Macroeconomic Effects Of Fiscal Policy Research Articles

Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy during the Covid-19 Crisis: Evidence from Bolivia at a Regional Level

This paper evaluates the impact of the fiscal policy applied in Bolivia during the Covid-19 crisis at a regional level. It includes two analyses: the economic slowdown at a regional level analyzed through a mixed frequency Bayesian var with a stochastic volatility model, and the impact and effectiveness of the fiscal policy using a time-varying parameter var model. The results indicate that the pandemic had a heterogeneous effect on the region’s economic activity and the capital expenditure from the national treasury was the most effective fiscal policy to reduce the recessive effects of the crisis. We also noted that some regions positively reacted to regional and local government capital expenditure.

Tax evasion, fiscal policy and public debt: Evidence from Spain

We reconsider the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with limited tax enforcement. The results of the Bayesian estimation provide evidence in favor of a sizeable underground sector in Spain, with the associated tax evasion having contributed, on average, to 23% of public debt accumulation over the period 1985–2015. From the standpoint of fiscal policy, the estimated results show that the presence of tax evasion triggers a resource-reallocation mechanism that dampens the effects on economic activity caused by an increase in government spending, while it amplifies those due to changes in tax rates. Because of this mechanism, we show that tax-based consolidation plans may become completely ineffective in reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio if tax enforcement is imperfect. Moreover, by characterizing the long-run Laffer curve, we show that the actual taxation in Spain is inefficiently too high, in the sense that the government might increase tax revenues by cutting the actual tax rates on both corporate and personal income.

The dynamic effects of fiscal policy and fiscal multipliers in Tunisia

ABSTRACT This study analyses the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy by estimating fiscal multipliers for Tunisia. The study is based on the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model and uses quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q4. Five main insights can be drawn from these results. First, fiscal multipliers are moderate, as suggested by earlier studies. Second, spending multipliers generated by total and consumption expenditures, respectively, are small, implying that government spending generates substantial crowding out effects. Third, investment multipliers are larger than consumption multipliers. Fourth, fiscal multipliers have declined in the post-2011 revolution period, suggesting that spending multipliers are lower during times of recession. Fifth, domestic supply shocks could shape the effects of fiscal policy and cause spending multipliers to fall.

Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use quarterly US data from 1960 to 2017 and employ the Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) to compute nonlinear generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs) to an orthogonalized government spending shock during tranquil and in uncertain times. The parsimonious design of the SEIVAR enables us to focus on extreme deciles of the uncertainty distribution and to control for the financing side of the government budget, monetary policy, financial frictions and consumer confidence.FindingsFiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times, but is contractionary during times of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. The results indicate an important role of the endogenous response of macroeconomic uncertainty. Investigating different government spending purposes, only increases in research and development expenditures reduce uncertainty and boost output during uncertain times.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to the literature in using a method which allows to control for a large set of confounding factors and accounts for the uncertainty response.

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Pakistan: a disaggregate analysis

ABSTRACTThis study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The study utilizes VAR framework and uses quarterly data of Pakistan from 1976Q1 to 2017Q4. The results showed that after an increase in government expenditures, private consumption and prices take three quarters to increase, while private investment follows the declining trend. Private consumption and interest rate are negatively related with taxes, while private investment and prices are positively related with taxes. Real GDP, private consumption and interest rate respond positively with an increase in developmental expenditure, public consumption and public investment. Private investment is negatively related with development expenditure, public consumption and public investment. An increase in direct tax as well as indirect tax leads to an increase in real GDP, private investment and interest rate, while private consumption takes three to five quarters to responds. Private investment and prices are positively related with non-tax revenue, while real GDP, private consumption and interest rate are negatively related. These results support the Keynesian view that government expenditure and taxes are useful tools to stimulate the economic activity, while crowding-out hypothesis holds in Pakistan as well. An active and efficient role of government is required for macroeconomic stability.

What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers

AbstractThis article discusses recent research on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy—the theme of the 2018 edition of the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meeting. We review recent research findings on the effects of fiscal multipliers in normal times, during booms/busts, and in the presence of the zero lower bound. Studies on the effects of fiscal policy in open economy settings as well as contributions on the fiscal‐monetary policy mix are also considered. We conclude by outlining a few research avenues that are particularly relevant from a policy standpoint.

What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers

This article reviews recent research findings on the effects of fiscal multipliers in normal times, during booms/busts, and in the presence of the zero lower bound. Studies on the effects of fiscal policy in open economy settings as well as contributions on the fiscal-monetary policy mix are also considered. We conclude by outlining a few research avenues that are particularly relevant from a policy standpoint.

What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers

What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers

Tax Elasticities and the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Greece

Abstract In this paper I explore the effects of fiscal policy, in particular of both spending and taxes, on the Greek GDP, in the form of multipliers of GDP to a shock on the relevant fiscal instrument. A novel feature of this paper is that I try to estimate the effects of particular spending and tax components on GDP. I use Structural Vector Autoregression models and contemporaneous restrictions to identify fiscal shocks. A methodological difference with traditional SVARs is that I try to estimate the elasticities of the different taxes to GDP using the transitory components of the relevant time series. The results indicate that the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal instruments vary a lot, but spending on average has a higher multiplier than taxes, while personal income tax and fuel tax have the worst impact on the economy. JEL classifications: C32, E62, H2 Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Government Spending, Taxes, Macroeconomics, Structural Vector Autoregressions

Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Morocco: An Approach to Structural VAR

This article evaluates the short-term macroeconomic effectiveness of a structural rise in public spending in Morocco through a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR) inspired by the approach of Blanchard and Perotti (2002).The response of the real economic activity following a structural rise of the public spending is small and significant only in the very short term. The evaluation of transmission channels reveals, moreover, a deterioration of the trade balance and a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Finally, the results of the estimation concluded that discretionary fiscal shocks have a Keynesian effect on the level of activity.

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries

This study empirically investigates the short- to medium-term effects of fiscal policy on output and other macroeconomic variables in European Union countries between 1995 and 2012, with particular reference to transition countries. It applies Panel Vector Auto Regression with recursive identification of government spending shocks as the most appropriate method for the aim of the study and the sample used. The main results indicate that expansionary spending shocks have a positive, but a relatively low effect on output, with the fiscal multiplier around one in the year of the shock and the following year, and lower thereinafter. There are indications that this result is driven by the recent crisis, as multipliers are considerably lower in the pre-crisis period. Effects of fiscal policy are strongly dependent on country structural characteristics. Fiscal multipliers are higher in new European Union member states, in countries with low public debt and low trade openness. Further, spending shocks are followed by rising debt levels in old member states, which could be related well to the recent European debt crisis. Finally, the analysis of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy yields results that are consistent with both extended Real Business Cycle models and extended New Keynesian models.

Noisy fiscal policy

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a setting in which private agents receive noisy signals about future shocks to government expenditures. We show how to empirically identify the relative weight of news and noise shocks to government spending and compute the level of noise for Canada, the UK and the US. We then investigate the quantitative implications of imperfect fiscal policy information using a medium-scale DSGE model. We find that when the government seeks to implement a persistent change in expected public spending, the existence of noise (as estimated using actual data) implies a sizable difference in fiscal multipliers compared to the perfect fiscal foresight case.

State-dependent effects of fiscal policy in Japan: Do rule-of-thumb households increase the effects of fiscal policy?

This study empirically investigates whether macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are affected by the existence of rule-of-thumb households in Japan. Motivated by existing theoretical formulations, we estimate a consumption function as extended to a Markov switching model and divide the sample period into two parts depending on the share of rule-of-thumb (ROT) households. Subsequently, we estimate a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to investigate the effects of two types of fiscal policy shock: unanticipated and anticipated. The results are subjected to robustness checks and reveal that the share of ROT households rises after large negative shocks (i.e., oil shock, economic bubble burst, Lehman shock), and then (unanticipated) fiscal policy shock stimulates private consumption more effectively in the high ROT households’ period.

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints

This article investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in New Zealand using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The model is the five‐variable SVAR framework proposed by Perotti (2005), further augmented to allow for the possibility that taxes, spending and interest rates might respond to the level of the debt over time. We examine the dynamic responses of output, inflation and the interest rate to changes in government spending and revenues and analyse the contribution of shocks to New Zealand's business cycle for the period 1983:1–2010:2. We find that the effects of government expenditure shocks in New Zealand appear to be positive but small in the short run at the cost of higher interest rates and lower output in the medium to long run. The sign of the effects of tax policy changes are less clear‐cut, but again the effects on GDP appear similarly modest. Past fiscal policy is analysed through a historical decomposition of the shocks in the model. This suggests that discretionary fiscal policy has had a generally pro‐cyclical impact on GDP over the past 15 years, and a material impact on the real long‐term interest rate. A fiscal expansion has a positive but limited impact on inflation.

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union: a GVAR model

What are the consequences of a fiscal policy measure implemented in a Member State on the rest of the European Union (EU)? Should or should not EU countries coordinate their fiscal policies? Given this starting point, we study the economic consequences of shocks to fiscal variables in the EU countries from both domestic and global perspectives. With that objective in mind, we specify and estimate a global vector autoregressive model (GVAR) for fourteen countries of the former EU15 and the United States (USA), using quarterly macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal data from 1978 to 2009. Unlike other GVAR models with fiscal variables, in our study we consider total public receipts and total public expenditure separately, and model not only the euro area economies but also all countries of the former EU15 (except Luxembourg) and the USA. The results of our simulations show that the responses of real GDP to a negative (positive) domestic/global shock to total public expenditure (total public receipts) seem to be negative (positive) for the analyzed economies. The effects of domestic shocks would be larger in the country of origin of the shock, while their spillover effects would be limited. The effects of global shocks reveal a remarkable degree of similarity in the cyclical behavior of the European economies. As policy recommendations, we suggest boosting the slow process of coordination of fiscal actions in the EU in order to avoid unwanted economic consequences.

The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints

This article investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in New Zealand using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The model is the five‐variable SVAR framework proposed by Perotti (2005), further augmented to allow for the possibility that taxes, spending and interest rates might respond to the level of the debt over time. We examine the dynamic responses of output, inflation and the interest rate to changes in government spending and revenues and analyse the contribution of shocks to New Zealand's business cycle for the period 1983:1–2010:2. We find that the effects of government expenditure shocks in New Zealand appear to be positive but small in the short run at the cost of higher interest rates and lower output in the medium to long run. The sign of the effects of tax policy changes are less clear‐cut, but again the effects on GDP appear similarly modest. Past fiscal policy is analysed through a historical decomposition of the shocks in the model. This suggests that discretionary fiscal policy has had a generally pro‐cyclical impact on GDP over the past 15 years, and a material impact on the real long‐term interest rate. A fiscal expansion has a positive but limited impact on inflation.

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a stochastically growing economy

This paper develops a stochastic model of endogenous growth with productive government expenditure. Herein, we specify the CES production function according to recent empirical evidence. The elasticity of substitution plays a key role in determining macroeconomic performance and the effectiveness of fiscal policy under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that a large elasticity of substitution provides a large expected growth rate and also large volatility of the growth rate. Regarding these effects, the growth-maximizing tax rate and welfare-maximizing tax rate under uncertainty are larger or smaller than those of deterministic economy according to the elasticity of substitution.

Impact of fiscal policy in an intertemporal CGE model for South Africa

This paper uses an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model to investigate the consequences of an expansive fiscal policy designed to accelerate economic growth in South Africa. A key contribution is made to existing literature on the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in African economies. To the best of our knowledge, no published study has empirically analyzed the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the context of an open, middle-income sub-Saharan African economy like South Africa using an integrated intertemporal model with such disaggregated production structure. The paper shows that an expansive fiscal policy would have a temporary impact on gross domestic product (GDP) but would translate into higher debt relative to GDP. Using increased taxation to finance the additional spending would lessen this impact but would also negatively affect macroeconomic variables. Increased investment spending would improve long-term GDP, under any financing scheme, and would decrease debt-to-GDP ratio as well as deficit-to-GDP ratio. This outcome is driven by the positive impact infrastructure has on total factor productivity. Sensitivity analysis shows that these conclusions are qualitatively similar for wide values of the elasticity of the total factor productivity to infrastructure. In fact, the conclusions hold even when comparing different financing schemes.

Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy

We explore the underlying determinants of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and tax and social security reform using the IMF’s Global Fiscal Model (GFM). We show that the planning horizon of consumers, access to financial markets, and the elasticity of labor supply, as well as the characteristics of utility and production functions, and the degree of competition are all critical for determining the impact of fiscal policy. Four topical fiscal policy issues, for a representative large and small economy, are examined: the effects of changes in government debt, higher government spending, tax reform, and privatization of retirement savings.

Government Spending Shocks and the Multiplier: New Evidence from the U.S. Based on Natural Disasters

The literature on estimating macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy requires suitable instruments to identify exogenous and unanticipated spending shocks. So far, the instrument of choice has been military build-ups. This instrument, however, largely limits the analysis to the US as few other countries have been involved in mainly extraterritorial conflicts. Moreover, the expenditure associated with military build-ups affects primarily the defense sector so that the resulting multiplier does not necessarily approximate the effects of changes to general government spending. We propose an alternative instrument: government relief expenditure in the wake of natural disasters which is more similar in its scope to general government spending. We construct a rich data set of natural disasters and the corresponding government responses at the US state level. We apply this methodology both at the state as well as national levels and show that natural disasters serve as a powerful instrument for identifying government spending shocks. Furthermore, we show that the multiplier pertaining to non-defense government spending is higher than the defense-spending multiplier estimated in the literature using military build-ups.