Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Research Articles

Signature of a zonally symmetric semidiurnal tide during major sudden stratospheric warmings and plausible mechanisms: a case study

Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is a winter phenomenon initiated primarily by the enhanced stationary planetary waves (SPWs), characterized by an increase in polar stratospheric temperature by a few tens of kelvin for a few days. Wave-wave non-linear interaction can produce secondary waves, with sum and difference frequencies of the primary wave frequencies. The sun-synchronous semidiurnal tide is a major component at mid and high latitude middle atmosphere, which non-linearly interacts with the dominant SPW in the stratosphere to produce the zonally symmetric semidiurnal tide component (S0), as observed during two boreal SSWs. The zonally symmetric distribution of ozone has also potential to excite the S0 component by absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation as evident during a rare Austral SSW. Overall, the present study sheds light on the dominant generation mechanisms involved in the S0 enhancement during the SSW.

Connection between Winter East Asia Flow Patterns and Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies

Using a reanalysis dataset, this work investigates the possible connection of winter East Asia (EA) flow patterns to stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) anomalies. Cluster analysis is performed on the principal components of daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields to identify five distinct flow patterns. SPV anomalies are considered in terms of the occurrence of major sudden stratospheric warmings (MSSWs). The results reveal that for the 15 days before the MSSWs, one of the five patterns occurs more frequently than usual, whereas another occurs less frequently. The former constructively interferes with the climatological EA trough in the troposphere and strengthens the planetary wave activity (heat flux) in the extratropical troposphere and stratosphere. It has a similar pattern in the 500 hPa height to the composite leading to the MSSWs, implying that such strengthening can contribute to the forcing of the MSSWs. The latter is in the opposite sense (destructive interference) and is disadvantageous before the MSSWs. Evidence of a stratospheric downward influence on the five flow patterns is relatively unclear. These results suggest a potential coupling between flow patterns or weather regimes in different regions through the SPV, as well as warrant further investigation of the downward influence on EA weather regimes.

Unexpected Global Structure of Quasi‐4‐Day Wave With Westward Zonal Wavenumber 2 During the February 2023 Unusual Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming With Elevated Stratopause

AbstractDuring February 2023, the quasi‐4‐day wave (Q4DW) with westward zonal wavenumber 2 (W2) reached its largest amplitude of ∼400 m in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) geopotential height observations since 2004, which occurred simultaneously with an Arctic major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with an elevated stratopause (ES). However, the Q4DW‐W2 perturbations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) were unexpectedly suppressed despite the unstable Arctic stratosphere and mesosphere during the 2023 ES‐SSW. Diagnostic analysis shows that the westward winds at ∼54°N–70°N in the upper stratosphere of ∼‐79 m/s during the 2023 ES‐SSW were the strongest during boreal winters over the past two decades, which benefited from the onset of a preceding minor SSW at the end of January. The strongest westward wind generated a wave geometry configuration of full reflection for Q4DW‐W2 in the NH, while the Q4DW‐W2 enhancement in the SH was induced by the in‐situ amplification of the surviving seeding perturbations.

Large-scale dynamic processes during the minor and major sudden stratospheric warming events in January–February 2023

Using data from reanalyses of meteorological information, this study examines peculiarities of the thermodynamic regime of the Arctic stratosphere in the winter season of 2022–2023. For this purpose, components of the global meridional circulation, wave activity fluxes, volume of polar stratospheric clouds type I (PSC NAT) are analyzed, as well as changes in these indicators during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events formed in January–February. The main features of the 2022–2023 winter season were the following: (1) a persistent cold stratospheric polar vortex was observed until mid-January, which caused the PSC NAT volume growth to its maximum values since 1980; (2) enhanced wave activity from mid-January led to the formation of a minor SSW at the end of January, an increase in the temperature of the lower stratosphere and a sharp reduction in PSC NAT; (3) a week of intensification of the polar vortex was then observed, followed by a weakening due to the next burst of wave activity propagation during the second SSW event in mid-February. This second SSW event was major, accompanied by a reversal of the mean zonal wind, which lasted until early March; (4) meridional heat flux in January–February 2023 was the highest since 1948, resulting in unprecedented warming of the lower Arctic stratosphere and preventing ozone depletion in March; (5) the minor SSW at the end of January was accompanied by a more intense change in the meridional circulation than the major SSW in mid-February. Formation of ozone mini-hole over Northern and Central Europe in February 2023 was associated with the strengthening of the anticyclone, leading to a stratopause elevation and northward transport of ozone-poor air masses from the subtropics along the western periphery of the anticyclone additionally to related to the major SSW temperature changes affected the ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere.

Symmetric and Antisymmetric Solar Migrating Semidiurnal Tides in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere

AbstractUpward‐propagating solar tides are responsible for a large part of atmospheric variability in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region, and they are also an important source of ionospheric variability. Tides can be divided into the parts that are symmetric and antisymmetric about the equator. Their distinction is important, as the electrodynamic responses of the ionosphere to symmetric and antisymmetric tides are different. This study examines symmetric and antisymmetric tides using 21 years of temperature measurements by the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry. The main focus is on the solar migrating semidiurnal tide (SW2), which is one of the dominant tides in the MLT region. It is shown that symmetric and antisymmetric parts of SW2 are comparable in amplitude. However, their spatiotemporal characteristics are different. That is, the symmetric part is strongest during March–June at 30–35° latitude, while the antisymmetric part is most prominent during May–September with the largest amplitude at 15–20° latitude. The symmetric and antisymmetric parts can be well described by the first two symmetric and antisymmetric Hough modes, respectively. Amplification is observed in the antisymmetric part during the major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in January 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2019. Atmospheric model simulations for the 2009 and 2019 SSWs confirm the amplification in the antisymmetric part of SW2. The enhanced antisymmetric tidal forcing explains the previously‐reported asymmetric response of the ionospheric solar‐quiet current system to SSWs.

Influences of sudden stratospheric warmings on the ionosphere above Okinawa

Abstract. We analyzed the ionosonde observations from Okinawa (26.7° N, 128.1° E; magnetic latitude: 17.0° N) for the years from 1972 to 2023. Okinawa is in the northern low-latitude ionosphere, where the influences of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on the ionosphere are expected to be stronger than in the mid- and high-latitude ionospheres. We divided the dataset into winters with major SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere (SSW years) and winters without major SSWs (no-SSW years). During the SSW years, the daily cycle of the F2-region electron density maximum (NmF2) is stronger than in the no-SSW years. The relative NmF2 amplitudes of solar and lunar tidal components (S2, O1, M2, MK3) are stronger by 3 % to 8 % in the SSW years than in the no-SSW years. The semidiurnal amplitude, averaged across 29 SSW events, has a significant peak at the central date of the SSW (epoch time 0 of the composite analysis). The SSW influence is not strong: the semidiurnal amplitude is about 38.2 % in the SSW years and about 34.0 % in the no-SSW years (relative to the NmF2 of the background ionosphere). However, there is a sharp decrease in the amplitude of about 10 % after the SSW peak is reached. The amplitude of the diurnal component does not show a single peak at the central date of the SSW. We present the maximal semidiurnal amplitudes of the SSWs since 1972. The SSW of 31 December 1984 has the strongest amplitude (162 %) in the ionosphere above Okinawa (with a high geomagnetic activity, Ap, of 37 nT). The most surprising finding of the study is the strong lunar tides with relative amplitudes of about 10 % and the discovery of a terdiurnal lunar tide (5 %) in the NmF2 during the SSW years. The periods of the ionospheric lunar tides align with the periods of ocean tides and lunisolar variations in the atmosphere.

Influence of temperature changes and vertically transported trace species on the structure of MLT region during major SSW events

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are large-scale dynamic phenomena which can significantly affect the circulation, temperature, and composition of different atmospheric layers. The circulation changes during these events induce variations in the atmospheric neutral and ion densities and cause the vertical transport of various trace species. The severity of effects induced by major SSW events in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region has received less attention than that in the lower atmosphere. The major influence of temperature and vertically transported trace species on the energetics, thermal and compositional structure of the MLT region has been investigated during two major SSW events with elevated stratopause. Variations in the nitric oxide volume emission rates (NO-VER), a measure of infrared radiative cooling by NO, are reported for the first time in the context of the dynamical changes during SSW events. This study investigates the role of temperature and NO variability on the energetics of the MLT region, particularly during the formation of elevated stratopause. The effects of supplemented NO density on the secondary ozone layer has also been investigated during these events, the anti-correlation between secondary ozone and NO does not conclude on the role of NO in the secondary ozone peak density variations. Notwithstanding the similarity in terms of defining characteristics, both SSW events impact the secondary ozone layer differently. In contrast to earlier studies, it is suggested that along with temperature, the availability of atomic oxygen is the major factor for the observed variation in secondary ozone during the SSW events.

Physical mechanism for the temporary intensification of wintertime sporadic E layers in 2009

This study provides a physical mechanism for the temporary intensification of wintertime sporadic E layers (EsLs) in 2009. It is widely accepted that vertical wind shears control EsL formations. EsL intensity is minimal in winter, partially because of the weakened vertical wind shears. Despite the wintertime minimum EsL intensity, temporary intensifications of EsLs occurred for 10–30 days in some winters, the cause of which remains unclear. In this study, we conducted month-long EsL simulations in 2009 and 2011, the years when both wintertime EsL (WiEsL) intensification and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurred, and when neither did, respectively. The simulations aimed to reveal the physical mechanisms of the WiEsL intensification in 2009. We succeeded in reproducing the occurrence and non-occurrence of temporary WiEsL intensification in 2009 and 2011, respectively, observed by an ionosonde at Kokubunji, Japan, although day-to-day variations in WiEsL intensity were not reproduced well. Evidently, the temporary WiEsL intensification is attributed to vertical ion convergence (VIC) intensification at altitudes of 100–120 km between 4 and 8 local time (LT) and particularly after 15 LT. The VIC intensification is caused primarily by the vertical wind shears of SW2 tides, westward propagating semi-diurnal tides with wavenumber 2. The SW2 intensification is driven by the major SSW in January–February 2009. Additionally, 6–8-day planetary waves can also affect the WiEsL intensification superposed on the SW2 amplification effects.Graphical

Observation of vertical coupling during a major sudden stratospheric warming by ICON and GOLD: a case study of the 2020/2021 warming event

The response of the thermospheric daytime longitudinally averaged zonal and meridional winds and neutral temperature to the 2020/2021 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is studied at low-to middle latitudes (0◦ - 40◦N) using observations by NASA’s ICON and GOLD satellites. The major SSW commenced on 1 January 2021 and lasted for several days. Results are compared with the non-SSW winter of 2019/2020 and pre-SSW period of December 2020. Major changes in winds and temperature are observed during the SSW. The northward and westward winds are enhanced in the thermosphere especially above ∼140 km during the warming event, while temperature around 150 km drops up to 50 K compared to the pre-SSW phase. Changes in the zonal and meridional winds are likely caused by the SSW-induced changes in the propagation and dissipation conditions of internal atmospheric waves. Changes in the horizontal circulation during the SSW can generate upwelling at low-latitudes, which can contribute to the adiabatic cooling of the low-latitude thermosphere. The observed changes during the major SSW are a manifestation of long-range vertical coupling in the atmosphere.

Quasi‐5‐Day Oscillations During Arctic Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings From 2005 to 2021

AbstractTraveling quasi‐5‐day oscillations (Q5DOs) with different wavenumbers are independently observed in the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere during many recent sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, but their common activities during SSWs are still unclear. Based on the geopotential height data measured by the Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) from August 2004 to March 2021, we statistically investigate the characteristics of the Q5DOs during eight Arctic major SSW events. The amplitudes of the Q5DOs are obtained by a new fitting method, which inhibits the effect of rapid changes in stationary planetary waves during SSWs. Our results reveal a robust feature that Q5DOs were enhanced during all interested SSW events. Our analysis indicates that eastward and westward propagating Q5DOs can be simultaneously enhanced during SSWs. Additionally, the wavenumbers of the enhanced Q5DOs are found to be associated with the geometry of polar vortices. Extremely strong westward Q5DOs with wavenumber 2 are consistently observed during split‐type major SSWs.

Analysis of Planetary Scale Waves Using Idealized Sudden Stratospheric Warming Simulations in Different Dynamical Cores

AbstractPlanetary waves from the troposphere are known to play an important role in sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). To evaluate the representation of large‐scale waves in idealized SSW simulations, three dynamical cores of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model were tested in this study: the Eulerian (EUL) spectral‐transform, finite‐volume (FV), and spectral element (SE) models. Notable differences were observed among the dynamical cores, with FV being unable to generate major SSWs and simulating minor SSWs less effectively than the other models. Wave decomposition analysis revealed distinct planetary wave propagation patterns during the development of each event. Zonal Wave Number 2 wave activities primarily determined SSW types, and ZWN1 led SSWs to recovery during the ensuing periods. However, FV failed to adequately propagate large‐scale waves in minor SSW events, preventing the reversal of stratospheric zonal‐mean zonal winds. Interestingly, FV showed decreased upward Eliassen–Palm flux compared to that of other dynamical cores, even during climatology. Additional tests were performed to examine the reasons for FV's atypical results, but the dynamic impacts on planetary waves remain poorly understood.

Forecast Skill and Signal‐To‐Noise Ratio for Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variations in Northern Hemisphere Winter Seasonal Hindcasts

AbstractThis study explores seasonal forecast skill and signal‐to‐noise (SN) ratio for stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) variations during Northern winter using hindcast (HC) data of six systems initialized around early November in the Copernicus Climate Change Service database. Results show high skill for December‐January‐February (DJF) mean El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) variations, although it is suggested that some systems underestimate the QBO amplitude. The ENSO and QBO variations in the HC data are also suggested to be underdispersive having too high SN ratio due to too strong signal and/or too weak noise (spread). The skill for DJF mean SPV variations is limited, with four systems having marginal skill near the 95% level, whereas the SN ratio is suggested to be realistic. It is also shown that no system has skill (evaluated using the Brier Score) at the 95% level in forecasting if each DJF winter experiences one or more major sudden stratospheric warmings, when a bias of the polar vortex strength in each system is simply considered. A comparison of the ensemble members for each system, when divided into two groups by the strength of the QBO‐SPV teleconnection, suggests an increase in the skill for SPV variations for the group of stronger teleconnection. This confirms the idea that the QBO‐SPV teleconnection contributes to the skill for SPV variations, and also suggests that the skill for SPV variations can be improved as the HC QBO and QBO‐SPV teleconnection are better simulated.

Effects of the Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings on the Sporadic-E layers in the Brazilian sector

Tidal and Planetary Wave (PWs) amplitudes are strongly influenced by Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. A nonlinear interaction between the tidal winds and planetary waves during the SSW may contribute to the intensification of sporadic-E (Es) layers in the lower thermosphere. This work investigated the relationship between SSW events in the Northern Hemisphere and the Es layer occurrence at low latitudes in the Brazilian sector. We used data from digital ionosondes installed in the observatories of Araguatins (ARA, 5.65° S; 48.12° W; dip lat. −5.44°) and São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.18° S; 45.89° W; dip lat. −21.37°) to analyze the Es layers. Additionally, we used the temperature, zonal wind, and PWs data at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere during the major SSW event that occurred in February/2018 and during the events of Dec/2018–Jan/2019 and Dec/2020–Jan/2021. The results showed a maximum frequency peak of 20 MHz (∼5 × 106 electrons.cm−3) at ARA and SJC during these SSW events. The large values of ftEs, fbEs, and electronic densities were observed between 100 and 115 km height in the Esf/l type layers during daytime or nighttime periods. The results also showed that the number of large values of ftEs, fbEs, and electronic density of the Es layer was much higher in ARA than in SJC, in general. The wavelet power spectrum analyses of the ftEs and fbEs showed a periodicity of 2-days before and after the central day of the SSWs events at the station of ARA, with three prominent peaks in the 2018/2019 event. At the SJC station the quasi-2-day periodicity in the wavelet analyses of the ftEs was observed after the central day in all three SSW events, with a peak before the central day during the 2020/2021 event.

The tropical influence on sub‐seasonal predictability of wintertime stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling

AbstractA unique set of relaxation experiments with a forecast model initialized during December–January 1999–2019 is used to explore tropical influence on the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling, to quantify predictability benefits due to the perfect knowledge of the tropical variability. On average, predictability of the polar stratosphere, as represented by the 50 hPa geopotential height anomalies north of 50°N (Z50), increases from 17 days in freely running (control) forecasts to 21 days in the tropical relaxation experiments. At sub‐seasonal time‐scales, a statistically significant improvement in weekly mean skill scores can be demonstrated in 14%–20% of individual forecast ensembles, mostly in cases when the skill of the corresponding control forecast is worse than average. In these forecasts, root‐mean‐square errors and forecast spread of Z50 during forecast weeks 3–5 are decreased by 10%–15%. Stratospheric improvements are detected during periods of both vortex strengthening and vortex weakening, including most major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings that occurred during the study period, via modulation of the upward wave activity fluxes. An active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is found in most of these events with MJO phase 5–7 preceding vortex weakening and MJO phase 3–4 preceding vortex strengthening. Forecasts with improved stratospheric circulation also have improved tropospheric circulation during and after the periods when improvements are detected in the stratosphere. We attribute these improvements to both stratosphere–troposphere coupling and tropospheric tropical teleconnections.

Impact of sudden stratospheric warming on middle atmospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere: A comparative study

A comparative study on the impact of rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) on the middle atmospheric circulation is investigated using a global reanalysis dataset. Since the SH SSW generally occur around spring equinox marking the seasonal transition, so an attempt has been made to isolate the seasonal transition effect from the actual data by carrying out deseasoning to delineate the effects mainly due to the warming. The deseasoned winds are able to extract relatively weak dynamical signatures of SSW at lower altitudes in terms of prominent zonal mean easterly forcing around the peak warming day (PWD) which are not evident from the actual winds. The influence of 2002 SSW seems to reach the troposphere in terms of easterly deseasoned forcing, which is not the case in 2019. Also the deseasoned winds in the stratosphere reveals earlier occurrence of easterly forcing in the extratropical latitudes, which progresses poleward around the PWD indicating a possible tropical precursor to the SH SSW. In general, the actual upper mesospheric wind is dominated by seasonal transition but the deseasoned winds reveal easterly and southerly forcing due to the SSW. Interestingly, the horizontal flow is found to be very different or even opposite in direction at different longitudes indicating uneven longitudinal response of the atmosphere to the warming events across the globe. Overall, the present study provides a detailed and comparative overview of the middle atmospheric circulation in terms of zonal mean flow and concomitant zonal variability during two rare major and minor SSW events in the SH.

Association of the 11-year solar cycle with correlation and teleconnection structures in tropospheric circulation

Analyzing spatial correlation structures and teleconnections in the 500 hPa heights of the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics in winter shows substantial differences between months with high and low solar activity. Patterns of spatial correlations of mid-tropospheric circulation differ between solar minima and maxima; the differences are geographically variable, particularly large and statistically significant in parts of the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Correlation structures of tropospheric circulation are significantly larger in solar maxima over parts of the North Atlantic. The geographical orientation of teleconnections is also associated with solar activity, the differences being most notable over the North Atlantic, North America, and the Arctic. The differences in teleconnections form a background for a response of modes of circulation variability and blocking anticyclones to solar activity, detected in previous studies. We detected no evidence of potential interference of responses to solar activity with quasi-biennial oscillation and volcanic eruptions; the interference with El Niño-Southern Oscillation is unlikely. The response to solar activity may be partly confused with the response to major sudden stratospheric warmings; however, sudden stratospheric warmings themselves may respond to the solar cycle.

Conjugate hemispheric response of Earth’s ionosphere due to 2019 Antarctic minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW): Comparison with 2013 Arctic major SSW

In this paper, we attempt to compare the Antarctic SSW of 2019 with the Arctic SSW of 2013. Despite being a minor SSW, the rare Antarctic event of September 2019 caused a significant enhancement of stratospheric temperature at high latitudes with more temperature deviation than the Arctic major SSW of 2013. On the basis of the duration and extent of stratospheric zonal mean zonal wind, the 2019 SSW is comparable to major SSWs. An exceptionally strong wave 1 planetary wave was observed during the 2019 SSW. We have investigated the response of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during both the SSWs over two low mid-latitude locations Okinawa and Darwin, which form magnetic conjugate pair. The extent of maximum ionospheric deviations during the 2019 SSW is almost comparable to the 2013 SSW in their respective hemispheres. We have observed mostly night time enhancement in TEC during the Arctic SSW, while daytime enhancement is noted during the Antarctic SSW. Hemispheric asymmetry is observed during both the SSWs. Minor geomagnetic storm has been noticed coinciding with each SSW during different phases of the warming. The SSW, solar flux, and storm contribution on the TEC have been calculated during both the SSWs, which shows clear contribution of SSW on the total TEC despite the presence of storm and during moderately high solar activity. We have also investigated the foF2 variations from ionosonde and IRI-16 at the same two locations. The peak electron density from ionosonde responds to the warming in a manner similar to TEC. The foF2 of IRI-16 exhibits overestimation during daytime and underestimation during nighttime on quiet days during low solar activity (2019), while during moderate solar activity (2013), it overestimates during morning hours. However, it can not predict the enhancements of foF2 during SSWs.

The Evolution of Solar Tide‐Like Signatures in the Ionospheric Total Electron Content During Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

AbstractBy using total electron content (TEC) from the global ionospheric maps, the solar tide‐like signatures in the ionosphere are explored. We further study how the main components evolve during the 2009 and 2018 major stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs). The method of a least‐square fit is applied for extracting the solar tide‐like components. The three predominant components are SW2, D0, and SW1, amplitude of which increase in the equatorial ionization anomaly region after the onset of both SSW events, especially in the northern hemisphere. During the SSW events, the solar tide‐like components vary significantly with latitude and their evolutions show hemispherical asymmetries. Each same component presents similar evolutionary trend during both events. The characteristics of ionospheric tide‐like signatures and related mechanisms are discussed. The SW2 tide‐like responses in TEC closely follow the changes in the tidal wind fields in the lower thermosphere, which provide evidences of the atmosphere‐ionosphere coupling during SSW events. In addition, the latitudinal asymmetric distributing of stratospheric ozone and ionospheric TEC background during the SSW may be influence factors for the hemispherical asymmetries in tide‐like signatures responses in TEC.

Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on the Migrating Diurnal Tide in the Equatorial Middle Atmosphere Observed by Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder

The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the satellite Aura measures the temperature at 01:44 LST (after midnight) and at 13:44 LST after noon in the equatorial middle atmosphere. The signatures of the migrating solar diurnal tide (DW1) show up in the difference between the night-time and the daytime temperature profiles. We find a good agreement between the equatorial DW1 proxy of the Aura/MLS observations and the migrating diurnal tide estimated by the Global Scale Wave Model (GSWM) in March. The equatorial DW1 proxy is shown for the time interval from 2004 to 2021 reaching a temporal resolution of 1 day. The amplitude modulations of the DW1 proxy are correlated at several altitudes. There are indications of a semi-annual and annual oscillation (SAO and AO) of the DW1 proxy. The composite of 17 events of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) shows that the equatorial, mesospheric DW1 proxy is reduced by about 10% during the first week after the SSW event. The nodes and bellies of the equatorial DW1 proxy are shifted downward by about 1–2 km in the first week after the SSW. The 14 day-oscillation of the DW1 proxy in the equatorial mesosphere is enhanced from 25 days before the SSW onset to 5 days after the SSW onset.

Impact of the 2018 major sudden stratospheric warming on weather over the midlatitude regions of Eastern Europe and East Asia

The impact of the Arctic major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in 2018 on regional cold weather in the northern midlatitudes is analyzed. Data from temperature observations in East Asia (Changchun, Northern China) and Eastern Europe (Kharkiv, Northern Ukraine) and NCEP–NCAR and ERA5 reanalyses are used. The variability of the vertical meridional profiles of temperature, temperature anomalies, vertical velocities and geopotential height during two strong surface cooling events is compared. Weather anomalies in Changchun and Kharkiv appeared under strong vortex conditions with wave 1 dominance (the pre-SSW period in January) and during vortex perturbation and split due to intensification of wave 2 (major SSW in February), respectively. The results show that the positive stratospheric temperature anomaly migrated both downward to the lowermost stratosphere at 200–300 hPa, and equatorward, reaching midlatitudes. In both events, the change in the lowermost stratosphere heating was associated with a lowering of the tropopause by 2–3 km in 5–8 days. The descent of the tropopause over Changchun (Kharkiv) was accompanied by a downward air motion so that the midtropospheric layer at altitudes 4–5 km (3–4 km) and temperature − 20 °C to −30 °C (−10 °C to −20 °C) was pushed down to the surface. Observations showed that the surface temperatures during these events dropped by 18 °C in Changchun and by 14 °C in Kharkiv. Besides the altitudinal (3–5 km), the results indicate latitudinal (near the climatological mean edge of the stratospheric polar vortex at ∼60°N) location of the cold air source for the occurrence of extreme low temperatures in East Asia and Eastern Europe. Preliminary analysis of cooling events suggests a relatively smaller contribution of meridional surface transport of cold air to the midlatitudes compared to its downwelling from the midtropospheric level. Possible mechanisms of strong surface cooling in midlatitudes are discussed.