Low Occupational Level Research Articles

Addressing the occupancy problem of Soekarno-Hatta Airport rail link during its first five years of operation

Airport rail links have long been acknowledged as a crucial component of the modern transportation system. Their attractiveness among air travellers stems from their convenience, speed, and environmental benefits. Despite their advantages, these services often face several occupancy problems that hinder their effectiveness and efficiency. Soekarno-Hatta airport rail link’s operation in 2018-2022 has been marked by low occupancy. This study aims to assess the realisations of several critical attributes of a successful airport rail link service according to TRB studies in the context of the Soekarno-Hatta airport rail link. In this context, it was shown that only four of the seven key attributes have met the minimal level to attain such goals. Despite numerous strategies undertaken during the period, which coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic, most fall under the operating or service adjustments category. The minimal realisations of the seven key attributes confirm the low occupancy levels, yet efforts to increase the ridership were limited during the pandemic. These findings provide avenues for a more successful transfer of operations from PT Railink to PT Kereta Commuter Indonesia with the clear intention of boosting the rail link’s ridership. Alongside several expansion plans by the Directorate General of Railways, the findings shall help public policymakers promote a modal shift and pave the way towards a broader integration with other modes of public transportation in the Jabodetabek region.

Modeling the Potential for Rural Tourism Development via GWR and MGWR in the Context of the Analysis of the Rural Lodging Supply in Extremadura, Spain

The harmonious development of tourism activity in rural areas must be based on effective tourism plans adapted to the territory. To achieve this, it is necessary that the tourist potential of the area be taken into consideration. However, the tourist attraction capacity is not always considered, which has led to a significant increase in the number of rural lodgings. This has caused strong imbalances in Extremadura, Spain. On the basis of this premise, in this research study, we aim to determine whether there is an adjustment between the main factors that attract rural tourists to the study area. To determine this, we make use of different geostatistical procedures based on spatially weighted regression models (GWR and MGWR). A comparative study is conducted using these models, on the basis of which it is deduced that one type of regression offers advantages over the other. However, the results show that neither regression models can explain the presence of rural accommodation in places that do not meet the requirements demanded by tourists. This fact shows that the increase in the supply of rural accommodation follows unsuitable patterns in some cases, which translates into numerous problems, such as low occupancy levels. In this study, it is concluded that there is no strong relationship between the attractiveness of a territory and its volume of supply, highlighting the need to rethink tourism plans in order to adjust them relative to reality.

Effect of long-term cochlear implant use on education and occupation: A systematic review

Abstract Purpose: Cochlear implant (CI) technology has improved significantly positively impacting the quality-of-life of the users. Over the past few decades. Nevertheless, the results of the studies on the academic performance of CI users are contradictory in the literature. Aim and objective: The current study aimed to systematically review the articles published in the past 10 years (2011–2021) on the effect of the long-term use of CIs on education and occupational outcomes. Method: The reviewers selected 10 articles from 11,037 in various databases in this systematic review. Results: The review showed mixed results from the selected studies. Some research found that CIs users did worse than their typical peers. In contrast, a few other studies found that CI recipients performed equal to or better than their typical peers or the general population. CI recipients have considerably lower occupational levels than the general population. Many factors could influence educational and occupational outcomes in long-term CI users. Conclusion: Even though there are varied results regarding educational outcomes in long-term CI users, some studies showed good academic performance in CI recipients. However, there is a need for more studies to understand better the factors that affect the educational and occupational abilities of long-term CI users.

The cost overrun of depopulation to improve energy efficiency in buildings: A case study in the Mediterranean Region

The implementation of energy efficiency measures in public buildings is a complex process that hinges on multiple factors. A factor relevant for some European regions is their ongoing depopulation. In these regions, building energy retrofitting presents additional challenges to those in urban areas, such as over-dimensioned public buildings and low occupancy levels. This work analyses these challenges in the province of Teruel (Spain), one of the regions with the highest depopulation levels in Spain. To this end, a methodology has been developed to assess the effect of depopulation on the cost of upgrading public buildings to improve their energy efficiency. The results show that the investment required per inhabitant for building retrofitting is approximately four times as high in depopulated areas as in urban areas. Furthermore, the low occupancy levels of public buildings can triple the payback time of some energy efficiency measures. To overcome these barriers, in addition to specific policies for depopulated areas, energy planning is essential. An adequate action plan, combining the implementation of energy efficiency measures and the integration of renewable energies in buildings, is the most effective tool to improve the sustainability of public buildings circumventing the barriers created by depopulation.

Designing a large-scale track-based monitoring program to detect changes in species distributions in arid Australia.

Monitoring trends in animal populations in arid regions is challenging due to remoteness and low population densities. However, detecting species' tracks or signs is an effective survey technique for monitoring population trends across large spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we developed a simulation framework to evaluate the performance of alternative track-based monitoring designs at detecting change in species distributions in arid Australia. We collated presence-absence records from 550 2-ha track-based plots for 11 vertebrates over 13years and fitted ensemble species distribution models to predict occupancy in 2018. We simulated plausible changes in species' distributions over the next 15years and, with estimates of detectability, simulated monitoring to evaluate the statistical power of three alternative monitoring scenarios: (1) where surveys were restricted to existing 2-ha plots, (2) where surveys were optimized to target all species equally, and (3) where surveys were optimized to target two species of conservation concern. Across all monitoring designs and scenarios, we found that power was higher when detecting increasing occupancy trends compared to decreasing trends owing to the relatively low levels of initial occupancy. Our results suggest that surveying 200 of the existing plots annually (with a small subset resurveyed twice within a year) will have at least an 80% chance of detecting 30% declines in occupancy for four of the five invasive species modeled and one of the six native species. This increased to 10 of the 11 species assuming larger (50%) declines. When plots were positioned to target all species equally, power improved slightly for most compared to the existing survey network. When plots were positioned to target two species of conservation concern (crest-tailed mulgara and dusky hopping mouse), power to detect 30% declines increased by 29% and 31% for these species, respectively, at the cost of reduced power for the remaining species. The effect of varying survey frequency depended on its trade-off with the number of sites sampled and requires further consideration. Nonetheless, our research suggests that track-based surveying is an effective and logistically feasible approach to monitoring broad-scale occupancy trends in desert species with both widespread and restricted distributions.

Social determinants of health pave the path to maternal deaths in rural Sri Lanka: reflections from social autopsies

BackgroundEnding preventable maternal deaths remains a challenge in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Society perceived causes and real-life observations can reveal the intangible causes of maternal deaths irrespective of formal maternal death investigations. This study reports complex patterns in which social determinants act towards paving the path to maternal deaths in a rural Sri Lankan setting.MethodsWe conducted social autopsies for 15/18 maternal deaths (in two consecutive years during the past decade) in district A (pseudonymized). In-depth interviews of 43 respondents and observations were recorded in the same field sites. During thematic analysis, identified themes were further classified according to the World Health Organization framework for social determinants of health (SDH). The patterns between themes and clustering of social determinants based on the type of maternal deaths were analyzed using mixed methods.ResultsDiscernable social causes underpinned 12 out of 15 maternal deaths. Extreme poverty, low educational level, gender inequity, and elementary or below-level occupations of the husband were the characteristic structural determinants of most deceased families. Social isolation was the commonest leading cause manifesting as a reason for many other social factors and resulted in poor social support paving the path to most maternal deaths. A core set of poverty, social isolation, and poor social support acted together with alcohol usage, and violence leading to suicides. These core determinants mediating through neglected self-health care led to delay in health-seeking. Deficits in quality of care and neglect were noted at health institutions and the field.ConclusionSocial autopsies of maternal deaths revealed complex social issues and social determinants of health leading to maternal deaths in Sri Lanka, indicating the need for a socially sensitive health system.

Optimization of service frequency and vehicle size for automated bus systems with crowding externalities and travel time stochasticity

Public transport is considered as one of the most suitable candidates to benefit from autonomous driving technologies. In this research, we develop a mathematical modeling framework to optimize service frequency and vehicle size for automated bus systems, while accounting for both user and operator costs. We explicitly consider travel time stochasticity, time-dependent passenger flows, vehicle capacity limitations (extra waiting time due to denied boarding), and in-vehicle discomfort externalities for both sitting and standing passengers at a microscopic level. We attempt to provide a thorough assessment of the service and cost implications of the deployment of automated buses. Hence, a broad range of experiments are simulated by combining different deployment cases: (i) vehicle technology (human-driven or automated vehicles), (ii) travel time assumptions (deterministic or stochastic travel times), and (iii) crowding externalities (considering or ignoring in-vehicle crowding costs). The model applicability is assessed on two real-world bus corridors in Regensburg (Germany) and Santiago (Chile). Results show that, with crowding externalities, optimal vehicle size is increased at a similar rate for both human-driven and automated bus services, whereas optimal service frequency is increased at a higher rate for automated buses. Thus, under optimal levels of supply, automated vehicles are operated with lower occupancy levels than human-driven vehicles, increasing the quality of service. Besides, the deployment of automated bus systems can significantly alleviate or eliminate denied boardings. The effects of automation on travel time volatility and dwell time regularity are studied. The consideration of stochastic travel times increases optimal frequencies at a higher rate for automated services relative to human-driven vehicles. Interestingly, we find that even though the operator benefits from automation are more pronounced in high-income countries (due to a greater potential for human driving cost savings), the final outcome is counterbalanced by the actual public transport demand level, because large user cost savings from automation are reachable in crowded routes even in situations in which labor costs are lower (as in developing countries).

Carpal Tunnel Syndrome and Ulnar Nerve Entrapment Are Associated with Impaired Psychological Health in Adults as Appraised by Their Increased Use of Psychotropic Medication.

We aimed to study psychological health, as approximated by the use of psychotropic drugs, in a population diagnosed and surgically treated for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) or ulnar nerve entrapment (UNE), or both, also considering the demographic and socioeconomic factors of the individuals. Linking data from five large national registers, use of psychotropics (at least one dispensation during the first year after the surgery or the baseline date) was examined in around 5.8 million people 25–80 years old residing in Sweden 2010. Among these individuals, 9728 (0.17%), 890 (0.02%) and 149 (0.00%) were identified as diagnosed and surgically treated for CTS, UNE, or both, respectively. As much as 28%, 34% and 36% in each group, respectively, used psychotropic drugs, compared with 19% in the general population. Regression analyses showed a general higher risk for use of psychotropics related to these nerve compression disorders, to higher age, being a woman, and having low income or low occupational qualification level. Individuals born outside of Sweden had a lower risk. We conclude that surgically treated individuals with a nerve compression disorder have an increased risk of impaired psychological health. Caregivers should be aware of the risk and provide necessary attention.

Knowledge about Dementia and its Associated Factors: Study among the Middle-aged Population in Indonesia

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a general term for loss of memory, language, problem solving, and other thinking skills that can interfere with daily life. Dementia is generally experienced by the older people. Nearly 10 million new cases of dementia reported each year, and more than 50% of dementia patients live in low and middle-income countries. With these potentially increasing number of dementia cases, accurate knowledge about dementia is essential for the community as it could be beneficial for the quality of care and reducing its progression. AIM: This study aimed to assess knowledge about dementia in the middle-aged age group and to determine the sociodemographic factors associated with knowledge about dementia in Indonesia. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey targeted the middle-aged population (40–59 years old), using an online questionnaire examining sociodemographic characteristics (age, gender, occupation), living arrangements, and the Dementia Knowledge Assessment Scale. RESULTS: A total of 1147 respondents were examined, revealing that more than 67% of the participants had poor knowledge about dementia. We revealed that female gender, younger age, and higher occupational level were significantly associated with good knowledge about dementia in various subscales. Interestingly, the living arrangements showed no significant association with knowledge about dementia in any subscale. CONCLUSION: The results emphasize the importance of intensive public health awareness to improve public knowledge about dementia in Indonesia, specifically targeting men and older individuals, as well as those with lower occupational levels.

The prevalence of telework under Covid-19 in Canada

PurposeThis study investigates the determinants of teleworking before and during COVID-19 in Canada. It explores the extent of telework adoption across industrial sectors, as well as the long-term impacts of large-scale adoption of teleworking on urban travel demand and the dwindling demand for commercial real estate in downtowns.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from a survey of business establishments, this study employs data visualization techniques to illustrate how telework adoption evolved during the early stages of the COVID-19 lockdown. The study also estimates Logit models to explore the determinants of telework before and during the pandemic using a subsample from the Canadian labor force survey.FindingsThe study found that telework adoption reached a peak in March and April of 2020 when almost 40% of the workers in Canada were teleworking. Only 12% of employees reported teleworking before the pandemic. The adoption of teleworking was far more pronounced amongst firms that use information and communication technologies (ICTs) extensively. Teleworking appears to be far more frequent among university-educated (knowledge economy) workers.Practical implicationsKnowledge economy and highly educated workers, who switched to teleworking during the pandemic at higher rates than workers with less education, are more frequently employed in offices located in the urban core or downtowns. The drastic decline in commuting to the urban core via public transit and record low occupancy levels in downtown office towers suggests that, even if telework prevailed at levels much lower than those observed during March and April of 2020, landlords holding large portfolios of commercial real estate must prepare to cope with the lower demand for commercial real estate. This is especially significant when commercial leases come up for renewal in the next few years. In addition, governments struggling to address traffic congestion by spending hundreds of billions of dollars on transport and transit infrastructure might want to promote teleworking as a means of reducing travel demands and costly infrastructure expenditures.Social implicationsTeleworking has partially eroded the boundaries between work and home by enabling millions to continue being productive while working from home. However, teleworking would require new norms and rules to maintain a work-life balance. This change requires workers and employers to cooperate.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that explores the extent of telework adoption during COVID-19 in Canada and the determinants of telework adoption, presenting both employee and firm-level perspectives using Canada-wide representative data.

What can hotels learn from the last recovery? Examining hotel occupancy rate and the guest experience

With a longitudinal dataset merging hotel performance and guest survey insights, this study examines the impact of hotel occupancy rates on the guest experience. Findings revealed a non-constant effect of hotel occupancy on the guest experience. Specifically, at low occupancy levels, the hotel occupancy rate was positively related to the overall guest experience due to an improvement in the environmental vibe. Conversely, at high occupancy levels, the hotel occupancy rate was negatively related to the overall guest experience, as high occupancy diminished guest experiences’ during service interactions. Findings from this research make notable contributions to theory, presenting a fuller account of the complex relationship between hotel occupancy on the guest experience. In addition, these results are practically relevant, shedding light on how hotels can prepare for the post-COVID occupancy rebound.

Deficits in attention, motor control and perception from childhood to age 30 years: prospective case–control study of outcome predictors

ObjectiveInvestigate predictors of adverse outcome in children with and without attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) combined with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) at 6 years of age.DesignProspective population-based cohort study.SettingWestern Sweden.ParticipantsFrom a screening-based...

A numerical evaluation of a novel recovery fresh air heat pump concept for a generic electric bus.

Since the outbreak of the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, public transportation networks have faced unprecedented challenges and have looked for practical solutions to address the rising safety concerns. It is deemed that in confined spaces, operating heating units (and cooling) in non-re-circulation mode (i. e., all-fresh air mode) could reduce the airborne transmission of this infectious disease, by reducing the density of the pathogen and exposure time. However, this will expectedly increase the energy demand and reduce the driving range of electric buses. To tackle both the airborne transmission and energy efficiency issues, in this paper a novel recovery heat pump concept, operating in all-fresh air mode, was proposed. The novelty of this concept lies in its potential to be applied to already manufactured/in-service heat pump units as it does not require any additional components or need for redesigning the heating systems. In this concept, the cabin exhaust air is directed to pass through the evaporator of the heat pump system to recover part of the waste heat from the cabin and to improve the efficiency of the system. In this paper, a 0D/1D coupled model of a generic single-deck cabin and a heat pump system was developed in the Simulink environment of MATLAB (R2020b) software. The model was run in two different modes, namely the all-fresh air (as a baseline and a recovery heat pump concepts), and the air re-circulation mode (as a conventional heat pump concept with a 50% re-circulation ratio). The performance of these concepts was investigated to evaluate how an all-fresh air policy could affect the performance of the system, as well as the energy-saving potential of the proposed recovery concept. The performance of the system was studied under different ambient temperatures of −5 °C, 0 °C, and 5 °C, and for low and moderate occupancy levels. Results show that implementing the all-fresh air policy in the recovery and baseline concepts significantly improved the ventilation rate per person by at least 102% and at most 125%, compared to the air-re-circulating heat pump. Moreover, adopting the recovery concept reduced the power demand by at least 8% and at most 11%, compared to the baseline all-fresh air heat pump, for the selected fan and blower flow rates. The presented results in this paper along with the applicability of this concept to in-service mobile heat pumps could make it a feasible, practical, and quick trade-off solution to help the bus operators to protect people and improve the energy efficiency of their service.

Non cognitive skills and childcare attendance

In this paper, we analyze the impact of formal childcare attendance at ages 0–2 on children’s attitudes toward schooling and on social behavior at the end of the subjects’ first year of primary school and at the end of high school. We compare children who attended formal childcare with children who were looked after at home, but who otherwise shared similar characteristics, both in terms of family characteristics and in terms of the probability of having access to formal childcare in Italy, where the service is rationed. We find that having attended formal childcare significantly improves school readiness and social behavior in elementary school but that this impact disappears in high school. The effects are larger for boys and for children of mothers with lower educational attainment and of fathers in low-level occupations.

Assessing carnivore spatial co-occurrence and temporal overlap in the face of human interference in a semiarid forest.

Apex predators drive top-down effects in ecosystems and the loss of such species can trigger mesopredator release. This ecological process has been well documented in human-modified small areas, but for management and conservation of ecological communities, it is important to know which human factors affect apex predator occurrence and which mediate mesopredators release at large scales. We hypothesized that mesopredators would avoid spatial and temporal overlap with the apex predator, the puma; but that human perturbations (i.e., cattle raising and trophy hunting) would dampen top-down effects and mediate habitat use. We installed 16 camera traps in each of 45, 10 × 10 km grid cells in the Caldén forest region of central Argentina resulting in 706 total stations covering 61,611 km2 . We used single-season occupancy and two-species co-occurrence models and calculated the species interaction factor (SIF) to explore the contributions of habitat, biotic, and anthropic variables in explaining co-occurrence between carnivore pairs. We also used kernel density estimation techniques to analyze temporal overlap in activity patterns of the carnivore guild. We found that puma habitat use increased with abundance of large prey and with proximity to protected areas. Geoffroy's cats and skunks spatially avoided pumas and this effect was strong and mediated by distance to protected areas and game reserves, but pumas did not influence pampas fox and pampas cat space use. At medium and low levels of puma occupancy, we found evidence of spatial avoidance between three pairs of mesocarnivores. All predators were mostly nocturnal and crepuscular across seasons and mesopredators showed little consistent evidence of changing activity patterns with varying levels of puma occupancy or human interference. We found potential for mesopredator release at large scale, especially on the spatial niche axis. Our results suggest that a combination of interacting factors, in conjunction with habitat features and intervening human activities, may make mesopredator release unlikely or difficult to discern at broad scales. Overall, we believe that promoting the creation of new protected areas linked by small forest patches would likely lead to increased predator and prey abundances, as well as the interactions among carnivores inside and outside of protected areas.

Does a Slim Body Shape Lead to a Stable Job? Analysis from China's Nonagricultural Labor Market

Based on the integrated data of the China General Social Survey (CGSS) from 2010 to 2017, this study observes that body shape – being overweight or underweight – matters for labor market outcomes. Body shape significantly affects the employment opportunities of Chinese employees, and this effect differs by gender and across the occupational hierarchy. Women face both a slim premium and obesity punishment effects. Slim women, those with normal and lower but not excessively lower weight, are more likely to gain long-term employment contracts in the labor market and face a significantly shorter duration of unemployment, while the opposite is observed for overweight individuals. The relationship between women's body size and employment opportunities also varies with occupational class. The obesity penalty is more pronounced in the higher level occupational class, while the slim premium is more obvious in low level occupations. Occupational segregation further magnifies the impact of body shape on women’s employment. The results suggest that the Chinese labor market is highly demanding regarding women's figures, while it is relatively tolerant of men’s figures.

Tracking Occupational Intensity Using Archaeo-faunal Data: Case Studies from the Late Pleistocene in the Southern Cape of South Africa

Occupational intensity is a common theme in current research and has been linked to significant demographic trends in the past. The Late Pleistocene in the southern Cape may be especially important in understanding the impacts of socio-demographic change given its association with developments in ‘modern’ human behaviour. The ubiquity of archaeo-faunal remains at Middle Stone Age (MSA) sites makes these convenient datasets for documenting site-specific occupational patterns. In this paper, zooarchaeological and taphonomic data are evaluated as proxies for occupational intensity, and occupational trends are explored in the southern Cape. Zooarchaeological and taphonomic data from three southern Cape MSA sites—Klipdrift Shelter, Blombos Cave and Pinnacle Point—are compared with previously determined higher and lower occupational levels within each site to assess the value of these proxies in tracking temporal changes in settlement intensity. The results show that, while frequencies of small mammals and larger ungulates often covary with occupational levels, these are problematic indicators because of the impact of carnivores. Similarly, faunal diversity generally corresponds well with increasing human occupations but is a problematic proxy because of the effects of animal activity. Anthropogenic bone surface modifications appear to be effective in tracking occupational patterns, with trampling a particularly useful indicator. Faunal and shellfish density, and transverse bone fracture patterns, are valuable proxies of occupational intensity at all sites. Generally, the data suggests close links between occupational intensity at these sites and marine transgressions. Evidence of increased exploitation of small game in the later MSA may imply periods of subsistence intensification possibly linked to increased demographic pressure during Marine Isotope Stage 4.

Modelling of hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests on admission to hospital from A&E: rapid cost-effectiveness analysis.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019. At the time of writing (October 2020), the number of cases of COVID-19 had been approaching 38 million and more than 1 million deaths were attributable to it. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be highly transmissible and could rapidly spread in hospital wards. The work undertaken aimed to estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of viral detection point-of-care tests for detecting SARS-CoV-2 compared with laboratory-based tests. A further objective was to assess occupancy levels in hospital areas, such as waiting bays, before allocation to an appropriate bay. The perspective was that of the UK NHS in 2020. The setting was a hypothetical hospital with an accident and emergency department. An individual patient model was constructed that simulated the spread of disease and mortality within the hospital and recorded occupancy levels. Thirty-two strategies involving different hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 tests were modelled. Recently published desirable and acceptable target product profiles for SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests were modelled. Incremental analyses were undertaken using both incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net monetary benefits, and key patient outcomes, such as death and intensive care unit care, caused directly by COVID-19 were recorded. A SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test with a desirable target product profile appears to have a relatively small number of infections, a low occupancy level within the waiting bays, and a high net monetary benefit. However, if hospital laboratory testing can produce results in 6 hours, then the benefits of point-of-care tests may be reduced. The acceptable target product profiles performed less well and had lower net monetary benefits than both a laboratory-based test with a 24-hour turnaround time and strategies using data from currently available SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests. The desirable and acceptable point-of-care test target product profiles had lower requirement for patients to be in waiting bays before being allocated to an appropriate bay than laboratory-based tests, which may be of high importance in some hospitals. Tests that appeared more cost-effective also had better patient outcomes. There is considerable uncertainty in the values for key parameters within the model, although calibration was undertaken in an attempt to mitigate this. The example hospital simulated will also not match those of decision-makers deciding on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of introducing SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests. Given these limitations, the results should be taken as indicative rather than definitive, particularly cost-effectiveness results when the relative cost per SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test is uncertain. Should a SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test with a desirable target product profile become available, this appears promising, particularly when the reduction on the requirements for waiting bays before allocation to a SARS-CoV-2-infected bay, or a non-SARS-CoV-2-infected bay, is considered. The results produced should be informative to decision-makers who can identify the results most pertinent to their specific circumstances. More accurate results could be obtained when there is more certainty on the diagnostic accuracy of, and the reduction in time to test result associated with, SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests, and on the impact of these tests on occupancy of waiting bays and isolation bays. These parameters are currently uncertain. This report was commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme as project number 132154. This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 21. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Dispersers\u2019 habitat detection and settling abilities modulate the effect of habitat amount on metapopulation resilience

ContextMetapopulation theory makes useful predictions for conservation in fragmented landscapes. For randomly distributed habitat patches, it predicts that the ability of a metapopulation to recover from low occupancy level (the “metapopulation capacity”) linearly increases with habitat amount. This prediction derives from describing the dispersal between two patches as a function of their features and the distance separating them only, without interaction with the rest of the landscape. However, if individuals can stop dispersal when hitting a patch (“habitat detection and settling” ability), the rest of habitat may modulate the dispersal between two patches by intercepting dispersers (which constitutes a “shadow” effect).ObjectivesWe aim at evaluating how habitat detection and settling ability, and the subsequent shadow effect, can modulate the relationship between the metapopulation capacity and the habitat amount in the metapopulation.MethodsConsidering two simple metapopulation models with contrasted animal movement types, we used analytical predictions and simulations to study the relationship between habitat amount and metapopulation capacity under various levels of dispersers’ habitat detection and settling ability.ResultsIncreasing habitat detection and settling ability led to: (i) larger metapopulation capacity values than expected from classic metapopulation theory and (ii) concave habitat amount–metapopulation capacity relationship.ConclusionsOverlooking dispersers’ habitat detection and settling ability may lead to underestimating the metapopulation capacity and misevaluating the conservation benefit of increasing habitat amount. Therefore, a further integration of our mechanistic understanding of animals’ displacement into metapopulation theory is urgently needed.

Characteristics and metrics of resilient forests in the Sierra de San Pedro Martír, Mexico

Ecological restoration of fire-excluded yellow pine-mixed conifer (YPMC) forests in the western US first requires the definition of desired future conditions. The Sierra de San Pedro Martír (SSPM) in Baja California has been used as a modern reference for other western US YPMC forests because it shares similar vegetation, soils, climate, and fire regimes, but is less impacted by logging and fire suppression. Our study re-visited a 14 ha SSPM watershed 16 years after it experienced a moderate severity fire preceded by four years of severe drought, in order to better understand resilient forests. We also provide a management-applicable metric for reference conditions by characterizing density and inter-tree competition using stand density index (SDI). We found no significant differences in forest structure between 2004 (1-yr post fire) and 2019 (16-yr post fire) periods, except for moderate and highly variable increases in duff and 1000-hr rotten fuel loads. Our exploration of SDI suggests that this watershed exists at extremely low levels of site occupancy and inter-tree competition relative to its potential. We concluded that, more than competition for resources, fire activity and large-scale climate fluctuations are the most important drivers of stand structure in the SSPM. This study demonstrates the importance of managing for very low tree densities as a component of resilience in YPMC forests.