Macroeconomic Elements Research Articles

QUANTIFYING THE ECONOMIC SURVIVE ACROSS THE EU USING MARKOV PROBABILITY CHAINS

The multiple global crisis has made the economies of the world’s countries, including EU’s economy, vulnerable through the downgrading of the pandemic and the subsequent outbreak of geo-political conflict. These two events had the effect of decelerating the European economy and increasing the poverty level of the population, even that these developments are weaker than in rest of the world. The main objective of the present scientific approach is to identify a risk function based on Markov probability chains and to assess the possibilities of economic recovery through a package of policies structured over different time horizons. The used methods consist of meta-analysis, statistical analysis and geo-spatial and temporal modelling. The results of the study capture the integrated developments of risk-generating macroeconomic elements such as inflation, unemployment, public debt growth in a regionally segregated manner. These elements are useful for supranational decision-makers to increase the economic survival rate after multiple shocks through our proposed policy package.

The effect of macro variables on Indonesian stock exchanges in pandemic COVID-19

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial for stock traders inside a specific nation to conscientiously examine and assess the current monetary conditions and macroeconomic data. This study examined the influence of macroeconomic factors, namely unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates, on the Indonesian stock market index within the framework of the COVID-19 pandemic. This research employs quantitative approaches, notably autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis, to evaluate the dynamics of time series data. The current analysis shows that a variety of factors, such as inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates, have an impact on the stock price index. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that the deviation from the long-term equilibrium in the short term is rectified at a monthly rate of 33.47%. As a result of completing an exhaustive analysis of this study, it is of the utmost importance for the Indonesian government to concentrate its attention on the issues of unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and currency rates during the COVID-19 epidemic. This is done with the intention of achieving stability on the stock exchange. In addition, it is strongly suggested that investors do a comprehensive analysis of the volatility of stock prices by incorporating a variety of macroeconomic elements.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Tax Revenues of South African Countries

This research explores the macroeconomic elements that impact tax income in countries in South Africa. The study considers five countries: Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Zambia. Its primary objective is to identify key factors influencing tax revenue in these nations and examine their economic impact. Employing multivariate regression analysis, the research evaluates the impact of various macroeconomic indicators, including economic growth, inflation, foreign direct investment, and trade openness on tax revenues, using data from 1990 to 2021. Results indicate that economic growth and trade openness positively influence tax revenue, while inflation adversely affects it. The impact of foreign direct investment on tax revenue varies by country. These findings carry significant policy implications for South African nations, highlighting the importance of focusing on trade liberalization and economic growth to boost tax revenues, while also controlling inflation.

Macroeconomic Factors and Economic Development: An Insight into China Economy Using ARDL Approach

It is difficult to identify the factors that drive the macroeconomic growth of developing countries because of the social, infrastructural, and governance factors involved. To verify the existence of this connection, this study examines the macroeconomic variables that have influenced China's economy from 1979 to 2020, using data acquired from the world development indicators. Through the use of the ARDL bound model test, it is shown that China's economy is positively impacted by factors such as capital formation, government spending, foreign direct investment (FDI), exchange rate, human capital development, and trade openness over both the long and the short term. On the other hand, inflation has a detrimental impact on economic growth both in the long run and in the short run. Consequently, the real GDP per capita should be increased, human capital should be strengthened, trade should be reformed, and macroeconomic circumstances should be stabilized under fiscal and monetary policy. By enhancing human capital, and foreign direct investment, reforming government expenditures, and lowering inflation, China has the potential to achieve sustainable economic development. This study offers scholars and policymakers a fresh econometric examination of the primary macroeconomic elements that are contributing to the economy.

Ruang Lingkup Ekonomi dalam Perspektif Islam

The scope of Islamic Economics is essentially the same as the traditional financial scope that we have recognised thus far. however, there are some of variations in concepts that consist of, among others, the prohibition of usury, playing, and uncertainty in transactions. The simple philosophy of economics, both traditional and monetary in Islam, prohibits flowering of money. but, conventional economics then deviates in this regard. Islamic economics is built on the idea of Islam, consequently it is an crucial a part of the faith of Islam. Islamic economics follows Islamic faith in various factors, and is an embodiment of financial conduct based on Islamic teachings which incorporates a way to view financial troubles, analyze, and endorse alternative answers to numerous economic problems. Islamic monetary scope consists of its history, muamalah fiqh, social machine, fundamental policies( which include zakat, infaq, waqf, prohibiting maisir, gharar, and usury), including macroeconomic elements, authorities rules( regulator) in its development, and additionally the system recording( accounting) that ought to be used.

An examiner of China commercial banks loans through credit channel prior COVID-19

Purpose- China's economy has greatly developed in the last few decades, catapulting the nation to the second-biggest economy in the world. Financial growth took off over the last couple of decades because of the nation's expansion into the world economy and support for monetary policy. The purpose of this study is to analyse commercial bank-level data to examine a credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in emerging economies, such as China, from BRICS countries. Among the important questions that central banks, economists, and policymakers have raised in this area are: Does the impact of bank characteristics and macroeconomic variables affect the amount of loans in China? Do interacting bank characteristics and macroeconomic elements affect the amount of a loan in China? Methodology- Data analysis is achieved using static panel data with a random-effect model. 216 commercial banks in China were used as a sample, and the study was conducted from 2009 to 2018. The statistical software Stata is utilised for data analysis. Findings- According to findings from China's statistics, the capital ratio, GDP, inflation, and ROA interactions have a statistically significant but negative impact on the loan amount. The hypothesis is that capital ratio, total assets, and return on assets have a statistically significant and positive effect on the amount of the loan. The robust standard error coefficient showing a probable causal relationship between the variables was positive. Also,the results demonstrate that macroeconomic factors like interest rates, GDP, and inflation have a statistically insignificant positive impact on loan amounts. Hence, this study found enough evidence to accept the hypothesis that the loan amount had an insignificant effect. Conclusion- The authors contribute to the existing literature by identifying the key determinants of monetary policy transmission channels through credit in China and, furthermore, through a country-level data analysis and disaggregation at the commercial bank level, as well as economic conditions. Keywords: Panel Data, Banks, Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism, Credit Channel, China economy. JEL Codes: C23; E51; E52

The Relationship between the Budgetary Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Indicators, a Comparative Study of Germany-France versus Romania-Bulgaria

Abstract Fiscal-budgetary policy in the current economic context is a challenge for all EU27 governments. The literature, although consistent on this topic, still does not provide sufficient modeling-based solutions for decision-makers. The objectives of the study are to identify relevant indicators for fiscal-budgetary policy analysis, to build a related statistical database, to conceptualize a fiscal-budgetary policy efficiency model, to test and validate this model and the working hypotheses, to formulate relevant conclusions on the influence of macroeconomic indicators on fiscal-budgetary policy elements and to establish a ranking of fiscal-budgetary efficiency at the level of the four Member States in the European context. As a result, our scientific approach becomes necessary and is based on econometric research on the correlations between fiscal-budgetary policy elements and the evolution of macroeconomic indicators. The main results of the study are the conceptualization of the regional model of correlation between budgetary fiscal policy and macro indicators and the identification of the differentiated influences of macroeconomic elements on the fiscal-budgetary policy according to the level of development of the Member States. The results are useful for supranational decision-makers in setting medium- and long-term fiscal and budgetary policy measures, as well as for economic entities that can adjust their macroeconomic risk behavior and future economic development strategies based on this information.

Nexus among financial innovation, natural resources and economic recovery: A fresh empirical insight from China

The relationship between natural resources, technological innovation and economic development has been debated. Macroeconomic elements like green development and technological may be crucial in attaining ecological sustainability in the context of eco-innovation since climate change is the main issue of contemporary research. As a result, this research uses data from 2000 to 2020 to evaluate the dynamic relationship between natural resources, financial innovation, and economic progress in China. We used the ARDL model to confirm the long-term, consistent relationship between ecological sustainability and natural resources and technological advancements. However, there is evidence that natural resource interaction positively influences economic development. Based on empirical findings, we recommend innovative methods of development together with effective management techniques for the productive utilization of natural resources for sustainable management.

Implications of macroeconomic risks on NHFC'S incremental housing finance in South Africa

PurposeThe challenge of accessibility to adequate housing in several countries by a large percentage of citizens has given rise to different housing programs designed to facilitate access to affordable housing. In South Africa, the National Housing Finance Corporation (NHFC) was created to provides housing loans to low- and middle-income earners. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the implication of the macroeconomic risk elements on the performance of the NHFC incremental housing finance.Design/methodology/approachThis study used a mixed-method approach to examine the time-series data of the NHFC over 17 years (2003–2020), relative to selected macroeconomic indicators. Additionally, this study analysed primary data from a 2022 survey of NHFC Executives.FindingsThis study found that incremental housing finance addresses a housing affordability gap, caters to disadvantaged groups, adapts to changing macroeconomic conditions and can mitigate default risk. It also finds that the performance of the NHFC’s incremental housing finance is premised on the behaviour of the macroeconomic elements that drive its strategy in South Africa.Originality/valueUnlike previous works on housing finance, this case study of the NHFC considers the implication of macroeconomic trends when disbursing incremental housing finance to low- and middle-level income earners as a risk mitigation measure for the South African market. Its mixed method use of quantitative and qualitative data also allows a robust insight into trends that drive investment in incremental housing finance in South Africa.

Economic growth and its relationship with the macroeconomic factors: An analysis of Oman

This study determines Oman’s most important macroeconomic factors between 1990 and 2019. The ARDL bound test findings for co-integration show that both long and short runs exist. The error-correcting mechanism further states that when the divergence from long-run equilibrium is rectified at an adaptation speed of 78.9%, it signals an inversion to a long-run stable state. In response to a change in the previous year’s economic growth, the final consumption expenditure indicates a rise of 0.472; the gross fixed capital formation and export indicate hikes of 0.149 and 0.358 at a 1% significance level. Additionally, the findings of co-integration regression using fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), and canonical co-integration regression (CCR) were used to strengthen and validate the results that export ranks first in Oman, followed by final consumption spending. Therefore, export, gross fixed capital formation, and final consumption expenditure are vital macroeconomic elements supporting Oman’s economic development.

A Novel Integrated PCA-DEA-IMF SWARA-CRADIS Model for Evaluating the Impact of FDI on the Sustainability of the Economic System

Today’s economic systems are, on the one hand, exposed to various risks and uncertainties with their trends changing almost daily, while on the other hand, they represent an extremely complex system with a large number of sustainable influential parameters. The challenge is to model macroeconomic parameters and achieve sustainability, yet also satisfy conflict situations with an increased level of uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to create an appropriate functional model by examining the mutual influence of various macroeconomic factors. It assesses a total of four scenarios considering mutual influences of: FDI (foreign direct investments), GDP (gross domestic product), imports, exports, inflation rate, RER (real exchange rate) and employment rate as defined parameters. First, the DEA (Data envelopment analysis) model was applied to determine the initial efficiency of two countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) and Serbia, for the period 2005–2020. Then, PCA (Principal Component Analysis) was applied in combination with DEA to obtain more precise values. In addition, IMF SWARA (Improved Fuzzy Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis) was applied to define weight coefficients of macro-economic parameters. Finally, the CRADIS (compromise ranking of alternatives from distance to ideal solution) model was applied for the final ranking of part of decision-making units. This developed, integrated model can be classified as a mathematical method for economic analysis and gives extended opportunities for solving different problems. The results show that 2009, 2013 and 2016 were the most favorable years in terms of the conditions set when it comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina, and 2012, 2014 and 2016 when it comes to Serbia. These years have been singled out and can be a benchmark for further handling and modeling of macroeconomic elements. In addition, correlation was tested using statistical coefficients.

The Conceptual Framework of Economic Cooperation and Integration between OIC: Empirical Evidence on Effects of Trade on Cooperation and Integration

Objective - This study aims to illustrate the conceptual framework of economic cooperation and integration between OIC countries. It also highlighted on Economic cooperation and integration theory. Methodology - This paper follows descriptive analysis approach to describe the conceptual framework of cooperation and integration between OIC countries. This paper describes the conceptual framework of economic cooperation and integration between OIC. Itexplores the channels through which trade can contribute to cooperation and integration. This study highlighted the cooperation between OIC in the light of economic integration theory. Findings - The results of this study discover the dynamic relationship between trade balance and macroeconomic elements. Novelty - This study also explains the empirical evidence on effects of trade on cooperation and integration. The study recommended to compare the results with European Union to understand the effects of trade on cooperation and integration between OIC countries. Type of Paper - Literature. Keywords: Economic Cooperation, Economic integration theory, Trade Balance and Macroeconomic Elements.

FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS IN CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Free cross-border movement of goods and capital correlates with the general economic state of a country in both apparent and subtle ways. The intensity of financial and economic interactions with the outside world is an indicator of the sustainability and efficiency of the national economy.After joining the EU, all Member States liberalized the balance of payments (BoP), i.e. ensured free and unrestricted cross-border movement of goods and capital. For certain countries the liberalization of BoP was a considerable challenge, which they managed to successfully overcome. These were the EU countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) was active among the former socialist countries until 1990, or the so-called "CMEA-EU countries".For an economic comparison to be plausible, it has to be made between the dynamics of comparable economies. Such a group of economies is formed by the CMEA-EU countries. EU membership provided them with the opportunity to use on their own their potential in property, intellect, power and resources. This is the reason why the present study has adopted a comparative analysis based on CMEA-EU countries.An attempt has been made to comprehensively monitor and analytically assess all major financial flows, especially in the CMEA-EU countries, and their impact on economic dynamics. A comparison is made for both the positive and negative aspects of the incoming financial resources in these countries. Particular emphasis is placed on macroeconomic elements and policies that outline, create conditions, and predetermine the scale, interactions and projections of cross-border financial flows.

The Conceptual Framework of Economic Cooperation and Integration between Oic: Emperical Evidence on Effects of Trade on Cooperation and Integration

This study aims to illustrates the conceptual framework of economic cooperation and integration between OIC countries. This paper follows descriptive analysis approach to describe the conceptual framework of cooperation and integration between OIC countries. This paper describes the conceptual framework of economic cooperation and integration between OIC. It explores the channels through which trade can contribute to cooperation and integration. This study highlighted the cooperation between OIC in the light of economic integration theory. The results of this study discovers the dynamic relationship between trade balance and macroeconomic elements. This study also explains the empirical evidence on effects of trade on cooperation and integration. Keywords: Economic Cooperation, Economic integration theory, Trade Balance and Macroeconomic Elements.

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on crowdfunding success

This study provides the first investigation into how reward-based crowdfunding is influenced by economic policy uncertainty (EPU), one of the most important macroeconomic factors today. Strikingly, EPU is found to be positively linked to crowdfunding success and the crowdfunding market, in completely contrast to most financial activities, which are adversely affected by EPU. We further examine what, and how, factors may alter the relation between the EPU index and crowdfunding. We also conduct an analysis on the aggregate demand for crowdfunding, showing that more projects and larger amounts of capital are launched and requested when EPU is high. Overall, our research documents the significance of macroeconomic elements as predictors of crowdfunding success.

Risk Management Under Impacts of Macro Economic Factors Ina Big Seafood Ex-Import Firm -Angiang Fisheries Ex-Import Jsc. In Vietnam

AnGiang Fisheries Ex-Import Joint Stock Company (AGF) was established in 2001. Agifish has traditionally beena leader in the fields of production and business activities, scientific research in the field of fingerling production, seafood processing technology and the development of value added products processed from Basa fish, tra fish. Agifish cares about buildinga spirit of solidarity between leaders, managers and workers striving for the development of the Company. Because we figure out there isa research gap in which many previous studies forgot to explore both internal and external macroeconomic elements and their impacts on stock price of Agifish (AGF),a big Vietnam fisheries firm, in the context Viet Nam and the US economies receive impacts from global economic crisis. With the using of quantitative analysis and statistics, regression OLS, together with qualitative methods including synthesis, comparison and explanatory methods, authors recognize that, ina six factor model, AGF stock price goes up together with effects from increase in GDP growth and lending rate declines. Last but not least, our research model can be expanded to other markets.

THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND INTEGRATION BETWEEN OIC: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON EFFECTS OF TRADE ON COOPERATION AND INTEGRATION

This study aims to illustrates the conceptual framework of economic cooperation and integration between OIC countries. This paper follows descriptive analysis approach to describe the conceptual framework of cooperation and integration between OIC countries. This paper describes the conceptual framework of economic cooperation and integration between OIC. It explores the channels through which trade can contribute to cooperation and integration. This study highlighted the cooperation between OIC in the light of economic integration theory. The results of this study discovers the dynamic relationship between trade balance and macroeconomic elements. This study also explains the empirical evidence on effects of trade on cooperation and integration. The study recommended to compare the results with European union to understand the effects of trade on cooperation and integration between OIC countries.

New Technologies and Innovative Solutions in the Development Strategies of Energy Enterprises

Energy companies face challenges arising from the ecological, social and legal environment. The reduction of negative impact on the environment and society while maintaining sustainable development affects the formation of new development strategies and push to introduce the state of art innovative technologies. The main aim of the research is to analyze the importance and role of the adaptation strategy to external requirements and to determine the mechanisms of the occurrence of passive and active adaptation. As a new approach to carrying out strategic analysis, two models were used simultaneously (inductive and hypothetical-deductive) which allows for realization qualitative (interviews, observations) and quantitative (statistical analysis) research methods generally called mixed methods. The study was conducted on the basis of mixed-method analysis of adaptations strategies of enterprises from the energy sector. The results of the conducted research show the influence of particular macroeconomic elements (e.g. technologies, ecologies) on making strategic decisions. The issue of adapting an enterprise to its environment is also related to its involvement in the research and development (R&D) sphere. Depending on the size of the company there are different amounts dedicated to R&D. Regulations and the technological environment force innovations of energy companies in the direction of reducing harmful impact on the environment and society. Legal and political factors (both national and EU) determine the activities of power companies (in each group: small, medium and large) and determine the choice of adaptation strategies. The intensity of adaptation to the requirements of the environment changes depends on the size of the company. Power companies apply passive adaptation strategies and as they increase their position on the market, they begin to implement an active adaptation strategy.

ЯКОЮ МІРОЮ ВИМОГИ СТАЛОГО РОЗВИТКУ ІНТЕГРОВАНІ В РУМУНСЬКУ МОДЕЛЬ БУХГАЛТЕРСЬКОГО ОБЛІКУ?

This paper aims at establishing the elements of sustainable development in the accounting of the economic entities. Emphasis is placed on the principles of sustainable development both in the national context and in the European space. The entities’ approach to integrating the requirements of sustainable growth into the accounting model has long been debated since the consumed natural resources are not to be found distinctly in the accounting records of the entity. The debate on this topic is carried out through specific instruments in the form of sustainable development indicators. Thus, in this paper, macroeconomic elements are promoted and, through their compositions, they integrate as many elements of the sustainable development into the accounting model and they are the most appropriate to meet the requirements of the development.

What are the bank specific and macroeconomic elements influence non-performing loans in Bangladesh? Evidence from conventional and Islamic banks

Policymakers are usually getting worried due to the continuous increases in non-performing loans,and the situation is expected to worsen in this era of COVID-19 pandemic. It is well established that NPL is one of the key indicators of the success and stability of the banking sector. However,very little attention has been paid regarding this issue in an emerging county like Bangladesh. Therefore,the purpose of this study is to examine and evaluate the factors influencing the non-performing loans (NPLs) of conventional and Islamic banks. We performed the analysis by employing annual panel dataset of top twenty-six conventional banks and four Islamic banks in Bangladesh over the period 2014 to 2018. The Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach is employed to investigate the impact of credit growth,loans to deposit ratio,capitalization,inefficiency,size,diversification and economic growth on non-performing loans (NPLs). The empirical results reveal strong evidence that inefficiency has a significantly positive effect on NPLs,whereas loan to deposit ratio has a negative effect on NPLs. The results suggest policymakers need to lessen bank inefficiency with a view of reducing NPL,which ultimately will enrich shareholder's value.