Monetary Aggregate M2 Research Articles

COMMERCIAL BANKS OF UKRAINE DURING THE WAR: NEW TRENDS AND OLD PROBLEMS

The article is devoted to the analysis of the peculiarities of the activities of commercial banks in Ukraine during the period of full-scale war. Its purpose is to identify new trends in banking activity and substantiate recommendations for restructuring the work of banks and its state regulation in the post-war period. During the study, a number of hypotheses were tested. It is proved that despite the significant number of commercial banks in Ukraine, the banking services market is actually oligopolistic. Taking into account the fact that state-owned banks, whose share in the total assets of commercial banks reaches 56%, actually pursue a coordinated policy and act as a single entity, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index for the banking sector of Ukraine is more than 3000, which corresponds to an oligopolistic market. This situation is justified for martial law, but it will require changes in the post-war period. The hypothesis that the main factor affecting the size of commercial banks’ assets is monetary aggregates was confirmed. The closest correlation was found between the size of assets and the monetary aggregate M2. This gives reason to recommend regulating this monetary aggregate as a tool for state regulation of banking assets. During the full-scale war, the tendency to change the structure of banking assets, which originated back in 2020, intensified. A sharp decrease in the share of loans granted was noted, while the share of debt securities, mainly government bonds, increased. On the one hand, this is evidence of the success of the implementation of government programs to attract funds from commercial banks for borrowing and covering the state budget deficit, and on the other hand, it distracts the banking system from fulfilling its main function - mobilizing temporarily free funds and providing loans. The high yield of government bonds, the NBU discount rate, which significantly exceeds the inflation rate, make loans inaccessible to business. And since other components of the market infrastructure (for example, joint investment institutions) are underdeveloped in Ukraine, business is actually deprived of the opportunity to attract funds for the implementation of investment projects. A study of the dynamics of bank performance indicators (ROA, ROE) for the period from 2008 to 2024 showed that after the banking crisis of 2015-2018, when the banking system as a whole operated at a loss, in the following years the situation not only stabilized, but also demonstrated that banks received excess profits. This is again a consequence of high interest rates on government securities and the concentration of profits in state-owned banks. Substantiated proposals for changes in state policy in the post-war period, which should revive the lending activities of commercial banks.

Money/Asset Ratio as a Predictor of Inflation

This paper modifies the quantity theory of money to forecast inflation, relating the latter to scale variables such as monetary aggregate M2 and government bonds that measure the money demand for asset transactions. The out-of-sample forecast results show that at least since the early 1990s, the money/asset model that uses the money supply/government debt ratio as a predictor has been significantly improved upon univariate and multivariate models, such as Phillips curve and term spread models, for forecasting U.S. inflation over one- to three-year horizons. In using real-time vintage data, I find that, since 2000Q1, the forecasts derived from the money/asset model have slightly improved upon those from the Greenbook in forecasting quarter-over-quarter CPI inflation at short horizons, from two- to four-quarter. These results imply that the Federal Reserve can use the money supply/government debt ratio to forecast and control the inflation rates, coordinating monetary policy with fiscal policy. Moreover, the money supply/government debt ratio can partly explain the U.S. inflation dynamics from the early 1960s until COVID-19.

Прогноз мировых цен нефти на основе монетарной политики Соединённых Штатов Америки

This study explores the critical realm of forecasting oil prices within the global energy resources market. The research is particularly timely as it provides new insights into the future growth prospects of Brent crude oil prices, which are increasingly influenced by the indicators of the monetary policy set forth by the USA Federal Reserve. The primary objective of this scientific endeavor is to predict Brent crude oil prices in response to shifts in the indicators of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. To fulfill this objective, the study systematically tackled several key tasks. These tasks encompassed a thorough examination of the theoretical foundations underpinning oil price forecasting, the meticulous compilation of statistical data related to the target indicators, and the application of specialized economic methodologies. Mul[1]tiple linear regression equations were formulated to establish the relationship be[1]tween Brent crude oil prices and the indicators of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Furthermore, the study ventured into the prediction of these Federal Reserve indicators and arrived at substantive conclusions. The research methodology employed a range of general and specialized scientific techniques, encompassing analysis, synthesis, and statistical analysis. Notably, the scientific innovation of this study lies in the construction of multiple linear regres[1]sion equations to forecast Brent crude oil prices, hinging on key indicators of the USA Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including the effective federal funds rate, the M2 monetary aggregate, the US dollar index, the core personal consumption expenditure price index, and the US unemployment rate. Additionally, this study cal[1]culated an increasing trend equation for the M2 monetary aggregate in the United States. The practical implications of this research are profound, offering valuable insights for investors looking to craft effective trading strategies within the global energy resources market.

Monetary policy in China: A Factor Augmented VAR approach

This paper investigates the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy. We employ the data-rich Factor Augmented VAR (FAVAR) model to address the paucity of Chinese data. We find that the Divisia monetary aggregate M2 (DMA2) that considers both the quantity of monetary assets and the user-cost of the money/forgone interest rate is more effective in boosting economic activities and prices than other instruments (e.g., interest rate, simple money supply M2, and required reserve ratio). These other instruments produce outcomes that contradict theoretical predictions in at least one area. Therefore, we suggest the use of the DMA2 to steer the performance of the Chinese economy effectively.

The impact of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System of the United States on world oil prices

The relevance of the presented scientific research lies in the search for new data on foreign economic factors that can change world oil prices. The purpose of the study is to predict the prices of Brent crude oil based on the impact of new external economic factors, because the influence of supply and demand in the energy market has significantly weakened. To achieve the purpose of the study, the following tasks were solved: the theoretical foundations of the oil market were considered; a methodological approach to forecasting world oil prices was selected; as a result, an equation of multiple linear regression with independent variables in the form of indicators of the monetary policy of the United States is constructed, which makes it possible to make a forecast of world oil prices. The research involves general and special scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, monographic, statistical (graphical, tabular, centered moving average method, correlation and regression analysis). The scientific novelty of the study is as follows: based on statistical data on Brent crude oil prices, the effective federal funds rate of the US Federal Reserve, the M2 monetary aggregate in the US, the US dollar index, the US core personal consumption expenditure price index, the unemployment rate in the US for the period January 2014 January 2023, the equation is constructed multiple linear regression with the function of forecasting Brent crude oil prices. The above equation of multiple linear regression reflects the noticeable influence of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System on world oil prices.

THE MONETARY COMPONENT IN ENSURING THE FINANCIAL SECURITY OF THE STATE

The paper studies the place and degree of the monetary component's influence on the level of financial security of the state in the conditions of political and socio-economic imbalances in the development of Ukraine. The aim of the research is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments, to determine the level of the monetary component's impact on the financial security of the state, as well as to form perspectives for balancing the symbiosis of "monetary policy and national financial security". Based on the conducted research, it is established that in recent years the role of the financial security system formation at all levels has significantly increased, whether it is macroeconomic security, the security of economical subjects, or the financial security of a household. At the same time, the monetary component plays a significant role in ensuring the financial security of the state, namely, it affects macroeconomic processes in the country. Therefore, in order to ensure macroeconomic stability and economic growth in the context of ensuring the financial security of Ukraine under martial law, it is necessary to improve the mechanisms of monetary policy. The article analyzes the latest threats that lead to the negative impact of the monetary component on the financial security of the state. These include: the consequences of russian military aggression on the economic development of Ukraine, continued COVID-19 outbreaks, the introduction of administrative restrictions on the use of monetary policy instruments by the National bank of Ukraine, violations of the economic security of financial institutions, an insufficient level of financial inclusion, and the contradictory nature of the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. In the context of establishing the decisive role of the monetary component in ensuring the financial security of the state, the adopted development strategies at the level of national security of Ukraine and at the level of the monetary sector of Ukraine are considered and systematized. The block diagram of the implementation of monetary policy in the context of ensuring the financial security of the state is proposed. It is proved that the mechanism of such interrelationship is implemented through the instruments and methods of monetary policy in combination with key macroeconomic indicators. To confirm the proposed hypothesis, the econometric model of the influence of monetary instruments on the level of financial security of the state is developed. As a proxy indicator of the financial security of Ukraine, the Financial Stress Index is used, which reflects the current state of the financial sector (without considering future risks) and consists of sub-indices for the banking sector, households, government and corporate securities, and foreign exchange market. Estimated and re-estimated models made it possible to determine the most influential indicators of the monetary component of the Financial Stress Index, namely: consumer price index; producer price index; GDP to monetary aggregate M2 ratio; cash to GDP ratio; share of foreign currency in monetary aggregate M3; NBU key policy rate (annual average); share of non-performing loans (NPL). The proposed model can be used to forecast the influence of the parameters of the monetary component on the level of financial security of the state.Based on the results of the study, it is proved that, despite the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to focus on improving the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, considering the further implementation of the main provisions of international documents adopted by International Monetary Fund on this issue.

Should the monetary authorities be sensitive to inequality concerns? Empirical evidence for a panel of 62 countries

PurposeThis paper aims to study, by means of an empirical approach, how monetary policy might affect the distribution of individual income.Design/methodology/approachAfter describing the channels through which monetary policy could impinge on income distribution, the authors carry out a panel analysis of 62 countries that control their monetary policy for the period 1996–2015.FindingsUsing two possible proxy variables for monetary policy (the monetary aggregate M3 and the real interest rates), the results reveal a significant positive relationship between real interest rates and income inequality measured through the market Gini coefficient and polarization ratios. The findings suggest that central bankers should be more aware of the redistributive effects of monetary policy.Research limitations/implicationsIt should be mentioned the major challenge of data limitation in the empirical investigation on the relationship between monetary policies and inequalities.Practical implicationsThe empirical evidence presented in this paper supports the premise that central bankers should not ignore the unintended redistributive consequences of their actions. In this regard, it is worth noting that if, in addition to price stability, central banks are also responsible for financial stability; the rationale behind central bank independence needs to be reconsidered.Originality/valueAn outstanding feature of the paper is its sample size and the variety of countries included in the sample, which includes countries from all continents and with very different levels of economic development. Also, unlike papers based on forecasting modeling – e.g. Vector autoregression (VAR) or Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models, the study follows an explanatory approach, including not only monetary variables, but also a series of regressors that may have a meaningful and significant impact on inequality, according to a wide literature.

Forecast of stock quotations of Sberbank PJSC using correlation and regression analysis

The scientific research, which consists in making a forecast regarding the stock quotes of Sberbank PJSC, is relevant because it reveals the prospects of the Russian financial sector. It allows investors to form a trading strategy for buying ordinary shares of Sberbank PJSC to generate income in the future. The purpose of the scientific article is to build an economic and mathematical model for forecasting quotations of ordinary shares of Sberbank PJSC. To achieve this goal, the theoretical foundations of the formation of monetary policy in Russia, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, oil prices on the world market have been studied. The degree of influence of the above factors on the quotations of ordinary shares of Sberbank PJSC has been established. In the process of work, general and special scientific methods are involved: analysis, synthesis, monographic, statistical. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the construction of multiple and paired linear regression equations reflecting the dependence of quotations of ordinary shares of Sberbank PJSC on the M2 monetary aggregate in Russia, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the USD/RUB currency pair, and Brent crude oil prices. Based on the equation of paired linear regression containing data on the M2 monetary aggregate in Russia, a forecast was made for the value of ordinary shares of Sberbank PJSC. In comparison with the trend of increasing money supply in Russia, ordinary shares of Sberbank PJSC look undervalued and attractive for investment.

Efekat monetarne politike na bruto domaći proizvod u Republici Srbiji

The aim of this paper is to carry out an analysis of the impact of the monetary and credit policy on the real economic flows in the Republic of Serbia. In order to answer to the given goal, a correlation and regression analysis was performed for the period from 2004 to 2020. The results of this analysis have shown that there is a strong influence of the monetary and credit policy on the gross domestic product of the Republic of Serbia. Based on the results of the conducted regression analysis, it was found that in the Republic of Serbia, with the growth of the monetary aggregate M2 by 1%, gross domestic product grew by 0.691%. It was also found that the growth of approved long-term loans by 1% had a positive impact on the growth of gross domestic product by 0.425%. These values point to the great importance of the monetary and credit policy on economic growth in the Republic of Serbia and the need to attach great importance to monetary policy in the future period.

Correlation regression based forecast of Gazprom PJSC stock quotes

Introduction. A scientific research examining the concern of Gazprom PJSC (a leading Russian energy company) stock quote forecasts is relevant because it could determine investment prospects in the stock market of the Russian Federation. The key idea of this work is to find the most profitable and investable Russian company and outline the factors among many others that affect its stock quotes. Purpose . The author attempts to construct multiple linear regression equations reflecting the impact of the economic factors (the prices of the American natural gas, the USD/RUB currency pair, the M2 monetary aggregate in Russia) on the Gazprom PJSC stock quotes. These multiple linear regression equations are used to develop economic and mathematical models with the projected values of the factors. Materials and Methods . The paper refers to the general and special scientific methods – analysis, synthesis, a monographic method, and statistical methods – graphs, tables, trend spotting, correlation and regression analysis. The choice of independent variables in the correlation and regression analysis was driven by several factors: global natural gas prices determine the fi nancial performance of the Russian energy companies; the revenue of the Russian exporters has long been dependent on the USD/RUB currency pair; security quotes rose at the stock markets due to the monetary policy of central banks which strive to build up the monetary supply. Results. The study developed the equations of multiple linear regressions for the selected four periods with different economic scenarios. This proves the relevancy of the issue under analysis. These equations reflect the dependence of the Gazprom PJSC stock quotes from the prices of the American natural gas, the USD/RUB currency pair, and the money supply in Russia. They could give rise to the economic and mathematical models with the projected values of the analyzed factors and their possible correlations. Conclusion . The economic factors in question could have a positive impact on the Gazprom PJSC stock quotes against a weak Russian ruble and the national energy companies refocusing their attention on other markets. This information could be of use for the economic entities to boost their investment performance.

Analysis of the Relationship between Money Growth and Inflation Using Wavelet Coherency

Different theories of money lead to different conclusions about whether there is a stable long-run relationship between money growth and inflation. In this analysis, the author examines the wavelet coherency between the growth in the M2 monetary aggregate and inflation in Hungary. Based on the findings, there is no robust long-run relationship between the two variables. When filtering out movements in the HUF exchange rate, the coherency between money growth and inflation is eliminated even over the period from the mid-2000s to the early 2010s. This also empirically supports the assumption that monetary policy does not affect inflation by shaping the money supply.

Sectoral Analysis of the Demand for Real Money Balances in Pakistan

The main objective of monetary policy in Pakistan, as in other countries, is to achieve price stability. In order to achieve the objective of stable prices, the State Bank of Pakistan is using M2 definition of money supply as an intermediate target variable to conduct the monetary policy. This choice of target variable is based on the long understanding that only the demand for M2 monetary aggregate is stable in Pakistan. The definition of money aggregates two main sectors of the economy that is business sector and household sector. Theories such as quantity theory, Keynesian and transactions, state that both sectors have diversified behaviour. Money demand behaviour of these sectors largely depends on the different sets of variables. Therefore the aggregation of these sectors is rather poor.

Analyzing the financial sector's position in the Russian economy

Subject. This article deals with the issues of stability of the financial system of Russia. Objectives. The article aims to find the best tools for improving the financial system of Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analyses. Results. The article determines the significant volatility of the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M2 and notes a decrease in the amplitude values of the growth rates of the debt of the non-financial sector and households on bank loans and issued debt securities. Conclusions. The financial sector in the Russian economy acts as a regulator of the growth of debt of the non-financial sector and households on bank loans and issued debt securities. Currently, loans and borrowings are the most effective financial instruments.

Euro area monetary asset demand and Divisia aggregates**

Monetary asset user costs are functions of spreads between a benchmark rate of return and the own rates of return on the monetary assets. We analyze the impact of the benchmark rate on a Euro area Divisia M2 aggregate, on estimated elasticities of substitution, and on estimated impulse response functions. Substitution in response to changes in the user cost of M1 is generally elastic, but we find evidence of inelastic substitution along other dimensions. When a loan rate is used as the benchmark, substitution in response to changes in the user costs of the two components of M2-M1 is inelastic throughout the sample and the corresponding elasticity estimates are near their lowest levels during the pandemic. This is strong evidence that Divisia monetary aggregates are preferable to conventional monetary aggregates. Annual growth rates of simple sum and Divisia M2 monetary aggregates differ significantly in some periods, but not during the pandemic. Estimated impulse response functions using both Divisia and simple sum money measures indicate that money shocks have positive and statistically significant effects on real output. The response of the price level to a money shock tends to be more persistent when the models are estimated using Divisia aggregates. .

Analysis of The Long-Term Links Between the Money Supply and The Consumer Price Index of The Republic of Azerbaijan

Purpose of the study.Monetary policy is one of the most effective tools of the state under the control of the central bank. It allows you to influence macroeconomic components, such as the amount of money supply, activity in the credit market and the exchange rate of the national currency. Such actions lead to an increase in the money supply and the speed of its turnover, ensuring the availability of loans. Economic growth is being stimulated, but there are also adverse consequences - inflation is accelerating. The central bank uses monetary policy more frequently to bring about the desired level of change in real economic activity. These changes significantly affect the stock market. Economic theory uses the relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index. An analysis of the impact of the money supply on the consumer price index is necessary to select the most reliable type of monetary policy in the economy, to ensure macroeconomic stability or to stimulate economic growth. The money supply not only denotes and shows the level of money in various types and forms, but is also an important indicator on which price increases, inflation, credit policy, etc. depend. The dynamics of the money supply determines the dynamics of prices. The accumulation of excess money supply in the country’s economy leads to the depreciation of the national currency. The purpose of the study is to analyze the long-term relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan.Materials and methods.In the article to analyze the long-term links between monetary aggregates M1, M2 and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan based on quarterly data for 2005-2018, a long-term equilibrium state model and a short-term error correction model were designed. With the help of cointegration analysis and a vector model, the long-term and short-term aspects of the links between the growth of the money supply and the increase in the price level are investigated. For the regression analysis of these models, the EViews 8 application package was used.Results. Using the various methods showed that the dynamics of M1 and M2 monetary aggregates determine the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long-term and in the short-term periods.Conclusion.The analysis allows us correctly approaching the problem of modelling the inflation level and to obtain a statistically acceptable and stable model with good predictive characteristics. The fact that there is a connection in the opposite direction has been confirmed. The use of various complementary methods showed that the dynamics of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 determines the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long and short term.

Необходимость смены приоритетов денежно-кредитной политики

The sanctions standoff, the growing global crisis, and the pandemic have exacerbated the issues of stimulating economic growth and investment activity. This study is based on data from the IMF, Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, and the Rand Corporation. This study is based on the publications of a number of foreign and Russian scientists. It analyzes the dynamics and structure of investments in fixed assets, GDP, money supply (monetary aggregate M2), the rate of inflation, and the key interest rate. In the course of the analysis, the dynamics of GDP growth, money supply, and the monetization coefficient of the leading economies, including Russia, were analyzed. In the course of the study, the regularities, features and limits of monetization were established. The results of the study can be used to further substantiate the necessity and expediency of the monetary policy vector, as well as to develop tools for channeling the money supply. The study revealed that the sanctions regime is formed by noticeable problems with attracting foreign investment. The latter leads to a decline in investment activity and stagnation in the economy. In this situation, it is necessary to change the priorities of monetary policy.

МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ В РОССИИ, ФОРМИРУЮЩИЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННУЮ И ПРЕДПРИНИМАТЕЛЬСКУЮ СРЕДУ

The presented scientific article examines the macroeconomic environment in Russia for investment and entrepreneurial activity. This macroeconomic environment consists of the following indicators: gross domestic product; consumer price index; unemployment rate; key interest rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; USD/RUB currency pair; M2 monetary aggregate; exports, imports, trade balance. Based on the dynamics and trends of the selected macroeconomic indicators, it is established that the external environment is favorable for increasing the money supply in our country, as well as for investment and entrepreneurial activity. The expansion of the money supply in Russia is able to stimulate economic growth during the economic crisis. Therefore, the research topic is relevant. The purpose of the study is to assess the macroeconomic environment for increasing the money supply. The following scientific research methods were used: analysis, synthesis, monographic, statistical. Scientific research has shown that the trends of the presented macroeconomic indicators will positively affect the growth of the M2 monetary aggregate in Russia. The increase in the money supply in our country will ensure the fulfillment of social obligations, finance small and medium-sized businesses and large companies, support the labor market, generate consumer demand, and revive investment activity. The trends of macroeconomic indicators in Russia, which form the investment and business environment, have the following form: gross domestic product is growing; consumer price index is slowing down; the unemployment rate is decreasing; the key interest rate of the Bank of Russia is decreasing; the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is strengthening. Changes occur against the background of an increase in the money supply. An additional increase in the money supply will support the current positive trends.

ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ ГРОШОВОГО КАНАЛУ МОНЕТАРНОЇ ТРАНСМІСІЇ В УКРАЇНІ

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the monetary channel of monetary transmission in Ukraine in 2005–2021, identifies tools and mechanisms for its use, and describes the specifics of functioning in the monetary regulation of the economy in political and economic instability. It is proved that in the conditions of Ukraine the monetary channel of monetary transmis-sion plays an important role in the system of monetary regulation of the economy, and the main purpose of its use is to ensure optimal proportions between supply and demand of money and balanced money market development. It is determined that in 2005–2021 the efficiency of the monetary channel of monetary transmission in Ukraine was low, and its operation was subject to the use of mainly interest, currency and credit channels. It is substantiated that the main reasons for the inefficiency of the monetary channel of monetary transmission were the central bank's underestimation of the role of the monetary channel in the monetary regulation of the economy, unbalanced structure and dynamics of the monetary base and monetary aggregates, and low money multiplication rate. It is proved that the dynamics of monetary aggregate M3 had the most significant impact on the growth rate of real GDP in the analyzed period. It was found that the influence of the dynamics of monetary aggregates on curb-ing inflation was insignificant, which corresponds to the provisions of the theory of "money neutrality". Based on the analysis of the practice of using the monetary channel of monetary transmission, three cycles of monetary and macroeconomic dynamics are distinguished: 1) 2005–2009; 2) 2010–2015; 3) 2016–2021, their features and the nature of the relationship between the studied indicators are determined. It is proved that in the conditions of complicated economic development it is necessary to change the approaches to the mechanisms of monetary transmission monetary channel by strengthening its role in forming the main monetary proportions and increasing the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, in particular, in issuing and trading government debt securities, public debt service and state budget deficit. It is argued that in the medium term the growth rate of the monetary base and monetary aggregates should be as consistent as possible with the dynamics of real GDP and the ability to curb inflation, and the rate of return on domestic government debt should not exceed the base interest rate. Priority measures to improve the efficiency of the monetary transmission monetary channel in Ukraine should be: strengthening the stability of the banking system, balancing the supply and demand of money, improving methods of forming the volume and structure of monetary base and monetary aggregates, and improving monetary and fiscal policy coordination. implementation by the central bank of a balanced monetary policy adequate to real economic conditions.

ПОРІВНЯЛЬНИЙ АНАЛІЗ ДОЛАРИЗАЦІЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ ПОЛЬЩІ ТА УКРАЇНИ

The problem of dollarization of the economy is one of the main features of the Ukrainian economy for a long time. It is necessary to find effective ways to decrease it, so the positive experience of other countries, in particular, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe can be very useful. It is obvious that dollarization in Ukraine after the start of a Russian aggressive war will increase significantly and will have an impact on the functioning of the economy. The purpose of the article is to analyze the dynamics of unofficial dollarization in Poland and Ukraine, which will make it possible to compare the trajectory and causes of this phenomenon in the two countries with similar initial conditions. The article provides estimations and a comparative analysis of indicators of unofficial dollarization in Poland and Ukraine. The main indicators of dollarization were calculated – deposit dollarization (ratio of deposits in foreign currencies to all deposits), credit dollarization (ratio of loans in foreign currencies to all loans) and dollarization by monetary aggregate M3 (ratio of deposits in foreign currencies to «broad money»), using official statistical data of the central banks of both countries. The results showed that Poland and Ukraine had a similar situation in the early 1990s, but later dollarization trends began to diverge. The Ukrainian economy can be classified as a highly dollarized, with a traditionally high level of dollarization and a large-scale volatility of its indicators. The dollarization of the Ukrainian economy significantly increased due to frequent currency and financial crises, mistrust of the national currency, lack of reforms and often political crises. The Polish economy shows a positive trend in the long term and does not belong to dollarized countries. In Poland dollarization gradually decreased and now does not threaten the monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland. However, after the beginning of the Russian aggression, the growth of the indicators of dollarization can be clearly seen in both countries, but dollarization is growing much faster in Ukraine. It is quite obvious that the consequences of the war will be long-term.

Прогноз валютной пары USD/RUB в краткосрочном периоде

The article provides a forecast of the USD/RUB currency pair based on the equation of a linear downward trend. The aim of the research is forecasting the USD/RUB currency pair to determine the effectiveness of Russia's foreign economic activity and the real incomes of the country's population in the future, which makes the research relevant. The research is carried out using the following scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, monographic (description of Russian macroeconomics), statistical (identification of trends, calculation of correlation coefficients, graphic). The research is based on statistical data on the economic indicators of the Russian Federation: the USD/RUB currency pair, exports, imports, trade balance, the consumer price index, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the M2 monetary aggregate, the US dollar index, the Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX). The USD/RUB currency pair is the main macroeconomic indicator influenced by Russian foreign economic factors: trade balance, inflation, key interest rate, money supply, US dollar index, Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX). In the short term, the connection of the USD/RUB currency pair with the presented macroeconomic indicators has weakened. Therefore, the forecast of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar should be made on the basis of the trend equation. It has been established that, in the short term, the USD/RUB currency pair has the potential to decline, which is negative for exporters, but positive for the real incomes of the country's population. The sharp decline in the USD/RUB currency pair in recent months has been caused by the regulatory and legal currency regulation in the Russian Federation. It implies the following measures: restrictions on the issuance of US dollars from foreign currency deposits and accounts of citizens, on the sale of US dollars by banks to the public, on the transfer of US dollars abroad; high commissions for the purchase of US dollars on the stock exchange; restrictions on short sales of currencies on the stock exchange; mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters; the use of Russian rubles in settlements for natural gas supplied to unfriendly countries; tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The cancellation of these regulatory and legal measures of currency regulation will return the long-term trend of weakening of the Russian ruble against the US dollar.