of growth management is addressed by developing a spatially disaggregated, microeconomic model of land conversion decisions suitable for describing residential land use change at the rural-urban fringe. The model employs parcel-level data on land use in Calvert County, Maryland, a rapidly growing rural-urban fringe county. A probabilistic model of residential land use change is estimated using a duration model, and the parameter estimates are employed to simulate possible future growth scenarios under alternative growth management scenarios. Results suggest that “smart growth” objectives are best met when policies aimed at concentrating growth in target areas are implemented in tandem with policies designed to preserve rural or open space lands.

Managing Urban Growth for the Efficient Use of Public Infrastructure: Toward a Theory of Concurrency

Managing Urban Growth for the Efficient Use of Public Infrastructure: Toward a Theory of Concurrency

Managing Urban Growth for the Efficient Use of Public Infrastructure: Toward a Theory of Concurrency

In this article, the authors develop three dynamic models of urban growth with a focus on the efficient utilization of lumpy urban infrastructure. First, the authors show that the optimal growth rate depends on the rate at which infrastructure capacity is consumed when public service levels are variable and produced with a fixed stock of public infrastructure. Second, it is shown that the optimal growth rate depends on the rate of increase in marginal public service costs when public service levels are fixed and provided with variable inputs and a fixed stock of infrastructure. Third, the authors examine the optimal growth path when service levels are fixed and infrastructure is expanded in lumpsum increments. Under these conditions, the authors show that the optimum urban growth path depends on the level and timing of investments in urban infrastructure and that efficiencies can be gained by coordinating public and private investments in urban development.

Coordinating Opposite Approaches to Managing Urban Growth and Curbing Sprawl: A Synthesis

The purchase of development rights to farmland and open space has recently gained in popularity as a growth management tool. A purchase of development rights program pays the landowner for the unearned increment in exchange for strong deed restrictions, limiting the use of the property. On the other hand, land value taxation, a modification of Henry George's Single Tax, would tax land more heavily than improvements, thus encouraging the development of land. While land value taxation and the purchase of development rights appear to be opposing fiscal policies, they could be employed together as part of a regional planning strategy to encourage in‐fill development within and near cities and to curb sprawl by retaining farm, forest, and ranch lands.

Managing Urban Growth with Urban Growth Boundaries: A Theoretical Analysis

Managing Urban Growth with Urban Growth Boundaries: A Theoretical Analysis

Dade County: The Politics of Managing Urban Growth

This is one of several articles specially prepared for this issue of Science in recognition of Habitat: The United Nations Conference on Human Settlements now taking place in Vancouver.