Main Trading Partners Research Articles

The origins of Russia’s Mediterranean trade: the 250th anniversary of the Küçük Kaynarca treaty

The Black Sea trade was a crucial factor in the economic development of the Russian state following the incorporation of Crimea and the Northern Black Sea region into the empire. Nevertheless, even prior to reaching the Black Sea and the establishment of the first harbours, the Don merchants were engaged in commercial activities utilising Greek merchant vessels. The construction of merchant and military fleets in the ports of Nikolaev and Kherson was still a distant prospect. Following the conclusion of the first trade treaties between Russia and France, Turkey, Italy and the Septinsular Republic, the Black Sea trade opened up new prospects. The Mediterranean countries welcomed the new trading power with enthusiasm, anticipating the potential benefits of trade relations with it. This became evident when wheat from Novorossiya, which enjoyed good sales not only across the Mediterranean but also beyond, was shipped to Black Sea ports. Nevertheless, the Ottoman Empire continued to be Russia’s main trading partner. Its vast territory stretched across the Balkans, Asia Minor, and North Africa, including numerous islands of the Archipelago. The southern regions of the Ottoman Empire provided Russia with a range of commodities, including fruit, rice, wine, and olive oil. In return, Russian merchants exported Russian leather, furs, iron, and wheat southwards. Following Greece’s independence in 1830, trade with this state, which had long been a conduit for Russian goods and whose sailors were renowned for their expertise in the Mediterranean, began to flourish. The advancement of the Black Sea trade was contingent upon the construction of ships, which reached a new standard following the establishment of additional ports in the Crimea and the Azov region. The evolution of the Black Sea trade has been a subject of interest for scholars, both Russian and international, who have utilized published statistical data and materials from the archives of Southern Russia. The author draws on a hitherto untapped body of sources, namely information from Russian consuls in the Archipelago, Turkey, and Greece, as well as materials from the Commercial Office of the Russian mission in Constantinople, which kept meticulous records of all commercial ships passing through the Straits. The author draws upon hitherto unexplored records from the Archive of Foreign Policy of the Russian Empire in order to expand the framework of established perceptions concerning the inception of South Russian maritime trade and the initial endeavours of the merchants of Odessa and Taganrog.

Measurement and Validation of Market Power in China’s Log Import Trade—Empirical Analysis Based on PTM Model and AIDS Model

China is the world’s largest importer of logs, possessing the scale to exert significant influence in the international market. This paper uses a fixed-effect variable coefficient Pricing-to-Market panel model to measure China’s market power in log import trade. It also utilizes the Almost Ideal Demand System model from an elasticity perspective to explore the market behavior characteristics of various source countries in China’s log import trade, thereby validating the mechanism of market power. The results indicate that: ① China’s main trading partners can be categorized into four groups according to their market power in the log import trade. Specifically, China holds superlative market power in log imports from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar; holds strong market power in log imports from Russia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mozambique; holds weak market power in log imports from Papua New Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, France, Germany, Australia, and New Zealand; and holds no market power in Japan, Cameroon, and the United States. ② As China’s expenditure on log imports increases, there is a tendency to purchase high-quality precious wood and a greater concern for the legality of market transactions. Consequently, China is anticipated to augment its imports from source countries with no or weak market power. ③ The simple price elasticity of log imports from each source country is negative. Source countries with stronger market power tend to increase prices to achieve higher total revenue, while those with weaker market power are more inclined to lower prices to achieve the same. ④ Log products from various source countries are complementary in the Chinese market, indicating that China’s substantial demand for logs relies on the simultaneous supply from multiple countries and diverse wood types. Based on the existence or absence of market power in China’s log import trade, this paper provides targeted insights into enhancing international market power and reducing trade losses.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE PREDICTION OF INDONESIA'S LARGEST TRADING PARTNER BASED ON VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Foreign exchange rates from the currencies of trading partners are a critical element in the development of Indonesia's economic landscape. As an active country in international trade, Indonesia's economic health is highly dependent on trade partnerships, movements, and interactions of foreign exchange rates from Indonesia's main trading partners. To achieve economic stability, Bank Indonesia intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep the Rupiah exchange rate within a reasonable range. Indonesia is committed to achieving several points in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as point 17, which emphasizes partnerships, and point 8, which underlines inclusive and sustainable economic growth. This commitment is an important factor in Indonesia's economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the exchange rate value of Indonesia's largest trading partners considering these SDG aspects. In this study, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to predict the foreign exchange rate of Indonesia's largest trading partners. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the investing.com webpage, comprising weekly data from January 2021 to November 2023. The foreign exchange rates of Indonesia's largest trading partners have a cointegration relationship, indicating long-term relationships and similarities in movements. The best model identified is VECM (1), with a very accurate MAPE value of 3.29%. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis shows that the Chinese Yuan responds variably to different currencies, stabilizing over time. Variance Decomposition reveals that short-term fluctuations in the Chinese Yuan are primarily influenced by itself (87.89%) and significantly by the Singapore Dollar, South Korean Won, and Taiwan Dollar. The Granger Causality Test indicates that the Philippine Peso influences 11 other exchange rates, refining the VECM model and improving prediction accuracy. Indonesia is expected to build economic collaborations that can help achieve economic stability.

Trade Policy Review of Turkey

AbstractThis paper examines the WTO's 2023 Trade Policy Review (TPR) of Turkey, covering 2016–2022. As Turkey marked its centenary in 2023, the TPR allows for critical reflections on Turkey's global and European economic integration and its evolving economic policies. The review period witnessed key developments: heightened tensions with the European Union (EU), the country's transition into a presidential system, and the impacts of COVID‐19 and the Ukraine war. Turkey continued its state‐led development and proactive industrial policy post‐Global Financial Crisis, aiming to reduce the current account deficit, diversify exports, advance technological sophistication and enhance its position in global value chains (GVCs). Recently Turkey has further aligned its import–export regimes and trade negotiations with these strategic goals, increasing its Most Favoured Nation tariffs and adopting localisation strategies to support key sectors. Turkey navigated the pandemic effectively, bolstering its role in global supply chains, as indicated by its increased trade‐to‐GDP ratio. This underscores its economic resilience and strategic location. However, Turkey's trade policies are increasingly diverging from those of the EU, its main trade and supply chain partner and Customs Union ally. Turkey's new Regional Trade Agreements aim for deeper sectoral integration with partners other than the EU.

FEATURES OF FOREIGN TRADE BETWEEN UKRAINE AND THE USA IN 2015-2023

Objective. The objective of the present study is to analyze the state and identify the features of the development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States in 2015-2023. Methods. The following methods and techniques of cognition were used: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction (to substantiate the importance and role of the United States in the development of Ukraine's foreign trade relations), analysis of series of dynamics (to identify trends and patterns of development, peculiarities of the dynamics of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States), graphical (to visualise the peculiarities of the development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the United States). Results. Based on the study of the status and peculiarities of development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the USA in 2015-2023, the author establishes that despite the fact that the history of development of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the USA dates back to 1992, during 1992-2023, more than 100 different agreements were concluded between Ukraine and the USA, during the period under analysis, the USA was not the main foreign trade partner of Ukraine - the share of trade with the USA accounted for an average of 7.5% of Ukraine's foreign trade turnover. It is proved that during 2015-2023, foreign trade relations between the countries steadily developed and deepened, which was reflected in the growth of the share of foreign trade between the countries in the total foreign trade of Ukraine by 6.4%. It is established that during 2015-2021, the lion's share of foreign trade turnover between the countries was formed by foreign trade in goods, but starting from 2022 - by foreign trade in services (in 2022, foreign trade in services accounted for 82.1% of foreign trade between Ukraine and the United States, in 2023 - 76.9%). It was determined that in 2015-2023: the rate of growth of the volume of foreign trade in services of Ukraine and the USA was almost 6.5 times higher than the rate of growth of the volume of foreign trade in goods, as of 2023, foreign trade in services significantly exceeded foreign trade in goods in terms of volume; the balance of foreign trade in goods was negative and constantly growing; the coefficient of coverage of imports by exports was characterized by a constant tendency to decrease; the main articles of Ukrainian commodity exports to the USA were products made of cast iron or steel, iron and steel, preparations made from vegetables, fruits, nuts or other parts of plants; imports - means of transport, except railway or tram rolling stock; mineral fuel, petroleum products and products of their distillation; machines and mechanical devices, boilers, nuclear reactors, their parts; the balance of foreign trade in services was both positive (in 2015-2021) and negative (in 2022-2023); the coefficient of coverage of imports by exports significantly decreased by almost 0.93 points; the main articles of Ukrainian export of services to the USA were: air transport services; construction; services related to financial activities; financial services paid directly; auxiliary services in the field of financial activity; services related to patent activity; services in the field of telecommunications, computer and information services; computer services; information services; scientific and technical services; imports of Ukrainian services from the USA were: state and governmental services; auxiliary services in the field of financial activity; services related to financial activities; trade-related services and brokerage services other royalties.

EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY OF UKRAINE’S MAIN TRADING PARTNERS

Ukraine, as an open economy under conditions of Russian aggression, is highly vulnerable to the import of exogenous shocks. This is embodied in exchange rate volatility and the emergence of corresponding risks. Most studies are aimed at direct, explicit, or transactional risks. They reflect the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on economic entities' cash flows in foreign economic activities. However, changes in currency prices can also affect the subjects oriented to the local market and not carry out operations in foreign currencies by changing competitiveness. One speaks about the indirect, implicit, or economic currency risk in this case. The latter generally arises in the event of volatility in the exchange rates of currencies of importing countries or competitors. The study is devoted to the analysis of indirect currency risks, which reflect potential adaptations of competitiveness due to changes in exchange rates. For this purpose, the currencies of the countries that account for about 80% of Ukraine's trade turnover over the last 10 years, namely the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, yuan, Indian rupee, Czech krona, Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, and Turkish lira were chosen. The article aims to assess the volatility of exchange rates of Ukraine's main trading partners as a stage of analyzing economic currency risks. The paper uses statistical methods for volatility estimation and distribution characteristics, namely standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. The obtained results show that some currencies have a high level of asymmetry and excess, indicating possible unpredictable rate changes. The calculated indicators' generalization allows identifying currencies with relatively high and low risk. The article complements the results of previous studies, as it covers both major reserve currencies and currencies of leading countries whose markets are developing globally and in Europe. Estimates of asymmetry and excess exchange rate distributions are essential for effective currency risk management.

On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?

We assess the impact of China's bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1–2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates, supporting the “trade follows the flag” view. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political tensions.

Vietnam's Foreign Trade in the second half of the XIX century and Russian Foreign Trade Interests

The article is devoted to the problems of the development of Vietnam's foreign trade relations during the second half of the XIX century. The analysis of the main foreign trade partners of Vietnam, the range of export and import, supply channels, volumes of foreign trade turnover, prices is presented. Special attention is paid to the policy of the European powers on the development of Vietnam's foreign trade relations. The main approaches of the Vietnamese authorities and traders to the organization of foreign trade relations with neighboring and European countries are noted. The characteristics of the main centers of trade in Vietnam, the peculiarities of the organization of trade in export and import goods, as well as the transportation of goods by land, sea and river routes are given. The views and approaches of the Russian authorities and entrepreneurs to the development of foreign trade relations of the Russian Empire with Vietnam are revealed. In particular, information is provided on the entry of Russian ships into the ports of Vietnam, as well as on the supply channels of Vietnamese goods to the Russian market. The article is based mainly on pre-revolutionary sources in Russian, French, English, Spanish and Vietnamese.

The Role of Foreign Economic Relations in the Economies of Developing Countries Using the Example of Afghanistan

This article examines the role of foreign economic relations in the economies of developing countries using the example of Afghanistan. The author presents a detailed analysis of Afghanistan’s foreign trade statistics from 2010 to 2022, highlighting trends and signifi cant changes in the country’s exports and imports. The article pays attention to the main positions of Afghanistan’s exports and imports, indicating their importance and contribution to the economic development of the country. In particular, areas such as petroleum products, services, cereals and products of the fl our and cereal industry, as well as food products and ferrous metals and products made from them are considered. Particular attention is paid to Afghanistan’s main trading partners, establishing their role and contribution to the country’s foreign economic activity. The article highlights that India, Pakistan and China are key export destinations where India holds a leading position. These data indicate the diversity of markets for Afghan products and create opportunities for developing trade relations with various regions. The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of foreign economic relations for the economic development of Afghanistan and its potential in international markets. Foreign trade is a significant factor in attracting investment, developing economic sectors and improving the standard of living of the population of Afghanistan. The presented analysis of statistical data allows us to draw a conclusion about the need to strengthen and expand foreign economic relations for the further development of the country.

Nowcasting the Russian economy macroeconomic indicators under uncertainty: Does taking into account the news sentiment help?

In this paper the following models are compared: restricted and unrestricted MIDAS-models (mixed data sampling models), MFBVAR-model (mixed frequency Bayesian vector autoregression), Linear model with regularization (MIDAS_L1-, MIDAS_L2and MIDAS_PC-model) and dynamic factor model. The results are compared with classical autoregression as a benchmark. Production indices for different industries and indicators characterizing Russian GDP and its components, energy prices and PMI of Russia and its main trading partners, as well as indicators derived from the analysis of sentiment of news articles published by a number of major media and blogs are used as explanatory variables. The paper also proposes a method of rapid assessment of the current state of the economy based on data for the first or first two months of the quarter in question only. The use of this approach in combination with news sentiment analysis allows to draw conclusions about current economic situation extremely rapidly. Models’ accuracy is assessed by cross-validation for periods before and after the Q2 2022, the significance of the effect of adding news variables is assessed using the Diebold—Mariano test. When testing during the crisis period (starting from the Q1 2022), the addition of news variables leads to an increase in accuracy for 45% of the models considered, and the average improvement (reduction in the average absolute error) was 1.39 points (the reduction in MAE for the science-based GDP growth rates of Russia is 0.64 p.p.). At the same time, in a calmer (pre-sanction) period, the advantage of news is less noticeable: an increase in accuracy was recorded in 30% of cases with an average decrease in error of 1.54 points (the decrease in MAE for Russia’s GDP growth rate is 0.26 p.p.), and the change accuracy of science data when adding variables reflecting the news background turns out to be statistically insignificant. Thus, the use of news sentiment is not a “silver bullet” in the task of nowcasting Russian GDP, but in times of crisis it can serve as a good and, importantly, very operative indicator of the state of the economy and can be used in conjunction with more traditional explanatory variables.

Competitiveness, quality education and universities: the shift to the post-pandemic world

PurposeThis article aims to investigate whether there is a relationship between education for the labor market in the post-pandemic stage and the educational quality of universities, taking as a sample a group of Latin American countries and their main trading partners. Reference is made to the Global Competitiveness Report 2020 of the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) index, which evaluates the quality of universities.Design/methodology/approachCorrelations, clusters and T-tests were generated to test for significant differences, resulting in two blocks of countries being identified with statistically significant differences in educational efforts to prepare their citizens for the labor market and the quality of their universities.FindingsIt is concluded that there are examples of Latin American countries that, although they are emerging economies, are updating their educational systems at an accelerated pace to meet the needs demanded by the labor market, such as Chile and Argentina. In addition, there are some particular cases of Latin American QS universities that although they are not at a high level in their overall educational quality as a university, compared to North American and Asian universities, their graduates do show a high employability index. This means that in the graduate profile, these universities are also accelerating efforts to position them at a high level of preparedness to respond to the jobs and markets of tomorrow, just as the universities in developed economies do.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough the sample size is a limitation of this work, since it is based on secondary information reported by the WEF (2020) and the QS World University Rankings (2021), it contributes value by analyzing specific cases. Despite its limitations, the study yields meaningful results that put the challenges of post-pandemic employment and the role that universities play in a comprehensible framework.Originality/valueThese results put special attention on the work of universities as a crucial entity to prepare citizens to develop the competencies needed for the post-pandemic labor market, especially in terms of critical thinking and digital skills. Human capital formation will drive the post-pandemic recovery process of leading countries and universities.

CURRENT TRENDS OF ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY OF UKRAINE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The role of economic diplomacy in establishing and developing relations between countries has been substantiated, explained by the priority of economic interests. The aim of the article is to analyze the current trends of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the Middle East. The historical prerequisites for the formation of Ukraine's economic diplomacy and the main vectors of its foreign economic policy have been revealed. The dynamics of the regional structure of goods export from Ukraine have been analyzed, confirming that the countries of the CIS were in the focus of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the initial stages of independence. Changes in Ukraine's foreign economic policy after 2014 have been established, and the importance of cooperation with Middle Eastern countries has been argued. Emphasis is placed on cooperation with Turkey, the main trade partner for Ukraine among the Middle Eastern countries. An assessment of the dynamics of the foreign trade activity of both countries has been conducted, and the main vectors of cooperation, which include economic and investment spheres, cultural and educational cooperation, have been substantiated. The peculiarities of Ukraine's cooperation with Turkey since the beginning of the war have been highlighted. Using the SWOT analysis methodology, the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in Ukraine's cooperation with the Middle East countries have been identified. The main consequences of expanding Ukraine's partnership with Middle Eastern countries, which will contribute to the diversification of trade between countries, the development of joint infrastructure projects, etc., have been singled out. Strategic directions for expanding Ukraine's presence in the Middle East countries have been proposed. Among the channels of disseminating information about Ukraine, attention is focused on the work of Ukraine's diplomatic missions abroad. It is proposed to revise the format of presenting information about Ukraine in the Middle East countries, involving representatives of foreign media. The effectiveness of using social media platforms and business channels for Ukraine's strategic penetration into the markets of this region has been confirmed. Other channels for forming Ukraine's image diplomacy in the Middle East have been identified. Prospective vectors of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the region have been outlined.

ANALISIS DAMPAK SHOCK PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI MITRA DAGANG UTAMA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN KETERBUKAAN PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA

This study aims to analyze the response of Indonesia's economic growth and Indonesia's trade openness with each trading partner to economic growth shocks in Indonesia's main trading partners. This study uses a quantitative approach with the VAR / VECM method by analyzing the impulse response between variables, using time-series data. The sample used in this study amounted to 378 annual data from 1981-2022 sourced from the World Bank and IMF. The results obtained from the response test show that there is a positive response from Indonesia's economic growth to shocks to US economic growth, and a negative response from Indonesia's trade openness with the United States. There is a positive response from Indonesia's economic growth to China's economic growth shocks, and a negative response from Indonesia's trade openness with China. There is a positive response of Indonesia's economic growth and trade openness with Japan to Japan's economic growth shocks. There is a negative response from Indonesia's economic growth and trade openness with Malaysia to shocks in Indonesia's economic growth with Malaysia.

Векторы экономического сотрудничества Узбекистана и Китая

Located in the center of Central Asia, Uzbekistan has become an important link in Beijing’s transport and logistics projects developed within the framework of the Chinese “One Belt, One Road” initiative. After Sh.Mirziyoyev came to power in the republic in 2016, there was an intensification of cooperation between the two countries, which contributed to the transformation of China into the main trading partner and investor of Uzbekistan. Based on the results of meetings between the leaders of the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2023-2024. agreements were concluded that significantly strengthened the Chinese presence in the Uzbek economy and humanitarian sphere. Currently, one of the priorities of economic cooperation between the two countries is the electric power industry, with a special role being given to China’s assistance in the development of “green energy” in Uzbekistan. The growing dependence on China, and not only economic, limits the multi-vector foreign policy that Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries have proclaimed.

НЕЭКВИВАЛЕНТНЫЙ ОБМЕН КАК ФАКТОР ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЯ НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ РОССИИ

The article is devoted to the problem of unequal exchange in the global economy. A comparative analysis of different theoretical approaches has been carried out, both those denying the existence of this phenomenon (the development of the tradition of the neoclassical school) and the theories of international trade and division of labor based on it (the development of the tradition of Marxist political economy). The article presents different methods for assessing the equivalence of exchange in international trade. The author provides calculations of the labor exchange coefficient for the Russian economy with its main trading partners. Based on them, a conclusion was made about Russia’s semi-peripheral position in the international division of labor

Зовнішньоекономічна торговельна діяльність України: аналіз, тенденції та перспективи розвитку

Foreign trade relations play a key role in the national economy, as they are the basis for the international exchange of goods and services between different countries. Therefore, the study of the state and prospects for the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade activity is relevant task for further effective economic growth. This study is devoted to the study of the impact of foreign trade relations on the economic development of Ukraine. The main functions, principles and rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which ensures the competitiveness of products in the world market, are disclosed. The main foreign trade partners of the country are studied, the structure of exports and imports of goods and the state of the foreign trade balance of Ukraine for the last three years are considered. The research model is based on an integrated approach, using methods such as analytical, statistical, analysis and synthesis. The research work analyzes the theoretical aspect of foreign trade relations, the state of Ukraine’s foreign trade and develops recommendations for their improvement. The practical significance lies in the analysis of the current state of Ukraine’s foreign trade relations, identifying the main problems and identifying possible ways to solve them. This makes it possible to define precise directions for the further development of foreign economic activity, to develop effective strategies for attracting foreign investment, expanding export opportunities, as well as strengthening trade partnerships with other countries. The social effects of this article are to strengthen economic development and increase Ukraine’s competitiveness in the international arena.

«We Are Selfish; We Will Fight Only for Ourselves...» V.P. Potemkin’s Mission to Ankara (04.29–05.06.1939) and Turkish Policy of Forming a Security Belt Near National Borders in the Mid-1930s

In the context of growing military tension in Europe in the second half of the 1930s and the eventual Italian threat, the Turkish leadership was looking for ways to ensure national interests and push the threat of war away from Turkish borders. The system of international military-political alliances and bilateral pacts was considered by Turkish diplomats as a sufficient guarantee of sovereignty and preventing the advance of war to Turkish territory. One of the trends was a change in Turkey’s foreign policy orientation from relying only on the Soviet Union to connections with England. The fact that Germany remained the main trade and economic partner of the Turkish Republic also had a significant impact. In the context of growing political tension in Europe and the division of Czechoslovakia, the Soviet government proposed holding mutual consultations on security issues and possible opposition to the aggressor. On April 29, 1939, Deputy People’s Commissar for Foreign Affairs V.P. Potemkin was sent to Ankara. The main topic of discussion in Ankara was the conclusion of a multilateral pact of mutual assistance and security against the backdrop of growing German-Italian expansion. Despite the assistance provided by V.P. Potemkin, the negotiations in Ankara left the Soviet leadership with a taste of understatement and a feeling of veiled bargaining, giving a clear understanding that in the coming world war, Turkey, despite the system of international defensive pacts built by its leadership along the perimeter of the country, would be guided by the principles of national selfishness.

THE PECULIARITIES ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN THE POSTPANDEMIC PERIOD IN THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

Due to the gradual elimination of restrictions on the economy and the anti-crisis measures of the RA government, since 2021, the macroeconomic indicators have been gradually restored in Armenia. The Russian-Ukrainian military conflict that started on February 24, 2022 interrupted the recovery of the world economy and also in Armenia. The economy of Armenia, which grew at a fairly high rate in 2021 after a sharp decline in 2020, was also affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war. Russia is Armenia’s main trade partner, and any problem that arises directly affects the latter’s economy. Disruption of value chains and rising commodity prices created high inflationary pressures on the economy. Considering the potential of the Russian market for the Armenian economy, the sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate have negatively affected exporting and importing companies. The negative impact of the mentioned events on the RA economic activity was manifested in the short term with certain fluctuations. Considering the above, in fact, the spring forecast of the World Bank for Armenia was quite pessimistic, but in reality the picture was relatively more optimistic. In 2022, the macroeconomic environment of Armenia was mainly characterized by positive development trends, taking this into account, the International Monetary Fund revised its forecast for Armenia’s economic growth in June 2022, sharply increasing it from 1.2% to 3.5%.

Аnalysis and audit of the effectiveness of sustainable development of economic entities

Main problem: In today's global business environment, meat processing businesses are faced with the inevitable need to ensure sustainable development, especially in the context of exports. One of the key issues that requires attention is the effectiveness of accounting and risk management during exports, which affects the stability of business and the economy as a whole. The purpose of this article is to study the sustainability indicators of an enterprise exporting its products. The main objective of the article is to conduct a detailed analysis of the sustainability indicators of an exporting enterprise, identify factors influencing the success of their activities, and develop recommendations for ensuring sustainable development in the international environment. Methods: When writing this article, a study was conducted that included an analysis of the current situation in the field of export of goods, in particular, a study of export volumes, main trading partners and the structure of exported goods. Approaches to analyzing the structure of exports of meat products include determining the share of each type of product in total exports, as well as identifying the main trading partners based on sales volumes abroad. Results and their significance: The article identifies key factors influencing the sustainable development of enterprises in the context of export activities. The results of the analysis allow us to develop recommendations and strategies for improving accounting and risk management during exports, which can help strengthen business sustainability. The results obtained serve as the basis for creating effective strategies and recommendations to improve business sustainability in the export environment. This can be an important contribution to the development of a sustainable economy and increased competitiveness of enterprises. Risk assessment and management are important for sustainability when exporting goods. It is recommended to use financial instruments, create reserves, and organize training to improve risk management and financial stability when exporting.

Indonesia’s macroeconomic conditions during United States-China trade war

The trade war between the United States and China can affect the Indonesian economy. It is because the United States and China are Indonesia's main trading partners in International trading. Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators affected by the trade war are exports, imports, interest rates, and inflation. This research examines the trade war's partial and simultaneous effect on Indonesia's macroeconomic conditions, such as exports, imports, interest rates, and inflation. The data used in this study is secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI) in 2017 – 2020. The data analysis technique used is MANOVA (Multivariate Analysis of Variance). The empirical results showed that trade war simultaneously affects exports, imports, interest rates, and inflation. Meanwhile, the trade war partially affects exports, imports, and interest rates but not inflation. Our research concluded that trade conflicts between Indonesia's two main trading partners, namely the United States and China, affect Indonesia's macroeconomic conditions, especially on exports, imports, interest rates, and inflation. Indonesia must take strategic steps to anticipate the impact of the trade war, especially on export, import, and interest rate policies.