Major Environmental Drivers Research Articles

Vulnerability and driving mechanism of four typical grasslands in China under the coupled impacts of climate change and human activities

Understanding of how different grasslands types respond to climate change and human activities across different spatial and temporal dimensions is crucial for devising effective strategies to prevent grasslands degradation. In this study, we developed a novel vulnerability assessment model for grasslands that intricately evaluates the combined impact of climate change and human activities. We then applied this model to analyze the vulnerability and driving mechanism of four representative Chinese grasslands to climate change and human activities. Our findings indicate that the vulnerability of the four grasslands would show a pattern of higher in the west and lower in the east under the influence of climate change alone. However, when human activities are factored in, the vulnerability across the four grasslands tends to homogenize, with human activities notably reducing the vulnerability of alpine grasslands in the west and, conversely, increasing the vulnerability of grasslands in the east. Furthermore, our study reveals distinct major environmental drivers of grasslands vulnerability across different regions. The two western alpine grasslands exhibit higher vulnerability to annual mean temperature and isothermality compared to the eastern temperate grasslands, while their vulnerability to precipitation of the coldest quarter is lower than that of the eastern temperate grasslands. These findings are helpful for understanding the multifaceted causes and mechanisms of grasslands degradation, providing a scientific foundation for the sustainable management and conservation of grassland resources.

Biogeographic patterns of Pacific white‐sided dolphins based on long‐term passive acoustic records

AbstractAimThis study investigates the biogeographic patterns of Pacific white‐sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) in the Eastern North Pacific based on long‐term passive acoustic records. We aim to elucidate the ecological and behavioural significance of distinct echolocation click types and their implications for population delineation, geographic distribution, environmental adaptation and management.LocationEastern North Pacific Ocean.Time Period2005–2021.Major Taxa StudiedPacific white‐sided dolphin.MethodsOver 50 cumulative years of passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) data from 14 locations were analyzed using a deep neural network to classify two distinct Pacific white‐sided dolphin echolocation click types. The study assessed spatial, diel, seasonal and interannual patterns of the two click types, correlating them with major environmental drivers such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and modeling long‐term spatial‐seasonal patterns.ResultsDistinct spatial, diel and seasonal patterns were observed for each click type. Significant biogeographical shifts in presence were observed following the 2014–2016 marine heatwave event.Main ConclusionsDistinct spatial distributions of the two click types support the hypothesis that Pacific white‐sided dolphins produce population‐specific echolocation clicks. Seasonal and diel patterns suggest spatiotemporal niche partitioning between the populations in Southern California. Interannual changes, notably initiated during the 2014–2016 marine heatwave, indicate climate‐driven range expansions and contractions related to gradual tropicalization of the Southern California Bight.

High-Resolution Estimates of N2O Emissions from Inland Waters and Wetlands in China.

Inland waters (rivers, lakes, and reservoirs) and wetlands (marshes and coastal wetlands) represent large and continuous sources of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, in view of adequate biomass and anaerobic conditions. Considerable uncertainties remain in quantifying spatially explicit N2O emissions from aquatic systems, attributable to the limitations of models and a lack of comprehensive data sets. Herein, we conducted a synthesis of 1659 observations of N2O emission rates to determine the major environmental drivers across five aquatic systems. A framework for spatially explicit estimates of N2O emissions in China was established, employing a data-driven approach that upscaled from site-specific N2O fluxes to robust multiple-regression models. Results revealed the effectiveness of models incorporating soil organic carbon and water content for marshes and coastal wetlands, as well as water nitrate concentration and dissolved organic carbon for lakes, rivers, and reservoirs for predicting emissions. Total national N2O emissions from inland waters and wetlands were 1.02 × 105 t N2O yr-1, with contributions from marshes (36.33%), rivers (27.77%), lakes (25.27%), reservoirs (6.47%), and coastal wetlands (4.16%). Spatially, larger emissions occurred in the Songliao River Basin and Continental River Basin, primarily due to their substantial terrestrial biomass. This study offers a vital national inventory of N2O emissions from inland waters and wetlands in China, providing paradigms for the inventorying work in other countries and insights to formulate effective mitigation strategies for climate change.

Fish diversity, composition, and guild structure influenced by the environmental drivers in a small temporarily closed tropical estuary from the western coast of India.

Globally, small temporarily closed estuaries are the least considered for fisheries assessment and management due to a low scientific priority and regional importance. However, these ecosystems are highly exposed to anthropogenic pressures and may deteriorate without assessing its aquatic resources. In this study, fish diversity and guild structure of Chettuva-a temporarily closed tropical estuary in the western coast of India-was investigated. A total of 70 fish taxa belonging to 32 families were recorded with the quantitative predominance of families; Mugilidae, Cichlidae, and Leiognathidae. Family Carangidae had the highest species diversity (seven species), followed by Clupeidae and Mugilidae (five species). Ecological guild assessment revealed thatthe immigrating marine fish species (marineestuarine opportunist (34 species) and marineestuarinedependent (13 species)) dominated the guild structure over theestuarine resident species (seven species). The marine species were found all along the saline gradient and throughout the sampling period indicating the salinity ingress towards the estuarine zone throughout the year. Carnivores and omnivores were the major feeding mode functional guilds in terms of diversity, whereas detritivores dominated in numerical abundance throughout the salinity gradient. The major environmental drivers of the fish assemblages in the estuary were salinity and chlorophyll a. The distribution of freshwater fishes and estuarine resident species was connected with the rising primary productivity as the majority of fishes rely on the algae for feeding, whereas marineestuarinedependent and marineestuarine opportunist species occurred in areas with the highest salinity concentrations.

Sorghum producer yield contest: A synthesis-analysis of major management and environmental drivers

Sorghum producer yield contest: A synthesis-analysis of major management and environmental drivers

The patterns and driving forces of dengue invasions in China

BackgroundGlobal connectivity and environmental change pose continuous threats to dengue invasions from worldwide to China. However, the intrinsic relationship on introduction and outbreak risks of dengue driven by the landscape features are still unknown. This study aimed to map the patterns on source-sink relation of dengue cases and assess the driving forces for dengue invasions in China.MethodsWe identified the local and imported cases (2006–2020) and assembled the datasets on environmental conditions. The vector auto-regression model was applied to detect the cross-relations of source-sink patterns. We selected the major environmental drivers via the Boruta algorithm to assess the driving forces in dengue outbreak dynamics by applying generalized additive models. We reconstructed the internal connections among imported cases, local cases, and external environmental drivers using the structural equation modeling.ResultsFrom 2006 to 2020, 81,652 local dengue cases and 12,701 imported dengue cases in China were reported. The hotspots of dengue introductions and outbreaks were in southeast and southwest China, originating from South and Southeast Asia. Oversea-imported dengue cases, as the Granger-cause, were the initial driver of the dengue dynamic; the suitable local bio-socioecological environment is the fundamental factor for dengue epidemics. The Bio8 [odds ratio (OR) = 2.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.67–2.68], Bio9 (OR = 291.62, 95% CI: 125.63–676.89), Bio15 (OR = 4.15, 95% CI: 3.30–5.24), normalized difference vegetation index in March (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.06–1.51) and July (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00–1.07), and the imported cases are the major drivers of dengue local transmissions (OR = 4.79, 95% CI: 4.34–5.28). The intermediary effect of an index on population and economic development to local cases via the path of imported cases was detected in the dengue dynamic system.ConclusionsDengue outbreaks in China are triggered by introductions of imported cases and boosted by landscape features and connectivity. Our research will contribute to developing nature-based solutions for dengue surveillance, mitigation, and control from a socio-ecological perspective based on invasion ecology theories to control and prevent future dengue invasion and localization.Graphical

Distinct distribution patterns of the abundant and rare bacteria in high plateau hot spring sediments

The diversity and distribution patterns of the abundant and rare microbial sub-communities in hot spring ecosystems and their assembly mechanisms are poorly understood. The present study investigated the diversity and distribution patterns of the total, abundant, conditionally rare, and always rare taxa in the low- and moderate-temperature hot spring sediments on the Tibetan Plateau based on high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and explored their major environmental drivers. The diversity of these four bacterial taxa showed no significant change between the low-temperature and moderate-temperature hot spring sediments, whereas the bacterial compositions were obviously different. Stochasticity dominated the bacterial sub-community assemblages, while heterogeneous selection also played an important role in shaping the abundant and conditionally rare taxa between the low-temperature and moderate-temperature hot spring sediments. No significant difference in the topological properties of co-occurrence networks was found between the conditionally rare and abundant taxa, and the connections between the paired operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were almost positive. The diversity of the total, abundant, and conditionally rare taxa was governed by the salinity of hot spring sediments, while that of the always rare taxa was determined by the content of S element. In contrast, temperature had significant direct effect on the composition of the total, abundant, and conditionally rare taxa, but relatively weak influence on that of the always rare taxa. Besides, salinity was another major environmental factor driving the composition of the abundant and rare sub-communities in the hot spring sediments. These results reveal the assembly processes and major environmental drivers that shaped different bacterial sub-communities in the hot spring sediments on the Tibetan Plateau, and indicate the importance of conditionally rare taxa in constructing bacterial communities. These findings enhance the current understanding of the ecological mechanisms maintaining the ecosystem stability and services in extreme environment.

Understanding and predicting harmful algal blooms in a changing climate: A trait‐based framework

AbstractThe worldwide proliferation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) both in freshwater and marine ecosystems make understanding and predicting their occurrence urgent. Trait‐based approaches, where the focus is on functional traits, have been successful in explaining community structure and dynamics in diverse ecosystems but have not been applied extensively to HABs. The existing trait compilations suggest that HAB taxa differ from non HAB taxa in key traits that determine their responses to major environmental drivers. Multi‐trait comparisons between HAB‐forming and other phytoplankton taxa, as well as within the HAB groups to characterize interspecific and intraspecific differences will help better define ecological niches of different HAB taxa, develop trait‐based mechanistic models, and better identify environmental conditions that would likely lead to HABs. Building databases of HAB traits and using them in diverse statistical and mechanistic models will increase our ability to predict the HAB occurrence, composition, and severity under changing conditions, including the anthropogenic global change.

Environmental and economic assessment of a steel wall fabricated by wire-based directed energy deposition

Over the past few decades, adoption of different Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes has gained momentum in the manufacturing industry. One such emerging AM process is wire-based directed energy deposition. Environmental impacts and costs are important criteria for adoption of any manufacturing process. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of Wire and Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) using Life Cycle assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) methodologies. In this paper, an integrated methodology to conduct a cradle-to-gate LCA based on the guidelines of ISO 14044 and LCC based on IEC 60300–3–3 standards is proposed. A case study of a single steel wall manufactured by WAAM was analysed. The environmental impacts and production costs for wire-based directed energy deposition process were compared to laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) and Computer Numeric Control (CNC) milling processes. For the steel wall analysed, CNC milling was the most economical and ecological option followed by the wire-based directed energy deposition and LPBF. However, the performance of a process depends on product complexity and the manufacturing process’s material efficiency. Raw material production and labour were identified as major environmental hotspot and cost driver, respectively, in wire-based directed energy deposition. The methodology used in this paper can be extended to other manufacturing processes. The results of this study can help manufacturers in selecting manufacturing processes based on environmental impacts and production costs

Benthic community resilience in two differently impacted tropical estuaries: Taxonomic vs functional approaches

Estuaries experience incessant modifications due to various stressors causing shifts in the benthic species community structure and ecosystem functioning. Two tropical estuaries along Northwest India, exposed to varied intensities of anthropogenic perturbations, were sampled seasonally for two consecutive years. Specific aims were to assess, compare and link the macroinvertebrate taxonomic and functional structures, to evaluate the resilience of estuarine benthic ecosystems by employing the multiple-trait approach and to identify major influencing environmental drivers for patterns discerned. Taxonomic and functional compositions in both the estuaries produced varied segregations along the estuarine zones, driven primarily by natural estuarine gradients like salinity and sediment grain size, despite extant anthropogenic stressors. Multiple traits contributed to the variance in benthic functioning. The Biological Trait Analysis (BTA) revealed that both the estuaries had similar trait compositions in the lower zones, while the middle and upper zones of each estuary presented different permutations of traits. The functional complexity at different estuarine sections was influenced by the variability in taxonomic composition and species dominance. However, relationships between Functional Diversity (FD) and species diversity were equivocal, signifying that taxonomic diversity may not be an efficient proxy for benthic functioning. As the zones had differential stressors and disturbance acts as a filter, discrete functional trait profiles of opportunistic traits were visualized along the potentially impacted zones. Thus, the less impacted lower zones had multiple traits, while the mid-upper zones that were subject to both anthropogenic and natural stressors had fewer traits. A more consistent functional structure, higher functional redundancy and substantial proportion of recolonisation traits (small-sized, short-lived, motile forms) suggested better resilience in one study estuary than the other one. Our study advocates that the inclusion of both taxonomical and functional metrics can provide in-depth inferences related to the macrobenthic community resilience and this coupled approach is imperative for effective future management programs.

Ecological niche modelling for delineating livestock ecotypes and exploring environmental genomic adaptation: The example of Ethiopian village chicken

In evolutionary ecology, an “ecotype” is a population that is genetically adapted to specific environmental conditions. Environmental and genetic characterisation of livestock ecotypes can play a crucial role in conservation and breeding improvement, particularly to achieve climate resilience. However, livestock ecotypes are often arbitrarily defined without a detailed characterisation of their agro-ecologies. In this study, we employ a novel integrated approach, combining ecological niche modelling (ENM) with genomics, to delineate ecotypes based on environmental characterisation of population habitats and unravel the signatures of adaptive selection in the ecotype genomes. The method was applied on 25 Ethiopian village chicken populations representing diverse agro-climatic conditions. ENM identified six key environmental drivers of adaptation and delineated 12 ecotypes. Within-ecotype selection signature analyses (using Hp and iHS methods) identified 1,056 candidate sweep regions (SRs) associated with diverse biological processes. While most SRs are ecotype-specific, the biological pathways perturbed by overlapping genes are largely shared among ecotypes. A few biological pathways were shared amongst most ecotypes and the genes involved showed functions important for scavenging chickens, e.g., neuronal development/processes, immune response, vision development, and learning. Genotype-environment association using redundancy analysis (RDA) allowed for correlating ∼33% of the SRs with major environmental drivers. Inspection of some strong candidate genes from selection signature analysis and RDA showed highly relevant functions in relation to the major environmental drivers of corresponding ecotypes. This integrated approach offers a powerful tool to gain insight into the complex processes of adaptive evolution including the genotype × environment (G × E) interactions.

Understanding Sources and Drivers of Size-Resolved Aerosol in the High Arctic Islands of Svalbard Using a Receptor Model Coupled with Machine Learning.

Atmospheric aerosols are important drivers of Arctic climate change through aerosol–cloud–climate interactions. However, large uncertainties remain on the sources and processes controlling particle numbers in both fine and coarse modes. Here, we applied a receptor model and an explainable machine learning technique to understand the sources and drivers of particle numbers from 10 nm to 20 μm in Svalbard. Nucleation, biogenic, secondary, anthropogenic, mineral dust, sea salt and blowing snow aerosols and their major environmental drivers were identified. Our results show that the monthly variations in particles are highly size/source dependent and regulated by meteorology. Secondary and nucleation aerosols are the largest contributors to potential cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, particle number with a diameter larger than 40 nm as a proxy) in the Arctic. Nonlinear responses to temperature were found for biogenic, local dust particles and potential CCN, highlighting the importance of melting sea ice and snow. These results indicate that the aerosol factors will respond to rapid Arctic warming differently and in a nonlinear fashion.

Resource supply and organismal dominance are associated with high secondary production in temperate agricultural streams

Abstract Agricultural land‐use affects the environmental and biological characteristics of stream ecosystems through multiple pathways including nutrient and pesticide contamination, riparian clear‐cutting and hydromorphological degradation. These changes in the abiotic environment can have a direct effect on the productivity of macroinvertebrate communities through environmental filtering and via altered resource conditions encompassing a shift from allochthonous to autochthonous primary production and changes in elemental stoichiometry and food quality. Additionally, macroinvertebrate productivity can be affected indirectly via biological mechanisms, such as changes in species interactions, richness, competition, and predation. We studied the effects of agriculture on structural and functional descriptors of macroinvertebrate communities by assessing environmental characteristics and macroinvertebrate secondary production (MSP), biomass and density in two forested and two agricultural streams and investigated underlying biotic mechanisms. On average, MSP was 1.6–3.6, biomass 2.8–6.2 and density 5–13 times higher in agricultural than in forested streams. This pattern was associated with higher nutrient concentrations, standing crops of riparian herbaceous vegetation, suspended particulate organic carbon, quantity and quality of epilithic biofilms and chlorophyll‐a concentrations in seston and biofilm of the agricultural streams. Species richness and evenness were significantly lower in agricultural than in forested streams. A negative relationship between MSP and species richness and evenness indicated that density compensation and trait dominance were the prevalent mechanisms facilitating higher MSP in agricultural streams. Our findings suggest that the loss of riparian canopy and excess nutrient conditions are the major environmental drivers contributing to homogenization of ecological niches and dominance of highly productive non‐insect generalist species. This study highlights the importance of an ecosystem approach to understanding how complex aggregate stressors affect the regulation of consumer–resource interactions. There is an urgent need to preserve or restore natural riparian vegetation, fostering habitat and resource diversity and limiting nutrient contamination to stream ecosystems. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Vertical distribution of bacterial community diversity in the Greater Khingan Mountain permafrost region

Soil microorganisms are crucial contributors to the function of permafrost ecosystems, as well as the regulation of biogeochemical cycles. However, little is known about the distribution patterns and drivers of high‐latitude permafrost microbial communities subject to climate change and human activities. In this study, the vertical distribution patterns of soil bacterial communities in the Greater Khingan Mountain permafrost region were systematically analyzed via Illumina Miseq high‐throughput sequencing. Bacterial diversity in the active layer was significantly higher than in the permafrost layer. Principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) indicated that the bacterial community structure in the active layer and the permafrost layer was completely separated. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) detected statistically significant differentiation across the different depths. The relative abundance of the dominant phyla Chloroflexi (17.92%–52.79%) and Actinobacteria (6.34%–34.52%) was significantly higher in the permafrost layer than in the active layer, whereas that of Acidobacteria (4.98%–38.82%) exhibited the opposite trend, and the abundance of Proteobacteria (2.49%–22.51%) generally decreased with depth. More importantly, the abundance of bacteria linked to human infectious diseases was significantly higher in the permafrost layer according to Tax4Fun prediction analysis. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that ammonium nitrogen (NH4 +‐N), total organic carbon (TOC), and total phosphorus (TP) were major factors affecting the bacterial community composition. Collectively, our findings provide insights into the soil bacterial vertical distribution patterns and major environmental drivers in high‐latitude permafrost regions, which is key to grasping the response of cold region ecosystem processes to global climate changes.

Effects of environmental factors on the distribution of microbial communities across soils and lake sediments in the Hoh Xil Nature Reserve of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Comparison of microbial community diversity and composition of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in undisturbed regions could expand our understanding on the mechanisms of microbial community assembly and ecosystem responses to environmental change. This study investigated the spatial distribution of bacterial community diversity and composition in the lakeshore soils and lake sediments from one of the best preserved nature reserves, Hoh Xil on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and explored the corresponding environmental drivers. A total of 36 sediment and soil samples were collected from six alpine lakes and the corresponding shore zones, and their bacterial community structure was identified by high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Significant difference (p < 0.05) in diversity and composition of bacterial communities between the soils and sediments was observed. Heterogeneous selection played a dominant role in shaping the spatial variations of bacterial communities between the soils and sediments. Results of canonical correspondence analysis showed that the difference in composition of bacterial communities at OTU level between the soils and sediments was mainly determined by the mean annual temperature, salinity, and contents of total organic carbon and total nitrogen. Structural equation modeling revealed that salinity played a significantly direct role in soil bacterial composition, while mean annual temperature indirectly affected the bacterial composition mainly through changing soil salinity. In contrast, the sediment bacterial composition was directly influenced primarily by the contents of total organic carbon and total nitrogen, while pH also had an important indirect effect on sediment bacterial composition. These results shed light on the distribution patterns of bacterial communities between lakeshore soils and lake sediments in high-altitude permafrost regions, and the major ecological processes and environmental drivers that shaped their bacterial communities, and provide insight into the mechanisms underlying microbial community assembly in such regions.

Major environmental drivers determining life and death of cold-water corals through time.

Cold-water corals (CWCs) are the engineers of complex ecosystems forming unique biodiversity hotspots in the deep sea. They are expected to suffer dramatically from future environmental changes in the oceans such as ocean warming, food depletion, deoxygenation, and acidification. However, over the last decades of intense deep-sea research, no extinction event of a CWC ecosystem is documented, leaving quite some uncertainty on their sensitivity to these environmental parameters. Paleoceanographic reconstructions offer the opportunity to align the on- and offsets of CWC proliferation to environmental parameters. Here, we present the synthesis of 6 case studies from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, revealing that food supply controlled by export production and turbulent hydrodynamics at the seabed exerted the strongest impact on coral vitality during the past 20,000 years, whereas locally low oxygen concentrations in the bottom water can act as an additional relevant stressor. The fate of CWCs in a changing ocean will largely depend on how these oceanographic processes will be modulated. Future ocean deoxygenation may be compensated regionally where the food delivery and food quality are optimal.

Time after time: detecting annual patterns in stream bacterial biofilm communities.

SummaryTo quantify the major environmental drivers of stream bacterial population dynamics, we modelled temporal differences in stream bacterial communities to quantify community shifts, including those relating to cyclical seasonal variation and more sporadic bloom events. We applied Illumina MiSeq 16S rRNA bacterial gene sequencing of 892 stream biofilm samples, collected monthly for 36‐months from six streams. The streams were located a maximum of 118 km apart and drained three different catchment types (forest, urban and rural land uses). We identified repeatable seasonal patterns among bacterial taxa, allowing their separation into three ecological groupings, those following linear, bloom/trough and repeated, seasonal trends. Various physicochemical parameters (light, water and air temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, nutrients) were linked to temporal community changes. Our models indicate that bloom events and seasonal episodes modify biofilm bacterial populations, suggesting that distinct microbial taxa thrive during these events including non‐cyanobacterial community members. These models could aid in determining how temporal environmental changes affect community assembly and guide the selection of appropriate statistical models to capture future community responses to environmental change.

Variation in the predictability of lake plankton metric types

AbstractStatistical and climate models are frequently used for biodiversity projections under future climatic changes, but their predictive capacity for freshwater plankton may vary among different species and community metrics. Here, we used random forests to model plankton species and community metrics as a function of biological, climatic, physical, and chemical data from long‐term (2000–2017) monitoring data collected from Lake Müggelsee Berlin, Germany. We (1) compared the predictability of well‐known lake plankton metric types (biomass, abundance, taxonomic diversity, Shannon diversity, Simpson diversity, evenness, taxonomic distinctness, and taxonomic richness) and (2) assessed how the relative influence of different environmental drivers varies across lake plankton metric models. Overall, the metric predictability was highest for biomass and abundance followed by taxonomic richness. The biomass of dominant phytoplankton taxonomic groups such as cyanobacteria (adjusted‐R2 = 0.53) and the abundance of dominant zooplankton taxonomic groups such as rotifers (adjusted‐R2 = 0.59) and daphnids (adjusted‐R2 = 0.51) were more predictable than other metric types. The plankton metric predictability increased when grouping phytoplankton species according to their functional traits (adjusted‐R2 = 0.37 ± 0.14, mean ± SD, n = 36 functional groups) compared to higher taxonomic units (adjusted‐R2 = 0.25 ± 0.15, n = 22 taxonomic groups). Light, nutrients, water temperature, and seasonality for phytoplankton and food resources for zooplankton were the main drivers of both taxonomic and functional groups, giving confidence that our models captured the expected major environmental drivers. Our quantitative analyses highlight the multidimensionality of lake planktonic responses to environmental drivers and have implications for our capacity to select appropriate metrics for forecasting the future of lake ecosystems under global change scenarios.

Microbial plankton responses to multiple environmental drivers in marine ecosystems with different phosphorus limitation degrees

Multiple drivers are threatening the functioning of the microbial food webs and trophic interactions. Our understanding about how temperature, CO2, nutrient inputs, and solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) availability interact to alter ecosystem functioning is scarce because research has focused on single and double interactions. Moreover, the role that the degree of in situ nutrient limitation could play in the outcome of these interactions has been largely neglected, despite it is predominant in marine ecosystems. We address these uncertainties by combining remote-sensing analyses, and a collapsed experimental design with natural microbial communities from Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean exposed to temperature, nutrients, CO2, and UVR interactions. At the decade scale, we found that more intense and frequent (and longer lasting) Saharan dust inputs (and marine heatwaves) were only coupled with reduced phytoplankton biomass production. When microbial communities were concurrently exposed to future temperature, CO2, nutrient, and UVR conditions (i.e. the drivers studied over long-term scales), we found shifts from net autotrophy [primary production:respiration (PP:R) ratio > 1] towards a metabolic equilibrium (PP:R ratio ~ 1) or even a net heterotrophy (PP:R ratio < 1), as P-limitation degree was higher (i.e. Atlantic Ocean). These changes in the metabolic balance were coupled with a weakened phytoplankton-bacteria interaction (i.e. bacterial carbon demand exceeded phytoplankton carbon supply. Our work reveals that an accentuated in situ P limitation may promote reductions both in carbon uptake and fluxes between trophic levels in microbial plankton communities under global-change conditions. We show that considering long-term series can aid in identifying major local environmental drivers (i.e. temperature and nutrients in our case), easing the design of future global-change studies, but also that the abiotic environment to which microbial plankton communities are acclimated should be taken into account to avoid biased predictions concerning the effects of multiple interacting global-change drivers on marine ecosystems.

‘Tell me where the birds have gone’ – Reconstructing historical influence of major environmental drivers on bird populations from memories of ornithologists of an older generation

Historical perspective is important to understand the mechanisms of current environmental impacts on biodiversity. It may be achieved through long-term monitoring schemes aiming to record biodiversity changes over time. However, even the monitoring of bird populations, a taxon with the broadest spatial coverage and the longest time series among all organisms, does not usually cover more than 30–50 years. It is thus possible that the population status recorded by the monitoring schemes resulted from impacts preceding the monitoring data. In European birds for example, most studies use the beginning of 1980s as a baseline, even though major environmental changes likely acted earlier and its possible that many species have already depleted populations at that time. To fill this knowledge gap, we performed a unique survey among ornithologists of an older generation who performed bird observations in the Czech Republic from 1950s or 1960s up to now. They were asked to fill in a questionnaire to record relative abundance of each species in the region of their expertise during three time periods: 1950s/1960s, 1980s, and 2010s. Comparison of relative abundance between 1950s/1960s and 1980s should reflected population change prior to the time period typically set a as baseline, whereas population change between 1980s and 2010s aimed to assess the reliability of the ornithologists’ assessment by comparison with objective atlas mapping data. As expected, ornithologists of an older generation reported major population declines between 1950s/1960s and 1980s, especially among species depending on insects in their diet corresponding with steep intensification of land use for agriculture. Species associated with wetlands increased their populations, likely due to a higher nutrient input into water bodies. Interestingly, bird populations showed opposite pattern to the currently observed climate change impact, probably due to the modest climate change over these time periods. Importantly, population change between 1980s and 2010s estimated by the ornithologists corresponded well with the change based on atlas mapping data between the same time periods. Such a high level of congruence indicates suitability of memories of older generation naturalists for inferring indicators of historical biodiversity changes. We urge for performing of such assessments in other regions and for other taxa before this source of information will be lost forever.