Macroeconometric Modelling Research Articles

Import Tariff Reduction and Fiscal Sustainability: A Macro-Econometric Modelling for Ethiopia

The main objective of this study is to examine the dynamic impact of import tariff reduction on major macroeconomic variables and its long-run implications for the fiscal sustainability of Ethiopia. In addition, it estimates the increase in the average consumption tax required to compensate for the possible tax revenue loss and fiscal sustainability. A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (RDCGEM) is used to assess the dynamic impact on macroeconomic variables of import tariff reduction and examine the increased consumption tax required. The study is novel as there are no studies in general, and for Ethiopia in particular in this regard. We use the available 2013/2014 base year macroeconomic data from national income accounts, fiscal accounts, and balance of payments accounts of Ethiopia. The RDCGEM is calibrated to the base year data, checked for correctness, and tested for robustness using sensitivity analysis. The model then is simulated for the import tariff reduction under the base case and under various tariff reduction scenarios based on which the macroeconomic impacts of tariff reduction are analyzed. Based on the RDCGM outputs, the fiscal sustainability impact of import tariff reduction is verified, and using a cointegration method, we examine the sustainability of fiscal policy. The results suggest a 95 percent import tariff reduction that negatively impacts the major macroeconomic variables. It also leads to long-term fiscal unsustainability. The joint reform of the country has relatively better impacts on major macroeconomic variables but slightly negative effects on household income and consumption.

The Science and Art of Communicating Fan Chart Uncertainty: The Case of Inflation Outcome in Sierra Leone

The use of macro-econometric modelling technique has become a norm for policy decisions in central banks and in particular, the Bank of Sierra Leone. This study has leveraged on the technicalities of scientific and artistic approaches of assessing risks around point / baseline forecast; this in general makes it more convincing for probability confidence bands to be used in explaining uncertainty that surround point forecast in particular. In the case of this study, the use of the Box-Jenkins ARIMAX model has made it possible to highlight the relevance of Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) like Exchange Rate in alerting signals about early turning point of inflation outcome, both in terms of the uncertainty and risks surrounding its projections. With the derived (scientific) probability distribution of risks (30%, 60% and 90%), it was possible for the study outcome to unearth vast amount of information from the Inflation Fan Chart, particularly with respect to the art of providing balanced assessment of policy framework needed to communicate the BSL’s price stability objective. While the use of Fan Chart is hailed as a very relevant tool, the paper also recommend the use of other model approaches like Scenario and Sensitivity analysis, also considered relevant in providing leading evidence of balancing risks surrounding macroeconomic outlook.

The Science and Art of Communicating Fan Chart Uncertainty: The case of Inflation Outcome in Sierra Leone

The use of macro-econometric modelling technique has become a norm for policy decisions in central banks and in particular, the Bank of Sierra Leone. This study has leveraged on the technicalities of scientific and artistic approaches of assessing risks around point / baseline forecast; this in general makes it more convincing for probability confidence bands to be used in explaining uncertainty that surround point forecast in particular. In the case of this study, the use of the Box-Jenkins ARIMAX model has made it possible to highlight the relevance of Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) like Exchange Rate in alerting signals about early turning point of inflation outcome, both in terms of the uncertainty and risks surrounding its projections. With the derived (scientific) probability distribution of risks (30%, 60% and 90%), it was possible for the study outcome to unearth vast amount of information from the Inflation Fan Chart, particularly with respect to the art of providing balanced assessment of policy framework needed to communicate the BSL’s price stability objective. While the use of Fan Chart is hailed as a very relevant tool, the paper also recommend the use of other model approaches like Scenario and Sensitivity analysis, also considered relevant in providing leading evidence of balancing risks surrounding macroeconomic outlook.

The public-private investment nexus in India: Evidence from a policy simulation approach

This study investigates the influence of public investment on private investment in India, at both the aggregate and Sectoral levels and under two different modes of deficit financing - monetisation and commercial borrowing - in an eclectic macroeconometric modelling framework. Using Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), the two simulation exercises conducted in the study highlight the crowdingin effect of public investment on aggregate private investment, irrespective of the mode of financing. The favourable accelerator effect and the complementary effect are found to outweigh the deleterious interest effect in both simulation exercises. At the Sectoral level, public investment is found to most strongly and positively affect private investment in manufacturing, followed by agriculture, the service sector, and finally infrastructure. The impact of public investment on the other sectors included in the model accords well with theoretical expectations.

European Economics and the Early Years of the 'International Seminar on Macroeconomics'

The International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISoM) is an annual conference, which was co-sponsored, during 15 years (1978-1993) by the French EHESS and the NBER. This article uncovers the scientific and institutional dynamics unrolling from this cooperation. The ISoM, we argue, constituted a decisive step towards the making of a European network of economists, sharing a distinctive style of economics, insofar that the Seminar gathered macroeconomists who were leading the development of this European network. We illustrate how the ISoM stands at the crossroad of two types of ‘internationalisation’ of economics: on the one hand, the integration of European national communities; on the other hand, the process of ‘Americanisation’ of economics. While existing literature on ‘internationalisation’ focuses on the national level, our contribution investigates its European level. Moreover, we unveils the key role played in this process by macroeconomics — and more specifically, large-scale macroeconometric modelling on the one hand, and the disequilibrium theory on the other hand. These two approaches provided a common research agenda and shared scientific standards for the emerging network.

Production Sectors and Regions in Macroeconometric Models of India

The macroeconometric modelling for India has its focus on providing estimates of macroeconomic parameters at the national level. These models have attempted to capture some of the variations across production sectors and the differences in market and non-market agents. However, the macroeconometric modelling effort so far has not captured the regional dimension of the economy. This paper notes that while there are commonalities in growth pattern across states exhibited by the co-integration of state domestic product in many pairs of states, there are also cases where the commonality is absent. We highlight the need for reflecting a regional dimension in the macroeconometric models either through satellite models or integration with the national models.

The Cowles Commission and Foundation for Research in Economics

Founded in 1932 by a newspaper heir disillusioned by the failure of forecasters to predict the Great Crash, the Cowles Commission promoted the use of formal mathematical and statistical methods in economics, initially through summer research conferences in Colorado and through support of the Econometric Society (of which Alfred Cowles was secretary-treasurer for decades). After moving to the University of Chicago in 1939, the Cowles Commission sponsored works, many later honored with Nobel Prizes but at the time out of the mainstream of economics, by Haavelmo, Hurwicz and Koopmans on econometrics, Arrow and Debreu on general equilibrium, Yntema and Mosak on general equilibrium in international trade theory, Arrow on social choice, Koopmans on activity analysis, Klein on macroeconometric modelling, Lange, Marschak and Patinkin on macroeconomic theory, and Markowitz on portfolio choice, but came into intense methodological, ideological and personal conflict with the emerging “Chicago school.” This conflict led the Cowles Commission to move to Yale in 1955 as the Cowles Foundation, directed by James Tobin (who had declined to move to Chicago to direct it). The Cowles Foundation remained a leader in the more technical areas of economics, notably with Tobin’s “Yale school” of monetary theory, Scarf’s computable general equilibrium, Shubik in game theory, and later Phillips and Andrews in econometric theory but as formal methods in economic theory and econometrics pervaded the discipline of economics, Cowles (like the Econometric Society) became less distinct from the rest of economics. This entry is part of an archivally-based history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation commissioned by the Cowles Foundation.

Measuring the permanent costs of Brexit

We analyse the costs of Brexit. The results show that by 2030 a hard Brexit would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 18 percentage points compared to a situation where the UK continued its EU membership. The economic damage in our FTA and soft Brexit scenarios is less severe than in our hard Brexit scenario, although it will still cost the UK economy roughly 12.5 percentage points and 10 percentage points of cumulative GDP growth by 2030, respectively. We find much larger negative effects than most existing studies that use macroeconometric modelling to assess the effects of Brexit. This is due to two reasons. First, we use an improved tariff version of the macroeconometric model NiGEM, which enables us better to assess the negative impact of cost-push inflation resulting from imposed trade barriers. Second, we estimate a new productivity model for the UK, which allows us to gauge adequately the negative UK-specific effects on productivity caused by Brexit.

Makroekonomski efekti monetarne transmisije u Srbiji - SVAR pristup

Evaluations of the effects of transmission mechanisms in monetary policy are one of the essential macroeconomic issues. The main objective of this article is to examine the effects monetary policy has on the overall economic activity and prices in the Republic of Serbia by using the appropriate theoretical, methodological and empirical frame. Macroeconometric modelling has been carried out by means of the non-recursive SVAR model. The time period ranging from M01 2007 - M12 2015 has been selected as a suitable timeframe. The study has shown that the exchange rate is the most important channel of monetary transmission in Serbia. Also, the study has revealed that the movements and fluctuations in output are highly influenced by money supply. Policy makers should bear in mind the limited impact of exchange rates in the long run. Also, monetary authorities should pay special attention to the interest rate channel, as the main instrument of monetary policy, which has little influence due to the high rate of euroisation of the national economy.

Lawrence R. Klein 1920-2013: Notes on the Early Years

Lawrence R. Klein can well be said to have created the field of macroeconometric modelling and his international influence started at an early stage. The article offers scattered observations on Klein’s early years from undergraduate study to the University of Pennsylvania in 1958. Klein was in 1944 hired by the Cowles Commission in Chicago to construct the first macroeconomic models in the USA, drawing on the experiences of the interwar modeling work of Jan Tinbergen and the new path-breaking econometric methods developed by Trygve Haavelmo. The first Klein model was taken into use at the end of 1945 to shed light on the prospect for the US economy in the transition from war to peace. After three years in Chicago, Klein travelled for a year in Europe and initiated macroeconometric modeling work in Canada, the University of Michigan, and Oxford University. This was only the beginning of the lifelong influence Klein exerted on modelers around the globe. The article pays attention to Klein’s relations with Paul Samuelson, Jacob Marschak, Trygve Haavelmo, Ragnar Frisch, and others.

Three Centuries of Macro-Economic Statistics

This paper describes the history of the national accounts starting from the incidental estimates by Petty, King and Davenant in the seventeenth century. The period 1930-1950 was a revolution in terms of the roles and uses of the national accounts, e.g. the discovery of input-output analysis, purchasing power parities and macro-econometric modelling and the Keynesian revolution in economic thinking. Most of these new uses also reinforced each other. These uses were also closely linked to the economic circumstances: the economic crisis of the thirties, the Second World War and the need for recovery afterwards stimulated an active role of the government. In 1947, for the first time a report on national accounting concepts was published by the UN. Some years later, the first official guidelines were published. Since then, national accounting theory and practice have increasingly been dominated by these guidelines. The period since the Second World War can thus best be labelled as 'the era of the international guidelines'. Many innovations in national accounting have been made since the Second World War. After gaining wider acceptance and maturity, a great deal of them has been included in the guidelines and some others have not. Since the Second World War, the national accounts statistics published by countries all over the world have changed drastically in scope, concepts, frequency and detail. These developments in national accounts practice do not have a straightforward relationship to the international guidelines. Due to the European Unification, the supply of national accounts in Europe has been improved dramatically.

BEYOND THE DSGE STRAITJACKET1

Academic macroeconomics and the research department of central banks have come to be dominated by Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on micro-foundations of optimising representative agents with rational expectations. We argue that the dominance of this particular sort of DSGE and the resistance of some in the profession to alternatives has become a straitjacket that restricts empirical and theoretical experimentation and inhibits innovation and that the profession should embrace a more flexible approach to macroeconometric modelling. We describe one possible approach.

Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket

Academic macroeconomics and the research department of central banks have come to be dominated by Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on micro-foundations of optimising representative agents with rational expectations. We argue that the dominance of this particular sort of DSGE and the resistance of some in the profession to alternatives has become a straitjacket that restricts empirical and theoretical experimentation and inhibits innovation and that the profession should embrace a more flexible approach to macroeconometric modelling. We describe one possible approach.

Macro-econometric modelling for the Nigerian economy: A growth–poverty gap analysis

This study develops comprehensive full-sector macro-econometric models for the Nigerian economy with the aim of explaining and providing a long-term solution for the persistent growth–poverty divergence experienced by the country. The models are applied to test the hypothesis of existing structural supply-side constraints versus demand-side constraints impeding the economic growth and development of the country. A review of the historical performance of the Nigerian economy reveals significant socio–economic constraints as the predominant impediments to high and sticky levels of poverty in the economy. Thus, a model which is suitable for policy analyses of the Nigerian economy needs to capture the long-run supply-side characteristics of the economy. A price block is incorporated to specify the price adjustment between the production or supply-side sector and real aggregate demand sector. The institutional characteristics with associated policy behaviour are incorporated through a public and monetary sector, whereas the interaction with the rest of the world is represented by a foreign sector, with specific attention being given to the oil sector. The models are estimated with time-series data from 1970 to 2006 using the Engle–Granger two-step co-integration technique, capturing both the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of the economy. The full-sector models are subjected to a series of policy scenarios to evaluate various options for government to improve the productive capacity of the economy, thereby achieving sustained accelerated growth and a reduction in poverty in the Nigerian economy.

Structural Macro-Econometric Modelling in a Policy Environment

In this paper we review the evolution of macroeconomic modelling in a policy environment that took place over the past sixty years. We identify and characterize four generations of macro models. Particular attention is paid to the fourth generation - dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We discuss some of the problems in how these models are implemented and quantified.

The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches

In this paper, we provide economy-wide estimates of the costs of drought in the cropping sector of the Iranian economy, using a linear programming model to estimate the direct costs on agriculture, and a macroeconometric model to trace the indirect impacts on the rest of the economy. The results indicate that a severe drought such as the one that occurred in the crop year 1999–2000 imposes a direct cost of 1605 million USD, equivalent to 30.3% of the total value added of the cropping sector in Iran. This, in turn, leads to a 12.7% reduction in the value added of other agricultural sub-sectors (livestock, fisheries and forestry). In the rest of the economy, the manufacturing and service sectors experience value added declines of 7.8 and 3.7%, respectively. In addition, there is a substantial decrease in investment in the agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors. Thus, such a drought reduces overall GDP by about 4.4%, and it would also result in decreased non-oil exports, increased food imports, and a rise in inflation. The results of some drought mitigation simulations are reported in brief. Such estimates strengthen the case for increased attention to drought strategies and management in agriculture in Iran and elsewhere.

Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling ‐ by Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee, M. Hashem Pesaran and Yongcheol Shin

The article reviews the book Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling, by Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee, M. Hashem Pesaran and Yongcheol Shin.

Factor vector autoregressive estimation: a new approach

In this paper a new approach to factor vector autoregressive estimation, based on Stock and Watson (Implications of dynamic factor models for VAR analysis, NBER Working Paper, no. 11467, 2005), is introduced. In addition to sharing all the relevant features of the Stock-Watson approach, in its static formulation, the proposed method has the advantage of allowing for a more clear-cut interpretation of the global factors, as well as for the identification of all idiosyncratic shocks. An application to large-scale macroeconometric modelling is also provided.

Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models: A Horse Race

This paper compares the generality, accuracy and computational speed of alternative approaches to solving linear rational expectations models, including the procedures of Sims (Solving linear rational expectations models, 1996), Anderson and Moore (Unpublished manuscript, 1983), Binder and Pesaran (Multivariate rational expectations models and macroeconometric modelling: A review and some new results, 1994), King and Watson (International Economic review, 39, 1015---1026, 1998), Klein (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 24, 1405---1423, 1999), and Uhlig (A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily, 1999). While all six procedures yield equivalent results for models with a unique stationary solution, the algorithm of Anderson and Moore (Unpublished manuscript, 1983) is the fastest and provides the highest accuracy; furthermore, the speed advantage increases with the size of the model.

The experiment in macroeconometrics

This paper examines the experiment in macroeconometrics, the different forms it has taken and the rules that have been proposed for its proper conduct. Here an ‘experiment’ means putting a question to a model and getting an answer. Different types of experiment are distinguished and the justification that can be provided for a particular choice of experiment is discussed. Three types of macroeconometric modelling are considered: the Cowles (system of equations) approach, the vector autoregressive model approach and the computational experiment. JEL Classifications: B41, C5, E37