Managerial Overconfidence Research Articles

Corporate financialization and export product quality: evidence from China

We examine the impact of corporate financialization on export product quality using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2015. Our findings indicate that corporate financialization inhibits the upgrading of export product quality through ‘innovation crowding out’ and ‘factor substitution’ effects. Heterogeneity tests reveal that this negative effect is pronounced for firms with strong motivations for market arbitrage, precautionary savings, tunneling, as well as higher managerial overconfidence. Additionally, firms exporting to high-income countries, engaging in general trade in less digitally developed regions, and adopting compensation incentives are more susceptible to the disincentive effects of corporate financialization on export product quality.

How do aspirations work? Financial performance shortfalls and firms' green innovation

AbstractResearch on the behavioral theory of the firm (BTOF) highlights the role of performance shortfalls in managers' decision process. However, previous studies tend to ignore the heterogeneity of historical and social aspirations. This paper investigates how firms' green innovation, a typical environmental behavior, differently responds to financial performance shortfalls relative to historical and social aspirations. Based on the view of problemistic search, we argue and find that financial performance shortfalls derived from historical aspiration impair green innovation, whereas financial performance shortfalls derived from social aspiration first reduce and then promote green innovation, demonstrating a U‐shaped relationship. Moreover, we find that the two aspirations may interact to influence green innovation activities. Specifically, the negative effect of performance shortfalls (historical) is more pronounced when the financial performance is below social aspiration, whereas the U‐shaped effect is flattened if the financial performance is at or above historical aspiration. Further, we explore how the effects vary with financial constraints and manager overconfidence to distinguish the underlying mechanisms. Our study extends a nascent understanding of aspiration heterogeneity by revealing firms' different green innovation strategies in response to different aspirations.

How CEOs’ overconfidence influences financial statement comparability under competition

This research investigates the relationship between product market competition, Chief Executive Officers’ (CEOs) overconfidence and financial statement comparability. It presents evidence supporting the argument that product market competition diminishes financial statement comparability consistent with the agency problem. Furthermore, it suggests that this negative relationship intensifies when CEOs display overconfidence. A tendency to underestimate risks and have an exaggerated view of one's abilities are indicators of overconfidence leading to the comparability of financial statements. This study analyzes 53,233 data observations spanning from 1992 to 2022 using firm and year-fixed effects panel regressions. The empirical findings confirm a negative relationship between product market competition and financial statement comparability. Moreover, this negative relationship is more pronounced under the leadership of overconfident CEOs. These findings remain robust even after we address other potential measurement concerns related to product market competition. Ultimately, this study highlights the necessity for regulatory institutions to closely monitor firms operating in competitive markets particularly those led by overconfident managers. Additionally, policymakers and regulatory bodies should exercise increased scrutiny when evaluating the financial reporting of such firms to enhance investor confidence. Future research could investigate alternative methods for deriving overconfidence measures from publicly available databases and examine how regulatory and institutional differences in various countries impact the quality of financial reporting including financial statement comparability.

The impact of digital transformation on ESG performance

This paper constructs an analytical framework of digital transformation affecting enterprise ESG performance based on the investment perspective. And empirical analyses are conducted using firm-level panel data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2020 in the China's Stock Markets. It is found that digital transformation significantly improves enterprise ESG performance. Digital transformation improves enterprise ESG performance by enhancing risk-taking capacity, mitigating agency conflicts, and suppressing management overconfidence. Heterogeneity analyses show that the effects of digital transformation on capital investment efficiency and firms' ESG performance are more pronounced among firms in mature and declining stages. Digital transformation has a significant impact on capital investment efficiency and corporate ESG performance in both technology-intensive and capital-intensive firms. These findings are crucial for understanding the key role of digital transformation in shaping long-term economic growth potential and sustainability from an investment perspective.

Alcohol culture and employee treatment

This paper examines the impact of corporate alcohol culture on employee treatment, and find that a rich corporate alcohol culture atmosphere is negative significantly associated with employee treatment. Mechanistically, the corporate alcohol culture increases the aggressiveness motivation of management, in turn increasing risk taking and management overconfidence. Furthermore, the corporate alcohol culture extends managing external social network rather than developing interpersonal relationships, which causes management to less focus on protecting employees' rights and interests. Notably, the inhibitory impact of corporate alcohol culture on employee treatment is particularly pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), male-dominated industries, and firms with high entertainment expenditure rates. These insights underscore the nuanced dynamics of alcohol culture within corporate settings and its implications for employee welfare and organizational behavior.

CEO financial background and corporate financialization

Corporate financialization has become increasingly predominant; however, the impact of chief executive officers’ (CEOs’) characteristics on this trend remains underexplored. Although past studies have examined executive backgrounds, the effect of CEOs’ financial expertise on entity enterprises’ financialization levels is unclear. This study examined how CEOs’ financial backgrounds affect corporate financialization in Chinese A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2022. Using panel data and statistical techniques, we found that CEOs with financial backgrounds significantly promote corporate financialization. This effect is primarily mediated through increased managerial overconfidence and mitigated corporate financing constraints. The impact is more pronounced in non-state-owned and low-cash-flow firms. Our findings contribute to understanding how executive characteristics shape corporate financial strategies and offer insights for optimizing corporate governance and decision-making processes in an increasingly financialized business environment.

Does continuous innovation failure lead firm innovation to hesitate to press forward?: Evidence from Chinese-listed technology-intensive industries firms

Continuous innovation failure is a common phenomenon in the process of firm innovation. However, little is known about how continuous innovation failure affects firm innovation, and what factors moderate the relationship between them. Using the empirical data from China’s technology-intensive industries listed firms, we find that continuous innovation failure doesn’t lead firm innovation to hesitate to press forward but promotes firms to increase innovation. Managerial overconfidence strengthens the positive impact of continuous innovation failure on firm innovation. Interestingly, managerial power does not enhance but weakens the regulatory role of managerial overconfidence. Further analysis shows that continuous innovation failure will prompt firms to increase exploratory innovation and reduce exploitative innovation. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the promotion effect of continuous innovation failure on firm innovation will be enhanced in firms with higher financial redundancy, but will be weakened in firms with higher R&D subsidies.

Risk Management in Product Diversification: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence in Cost Stickiness—Evidence from Iran

Purpose: This study investigates the relationship between product diversification strategy and cost stickiness, focusing on managerial overconfidence as a moderating factor. It aims to address a critical gap in the literature by providing empirical insights grounded in the Resource-Based View (RBV) theory, specifically examining firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Methodology: Utilizing a sample of 149 companies from the Tehran Stock Exchange in Iran spanning from 2015 to 2021, this study tests two hypotheses: (1) a positive relationship between product diversification and cost stickiness and (2) the amplification of this relationship by managerial overconfidence. Product diversification is quantified using the Herfindahl Index, while managerial overconfidence is measured through an investment-based index derived from capital expenditures. Cost stickiness is assessed by analysing the asymmetric behaviour of costs in response to changes in sales, focusing on how costs tend to remain high even when sales decrease. Findings: The empirical results substantiate both hypotheses, demonstrating a significant positive relationship between product diversification strategy and cost stickiness. Furthermore, managerial overconfidence amplifies this relationship, highlighting the role of internal resources and managerial perceptions in shaping cost behaviour. Originality: This study contributes substantially to the literature by being among the first to empirically examine the interplay between product diversification strategy, cost stickiness, and managerial overconfidence. Extending the RBV theory to cost behaviour and strategic management provides novel insights for scholars and practitioners in entrepreneurship, corporate strategy, and organizational behaviour. The findings underscore the importance of strategic choices and managerial traits in determining cost stickiness, offering valuable implications for financial analysts, auditors, and stakeholders.

Do Firms Gain From Managerial Overconfidence? Managerial Bargaining Power and the Role of Severance Pay

ABSTRACTWe analyze the effects of optimism and overconfidence when the manager has bargaining power and the compensation package includes severance pay. Optimism implies that the manager overestimates the probability of success, while overconfidence induces the manager to overestimate the increase in the probability of success due to her investment. If the manager can renegotiate the initial contract, the advantage of using severance pay to induce the manager to invest, commonly found in the literature, is reduced by the presence of the biases. Optimism increases severance pay and managerial entrenchement with a negative effect on expected profit. Overconfidence reduces incentive pay, as shown by the previous literature, but its effect on severance pay depends on the intensity of the bias. A moderate overconfidence reduces severance pay and increases expected profit. Conversely, extreme overconfidence increases severance pay and this may offset the beneficial effect on incentive pay. Thus, the attempt to exploit managerial overconfidence to reduce incentive pay may backfire if the manager is replaced. Our model suggests that the large severance payments documented by the empirical literature represent a form of efficient contracting when the optimistic and overconfident manager has bargaining power.

The Effect of Institutional Ownership on the Relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and Firm Performance of Egyptian Listed Company: An Empirical study

The Effect of Institutional Ownership on the Relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and Firm Performance of Egyptian Listed Company: An Empirical study

Impact of product market competition on the overconfidence cash holdings relationship in Chinese firms

Traditional Confucian and hierarchical cultures in China often lead managers to become overconfident and hold more cash, which negatively impacts enterprise development. Therefore, in China, the mitigation of excess cash holdings among overconfident managers is worthy of further research. This study examines the effects of manager overconfidence on corporate cash holdings using data from 922 Chinese listed companies and totals 6849 observations. This study is based on a quantitative analysis approach using the Fixed Effects Model and Generalised Method of Moments. The empirical data indicate that manager overconfidence is positively associated with cash holdings. Furthermore, product market competition mitigates the direct correlation between managerial overconfidence and cash holdings. Finally, the impact was particularly noticeable for small and non-state-owned enterprises. This study draws on China's Confucian and hierarchical cultures to explain why overconfident managers tend to hold more cash and offers a different perspective on how product market competition affects the abovementioned relationship. This research enhances the understanding of managerial overconfidence and its economic repercussions and also contributes to the effect of product market competition on the corporate governance of Chinese listed companies.

Does Managerial Overconfidence Change with Market Conditions? Risk Management for Financial Institutions

Overconfidence (hubris or overestimation of one’s ability to perform) has been viewed in the finance literature as a character trait that is stable over time, e.g., assuming that if a manager is overconfident, he/she is overconfident all the time. In this paper, we aim to show that managerial overconfidence can be state-contingent, i.e., the level of managerial overconfidence could be influenced by an external economic shock such as the global financial crisis in 2008. A novelty of this paper is to provide evidence for and application of the concept of state-based managerial overconfidence, which is new in the finance literature. Two empirical studies were reported. In the first study (Study 1), we analyzed real market data by linear regression. We found that managerial overconfidence could vary according to changes in the state of the macroeconomy or tightening of corporate governance policies. In the second study (Study 2), we conducted a lab experiment simulating how external manipulations could alter participants’ confidence level. Both our empirical studies provide strong evidence of state-contingent overconfidence by Student’s t-test and contribute to the current finance literature, which assumes overconfidence as a personality trait. Our findings have important practical implications for the credit market. According to the state-contingent overconfidence hypothesis, creditors might reduce the loan amount or the loan duration (or other loan contract terms) too excessively by more than the efficient level during an economic downturn if the offsetting effect of state-contingent overconfidence is ignored.

Excess goodwill and enterprise litigation risk

Corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are now a common strategic choice for enterprises. As such, goodwill, which is a core asset of M&A activities, is pivotal for financial valuation and accounting. However, the phenomenon of ‘excess goodwill’, resulting from overvaluation due to management overconfidence and performance promises, poses significant risks, including potential financial statement distortions and increased litigation. This study investigates the intrinsic link between excess goodwill and corporate litigation risk by utilising theoretical analyses and empirical tests. By analysing data from A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2007 to 2022, we employed the regression residual method to measure excess goodwill and determine its impact on litigation risk through mediating factors such as financing constraints, risk-taking and agency costs. The findings indicate that excess goodwill significantly increases litigation risk, with a more pronounced effect on manufacturing firms and those with low internal control quality. This research provides valuable insights into optimising goodwill accounting treatment and enhancing enterprise risk management practices. The study's implications suggest that stricter internal controls and cautious goodwill valuation practices are essential to mitigate risks, ultimately contributing to the stability of the capital market and the protection of investor interests.

Speculative culture and corporate greenwashing: Evidence from China

As culture plays an important role in corporate decisions, this paper examines whether and how the culture of speculation affects corporate greenwashing. Using data of China's A-share listed companies over the period of 2010–2022 and data of provincial lottery sales as a proxy for speculative culture, we find that regional speculative culture positively affects corporate greenwashing. The effect is more pronounced among state-owned firms, firms with high managerial overconfidence and weak corporate governance, and firms located in low-level marketization and poor legal environment. Further, mechanism tests show that speculative culture increases cash flow volatility, agency costs, and managerial self-interest, through which corporate greenwashing is affected. This study adds to the literature on the determinants of corporate greenwashing from a perspective of informal institutions.

Managerial overconfidence, earnings management and the moderating role of business ethics: evidence from the Stoxx Europe 600

Managerial overconfidence, earnings management and the moderating role of business ethics: evidence from the Stoxx Europe 600

The role of managerial overconfidence in digital transformation and sustainable competitive performance in emerging SMEs: The role of digital culture

The role of managerial overconfidence in digital transformation and sustainable competitive performance in emerging <scp>SMEs</scp>: The role of digital culture

Does Corporate Reputation Still Affect the Cost of Equity in an Emerging Market? Evidence from Managerial Overconfidence

Purpose: This paper examines the relationship between corporate reputation, managerial overconfidence, and the cost of equity in the context of Vietnam - a fast-growing emerging market. Design/methodology/approach: The paper employs Pooled Ordinary Least Square, Fixed Effect Model and Random Effect Model to test the effects of corporate reputation and managerial overconfidence on the cost of equity on 391 non-financial Vietnamese listed firms during 2011 and 2020. In addition, Principal Component Analysis is also applied for calculating the corporate reputation score. Findings: The finding shows that firms with higher corporate reputation are associated with a lower cost of equity. The results also indicates that despite the insignificant relationship between managerial overconfidence and the cost of equity, firms operated by overconfident managers can promote the negative effect between corporate reputa-tion and the cost of equity. In addition, the more reputable corporates increase, the lower the cost of equity will be. Research limitations/implications: Firms in Vietnam can manage the cost of equity better. Furthermore, based on the managers' characteristics and the state of corporate reputation, investors can make appropriate investment decisions. Originality/value: Prior research shows that corporate reputation is negatively related to the implied cost of equity. However, in Vietnamese stock market, under managerial overconfidence, the association between corporate reputa-tion and the cost of equity is also greatly affected. Furthermore, changes in corporate reputation also have certain effects on the cost of equity, especially when corporate reputation is enhanced every year.

The effect of political connections on the relationship between managers’ personality traits and corporate social responsibility disclosure

Purpose Corporate social responsibility (CSR) might be among the primary factors ensuring any organization’s survival, and disclosing its related information is very important. This research initially investigates the effect of managers’ behavior characteristics, including overconfidence, myopia and narcissism and corporate political ties on the disclosure of CSR. This study also aims to assess the mediating impact of political connections on the association between managerial personality traits and CSR. Design/methodology/approach The research sample included 129 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2020. Behavioral managerers charecteristics. A multivariate regression method with combined data (firm-year) was used to test the research hypotheses. Findings The results show that overconfidence and managerial myopia cause the disclosure of CSR to decrease. Managers’ overconfidence and short-term attitudes lead to a decrease in the level of CSR activities of the companies and their disclosure, respectively, 0.021 and 0.025. However, the existence of narcissism in managers and having political ties by companies may lead to an increase in the disclosure of the CSR, respectively, around 0.089 and 0.02. Further findings also indicate that political connections may motivate narcissistic managers to increase CSR disclosure near 0.037. However, the results document no significant impact of political ties on the relationship between managerial overconfidence and myopia with CSR involvement. Research limitations/implications According to the findings, the authors recommend to stockholders that employing narcissistic managers and improving political connections might be two effective strategies to enhance the level of CSR engagement. One of the critical limitations of the current paper might be its generalizability. As Iran is an emerging and fossil fuel seller country, its institutional settings may significantly differ from those of developed and industrial nations. Thus, the readers of these nations must consider such an important issue. Originality/value For the first time, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research has investigated the moderating effect of political ties on the association between management behavioral characteristics and the level of fulfilling CSR by listed companies.

Managerial overconfidence and stock price crash risk

This study explores the effect of managerial overconfidence on the risk of a stock price crash. Results indicate that managerial overconfidence positively affects stock price crash risk. Importantly, internal controls can reduce this risk by curbing managerial overconfidence.

Executive Character and Financial Distress on Tax Avoidance with Manager’s Overconfidence as a Moderating Variable

Abstract Purpose - The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of executive character and financial distress on tax avoidance with manager overconfidence as a moderating variable. Design/methodology/approach - This study used a sample of BUMN Companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2017-2021. The data used in this study are financial statements and annual reports. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling, where from 38 BUMN companies, a sample of 10 companies was obtained for 5 years so that a total of 50 data samples were obtained. The analysis used is panel data regression analysis using fixed effect regression model data processed with the help of Eviews9 software. Findings - The results obtained show that simultaneously executive character and financial distress affect tax avoidance. The results obtained show partially that executive character affects tax avoidance, financial distress has no effect on tax avoidance. The results obtained also show that manager overconfidence is not able to moderate the effect of executive character and financial distress on tax avoidance.Research limitations/implications - The independent variables used in this research are only 2 factors, namely executive character and financial distress, as well as a moderating variable, namely manager overconfidence. This allows other factors that influence tax avoidance to be ignored. Keywords: Executive Character, Financial Distress, Tax Avoidance, and Manager Overconfidence