Male Homicide Rates Research Articles

Population-Level Alcohol Consumption and Homicide Rates in Latin America: A Fixed Effects Panel Analysis, 1961-2019.

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) possesses 8 per cent of the global population but approximately one-third of global homicides. The region also exhibits high per capita alcohol consumption, risky drinking patterns and a heterogeneous mix of beverage preferences. Despite this, LAC violence receives limited attention in the English-language literature and there are no studies of the population-level alcohol-homicide association in the region. We examined the effects on total, male and female homicide rates of total and beverage-specific alcohol consumption (22 nations, 1961-2019) and of risky drinking patterns (20 nations, 2005 and 2010). We collected homicide and alcohol data from the World Health Organization. Panel fixed effects models showed (1) per capita total and wine consumption were positively associated with total, male and female homicide rates, though effects were much stronger for males, (2) per capita beer consumption was positively associated with total and male homicide rates, (3) per capita spirits consumption was not associated with homicide rates, and (4) nations with riskier drinking patterns had higher total, male and female homicide rates than those with less risky drinking patterns.

Gênero, Raça, Desigualdades Sociais e Território como Fatores Relacionados a Homicídios de Crianças Brasileiras: Uma Análise Ecológica de 2014 a 2018

The article aims to analyze the homicides of Brazilian children aged 0 to 14 years from 2014 to 2018. The methodology included an ecological time series study, in which child murders were analyzed according to the following variables: region, state, age, sex, race/color, place of death, causes of death, human development index (HDI) and Gini coefficient. Data analysis was performed using SPSS® and QGIS software. As a result, we point out that the proportional homicide rate among children aged 0 to 14 in Brazil is 2.07 homicides per100,000 children, with higher rates in the North region (3.02/100,000), in the state of Roraima (19.34 /100,000) and Indigenous race/ethnicity (15.68/100,000). Regarding the causes of homicide, the most prevalent was the shooting of firearms (58.84%). The results also show that the male homicide rate, in addition to its correlations with the rate by state, showed a very strong association with age with 86% for the age group from 10 to 14 years (p<0.001; rs=0.928). It also showed a strong correlation with mixed race/color, 80% (p<0.001; rs=0.893), and a moderate correlation of 43% with the Gini index (p<0.001; rs=0.658). Conclusion: Male gender, mixed race, states in the North, Northeast and Central­West regions and higher values in the Gini index appear as factors of association with higher child homicide rates in Brazil, confirming the country's inequality issues as greater risks to life.

Lethal violence against women in southern Brazil: Spatial analysis and associated factors

Objectiveestimate the risk for the occurrence of lethal violence against women and to identify the associated factors in the state of Paraná. Methodecological study of deaths of women aged between 15 and 59 years, victims of aggression. The units of analysis were the cities of Paraná. Latent Bayesian Gaussian models with negative binomial probability distribution were used. The modeling considered intercept, spatial random effects and covariates, performed with the deterministic Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations approach. ResultsThere was a positive association between lethal violence against women and the percentage of mothers who were heads of households. Finally, male homicide rates, rates of non-lethal violence against women and the cities with women mayors and councilors were also associated. ConclusionThis type of violence was associated with low education, structural violence and the participation of women in politics.

Rural-urban, age, and gender disparities and trends in suicide and homicide: Multistate evidence across 12 years.

Few studies have simultaneously assessed age and gender trends in homicide and suicide across the rural-urban continuum. Herein, we examine geographic and demographic trends in suicide and homicide death rates by: (1) determining overall macro and disaggregated trends; (2) examining differences in trends based on rural-urban county classification; and (3) identifying differences in stratified trends among age and gender classifications. A retrospective study design used suicide and homicide data (n = 199,456) from years 2005to 2017 across 16 US states. Suicide and homicide deaths were grouped by age, gender, and rural-urban classification for descriptive analyses, and trends were analyzed using Joinpoint trend analysis software. Violence resulted in 142,470 suicide and 56,986 homicide deaths between 2005 and 2017. Among both males and females, overall macro trends of suicide and homicide rates generally increased with greater rurality, and trends in rural rates differed from those in nonrural areas. Joinpoint trend analysis revealed significant increases in male suicide rates in large metropolitan (1.66%), micropolitan (1.78%), and rural areas (1.77%); female suicide rates in large metropolitan (2.17%), small metropolitan (3.25%), and micropolitan areas (3.26%); male homicide rates in large metropolitan areas (10.19%); and female homicide rates in rural areas (8.29%). Finally, when stratified by age, several significant trends were found, including increases in suicide rates among females aged 64 and older in rural areas (11.71%). Heterogeneous trends were found in suicide and homicide rates within specific rural-urban, age, and gender subgroups. Prevention efforts should proactively target those subgroups identified herein as most at-risk of violence.

The perfect storm. An analysis of the processes that increase lethal violence in Mexico after 2006.

Research on ‘the War on Drugs’ in Mexico finds that military interventions increase lethal violence in the country. However, these studies fail to account for other processes that may be driving the behavior of lethal violence in the Mexican municipalities. We find confirmation that these rival processes influence the relative impact that military interventions have on lethal violence. In particular, we find that seasonality in violence, competition for scarce resources and PAN’s governance in the municipalities are associated with higher levels of lethal violence, as measured by the young male homicide rate. We argue that the literature may have overestimated the effect that military interventions have in lethal violence in municipalities and that other drivers of violence should be taken into account to accurately measure the impact that military interventions have on lethal violence.

Spatial-temporal patterns of homicide in socioeconomically deprived settings: violence in Alagoas, Brazil, 2006‒2015

ABSTRACT Background Homicide presents a significant health burden globally, but geographical differences in homicide rates necessitate focussed analyses of spatial and temporal patterns, particularly in affected areas. The highest rates are concentrated in regions in Central and South America, but analyses of sub-regional patterns and sex-specific differences may yield important information for addressing the upstream causes of homicide at the community level. Objective This study examines and presents spatial and temporal patterns of homicide victims from 2006 to 2015 in the state of Alagoas, Brazil, focussing on the municipality scale and differentiated by victims’ sex. Methods Data comprising victims’ age, sex, the date, time, and the municipality of the homicide incident were acquired from the Brazilian National Mortality Information System. These data were aggregated by municipality, and we made quantitative comparisons of sex-specific homicide rates between the capital city of Macieó metropolitan region and the peripheral, predominantly rural regions. Empirical Local Bayes methods were used to adjust per-capita homicide risk estimates and map the results. Results A total of 19,560 homicides occurred during the study period, with an average of 60.4 per 100,000 inhabitants; the metropolitan region rate was 81.8, compared to 46.5 for the remaining regions. The male homicide rate was 115.9 per 100,000, compared to 7.1 for females. Empirical Local Bayes mapping showed strong clustering of male homicide risk in specific cities near the capital, while female risk was more dispersed throughout the region. Conclusions The risk of male victim homicide observed for the metropolitan region of Alagoas was amongst the highest globally, particularly during the period 2012–2014. Geographical differences in male and female risk may indicate differences in risk factors and highlight a need for prevention programmes that take into account gender-specific pathways of violence.

Effect of firearms legislation on suicide and homicide in Canada from 1981 to 2016.

Canada implemented a series of laws regulating firearms including background and psychological screening, licensing, and training in the years 1991, 1994, and 2001. The effects of this legislation on suicide and homicide rates were examined over the years 1981 to 2016. Models were constructed using difference-in-difference analysis of firearms and non firearms death rates from 1981 to 2016. In addition, negative binomial regression was used to test for an association between rates of suicide by Canadian Province and firearms prevalence, using licensing rates as a proxy for prevalence. No associated benefit from firearms legislation on aggregate rates of male suicide was found. In men aged 45 to 59 an associated shift from firearms suicide after 1991 and 1994 to an increase in hanging resulted in overall rate ratios of 0.994 (95%CI, 0.978,1.010) and 0.993 (95%CI, 0.980,1.005) respectively. In men 60 and older a similar effect was seen after 1991, 1994, and 2001, that resulted in rate ratios of 0.989 (95%CI, 0.971,1.008), 0.994 (95%CI, 0.979,1.010), and 1.010 (95%CI, 0.998,1.022) respectively. In females a similar effect was only seen after 1991, rate ratio 0.983 (95%CI, 0.956,1.010). No beneficial association was found between legislation and female or male homicide rates. There was no association found with firearm prevalence rates per province and provincial suicide rates, but an increased association with suicide rates was found with rates of low income, increased unemployment, and the percentage of aboriginals in the population. In conclusion, firearms legislation had no associated beneficial effect on overall suicide and homicide rates. Prevalence of firearms ownership was not associated with suicide rates. Multifaceted strategies to reduce mortality associated with firearms may be required such as steps to reduce youth gang membership and violence, community-based suicide prevention programs, and outreach to groups for which access to care may be a particular issue, such as Aboriginals.

The Relative Risk of Intimate Partner and Other Homicide Victimization by State-Level Gender Inequity in the United States, 2000–2017

Abstract The objective of this study was to investigate whether state-level gender inequity is associated with state-level intimate partner homicide rates (IPHR), male homicide rates, female homici...

Homicide pattern among adolescents: A national epidemiological study of child homicide in South Africa.

BackgroundLarge numbers of young people die yearly due to homicide, but little is known about homicide during adolescence. Research primarily focuses on youth violence among young men and masks important gender-related factors inherent in the adolescent age group. Although young women are less likely to be victims of homicide, violence against women is an important form of violence experienced during adolescence. In this paper, we describe the prevalence of and gender difference in adolescent homicide in South Africa in 2009.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective national mortuary-based study to identify all child homicides (boys and girls < 18 years) in 2009 in a proportionate sample of mortuaries. Victim, perpetrator and crime data were collected in three phases: cases were identified from the mortuary register, the autopsy report and from police interviews. In this paper we focus on the adolescent group, aged 10 to 17 years.FindingsWe identified 674 (95% CI: 520–823) adolescent homicides for 2009, with more male (520) than female (154) homicides. This gender disparity increased as children aged, with the male homicide rate 27.9/100 000 population (95% CI: 20.3–35.5), nearly 5 times the female rate (4.5:1) of 6.5/ 100 000 population (95% CI: 4.7–8.2) in older adolescents (15–17 year old). Adolescent males were significantly more likely (61.2%) to die in a public space compared to female adolescents (39.3%) but more adolescent females (48.4%) died at home compared to adolescent males (32.9%). Adolescent females (42.1%) were mainly killed by a family member or intimate partner while adolescent males were predominantly (58%) killed by an acquaintance.ConclusionWe found a distinct gender pattern for adolescent homicide in South Africa. This pattern appears to be driven by gender norms that support violence. South Africa requires an investment in developing evidence informed interventions to reduce violence.

Indigenous homicide in Brazil: geospatial mapping and secondary data analysis (2010 to 2014).

This study aimed to describe a panorama of Indigenous homicide in Brazil, analysing the main characteristics and territorial distribution between 2010 and 2014. Demographic study of Indigenous population data obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and Indigenous homicide data (2010-2014) from the Ministry of Health. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, victims' characteristics, type of homicides and geographical distribution, which were then plotted on maps using ArcGIS. Findings revealed: 1) a national estimated average of Indigenous homicide rate of 22.5 per 100,000 Indigenous inhabitants per year; 2) a map showing where homicides were registered and the mean homicide rates for Brazilian regions and states, with highest rates in Roraima and Mato Grosso do Sul; 3) the main homicide method were sharp or penetrating objects; 4) Indigenous male homicide rate was 2.4 times higher than female, but Indigenous female rate was more than double that of non-Indigenous; 5) high homicide rates of Indigenous children (under 1-year-old) in areas of the states of Roraima and Amazonas. We advise careful consideration of Indigenous cultural beliefs to avoid errors of judgement, reflecting how Indigenous populations are at risk of homicide in some areas.

Educational Attainment of Male Homicide Victims Aged 18 to 24 Years in Chicago: 2006 to 2015.

Homicide is a preventable public health issue that has detrimental effects on both victims and witnesses and increases health care costs. From 2006 to 2015, homicide has been the second leading cause of death for youth aged 15 to 24 years in the United States. Educational attainment has been widely regarded as a protective factor against justice system involvement and violent injury. We conducted a time-trend analysis examining educational attainment levels for male victims of homicide aged 18 to 24 years in the City of Chicago, 2006 to 2015, to describe the educational attainment of youth homicide victims in Chicago. We used data from the Illinois Violent Death Reporting System and the United States Census Bureau from 2006 to 2015. Cases included male victims of homicide, 18 to 24 years of age, the injury leading to death occurred in the City of Chicago, injury leading to death occurred between 2006 and 2015, and whether or not a high school degree or equivalent had been obtained. Data were described over time using percentages and rates per 100,000 with 95% confidence intervals. Chicago male homicide victims aged 18 to 24 years were less likely to have at least a high school degree than the general population of males aged 18 to 24 years in Chicago. The homicide rate for males aged 18 to 24 years without a high school degree was significantly higher than those with a high school degree or equivalent for every time point, except 2007, and also in four of the seven Chicago Planning Regions when compared with the other three. We found there is a concentrated risk pool for undereducated male youth in Chicago.

Population Drinking and Homicide Rate in Russia

Background: Although high homicide rate in Russia has been discussed widely, current literature seems to lack a consistent understanding of this phenomenon. Objective: The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis of the close aggregate level link between alcohol drinking and homicide deaths in Russia. Method: Age-standardized sex-specific male and female homicide mortality data for the period 1970 to 2013 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time series analysis. Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female homicide rate: a 1 liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in an 11.3% increase in the male homicide rate and in 10.7% increase in the female homicide rate. The results of the analysis suggest that 78.9% of all male homicide deaths and 77.2% female homicide deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol. Conclusions: The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol is a major contributor to the homicide rate in Russian Federation. These findings have important implications as regards violent mortality prevention indicating that a restrictive alcohol policy can be considered as an effective measure of prevention in countries where higher rate of alcohol consumption and binge drinking pattern.

Teasing out the effects of macro-conditions on race-specific male homicide rates: Do distinct predictors vary by racial group and over time?

Researchers tend to capture the multiple disadvantages facing urban areas by using an all-encompassing disadvantage index, which combines poverty, joblessness and other economic predictors into a single index. While the use of this index is important for conceptual and methodological reasons, questions remain about whether these city characteristics differ in magnitude and significance when influencing race-specific homicide rates and whether or not there effects exhibit stability or vary over time? This article examines how discrete measures of disadvantage differ in their importance for race-specific groups over three critical time points: 1980, 1990, and 2000. After accounting for problems associated with statistical inferences, cross sectional, Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) analyses reveal that family disruption and poverty status were among the strongest predictors of race-specific homicide rates. Wald tests for the equality of coefficients confirmed significant differences in the influence of many discrete measures of disadvantage for white and black males, but the number of differences declined from 1980 and into the 2000s. That is, along with the crime drop, our research reveals increasing racial parity in structural predictors over time.

Mortalidad por homicidios en México: tendencias, variaciones socio-geográficas y factores asociados

This study seeks to analyze the trend of homicide rates (total and by firearm) in Mexico between 1990 and 2009 and identify the variables that best explain the geographical variations of these rates in the 2008-2009 two-year period. Homicide rates, adjusted for age, were calculated for both sexes between 1990 and 2009 and for each state in 2008-2009. Factors associated with the interstate variations in the homicide rates were identified using multiple linear regression analysis. Results show that the homicide rate in Mexico decreased between 1990 and 2007, but doubled over the last two years (from 7.6 to 16.6 per 100,000). In 2009, the male homicide rate was almost 9 times higher than the female rate and about two-thirds of homicides involved firearms. Multivariate analysis reveals that impunity, drug trafficking, alcohol and drug consumption and school dropout in basic education - in that order - are key factors for understanding the geographical variations in homicide rates in Mexico in 2008-2009. Findings suggest that to reduce the number of homicide victims and spatial variations in the rate, it is necessary not only to fight the drug cartels, but above all to implement structural reforms in the criminal justice system and reduce the socioeconomic disparities among states.

Population drinking and homicide in Australia: A time series analysis of the period 1950–2003

Despite a significant amount of research on alcohol and homicide in Australia, as yet there has been no study of the association at the aggregate level to reveal where Australia fits in with respect to the cultural differences found in the international research of this association. Aims. To analyse the temporal association between population drinking and homicide in Australia and to put the results in an international comparative perspective. Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series analysis, overall and gender-specific homicide rates from 1950 to 2003 were analysed in relation to alcohol consumption overall as well as to different beverages. A one-litre increase in per capita consumption was followed by an 8% increase in overall and male homicide rates and a 6% increase in female homicide rates. The effect was mainly driven by beer consumption. In a comparative perspective, the importance of population drinking was similar to what has been found in Western Europe. Conclusions. Australia belongs to the group of countries where lowering population drinking is likely to be associated with lower homicide rates and reducing beer consumption seems to be the most efficient way to achieve this.

P1-432 Violence and health: an epidemiological analysis of homicides in MÉxico, 1979–2008

IntroductionThis study seeks to analyse the trend of homicide rate in México in last 30 years by age, gender and mechanism of death and identify the socioeconomic variables that better...

The effects of beverage type on homicide rates in Russia, 1970–2005

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS. Previous research from Western Europe and North America has suggested that consuming different types of alcoholic beverage may have differing effects on homicide rates both within and between countries. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between the consumption of different beverage types and homicide rates in Russia across the later-Soviet and post-Soviet periods. Age-standardised male and female homicide data for the period 1970-2005 and data on beverage-specific alcohol sales were obtained from the Russian State Statistical Committee (Rosstat). Time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average modelling) was used to examine the relation between the sale (consumption) of different alcoholic beverages and homicide rates. Total alcohol consumption and vodka consumption as measured by sales were significantly associated with both male and female homicide rates: a 1L increase in overall alcohol sales would result in a 5.9% increase in the male homicide rate and a 5.1% increase in the female homicide rate. The respective figures for vodka were 16.4% and 14.3%. The consumption of beer and wine was not associated with changes in homicide rates. Our findings suggest that the consumption of distilled spirits has had an especially detrimental impact on lethal violence in Russia from at least 1970 onwards. In order to reduce homicide rates in this context, alcohol policy should focus on reducing overall consumption as well as attempting to shift the beverage preference away from distilled spirits.

The Latino adolescent male mortality peak revisited: attribution of homicide and motor vehicle crash death

ObjectiveThe Latino Epidemiologic Paradox describes favourable health profiles for Latinos compared to non-Latino whites despite poverty, low education, and low access to healthcare. The objective of this study was to...

Reducing Homicide Risk in Indianapolis between 1997 and 2000

Rates of homicide risk are not evenly distributed across the US population. Prior research indicates that young males in disadvantaged urban neighborhoods are particularly vulnerable to lethal violence. The traditional criminal justice response to violent crime in the urban context has the potential to exacerbate problems, particularly when broad-based arrest sweeps and general deterrence initiatives are the standard models used by law enforcement. Recent studies suggest that alternative intervention approaches that use both specific deterrence combined with improving pro-social opportunities has shown promise in reducing violent crime in these high-risk contexts. This paper examines the changes in homicide patterns for the highest-risk populations in Indianapolis after a "pulling levers" intervention was implemented in the late 1990s to address youth, gang, and gun violence. Multilevel growth curve regression models controlling for a linear trend over time, important structural correlates of homicide across urban neighborhoods, and between-neighborhood variance estimates showed that homicide rates involving the highest-risk populations (i.e., actors 15 to 24 years old) were most likely to experience a statistically significant and substantive reduction after the intervention was implemented (IRR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.29 - 0.78). Among male actors in this age range, Black male homicide rates (IRR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.25 - 0.70) and White male rates (IRR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.15 - 0.79) declined substantially more than homicide rates involving actors outside the 15 to 24 years age range (IRR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.54 - 1.69). In addition, neighborhoods where specific, community-level strategies were implemented had statistically significant and substantive high-risk homicide rate declines. We conclude that further extension of the pulling levers framework appears warranted in light of the recent findings. Alternative justice strategies that rely on the threat of sanctions coupled with strengthening social service provisions, as well as risk communication aimed at high-risk individuals, appears to hold significant promise as a means to reduce lethal violence.

Structural correlates of female homicide: A cross-national analysis

The present study went beyond previous cross-national homicide research, which has largely focused on combined (male and female) rates of homicide offending, by using gender-disaggregated homicide arrest figures. The study included controls for the clearance rate and the percentage of homicides that were attempts, and included data for forty-eight countries across multiple levels of development. The author compared the effects of development/modernization and opportunity on female homicide rates to their effects on male homicide rates. Results indicated that, overall, structural predictors had very similar effects on male and female homicide rates. Both rates were lower in countries with a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and neither male nor female homicide rates were related to urbanization. Countries with a higher number of people per household had a lower rate of both male and female homicide offending; however, this relationship only held when percent young was excluded from the model.