Major European Leagues Research Articles

Statistical Modeling of Football Players’ Transfer Fees Worldwide

Professional football clubs invest vast amounts of money in the recruitment of players. This article presents the latest advances in statistical modeling of the factors that market actors take into consideration to determine the transfer prices of professional football players. It extends to a global scale the econometric approach previously developed by the authors to evaluate the transfer prices of players under contract with clubs from the five major European leagues. The statistical technique used to build the model is multiple linear regression (MLR), with fees paid by clubs as an independent variable. The sample comprises over 8000 transactions of players transferred for money from clubs worldwide during the period stretching from July 2014 to March 2024. This paper shows that a statistical model can explain up to 85% of the differences in the transfer fees paid for players. Despite the specific cases and other possible distortions mentioned in the discussion, the use of a statistical model to determine player transfer prices is thus highly relevant on a global scale.

Futbolda Kaydedilen Gollerin Zaman Dilimlerine Göre Analizi: Beş Major Avrupa Ligi ve Türkiye Süper Liginin Değerlendirilmesi

Avrupa’nın beş majör ligi İngiltere PrmLig, Almanya BLiga, İspanya LaLiga, İtalya Serie-A ve Fransa Ligue-1 olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu araştırmanın amacı, 2017-2018 futbol sezonunda Türkiye Süper Ligi ile 5 majör ligde kaydedilen gollerin analizini gerçekleştirmektir. Tslig (306), Bliga (306), Prmlig (380), Laliga (380), Ligue-1 (380) ve Serie-A'da (380) olmak üzere toplam 2132 maç analiz edildi. Sezon boyunca tüm Avrupa liglerinde ve her bir lig özelinde kaydedilen toplam ve ortalama gol değerleri, maçın ilk ve ikinci yarılarında, 15 dakikalık klasik zaman dilimlerinde ve uzatma dakikalarında kaydedilen goller (45dk+ ve 90dk+) kayıt altına alındı. Tanımlayıcı istatistik kullanılarak ortalama, frekans ve yüzde dağılımları ortaya konuldu. Ligler arası analizler için Kruskal Wallis testi uygulandı. Gruplar arası fark varsa Bonferroni düzeltmesi yapılarak Dunn Testi gerçekleştirildi. Araştırmanın sonucunda; TsLig (906gol), BLiga (855gol), PrmLig (1018gol), LaLiga (1024gol), Ligue-1 (1017gol) ve Serie-A’da (1033 gol) olmak üzere toplam 5853 gol kaydedildi. Gol ortalamasının en yüksek olduğu ligin TsLig olduğu tespit edilirken (2,96/maç); Gollerin %56’lık bölümü maçların ikinci yarılarında gerçekleşmiştir (p<0.001). Klasik periyotlamalara göre en fazla gol ise 76 dk - maç sonu diliminde gerçekleşmiştir (%23). Liglerin tümünde gollerin %7,4’lük bölümü ilk ve ikinci devrelerin uzatma dakikalarında atıldı (413gol). Türkiye Süper Ligi 100 gol ile hem her iki devrenin sonlarında hem de uzatma dakikalarının toplamında en çok gol kaydedilen lig oldu. Bu durum özellikle oyuncuların fiziksel kapasitelerinin yetersizliğine ve maç sonunda olası konsantrasyon kayıplarına bağlanabilir.

FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022: Solutions to the Physical Fitness Challenge.

In 2022, the FIFA World Cup has been scheduled to take place in Qatar in November and December, months which coincide with the in-season period of the European soccer season. This will be challenging for the staff of the participating national teams and the domestic clubs to which participating players are attached. The aim of this letter to the editor is to propose solutions on how to manage the associated challenges. Regular training and competition over the course of a season in European professional soccer is generally characterized by a pre-competition preparation period of five to six weeks, followed by two competition phases, interspersed with a winter break (Eliakim et al., 2018). Certain leagues such as the English Premier League do not typically have a winter break meaning that games are played almost continuously across the season. During World Cup years, there is usually an average of four to five weeks between the end of national domestic championships and the start of the World Cup tournament (Table 1, Figure 1) which traditionally takes place during the off-season period. However, in 2022, the FIFA World Cup has been scheduled to take place in November and December, months which coincide with the in-season period of the European soccer season (Figure 1). With the World Cup being staged during this part of the season, many national team players (notably those in the major European Leagues) will have just one week of preparation between the last match of their domestic leagues and the start of the World Cup tournament (November 20th, 2022). More precisely, the major European soccer leagues will interrupt match schedules between November 9th and 13th with differences in the number of games completed at this time of the season ranging from 14 to 17 across the various leagues (Table 2). The physical and mental demands placed on modern professional players have steadily risen over recent years due to an increase in the number of matches played during congested periods across the season (Anderson et al., 2016). Since the number of matches is not evenly distributed across the typical 40-week season, players can often compete in as many as three matches in a seven-day period. Aside from the physical and mental demands that are imposed during a match, players might experience insufficient recovery between these games; in part due to extensive travelling which can disrupt the sleep/wake cycle (Lastella et al., 2019). Indeed, poor quality of sleep and the stress induced by a match can negatively affect physical fitness and may even increase the risk of sustaining injuries and/or infections (Clemente et al., 2021) in the period leading up to the World Cup. National teams are composed of players from different leagues who have varying levels of exposure to match-play (e.g., starters, non-starters) in terms of the average weekly volume of soccer matches at their clubs (“Rapports - Observatoire du football CIES”). Moreover, both starters and non-starters are exposed to different external match and training loads (Anderson et al., 2016). External loads have previously been defined as the overall volume of activity that a player performs during both training sessions and matches (Ravé et al., 2020). There is evidence that this metric correlates with a player’s physical fitness status (Clemente et al., 2019) and their injury risk (Malone et al., 2017). Accordingly, it will be challenging for national teams to manage the fitness of players such that they are physically ready to play at the World Cup tournament. This is especially applicable to individuals who play in the major European leagues and we note a significant contrast between European match schedules and those on other continents. For example, in Major League Soccer (MLS) in North America, match schedules will be interrupted from November 5th, 15 days before the World Cup tournament begins. Similarly, in the Japanese J-League in Asia, Saudi Pro League and Qatar Star League, matches will be interrupted one month before the World Cup tournament begins, leaving more time for players on these continents to prepare. It is also important to note that the French, Spanish and English domestic championships will resume their match schedules on December 27th which is just ten days after the end of the World Cup (Figure 1). Clubs will clearly want their players to return uninjured and with sufficient fitness levels to resume domestic competition but these goals could be compromised by the aforementioned scheduling of the World Cup tournament.

Short- and long-term effects of transfers on football clubs' sport performance

One of the important elements of football club quality management is the sale and purchase of player’s cards. These activities have important implications for the financial and sport performance of football clubs. The purpose of this paper is to determine how players transfers affect football teams’ sport performance. Data on transfers and sport performance came from available databases. They covered the period from 2004/05 to 2018/19 (before the pandemic). For data analysis, a series of hierarchical analysis of regression were conducted. The results show that there is an effect of transfers on football teams’ sport performance but it explains a relatively small amount of football club’s sport performance. The impact from a transfer in a given year affects sport performance not only in the same year, but also in subsequent years. However, the effect of transfer disappears when control variables are introduced. Thus, the general conclusion from the study is that there is no overall effect of transfers on teams’ sport performance. The analyses were conducted only on clubs from the 5 major European leagues and football clubs that were continuously present in the top division. Due to the fact that it included mainly the strongest clubs, the results are relevant for clubs wishing to build up their sporting position on the European market. It is less relevant for weaker clubs. The study consisted of using data over a period of several years, which provides an opportunity to trace the dynamics of change and long-term effects, which is rarely analyzed in the sports literature.

A Longitudinal Study on the Evolution of the Four Main Football Leagues Using Artificial Intelligence: Analysis of the Differences in English Premier League Teams

ABSTRACT Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the evolution of the four most important leagues and to identify if there are differences between the English Premier League and the rest of the European leagues. Methods: Each team was characterized according to a set of 52 variables including offensive, defensive, and buildup 10 variables that were computed from OPTA’s on-ball event records of the matches for main national leagues between the 2014 and 2018 seasons. To test the evolution of leagues, the t-SNE dimensionality reduction technique was used. To better understand the differences between leagues and teams, the most discriminating variables were obtained as a set of rules discovered by RIPPER, a machine learning algorithm. Results: The evolution of playing styles has meant that teams in the major European leagues seem to 15 be approaching homogeneity of technical-tactical behavior. Despite this, a distinction can be seen between the English teams concerning the rest of the teams in the other leagues, determined by fewer free kicks, fewer long passes but more vertical, more errors in ball control but greater success in dribbling. Conclusions: These results provide important knowledge and practical applications because of the study of the different variables and performance indicators among the best football championships

Econometric Approach to Assessing the Transfer Fees and Values of Professional Football Players

Billions of euros are invested every year by professional football clubs for the recruitment of players. How do market actors decide prices? This paper presents an econometric model unveiling the key factors coming into play in determining fees on the transfer market for professional football (soccer) players. The statistical technique used to build the model is multiple linear regression (MLR), with fees paid by clubs as an independent variable. The sample comprises over 2000 transactions of players transferred for money from clubs in the five major European leagues during the period stretching from July 2012 to November 2021. This paper notably highlights the importance of taking into consideration the remaining duration of contracts binding players with the club to which they belong, a factor often neglected in the existing literature. It also shows that a statistical model can explain over 80% of the differences in the transfer fees paid for players. This paper reveals various applications of the approach developed for the football industry to both assess and predict football players’ transfer fees and values: transfer negotiations, club sales or purchases, bank credit, fund raising, financial planning and communication, legal disputes, etc.

Football is becoming more predictable; network analysis of 88 thousand matches in 11 major leagues.

In recent years, excessive monetization of football and professionalism among the players have been argued to have affected the quality of the match in different ways. On the one hand, playing football has become a high-income profession and the players are highly motivated; on the other hand, stronger teams have higher incomes and therefore afford better players leading to an even stronger appearance in tournaments that can make the game more imbalanced and hence predictable. To quantify and document this observation, in this work, we take a minimalist network science approach to measure the predictability of football over 26 years in major European leagues. We show that over time, the games in major leagues have indeed become more predictable. We provide further support for this observation by showing that inequality between teams has increased and the home-field advantage has been vanishing ubiquitously. We do not include any direct analysis on the effects of monetization on football’s predictability or therefore, lack of excitement; however, we propose several hypotheses which could be tested in future analyses.

Measuring football clubs' human capital: analytical and dynamic models based on footballers' life cycles

PurposeThis research proposes analytical valuation models throughout football players' life cycles based on crowd valuations from social media to produce dynamic sporting human capital disclosures, and therefore, supplying further useful information to capture the intellectual capital (IC) of football clubs.Design/methodology/approachThis work is carried out using an econometric model that includes 658 observations of crowd judgments versus their transfer fees, for the best footballers of the three major European Leagues between 2006 and 2018. To make the model more parsimonious, the set of independent variables that really add value has been found across the stepwise methodology.FindingsThe significant differences between both models are analyzed, integrating previous academic literature based on the existence of negotiation elements in prices, and in the capacity of crowdsourcing to explain assessments of football players, from a dynamic perspective, alongside a new variable: injuries, which has not been explained before.Originality/valueThe broader assessments from crowdsourcing should be integrated in intellectual capital disclosures (ICD), from a critical, novel and dynamic perspective, creating a virtuous cycle between managers and fans, to increase transparency of financial information for stakeholders and society.

Relationship between procedure and result indicators during a football season in the five major European leagues

The aim of this paper is to find out the relationship between the procedure indicators and result (goals scored and points accumulated) by each of the teams in male elite football. To this end, we have analyzed the performance of the five major European leagues during the 2018-19 season (98 teams and 3,652 performances). Different Performance Indicators (IR) have been employed: a) the result indicators: goals scored and received, and points obtained; b) the Procedure Indicators (IP): b1) for the offensive finishing phase: shots, centers, key passes and scoring first; b2) for the creation attack phase: the passes attempted and performed, and ball possession (%), and b3) in the defensive phase: recoveries and fouls committed in Zones 4-5 of the field. A multiple regression analysis explained 83.2% of the variance in the relationship between points and the predictor variables, as well as 82.9% of the number of goals scored. The main results of the study show that in the Spanish league the goals correlate less with the accumulated points and ball possession, number of key passes and scoring first are the variables that most correlate with the accumulation of goals and points at the end of the season.

Social pressure in the stadiums: Do agents change behavior without crowd support?

Abstract Social pressure may have relevant consequences in many contexts but it is hard to evaluate it empirically. In this paper we exploit a natural experiment in soccer to provide clear evidence of its effects. We aim to study how social pressure from the crowd in a stadium affects both players and referees. While in normal matches crowd support may be correlated to a host of variables affecting the outcome of interest, we exploit the fact that after the health emergency for the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, soccer matches in top European Leagues have been allowed only behind closed doors, that is, without spectators in the stadiums. We use data of first and second division of five major European Leagues (Germany, Spain, England, Italy and Portugal) for the last 10 seasons and compare – using a differences-in-differences analysis – several outcomes (determined by players’ performance and referees’ decisions) of matches played with crowd support to the same outcomes when matches were played without crowd. We find considerable effects of the pressure from the crowd: while with the support of the crowd a considerable home advantage emerges in various measures of performance (points, goals, shots, etc.), this advantage is almost halved when matches are played behind closed doors. Similar effects are found for the behavior of referees: decisions of fouls, yellow cards, red cards and penalties that tend to favor home teams in normal matches, are much more balanced without the crowd pressing on referees. The evidence we provide strongly supports the idea that social pressure has intense effects on agents’ behavior.

Social Pressure in the Stadiums: Do Agents Change Behavior Without Crowd Support?

Social pressure may have relevant consequences in many contexts but it is hard to evaluate it empirically. In this paper we exploit a natural experiment in soccer to provide clear evidence of its effects. We aim to study how social pressure from the crowd in a stadium affects both players and referees. While in normal matches crowd support may be correlated to a host of variables affecting the outcome of interest, we exploit the fact that after the health emergency for the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, soccer matches in top European Leagues have been allowed only behind closed doors, that is, without spectators in the stadiums.We use data of first and second division of 5 major European Leagues (Germany, Spain, England, Italy and Portugal) for the last 10 championships and compare several outcomes (determined by players' performance and referees' decisions) of matches played with crowd support to the same outcomes when matches were played without crowd. We find considerable effects of the pressure from the crowd: while with the support of the crowd a considerable home advantage emerges in various measures of performance (points, goals, shots, etc.), this advantage is almost halved when matches are behind closed doors.Similar effects are found for the behavior of referees: decisions of fouls, yellow cards, red cards and penalties that tend to favor home teams in normal matches, are much more balanced without crowd pressing on referees. The evidence we provide strongly supports the idea that social pressure has intense effects on agents' behavior.

Analysis of elite soccer players' performance before and after signing a new contract.

The aim of the current study was to analyse performance differences of football players 2-years prior and the year after signing a new contract (the following year) while taking playing position, nationality, player’s role, team ability, and age into account. The sample was comprised of 249 players (n = 109 defenders, n = 113 midfielders; and n = 27 forwards) from four of the major European Leagues (Bundesliga, English FA Premier League, Ligue 1, and La Liga) during the seasons 2008 to 2015. The dependent variables studied were: shooting accuracy, defense (the sum of defensive actions, tackles, blocks, and interceptions), yellow cards, red cards, passing accuracy, tackle success, and minutes played per match. Two-step cluster analysis allowed classifying the sample into three groups of defenders (national important, foreign important, and less important players) and four groups of midfielders and forwards (national important, foreign important, national less important, and foreign less important players). Magnitude Based Inference (MBI) was used to test the differences between player’s performances during the years of analyses. The main results (very likely and most likely effects) showed better performance in the year prior to signing a new contract than the previous year for foreign important defenders (decreased number of red cards), national important midfielders (increased number of minutes played), foreign important forwards (increased minutes played and defense), and national important forwards (increased minutes played). In addition, performance was lower the year after signing the contract compared to the previous one for less important defenders (decreasing defense), national less important midfielders (decreased minutes played), and foreign less important forwards (decreased defense). On the other hand, the players showed better performance in defense and more minutes played the year after signing the contract for less important defenders, national less important midfielders, and foreign less important forwards. These results may assist coaches to decide on when a new contract should be signed or the duration of the contract.

Player migration and opportunity: Examining the efficacy of the UEFA home-grown rule in six European football leagues

The introduction of UEFAs home-grown rule occurred for the start of the 2006–2007 season with the full quota in place from the 2008–2009 season, which imposed quotas on European clubs. From 2008, clubs are required to have at least 8 players classified as home-grown in the 25-player squad, up from 4 in 2006–2007 and 6 in 2007–2008. This study examines the efficacy of this rule across the six major European leagues (England, France, Germany, Holland, Italy and Spain) in relation to playing opportunities (minutes played and appearances) between 1999 and 2015. This was also examined in relation to age. Since the home-grown rule was introduced for the six nations hosting the major leagues, the rule had different impacts by nationality. Only Germany saw significant increases in the proportion of minutes played by their players when comparing the periods before and after the home-grown rules were imposed. Holland, albeit seeing a slight decrease overall, saw significant increases for playing time for under 21s and 22- to 25-year olds. England and Italy were the two nations where statistically significant decreases in indigenous playing opportunities were recorded since the home-grown rules were introduced.

Home advantage in football: Examining the effect of scoring first on match outcome in the five major European leagues

The aim of the current study was to examine the importance of scoring the first goal on the match outcome in football and to determine if this influence depends on the minute in which the first goal is scored. The sample consisted in all the matches played in the season 2014/2015 in the English FA Premier League (n=380), French Ligue 1 (n=380), Spanish La Liga (n=380), Italian Serie A (n=380) and German Bundesliga (n=306). Data were examined using classification tree analysis and a linear regression analysis. The results showed that home teams scored first in 57.8 % of matches and went on the obtain 84.85% of points won in these games. In contrast when the away team scored first, they obtained only 76.25% of subsequent points. These differences were further influenced by the quality of the teams and by the match period in which the first goal was scored. Three independent variables were significant factors on the final outcome: the quality of the opposition (p<0.001), the minute in which the first goal is scored (p<0.01) and the team scoring first (p<0.001). The teams that scored first ended games scoring an average 1.88 goals more than their opponents. Coaches can use this information to establish objectives for players and teams during practices and matches and can be prepared for these different competitive scenarios.

Goal scoring patterns in major European soccer leagues

Soccer is a team sport that requires prolonged, high-intensity, intermittent exercise and evidence from previous studies has shown that players experience fatigue toward the end of a match. Some preliminary observations indicate that goal scoring increases over time during the game; however, these preliminary results were obtained analysing minor soccer leagues and/or using a limited amount of matches. The aim of this study was to examine the goal scoring patterns in four major European leagues (English Premier League, French Football Ligue 1, Italian Serie A and Spanish Football Liga) across three consecutive seasons (2008–09, 2009–10 and 2010–11). Chi square analysis revealed a significantly (p < 0.001) higher goal scoring frequency in the second half (55.1 %) compared to the first half (44.9 %). The 15-min interval analysis highlighted a significant (p < 0.001) upward trend in the number of goals scored as time progressed (13.7, 15.1, 16.2, 17.7, 17.2 and 20.2 %, for 0–15, 15–30, 30–45, 45–60, 60–75 and 75–90 intervals respectively). The main finding of the present study is that in the four major European soccer leagues investigated the amount of goals scored is greater in the second half, with the scoring rate being highest in the last 15-min of a match. Fatigue occurring during the game may play a role; however, fatigue alone cannot explain the differences. The state of the games result and the reduced time available for scoring are other potential contributing factors to the increased goal scoring patterns observed in the latter stages of the game.

Spatial mobilities, football players and the World Cup: evidence from the English premier league

The mobilities of elite football players has become one of the defining features of football in the contemporary age, where an international transfer market has been lubricated by the ‘Bosman’ ruling (1995) but made a reality by ‘pull’ factors – such as high salaries and the global esteem offered by globally renowned leagues across the world. This article uses data drawn from players’ domicile across the 1986, 1998 and 2010 World Cups to test two hypotheses. The first of these is that on a global scale, leagues recruit from local regions, and the second is that the English premier league falls behind other major European leagues (in Italy, Spain, France and Germany) in the recruitment of the transnational capitalist class of elite players. Of these hypotheses, the first was refuted and the second accepted.

The French Exception

Currently, professional football in Europe is in a deep financial crisis. Amidst the five major European leagues (England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain), only France is not in a bad situation despite this country suffering from a low level of the demand from fans and a weakness in the urban system. The aim of this article is to show how the better regulation of the French organization explains this success. This organization is based upon three pillars: solidarity (revenue sharing), training (by all clubs), and financing control. Finally, the question is to know whether such a system should be extended throughout Europe.