Main Global Risks Research Articles

«ЗЕЛЕНАЯ» МОДЕЛЬ ТУРИЗМА: ВНЕДРЕНИЕ ESG‑ПРИНЦИПОВ

In 2022 The Global Risks Report of the World Economic Forum (WEF) indicated the main global risks, for example, environmental and socio-economic problems. Experts have recognized that the “green” model of the economy, which is now beginning to be actively applied in the energy sector, has the potential to counteract these risks. The authors of the article propose a transition to a “green” economic model not only in the energy sector, but also in the service sector, for example, in the tourism. The concept of “green” model of tourism is considered as a conscious model of long-term industry’s development, based on ESG principles (responsible attitude to the environment, high social responsibility, high quality of corporate governance). Model is aimed at creating a competitive tourist product, maintaining sustainable development and adaptability of the tourism sector.

ОЦІНЮВАННЯ РИЗИКІВ ІНВЕСТИЦІЙНОГО ПРОЄКТУ ТОРГОВЕЛЬНИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ

Investment projects are characterized by a substantial degree of uncertainty, weak predictability of environmental parameters and risks. Therefore, the risk management system is an important component of effective business planning, related to safety and financial integrity of an enterprise, and risk assessment is an important part of the project management. According to the steps of risk assessment trade enterprises require the identification of external and internal risks that may affect the effectiveness of their investment project. In this article is proposed to take into account the presence of specific risks for different phases of the project life cycle, the risks of trade enterprises, as well as the existence of risks arising from industry specifics. It is proposed to identify the risk by subgroups: risks accompanying the investment project; risks of a trading company; industry risks; macro-level risks; global risks. It is determined that external risks are characterized by such management methods as identification, forecasting, monitoring and accounting of risks; internal risks – prevention, transfer and reduction of risks. According to the selected subgroups, the risks that are characteristic of investment projects of commercial enterprises are identified. Depending on the subgroup, it is proposed to use the appropriate information and methodological support. The main global risks in the world in 2019 are analyzed. It is established that the main global risks in the world are environmental and threats caused by the development of information technology. It is determined the biggest risks Ukraine – the lack of qualified personnel, regulatory risk, operational risk, the risk associated with new/subversive technologies. It is concluded that there are differences in determining the greatest risks in the activities of economic entities in Ukraine and the world. Sectoral risks and their impact on the investment activities of commercial enterprises (economic, regulatory, institutional, political, and environmental) are identified. The internal risks influencing realization of the investment project of the trading enterprise (information, administrative, financial, marketing, logistic, technological, ecological, personnel) are revealed.

Assessment of Water Storage Changes Using GRACE and GLDAS

Water crisis is one of the main global risks that has different impacts on the society. This work uses available data and tools to track water storage changes in Iran, where lack of observations limits hydroclimatological studies and thus causes disasters. Data from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) are combined to analyze water storage changes (LWE) in Iran. GRACE signals indicate a large reduction of the water storage in North of Iran along the coast of the Caspian Sea (the largest global inland water body), where the water level has been oscillating significantly. In addition, results show the largest reduction of the water storage that occurred in the karstic and alluvial aquifers in Zagros, where groundwater is overused and many dams are constructed across the rivers. In addition to anthropogenic forcing, climate change has short- and long-term impact on the water storage. The highest correlation between LWE and climatological variables including temperature and precipitation is at 3- and 2-month lags, respectively. Natural and anthropogenic forcing caused the maximum rate of LWE reduction (maximum average reduction) in Kermanshah province, where a sequence of earthquakes occurred (in 2017, 2018, and 2019). Results highlight the main role of water storage monitoring in management plans and decision-making processes to conserve natural resources and reduce hazards.

Протестный потенциал Латинской Америки: региональный срез глобального феномена

The world is showing signs of geopolitical and geo-economical imbalance, which threatens the international community with new crisis shocks. This is indicated by a slowdown in the growth of the world economy and trade, neo-protectionism and increasing sanction measures, financial “hand-wringing” of “undesirable” regimes, the incessant military actions in Syria, the “frozen”, but with that not less the destructive conflict in Ukraine, and many other dangerous phenomena of international life. More recently, they have been joined by another “black swan” – the unexpected event that could critically complicate the economic and political environment, both in individual countries and globally. This is certainly the spread of coronavirus (COVID‑19), the various negative effects of which have yet to be fully assessed. But one thing is already clear: coronavirus will have a negative impact on the world economy, “push” its reversal to the next global crisis and, as a result, the deterioration of the social situation. Similarly, the powerful wave of mass sociopolitical protests that swept the world (including a number of Latin American states) requires its comprehensive analysis and reflection. In this case, it is necessary to consider this phenomenon in two dimensions: a) the main causes and country features of protests; b) the conditioning of protests by the megatrends of global development, their connection with the fundamental processes that are changing the world order, formed in the age of neoliberal globalization. This dual task is even more relevant, because, according to experts of the consulting company Eurasia Group, in 2020, new protests, particularly in Latin America, can become one of the main global risks. The facts show that the main reason for the protests in the region has been a growing public discontent with the deepening income gap between the ruling class and the vast majority of the population, rampant corruption, the inability of authorities to resolve accumulated socio-economic problems for the greater public good and overcome the stagnation in which Latin American states live.

Problems and Risks of the Modern World and the Ways of Their Solution

The article deals with global problems and threats that greatly impact society in our time. The political and economic situation in the modern world is characterized by extreme tension and instability. Crisis phenomena cover all spheres of human life. In this situation, a reliable assessment of global risks is extremely important. Experts of the World Economic Forum conduct systematic work on the analysis and synthesis of the most dangerous risks for the world community. The theme of the current forum, “Creating a common future in a split world”, points to the main world problem – disunity in today’s global society. The main global risks of 2018 and the following period, according to experts, are the problems of climate and the environment; threats of a new technological wave and an increasing stratification of the level of incomes of the population. The destabilizing factor in the world was also the crisis of globalization. Prime Minister of India N.Modi called the crisis of globalization one of the main problems of mankind, along with climate change and terrorism. He stressed that protectionism becomes a global threat hampering world development.The paper examines the impact of risk groups and certain global threats on society, analyzes views on the problem of various expert centers, and formulates conclusions.

PREVALENCE OF DIAGNOSED AND UNDIAGNOSED DIABETES IN A RURAL COMMUNITY: A HOME-BASED SCREENING

Objectives: Diabetes is one of the main global risks of mortality and is seen with a drastic rise in developing nations in accordance with rise in age. The main aim of the study is to find the prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes and its associated risk factors among the rural community based on diagnostic criteria.Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a rural community of Salem district, Tamil Nadu, India. Patient data (demographics, lifestyle factors, and medical reports) were collected with the help of a questionnaire.Results: Of 780 populations, 425 were included for the screening of diabetes based on inclusion criteria. Of the 425 screened samples, 224 (52.7%) were diagnosed with diabetes. From these 224 diabetic cases, 133 (31.3%) were known cases of diabetes, 26 (6.1%) were newly diagnosed diabetic cases, and 65 (15.3%) were pre-diabetic cases. Most of the diabetic patients 140 (62.5%) were illiterate, and 159 (71%) were never had physical activities. A positive association (p<0.05) was observed between diabetes and age, body mass index (BMI) and tobacco use other than smoking. 65 patients were found to be pre-diabetes, among which 41.5% (27 cases) were male and 58.5% (38 cases) were female. A positive association (p<0.05) was observed between pre-diabetes and age, family history of diabetes and HTN, BMI, and lifestyle factors such as tobacco use, alcohol consumption, and smoking.Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that the burden of diabetes was observed to be increasing in India and it is becoming common among communities. Patient awareness and timely diagnosis and intervention may limit the progression of the disease.

World risk society. Environmental risks: a driving force for cosmopolitanism

Risk society today means world risk society. Its essential features are man-made risks, which have no social, space or time limits. World risk society identifies three main global risks: transnational terrorism, financial hazards and environmental risks. Environmental issues in this framework cannot be seen as problems in the environment of society, but they have to be considered as inner world problems of society itself. The interpretational framework of world risk society can be subdivided into three levels: first, global threats cause global commonalities; the contours of a world public are emerging. Secondly, the perception of global self-hazards releases a politically tailored impulse for the revitalisation of national policy as well as for the training and design of cooperative international institutions. Thirdly, the delimitation of the political has to be researched: the perceived needs of world risk society give way to a world civil society. Henceforth, in world risk society environmental hazards can be interpreted as a driving force for cosmopolitanism, global environmental risks and their practical and discursive treatment create transnational communities.