Macroecological Patterns Research Articles

An evaluation of morphometrical trends in a population of Woodringina hornerstownensis Olsson, 1960 (Foraminifera) reveals the role of intraspecific variations for paleoceanographical studies

The foraminiferal species Woodringina hornerstownensis is stratigraphically limited between the stages Danian and Selandian and was adapted to inhabit the mixed layer water column. We present a case study based on morphometry of W. hornerstownensis recovered in upper Danian strata (biozone P2) in the Pernambuco-Paraiba Basin at the Poty quarry. The morphometric data, associated with abundance and geochemical indicators, point to (i) an increase in size towards the top of the studied interval, associated with the shallowing-upward trend of the Maria Farinha Formation, and (ii) an increase in size directly related to the increase in abundance. By integrating and incorporating a specific variation of W. hornerstownensis into abundance parameters, we conclude that the shell increase appears to be consistent. Our results suggest that the increase in size responds to environmental optimum conditions for the species W. hornerstownensis. In a broader context, our work demonstrates the usefulness of morphometric indicators and the significance of intraspecific variation when interpreting macroecological patterns. Keywords: planktic foraminifera, paleoceanography, intraspecific variation, upper Danian, South Atlantic Ocean.

An Ecoinformatic Model Using Rényi's Entropy Predicts Soil Chemistry Effect on Tree Species Abundance Distributions

ABSTRACTAimAn ecological community consists of species of various abundances that reflect their responses to the environmental conditions. A classic macroecological pattern, the species abundance distribution (SAD), has been studied for diverse taxa and communities and integrated into numerous modelling tools. Despite its widespread use, a mathematical model that can capture variations in the empirical SAD and describe its response to environmental changes is still lacking. By integrating the Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology (METE) with a generalised entropy called Rényi's entropy, we aim to develop a new ecoinformatic model that can predict the variation of empirical SAD along multiple environmental gradients.LocationPanama.TaxonAngiosperms.MethodsWe extend the METE using the Rényi's entropy as an uncertainty measure. We apply this extended METE, called Rényi model, to the tree abundance data from 49 plots in Panama and predict the SAD within each plot. We estimate Rényi's parameter q by fitting the predicted SAD to the empirical SAD in each plot. We further compile climate and soil data from the Panama plots and analyse their relationships with the estimated q using multiple regressions.ResultsRényi model provides adequate description of the empirical SADs and outperforms lognormal or log‐series models in 40 of the 49 tree plots, according to the Akaike information criterion. Variations in Renyi's q estimates (from 1/2 to 1) reflect shifts in the empirical SADs. Multiple regressions reveal that P, Al and NH4, three soil chemicals that are important for tree growth and species distribution, significantly affect Renyi's q across plots.Main ConclusionsThese findings suggest that the Rényi model and Rényi's q can characterise the SAD of communities under environmental changes. They also indicate the potential of using generalised entropies to predict macroecological patterns in stressed ecosystems.

Unveiling Macroecological Patterns of Elasmobranchs in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ABSTRACTAimTo examine the species richness, distribution and macroecological patterns of elasmobranch assemblages across a broad latitudinal gradient in the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO).LocationThe study area encompasses the Pacific coast of the American continent, spanning from 65°N to 60°S, and extending from the coastline to approximately 1000 km offshore, encompassing the oceanic archipelagos.TaxonElasmobranchs.MethodsUtilising the established distribution ranges of 190 elasmobranch species (comprising 89 sharks and 101 rays), we assessed the richness and spatial distribution of these species across the EPO. Subsequently, three macroecological patterns were scrutinised: Rapoport's rule, the Mid Domain Effect with its association to Mean Sea Surface Temperature, and the correlation between body size and latitudinal distribution.ResultsThe analysis of species richness along latitudinal gradients unveiled a bimodal pattern, reaching peaks between 30° to 20°N and 10°N to 5°S. A decline in species richness was observed from tropical to polar regions. Contrary to Rapoport's Rule, Stevens' and midpoint methods demonstrated higher geographic range values at lower latitudes, diminishing towards higher latitudes. Additionally, the mid‐domain effect model exhibited a robust correlation with the mean sea surface temperature. Exploring the interspecific relationship between body size and extent of occurrence, it was found that 29 out of 190 species are more susceptible to extinction.Main ConclusionMarine elasmobranchs of the EPO defy conventional latitudinal richness patterns and deviate from Rapoport's rule. Furthermore, our findings indicate a robust correlation between observed richness and both sea surface temperature and environmental heterogeneity. The proportion of species vulnerable to human or stochastic impacts potentially leading to extirpation in relation to their geographic range was low across the majority of examined provinces.

Global proliferation of nonnative plants is a major driver of insect invasions

Abstract Invasions by nonnative insect species can massively disrupt ecological processes, often leading to serious economic impacts. Previous work has identified propagule pressure as important driver of the trend of increasing numbers of insect invasions worldwide. In the present article, we propose an alternative hypothesis—that insect invasions are being driven by the proliferation of nonnative plants, which create niches for insect specialists and facilitate their establishment outside their native ranges where their hosts are planted or are invasive. We synthesize mechanisms by which plant invasions facilitate insect invasions, macroecological patterns supporting the tight link between plant and insect invasions, and case studies of plant invasions having facilitated subsequent insect establishment. This body of evidence indicates that plant invasions are a major driver of insect invasions. Consequently, the benefits of limiting the spread of nonnative plants include averting the proliferation of nonnative insects and their spillover onto native plant species.

Endemic and threatened birds as surrogates for identifying conservation priority areas and ecological corridors in the America’s most endangered habitat

Investigating multi-taxa macroecological patterns can provide critical insights for spatial conservation planning and landscape management across biodiversity hotspots. The Pernambuco Endemism Center (PEC) is a biogeographic region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest known to harbor the most threatened habitats in the Americas and a considerable number of recent bird extinctions. Here, we modeled the distribution of 30 threatened forest-dependent birds, 29 of which endemic to the PEC, to reveal key habitats/resources for their survival, identify conservation priority areas, and design ecological corridors. We found variations in the responses of the taxa to landscape characteristics when we addressed these organisms separately and when we grouped them by conservation status. Overall, the environmental variables related to forest quality (e.g., distance to large fragments, distance to the forest edge, percentage of tree cover, percentage of older forests) were important predictors of habitat suitability for the regional threatened avifauna. Additionally, we revealed forest fragments of high ecological importance for the PEC’s threatened birds, and we propose the creation of the Pernambuco Endemism Center Restoration Arc (PEC-ARC) that may maximize the investments in conservation and guarantee the connectivity of crucial areas for long-term species survival.

Global patterns in the growth potential of soil bacterial communities

Despite the growing catalogue of studies detailing the taxonomic and functional composition of soil bacterial communities, the life history traits of those communities remain largely unknown. This study analyzes a global dataset of soil metagenomes to explore environmental drivers of growth potential, a fundamental aspect of bacterial life history. We find that growth potential, estimated from codon usage statistics, was highest in forested biomes and lowest in arid latitudes. This indicates that bacterial productivity generally reflects ecosystem productivity globally. Accordingly, the strongest environmental predictors of growth potential were productivity indicators, such as distance to the equator, and soil properties that vary along productivity gradients, such as pH and carbon to nitrogen ratios. We also observe that growth potential was negatively correlated with the relative abundances of genes involved in carbohydrate metabolism, demonstrating tradeoffs between growth and resource acquisition in soil bacteria. Overall, we identify macroecological patterns in bacterial growth potential and link growth rates to soil carbon cycling.

Ocean weather, biological rates, and unexplained global ecological patterns.

As on land, oceans exhibit high temporal and spatial temperature variation. This "ocean weather" contributes to the physiological and ecological processes that ultimately determine the patterns of species distribution and abundance, yet is often unrecognized, especially in tropical oceans. Here, we tested the paradigm of temperature stability in shallow waters (<12.5 m) across different zones of latitude. We collated hundreds of in situ, high temporal-frequency ocean temperature time series globally to produce an intuitive measure of temperature variability, ranging in scale from quarter-diurnal to annual time spans. To estimate organismal sensitivity of ectotherms (i.e. microbes, algae, and animals whose body temperatures depend upon ocean temperature), we computed the corresponding range of biological rates (such as metabolic rate or photosynthesis) for each time span, assuming an exponential relationship. We found that subtropical regions had the broadest temperature ranges at time spans equal to or shorter than a month, while temperate and tropical systems both exhibited narrow (i.e. stable) short-term temperature range estimates. However, temperature-dependent biological rates in tropical regions displayed greater ranges than in temperate systems. Hence, our results suggest that tropical ectotherms may be relatively more sensitive to short-term thermal variability. We also highlight previously unexplained macroecological patterns that may be underpinned by short-term temperature variability.

Climate and ecosystem type affect the correlated evolution of body size and trophic position in fishes

AbstractAimThe relationship between body size and trophic position (BS–TP) typically exhibits a positive correlation in aquatic foodwebs, but the strength of this relationship is contingent on ecosystem type and climate. Different hypotheses have been proposed to elucidate climate and ecosystem type effects on the BS–TP relationship for ray‐finned fish. However, our understanding of whether such a relationship evolved in a correlated fashion, spanning various climates and ecosystem types, remains limited.LocationTemperate and tropical marine and freshwater ecosystems.Time PeriodPresent to millions of years ago.Major Taxa StudiedRay‐finned fish.MethodsWe used a phylogenetic tree and TP and BS data of more than a thousand freshwater and marine ray‐finned fishes, from distinct climates and ecosystems, to investigate patterns on macroevolutionary time scales of the evolutionary correlation of BS and TP. As part of our investigation, we also ran analyses excluding herbivores and detritivores from the dataset, then further focusing solely on carnivores.ResultsWe found distinct patterns of the BS–TP evolutionary correlation for different climates and ecosystems. The evolutionary correlation between BS and TP was significant for all ecosystem type–climate combinations, except for tropical freshwater ecosystems. The results remained consistent even after accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty and when excluding herbivores and detritivores from the analysis.Main ConclusionsWe found a weaker evolutionary correlation between BS and TP in tropical freshwater ecosystems. These findings are consistent with the stronger BS–TP relationship between extant taxa in temperate climates compared to the tropics, illustrating how evolutionary dynamics might have influenced the trophic structure of fish and contributed to shaping macroecological patterns of the BS–TP relationship. Our findings suggest that limitations that hinder evolutionary integration between BS and TP might be primarily attributed to energetic constraints imposed by temperature and the availability of C‐rich food resources at the base of the foodweb.

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide.

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

A phylogeny-informed characterisation of global tetrapod traits addresses data gaps and biases.

Tetrapods (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) are model systems for global biodiversity science, but continuing data gaps, limited data standardisation, and ongoing flux in taxonomic nomenclature constrain integrative research on this group and potentially cause biased inference. We combined and harmonised taxonomic, spatial, phylogenetic, and attribute data with phylogeny-based multiple imputation to provide a comprehensive data resource (TetrapodTraits 1.0.0) that includes values, predictions, and sources for body size, activity time, micro- and macrohabitat, ecosystem, threat status, biogeography, insularity, environmental preferences, and human influence, for all 33,281 tetrapod species covered in recent fully sampled phylogenies. We assess gaps and biases across taxa and space, finding that shared data missing in attribute values increased with taxon-level completeness and richness across clades. Prediction of missing attribute values using multiple imputation revealed substantial changes in estimated macroecological patterns. These results highlight biases incurred by nonrandom missingness and strategies to best address them. While there is an obvious need for further data collection and updates, our phylogeny-informed database of tetrapod traits can support a more comprehensive representation of tetrapod species and their attributes in ecology, evolution, and conservation research.

Dispersal-diversity feedbacks and their consequences for macroecological patterns.

Dispersal is a key process in ecology and evolution. While the effects of dispersal on diversity are broadly acknowledged, our understanding of the influence of diversity on dispersal remains limited. This arises from the dynamic, context-dependent, nonlinear and ubiquitous nature of dispersal. Diversity outcomes, such as competition, mutualism, parasitism and trophic interactions can feed back on dispersal, thereby influencing biodiversity patterns at several spatio-temporal scales. Here, we shed light on the dispersal-diversity causal links by discussing how dispersal-diversity ecological and evolutionary feedbacks can impact macroecological patterns. We highlight the importance of dispersal-diversity feedbacks for advancing our understanding of macro-eco-evolutionary patterns and their challenges, such as establishing a unified framework for dispersal terminology and methodologies across various disciplines and scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Macroecological patterns of functional and phylogenetic diversity vary between ground and arboreal assemblages in Neotropical savanna ants

Macroscale environmental gradients can have contrasting effects on organisms that occupy different vertical niches, but we have little understanding of how this might result in different macroscale diversity patterns in ground and arboreal communities. We also have little understanding of how different dimensions of diversity, such as functional and phylogenetic diversity, vary along macroscale environmental gradients. Here we examine latitudinal and elevational patterns of different dimensions of diversity for both ground and arboreal assemblages in Neotropical savanna ants. The study was based on ant species occurring at 32 sites covering a 22° range of latitude and &gt; 1000 m range in elevation in Brazil. Functional and phylogenetic richness were positively correlated with species richness, all increasing with latitude. However, the greater phylogenetic richness on the ground than in trees did not simply reflect differences in species richness. The mean functional and phylogenetic divergence among species was also greater on the ground than in trees, indicating a stronger role of competition. Both mean functional and phylogenetic divergence showed negative correlations with elevation in trees but not on the ground. In trees, the standardized effect size (taking into account differences in species richness) of mean functional divergence was negatively related to elevation and mean phylogenetic divergence was negatively related to both latitude and elevation. These findings suggest that as temperature decreases the relative importance of environmental filtering in arboreal but not ground communities increases (and that of competition and niche partitioning decreases). Overall, we show that the macroecological patterns of ant species richness that have previously been reported for Brazilian savannas do not adequately represent other dimensions of diversity, and that the representativeness differs between vertical strata. Macroecological patterns of functional and phylogenetic divergence indicate that the relative importance of competition and environmental filtering also differs between vertical strata.

Climate‐competition tradeoffs shape the range limits of European beech and Norway spruce along elevational gradients across the Carpathian Mountains

Basic ecological theory suggests that a tradeoff between competitiveness and stress tolerance dictates species range limits at regional extents. However, empirical support for this key theory remains deficient because the necessary spatial and temporal coverage and scalability of field observations has rarely been achieved. We harnessed an extensive dendroecological network (&gt; 22 000 tree‐ring samples from 816 forest inventory plots) to disentangle competition‐limited from climate‐limited growth in both overstory and understory trees. Growth synchrony among trees thereby served as an integral metric of climate sensitivity, an approach that we justify in supplementary analyses of growth responses to temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index. Sampling plots were arranged along elevational climate and vegetation gradients throughout the Carpathian Mountains, ranging from mixed‐species lowland forests to coniferous forests at high elevations. With mixed‐effect modelling, we also identified non‐climatic factors (stand characteristics, species diversity, and disturbance history) that modulate spatial patterns in the growth rate and synchrony of European beech Fagus sylvatica and Norway spruce Picea abies. Beech exhibited reduced growth and increased climate sensitivity towards higher elevations but performed better when species diversity was higher. The growth of spruce increased towards its lower range boundary, but understory cohorts grew poorly under interspecific competition. Overall, climate sensitivity was lower in more productive stands with benign climatic conditions and in recently disturbed sites with reduced stand density. These contrasting performances at mid‐elevations where the two species overlap (900–1300 m a.s.l.) reflect their evolutionary history, which enables them to be competitive (beech) or cold‐stress tolerant (spruce). This history will affect interactions between the two species under climate warming and shape macroecological patterns in the Carpathian ecoregion and likely other parts of Europe. Our findings point to a growing advantage of competitively stronger species in montane and subalpine vegetation zones.

Temperature, not net primary productivity, drives continental-scale variation in insect flight activity.

The amount of energy available in a system constrains large-scale patterns of abundance. Here, we test the role of temperature and net primary productivity as drivers of flying insect abundance using a novel continental-scale data source: weather surveillance radar. We use the United States NEXRAD weather radar network to generate a near-daily dataset of insect flight activity across a gradient of temperature and productivity. Insect flight activity was positively correlated with mean annual temperature, explaining 38% of variation across sites. By contrast, net primary productivity did not explain additional variation. Grassland, forest and arid-xeric shrubland biomes differed in their insect flight activity, with the greatest abundance in subtropical and temperate grasslands. The relationship between insect flight abundance and temperature varied across biome types. In arid-xeric shrublands and in forest biomes the temperature-abundance relationship was indirectly (through net primary productivity) or directly (in the form of precipitation) mediated by water availability. These results suggest that temperature constraints on metabolism, development, or flight activity shape macroecological patterns in ectotherm abundance. Assessing the drivers of continental-scale patterns in insect abundance and their variation across biomes is particularly important to predict insect community response to warming conditions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

Larval gregariousness in Papilionidae is more prevalent outside the tropics

Abstract Larval gregariousness, reported for 20 of the 127 families of Lepidoptera, may enhance thermoregulation, feeding efficiency, and antipredator defence. In the swallowtail family (Papilionidae), which is distributed worldwide yet mainly in the tropics, larval gregariousness has independently evolved at least six times. Here we evaluated in Papilionidae whether gregarious species are mostly distributed in temperate regions, where enhanced thermoregulation should be more beneficial because of the colder climate and greater climatic variations, compared to the tropics. We found data for 198 of the c. 560 species of Papilionidae. Results showed that larval gregariousness was significantly more prevalent in temperate regions. This pattern was statistically significant even when the analysis accounted for phylogenetic relatedness, which also influenced the occurrence of gregariousness. Thus, the shared evolutionary history of Papilionidae species explains in part the global distribution pattern of larval gregariousness. Nonetheless, this macroecological pattern of distribution of larval gregariousness in swallowtail species could have resulted from the ecological benefits concerning thermoregulation that are associated with group living.

Global macroecological patterns in host plant associations of Cryptocephalinae case-bearer leaf beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Abstract The aim of our work is to catalogue host plant records of the leaf beetle subfamily Cryptocephalinae at the global scale and use it as the foundation to analyse host plant relationships, one proposed key driver in the evolution of phytophagan hyperdiversity. We describe macro-scale host association patterns and assess the trophic range of Cryptocephalinae at the generic level. We assembled 532 sources and extracted 14 253 host plant records (1894 species of plants) for 1436 species of Cryptocephalinae. The results revealed that most genera of Cryptocephalinae are either polyphagous or strongly polyphagous, yet the five tribes exhibit intrinsic patterns of host association. Clear macroecological constraints exist for Cryptocephalinae within major lineages of plants. Polyphagy is also maintained for most of the documented juvenile stages and the 19 genera with myrmecophilous species. The most common host plants for Cryptocephalinae are eudicots, especially among the rosids the order Fabales has the most records, and Asterales, Fagales, Malpighiales, Myrtales, Rosales, and Sapindales are common hosts within all Cryptocephalinae tribes. Our meta-analysis approach and assessing the quality of host plant records permit detection of patterns in host association at the global scale and allows detection of all levels of plant–beetle interactions, from unlikely hosts to potential or real feeders. Our criteria for assessing host plant records and our working model can be applied to other chrysomelid subfamilies and phytophagous insects. The analysis of macroecological patterns and host checklist provide a basis for generic revisions and hypothesis construction in future ecological, molecular, and morphological studies.

Species diversity and extinction risk of vertebrate pollinators in India

Animal pollinators underpin the functioning and persistence of ecosystems globally. However, the vital role of pollination is being progressively eroded by the worldwide decline of pollinator species caused by human-induced environmental degradation, resulting in rising costs to biodiversity, agriculture, and economy. Most studies quantifying pollinator diversity and declines have focused on insects, whereas vertebrate pollinators remain comparatively neglected. Here, we present the first comprehensive study quantifying the macroecological patterns of species richness and extinction risk of bird and mammal pollinators in India, a region of extremely high biodiversity and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Our results reveal that hotspots of mammal pollinator diversity are restricted to the south of the Western Ghats, whereas bird pollinator diversity hotspots are scattered throughout the country. Analyses of hotspots of threatened species (based on the IUCN Red List) show that only mammal pollinators are currently classified as threatened in India, whereas multiple hotspots of population declines were observed for birds, and primarily in the Southwest for mammal pollinators. Our analyses failed to identify a role for species traits as drivers of these patterns, whereas most pollinators appear to be threatened by agriculture, logging and hunting for food, and medicinal purposes. Pollinator endangerment has widescale ecological and economic implications such as reduced food production, plant extinction, loss of functional and genetic diversity, and economic damage. We suggest protection of vertebrate pollinators should be emphasised in active conservation agendas in India.

Meta-analyses of reproductive changes in angiosperm populations in response to elevation reveal a lack of global patterns.

Elevation is a major factor shaping plant populations on a global scale. At the same time, reproductive traits play a major role in plant fitness. With increasing altitude and increasingly harsh conditions, decreases in pollinator visitation rates, sexual investment, seed set, and heterozygosity (due to increased selfing) are expected. In response, selection and/or phenotypic plasticity could lead to an increase in plants' floral displays to increase their attractiveness to pollinators and compensates for the negative fitness impacts of reduced pollinator activity. A large body of literature tests these hypotheses at the among-species level, but empirical evidence at the population level (i.e., wihin-species), where adaptive change may occur, is still limited to species-specific studies. Unravelling the global patterns of change in the reproductive traits, flower visitation rates and heterozygosity of plant populations across variable environmental conditions, especially climate can help us to understand how species are able to cope with shifting conditions associated with global change, particularly in mountains. Here, we used meta-analytic approaches to assess the reproductive changes of plant populations in response to elevation on a global scale. We used a data set with 243 paired populations of plants at 'lower' and 'higher' elevations, spanning an elevation range of 0-4380 m asl and taken from 121 angiosperm species and 115 published studies. We analyzed changes in flower number, size and longevity, pollen production, flower visitation rate, seed set and expected heterozygosity.We then tested whether the observed patterns for each trait were dependent upon plant phylogeny and various ecogeographical factors and species traits. We found no evidence of elevation having a global effect on the reproductive traits of angiosperm populations. This null global pattern was not affected by geograph or phylogenetics. Our results suggest that changes in reproductive traits, flower visitation rates, and heterozygosity in plant populations across elevations are specific to each species and ecosystem. Hence, macroevolutionary (across species) and macroecological patterns of elevation of plant reproduction reported previously are apparently not simply the outcome of microevolutionary changes (within species). This apparent specificity of response across plant species poses difficulties in predicting the effects of global changes and, specifically, climatic changes, on the fate of plant species, populations, and communities.

Thermal performance of ecosystems: Modeling how physiological responses to temperature scale up in communities

Understanding how ecosystems respond to their environmental temperature is a major challenge. Thermodynamic constraints on species’ metabolic rates are expected to affect ecosystem characteristics, but species interactions and interspecific variation in physiological thermal response curves (TRC) may obscure ecosystem-level responses to temperature. As a result, macroecological patterns related to temperature are still poorly understood.We investigate how physiological TRC scale up to ecosystem-level thermal responses by modifying the Tangled Nature (TaNa) model, a stochastic network model of ecology and evolution. We include new parameterizations that make reproduction, death, and mutation temperature-dependent. We find that ecosystem survival probability depends on how the minimum fitness required for species survival varies with temperature. The thermal response of ecosystem survival probability is the only ecosystem property that is sensitive to interspecific variation in TRC. Species richness scales up directly from the TRC of mutation rate, and average species population sizes are inversely related to mutation rate, with Species Abundance Distributions (SADs) exhibiting more rare species in warmer temperatures. Interactions between species are also inversely related to mutation, with positive interactions occurring more frequently in colder temperatures. The abundance of surviving ecosystems is not sensitive to temperature. This work helps clarify the specific relationships between physiological responses to temperature and ecosystem-level repercussions when species are interacting and adapting to their thermal environments.

Diversity begets stability: Sublinear growth and competitive coexistence across ecosystems.

The worldwide loss of species diversity brings urgency to understanding how diverse ecosystems maintain stability. Whereas early ecological ideas and classic observations suggested that stability increases with diversity, ecological theory makes the opposite prediction, leading to the long-standing "diversity-stability debate." Here, we show that this puzzle can be resolved if growth scales as a sublinear power law with biomass (exponent <1), exhibiting a form of population self-regulation analogous to models of individual ontogeny. We show that competitive interactions among populations with sublinear growth do not lead to exclusion, as occurs with logistic growth, but instead promote stability at higher diversity. Our model realigns theory with classic observations and predicts large-scale macroecological patterns. However, it makes an unsettling prediction: Biodiversity loss may accelerate the destabilization of ecosystems.