Magnitude Of Trade Research Articles

Changes in global trade patterns increase global inequality towards Sustainable Development Goals

Reaching the UN's sustainable development goals (SDGs) is influenced by a country's position in global value chains and its involvement in international trade. Here, we assess how changes in global trade patterns (CGTP) during 2004 and 2014 impacted 13 SDG indicators in 141 countries/regions which are further divided into four income groups. Trade pattern is characterized by the direction, composition, and magnitude of trade, indicating an economy imports what types (composition) and magnitudes of goods or services from where (direction). We find that CGTP aggravated socioeconomic and environmental inequality between countries in two ways: 1) the amount of indicators that significantly worsened due to CGTP decreased from 8 indicators (2004–2007) to 1 (2011–2014) for high-income and upper-middle-income countries, but increased from 5 to 14 for lower-middle-income and low-income countries; 2) CGTP led to a coupling of value added with most natural resource consumption and environmental pollution indicators for low-income countries, while they strengthened decoupling or reducing coupling for other countries. The findings imply one key to achieving SDGs is to address the inequality between rich and poor countries through implementing policy interventions that influence import and vertical supply chain thereby shifting the trade patterns towards environmental-economic decoupling in poor countries.

Are emerging economies’ credit cycles synchronized? Fresh evidence from time–frequency analysis

PurposeTo the best of our knowledge, no study has examined credit cycle synchronizations in the context of emerging economies. Studying the credit cycles synchronization across BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries is crucial given the magnitude of trade and financial integration among member counties. The enormity of the trade and financial linkages among BRICS countries and growth spillovers from emerging economies to advanced and low-income countries provide the rationale and motivation to study the synchronization of credit cycles across BRICS.Design/methodology/approachThe study investigates the credit cycles coherence across BRICS economies from 1996Q2 to 2020Q4. The synchronization analysis is done using the noval wavelet approach. The analysis examines not only the coherence but also the extent of credit cycle synchronization that varies across frequencies and over time among different pairs of nations.FindingsThe authors find heterogeneity in the credit cycles' synchronization among the member nations. China and India are very much in sync with the other BRICS countries. China's high-frequency credit cycle mostly leads the other countries' credit cycles before the global financial crisis and shows a mix of lead/lag relationships post-financial crisis. Interestingly, most of the time, India's low-frequency credit cycles lead the member countries' credit cycles, and Brazil's low frequency credit cycle lag behind the other BRICS countries' credit cycles, except for Russia. The results are crucial from the macroprudential policymaker's perspective.Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical design is applicable to a similar set of countries and may not directly fit each emerging economy.Practical implicationsThe findings will help understand the marked deepening of trade, technology, investment and financial interdependence across the world. BRICS acronym requires no introduction, but such analysis may help understand the interaction at the monetary policy level.Originality/valueThis is the first study that highlights the need to understand the credit variable interactions for BRICS nations.

Tavern revenues and alcohol consumption in the Muscovite state, 1620s-1640s

The level of alcohol consumption and the role of alcohol taxes as a source of state revenue in pre-Petrine Russia have been the subject of much scholarly interest and political speculation, yet reliable data on the magnitude of trade in “grain wine” is still lacking. This article draws on the records of central government agencies from the 1620s to the early 1650s to partially fill this gap. In the decades immediately following the Times of Trouble, tavern revenues nearly doubled in absolute numbers and accounted for about a quarter of the total state revenue of Muscovy. The growth rate of tavern revenues was on par with the rate of population growth (the urban population increased by 60 percent between the 1620s and 1640s). The article discusses different methods of running the state alcohol monopoly and estimates the profitability of alcohol trade and the overall levels of alcohol consumption during the period under study.

Monetary Value of Live Trade in a Commonly Traded Primate, the Long-Tailed Macaque, Based on Global Trade Statistics

Non-human primates (primates) are regarded as key research subjects for pre-clinical trials of several drugs aimed to alleviate human suffering. It has long been suggested that the predominant species in the international trade in live primates for use in research is the long-tailed macaque (Macaca fascicularis). However, little is still known about the value of this international trade. Whilst the international trade to supply the requirement for biomedical testing is known to encourage illegal wildlife trade, we lack a detailed understanding of the overall value and magnitude of this trade. Such information is vital to facilitate the design of effective conservation strategies in range countries, in order to mitigate the exploitation of wild populations by organized crime networks. Here, data from CITES and the UN Comtrade databases were combined to calculate the value of this trade. We also compared the number of individual primates traded as reported in the two databases to investigate possible correlations. Results show that, from 2010 to 2019, the international trade in long-tailed macaques constituted a market worth of ~US $1.25 billion. We found a positive correlation between individual primates traded in the UN Comtrade Database and individual long-tailed macaques reported in the CITES Trade Database, suggesting that we can use the UN Comtrade database to investigate values and magnitude of the international legal trade in wildlife, and that legal trade in live primates is primarily constituted of long-tailed macaques alone.

Tavern Revenues And Alcohol Consumption In The Muscovite State In Mid-Seventeenth Century

The level of alcohol consumption and the role of alcohol taxes as a source of state revenue in pre-Petrine Russia have been the subject of much scholarly interest and political speculation, yet reliable data on the magnitude of trade in “grain wine” is still lacking. This article draws on the records of central government agencies from the 1620s - early 1650s to partially fill this gap. In the decades immediately following the Times of Trouble tavern revenues nearly doubled in absolute numbers and accounted for about a quarter of the total state revenues of Muscovy. The growth rate of tavern revenues was on par with the rate of population growth (between the 1620s and 1640s, urban population increased by 60 percent). The article discusses different methods of running the state alcohol monopoly and estimates the profitability of alcohol trade and the overall levels of alcohol consumption during the period under study.

Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios

We study a newly designed survey administered to a large panel of wealthy retail investors. The survey elicits beliefs that are important for macroeconomics and finance, and matches respondents with administrative data on their portfolio composition, their trading activity, and their login behavior. We establish five facts inthese data. (i) Beliefs are reflected in portfolio allocations. The sensitivity of portfolios to beliefs is small on average, but varies significantly with investor wealth, attention, trading frequency, and confidence. (ii) Belief changes do not predict when investors trade, but conditional on trading, they affect both the direction and the magnitude of trades. (iii) Beliefs are mostly characterized by large and persistent individual heterogeneity. Demographic characteristics explain only asmall part of why some individuals are optimistic and some are pessimistic. (iv) Expected cash flow growth and expected returns are positively related, both within and across investors. (v) Expected returns and the subjective probability of rare disasters are negatively related, both within and across investors. These five facts provide useful guidance for the design of macro-finance models. (JEL D83, E23, G11, G12, G41, G51)

Five Facts About Beliefs and Portfolios

We administer a newly-designed survey to a large panel of retail investors who have substantial wealth invested in financial markets. The survey elicits beliefs that are crucial for macroeconomics and finance, and matches respondents with administrative data on their portfolio composition and their trading activity. We establish five facts in this data: (1) Beliefs are reflected in portfolio allocations. The sensitivity of portfolios to beliefs is small on average, but varies significantly with investor wealth, attention, trading frequency, and confidence. (2) It is hard to predict when investors trade, but conditional on trading, belief changes affect both the direction and the magnitude of trades. (3) Beliefs are mostly characterized by large and persistent individual heterogeneity; demographic characteristics explain only a small part of why some individuals are optimistic and some are pessimistic. (4) Investors who expect higher cash flow growth also expect higher returns and lower long-term price-dividend ratios. (5) Expected returns and the subjective probability of rare disasters are negatively related, both within and across investors. These five facts challenge the rational expectation framework for macro-finance, and provide important guidance for the design of behavioral models.

Notes on Mangrove Snake Boiga dendrophila multicincta (Boulenger, 1896) in Iwahig River, Puerto Princesa City

The genus Boiga is composed of about 20-30 species (Rodda et al. 1999) and widespread throughout low elevation and coastal habitats of the Philippines and other Asian countries. A sub-species, Boiga dendrophila divergens had been reported from the northeastern Luzon including the Babuyan Islands (see Brown et al. 2013). A Palawan endemic sub-species Boiga dendrophila multicincta is locally called ‘binturan’ (Leviton 1970). The species is commonly encountered in a semi-disturbed river in Iwahig, Puerto Princesa City, Palawan, Philippines. The one shown in the photo (~2m long) was spotted resting on branches of the mangrove tree Scyphiphora hydrophyllacea along the bank of Iwahig River, Puerto Princesa City (Figure 1). Two of the nine transect lines (intended for molluscs) had one mangrove snake at the start; several individuals were subsequently noted resting on branches of mangrove trees along the river banks, suggesting an unusually high population density. The same species is abundant in a semi-disturbed mangrove forest in Sitio Bunuangin, Port Barton, San Vicente (MPG Soniega, pers. comm.) and in a pristine mangrove forest in Puerto Princesa Underground River – one of the New Seven Wonders of Nature. The snake is feared for its tendency to chase intruders (people) once hurt. At night, it feeds on a variety of small vertebrates including birds, frogs, snakes and fishes (Minton & Dunson 1978; Savidge 1988). Boiga spp. are both important in the pharmaceutical industry (e.g. Lumsden et al. 2005; Mackessy et al. 2006) and pet trade (Shepherd et al. 2004; Mendizabal 2011). The mangrove snake is one of the many reptilian fauna in Palawan – the so-called “Philippines’ Last Frontier”. However, mangrove snake and other reptiles are illegally traded from Palawan. In 2011, 25 snakes, including 15 mangrove snakes, 9 vipers and a spitting cobra were seized by officials of the Palawan Conservation for Sustainable Development (PCSD) in El Nido, Palawan (Mendizabal 2011). While record of confiscation is limited, the magnitude of trade could be far higher than this. In addition, the seemingly unabated widespread habitat degradation in Palawan (Ramirez 2012; Tesorio 2013) could also threaten the existence of these species. Population survey and trade along with education and information campaign, and habitat protection and restoration could help conserve the populations of these mangrove snakes.

Greenhouse gases embodied in the international trade and final consumption of Finland: An input–output analysis

The estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with international trade and final consumption gives a more complete and balanced picture of the responsibilities of various countries for the emissions that cause the climate change. The aim of this study was to look at the impact of the coverage of the GHGs and their sources and assumptions regarding the emissions of imports on the results of GHG emissions associated with international trade and final consumption of Finland. In addition to a single year study, a trend covering years 1990–2003 was produced for Finland to study the development of the GHG emissions associated with domestic consumption and the reasons behind the development. According to our results Finland was in 1999 a net exporter of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion, CO 2 from all sources and GHGs of 4(4.2), 5 or 7 Gkg, respectively. The impact of different assumptions concerning the emissions embodied in imports in the case of Finland was tested by using the domestic emission intensities and the ratios of embodied emissions in imports in relation to domestic products by utilizing the data from the study by (OECD, 2003b. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods, STI Working Paper 2003/15, OECD, Paris). In the case of Finland, the differences of results calculated with these two methods remained rather small. The total emissions embodied in the imports changed from 33.8 to 34.4 Gkg and consequently the net export of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion changed from 4.2 to 3.6 Gkg. The results for 1990–2003 show that the GHG emissions embodied in the exports have exceeded the GHG emissions embodied in the imports from early 1990s. The reason for the increasingly positive GHG trade balance in the case of Finland has been the change in the magnitude of trade rather than the changes in its structure. The results show also that the impact of international transport on the emission intensity of imports is significant and merits further research.

NAFTA Trade with East Asia: Rules of Origin and Market Access in Textiles, Apparel, Footwear and Electrical Machinery

Rules of Origin and Market Access in Textiles, Apparel, Footwear and Electrical Machinery I. Introduction Rules of origin are among the most controversial aspects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Early assessments of NAFTA indicated that its rules of origin, contained in a nearly two hundred page compendium, were one of the agreement's most disappointing features (Hufbauer and Schott 1993).(1) Preferential trading arrangements must employ such rules in order to determine whether or not a good entering the customs territory is entitled to preferential treatment. In negotiations leading to the NAFTA, industry interests were well represented and were particularly involved in the design of detailed and product specific rules of origin (Krishna and Krueger 1995). The possible use of rules of origin as a protectionist device in a FTA was first pointed out in the seminal paper on this topic (Shibata 1967). It has now been shown that rules of origin may be used as tools of commercial policy in a customs union as well (Vermulst and Waer 1990; James 1997) in the context of the European Union (EU).(2) Awareness of the possible protectionist uses of such rules in the context of free trade areas (FTAs) has created new interest among economists in examining the welfare implications of FTAs. Some economists have regarded free trade agreements favorably, on the grounds that they, on balance, lead to lower trade barriers among members without raising barriers to nonmembers as is required by Article XXIV of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.(3) Bhagwati (1991) has taken up the cudgel in opposing discriminatory regional and other preferential trading arrangements on the grounds that they undermine multilateralism and the principles of GATT/WTO. Others have taken a middle ground, arguing that agreements such as NAFTA have desirable and undesirable features that need to be carefully weighed.(4) The arguments for and against FTAs have been largely based on non-empirical theoretical analysis and on ex ante judgements regarding the likely magnitude of trade and investment creation versus diversion.(5) It is too early to judge whether or not NAFTA as a whole is beneficial in terms of world economic welfare or to comment on the overall distribution of gains and losses. However, it is now possible to begin an empirical assessment of the performance of trade components of NAFTA. Based on UN Commodity Trade Statistics, this paper examines trade in textiles and apparel among NAFTA members (Canada, Mexico and the United States). Textiles and apparel have the strictest rules of origin and, therefore, have the greatest potential with regard to trade diversion and protectionism (Hufbauer and Schott 1992 and 1993, Krueger 1997, and Krishna and Krueger 1995, Stephenson 1998). East Asian countries that have rapidly expanded market share in global markets for textiles and apparel, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are most likely to be harmed by any trade diversion resulting from NAFTA's rules of origin. II. Triple-Transformation -- NAFTA Rules of Origin for Textiles and Apparel Special rules of origin governing trade in fibers, yams, fabrics, made-up textiles and clothing are set out in NAFTA Vol. II, annex 401 (HS chapters 50-63), and pp. 401-30 and 401-51. In essence these rules establish that most items of textiles and apparel must be produced from yam-forward to be conferred origin within the FTA. Some items must even have the fibers used to produce yarn originate within NAFTA (a fiber-forward rule). Some apparel items that require fabrics not generally available in NAFTA (such as silk, certain types of linen and shirt-making fabric) are allowed to qualify for preferential treatment, provided that otherwise they meet NAFTA labelling and origin requirements. These items, however, constitute a very small share of NAFTA trade in apparel.(6) The requirement of yarn-forward production of textiles and apparel practically requires apparel items to use only fabrics produced with yam from a NAFTA member and further requires that the cutting and sewing operations wholly occur within NAFTA. …