Magnitude Of Health Benefits Research Articles

ESPGHAN and NASPGHAN 2023 protocol for paediatric FAPD treatment guidelines (standard operating procedure)

IntroductionTo date, no international guidelines have been published for the treatment of paediatric functional abdominal pain disorders (FAPDs), subcategorised into functional abdominal pain–not otherwise specified (FAP-NOS), irritable bowel syndrome (IBS),...

Defining decision thresholds for judgments on health benefits and harms using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Evidence to Decision (EtD) frameworks: a protocol for a randomised methodological study (GRADE-THRESHOLD)

IntroductionThe Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) and similar Evidence to Decision (EtD) frameworks require its users to judge how substantial the effects of interventions are on desirable...

Taxes and Subsidies for Improving Diet and Population Health in Australia: A Cost-Effectiveness Modelling Study

BackgroundAn increasing number of countries are implementing taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks to address the growing burden of dietary-related disease, but the cost-effectiveness of combining taxes on unhealthy foods and subsidies on healthy foods is not well understood.Methods and FindingsUsing a population model of dietary-related diseases and health care costs and food price elasticities, we simulated the effect of taxes on saturated fat, salt, sugar, and sugar-sweetened beverages and a subsidy on fruits and vegetables, over the lifetime of the Australian population. The sizes of the taxes and subsidy were set such that, when combined as a package, there would be a negligible effect on average weekly expenditure on food (<1% change). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the interventions individually, then determined the optimal combination based on maximising net monetary benefit at a threshold of AU$50,000 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY). The simulations suggested that the combination of taxes and subsidy might avert as many as 470,000 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 420,000 to 510,000) in the Australian population of 22 million, with a net cost-saving of AU$3.4 billion (95% UI: AU$2.4 billion to AU$4.6 billion; US$2.3 billion) to the health sector. Of the taxes evaluated, the sugar tax produced the biggest estimates of health gain (270,000 [95% UI: 250,000 to 290,000] DALYs averted), followed by the salt tax (130,000 [95% UI: 120,000 to 140,000] DALYs), the saturated fat tax (97,000 [95% UI: 77,000 to 120,000] DALYs), and the sugar-sweetened beverage tax (12,000 [95% UI: 2,100 to 21,000] DALYs). The fruit and vegetable subsidy (−13,000 [95% UI: −44,000 to 18,000] DALYs) was a cost-effective addition to the package of taxes. However, it did not necessarily lead to a net health benefit for the population when modelled as an intervention on its own, because of the possible adverse cross-price elasticity effects on consumption of other foods (e.g., foods high in saturated fat and salt). The study suggests that taxes and subsidies on foods and beverages can potentially be combined to achieve substantial improvements in population health and cost-savings to the health sector. However, the magnitude of health benefits is sensitive to measures of price elasticity, and further work is needed to incorporate potential benefits or harms associated with changes in other foods and nutrients that are not currently modelled, such as red and processed meats and fibre.ConclusionsWith potentially large health benefits for the Australian population and large benefits in reducing health sector spending on the treatment of non-communicable diseases, the formulation of a tax and subsidy package should be given a more prominent role in Australia’s public health nutrition strategy.

An unadjusted NNT was a moderately good predictor of health benefit

Background and Objective Whether the number needed to treat (NNT) is sufficiently precise to use in clinical practice remains unclear. We compared unadjusted NNTs to quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, a more comprehensive measures of health benefit. Study Design and Setting From a subset (n = 65) of a dataset of 228 cost-effectiveness analyses, we compared how well NNTs predicted clinically important QALY gains using correlation analysis, multivariable models and receiver-operator curve (ROC) analysis. Results NNT was inversely correlated with QALY gains ( P < .001); this relationship was affected by quality of life and life-expectancy gains of treatment ( P ≤ .04). The NNT is a moderately accurate predictor of treatments that provide large health benefits (area under ROC 0.74–0.81). For ruling out therapies with low QALY gains (threshold ≤0.125 to ≤0.5 QALYs), an NNT >15 had a sensitivity of 82% to 100%. For ruling in therapies with high QALY gains (threshold ≥0.125 to ≥0.5 QALYs), an NNT ≤5 had a specificity of 77%. Conclusion Using NNT thresholds of ≤5 and >15 to rule in and out therapies with large QALY gains may provide general guidance regarding the magnitude of health benefit.

The avoidable health effects of air pollution in three Latin American cities: Santiago, São Paulo, and Mexico City

Urban centers in Latin American often face high levels of air pollution as a result of economic and industrial growth. Decisions with regard to industry, transportation, and development will affect air pollution and health both in the short term and in the far future through climate change. We investigated the pollution health consequences of modest changes in fossil fuel use for three case study cities in Latin American: Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and São Paulo, Brazil. Annual levels of ozone and particulate matter were estimated from 2000 to 2020 for two emissions scenarios: (1) business-as-usual based on current emissions patterns and regulatory trends and (2) a control policy aimed at lowering air pollution emissions. The resulting air pollution levels were linked to health endpoints through concentration–response functions derived from epidemiological studies, using local studies where available. Results indicate that the air pollution control policy would have vast health benefits for each of the three cities, averting numerous adverse health outcomes including over 156,000 deaths, 4 million asthma attacks, 300,000 children's medical visits, and almost 48,000 cases of chronic bronchitis in the three cities over the 20-year period. The economic value of the avoided health impacts is roughly $21 to $165 billion (US). Sensitivity analysis shows that the control policy yields significant health and economic benefits even with relaxed assumptions with regard to population growth, pollutant concentrations for the control policy, concentration–response functions, and economic value of health outcomes. This research demonstrates the health and economic burden from air pollution in Latin American urban centers and the magnitude of health benefits from control policies.