Machine Learning Based Prediction Approaches Research Articles

Predicting Real-World Penny Auction Durations by Integrating Game Theory and Machine Learning

Game theory and machine learning are two widely used techniques for predicting the outcomes of strategic interactions among humans. However, the game theory-based approach often relies on strong rationality and informational assumptions, while the machine learning-based approach typically requires the testing data to come from the same distribution as the training data. Our work studies how to integrate the two techniques to address these weaknesses. We focus on the interactions among real bidders in penny auctions, and develop a three-stage framework to predict the distributions of auction durations, which indicate the numbers of bids and auctioneer revenues. Specifically, we first leverage a pre-trained neural network to encode the descriptions of products in auctions into embeddings. Second, we apply game theory models to make preliminary predictions of auction durations. In particular, we tackle the challenge of accurately inferring parameters in game theory models. Third, we develop a Multi-Branch Mixture Density Network to learn the mapping from product embeddings and game-theoretic predictions to the distributions of actual auction durations. Experiments on real-world penny auction data demonstrate that our framework outperforms both game theory-based and machine learning-based prediction approaches.

MACHINE LEARNING-BASED CLASSIFICATION OF HBV AND HCV-RELATED HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA USING GENOMIC BIOMARKERS

Objective: It is crucial to know the underlying causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for optimal management. This study aims to classify open access gene expression data of HCC patients who have an HBV or HCV infection using the XGboost method. Material and Methods: This case-control study considered the open-access gene expression data of patients with HBV-related HCC and HCV-related HCC. For this purpose, data from 17 patients with HBV+HCC and 17 patients with HCV+HCC were included. XGboost was constructed for the classification via tenfold cross-validation. Accuracy, balanced accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, the positive predictive value, the negative predictive value, and F1 score performance metrics were evaluated for a model performance. Results: With the feature selection approach, 17 genes were chosen, and modeling was done using these input variables. Accuracy, balanced accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and the F1 score obtained from the XGboost model were 97.1%, 97.1%, 94.1%, 100%, 100%, 94.4%, and 97%, respectively. Based on the variable importance findings from the XGboost, the ALDOC, GLUD2, TRAPPC10, FLJ12998, RPL39, KDELR2, and KIAA0446 genes can be employed as potential biomarkers for HBV-related HCC. Conclusion: As a result of the study, two different etiological factors (HBV and HCV) causing HCC were classified using a machine learning-based prediction approach, and genes that could be biomarkers for HBV-related HCC were identified. After the resulting genes have been clinically validated in subsequent research, therapeutic procedures based on these genes can be established and their utility in clinical practice documented.

Machine Learning-based Prediction of HBV-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Detection of Key Candidate Biomarkers.

Objective:This study aimed to classify open-access gene expression data of patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV + HCC) and chronic HBV without HCC (HBV alone) using the XGBoost method, one of the machine learning methods, and reveal important genes that may cause HCC.Methods:This case-control study used the open-access gene expression data of patients with HBV + HCC and HBV alone. Data from 17 patients with HBV + HCC and 36 patients with HBV were included. XGBoost was constructed for the classification via 10-fold cross-validation. Accuracy, balanced accuracy, sensitivity, selectivity, positive-predictive value, and negative-predictive value performance metrics were evaluated for model performance.Results:According to the feature-selection method, 18 genes were selected, and modeling was performed with these input variables. Accuracy, balanced accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value, negative-predictive value, and F1 score obtained from XGBoost model were 98.1%, 98.6%, 100%, 97.2%, 94.4%, 100%, and 97.1%, respectively. Based on the predictor importance findings acquired from XGBoost, the RNF26, FLJ10233, ACBD6, RBM12, PFAS, H3C11, and GKP5 can be employed as potential biomarkers of HBV-related HCC.Conclusions:In this study, genes that may be possible biomarkers of HBV-related HCC were determined using a machine learning-based prediction approach. After the reliability of the obtained genes are clinically verified in subsequent research, therapeutic procedures can be established based on these genes, and their usefulness in clinical practice may be documented.

Machine learning based track height prediction for complex tool paths in direct metal deposition

The tooling industry persistently demands for advanced techniques to boost the tools performances over their lifecycle. Direct Metal Deposition (DMD) presents key opportunities in the tool refurbishment. However, the typical tool paths via DMD consist of alternated smooth segments and sharp corners. Here, the fluctuation of energy density and powder quantities often cause critical geometrical deviations to the tool restored sections. This work presents a novel machine learning based prediction approach that characterizes paths using features associated to process parameters and performed geometry. The benefits of the approach have been validated on toolpaths, which typically characterize a tool refurbishment process.

Design and development of multilayer cotton masks via machine learning

With the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, reusable high-performance cloth masks are recommended for the public to minimize virus spread and alleviate the demand for disposable surgical masks. However, the approach to design a high-performance cotton mask is still unclear. In this study, we aimed to find out the relationship between fabric properties and mask performance via experimental design and machine learning. Our work is the first reported work of employing machine learning to develop protective face masks. Here, we analyzed the characteristics of Egyptian cotton (EC) fabrics with different thread counts and measured the efficacy of triple-layered masks with different layer combinations and stacking orders. The filtration efficiencies of the triple-layered masks were related to the cotton properties and the layer combination. Stacking EC fabrics in the order of thread count 100-300-100 provides the best particle filtration efficiency (45.4%) and bacterial filtration efficiency (98.1%). Furthermore, these key performance metrics were correctly predicted using machine-learning models based on the physical characteristics of the constituent EC layers using Lasso and XGBoost machine-learning models. Our work showed that the machine learning-based prediction approach can be generalized to other material design problems to improve the efficiency of product development.

Space-Time Machine Learning Models to Analyze COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown Effects on Aerosol Optical Depth over Europe

The recent COVID-19 pandemic affected various aspects of life. Several studies established the consequences of pandemic lockdown on air quality using satellite remote sensing. However, such studies have limitations, including low spatial resolution or incomplete spatial coverage. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a machine learning-based scheme to solve the pre-mentioned limitations by training an optimized space-time extra trees model for each year of the study period. The results have shown that our trained models reach a prediction accuracy up to 95% when predicting the missing values in the MODIS MCD19A2 Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) product. The outcome of the mentioned scheme was a geo-harmonized atmospheric dataset for aerosol optical depth at 550 nm with 1 km spatial resolution and full coverage over Europe. As an application, we used the proposed machine learning based prediction approach in AOD levels analysis. We compared the mean AOD levels between the lockdown period from March to June in 2020 and the mean AOD values of the same period for the past 5 years. We found that AOD levels dropped over most European countries in 2020 but increased in several eastern and western countries. The Netherlands had the most significant average decrease in AOD levels (19%), while Spain had the highest average increase (10%). Moreover, we analyzed the relationship between the relative percentage difference of AOD and four meteorological variables. We found a positive correlation between AOD and relative humidity and a negative correlation between AOD and wind speed. The value of the proposed prediction scheme is further emphasized by taking into consideration that the reconstructed dataset can be used for future air quality studies concerning Europe.

A novel machine learning-based approach for prediction of nitrogen content in hydrochar from hydrothermal carbonization of sewage sludge

In this work, 138 datapoints, including elemental composition and ultimate analysis of various types of sewage sludge, and the hydrothermal carbonization reaction conditions, are used to develop a prediction model for the nitrogen content of the hydrochar. The results suggested that a two-layer feedforward neural network with five (05) neurons in the hidden layer can accurately predict the nitrogen content of the hydrochar based on the reaction temperature and the contents of nitrogen, carbon, volatiles and fixed carbon in the feedstock. Over 100 runs, the R2 and RMSE are in [87.547–99.097%] and [0.243–1.431] wt.% (db), respectively. Moreover, a statistical and regression analysis revealed that the sewage sludge-N is the main contributor to the hydrochar-N. Mostly, 40–70% of sewage sludge-N goes to hydrochar-N. The results are consistent with previous experimental reports, and this model can be used to predict the sewage sludge-derived hydrochar-N.

SMMPPI: a machine learning-based approach for prediction of modulators of protein-protein interactions and its application for identification of novel inhibitors for RBD:hACE2 interactions in SARS-CoV-2.

Small molecule modulators of protein–protein interactions (PPIs) are being pursued as novel anticancer, antiviral and antimicrobial drug candidates. We have utilized a large data set of experimentally validated PPI modulators and developed machine learning classifiers for prediction of new small molecule modulators of PPI. Our analysis reveals that using random forest (RF) classifier, general PPI Modulators independent of PPI family can be predicted with ROC-AUC higher than 0.9, when training and test sets are generated by random split. The performance of the classifier on data sets very different from those used in training has also been estimated by using different state of the art protocols for removing various types of bias in division of data into training and test sets. The family-specific PPIM predictors developed in this work for 11 clinically important PPI families also have prediction accuracies of above 90% in majority of the cases. All these ML-based predictors have been implemented in a freely available software named SMMPPI for prediction of small molecule modulators for clinically relevant PPIs like RBD:hACE2, Bromodomain_Histone, BCL2-Like_BAX/BAK, LEDGF_IN, LFA_ICAM, MDM2-Like_P53, RAS_SOS1, XIAP_Smac, WDR5_MLL1, KEAP1_NRF2 and CD4_gp120. We have identified novel chemical scaffolds as inhibitors for RBD_hACE PPI involved in host cell entry of SARS-CoV-2. Docking studies for some of the compounds reveal that they can inhibit RBD_hACE2 interaction by high affinity binding to interaction hotspots on RBD. Some of these new scaffolds have also been found in SARS-CoV-2 viral growth inhibitors reported recently; however, it is not known if these molecules inhibit the entry phase.

Machine Learning-Based Predictive Modelling of Biodiesel Production—A Comparative Perspective

Owing to the ever-growing impetus towards the development of eco-friendly and low carbon footprint energy solutions, biodiesel production and usage have been the subject of tremendous research efforts. The biodiesel production process is driven by several process parameters, which must be maintained at optimum levels to ensure high productivity. Since biodiesel productivity and quality are also dependent on the various raw materials involved in transesterification, physical experiments are necessary to make any estimation regarding them. However, a brute force approach of carrying out physical experiments until the optimal process parameters have been achieved will not succeed, due to a large number of process parameters and the underlying non-linear relation between the process parameters and responses. In this regard, a machine learning-based prediction approach is used in this paper to quantify the response features of the biodiesel production process as a function of the process parameters. Three powerful machine learning algorithms—linear regression, random forest regression and AdaBoost regression are comprehensively studied in this work. Furthermore, two separate examples—one involving biodiesel yield, the other regarding biodiesel free fatty acid conversion percentage—are illustrated. It is seen that both random forest regression and AdaBoost regression can achieve high accuracy in predictive modelling of biodiesel yield and free fatty acid conversion percentage. However, AdaBoost may be a more suitable approach for biodiesel production modelling, as it achieves the best accuracy amongst the tested algorithms. Moreover, AdaBoost can be more quickly deployed, as it was seen to be insensitive to number of regressors used.

Intelligent Traffic Prediction by Multi-sensor Fusion using Multi-threaded Machine Learning

Estimation and analysis of traffic jams plays a vital role in an intelligent transportation system and advances safety in the transportation system as well as mobility and optimization of environmental impact. For these reasons, many researchers currently mainly focus on the brilliant machine learning-based prediction approaches for traffic prediction systems. This paper primarily addresses the analysis and comparison of prediction accuracy between two machine learning algorithms: Naive Bayes and K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN). Based on the fact that optimized estimation accuracy of these methods mainly depends on a large amount of recounted data and that they require much time to compute the same function heuristically for each action, we propose an approach that applies multi-threading to these heuristic methods. It is obvious that the greater the amount of historical data, the more processing time is necessary. For a real-time system, operational response time is vital, and the proposed system also focuses on the time complexity cost as well as computational complexity. It is experimentally confirmed that K-NN does much better than Naive Bayes, not only in prediction accuracy but also in processing time. Multithreading- based K-NN could compute four times faster than classical K-NN, whereas multithreading - based Naive Bayes could process only twice as fast as classical Bayes.