Madden–Julian Oscillation Teleconnection Research Articles

Exploring the Relative Importance of the MJO and ENSO to North Pacific Subseasonal Predictability

AbstractHere we explore the relative contribution of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre‐industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections.

Sources of MJO teleconnection errors in the ECMWF extended‐range forecasts

AbstractThe European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) extended‐range forecasts display large errors in the representations of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections over the North Atlantic with a strong underestimation of the impact of the MJO on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following an MJO in Phase 2–3. The origin of this error was investigated using a large set of re‐forecasts covering 20 years where part of the atmosphere was relaxed towards the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) reanalysis. These relaxation experiments show that relaxing the Tropics significantly improves the MJO teleconnections associated with Phase 2–3, with a reduction of about 50% in the amplitude error of the teleconnections. However, model errors outside the Tropics also play an important role. Results also suggest that errors in local processes reduce by about 20% the amplitude of the MJO teleconnections over the North Atlantic. Another example of a source of MJO teleconnection errors is the near surface over the Tibetan and Mongolian Plateaux. Nudging this area towards ERA5 improves the representation of the Pacific subtropical jet and the amplitude of MJO teleconnections associated with Phase 2–3 in the extended‐range re‐forecasts. Nudging the stratosphere exerts a comparatively weaker impact on the MJO teleconnections 11–15 days after an MJO in Phase 2–3. Overall, these experiments indicate that there are multiple sources of MJO teleconnection errors, making the representation of realistic MJO teleconnection by dynamical models a particularly challenging task.

Responses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Global Warming: Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Abstract The impacts of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using the large-ensemble simulation from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2-LE) under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP370 scenario). Three SST change patterns are featured, distinguished by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific warming. MJO characteristics and its teleconnections responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the zonal SST gradient changes are examined. Results show that the anomalously strong El Niño–like SST change pattern significantly intensifies the MJO amplitude and enhances its eastward extension compared to the anomalously weak El Niño–like SST change pattern. These changes in MJO amplitude are further interpreted through the α framework. We also found no statistically different extratropical geopotential height responses to MJO between the three SST warming patterns, possibly due to strong internal climate variability. Changes in Rossby wave source between clusters also show a weak relationship with the MJO teleconnections. Our results highlight the importance of Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient changes on the changes of MJO but limited impacts on MJO teleconnections to the midlatitudes.

QBO modulation of MJO teleconnections in the North Pacific: impact of preceding MJO phases

This study examines the influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections in the North Pacific using ERA5 data. It is found that the Rossby wave trains induced by MJO phase 6–7 exhibit greater strength and robustness during the westerly QBO winter (WQBO) than during the easterly QBO winter (EQBO), although the MJO itself is weaker during the former. This counter-intuitive dependency of MJO teleconnections on the QBO is attributed to the preexisting MJO teleconnections prior to the MJO phase 6–7. The MJO phase 6–7 is more frequently preceded by stronger MJO phase 3–4 during the EQBO than during the WQBO. The preceding MJO phase 3–4 teleconnections, which have opposed signs to the MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections, result in a considerable attenuation of the MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections by destructive interference. This result is supported by linear model experiments. The subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models also indicate improved prediction skills of MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections during the WQBO compared to the EQBO. These results suggest that enhanced MJO activities during the EQBO do not necessarily result in stronger and more robust MJO teleconnections in the North Pacific.

The Role of the Stratosphere in Teleconnections Arising From Fast and Slow MJO Episodes

AbstractThe Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) can influence the extratropical circulation on timescales up to several weeks, with a dependence on the MJO characteristics: MJO episodes that propagate slowly across the Maritime Continent have a stronger impact on Euro‐Atlantic weather than fast MJO episodes. While the tropospheric pathway for MJO teleconnections with varying phase speeds is well understood, in this study, we investigate the contribution of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric pathway for fast versus slow MJO episodes. During slow MJO episodes, Phases 5–6 lead to increased upward wave propagation in the North Pacific sector, and subsequently enhanced heat flux at 100 hPa, leading to the weakening of the polar vortex. The results suggest a clear role of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling for slow MJO episodes, which is proposed as a mechanism for anomalously strong positive polar cap height anomalies in MJO Phases 7–8.

Decadal Variability of the Extratropical Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

AbstractThe Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub‐seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation, temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997, intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.

The Maritime Continent Barrier Effect on the MJO Teleconnections during the Boreal Winter Seasons in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract The Maritime Continent disrupts eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). This study surveys the impact of the disruption—often known as the barrier effect—on the MJO teleconnections. The MJO propagation may be broadly categorized based on whether the MJO precipitation crosses the Maritime Continent (MC) during extended boreal winter seasons: successfully propagating across the MC (MJO-C) or being blocked by the MC (MJO-B). Compositing atmospheric circulation upon these two categories reveals that precipitation anomalies of MJO-C are stronger and more coherent than those of MJO-B, while their phase speed and lifetime are comparable. MJO-C and MJO-B excite distinct extratropical responses due to their diabatic heating in the deep tropics. Midlatitude circulation displays stronger and long-lasting negative geopotential anomalies in the northern Pacific Ocean 5–14 days after phase 7–8 of MJO-C, but significantly weaker anomalies from MJO-B. The extratropical water vapor transport during MJO-B and MJO-C differs markedly after phase 2. The Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) both show significant response after phase 6 of MJO-C as its precipitation anomaly over the tropical Pacific during this period is stronger, while MJO-B has little impact on both. Surface air temperatures (SAT) at high latitudes during MJO-B and MJO-C are also significantly different. SAT is weaker and delayed in MJO-B in comparison to MJO-C, likely due to different meridional eddy heat fluxes.

Seasonality of MJO Impacts on Precipitation Extremes over the Western United States

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a unique type of organized tropical convection varying primarily on subseasonal time scales and is recognized as an important source of subseasonal predictability for midlatitude weather phenomena. This study provides observational evidence of MJO impacts on precipitation extreme intensity, frequency, and duration over the western United States. The results suggest a robust increase in precipitation extremes, especially in frequency, relative to climatological conditions over most of the western United States when the MJO is in its western Pacific phases during the extended boreal winter (October–March). Opposite changes are observed when the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The above MJO influence is characterized by strong seasonality, with the increase in extreme frequency mainly found in late autumn/early winter (OND) over California and a weaker or opposite response found in late winter (JFM). Also, MJO impacts have stronger regional consistency and persist for a longer time in OND compared to JFM. The seasonality of MJO impacts largely originates from the different amplitudes and patterns of both the MJO and basic states that are weaker and located/retreated more northwestward in OND than in JFM. This leads to different responses in MJO teleconnections including moisture transport and AR activity that contribute to the different precipitation extreme changes. The strong seasonality of the relationship between the MJO and western U.S. extreme precipitation shown in this study has implications to the source of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions, which has a potential value to stakeholders including water resource managers.

The Winter North Pacific Teleconnection in Response to ENSO and the MJO in Operational Subseasonal Forecasting Models Is Too Weak

Abstract Teleconnection patterns associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact weather and climate phenomena in the Pacific–North American region and beyond, and therefore accurately simulating these teleconnections is of importance for seasonal and subseasonal forecasts. Systematic biases in boreal midwinter ENSO and MJO teleconnections are found in eight subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models over the Pacific–North America region. All models simulate an anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height response that is too weak. This overly weak response is associated with overly weak subtropical upper-level convergence and a too-weak Rossby wave source in most models, and in several models there is also a biased subtropical Pacific jet, which affects the propagation of Rossby waves. In addition to this overly weak response, all models also simulate ENSO teleconnections that reach too far poleward toward Alaska and northeastern Russia. The net effect is that these models likely underestimate the impacts associated with the MJO and ENSO over western North America, and suffer from a reduction in skill from what could be achieved.

What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO?

AbstractThe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of variability across the Atlantic sector and is a key metric of extratropical forecast performance. Skilful predictions of the NAO are possible at medium‐range (1–2 weeks) and seasonal time scales. However, in a leading dynamical prediction system, we find that sub‐seasonal predictions (1 month NAO with a lead time of 20–30 days) are not statistically significant and represent a gap in forecast skill. In this study, we have investigated the potential for improving predictions using a large ensemble of dynamical hindcasts. First, we find that monthly predictions of the NAO are only weakly related to forecast errors at the medium‐range. This implies that improving medium‐range forecast performance is unlikely to drive significant improvements at longer lead times. Second, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub‐seasonal variability in the Tropics and projects onto the NAO with a lag of 10–15 days, but its teleconnection is only partially represented in current forecast systems. We, therefore, assess whether improved MJO‐NAO teleconnections are likely to lead to improved monthly NAO predictions. We find that even perfect MJO forecasts and teleconnections lead to only small improvements in NAO prediction skills. This work indicates that monthly timescales may represent a predictability gap for the NAO and hence the Euro‐Atlantic winter climate in which genuine skill improvements are difficult to achieve. Potential progress in this area could stem from currently unknown sources of skill and large initialised climate ensembles will be a vital tool for investigating these.

North Atlantic Oscillation response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation in a coupled climate model

Understanding and predicting the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is key to forecasting the weather in the United Kingdom (UK). It has been shown that particular phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) act as precursors to either NAO+ or NAO− events. We assess the ability of the UK Met Office coupled climate model (HadGEM3-GC3.1-MM) to simulate these NAO responses at lead times of 1–2 weeks and show that improvements are needed in the modelling of MJO teleconnection patterns.

Effect of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation on the Madden Julian Oscillation Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

AbstractThe Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the main source of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. MJO modulates rainfall in remote areas in the Southern Hemisphere by exciting tropical and extratropical wave trains. We use newly released reanalysis data to analyze how the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can influence the MJO's effects over the Southern Hemisphere, focusing on precipitation anomalies over South America. The anomalies in the intensity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and precipitation over Southeastern South America during MJO phases 1 and 4 are intensified during the easterly QBO. The extratropical wave train excited by the anomalous convection over the maritime continent during MJO phase 4 is affected by the QBO, with a stronger, better‐defined pattern during westerly QBO. The conclusions are supported by a perturbation experiment of a case study, conducted using a high‐top atmospheric global climate model where the QBO and MJO are controlled.

S2S Prediction in GFDL SPEAR: MJO Diversity and Teleconnections

Abstract A subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system was recently developed using the GFDL Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) global coupled model. Based on 20-yr hindcast results (2000–19), the boreal wintertime (November–April) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill is revealed to reach 30 days measured before the anomaly correlation coefficient of the real-time multivariate (RMM) index drops to 0.5. However, when the MJO is partitioned into four distinct propagation patterns, the prediction range extends to 38, 31, and 31 days for the fast-propagating, slow-propagating, and jumping MJO patterns, respectively, but falls to 23 days for the standing MJO. A further improvement of MJO prediction requires attention to the standing MJO given its large gap with its potential predictability (38 days). The slow-propagating MJO detours southward when traversing the Maritime Continent (MC), and confronts the MC prediction barrier in the model, while the fast-propagating MJO moves across the central MC without this prediction barrier. The MJO diversity is modulated by stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): the standing (slow-propagating) MJO coincides with significant westerly (easterly) phases of QBO, partially explaining the contrasting MJO prediction skill between these two QBO phases. The SPEAR model shows its capability, beyond the propagation, in predicting their initiation for different types of MJO along with discrete precursory convection anomalies. The SPEAR model skillfully predicts the observed distinct teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America related to the standing, jumping, and fast-propagating MJO, but not the slow-propagating MJO. These findings highlight the complexities and challenges of incorporating MJO prediction into the operational prediction of meteorological variables.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1

AbstractThe present study examines the characteristics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events represented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), DOE’s new Earth system model. The coupled E3SMv1 realistically simulates the eastward propagation of precipitation and moist static energy (MSE) anomalies associated with the MJO. As in observations, horizontal moisture advection and longwave radiative feedback are found to be the dominant processes in E3SMv1 that lead to the eastward movement and maintenance of the MJO MSE anomalies, respectively. Modulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Maritime Continent region by the MJO is also well represented in the model despite systematic biases in the magnitude and phase of the precipitation diurnal cycle. On the MJO impact over the midlatitude, E3SMv1 reasonably captures the pattern of the MJO teleconnections across the North Pacific and North America, with improvement in the performance in a high‐resolution version, despite the magnitude being a bit weaker than the observed. Regarding the interannual variability of the MJO, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of the zonal extent of MJO’s eastward propagation, as well as associated changes in the mean state moisture gradient in the tropical west Pacific, are well reproduced in the model. However, MJO in E3SMv1 exhibits no sensitivity to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the MJO propagation characteristics being almost identical between easterly QBO and westerly QBO years. Processes that have been suggested as critical to MJO simulation are also examined by utilizing recently developed process‐oriented diagnostics.

Changes in MJO Characteristics and Impacts in the Past Century

Abstract The changes of the MJO behavior and its impact on global precipitation, precipitation extremes, and high-frequency variability during the past century (1901–2010) were investigated using the NOAA-20CR dataset. It was found that the MJO amplitude was significantly strengthened, while its eastward phase speed hardly changed. The impacts of the MJO on precipitation in South China (SC), northern Australia (AU), and California (CA) were investigated. The anomalous rainfall in the regions was strengthened from the early to late twentieth century, with the percentage increase ranging from 67% in AU to 14% in CA. A moisture budget analysis indicated that the enhanced precipitation was primarily attributed to the effect of anomalous wind while the effect of the mean moisture change was small. The impact of the local meridional wind anomaly was critical in SC, while in AU and CA the zonal wind component dominated. The precipitation extremes had a significant increase from the early to late twentieth century. The cumulative extreme precipitation amount increased by 140%–150% in SC and AU and by 100% in CA, and the number of the extreme days increased by 110% in SC and AU and 70% in CA. Such increases are consistent with the strengthening of the high-frequency (HF; with a period less than 10 days) variability across the globe. The pattern of percentage increase of the HF variability resembles the pattern of percentage increase of MJO-scale precipitation. This implies that the MJO teleconnection pattern could exert a large-scale control on the HF variability and weather extremes. Significance Statement The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), a dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal oscillations, plays an important role in affecting global weather and climate. To understand to what extent the MJO and associated teleconnections change with global warming, this study adopts an alternative approach by analyzing a century-long reanalysis dataset rather than the outputs of climate models that consist of large uncertainties due to poor MJO simulations. We found that MJO-induced tropical and midlatitude precipitation and associated extremes and high-frequency variabilities were strengthened during the past century while the global mean surface temperature increases approximately by 1°C. The results derived from the present study provide a basis for assessing the future MJO behavior and associated climate impacts and for improving the extended-range prediction of severe weather and climate extremes.

Drivers of uncertainty in future projections of Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections

Abstract. Teleconnections from the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) are a key source of predictability of weather on the extended timescale of about 10–40 d. The MJO teleconnection is sensitive to a number of factors, including the mean dry static stability, the mean flow, and the propagation and intensity characteristics of the MJO, which are traditionally difficult to separate across models. Each of these factors may evolve in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, which will impact MJO teleconnections and potentially impact predictability on extended timescales. Current state-of-the-art climate models do not agree on how MJO teleconnections over central and eastern North America will change in a future climate. Here, we use results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical and SSP585 experiments in concert with a linear baroclinic model (LBM) to separate and investigate alternate mechanisms explaining why and how boreal winter (January) MJO teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America may change in a future climate and to identify key sources of inter-model uncertainty. LBM simulations suggest that a weakening teleconnection due to increases in tropical dry static stability alone is robust across CMIP6 models and that uncertainty in mean state winds is a key driver of uncertainty in future MJO teleconnections. Uncertainty in future changes to the MJO's intensity, eastward propagation speed, zonal wavenumber, and eastward propagation extent are other important sources of uncertainty in future MJO teleconnections. We find no systematic relationship between future changes in the Rossby wave source and the MJO teleconnection or between changes to the zonal wind or stationary Rossby wave number and the MJO teleconnection over the North Pacific and North America. LBM simulations suggest a reduction of the boreal winter MJO teleconnection over the North Pacific and an uncertain change over North America, with large spread over both regions that lends to weak confidence in the overall outlook. While quantitatively determining the relative importance of MJO versus mean state uncertainties in determining future teleconnections remains a challenge, the LBM simulations suggest that uncertainty in the mean state winds is a larger contributor to the uncertainty in future projections of the MJO teleconnection than the MJO.

Influence of Low‐Frequency PNA Variability on MJO Teleconnections to North American Atmospheric River Activity

AbstractThe Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) modulates atmospheric river (AR) activity along the West Coast of North America. The forecast skill of ARs based solely on the MJO phase is limited, motivating the identification of other predictive factors. Here we show that low‐frequency variability of the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern is mostly independent of the MJO, and the monthly PNA pattern influences the MJO‐AR relationship much more robustly than other large‐scale patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the quasi‐biennial oscillation. During PNA+ conditions, when the Pacific jet exit region is located further east than average, baroclinic wave packets extend downstream toward North America. The clear contrast in wave packets' zonal scale results in partitioning active and inactive AR phases. The PNA influence is most significant over the Pacific Northwest region of North America, where AR landfall is most frequent, with implied forecasting skill beyond 20 days.

Subseasonal Prediction Performance for Austral Summer South American Rainfall

AbstractSkillful and reliable predictions of week-to-week rainfall variations in South America, two to three weeks ahead, are essential to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems. We evaluate forecast performance for weekly rainfall in extended austral summer (November–March) in four contemporary subseasonal systems, including a new Brazilian model, at 1–5-week leads for 1999–2010. We measure performance by the correlation coefficient (in time) between predicted and observed rainfall; we measure skill by the Brier skill score for rainfall terciles against a climatological reference forecast. We assess unconditional performance (i.e., regardless of initial condition) and conditional performance based on the initial phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). All models display substantial mean rainfall biases, including dry biases in Amazonia and wet biases near the Andes, which are established by week 1 and vary little thereafter. Unconditional performance extends to week 2 in all regions except for Amazonia and the Andes, but to week 3 only over northern, northeastern, and southeastern South America. Skill for upper- and lower-tercile rainfall extends only to week 1. Conditional performance is not systematically or significantly higher than unconditional performance; ENSO and MJO events provide limited “windows of opportunity” for improved S2S predictions that are region and model dependent. Conditional performance may be degraded by errors in predicted ENSO and MJO teleconnections to regional rainfall, even at short lead times.

Diversity of the Global Teleconnections Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation

AbstractA recent study has revealed that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter exhibits diverse propagation patterns that consist of four archetypes: standing MJO, jumping MJO, slow eastward propagating MJO, and fast eastward propagating MJO. This study has explored the diversity of teleconnection associated with these four MJO groups. The results reveal that each MJO group corresponds to distinct global teleconnections, manifested as diverse upper-tropospheric Rossby wave train patterns. Overall, the teleconnections in the fast and slow MJO are similar to those in the canonical MJO constructed by the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, while the teleconnections in the jumping and standing MJO generally lose similarities to those in the canonical MJO. The causes of this diversity are investigated using a linearized potential vorticity equation. The various MJO tropical heating patterns in different MJO groups are the main cause of the diverse MJO teleconnections, as they induce assorted upper-level divergent flows that act as Rossby-wave sources through advecting the background potential vorticity. The variation of the Asian jet could affect the teleconnections over the Pacific jet exit region, but it plays an insignificant role in causing the diversity of global teleconnections. The numerical investigation with a linear baroclinic model shows that the teleconnections can be interpreted as linear responses to the MJO’s diabatic heating to various degrees for different MJO groups, with the fast and slow MJO having higher linear skill than the jumping and standing MJO. The results have broad implications in the MJO’s tropical–extratropical interactions and the associated impacts on global weather and climate.

Predictability of European Winters 2017/2018 and 2018/2019: Contrasting influences from the Tropics and stratosphere

AbstractThe European winters of 2017–18 and 2018–19 were not climatically extreme, but both winters had a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). In February 2018, an SSW led to an intense cold outbreak across Europe and further spells of cold weather in March. The SSW of January 2019, although well predicted and expected to increase the chance of a cold end to winter, apparently produced little impact. In this study, we examine the performance of the Met Office seasonal prediction system in these winters, and the influences that led to these outcomes. To achieve this latter objective, sets of numerical experiments are performed in which the tropical troposphere and the extratropical stratosphere are relaxed towards their observed state, allowing the influence of each on the North Atlantic‐European atmospheric circulation to be identified. Using these experiments, we show that the SSWs had similar impacts in each case, creating a signal of easterly surface wind anomalies in the weeks following the event. In contrast, tropical influences were opposite in the two winters, acting to strengthen the easterly signal at the end of February 2018 and opposing it in January 2019. The different apparent responses to the two events therefore came about largely through tropical tropospheric variability. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of a very strong cycle of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in late January and early February 2018 as an important driver for the February 2018 SSW. MJO teleconnections appear to have been critical in creating the large mid‐latitude wave 2 amplitude that has been identified as the immediate cause of this event.