Tool For Conservation Management Research Articles

A New Aspect of Predator–Prey Dynamics: The Case of a Livestock Guardian Dog Predating upon an Invasive Coypu in Lake Kerkini, Greece

Invasive alien species frequently encounter limited natural predation pressure in their non-native ranges, which can contribute significantly to their unchecked proliferation and adverse ecological impacts. Here, we document a novel instance of a livestock guardian dog preying upon an adult coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Lake Kerkini, Greece—a significant observation given the coypu’s status as a prominent invasive species with few natural predators in Europe. The coypu’s presence in the region, coupled with the absence of effective predation among others, has allowed it to establish a robust population and exert considerable pressure on local ecosystems. This novel observation not only highlights an unusual predator–prey interaction involving a domestic mammal traditionally used for livestock management but also provides insights into understanding how domestic animals might inadvertently influence the dynamics of invasive species, potentially serving as a complementary tool in conservation management. By demonstrating that domestic dogs could play a role in controlling invasive species populations, our findings introduce a previously unconsidered aspect of invasive species management with conservation implications.

The impacts of fire vary among vertical strata: Responses of ant communities to long-term experimental burning.

Fire is a powerful tool for conservation management at a landscape scale, but a rigorous evidence base is often lacking for understanding its impacts on biodiversity in different biomes. Fire-induced changes to habitat openness have been identified as an underlying driver of responses of faunal communities, including for ants. However, most studies of the impacts of fire on ant communities consider only epigeic (foraging on the soil surface) species, which may not reflect the responses of species inhabiting other vertical strata. Here, we examine how the responses of ant communities vary among vertical strata in a highly fire-prone biome. We use a long-term field experiment to quantify the effects of fire on the abundance, richness, and composition of ant assemblages of four vertical strata (subterranean, leaf litter, epigeic, and arboreal) in an Australian tropical savanna. We first document the extent to which each stratum harbors distinct assemblages. We then assess how the assemblage of each stratum responds to three fire-related predictors: fire frequency, fire activity, and vegetation cover. Each stratum harbored a distinct ant assemblage and showed different responses to fire. Leaf litter and epigeic ants were most sensitive to fire because it directly affects their microhabitats, but they showed contrasting negative and positive responses, respectively. Subterranean ants were the least sensitive because of the insulating effects of soil. Our results show that co-occurring species of the same taxonomic group differ in the strength and direction of their response to fire depending on the stratum they inhabit. As such, effective fire management for biodiversity conservation should consider species in all vertical strata.

Distributions of non‐native and native plants are not determined by the same environmental factors

Abstract Global environmental change will cause shifts in species communities, with non‐native species likely replacing native ones at an unprecedented rate. This will have consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services, in addition to the ecological and economic damage caused by those non‐native species that are invasive. Understanding general patterns driving distributions of native and non‐native species is therefore vital, but no study has compared yet whether environmental variables that correlate with a species' presence differ between the two groups other than at local scale and often with very limited sample size. In this study, we focus on 141 native and non‐native congeneric plant species pairs at the scale of Switzerland. In the framework of correlative species distribution models, we used newly developed methods for efficient automated selection of a parsimonious number of predictor environmental variables to determine which ones, out of a large candidate set in eight classes, have the strongest explanatory power for both species groups. Our results indicated that variables influence the two groups in significantly different ways. Climate was by far the strongest determinant of both native and non‐native species distributions, although it had significantly more explanatory power in native species models. Models for non‐native species were significantly more influenced by anthropogenic factors, land use variables and forest cover. The presence of non‐native species was also associated with habitats with a significantly lower mean naturality value than native species. These findings provide novel empirical evidence for the different environmental factors driving native and non‐native plants' distributions and guidance for non‐native species management. Practical implications: species distribution models are an increasingly frequently advised tool for conservation management and our results provide guidelines on which covariates should be specifically considered to assess the habitat suitability of non‐native versus native species. The distributions of the former group of species are particularly important to research, as, in time, they may turn invasive. In addition, areas close to infrastructure should be scanned regularly for incipient colonizations by non‐native species, especially in as yet uninvaded areas, such as high mountains.

Cattle exclusion increases encounters of wild herbivores in Neotropical forests

Abstract Ongoing habitat loss and species extinctions require managers to implement and quantify the effectiveness of conservation actions for protecting biodiversity. Fencing, when done properly, is an important management tool for conservation in landscapes where wildlife and domestic animals co‐occur, potentially enhancing habitat use through selective exclusion of domestic species. For instance, the fencing of forest patches in the Neotropics is expected to reduce the degradation of understory vegetation by cattle, releasing these resources for the native community of browsers and fruit consumers. Here, we implemented an ecological experiment using a before‐after control‐impact design to quantify the effect of cattle exclusion on encounter probability of the native community of browsers and fruit consumers, and percent ground cover in multifunctional landscapes of the Colombian Orinoquía. We built 14 km of wildlife‐permeable fences along forest edges in four forest patches (i.e. blocks) containing control and fenced (treatment) sites. We installed 33 camera traps to obtain information about wildlife and cattle encounter probabilities, before and after the fences were constructed. We used Bayesian generalised linear mixed effects models to quantify the effect of fences via the interaction between the time period (before and after the fences were built) and treatment (control or fenced sites). Fencing was effective at reducing encounter probabilities of cattle in the treated sites, and it had a positive impact on relative encounter probabilities of four of seven studied wildlife species (herbivores including the black agouti [dry season only], lowland tapir [dry season only] and spotted paca [both seasons] and an omnivore, the South American coati [rainy season only]). The effect of fencing was negative for the collared peccary but only during the dry season. No statistically significant effect was detected for the white‐lipped peccary or white‐tailed deer. Synthesis and applications: We provide experimental evidence that fences are effective at selectively excluding cattle and increasing encounter rates of wild browsers and fruit consumers in forest patches where these species co‐occur with cattle. Our results highlight an important application of fencing ecology in Neotropical forests, where the implementation of wildlife‐permeable fences is feasible due to smaller body sizes of wildlife compared to domestic animals such as cattle.

Integrating aquatic species, assemblage, and habitat climate change vulnerabilities into a watershed-scale decision support framework

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a serious threat to ecological systems, particularly freshwater systems. As a result, climate adaptation planning is more common in natural resource management. Because conservation resources are limited, decision support tools can help managers prioritize actions. We created the Species and Habitat-based Ecological Decision Support tool (wtrSHEDS) for conservation managers by integrating two distinct indices: one biologically based on aquatic watershed-scale species assemblages and the other a habitat climate change vulnerability index. To do this, we evaluated 60 crayfish and fish species in West Virginia, USA, using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index under an A1B emissions scenario. The species vulnerability assessment results indicated that most species we assessed are vulnerable to climate change. Four species of fish and two species of crayfish had extremely high vulnerability due to their dependence on a specific hydrological cycle, sensitivity to barriers, and reproductive dependence on a thermal niche. Aggregating species at the watershed scale (8-digit hydrological unit code [HUC]) using an adapted weighted sum indicated which assemblages were the most and least vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, we created a unique habitat vulnerability index using the established Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies habitat vulnerability index and an index of land cover vulnerability from the Forecast Scenario model’s land cover change projections under the A1B emissions scenario to incorporate potential synergistic impacts of land use. Land cover projections were reclassified based on the assumption that developed land would have a higher potential to interact with climate change than forested lands synergistically. We combined the two habitat indices at the watershed scale (HUC 8) and performed a Hot Spot Analysis to 1) combine the assemblage and habitat vulnerability indices and 2) identify watersheds of conservation priority. This assessment methodology illustrates a means of identifying priority conservation areas in West Virginia that utilize pre-existing data, can be modified to suit management needs, and, therefore, one that managers across regions can readily apply to their system.

Diving deep into the network: Quantifying protection effects across California's marine protected area network using a remotely operated vehicle

AbstractNetworks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are being increasingly implemented worldwide as conservation management tools. We report here on MPA effectiveness using data from a 17‐year long remotely operated vehicle (ROV) monitoring program spanning mesophotic (~ 20–130 m) depths in 26 MPAs across California's MPA network. We utilize a spatial modeling approach that includes important environmental covariates as well as spatial dependence in the data, and allows the separation of statewide and regional trends in the abundance of focal species from additional trends specific to MPAs. We demonstrate that there have been statewide and/or regional recoveries in abundance for the majority of our 10 focal demersal fish species, with all four statewide species assessments and 18 out of 22 species‐region combinations assessed displaying positive trends. We also demonstrate that MPA protection has had an additional positive effect on the abundance of the majority of these focal species inside MPAs compared with reference areas, with positive effects for all four statewide species, and 18 out of 22 statewide/regions assessed showing positive effects, four showing no statistically detectable differences, and no negative MPA effects found. Comparisons with theoretical expectations of MPA recovery for our focal species showed that 2 out of 4 statewide, and 11 out of 17 species‐region combinations assessed displayed higher mean MPA effects than expected. Our results highlight strong trajectories of increasing abundance and additional MPA effects for many of our focal species, demonstrating that MPAs are having positive effects in mesophotic depths across the network as well as at previously reported shallower depths, and that image‐based platforms such as ROVs provide an important tool to support timely reporting on the effectiveness of MPA networks.

The future is here: an easy‐to‐use toolkit for integrating genetics into conservation management

AbstractOver the past decade, the development of genetic and genomic tools for conservation management has come forward in leaps and bounds. Once considered a ‘nice to have’, genetic data are fast becoming an essential tool for informing and managing translocations. However, due to the complexity of the field, easily using genetic data for decision‐making and monitoring remains beyond the reach of most managers and conservation biologists. In May 2020, we launched the Threatened Species Initiative (TSI), a programme designed to generate genomic resources for Australia's threatened species. Critical to the project is not only the generation of reference genomes and population genetic data but an online toolkit for conservation managers. The toolkit is a ‘one stop shop’ from collecting samples, to generating and analysing genetic data, to an easily interpretable genetic management report. A series of workflows and pipelines have been developed, including the TSI Biodiversity Portal, that uses point and click web interfaces to easily transfer raw sequence data and assemble genomes, transcriptomes and soon population genetics for management decisions. Here we present how the current toolkit works and provide case study examples for how it is being used to inform translocations and the management of threatened species.

Natural grazing by horses and cattle promotes bird diversity in a restored European alluvial grassland.

A challenge in grassland conservation is to maintain both the openness and the heterogeneity of the habitat to support the diversity of their animal communities, including birds-a taxon that is known to be sensitive to disturbance. An increasingly used management tool in European grassland conservation, especially in rewilding projects, is grazing by large herbivores such as horses and cattle. These grazers are believed to create and maintain patchy landscapes that promote diversity and richness of other species, but their influence on birds is often debated by conservationists, who raise concerns about the impact of disturbance by the grazers. Our aim was to examine the relationship between the abundance and species richness of birds across four foraging guilds and the area utilization patterns of Highland cattle and Konik horses in an alluvial grassland in France. We also aimed to examine the influence of land cover and season on the spatial distribution, including abundance and species richness, of different bird guilds present in the grazed area. We used GPS-collars on all grazers and recorded their positions on an hourly basis over a study period of 1.5 years, assessing patterns of area usage. We counted birds weekly along three transects to describe their distribution within the grazed area and carried out land-cover surveys to describe the habitat. To assess how species richness and abundance of birds of different guilds were related to grazer density, season, and habitat characteristics, we used GAMM models in a spatially explicit framework. We also compared bird numbers at our main study site with a nearby non-grazed control area. The number of birds in the grazed area was about twice the number in the non-grazed control area. Within the grazed area, the abundance of open-area foraging birds increased with increasing grazer density. The number of woodland-foraging birds was also positively correlated with grazer density but less so than open-area foraging birds. The number of individuals in the aerial and wetland bird guilds was not correlated with the density of grazers. Most bird species and individuals were observed on open landscapes scattered with woody patches and waterbodies, and on areas with moderate grazer density. Low-intensity grazing represents a potentially important management tool in creating heterogeneity in alluvial grasslands, thereby promoting suitable habitat for a diverse assemblage of bird species.

Shelter Capacity of Artificial Reefs for Sea Cucumber Apostichopus japonicas Is Influenced by Water Flow and Food Resources in Laboratory Experiments

Artificial reefs have been advocated and implemented as management tools for aquaculture, species conservation and habitat replacement. However, the shelter capacity of artificial reefs and its influencing factors are still not well understood. In this study, we identified factors that may limit the shelter capacity of artificial reefs for sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicas) with a laboratory experiment. We investigated how water flow and food availability affect the shelter capacity and conducted shelter utilization experiments to determine whether sea cucumber sheltering behavior was density dependent. The results revealed that shelter capacity of artificial reefs in high velocity is significantly higher than that of artificial reefs in low velocity or no velocity. The artificial reefs that were provided food had significantly higher shelter capacity than those that did not have food. The densities did not affect the sheltering capacity of artificial reefs in the laboratory experiment. There was a logarithmic relationship between the shelter capacity and shelter availability assessed by the exposed surface area of the artificial reefs. In conclusion, abundant food resources and high water flow may have a positive effect on the shelter capacity of artificial reefs.

Assessing the Conservation Value of Artificial and Natural Reefs via Ichthyoplankton Spatio-Temporal Dynamics

The distribution of fish eggs and larvae (ichthyoplankton) reflects spawning and nursery areas as well as dispersal routes. This study’s goal is to demonstrate how the identification of ichthyoplankton species and stages and their spatial distribution among natural reefs (NRs) and artificial reefs (ARs) may serve as decision-making tools in conservation and fishery management. Natural reefs exhibited an eight-times higher abundance of eggs, as well as the highest abundance of larvae in the yolk-sac and preflexion phases. In contrast, ARs had the highest abundance of larvae in the flexion and postflexion phases. Natural reefs may serve as breeding grounds for Scaridae, Labridae, and Mugilidae; whereas, ARs may serve as breeding sites for Lutjanidae, Synodontidae, Carangidae, Fistularidae, and Haemulidae. Our study revealed differences between ARs and NRs, which demonstrate the potential of artificial reefs to expand the supply and settlement options of reef fishes and consequently can lead to increased fish production with potential benefits to adjacent fishing areas through connectivity. Thus, ARs as no-take sites can be effective tools for both fishery management and biodiversity conservation. The findings highlight the potential use of ichthyoplankton tools and the importance of considering both types of reefs in marine conservation and management efforts.

Sea turtle density surface models along the United States Atlantic coast

Spatially explicit estimates of marine species distribution and abundance are required to quantify potential impacts from human activities such as military training and testing, fisheries interactions, and offshore energy development. There are 4 protected species of sea turtle (loggerhead, green, Kemp’s ridley, and leatherback) commonly found along the east coast of the USA, our study area, and which require impact assessments. Data from 7 different survey organizations were used to create density surface models for the 4 sea turtle species utilizing 1.2 million km of line-transect surveys. A substantial portion (29.7%) of available sightings were not identified to the species level. Not including these sightings would underestimate density, so a conditional random forest model was used to assign unidentified sightings to species. Higher densities of loggerhead, green, and Kemp’s ridley sea turtles were predicted south of the Outer Banks in cool months, transitioning northwards in late spring to occupy seasonal neritic habitats. The highest leatherback densities were predicted off the coasts of Georgia and Florida. Leatherbacks were also predicted throughout offshore areas. The predicted distribution patterns generally matched satellite tracking and strandings data, indicating the models reproduced established seasonal movements. Surveys rarely detect sea turtles smaller than 40 cm, so these age classes are not represented. The models are the first for the study area to apply availability bias estimates developed in or near the study area and attempt to classify unidentified sightings to the species level, providing an updated, critical tool for conservation management along the eastern seaboard.

Morphological and Habitat Quality of Salmonid Streams and their Relationship with Fish-Based Indices in Aotearoa New Zealand and Ontario (Canada).

Habitat degradation is one of the major reasons for freshwater species decline. Hydrogeomorphological processes (such as sediment transport, bank erosion, and flooding) operate at the catchment scale and determine habitat features in river reaches. However, habitat quality indices and restoration for freshwater fish species are often implemented at small spatial scales of a few hundred metres. The Morphological Quality Index (MQI) considers fluvial processes at larger scales as well as channel forms, human impacts, and historical changes, but few studies have assessed its relevance for ecosystem health. We investigated relationships between the MQI, habitat quality (using the Qualitative Habitat Evaluation Index, QHEI), land cover, and fish metrics (number of fish species, index of biotic integrity (IBI), and trout biomass) in 26 salmonid streams in Aotearoa New Zealand and Southern Ontario, Canada. We found a significant correlation between the MQI and QHEI, and both metrics were correlated with urban and native forest proportion in the catchment. However, we found no relation between the MQI and the proportion of agricultural land in the catchment, while the QHEI was correlated with agricultural land in the riparian zone, highlighting the importance of vegetated riparian buffers in providing fish habitat. Establishing a strong correlation with fish metrics remains challenging. Nevertheless, a modified MQI targeting ecological health could be used as an effective management tool for aquatic conservation.

Integral Management Zones: A novel strategy for marine bivalve production in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Abstract The development of area‐based tools that combine fishing, aquaculture and repopulation practices is increasingly necessary and important to conserve ecosystems, promote sustainable use of marine resources and contribute to the well‐being of the people that rely on them. In the Gulf of California, Mexico, two small‐scale fishers' cooperatives were granted a Permit for Exploratory Aquaculture of bivalve species, and their members decided to set three zones within those concessions: (i) a zone for natural seed collection and repopulation, (ii) a no‐take zone and (iii) an area where fishing was allowed. This management arrangement, named by them as the Integral Management Zone (Zona de Manejo Integral), was conceived as an innovative alternative to the current policy tools available in the Mexican General Law for Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture. The natural collection of bivalve larvae in the artificial collectors was sufficient to allow the development of the repopulation project. Based on hydrodynamic models of larval dispersal, self‐recruitment was low, and the collection of seed depended on distant sources. The broader scale (regional) connectivity source–sink patterns should be considered in the design stages of the Integral Management Zones. The implementation of the Integral Management Zones can complement other conservation and fisheries management tools available in Mexican environmental and fisheries laws. The approach envisioned to implement this tool is participative, with a meaningful role of local fishers in the decisions concerning the use of these zones, with a supportive engagement of governmental and other stakeholders (e.g., academia and civil society organizations).

What is the risk of overcollecting for translocation? An opportunistic assessment of a wingless grasshopper

AbstractTranslocation is an increasingly used tool in conservation management, but there is a risk that source populations are overcollected. The risk depends critically on the detection probability and the source population size. We quantified this risk for a wingless grasshopper population in a patch of remnant habitat in suburban Melbourne that was condemned to be cleared for housing development. We collected ∼2000 grasshoppers in five samples spread over 1 month and used the results to estimate the initial population size (∼3400) with high confidence. Despite our perception of substantially depleting the population, we removed only an estimated 60%, and this relatively high fecundity (∼50 eggs per lifetime) annual species had recovered by the following year to near its original density. Wild‐to‐wild translocation is likely to be a low‐cost and effective strategy in the conservation of many invertebrates, and our findings highlight the feasibility of using natural source populations.

Stationary distribution of a stochastic reaction–diffusion predator–prey model with additional food and fear effect

Providing additional food supplements to predators is one of the crucial and effective tools for biological conservation and pest management, which has been widely recognized and validated by theoretical and experimental scientists. This paper focuses on the existence and uniqueness of stationary distribution of a stochastic reaction–diffusion predator–prey model that incorporates additional food for predator and fear effect for prey. It reveals that spatial diffusion is beneficial for maintaining the steady state of the model, whereas environment white noise has a negative effect.

An ensemble approach to species distribution modelling reconciles systematic differences in estimates of habitat utilization and range area

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are an important tool for conservation and resource management. However, managers are often interested in derived quantities such as range or area occupied, and how these are calculated can have a large impact. Ecosystem‐based management typically requires spatial information about species distributions, which is increasingly generated from SDMs that are then processed to identify occupied habitat. Many types of SDMs exist, but there is little research regarding how this model‐choice affects outcomes when defining occupied habitat, in part because these models generate different types of output. We fit a suite of five SDMs to data for 208 species/life stage combinations in three marine ecosystems while ensuring that they all estimate a ‘common currency’ of numerical abundance. We then calculate out‐of‐sample predictive performance to weight these constituents in an ensemble SDM. Results show that this approach can reduce bias arising from a priori specification of individual SDMs resulting in a better fit to survey data (constituent SDMs had a median of 7% higher RMSE). The SDMs had a range of responses relative to the ensemble, with MaxEnt typically predicting a median 1.3% higher area occupied, and negative‐binomial GAMs predicting 21.4% lower area occupied. Two potential methods of identifying the area of occupied habitat from SDM outputs are compared—probability‐based and cumulative density‐based methods. We find that cumulative densities result in smaller estimates of area occupied, and we recommend careful consideration of how model‐choice affects occupied‐habitat estimates in spatial management. Policy implications: Finally, we discuss how the patterns identified during the 5‐year Review of Essential Fish Habitat for Alaska should be carefully considered by managers using SDMs to identify habitat that may be impacted by anthropogenic activities.

A Snapshot into the Lives of Elephants: Camera Traps and Conservation in Etosha National Park, Namibia

Knowledge of elephant movement and grouping patterns in the wild is critical for their management and conservation. Much of these data come from GPS collar data and aerial surveys, which have provided invaluable information, but data from these methods are often limited to small groups or entire populations. Effective elephant management requires both generalized and localized methodologies. Here, we propose the expanded use of camera traps in research relating to elephant localized movements and grouping patterns as an additional tool for elephant conservation management. In this study, we use a battery-powered camera trap to provide daily high-resolution data of African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana) grouping patterns over the course of an entire year. We present findings on the seasonal and diurnal grouping patterns of elephants at a waterhole in the northeast corner of Etosha National Park from July 2016 to June 2017. The frequency of elephant occurrences varied seasonally and diurnally across all group types (solitary male, male, family, and mixed groups), while group sizes did not vary seasonally, except for male groups. Solitary males occurred relatively equally throughout the day, while male and mixed groups occurred the most midday, and family groups occurred the most in the afternoon. Additionally, we measured the reliability of research assistants when collecting group type and group size data from the camera trap images. Intra- and inter-observer reliability was excellent among and across research assistants, highlighting the potential for non-specialist observers to have greater involvement in camera trap data collection. Our results support the use of camera trap data where GPS collars and aerial surveys are not feasible and where higher-resolution data are needed for more localized management. Finally, we discuss our experience with two different types of camera traps to highlight the pros and cons of each approach.

BatTool: projecting bat populations facing multiple stressors using a demographic model

Bats provide ecologically and agriculturally important ecosystem services but are currently experiencing population declines caused by multiple environmental stressors, including mortality from white-nose syndrome and wind energy development. Analyses of the current and future health and viability of these species may support conservation management decision making. Demographic modeling provides a quantitative tool for decision makers and conservation managers to make more informed decisions, but widespread adoption of these tools can be limited because of the complexity of the mathematical, statistical, and computational components involved in implementing these models. In this work, we provide an exposition of the BatTool R package, detailing the primary components of the matrix projection model, a publicly accessible graphical user interface (https://rconnect.usgs.gov/battool) facilitating user-defined scenario analyses, and its intended uses and limitations (Wiens et al., US Geol Surv Data Release 2022; Wiens et al., US Geol Surv Softw Release 2022). We present a case study involving wind energy permitting, weighing the effects of potential mortality caused by a hypothetical wind energy facility on the projected abundance of four imperiled bat species in the Midwestern United States.

Vegetation patch dynamics in rangelands: How feedbacks between large herbivores, vegetation and soil fauna alter patches over space and through time

AbstractAimLarge herbivore grazing is a popular conservation management tool to promote vegetation structural diversity of rangelands. However, vegetation patch dynamics, that is, how patches of grazing‐defended tall vegetation and grazer‐preferred short lawns shift over space and time, is poorly understood. Here, we describe a new conceptual framework for patch dynamics within rangelands, combining theories of classical cyclical succession, self‐organization and multitrophic feedbacks between grazers, vegetation and bioturbating soil fauna.LocationWe use the cattle‐grazed salt marsh of the island Schiermonnikoog, The Netherlands, as a model system. The grazed salt marsh is characterized by distinct tall vegetation patches dominated by the grazing‐defended rush Juncus maritimus and grazing‐intolerant grass Elytrigia atherica, surrounded by a matrix of grazing lawn (dominated by Festuca rubra).The FrameworkBased on previous observational and experimental studies, we propose a cyclical patch dynamic where plant species composition and structure transitions through four phases: patch initiation (a) occurs when the grazing‐defended rush J. maritimus establishes in the grazed lawn. Patch establishment (b) follows when the grazing‐intolerant grass E. atherica establishes in the patch due to associational defence by J. maritimus and produces a large amount of litter that attracts the key bioturbating amphipod Orchestia gammarellus. Patch expansion (c) occurs when O. gammarellus activities improve soil properties of the patch, which favours E. atherica growth, leading to E. atherica competitively displacing J. maritimus in the centre of the patch. Patch degeneration (d) follows when cattle enter the enlarged patch to consume E. atherica in the centre, trample the soil, displace O. gammarellus and decrease vegetation cover, opening space for grazing‐lawn species to invade. The cycle restarts when remnants of the rush J. maritimus in the degenerated patches (or individuals recently established from seed dispersal) initiate new patches in the grazing lawn.SynthesisOur proposed patch‐dynamic model provides a means to describe the mechanisms driving vegetation patch dynamics and serves as a foundation for further experimental and observational exploration, not only for this specific system, but more generally for grazed systems worldwide that show patches of typical grazing‐defended and grazer‐preferred vegetation.

Predicting climate change impacts on critical fisheries species in Fijian marine systems and its implications for protected area spatial planning

AbstractAimSpatially explicit protections of coastal habitats determined on the current distribution of species and ecosystems risk becoming obsolete in 100 years if the movement of species ranges outpaces management action. Hence, a critical step of conservation is predicting the efficacy of management actions in future. We aimed to determine how foundational, habitat‐building species will respond to climate change in Fiji.LocationThe Republic of Fiji.MethodsWe develop species distribution models (SDMs) using MaxEnt, General Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees and publicly available data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to predict changes in distribution of suitable habitat for mangrove forests, coral habitat, seagrass meadows and critical fisheries invertebrates under several IPCC climate change scenarios in 2070 or 2100. We then overlay predicted distribution models onto existing Fijian protected area network to assess whether today's conservation measures will afford protection to tomorrow's distributions.ResultsWe found that mangrove suitability is projected to decrease along the Coral Coast and increase northward towards the Yasawa Islands due to precipitation changes. The response of seagrass meadows was predicted to be inconsistent and dependent on the climate scenario. Meanwhile, suitability for coral reefs was not predicted to decline significantly overall. The mangrove crab Scylla serrata, an important resource for fisherwomen in Fiji, is projected to increase in habitat suitability while economically important sea cucumber species will have highly variable responses to climate change.Main conclusionsSpecies distribution models are a critical tool for conservation managers, as linking spatial distribution data with future climate change scenarios can aid in the creation and resiliency of protected area programmes. New protected area designations should consider the future distribution of species to maximize benefits to those taxa.