Macroeconomic Policy Responses Research Articles

Study on the Impact of Population Structure Changes on Macroeconomic Development and Policy Response Strategies

In today's society, multiple factors influence macroeconomic development, among which changes in population structure play a significant role. Due to socioeconomic developments and shifts in birth attitudes, changes in population structure have occurred globally, not only in the number of people but also in aspects such as age structure, urban-rural distribution, and educational levels. To some extent, changes in population structure directly impact the labor market, where an increase in the elderly population proportion and a decline in the working-age population pose new challenges. Furthermore, an aging population demands higher requirements for social security systems, putting significant pressure on government finances. Therefore, in-depth research on the impact of population structure changes on macroeconomic development and the formulation of corresponding policy response strategies are crucial for promoting sustainable economic development and maintaining social stability.

Assessing The U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Response To The COVID-19 Recession

Assessing The U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Response To The COVID-19 Recession

FORECASTING STOCK MARKET CRASHES VIA REAL-TIME RECESSION PROBABILITIES: A QUANTUM COMPUTING APPROACH

A fast and precise prediction of stock market crashes is an important aspect of economic growth, fiscal and monetary systems because it facilitates the government in the application of suitable policies. Many works have examined the behavior of the fall of stock markets and have built models to predict them. Nevertheless, there are limitations to the available research, and the literature calls for more investigation on the topic, as currently the accuracy of the models remains low and they have only been extended for the largest economies. This study provides a comparison of quantum forecast methods and stock market declines and, therefore, a new prediction model of stock market crashes via real-time recession probabilities with the power to accurately estimate future global stock market downturn scenarios is achieved. A 104-country sample has been used, allowing the sample compositions to take into account the regional diversity of the alert warning indicators. To obtain a robust model, several alternative techniques have been employed on the sample under study, being Quantum Boltzmann Machines, which have obtained very good prediction results due to their ability to remember features and develop long-term dependencies from time series and sequential data. Our model has large policy implications for the appropriate macroeconomic policy response to downside risks, offering tools to help achieve financial stability at the international level.

Macroeconomic and monetary policy responses in selected highly indebted MENA countries post Covid 19: A structural VAR approach

With limited fiscal space, MENA governments with flexible exchange rates have been relying extensively on accommodative monetary policy to circumvent external shocks such as Covid 19 and other domestic macroeconomic imbalances. Other MENA countries with high debt levels and fixed exchange rates are not able to use conventional monetary policy effectively. We use a battery of econometric models to identify domestic and external nominal shocks affecting the MENA region and their dynamic transmission mechanisms through impulse response functions and granger causality tests derived from a structural VAR. Once the nature of those shocks is identified, we formulate appropriate macroeconomic policy responses to mitigate their effects. We show that shocks to Saudi Arabia’s macroeconomic fundamentals and oil prices have a significant impact on MENA countries’ GDP, inflation, and interest rates. In the absence of an effective conventional monetary policy, MENA central banks will have to rely more on non-conventional monetary policy tools.

Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses

We discuss and review literature on the macroeconomic effects of epidemics and pandemics since the late twentieth century. First, we cover the role of health in driving economic growth and well-being and discuss standard frameworks for assessing the economic burden of infectious diseases. Second, we sketch a general theoretical framework to evaluate the trade-offs policy makers must consider when addressing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions. In so doing, we emphasize the dependence of economic consequences on (i) disease characteristics; (ii) inequalities among individuals in terms of susceptibility, preferences, and income; and (iii) cross-country heterogeneities in terms of their institutional and macroeconomic environments. Third, we study pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical policies aimed at mitigating and preventing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions. Fourth, we discuss the health toll and economic impacts of five infectious diseases: HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, influenza, and COVID-19. Although major epidemics and pandemics can take an enormous human toll and impose a staggering economic burden, early and targeted health and economic policy interventions can often mitigate both to a substantial degree. (JEL E20, H50, I12, I14, I15, I18, J17)

An Islamic critique of rival economic systems’ theories of interest

PurposeThis paper aims to contribute an Islamic critique of various competing economic system’s theories of interest, which have evolved within the distinct ideological frameworks of distinct rival economic systems and religions from the point of view of discovering potential effective Islamic economic solutions of the interest-driven modern economic, financial and banking and debt crises and the related problems of inflation, extreme, wealth inequalities and extreme poverty.Design/methodology/approachThis historical research paper portrays the chronological evolution of competing narratives and theories of interest in realms of religions, philosophies and rival economic systems for contributing their comparative review and critique from an Islamic point of view in light of the pertinent literature of multidisciplinary history of religions, philosophies and economic thought. It develops an Islamic critique of theories of interest in light of interactions among history of religious thought on interest, history of economic thought on interest and economic theories of interest and the interest-driven economic crises for highlighting potential Islamic interest-free solutions of the modern economic crises in the framework of the Islamic political economy. In light of an Islamic critique of various competing theories of interest, the paper presents pertinent economic policy recommendations for the governments of the countries of the contemporary Muslim world.FindingsThe interest-free Islamic economic, as well as banking theories and models, offer the potential practical exploitation-free and injustice-free humanitarian solutions of the contemporary persisting macroeconomic crises (national, regional and global economic crises, financial crises, debt crises and banking crisis). Current Islamic discourses on interest and interest-free Islamic banking have effectively promoted the popularity and growth of global Islamic banking industry in the Muslim world in the 21st century.Practical implicationsKeeping in view a general universal consensus of the Islamic jurists on the elimination of interest of all types from the economy, it is recommended for the Governments of the Muslim countries to implement a consensus-based Islamic banking model, which uses only the Islamic juristic consensus-based Islamic modes of banking and finance – Musharikah, Mudharabah and Al-Qardh Al-Hassan (interest-free loan) – for precluding the possibilities of emergence of controversies about the prospective Riba-free Islamic economic and banking system. Litmus test of the practical success of the interest-free Islamic universal economic and banking system is the successful elimination of all forms of Riba (interest) and all possibilities of its involvement in extractive and exploitative activities in letter and spirit.Originality/valueThis research paper contributes a comprehensive logical and objective critique of various competing prominent theories of interest from an Islamic economic point of view and highlights their pertinent practical macroeconomic problems-cum-consequences as well as the potential Islamic macroeconomic policy responses in the form of interest-free Islamic banking/monetary/fiscal policies.

Recent advances and future directions in macro-finance: macroeconomic conditions and corporate decisions

A decade after the 2007–2009 financial crisis, the covid-19 pandemic causes disruptive economic conditions and its uncertain nature makes the formulation of macroeconomic policy response challenging. Meanwhile, extreme weather and natural disasters linked to climate change become more frequent and adversely affect the economy. These challenges highlight the importance of better understanding the effects of macroeconomic conditions on corporate decisions. This article reviews the related macro-finance literature and introduces articles included in this special issue on this theme. In the end, we suggest possible future research directions.

Distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks in real-time

The highly dynamic nature of the COVID-19 crisis poses an unprecedented challenge to policy makers around the world to take appropriate income-stabilizing countermeasures. To properly design such policy measures, it is important to quantify their effects in real-time. However, data on the relevant outcomes at the micro level is usually only available with considerable time lags. In this paper, we propose a novel method to assess the distributional consequences of macroeconomic shocks and policy responses in real-time and provide the first application to Germany in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, our approach combines different economic models estimated on firm- and household-level data: a VAR-model for output expectations, a structural labor demand model, and a tax-benefit microsimulation model. Our findings show that as of September 2020 the COVID-19 shock translates into a noticeable reduction in gross labor income across the entire income distribution. However, the tax benefit system and discretionary policy responses to the crisis act as important income stabilizers, since the effect on the distribution of disposable household incomes turns progressive: the bottom two deciles actually gain income, the middle deciles are hardly affected, and only the upper deciles lose income.

Macroeconomic Policy Responses to COVID-19: A Case of Indonesia

The health crisis triggered by the COVID-19 virus has spread to a multidimensional crisis and has a domino effect on the socio-economic and financial sectors. The economic crisis as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has become increasingly severe because it was accompanied by lockdown and physical distancing policies which resulted in decreasing productivity in the economy. The purpose of this research is to describe the structured efforts taken by the Government of Indonesia in dealing with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The policy combination adopted by the Government of Indonesia is in the form of policies to issue a series of regulations providing legal certainty and flexibility while still highlighting the accountability. Refocusing and budget reallocation are also taken by the government to provide more flexible space for Ministries/Institutions to contribute to managing the impact of COVID-19. Another policy is the issuance of three stimulus packages and the launch of the National Economic Recovery Program (PEN).

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

Abstract COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high.

Prema-chandra Athukorala Comment on Rethinking “Economic Fundamentals” in an Era of Global Physical Shocks: Insights from the Philippines Experience with COVID-19

Prema-chandra Athukorala Comment on Rethinking “Economic Fundamentals” in an Era of Global Physical Shocks: Insights from the Philippines Experience with COVID-19

Outcomes for Implemented Macroeconomic Policy Responses and Multilateral Collaboration Strategies for Economic Recovery After a Crisis: A Rapid Scoping Review.

To promote postpandemic recovery, many countries have adopted economic packages that include fiscal, monetary, and financial policy measures; however, the effects of these policies may not be known for several years or more. There is an opportunity for decision makers to learn from past policies that facilitated recovery from other disease outbreaks, crises, and natural disasters that have had a devastating effect on economies around the world. To support the development of the United Nations Research Roadmap for COVID-19 Recovery, this review examined and synthesized peer-reviewed studies and gray literature that focused on macroeconomic policy responses and multilateral coalition strategies from past pandemics and crises to provide a map of the existing evidence. We conducted a systematic search of academic and gray literature databases. After screening, we found 22 records that were eligible for this review. The evidence found demonstrates that macroeconomic and multilateral coalition strategies have various impacts on a diverse set of countries and populations. Although the studies were heterogeneous in nature, most did find positive results for macroeconomic intervention policies that addressed investments to strengthen health and social protection systems, specifically cash and unconventional/nonstandard monetary measures, in-kind transfers, social security financing, and measures geared toward certain population groups.

Migrant Labor and Remittances: Macroeconomic Consequences and Policy Responses

Many developing countries experiencing poor domestic economic performance view migrant labor as an alternative. We employ a macrodynamic model of two small open economies—a host country and a labor-exporting developing country—to address this issue. We analyze how both economies are impacted by alternative tax policies, structural changes occurring in the two economies, and plausible fiscal policy responses. The most important feature of the model is that remittances are endogenized by being linked to the household members’ decisions to migrate. Extensive numerical simulations provide important implications for both fiscal and migration policies and address important questions regarding the current efforts put forward by governments of several developing countries to encourage migrant labor.

The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach

This study examines, diagnoses, and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19. The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply loss due to illness and closed activities and their effects on GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. We explore five economic scenarios—shocks—using the available data from January 2006 to December 2019, following real out-of-sample forecasts generated from January 2020 to December 2020. Sensitivity scenarios spanning January 2020 to June 2020 from ± 10 to ± 60% were analyzed. We observed what happens to the supply and demand sides, namely, GDP, tourism, capital stock, human capital, health expenditures, economic freedom, and unemployment. The results show a toll on the GDP, tourism, unemployment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2020. The recommended policy measures are public finance spending initiatives focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegrin companies. Considering all uncertainties, the rebound of the Montenegrin economy could take a few years to reach pre-COVID 19 output levels.

Covid-19 Crisis: India's Macroeconomic Policy Response and Future Challenges

Covid-19 Crisis: India's Macroeconomic Policy Response and Future Challenges

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high.

Novel Corona Virus Covid-19: Impact on Economic Development and Mitigating Solution for Developing Countries

The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the developing countries economy highly. According to World Health Organization (WHO) there have been 4,660,658 confirmed cases of COVID 19, including 309,710 death till May 16, 2020 globally. And 78,280 Confirmed cases and 2,624 Number of deaths in Africa. Data for the study was generated from desk review of secondary materials, online blogs and interview through social media chat. Findings of the study reveal that the outbreak and spread of covid-19 disease led to rapid shutdowns in cities and states across the country, which greatly affected the economic development. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. The article describes the impact of the COVID-19 virus on the economic development of developing countries and its mitigating solution. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the developing countries economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high. Among the suggested policy solutions are: proactive management approaches, health policy framework addressing many of the social determinants of health, education and health literacy, national and international shifts in investments, public and private partnerships and the establishment of the Developing countries Technical Council on Coronavirus. Effective implementation of these policy solutions will require full support of all stakeholders, including governments, the media, non- governmental organizations, health professionals, communities, and individuals.

Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in Real-Time: A Novel Method Applied to the COVID-19 Crisis in Germany

The highly dynamic nature of the COVID-19 crisis poses an unprecedented challenge to policy makers around the world to take appropriate income-stabilizing countermeasures. To properly design such policy measures, it is important to quantify their effects in real-time. However, data on the relevant outcomes at the micro level is usually only available with considerable time lags. In this paper, we propose a novel method to assess the distributional consequences of macroeconomic shocks and policy responses in real-time and provide the first application to Germany in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, our approach combines different economic models estimated on firm- and household-level data: a VAR-model for output expectations, a structural labor demand model, and a tax-benefit microsimulation model. Our findings show that as of September 2020 the COVID-19 shock translates into a noticeable reduction in gross labor income across the entire income distribution. However, the tax benefit system and discretionary policy responses to the crisis act as important income stabilizers, since the effect on the distribution of disposable household incomes turns progressive: the bottom two deciles actually gain income, the middle deciles are hardly affected, and only the upper deciles lose income.

Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses

We discuss and review literature on the macroeconomic effects of epidemics and pandemics since the late 20th century. First, we cover the role of health in driving economic growth and well-being and discuss standard frameworks for assessing the economic burden of infectious diseases. Second, we sketch a general theoretical framework to evaluate the tradeoffs policymakers must consider when addressing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions.In so doing, we emphasize the dependence of economic consequences on (i) disease characteristics; (ii) inequalities among individuals in terms of susceptibility, preferences, and income; and (iii) cross-country heterogeneities in terms of their institutional and macroeconomic environments. Third, we study pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical policies aimed at mitigating and preventing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions. Fourth, we discuss the health toll and economic impacts of five infectious diseases:HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, influenza, and COVID-19. Although major epidemics and pandemics can take an enormous human toll and impose a staggering economic burden, early and targeted health and economic policy interventions can often mitigate both to a substantial degree.

Lessons for macroeconomic policy from the Global Financial Crisis

This paper proposes lessons for macroeconomic policy stemming from the monetary and fiscal responses to the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis, with an emphasis on Australia’s experience. After canvassing hitherto underemphasised global factors leading up to the crisis, including China’s rise and its effect on global saving, external imbalances and world interest rates, the paper critically evaluates the G20’s macroeconomic policy response to the crisis and its public debt legacy, especially for advanced economies. It then revisits Australia’s GFC performance, highlighting its macroeconomic behaviour at the time and the effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal responses. Lastly, it summarises what the episode implies for any future macroeconomic policy response to a crisis.