Major Macroeconomic Indicators Research Articles

Targeting the new sustainable inclusive green growth: A review

Although the literature on inclusive growth is richer than ever before, still scant studies have researched its complex relationship with environmental quality. Considering the growing issue of poverty, unemployment, and rapid environmental degradation, we introduce here a new agenda for a sustainable global economy namely sustainable inclusive green growth. The paper is devoted to building up a comprehensive conceptual model of the relationship between environmental quality and inclusive growth based on the analysis of their main predictors, mediating and moderating variables using socio-economic theoretical underpinnings. In post-Covid-19 times, the world is considered about sustainable inclusive green growth more than anything else. An in-depth review of the literature suggests that inclusive growth could only be sustainable if it takes care of environmental quality while promising higher economic growth, tackling poverty, curbing inequalities through social and digital inclusion, and creating productive employment opportunities for current and future generations. The conceptual framework suggested here may be seen as a roadmap for policy makers of different geographical locations to target sustainable inclusive green growth. Moreover, the concepts of human and physical capital, institutions, trade dimensions, investment, and the role of major macroeconomic indicators such as inflation are also considered while designing the conceptual framework.

Macroeconomical and Microeconomical Aspects of Technology Transfer

Technology transfer (TT) is the transfer of research results from universities to the commercial sector. The macroeconomic aspects of technology transfer are related to the impact of TT on the technological constant, therefore, on gross domestic product and all major macroeconomic indicators, and on the economic growth of the country as a whole. The microeconomic aspects of technology transfer are related to the behavior of companies in harnessing scientific and technological advances to promote new products on the market. The problem of technology transfer is relevant due to the fact that the main factor for the growth of the economy of modern developed countries is not the growth of capital and labor, but the growth of the technological level. From the point of view of management theory, the first important peculiarity of the technology transfer process is due to the fact that several actors are involved in the process, the three main ones being academia (universities and research institutions), the business environment (enterprises) and public administrations. All participants in the process are relatively independent, have different goals and different value systems, all participants have at their disposal the resources to achieve their goals. Representatives of the business environment in the process of technology transfer are interested mainly in such results that are related to the creators of business success. For representatives of academia, universities and research centres in the process of technology transfer, such results are important that relate to the general successes of the academic environment – number of scientific publications, reports at scientific conferences, scientific awards. Representatives of public sectors in the technology transfer process are most interested in the quality indicators of public administration. Keywords: technology transfer, economic growth, macroeconomic aspects, microeconomic aspects.

Investigation into the International Financial Reporting Standards 9 model flaws exposed during the pandemic

Orientation: Market events during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic exposed flaws in the econometric models used to derive International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9 impairments. Models were unable to capture the level of government intervention or predict the economic recovery process because of the unprecedented nature of the pandemic.Research purpose: This study examines the causes of the challenges experienced with the IFRS 9 models during the pandemic and approaches to minimise this risk in the future.Motivation for the study: Structural correlation breaks forced banks to replace the IFRS 9 models with expert overlays or rapidly rebuild the models to reduce impairment volatility and manage the impact on earnings. Expert judgement may lead to biased outcomes.Research approach/design and method: Behavioural finance theory suggests that emotion and cognitive biases often lead to irrational investment decisions with disastrous consequences to the market. The link between market sentiment and economic outcomes is tested with natural language processing. Archimedean copulas are used to compare the dependence structures of market variables between different stress periods.Main findings: Market sentiment is closely related to the trends observed in major macroeconomic indicators. The nature of the dependence structures differs between stress periods.Practical/managerial implications: Sentiment may be a valuable exogenous variable to incorporate into economic forecast models. Learnings from one stress period are not necessarily applicable to another.Contribution/value-add: Government intervention and market sentiment had a significant impact on the economic outcomes and correlation breaks observed during the pandemic. Developing bespoke models for the different phases of the economic cycle may not necessarily lead to improved outcomes.

Влияние глобального технологического раскола на лидерство в мировой экономике на примерах ряда развитых и развивающихся стран

Recent technological trends and, particularly, the global technology fracture, significantly affect power distribution in the world economy. However, the problems that arise due to these tendencies and their possible consequences for the economic world order remain understudied. This article assesses the impact of the global technology fracture on economic leadership in the context of the contradictions of the West-East development models, taking into consideration both interstate conflicts in the innovative field and the rising power of big-tech companies. Complex index construction is employed to formalize the concept of leadership in the world economy and a panel data regression model is used for estimating effects of the technology fracture on it. The sample contains data on major macroeconomic and technological indicators for 30 western and 10 Asian countries from 2010 to 2019. As a result, it is concluded that the presence of a clear plan for the implementation of information and communication technologies by the state can have a positive impact on the economic leadership of a country, and the growing importance of technology giants has a negative impact on this indicator. Finally, this article contributes to a better understanding of the economic leadership concept among scholars and draws policymakersʼ attention to the necessity of new regulations in the technological sphere.

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Economic Activity in North Macedonia

Global financial crisis caused major economic disruptions and slow down economic activity in North Macedonian economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Global financial crisis on economic activity in North Macedonia through analyzing fluctuations of major macroeconomic indicators of the economy. In this regard, it analyzes the trends of macroeconomic indicators that reflect the development and macroeconomic balances of those economies, such as GDP, unemployment, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and the level of public debt, in order to identify factors that have contributed in their fluctuations. The research methodology consists of regression model of time series, OLS and VECM models. The results suggest that Global financial crisis had a negative impact on the economic growth, because the coefficient has a negative sign and is statistically significant. Keywords: global financial crisis, economic effects, OLS, VECM DOI: 10.7176/EJBM/14-23-01 Publication date: December 31 st 2022

Modeling the Impact of Pandemic-Induced Shocks and Support Measures with an Emerging Market Economy

Purpose: This paper analyzes the impacts of COVID-19 shocks on an emerging market economy using a Graphical User Interface (GUI) model. Methods: Event study analysis has been adopted using secondary data for measuring the impacts and impulse responses of different shocks. Results: The paper shows how the shocks affect the economy using graphical presentations of impulse responses of major macroeconomic indicators. The shapes and movements of the impulse response curves indicate how the effects pass through from one sector to another; how long the effects may persist in the economy, and how much time will be required for recovery. All these simulations suggest that immediate supportive measures from both fiscal and monetary sides help recover the economy, although marginally due to the required higher costs stemming mainly from the higher exchange rate volatility. Implications: Several policy implications such as sector-specific support measures, prioritization of sectors, rationing of credit facilities, efficient exchange rate management, etc., can be followed by the countries regarding fiscal and monetary policy measures towards reducing COVID-19-induced similar shocks.

Public expenditure for water facility and road transport infrastructure in Ethiopia: a comparison of impacts using an economy-wide model

BackgroundEthiopian government is investing in a wide range of pro-poor sectors but the economic effects of public investment widely vary across sectors. With a limited public resource, public investment across sectors has to be prioritized based on their potential socio-economic contributions and/or economy-wide benefits. Therefore, the objective of this study is to compare and explore the economy-wide returns of public expenditure on water facility and energy technology (such as improved cooking stoves) on the one hand and public expenditure on road infrastructure on the other hand.MethodsThe source of data for this study is the 2005/06 updated Social accounting matrix (SAM) of Ethiopia. The analysis applies the STAGE Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by McDonald (2007). This study analyses two policy scenarios; the first scenario is an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) of water fetching and firewood collection activities due to public investment in water facility and improved cooking stoves and the second scenario is a decrease in the trade and transport margins due to public investment in road transport infrastructure. For ensuring the comparability of the return of public expenditure, the same amount of public capital is invested in both scenarios.ResultsThe simulation outcome indicates that public investment in water facility and improved stoves results relatively higher domestic production in most sectors, larger household consumption, improved household welfare and improve in the major macroeconomic indicators (GDP, absorption, private consumption, and total domestic production) as compared to public investment in road transport infrastructure.ConclusionsIt is conducive to explore the potential economic contribution of public expenditure across the different pro-poor sectors before launching public investment in any specific sector. This will ensure limited public budgets are appropriately invested in the sector that can bring relatively highest economic-wide benefits to the wider society.

The Impact of Major Macroeconomic Indicators on the S&P 500 Index

The Impact of Major Macroeconomic Indicators on the S&P 500 Index

The Effect of the US Macroeconomic Indicators on the International Geopolitical Risk

ABSTRACT The recent economic literature concludes that geopolitical risk has significantly impacted various economic variables over the past years. This paper focuses on a new dimension and seeks to answer if the US major macroeconomic indicators affect the international geopolitical risk (GPR). Based on our knowledge, there is no such study conducted so far, and thus, we propose to fill this gap. We constructed a theoretical framework and estimated an econometric model using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag methodology and quarterly data (1973–2020). The results show a statistically significant effect of the US macroeconomic variables on the GPR. The long-run results are decisive and unique, while the short-run influences are mixed in significance levels and signs. Hence, the short-run impact may differ over time and its final impact depends on the outweighing effect between the harmful and beneficial outcomes. The findings prove that a dominant country with economic and political powers can influence the GPR. From a policy implication side, we affirm that globalization should proceed side by side with cooperation and coordination among nations to solve economic glitches. Otherwise, geopolitical risk will make the economic performance worse.

Economy of the Neighborhood Belt Countries in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Peculiarities of Post-Crisis Recovery

Aim. The presented study aims to identify key factors affecting the macroeconomic situation in the EAEU countries and Tajikistan (hereinafter referred to as the region) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.Tasks. This study summarizes trends in the development of the neighborhood belt countries in recent years; investigates changes in the real, monetary, fiscal, and external sectors of the economies caused by the spread of COVID-19; identifies the vulnerability factors of the countries in the region and key trends in responding to the crisis and post-crisis recovery.Methods. To investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the macroeconomic situation in the neighborhood belt countries, the authors analyze the dynamics of major macroeconomic indicators characterizing the state of the real, monetary, external, and fiscal sectors of the economies under consideration.Results. The macroeconomic situation in the neighborhood belt countries at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and during the post-crisis recovery is largely similar. The effects of the pandemic include sharp depreciation of national currencies, increased budget deficits, and increased national debt. Post-crisis recovery in the region is characterized by persistent risks to fiscal and debt sustainability and the effect of pro-inflationary factors.Conclusions. Despite the consistent post-crisis recovery of the neighborhood belt countries, sustainable growth is still threatened by the possible deterioration of the epidemiological situation, national budget deficit, high level of national debt, and increasing inflationary pressure. Macroeconomic policy in the countries of the region can be improved by enhancing the macroeconomic forecasting system and applying budget rules for managing budget and debt risks.

Impact of Sales Tax Reduction on Pakistan`s Economy

This paper studies the impact of reducing sales tax on macroeconomic variables like gross domestic product, national income, imports, exports, the balance of trade, private and public sector investment in the economy of Pakistan by using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model on the country`s latest available social accounting matrix (SAM) 2010-11. Previous studies have been designed to isolate to impact of indirect (sales) tax on some single, two, or three variables of the economy whereas, this investigation covers the impact on almost all the major macroeconomic indicators in context of one model. To examine the impact, simulations of 5% and 10% reductions on eminent macroeconomic indicators are performed. The experiment shows positive impact on all the above mentioned variables except a very few. In the light of these observations, our study recommends that policy of reducing sales tax should steadily be implemented in order to achieve economic development and maintain macroeconomic stability in the economy of Pakistan.

Do the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Have a Different Effect over Time? A Conditional Correlation Approach

Several studies have explored the linkage between non-performing loans and major macroeconomic indicators, using a wide variety of methodologies, sometimes with different results. This occurs, we argue, because these relationships are generally derived in terms of correlation coefficients evaluated in certain time spans, which represent a sort of average level of correlations. However, such correlations are necessarily time-varying, because the relationships between bank loan indicators and macroeconomic variables could be stronger during particular periods or in correspondence with important economic events. We propose an empirical exercise using dynamic conditional correlation models, with constant and time-varying parameters. Applying these models to quarterly delinquency rates and an array of macroeconomic variables for the US, for the period 1985–2019, we find that the correlation is often negligible in this period except during periods of economic crises, in particular the early 1990 crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis.

Investigating the relation of GDP per capita and corruption index

The paper is devoted to modelling the corruption perception index in panel data framework. As corruption index is bounded from below and above, traditional econometric multiple regression will produce a bad quality model. In order to correct that, we propose a mathematical framework for modelling bounded variables implementing a logistic function. It is shown that corruption is best explained by GDP per capita and all other major macroeconomic indicators cannot add any statistically significant improvement to the models’ accuracy. Thus, we assume, that society wealthiness facilitates the reduction of corruption acts. Indeed, if some individual lives in a society that does not experiences almost any shortage of resources of whatever kind, the less interested this person is in getting wealthier by applying some corruption schemes. These methods are rather popular in less wealthy countries, where temptation to engage into corruption is higher, since it can drastically increase individual’s utility function. Therefore, in this research we assert, that the growth of wealth in a society makes corruption recede and not the other way around (reducing corruption helps increase GDP per capita). However, the most counterintuitive finding of this research is the fact, that GDP per capita, adjusted by purchasing power parity, produces the model of a worse quality then just using plain GDP per capita. This fact can be tentatively explained by the flaws in the methodology of calculating these adjustments, since the basket of goods varies drastically across the countries.

MACROECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE’S FOREIGN TRADE

The purpose of the study is to assess the relationship between Ukraine's foreign trade and its major macroeconomic indicators in the context of deepening globalization processes and increasing dependence of national economic development on exogenous determinants. In order to achieve this goal, the most important factors of influence of macro level on the scale of foreign trade turnover have been selected, the interval of observations has covered 1999-2018. Authors used the method of economic and mathematical modeling based on the E-Views software. A multifactor regression model has been constructed, tested for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity; causal effects have been identified between foreign trade and the main macroeconomic indicators of combinatorial nature (both exogenous and endogenous), Ukraine’s foreign trade volumes has been forecasted up to 2023. Methodology. The study is based on the analyzed macroeconomic indicators for the period of 1999-2018, which made it possible to select those that showed up greatest impact on foreign trade. The results of the conducted modeling showed: high level achievement of foreign trade dynamics of Ukraine over the mentioned years, which exceeded similar indicators of dynamics of global trade; strong link between foreign trade, foreign direct investment and employment; revealing of a significant influence upon foreign trade of innovative activity of national business in industry as a dominant segment of the foreign sector of the country. As conclusions, the authors formulated a thesis on the need to strengthen institutional support for innovation and investment activities of national enterprises as a driver for scale-up and improvement of quality of Ukraine's trade relations with the entire world. It is determined that the multiplicative interaction of innovation and investment would diversify and complicate the commodity structure of exports, increase the level of its technological and innovative nature, and thus it is to allow to get rid of the established attitude to Ukraine on the trading map of the world as a supplier of low-tech raw materials. Practical implications. The main theoretical propositions, the authors’ conclusions presented in the article, are supposed to form a methodological basis for expert evaluation in substantiating the priorities of the state policy modernization regarding conditions and factors promoting the export-oriented sectors of the national economy. Value/originality. Prospects for further research in this sphere may be to assumed onto making an assess on risks (threats) and macroeconomic effects of foreign trade deterioration in the context of declining economic activity regarding importing countries of their domestic products, especially in the EU and the PRC, further weakening of external channels of investment and reducing the ability of businesses to innovate in deepening recessionary processes on the global and national levels.

Impact of macroeconomic indicators on housing prices

PurposeThis paper uses statistical analyses to quantify the effects of five major macroeconomic indicators, namely crude oil price, 30-year mortgage interest rate (IR), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and unemployment rate (UR), on housing prices over time.Design/methodology/approachHousing price is measured as housing price index (HPI) and is treated as a variable affecting itself. Actual housing sale prices in the Town of Amherst, New York State, USA, 1999-2008, and time-series data of the macroeconomic indicators, 2000-2017, were used in a vector autoregression statistical model to examine the data that show the greatest statistical significance and exert maximum quantitative effects of macroeconomic indicators on housing prices.FindingsThe analyses concluded that the 30-year IR and HPI have statistically significant effects on housing prices. IR has the highest effect, contributing 5.0 per cent of variance in the first month to 8.5 per cent in the twelfth. The UR has the next greatest influence followed by DJIA and CPI. The disturbance from HPI itself causes the greatest variability in future prices: up to 92.7 per cent in variance 1 month ahead and approximately 74.5 per cent 12 months ahead. This result indicates that current changes in house prices heavily influence people’s expectation of future prices. The total effect of the error variance of the macroeconomic indicators ranged from 7.3 per cent in the first month to 25.5 per cent in the twelfth.Originality/valueThe conclusions in this paper, along with related tables and figures, will be useful to the housing and real estate communities in planning their business for the next years.

Development of Science and Education as a Factor IN THE Formation of an Innovative Economy in Russia

The presented study examines the current problems of global economic development: the transition of economically developed countries to a new economic model associated with the formation and development of an innovative economy based on the generation, dissemination, and application of new knowledge. Aim . The study aims to formulate proposals for the formation of an innovative economy in the Russian Federation and to determine the effects of the development of science and education on the major macroeconomic indicators of countries and regions. Tasks . The authors determine the correlation between scientific and educational potential and the major macroeconomic indicators in Russian regions, including the average income of the population and level of unemployment; find and compare the ratio of the share of domestic spending on research and development in the gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita in Russia and countries with innovative economies; determine the dynamics of patent activity in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in recent years; recommend measures to develop science, education, and innovation in Russia. Methods . The methodology of the study is based on the analysis of statistics and macroeconomic indicators relating to Russia, countries of the European Union (EU), developed and developing countries in recent years. The authors use the databases of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service and the databases of the World Bank. Results . The correlation between the indicators of development of science and education and macroeconomic indicators in Russia and other countries is determined. It is established that the unevenness of development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation remains a significant economic problem. The study presents the dynamics of changes in the number of personnel engaged in research and development and the dynamics of changes in the domestic spending on research and development per researcher. The diagrams show that the high number of researchers is Russia’s competitive advantage that allows the country to maintain the competitiveness of its high-tech industries. The study provides a graphic representation of domestic spending on research and development in GDP and GDP per capita in Russia and countries with innovative economies and the dynamics of patent activity in Russian regions. Conclusions . The authors predict a positive scenario of economic development in Russia providing that the proposed recommendations on the development of science, education, and innovation are followed.

The Impacts of Macroeconomic News Announcements on Intraday Implied Volatility

This study examines the response of intraday options-implied volatilities to scheduled announcements of major macroeconomic indicators. By analyzing the KOSPI 200 options intraday data, we find that the abnormal implied volatility significantly increases around announcements of macroeconomic news and that the extent of the response is influenced by a variety of factors, including the type of macroeconomic indicators released, option type and economic conditions. Specifically, the increase in implied volatility around these announcements is more pronounced for puts than for calls. These effects are also more pronounced in the crisis and post-crisis periods than in the pre-crisis period. Monetary policy announcements have a more substantial impact on implied volatility than other announcements, even after controlling for news surprise components. Finally, the impact appears to be greater for policy rate hikes than for policy rate cuts.

ENERGY SAVING AND INTENSIFICATION OF PRODUCTION

The report analyzes the role and importance of energy conservation for Georgia. Based on concrete materials, the effectiveness of social labor and energy savings on gross domestic product (GDP) is comparable to each other. It is said that the reduction of GDP energy efficiency by 1% is almost the same, and in more than a few years, the result of GDP increase is more than the same as the productivity of public labor. In this regard, the report describes the level and dynamics of major macroeconomic indicators of the economic development of Georgia for 2013-2016. Set up events to improve the situation.

Economic security as a factor of the stable development of a state

The purpose of the research. The aim of the research is to define and study the increasing role of the economic safety in the national economic reforming. Methodology. The methodological background of the research is the dialectical method and the modern concept of managing economic security. The comparative analysis has been done to analyse the state of the economic security, while synthesis was used to study the functioning of the economy in Ukraine. Results. The role of the economic security of the economy reforming of Ukraine has been described in the research. Moreover, the transformational restructuring and growth of the major macroeconomic indicators has been presented. During this research the internal and external threats are systematized, and the state tasks to stabilize security factors are defined. It also characterized the legislative position of integrated analysis of the of economic security level through the integral index of the indicators, which reflect the state of the main components, such as: financial, innovation, investment, foreign economic, social and others. The role of strategic planning in the management of the security of the national economy has been described. The influence of small and medium business on improving the level of economic security is evaluated. The interrelation of national interests, threats to economic security and state policy priorities are presented. It also shows the ways of strengthening the foreign economic cooperation through increasing the volume of export-oriented products, close interconnections with the European Union, foreign investment in fixed capital, which will facilitate the modernization of enterprises. Practical meaning. The grounded outcomes of the stable development of the economy in Ukraine through the increasing the economic safety of its main components are presented. These outcomes can be used as a ground for the further research, as well as in practice and studies within the discipline by the scholars and managers, students, postgraduate students and PhD students. Prospects for further research. The lack of elaboration of the issues of the relationship between the degree of economic security and the stable development of the state, their certain incompatibility may become the base for the further studies, and need practical implementation.

The Current State of the Monetary Sphere of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan within the Framework of Changes in the Legislation

The article discusses the current state of the monetary – credit sphere in the former states of the Soviet Union. The authors note that, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which led to the defragmentation of the monetary system, is an important event in the formation of the financial sector in Central Asia. The single monetary and financial system, which was adapted to the conditions of the planned economy, had started rapidly falling apart. The result was a break of the traditionally existing economic ties.
 It is important to note that the monetary policy has a direct impact on the major macro-economic indicators such as GDP, employment and the level of prices. It is thus important to have a solid legal base. The accelerated formation of national monetary systems in Central Asian states has required the creation of genuinely independent emission center as the Central Banks of Central Asia. Since 1994, Central Asian governments have begun to carry out macroeconomic regulation, mutual settlement in the economy and emission activity.
 The next step was a reform of the banking system in Central Asia. At the beginning of the independence of the Central Asian states a legal framework was created and a transition was made to a two-tier banking system. According to the adopted laws in the countries of Central Asia, a two-tier banking system was formed, where the upper level was represented by the State Bank of the region (with emission rights), and the bottom were - commercial and government specialized. Creating second tier banks was a response to the needs of the Central Asian countries.