Macroeconomic Shocks Research Articles

Energy and inflation crises in Romania and Slovenia: different institutions, similar responses

The 2021–2022 inflation crisis in the EU offers an opportunity to examine how diverse industrial relations systems respond to similar macroeconomic shocks. This article compares Romania and Slovenia, two post-communist countries whose industrial relations systems are poles apart. The expectation was that, in contrast to the enfeebled Romanian system, Slovenia would not only resort to social dialogue but also adopt comprehensive measures to shield workers from the dual energy- and food-related shock. Yet, there was less divergence than anticipated. In particular, while unilateralism took place in Romania because of the weakness of its unions post-2011, the interruption of tripartite negotiations in Slovenia was the result of the social partners’ actions and not a deliberate government strategy. Hence, while confirming that governments play the main role in supporting social dialogue, this article suggests that the social partners also carefully ponder the costs and benefits of their involvement in tripartite policy-making.

Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Financial Performance and Risk Management: A Case Study of LPP SA During the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Ukraine War

This study analyses the impact of two major macroeconomic shocks—the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war—on the financial stability of LPP SA, a leading apparel company in Poland and Central and Eastern Europe. This research uses the coefficient of variation to assess changes in financial volatility and evaluates the effectiveness of LPP SA’s risk management strategies. The findings reveal that, while the COVID-19 pandemic had a more destabilising effect on the company’s performance, the Ukraine war’s impact was mitigated by strategic diversification and resource reallocation. The study’s implications are relevant for risk management practices in the apparel industry and other consumer-driven sectors.

Time-varying effects of macro shocks on cross-border capital flows in China's bond market

As the most innovative initiative for the liberalization of Chinese bond market, the Bond Connect program greatly promotes the participation of cross-border capitals. In this paper, by analyzing the changes in the number of foreign investors entering the market, the volume of bond trading and the total amount of bond holdings, we find that the Bond Connect has become the dominant platform for foreign investors to participate in the Chinese bond market. Besides, using a TVP-VAR model based on a set of monthly time-series data from July 2017 to September 2023, we identify the dynamic impacts of four macroeconomic shocks: bond market forces, economic growth forces, monetary policy shocks, and economic policy uncertainty, on net capital inflows into the Chinese bond market. The results indicate that all these macroeconomic forces significantly affect capital inflows, with bond market forces exerting the greatest impact. Moreover, the direction, magnitude, and trends of each macro factor's impact on net capital inflows exhibit distinct characteristics.

Determinants of Household and Professional Forecasters’ Inflation Expectations in India

ABSTRACTThis study analyses and compares the determinants of inflation expectations among households and professional forecasters in India. To this end, we utilize quarterly survey data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), specifically the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) and the Professional Forecasters’ Survey (SPF). The analysis employs a non‐recursive structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to explore the relationships between variables. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis shed light on the response of inflation expectations to macroeconomic shocks. Our findings indicate that apart from conventional macroeconomic factors like realized inflation and monetary policy, exogenous factors such as oil prices significantly shape inflation expectations. Comparing IESH and SPF, we found out that household expectations are more sensitive to shocks related to food prices, reflecting the influence of food expenses on household decision‐making. Conversely, professional forecasters’ expectations are more influenced by core inflation. Finally, we observed that inflation expectations adjust more quickly than realized inflation in response to macroeconomic shocks, suggesting a leading role. This study is novel with the contribution to the existing literature as it provides a comparative analysis of determinants of inflation expectations between households and professional forecasters in India, while also considering inflation targeting as a significant factor.

The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters

Abstract When a macroeconomic shock arrives, variation in household balance sheet health (captured by the presence of financial distress, or “FD”) leads to differential access to credit and hence a distribution in consumption responses. As we document, though, over the past two recessions, households in prior FD also experienced macroeconomic shocks more intensely than others, leading to a distribution of shock severity. Quantifying the importance of each dimension of heterogeneity (FD or shock severity) for consumption requires a structural model. We find that heterogeneity in FD matters more for shaping the responses of individual and aggregate consumption to shocks.

Domestic inflation decomposition in a small open economy: Evidence from import price dynamics in Kazakhstan

This paper empirically analyzes the key drivers of inflation in Kazakhstan by differentiating between demand and supply-driven factors contributing to headline inflation. Given that Kazakhstan is highly sensitive to adverse external fluctuations (due to its economic structure), our empirical strategy investigates asymmetric dynamics of prices of goods with high versus low degree of import share. Hence, we develop a methodology to determine the level of “importability” in certain consumption products, which serves as a proxy of vulnerability to external macroeconomic shocks. The results confirm our hypothesis that products with different degree of import content respond differently to major macroeconomic shocks. Consequently, we conclude that headline inflation in Kazakhstan is primarily impacted by supply-side factors, such as the direct transmission of exchange rate changes to prices of products with higher import shares (exchange rate pass-through) and a large component of inflation inertia. Differentiating and properly identifying inflation dynamics of the high-import-content and low-import-content goods have important implications for optimal monetary policy conduct in developing economies.

Influence of macroeconomic factors on construction costs: an analysis of project cases

This study explores the relationship between price increase and project cost increase under macroeconomic shocks by considering the hierarchical structure within price categories, diversification of the cost breakdown structure, infrastructure sector, delivery system, construction methods, and type of bid. The analysis of a large construction company with five large projects as embedded units of analysis reveals significant variations in the relative influence of specific factors across the projects. Unit price categories located higher in the hierarchical breakdown structure display lower vulnerability to macroeconomic changes due to their unique and group-specific influencing factors while price categories influenced by macroeconomic factors depart at lower values in the hierarchical structure. Projects with low-cost breakdown structure diversification can either mitigate or exacerbate cost increases depending on construction methods (off-site or on-site), price drivers of most representative materials (global or local), and delivery systems risk allocation. Under macroeconomic crisis periods, public entities may consider giving high priority to projects more reliant on materials driven by regional dynamics (e.g., concrete pouring) over those driven by global market conditions (e.g., steel, aluminum) while prioritizing integrated delivery systems (e.g., design-build) that promote enhanced collaboration, proactive risk management, aligned incentives, and adaptability for managing complexities and volatilities. Complementary, for projects with higher reliance on global market-driven materials, the results suggest that contractors should prioritize early procurement and acquisition of highly volatile resources in projects under macroeconomic crises.

Macroeconomic shocks, regulatory uncertainty, and the drive towards financial inclusiveness in emerging economies

Macroeconomic shocks, regulatory uncertainty, and the drive towards financial inclusiveness in emerging economies

Inflation forecasting in turbulent times

AbstractIn the recent years many countries were hit by a series of macroeconomic shocks, most notably as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, raising inflation rates to multi-decade highs and suspending well-documented macroeconomic relationships. To capture these tail events, we propose a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with Student t-distributed innovations or with stochastic volatility. Whereas inflation, industrial production, as well as oil and gas prices are available at monthly frequencies, real gross domestic product (GDP) is observed at a quarterly frequency. Thus, we apply a mixed-frequency setup using the forward-filtering–backward-sampling algorithm to generate monthly real GDP growth rates. We forecast inflation in those euro area countries that extensively import energy from Russia and therefore have been heavily exposed to the recent oil and gas price shocks. To measure the forecast performance of the mixed-frequency BVAR model, we compare our inflation forecasts with those generated by a battery of competing inflation forecasting models. The proposed BVAR models dominate the competition for all countries in terms of the log predictive density score.

Development of the market of digital financial assets in the context of ensuring financial sovereignty of Russia

Currently, in the context of limited external funding, the issues of forming the financial sovereignty of the country are becoming the subject of scientific discourse among Russian economists. The introduction of digital financial assets (DFA) into business practice and their legislative recognition largely ensures the expansion of investment opportunities for economic entities, which will contribute to the end of the stagnant macroeconomic shock of the period of 2021–2024. The work covers solving such scientific problems as clarifying the essential nature of DFA and developing their classification; assessing the process of functioning of the investment market based on the use of digital financial instruments; identifying key limitations in the functioning of the basic institutions regulating the DFA circulation. The authors proposed a clarified formulation of the economic category of digital financial assets, taking into account the peculiarities of its essential nature. An analysis of the functioning of the domestic DFA market is carried out. Among the factors hindering the development of the DFA market, its fragmentation, low liquidity, and weak institutional regulation of the issue and circulation of DFA are highlighted. The authors emphasize the positive effect of the development of the digital infrastructure of the market, in particular, the increase in the number of investment platforms licensed by the Bank of Russia, the reduction of costs of access to them, the development of a market-making system in the secondary market of digital financial assets. The authors believe that the leveling of the contradictions of the investment market should occur due to the improvement of the institutional environment in the field of strengthening control over transactions with digital financial assets, as well as ensuring their mandatory registration, which is absent at the present stage. The development of the domestic market of digital financial assets has significant potential due to, firstly, the desire of economic entities to replace traditional financial instruments with digital ones, which allow reducing significantly transaction and transformation costs; secondly, the expansion of investment opportunities for economic actors through the use of digital platforms and other elements of the digital ecosystem for the purpose of business development; thirdly, the transformation of the traditional business model, which provides for the transition from vertical interaction of entities to a network form of coordination of economic agents using decentralized financial instruments in their activities.

Bankruptcy spillovers and stock price crash risk of non-bankrupt firms

This paper examines whether corporate bankruptcies affect non-bankrupt firms' stock price crash risk. We observe that an upsurge in corporate bankruptcies adversely affects the crash risk of non-bankrupt firms in the industry. The increase in the crash risk following bankruptcy clustering in an industry is greater in financially constrained and financially distressed non-bankrupt firms. We also find that the creditor-in-control bankruptcy regime moderates the adverse effects of bankruptcy spillovers on the crash risk of non-bankrupt firms. Our results are robust to endogeneity tests (using GMM estimators) and tests that exclude industry downturns and macroeconomic shocks.

Default Risk, Risk Premium, and Corporate Resilience: The Role of Regulatory and Stabilization Policies

This study investigates the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy measures and evaluates whether policymakers should address financial disruptions. To achieve this goal, we developed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates frictions in financial markets and financial shocks alongside traditional macroeconomic shocks. One of the main focuses of macroprudential policies is to stabilize credit cycles. We used Moroccan data to estimate the model and assess various policy actions to counter imbalances in financial markets, including adjustments to the interest rate tool. Our findings highlight the benefits of addressing financial disruptions, the extent depending on the shock characteristics. While acting on interest rates in response to financial variables may stabilize some economic factors, it has the potential to increase the volatility of others substantially. The results confirm that the use of optimal regimes can reduce default processes and ensure companies stabilize risk premiums. Implementing such regulations leads to greater opening of the companies’ capital to external financing sources. JEL Classification C11, D53, D58, E52, E58

Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization

We propose a method for identifying exposure to changes in trade policy based on asset prices that has several advantages over standard measures: it encompasses all avenues of exposure, it is natively firm-level, it yields estimates for both goods and service producers, and it can be used to study reductions in difficult-to-quantify non-tariff-barriers in a way that controls naturally for broader macroeconomic shocks. Applying our method to two well-studied US trade liberalizations provides new insight into service-sector responses and reveals dramatically different outcomes among small versus large firms, even within narrow industries.

경제정책 불확실성이 한국 금융 불안에 미치는 영향 분석

Korea is a small open economy and is significantly affected by macroeconomic shocks in major countries. Previous studies have shown that financial markets such as the stock market and foreign exchange market are sensitive to financial instability and economic policy uncertainty in major developed countries. However, these studies have typically focused on individual financial markets and have not comprehensively analyzed how financial stress in Korea is affected by uncertainty in major developed countries from the perspective of financial stability. In this study, we use the spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz(2009, 2012) to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States, Europe, Japan, and Korea on Korea's financial stress index (FSI). The study examines the influence of economic policy uncertainty in these major developed countries on Korea's financial stress over time. Furthermore, the findings indicate that during periods of heightened uncertainty, major developed countries have a relatively large impact on Korea's financial stress.

Macroeconomic shock effects on beef carcass premiums

Macroeconomic shock effects on beef carcass premiums

The nonlinear impacts of macroeconomic shocks on the US regional housing markets

ABSTRACT This paper examines the asymmetrical impacts of aggregate macroeconomic shocks on the US regional housing markets by estimating nonlinear Vector Autoregressive models. We show how aggregate output, monetary, inflation, and credit shocks result in heterogenous impulse responses of the housing market volatilities across growing and declining housing market regimes in nine census divisions and 19 metropolitan cities. We find that output and inflation shocks cause qualitatively asymmetrical responses across regimes in majority of regions. A positive output shock and a negative inflation shock reduce (increase) housing price uncertainties when housing markets are in a declining (booming) regime in most regions. The responses of regional housing price volatilities to monetary and credit shocks are quantitatively asymmetrical across regimes in most regions. We also find that aggregate shocks have larger contributions on changing the probabilities of regime switching when a regional housing market is initially expanding than declining. Among aggregate shocks, inflation shock has the most prominent contributions across most regions. It also presents the strongest asymmetrical effects across positive and negative shocks. Our results can help regional decision makers utilize fiscal policies, regulatory measures, and regional planning to mitigate the destabilizing effects of macroeconomic shocks on regional housing markets.

Exchange rate in emerging markets: Shock absorber or source of shock?

This paper examines the stabilization role of flexible exchange rates for emerging economies within the Latin America and Asia regions. Based on a structural VAR model, we utilize zero, sign and exchange rate pass-through restrictions to identify structural macroeconomic shocks. Overall, we find that exogenous exchange rate shocks drive around half of total exchange rate fluctuations in emerging economies. Despite this predominant role, we find evidence that exchange rates do not act as a source of shocks to the real economy, but they instead absorb and reduce output growth and inflation volatilities. Based on counterfactual analyses, we further find that this shock-insulation property is highly shock-dependent, where the benefits of flexible exchange rates are sizable for demand and global monetary policy shocks, but are overall small in the face of supply shocks. Results also differ across time horizons, where the shock stabilization benefits are mainly limited to the short run for output, but also extend to the medium term for inflation. We also find that the net benefits of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber are in general larger for emerging economies in Latin America than in Asia, particularly during crises periods. Finally, while we find that the stabilization role of exchange rates hinges upon the nature of underlying structural shocks, there is also a positive association with structural determinants such as a country's degree of exchange rate flexibility and trade openness.

Empirical analysis of the J-Curve and Marshall-Lerner condition: impacts of macroeconomic shocks on the Brazilian trade balance using a Bayesian SVAR Identified via heteroskedasticity

ABSTRACT This study examines the impacts of macroeconomic shocks on the Brazilian trade balance, disaggregated into five sectors, using a Bayesian SVAR model identified via heteroskedasticity. We find significant evidence supporting the Marshall-Lerner condition across all sectors analysed. Although we have not observed significant evidence supporting the J-curve, there is a higher probability of the phenomenon occurring than not occurring. Additionally, our findings indicate that a world GDP shock influences the domestic trade balance with the expected sign. A ‘pessimism’ shock regarding domestic economic activity leads to an improvement in the trade balance. Moreover, it is observed that an increase in GDP, even when caused by a supply shock, leads to a deterioration of the trade balance in the medium term.

Macroeconomic news and price jumps: evidence from ETFs and LOFs in China

PurposeWe examine the relationship between macroeconomic news and fund price jumps, using high-frequency 5-min intraday data for Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Listed Open-end Funds (LOFs) from 2019 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachWe utilize the non-parametric jump test known as the LM method to detect fund price jumps. In addition, we perform Logistic regression to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic news and fund price jumps. Moreover, we use multiple linear regression to explore the relationship between fund price jumps and subsequent returns.FindingsThe probability of price jumps increases by 22.56% when macroeconomic news is released. Moreover, the returns associated with news-driven price jumps display a reversal pattern, and there is an asymmetric relationship in subsequent returns following macroeconomic shocks. Specifically, funds tend to exhibit lower returns after news-driven price jumps compared to those that are not influenced by news events.Research limitations/implicationsIn today's digital age, investors have unprecedented access to a wealth of information through the Internet and various communication platforms. News and market data can be instantly accessed and disseminated, allowing for swift dissemination of information to investors worldwide. However, despite this enhanced accessibility, investors continue to exhibit overreactions or underreactions to new information.Practical implicationsMacroeconomic news release provide crucial insights into the overall health and performance of the economy. By monitoring and analyzing these indicators, investors can gain valuable information that can guide their investment decisions. Furthermore, by fostering a transparent and reliable information disclosure systems, governments can play a critical role in ensuring the stability and transparency of the funds market.Originality/valueThe paper utilizes 5-min high-frequency data from funds and incorporates a comprehensive macroeconomic news information database. These methodological choices enhance the precision and reliability of the analysis, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between macroeconomic news releases and fund price jumps.

Uncertainty in banking and debt financing of firms in Vietnam.

This study explores the effects of banking uncertainty on firms' debt financing. Employing data from 2007 to 2022 of Vietnam-a bank-based economy, we document that banking uncertainty negatively impacts corporate debt. The impact firmly holds across various debt maturities and sources, with the most predominant driver witnessed in bank debt. We also investigate the potential underlying mechanism linking banking uncertainty to debt financing, thereby validating the working of three crucial channels, including increased costs of debt, substitution of trade credit, and contractions in firm investment. Furthermore, conducting extended analysis, we find that debt financing exhibits more pronounced reactions to banking uncertainty for firms with closer ties to banks or during macroeconomic shocks, as captured by the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings survive after robustness checks by alternative measurement, static and dynamic econometric models, and endogeneity controls.