Major Transport Infrastructure Projects Research Articles

Cost Underruns in Major Road Transport Infrastructure Projects—The Surprising Experience of Poland

This paper investigates the reasons behind the surprising cost performance of road construction projects in Poland. In particular, in order to explain the phenomenon of cost underruns, the role of regulations related to the national and the European Union structural investment funding is verified. It is shown that in Poland there exist two different institutional frameworks related to infrastructure investment projects. However, in the case of road transport infrastructure investment, the public investor does not discriminate between the sources of funding and follows the optimal strategy for the EU co-funded projects. This, in turn, leads to the emergence of cost underruns.

Becoming WestConnex – Becoming Sydney: Object-oriented politics, contested storylines and the multi-scalar imaginaries of building a motorway network in Sydney, Australia

Drawing on and developing literatures on automobilities, vertical urbanisms and the use of storylines to understand mega transport projects, we imagine infrastructure as a shifting assemblage of actors, storylines and material objects and practices. In the case of motorway building, this requires an understanding of how competing storylines about how both the infrastructure itself and the city it is located in are mobilised and politicised across diverse local geographies and multiple scales as the process proceeds. Our case study focuses on WestConnex, a 33 km motorway being built in Sydney, Australia. Similar to other major transport infrastructure projects, WestConnex morphed over time, growing in ambition, budget, complexity, debate and by enrolling new actors.

Assessment of major Arctic development projects: new challenges — new responses

In recent years, several fundamental decisions were made in relation to the implementation of major transport infrastructure projects for the development of the Arctic. To ensure their justification and successful implementation, it is necessary to use adequate tools of project analysis. The paper addresses the development of methods for assessing the financial and economic efficiency of Arctic development projects and quantifying the results of interaction between project participants, including spatial interaction. The developed model allows us to quantify the redistribution of results between project participants due to the mechanisms of various government support instruments and methods of private financing. The proposed methods were tested for the Yamal LNG project.

Design of the metro tunnel project tunnel linings for fire testing

AbstractWith a growing pipeline of major transport infrastructure projects transforming Victoria's road and rail networks, there is an increase in demand for the construction of underground tunnels using the shield tunneling method. Such tunnels need to be designed for fire resistance in order to preserve both structural integrity and serviceability in the event of a fire event. This paper describes the approach taken to design the concrete tunnel lining segments for Melbourne's Metro Tunnel Project for structural stability during a severe fire incident. Two types of fire testing programs were implemented, both of which used the RABT ZTV (rail) fire curve. The first involved the fire testing of 12 unloaded flat panels in order to determine whether a particular concrete mix design would be susceptible to spalling. Second, six prototype full scale tunnel lining segments were subjected to full scale structural fire testing, for the first time in Australia. The results indicated that full scale structurally loaded fire tests are essential as unloaded flat panels underestimate the degree of spalling. Addition of PP fibers are successful in mitigating spalling in addition to using pozzolans cements such as flyash and slag.

Ex-post evaluation of major infrastructure projects

Ex ante assessment of a project by means of cost-benefit analysis is quite common in transport. On the other hand, ex post evaluations are only done very infrequently, even though such analyses can be very useful. Ex post evaluation can be used to check whether projects really delivered the benefits expected from them at the time, and to learn which projects do better and which do worse than expected, and why. This paper reviews the literature for evaluating projects that have been completed (ex post evaluation). It also presents the methodology that was selected for the ex post evaluation of ten major transport infrastructure projects supported by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and Cohesion Fund (CF) between 2000 and 2013. A conceptual framework on the impacts of a transport project on society has been developed and worked out in terms of an ex post assessment methodology. The conceptual framework includes a typology of effects for investment projects in the transport sector and the timeframe of effects. Ten case studies (major transport projects) have been carried out using this framework, and the outcomes for these case studies are reported.

Space for Freight – Managing capacity for freight in Sydney – a CBD undergoing transformation

Abstract Various complexities are involved in allocating and managing road and kerbside space in cities to adequately meet demands. This paper primarily draws from experiences faced in Sydney CBD to provide space for freight while the city is simultaneously undertaking major transport infrastructure projects and managing unprecedented levels of private sector development. A direct impact of this combined activity has been a managed reduction in kerbside capacity with significant impacts to loading zones for freight and servicing. All this is also occurring when last mile logistics activity is increasing substantially primarily as a result of eCommerce activity. While accommodating business growth with reduced kerbside capacity, the approaches taken to manage freight over the last three years have resulted in some intrinsic successes for transport network demands. Some of this owes to policies and infrastructure plans established long before the last few years while some is down to ongoing current work and perseverance. For all aspects of the transport network management, a primary goal throughout this ongoing transformation is keeping Sydney CBD successful and vibrant for business. This considers the movement of people and goods, including the people moving the goods. This paper examines how space for freight is being provided and managed throughout this transformation period from the perspective of a network manager. It examines how space is used, how this changes in the face of capacity and social challenges and, the outcomes realised to date. The paper highlights the alternatives to regular kerbside parking and also considers challenges the future could bring.

Public-Private Cooperation and Judicial Review: A Case Study Drawn from European Infrastructure Projects

National administrative law traditions are changing under the influence of socio-economic factors and the Europeanization of legal norms. To illustrate this evolution this article discusses the roles of judges in three European major transport infrastructure projects in England, France and Belgium where long-term public-private cooperation was developed and strong public opposition voiced. Public-private cooperation to develop infrastructure projects is not new. EU financial requirements and EU procurement directives, though, constrain more than ever how these public-private cooperations can be contractually designed, while EU sectoral legislation may offer new opportunities for public-private cooperation. In parallel, citizens are entitled to be involved in large projects affecting the environment and no longer mainly seek protection for their individual property rights. These changes illustrate the changing role of private parties (economic actors and citizens) in major infrastructure projects. They also result in public bodies endorsing an increasingly supervisory and monitoring role while not having the suitable skills, resources or information in-house to do so. These adaptations under the pressure of socio-economic and political concerns call for administrative law to revisit the role that judges play in adjudicating issues arising from these complex publicprivate contracts, where public bodies and private parties are locked together for a long term and where changing the relationship is extremely expensive for the public purse.

Including Health in Environmental Assessments of Major Transport Infrastructure Projects: A Documentary Analysis.

Background: Transport policy and practice impacts health. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are regulated public policy mechanisms that can be used to consider the health impacts of major transport projects before they are approved. The way health is considered in these environmental assessments (EAs) is not well known. This research asked: How and to what extent was human health considered in EAs of four major transport projects in Australia. Methods: We developed a comprehensive coding framework to analyse the Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) of four transport infrastructure projects: three road and one light rail. The coding framework was designed to capture how health was directly and indirectly included. Results: We found that health was partially considered in all four EISs. In the three New South Wales (NSW) projects, but not the one South Australian project, this was influenced by the requirements issued to proponents by the government which directed the content of the EIS. Health was assessed using human health risk assessment (HHRA). We found this to be narrow in focus and revealed a need for a broader social determinants of health approach, using multiple methods. The road assessments emphasised air quality and noise risks, concluding these were minimal or predicted to improve. The South Australian project was the only road project not to include health data explicitly. The light rail EIS considered the health benefits of the project whereas the others focused on risk. Only one project considered mental health, although in less detail than air quality or noise. Conclusion: Our findings suggest EIAs lag behind the known evidence linking transport infrastructure to health. If health is to be comprehensively included, a more complete model of health is required, as well as a shift away from health risk assessment as the main method used. This needs to be mandatory for all significant developments. We also found that considering health only at the EIA stage may be a significant limitation, and there is a need for health issues to be considered when earlier, fundamental decisions about the project are being made.

Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects

The methodology, analysis, and the unfounded conclusions presented in the paper “Underestimating costs in public works projects: error or lie?” by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (2002), published in the Journal of the American Planning Association are critically questioned. Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl attribute the cause of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects to delusion (optimism bias) and deception (strategic misrepresentation). The bifurcation of the cost underestimation problem into error or lie presents a false dichotomy – an either/or choice that is invalid when juxtaposed with the real-world nature of procuring large infrastructure assets. Put simply, the conclusions presented by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl are akin to being fake news. Unfortunately, the persistent reverberation of these convenient narratives and factoids in both academia and media has led to these explanations becoming an accepted norm. In this paper, the claims made by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl are debunked. A call is made for policy-makers to embrace and utilize evidence-based research so that informed decisions about capital cost estimates and potential risks can be better ascertained at the front-end of major transport infrastructure projects.

Inclusion of Health in Environmental Impact Assessment of Major Transport Infrastructure Projects in Vietnam.

Background: Infrastructure spending, especially in the transport sector, is expected to increase rapidly in Vietnam. This boost in transportation investment impacts health. Environmental impact assessments (EIAs) are essential tools for decision-making to reduce and mitigate anticipated impacts of development projects, and integration of health assessment as an essential part of the EIA process has been regulated in many high-income countries. There is, however, limited knowledge about how health is evaluated in these environmental assessments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Vietnam. Methods: We did an analysis of EIAs of four major transport projects in Vietnam, applying a six-step coding framework previously used to investigate EIAs in the Australian context. Results: We found that health was inadequately considered in all four EIAs. There was no direct health assessment within the four EIAs due to the lack of formal requirements from either Government or the financing agency, the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Health issues were often identified as risks posed by the projects within the assessment of impacts on environmental conditions. A broader consideration of health was limited. When social outcomes of the projects were present in EIAs, they were often mentioned once without any detailed assessment or linking to health. There was no evidence linking health benefits and shifts towards active travel with the construction of two metro rail projects. Mitigation measures offered in all four EIAs were found to be generic and insubstantial. Conclusion: The health assessments in the EIAs of four transport projects in Vietnam were significantly less detailed than those in Australia, mainly due to the lack of legislative requirements. The lack of health content indicates the need for involvement of health experts in the environmental assessment process, as well as requirements for the health assessment to be integrated in EIA. Our findings suggest there is the need to build capacity both within and outside of government to fully consider the health impacts of infrastructure in EIA practice.

Public-Private Co-Operation and Judicial Review - A Case Study Drawn from European Infrastructure Projects

National administrative law traditions are changing under the influence of socio-economic factors and the Europeanisation of legal norms. To illustrate this evolution this paper discusses the roles of judges in three European major transport infrastructure projects in England, France and Belgium where long-term public-private co-operation was developed and strong public opposition voiced. Public-private co-operation to develop infrastructure projects is not new. EU financial requirements and EU procurement directives, though, constrain more than ever how these public-private co-operations can be contractually designed, while EU sectoral legislation may offer new opportunities for public-private co-operation. In parallel, citizens are entitled to be involved in large projects affecting the environment and no longer mainly seek protection for their individual property rights. These changes illustrate the changing role of private parties (economic actors and citizens) in major infrastructure projects. They also result in public bodies endorsing an increasingly supervisory and monitoring role while not having the suitable skills, resources or information in-house to do so. These adaptations under the pressure of socio-economic and political concerns call for administrative law to revisit the role that judges play in adjudicating issues arising from these complex public-private contracts, where public bodies and private parties are locked together for a long term and where changing the relationship is extremely expensive for the public purse.

The TRIMODE integrated model for Europe

Abstract This paper presents the TRIMODE integrated model for Europe that combines the simulation of transport, economy and energy systems for the assessment of major transport infrastructure projects and policies. Within a single software platform, the TRIMODE model components include a full four stage transport model of passenger and freight movements across Europe, an energy model with dynamic vehicle fleets for all transport modes and an economy model representing the complete macroeconomic system of European countries. Covering the whole European Union and it neighbouring countries, the model has a very detailed spatial resolution of the transport system, whose multimodal network and zoning systems are based on the NUTS III level and below, coupled with a very detailed disaggregation of transport demand by socio-economic groups and trip purposes for passengers and by commodity groups and modes of appearance for freight. From the energy point of view the model incorporates complete vehicle fleet models for cars, trucks, trains, vessels and planes, including all types of energy sources and technologies. The economic impacts of transport are dealt with by a two layers General Equilibrium model that works at regional basis. The main focus of the paper is on the passenger modelling in the specific context of a EU wide scale model, considering generation, distribution, mode sequence choice and assignment within long distance intermodal passenger trips. The passenger demand model is embedded within the PTV Visum software plus several appended modules developed as Python scripts to manage in a consistent and transparent form some tasks that are not part of standard software functions.

Roads to nowhere: The accuracy of travel demand forecasts for do-nothing alternatives

Impact appraisals of major transport infrastructure projects rely extensively on the accuracy of forecasts for the expected construction costs and aggregate travel time savings. The latter of these further depend on the accuracy of forecasts for the expected travel demand in both the do-something and do-nothing alternatives, in order to assess the impact of implementing new projects compared to doing nothing or postponing the decision. Previous research on the accuracy of travel demand forecasts has focused exclusively on the do-something alternatives, where inaccuracies have been revealed in the form of large imprecision as well as systematic biases. However, little or no attention has been given to the accuracy of demand forecasts for the do-nothing alternatives, which are equally important for impact appraisals. This paper presents the first ex-post evaluation of demand forecast accuracy for do-nothing alternatives, based on an empirical study of 35 road projects in Denmark and England. The results show a tendency for systematic overestimation of travel demand in the do-nothing alternatives, which is in contrast to the systematic underestimation of travel demand observed in previous studies of do-something alternatives. The main implication for planning practice is that the severity of future congestion problems is systematically overestimated. As a consequence, impact appraisals of road construction as a means of congestion relief appear overly beneficial.

How to Build Major Transport Infrastructure Projects within Budget, in Time and with the Expected Output; a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature on factors which help to realise major transport infrastructure projects within the forecasted budget, schedule and with the expected output. The most mentioned factors overall are as follows: (1) improving the cost and benefit estimates of projects, (2) containing the risks involved in these projects, (3) increasing accountability and (4) maintaining clear scope and objectives. Statistical research, in particular, focuses on these particular factors, but different research methodologies produce different results. Research based on case studies and interviews does not discuss accountability at all, while literature reviews and discussions show a remarkable focus on this specific factor. Furthermore, there is variety in the factors mentioned in papers investigating cost overruns, schedule overruns or output shortfalls. Overall, the research in this field focuses on failure within major transport infrastructure projects. These results show that a framework for building major transport infrastructure projects within budget, in time and with the expected output is emerging, but that more research is needed using multivariate analyses. Also, more research focusing on projects which have actually achieved their forecasts is needed.

Delivering London 2012: Transport demand forecasting

This paper describes the strategies and assumptions made in modelling the effects of holding the world's biggest sporting event in one of the world's major cities and how the work informed the development and implementation of the Olympic transport plan. Ten million ticket holders would need to travel safely, efficiently and in time to 29 Olympic venues, utilising all available modes of transport, while residents, workers, visitors and tourists needed to be able to continue to travel around London as normal. Consequently, transport was an important and integral part of the planning for the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games as far back as 2003 during the bid phase. Between 2003 and 2005 a bid company worked with Transport for London to develop the overall transport strategies for the games. By the time of the bid submission, transport strategies were in place to cover major transport infrastructure projects and the concept of the Olympic Route Network linking sports venues with accommodation for athletes, officials the media and sponsors. When London was confirmed as the host city for the London 2012 Games, this work continued with the development and implementation of the full Olympic transport plan for the event. A central tool in the development of the Olympic transport plan was travel demand forecasting, combining tried and tested methodologies and modelling tools with the latest innovations and adapting existing tools where necessary to best fit the uncertainties associated with some elements of the games.

The emergence of an Alpine environmental expertise

This article reports on the findings of research carried out on conflicts concerning major transport infrastructure projects in the Southern Alps. These conflicts were analyzed as delineating the gradual emergence of an environmental expertise network. Rather than fighting the administration and/or the transport operator in the field of transport, some opponents try to relocate the expertise into the field of the environment so as to catch the experts in the different administrations off guard. This resulting Alpine environmental expertise is based on the constitution of trans‐Alpine associative networks and the emergence of a constantly more supportive and structuring notion: sustainable development. In this article, we analyze the manner in which this notion is diffused and how it gradually builds up its definition in the course of action. The Alpine Agreement plays a major role in this operationalization: it constitutes a multilateral semantic point of reference for a variable Alpine policy and has influenced both major trans‐Alpine associative networks and official French land transport policy.

Economic and regeneration impacts of Croydon Tramlink

Wider economic benefits beyond direct transport benefits are often claimed ex ante for major transport infrastructure projects. However, assessments of these benefits are rarely considered in official ex post evaluations. This paper considers the evidence of wider benefits of the new generation of light rail and tram schemes being developed especially in respect on Croydon Tramlink in Greater London. In particular, it examines the demographics and social profile of users, its impact on local employers and unemployment along the route, the effect on residential property prices, its impact on inward investment and perceptions and image of areas served. The analysis is based on both surveys of key stakeholders along the line of route and empirical analysis of economic indicators at the local level. The paper goes on to draw conclusions as to how to maximise the

Channel Tunnel Rail Link: financing and risk transfer

The £5·2 billion Channel Tunnel Rail Link is one of the world's largest public–private infrastructure projects ever undertaken. This paper describes the innovative funding and risk-sharing arrangements that were developed to lower the cost of capital—and maintain risk transfer to the private sector—despite the initial failure of Eurostar to meet revenue forecasts and the later failure of Railtrack. It could serve as a model for the future public–private procurement of major transport infrastructure projects worldwide.

Channel Tunnel Rail Link: financing and risk transfer

The £5·2 billion Channel Tunnel Rail Link is one of the world's largest public–private infrastructure projects ever undertaken. This paper describes the innovative funding and risk-sharing arrangements that were developed to lower the cost of capital—and maintain risk transfer to the private sector—despite the initial failure of Eurostar to meet revenue forecasts and the later failure of Railtrack. It could serve as a model for the future public–private procurement of major transport infrastructure projects worldwide.

Evaluating the environmental impact of a major transport infrastructure project: the Channel Tunnel high-speed rail link

Environmental assessment is now an internationally accepted methodology for evaluating the effects of proposed major transport infrastructure projects on the environment. Within the UK, both the Channel Tunnel and the proposed high-speed rail link project have a statutory requirement to produce an environmental assessment of the immediate and long-term effects of construction and operation. This emphasis on impact assessment and mitigation is part of a growing concern for the effects of transport on the environment. This paper examines the continued controversy associated with the route of the proposed Channel Tunnel high-speed rail link and British Rail's attempt to evaluate various route options in order to minimize the long-term impact. The paper considers the origins of the rail link project in relation to British Rail's obligation to plan, construct and operate a high-speed rail link to meet the forecast demand for Channel Tunnel rail travel by 1998. The significance of environmental assessment and its role in shaping British Rail's environmental policy for the rail link project is examined in relation to the process of selecting environmentally acceptable route corridors through Kent. This is followed by a discussion of two route-long environmental impacts. The extent to which British Rail's environmental assessment fulfils the criteria for environmental impact assessment is also evaluated.