Lower Premiums Research Articles

Superior forecasting with simple AR(1) models in a low-volatility environment: evidence from the CAT bond market

AbstractIn the recent literature on asset pricing, advanced machine learning methods often show better predictive quality than simple linear regression models. In this context, machine learning prediction models for bond premiums are usually based on those predictors that have proved to be particularly relevant in explanatory models. However, these models do not take into account that historical premiums of assets with particularly low premium volatilities already contain a high degree of information about future premiums. With this in mind, we consider catastrophe bonds, whose secondary market premiums exhibit low volatility, and include historical premiums in our forecasting models in addition to the usual predictors. In this way, the predictive accuracy of the linear regression is significantly increased and is comparable to that of advanced machine learning methods. Remarkably, a simple linear AR(1) model without additional predictors achieves the highest predictive performance.

Factors afffecting on the growth assets of sharia life insurance companies in Indonesia

Purpose - The objective of this research is to present a summary and examination of the impact of investment returns, claims, and premiums on asset growth in Indonesian sharia life insurance firms from 2018 to 2022.Method - This study uses quantitative methods. The study's population consists of sharia life insurance companies that are registered with the OJK, and its sample consists of seven such companies that provide complete financial reports through 2022. Panel data analysis is the data analysis technique employed in this study, and the Common Effect Model (CEM) was selected using eviws 10.Result - This study provides evidence that premiums and claims have a detrimental effect on Indonesian Islamicic life insurance businesses' asset growth. Low premiums and high claims inhibit asset growth. On the other hand, investment returns have a positive effect, because Islamicic insurance companies gain opportunities for asset growth from investments in various sectors. Therefore, claim management and optimization of investment returns are very important to encourage the growth of company assets.Implication - These findings have implications from the results of this investigation, which show that a company is better and can be considered healthy if its assets are larger.Originality - This study is the first to employ profit-sharing finance as an intervening variable.

Analyzing the Relationship between Agricultural AI Adoption and Government-Subsidized Insurance

Due to the increased unpredictability and severity of weather patterns caused by climate change, traditional farming practices and risk management strategies are becoming increasingly inadequate. In this paper, we explore the literature to understand the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in mitigating climate-related agricultural risks and the pivotal role that public institutions play in encouraging farmers to adopt such technologies. We propose a framework to integrate AI into government-subsidized insurance structures, focusing on reduced premiums through government intervention. We argue that AI’s potential to reduce the uncertainty and severity of climate-induced damages could lower the overall risk profile of insured farmers, thereby justifying lower premiums in the long run. We further discuss the implications of such policies on insurance markets, agricultural sustainability, and global food security. Our initial exploration contributes to the literature by addressing a relatively underexplored intersection of two critical fields—agricultural insurance and artificial intelligence—suggesting directions for future research.

Cost-Associated Unmet Dental, Vision, And Hearing Needs Among Low-Income Medicare Advantage Beneficiaries.

Medicare Advantage (MA) supplemental benefits offered at no or low premiums are a key value proposition for low-income beneficiaries. Despite nearly $20billion in rebate payments to MA plans for funding supplemental benefits, their quality or enrollee access is not monitored. Using 2018-19 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data linked to MA plan data, we found that regardless of plan benefit generosity, low-income beneficiaries were more likely to report dental, vision, and hearing unmet needs because of cost. Enrollment in plans with higher corresponding-year (that is, the same year as unmet need measurement) star ratings was associated with lower dental unmet need. Income-related disparities in dental unmet needs were lower in the highest-rated plans. However, prior-year star ratings that determined plan payments were not associated with unmet needs or disparities in those needs. Policy makers should consider monitoring supplemental benefits for equity and access, and they should assess the value added by quality bonus payments to high-rated plans for beneficiaries' access.

Health insurance plans from NCI-designated public and private cancer centers versus federal health insurance plans.

24 Background: Understanding health insurance plans is crucial for making informed financial decisions and ensuring equitable access to healthcare. While physicians are directly involved in healthcare, the plans available to them are poorly understood. This study compared plans offered at NCI-designated cancer centers with federal plans to better understand and further investigate the differences in beneficiary costs. Methods: We collected data on health plans from 65 cancer centers and federal plans from 5 major insurers by reviewing their websites from 11/2023 - 03/2024. We included up to 3 plans (regardless of insurer) per cancer center and up to 6 federal plans per insurer. We abstracted cost data on premium, deductible, co-pay for physician visits, out-of-pocket (OOP) maximum, and coinsurance for hospitalizations. We compared HMO and PPO plans between public and private cancer centers, as well as with federal plans. Results: We obtained data of 153 plans from 39 public and 26 private cancer centers to compare with 18 federal plans. In the comparison of plans offered at public and private cancer centers, private cancer centers had significantly higher deductible ($597.6 vs $225.9, p=0.03), specialist visit co-pays ($36.1 vs $27.1, p=0.01), and inpatient stay co-insurance ($1281.0 vs $582.9, p=0.02) in HMO plans compared to public cancer centers. For PPO plans, private cancer centers had higher inpatient stay co-insurance ($2,100.5 vs $1,526.3, p=0.03). The premiums of private cancer centers are lower than those in public centers for both HMO plans ($113.5 vs $139.5, p=0.43) and PPO plans ($140.8 vs $190.2, p=0.33), although these differences were not statistically significant. Compared to federal plans, cancer centers plans had significantly higher HMO deductibles ($387.8 vs $100, p=0.02), lower PPO specialist visit co-pays ($30.4 vs $40.5, p=0.05), and lower OOP maximum ($3,823.8 vs $6,554.6, p<0.001) (Table). Conclusions: Our research reveals differences in beneficiary costs between health plans offered by cancer centers and federal plans, as well as among different types of cancer centers. Notably, private cancer centers had higher average costs for deductible, specialist visit, and inpatient stays compared to public cancer centers, likely as a tradeoff to offer a lower premium. These findings underscore the complexities within health plans offered to physicians, emphasizing the necessity for a more comprehensive understanding. Comparison of health plans. Average costs ($) Cancer centers HMO Federal HMO p Cancer Centers PPO Federal PPO p Premium 133.6 425.1 0.1 176.8 259.3 0.1 Deductible 387.8 100 0.02* 906.2 768.2 0.52 Co-pay of PCP visit 20 21.7 0.52 19.7 18.8 0.78 Co-pay of specialist visit 29.4 36.7 0.14 30.4 40.5 0.05* Co-insurance for inpatient stay 955.2 1231.6 0.53 1712 1957.9 0.48 OOP Maximum 3300.2 4416.7 0.24 3823.8 6554.6 <0.001* *p-value < 0.05.

Voluntary private health insurance and cancer screening utilisation in Europe.

Cancer is a leading cause of death in Europe and prevention measures, like screening, are therefore becoming increasingly important. Although European countries provide universal health coverage, including cancer screenings, many people also have private health insurance. The aim of this study is to analyse the relationship between Voluntary private health insurance (VPHI) and cancer screening, specifically breast and colorectal cancer screening. Using data from SHARE, the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, different logistic and multilevel regressions were estimated. The major finding shows a positive correlation between people being screened for cancer and having VPHI. Three conclusions can be drawn: advantageous selection may exist in private health insurance; spillover effects may exist from the public sector into the private sector, which in turn may result in a lower insurance premium; and there may be a perpetuation of inequalities in health service utilisation. Several policy implications can be drawn from this result, but the most relevant concerns narrowing the inequities that could potentially arise between those who have private health insurance and those who do not.

Financial Sustainability of Social Insurance: The Case of Korean Workers’ Compensation Insurance and Possibility of Triple Moral Hazard

Abstract This study examines the economic stability of Korean Workers’ Compensation Insurance (WCI), highlighting the system’s vulnerability to triple moral hazard. Korean WCI features more generous worker compensation, lower employer premiums, and more active government involvement in accident prevention in addition to a higher industrial accident rate, compared to the system in Germany and Japan. The negotiation process of the WCI among workers, employers, and insurance managers often prioritizes short-term benefits, undermining long-term financial health. Workers seek greater compensation, employers push for lower premiums, and insurance managers may prioritize collective interests, exacerbating the system’s economic instability. Over recent years, applications for occupational disease recognition have surged, and premium rates have decreased, indicating increasing strain. To mitigate these issues, the study proposes enhancing transparency and rationality, involving non-political experts in decision-making, and clearly defining the government’s role in managing WCI. These measures aim to balance stakeholder interests and ensure the WCI system’s sustainability for future generations.

Dimensions of micro-insurance and their relationship to achieving insurance coverage / applied research in the Iraqi general insurance company

The research aims to determine the nature relationship Link Between dimensions Microinsurance represented by (low-income groups, reasonable cost, low premium, low coverage) in the dependent variable insurance coverage with its two dimensions represented by (access, use), and the degree of arrangement of those dimensions according to their priorities, Incarnated The research problem that the researcher came up with during field visits to the researched company in the training phase, and reviewing the approved insurance programs, it was noted that the company lacks insurance programs and production plans, marketing documents that cover risks to low-income groups, and the lack of a tool that enables the insurance service to reach all segments of society. The descriptive analytical approach was adopted, and in light of it, the questionnaire was prepared as a main tool in obtaining data from the research community, which numbered (55) people who were in Levels Administrative (senior, middle, and executive) departments in the Iraqi General Insurance Company were tested with a set of appropriate statistical methods. The data was analyzed based on ready-made statistical programs (Spss v.28) to calculate (weighted arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Pearson correlation coefficient, a test z), and the research reached a set of results, the most prominent of which was: There is a positive correlation strong and moral Between the dimensions of a For micro insurance Combined and insurance coverage, Its value reached(0.815).

Medicare Advantage Enrollment Following the 21st Century Cures Act in Adults With End-Stage Renal Disease

In January 2021, under the 21st Century Cures Act, Medicare beneficiaries with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were permitted to enroll in private Medicare Advantage (MA) plans for the first time. In the first year of the Cures Act, there was a 51% increase in MA enrollment among beneficiaries with ESRD. To examine changes in MA enrollment among Medicare beneficiaries with ESRD in the first 2 years of the Cures Act and, among beneficiaries newly enrolled in MA in 2021, to assess the proportion of beneficiaries who switched MA contracts and how the characteristics of contracts changed. This cross-sectional, population-based time-trend study was conducted from January 2020 to December 2022. Eligible participants included Medicare beneficiaries with ESRD. Data analysis was conducted from August 2023 to March 2024. Enrollment in Medicare during the first 2 years of the 21st Century Cures Act. The primary outcomes were enrollment in MA, switching between traditional Medicare (TM) and MA, and switching between MA contracts from 2021 to 2022. There were 718 252 unique Medicare beneficiaries with ESRD between 2020 and 2022 (1 659 652 beneficiary-years). In 2022, there were 583 203 beneficiaries with ESRD (mean [SD] age, 64.9 [14.1] years, 245 153 female (42.0%); 197 988 Black [34.0%]; 47 912 Hispanic [8.2%]). The proportion of beneficiaries with ESRD who were enrolled in MA increased from 25.1% (118 601 of 472 234 beneficiaries) in January 2020 to 43.1% (211 896 of 491 611 beneficiaries) in December 2022. Increases in MA enrollment were larger in the first year of the Cures Act (12.6 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI 12.3-12.8 pp) compared with the second year (5.7 pp; 95% CI, 5.5-5.9 pp). Changes between December 2020 and December 2022 ranged between 49.3% for Asian or Pacific Islander beneficiaries (difference = 13.0 pp; 95% CI, 12.2-13.8 pp) and 207.2% for American Indian or Alaska Native beneficiaries (difference = 17.0 pp; 95% CI, 15.3-18.7 pp). Changes were high among partial dual-eligible (difference = 35.5 pp; 95% CI, 34.9-36.1 pp; 134.7% increase) and fully dual-eligible beneficiaries (difference = 22.8 pp, 95% CI, 22.5-23.1 pp; 98.0% increase). Among 53 366 beneficiaries enrolled in MA in 2021, 37 439 (70.2%) remained in their contract, 11 730 (22.0%) switched contracts, and 4197 (7.9%) switched to TM in 2022. Compared with the characteristics of MA enrollees with ESRD in 2021, those in 2022 were more likely to be in contracts with lower premiums and with a rating of 4.5 stars or higher. In this cross-sectional time-trend study of Medicare beneficiaries with ESRD, MA enrollment continued to increase in the second year of the Cures Act, particularly among racially or ethnically minoritized individuals and dual eligible populations. These findings suggest need to monitor the equity of care for beneficiaries with ESRD as they enroll in managed care plans.

Farmers’ Awareness and Approach to Agricultural Insurance as a Risk Mitigation Strategy

This study aims to explore the development of agriculture insurance from farmers’ perspective in a developing country such as Albania and to identify the reasons why farmers choose to be insured or not. Moreover, the paper aims to evaluate the willingness of farmers to choose agricultural insurance as the best method to reduce agricultural risks based on the offer of the insurance market in the agricultural sector. For this purpose, the study employs primary data gathered from 452 questionnaires distributed in four regions with the highest agriculture contribution and the highest number of farmers in Albania (Tirana, Dibër, Korçë and Fier). The results indicate that Albanian farmers, despite being aware of the various risks involved in agricultural production, opt not to purchase insurance policies and instead choose to self-insure. Analysis shows that this choice is influenced by factors such as lack of information, price, and trust in insurance providers. Moreover, the study points out that farmers are willing to pay a low premium that does not match the price set by insurance companies for this service.

Health Insurance, Medicine, and Society in Taiwan: Chinese Authoritarianism, Taiwanese Ethnicities, and Global Actuarial Science

This article explores the history of the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang KMT) government’s expansion of health insurance in Taiwan from 1950 to the 2010s through the lens of ethnicity, politics and medicine. I argue that the KMT party-state’s expansion of health insurance privileged government employees who were the core supporters of the ruling party. By comparing the history of the insurance programs for government employees and laborers, the article makes the case that KMT provided better coverage, lower premiums, and less medical gatekeeping for Chinese waisheng government employees who fled to Taiwan with the KMT than for ordinary Taiwanese bensheng laborers. Global actuarial science experts from the United Nations International Labor Organization also buttressed such a discriminatory process. This China-centered approach towards universalizing healthcare on the island became increasingly challenged by provincial legislators, labor activists, and the emerging political opposition that promoted local Taiwanese concerns on healthcare equity and access. This article concludes that this dual process of KMT’s population management and leveraging of United Nations actuarial expertise as the Republic of China became symbolic of the bio-geopolitics that animated the history and development of health insurance in Taiwan.

Contract Termination and Insurance Enrollment Among Medicare Advantage Beneficiaries

Approximately one-fifth of Medicare Advantage (MA) contracts terminated their participation in the MA program between 2011 and 2020. Little is known about subsequent insurance choices following a termination. To examine the insurance destinations of MA enrollees and the characteristics of enrollees who switch into traditional Medicare (TM) after a contract termination. This cross-sectional study examined MA program data of MA beneficiaries in the Medicare Master Beneficiary File from 2016 to 2018. Statistical analysis was performed from June 2023 to April 2024. Beneficiary characteristics, including age, sex, race and ethnicity, dual eligibility; hospital, nursing home, and home health utilization; and contract characteristics, including plan type, vertical integration, premium, and MA star rating. The main outcome was switching to TM in the year immediately after termination. We also evaluated the characteristics of contracts among those who remained in MA. A total of 117 681 beneficiaries were included in this analysis (64 654 [54.9%] female; 409 [0.4%] American Indian or Alaska Native; 2817 [2.4%] Asian; 76 725 [16.8%] Black; 11 131 [9.5%] Hispanic; 81 226 [69.0%] White; and 2373 [2.0%] other race or ethnicity; 27 078 [23.0%] dual-eligible; mean [SD] age, 71.2 [10.4] years). Following a contract termination, 20.1% (95% CI, 19.9%-20.4%) of enrollees switched to TM, including 32.7% (95% CI, 32.4%-33.1%) of dual-eligible beneficiaries and 16.4% (95% CI, 16.2%-16.5%) of non-dual-eligible beneficiaries. In nonterminated contracts, the concurrent switch rate was 6.2% (95% CI, 6.2%-6.2%) for all, 10.4% (95% CI, 10.4%-10.4%) for dual-eligible beneficiaries and 5.1% (95% CI, 5.1%-5.1%) for non-dual-eligible enrollees. The highest switch rates to TM were among Black enrollees (32.3% [95% CI, 31.7%-32.8%]) and those with prior use of hospital (31.3% [95% CI, 30.7%-31.9%], nursing home, 41.4% [95% CI, 40.4%-42.4%], or home health care (28.3% [95% CI, 27.4%-29.2%]). Beneficiaries who stayed in MA selected higher-rated star plans (mean posttermination contract star rating of 3.8 [95% CI, 3.8-3.8] stars compared with 3.3 [95% CI, 3.3-3.3] stars in the terminated year), but did not pay more in monthly premiums with 66.5% (95% CI, 66.2%-66.8%) paying the same or lower premiums. In this cross-sectional study, 1 in 5 MA beneficiaries switched to TM after a contract termination, with Black beneficiaries and those with more intensive health needs having the highest switch rates. These findings highlight the need to examine consequences of contract terminations and subsequent insurance destinations on access to care and health outcomes, especially among those with marginalized race and ethnicity, those who are dual-eligible, and beneficiaries with higher health care needs.

Ambiguity, limited market participation, and the cross-sectional stock return

Using expected utility under uncertain probability theory (EUUP, Izhakian, 2017, 2020), we study whether the ambiguity related to individual stocks is priced in the Chinese A-share market and the mechanism behind the ambiguity premium phenomenon. Theoretically, when the asset price is within a specific range, ambiguity-averse investors refrain from participating in trading. As asset ambiguity increases, high ambiguity-averse investors exit the market, with those with lower aversion remaining in the market (limited market participation phenomenon). Investors who remain in the market due to lower ambiguity aversion are willing to accept a low ambiguity premium. Empirically, we measure monthly ambiguity using the volatility of daily stock return distributions within a month and find the following: (1) The equal-weighted average returns of the most ambiguous portfolios (top 20%) are significantly lower than those of the least ambiguous portfolios (bottom 20%). (2) Ambiguity still significantly negatively affects the cross-sectional stock return after controlling for common firm characteristics. (3) The higher the ambiguity, the lower the future trading activity, supporting our theoretical predictions. These findings reveal the mechanism of the negative ambiguity premium in the Chinese A-share market. This study provides new ideas for building a factor-pricing model suitable for the A-share market and a fresh perspective for preventing systemic financial risk.

Cross-section without factors: a string model for expected returns

Many asset pricing models assume that expected returns are driven by common factors. We formulate a model where returns are driven by a string, and no-arbitrage restricts each expected return to capture the asset's granular exposure to all other asset returns: a correlation premium. The model predicts fresh properties for big stocks, which display higher connectivity in bad times, but also work as correlation hedges: they contribute to a negative fraction of the correlation premium, and portfolios that are more exposed to them command a lower premium. The string model performs at least as well as many existing linear factor models.

A Tailored Derivative Instrument to Mitigate the Price-and-Quantity Risk Faced by Wind Power Companies

The intermittent nature of wind generation combined with the well-known volatility of electricity spot prices expose Wind Power Companies (WPCs) committed to long-term forward contracts to the so-called price-and-quantity risk. Several instruments were designed in the past years to mitigate this risk exposure. However, most of them were mainly constructed to cope with only one of its parts, i.e., price or generation uncertainty. To tackle this issue, in this work, we propose a tailored derivative instrument for WPCs leveraging the principles of options and renewable indexes. The effectiveness and attractiveness of the proposed instrument, referred to as the Wind-Indexed Option (WInd-Op), are evaluated with real data from the Brazilian sector through an equilibrium setup. We show that Solar Power Companies (SPCs) can be relevant candidates to back these derivatives. Additionally, when compared to the traditional put-and-call options as a benchmark, results indicate that the equilibrium obtained with the new derivative exhibits a significantly higher traded volume (2.9 times greater), lower premium prices (54.7% lower), and greater welfare gain (2.7 greater).

High deductible health plans and survival among cancer survivors.

11005 Background: High deductible health plans (HDHP) enable lower premiums at the expense of potentially high out-of-pocket costs. They are associated with more advanced cancer stage diagnoses and delayed or forgone care among cancer survivors. However, it is unknown how HDHPs are associated with survival among cancer survivors. Methods: Individuals ages 18-84 years with non-Medicaid insurance were identified from the 2011-2018 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) with linked mortality files from the National Death Index. HDHP status was defined by the NHIS as a yearly deductible ≥$1200-1350 for an individual or ≥2400-$2700 for a family (values depend on survey year with increases over time). Cox proportional hazards models using age as the time scale were utilized to determine: 1) association of HDHP status with overall survival (OS) and cancer survival (CS; i.e., freedom from cancer death) among cancer survivors, and 2) how associations differed for survivors compared to those without a cancer history. Models accounted for the NHIS survey design and survey weights and were adjusted for insurance status, marital status, sex, comorbidities, education, income, national region, and cancer site and time since cancer diagnosis (if applicable). Sensitivity analyses adjusting for age at cancer diagnosis were performed using time since diagnosis as the time scale. Results: A total of 147,254 respondents were identified, 5.9% of whom were cancer survivors. 25.6% of survivors and 28.5% of individuals without a cancer history reported being insured by a HDHP at the time of NHIS participation. HDHP status was associated with worse OS (HR: 1.46, 95% CI = 1.19 - 1.79) and CS (HR: 1.34, 95% CI = 1.01 - 1.77) among cancer survivors overall in the adjusted model. HDHP status was additionally associated with worse OS among the following subgroups of cancer survivors: non-Hispanic White (HR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.16 - 1.82), income > 400% federal poverty level (HR: 1.65, 95% CI = 1.16 - 2.36), college (HR: 1.47, 95% CI = 1.07 – 2.00) or high school (HR: 1.59, 95% CI = 1.19 - 2.12) education, and multiple cancers (HR: 1.58, 95% CI = 1.06 - 2.36), without clear patterns by sex, comorbidities, insurance, and cancer site. Sensitivity analyses provided similar results. In contrast, among adults without a history of cancer at the time of NHIS participation, HDHP status was not significantly associated with OS (HR: 1.08, 0.96 - 1.21; Pinteraction < .01) or CS (HR: 0.90, 95% CI = 0.70 - 1.14; Pinteraction < .01). Conclusions: This nationwide population-based analysis suggests that HDHPs are associated with both worse overall survival and cancer survival among cancer survivors but are not associated with survival in adults without a history of cancer. HDHPs may financially disincentivize cancer survivors from utilizing necessary medical care to optimize survivorship thereby compromising mortality and cure. Policy changes to limit the proliferation of these plans may improve cancer outcomes.

Informativeness of Internal Control Weakness Disclosure on Acquirers’ M&A Decisions

SYNOPSIS We empirically examine the relevance of the disclosure of internal control weaknesses (ICWs) by target firms for acquirers in making their merger-and-acquisition (M&A) decisions. We find that acquirers offer lower premiums for targets that disclose ICWs (ICW targets) before acquisition in comparison with targets that disclose effective internal controls (non-ICW targets). We also find that acquirers offer less cash (versus stock) for ICW targets in comparison with non-ICW targets. Overall, results indicate that ICW disclosure by targets is informative to acquirers. Practically, we contribute to the literature by identifying the relevance of ICW disclosure as a reliable public source of information that can help mitigate the negative impact on acquirers acquiring target firms with poor financial reporting quality. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G34; D81; M41; M4.

Does environmental, social and governance performance affect acquisition premium?

PurposeFrom a target perspective, this paper aims to examine the impact of environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transaction valuations.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a sample of 629 international transactions conducted between 2002 and 2020. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was applied by using ESG aggregate score and the three ESG pillars: environment, social and governance.FindingsThis paper finds that the ESG performance of targets has a negative and significant impact on acquisition premiums. However, this paper finds that targets receive lower premiums by increasing their ESG score, suggesting that targets would do better to focus on ESG to increase shareholder wealth. Thus, results of this paper support the view that ESG-focused firms create shareholder value through the M&A process. Furthermore, results of this paper indicate that environmental and social aspects of ESG drive the acquisition premium. The governance score does not seem to be related to acquisition premiums.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first study to assess whether ESG performance impacts the valuation of M&A transactions by decomposing ESG into its three components.

Air pollution and stock returns: The cash flow risk channel

This paper provides a novel explanation regarding the phenomenon that high local air pollution forecasts a low risk premium at the firm-level. Using Chinese stock market data, we show that there is a negative correlation between air pollution and stock return. Further empirical analysis reveals that pollution affects the stock market by changing the covariance between cash flows and the aggregate profitability shock. This result can be illustrated by a neoclassical q-theory model with air pollution as a factor affecting production.

Technological Innovation to Increase The Cropping Index of Rice on Rainfed Fields At Labuhanbatu Regency

The study of technological innovations to increase the cropping index in Rainfed Rice Fields aims to increase farmers’ knowledge and skills regarding rice farming so that their rice fields can be planted with rice more than once a year. This activity was conducted in Selat Beting Village, Panai Tengah District, Labuhan Batu Regency in 2021. The assessment was carried out in one area, consisting of the Field Laboratory (LL) location and the Field School (SL) location. The Field Laboratory is a study area covering an area of 5 ha. The treatmen use in this study was variety, seeding methods, planting methods, fertilizer dosage and pest control.The results of this study shown that the production of demo-farm area was 6.65 t/ha, while non-demo-farm only produced 4.76 t/ha. Farmers in Selat Beting village can plant rainfed rice at least twice a year. Selat Beting Village farmers have been introduced to rice farming business insurance (AUTP). Farmers who try to insure their crops do not mind because they pay very low premiums and are affordable for farmers. Based on rainfall patterns in Labuhanbatu Regency, farmers can plant rice at least twice a year, where in certain months there is rainfall, but it is not sufficient to irrigate the fields, therefore they must be assisted with shallow well pumps.