Lower Colorado River Basin Research Articles

Mapping habitat suitability of invasive crayfish in aridland riverscapes: Virile crayfish (Faxonius virilis) in the Lower Colorado River Basin, USA

Correlative species distribution modeling (SDM) is an important tool to predict distributions of invasive species. A unique challenge of implementing SDMs in aridland stream networks is identifying which streams are perennial and which of those offer suitable habitat for obligate aquatic species. Here, we map perennial streams and habitat suitability of invasive virile crayfish (Faxonius virilis) in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) in the southwestern USA, and quantify drivers of uncertainty in these projections. First, we surveyed F. virilis at 122 stream sites in May–July of 2021, 2022, and 2023. We then implemented an ensemble of SDMs fit using combinations of randomly drawn sites, categories of environmental covariates measured at different spatial scales, survey years, and statistical algorithms. Next, we used open-source street view images from May–July of 2022 and 2023 to assess dry-wet status at 326 road-stream intersections and the same ensemble framework to map perennial stream reaches. Lastly, we quantified drivers of variation in predictive accuracy and mapped habitat suitability across replicates. Median true skill statistic (TSS) across F. virilis replicates was 0.613 and habitat suitability was highest in mountain ecoregions and lowest in desert ecoregions. Of the 130,847 stream km in the LCRB, we estimate 29,078 km (22.2 %) have wetted channels during the May–June dry season and median 50.3 % of these perennial streams provide suitable habitat for F. virilis. The statistical algorithm was the strongest driver of TSS variation across replicates, whereas the spatial scale at which covariates were measured was the strongest driver of variation in mapped habitat suitability across replicates. We confirm the widespread invasion of F. virilis throughout the LCRB, particularly in perennial mountain streams. The modest predictive accuracy highlights the generalistic niche of F. virilis. Overall, we demonstrate that spatiotemporally comprehensive datasets combined with ensemble modeling can guide management at regional extents.

Fish Health Altered by Contaminants and Low Water Temperatures Compounded by Prolonged Regional Drought in the Lower Colorado River Basin, USA.

The goal of this study was to assess health of male Common Carp (carp, Cyprinus carpio) at four sites with a wide range in environmental organic contaminant (EOC) concentrations and water temperatures in Lake Mead National Recreation Area NV/AZ, US, and the potential influence of regional drought. Histological and reproductive biomarkers were measured in 17-30 carp at four sites and 130 EOCs in water per site were analyzed using passive samplers in 2010. Wide ranges among sites were noted in total EOC concentrations (>10Xs) and water temperature/degree days (10Xs). In 2007/08, total polychlorinated biphenyls (tPCBs) in fish whole bodies from Willow Beach (WB) in the free-flowing Colorado River below Hoover Dam were clearly higher than at the other sites. This was most likely due to longer exposures in colder water (12-14 °C) and fish there having the longest lifespan (up to 54 years) for carp reported in the Colorado River Basin. Calculated estrogenicity in water exceeded long-term, environmentally safe criteria of 0.1-0.4 ng/L by one to three orders of magnitude at all sites except the reference site. Low ecological screening values for four contaminants of emerging concern (CEC) in water were exceeded for one CEC in the reference site, two in WB and Las Vegas Bay and three in the most contaminated site LVW. Fish health biomarkers in WB carp had 25% lower liver glycogen, 10Xs higher testicular pigmented cell aggregates and higher sperm abnormalities than the reference site. Sperm from LVW fish also had significantly higher fragmentation of DNA, lower motility and testis had lower percent of spermatozoa, all of which can impair reproduction. Projections from a 3D water quality model performed for WB showed that EOC concentrations due to prolonged regional drought and reduced water levels could increase as high as 135%. Water temperatures by late 21st century are predicted to rise between 0.7 and 2.1 °C that could increase eutrophication, algal blooms, spread disease and decrease dissolved oxygen over 5%.

How three-dimensional forest structure regulates the amount and timing of snowmelt across a climatic gradient of snow persistence

Across the western United States, forests are changing rapidly, with uncertain impacts on snowmelt water resources. Snow partitioning is controlled by forest effects on interception, radiation, and sublimation. Yet, models often lack snow measurements with sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution across gradients of forest structure to accurately represent these fine-scale processes. Here, we utilize four Snowtography stations in Arizona, in the lower Colorado River Basin, with daily measurements over 3–5 years at ~110 positions distributed across gradients of forest structure resulting from wildfires and mechanical thinning. We combine Snowtography with lidar snapshots of forest and snow to train a high-resolution snow model and run it for 6 years to quantify how forest structure regulates snowpack and snowmelt. These study sites represent a climate gradient from lower/warmer ephemeral snowpack (~2,100 m asl) to higher/colder seasonal snowpack (~2,800 m asl). Forest cover reduced snowpack and snowmelt through canopy sublimation. Forest advanced snowmelt timing at lower/warmer sites but delayed it at higher/colder sites. Within canopy gaps, shaded cool edges had the greatest peak snow water equivalent (SWE). Surprisingly, sunny/warm gap edges produced more snowmelt than cool edges, because high radiation melted snow quickly, reducing exposure to sublimation. Therefore, peak SWE is not an ideal proxy for snowmelt volume from ephemeral snowpacks, which are becoming more prevalent due to warming. The results imply that forest management can influence the amount and timing of snowmelt, and that there may be decision trade-offs between enhancing forest resilience through delayed snowmelt and maximizing snowmelt volumes for downstream water resources.

Estimating catchment‐scale sediment storage in a large River Basin, Colorado River, USA

Estimating <scp>catchment‐scale</scp> sediment storage in a large River Basin, Colorado River, <scp>USA</scp>

Fluviomorphic trajectories for dryland ephemeral stream channels following extreme flash floods

AbstractEphemeral alluvial streams pose globally significant flood hazards to human habitation in drylands, but sparse data for these regions limit understanding of the character and impacts of extreme flooding. In this study, we document decadal changes in dryland ephemeral channel patterns at two sites in the lower Colorado River Basin (southwestern United States) that were ravaged by extraordinary flash floods in the 1970s: Bronco Creek, Arizona (1971), and Eldorado Canyon, Nevada (1974). We refer to these two floods as ‘fluviomorphic erasure events’, because they produced blank slates for the channels that were gradually moulded by more frequent but much smaller flood events. We studied georectified aerial photos that span ~60 years at each site to show that both study sites recovered to their pre‐flood condition after ~25 years. We employ channel network metrics: stream‐link area (SLA), geometric braiding index and junction‐node density. Each metric decreased during the short‐duration extreme flood erasure events. Subsequently, a fluviomorphic trajectory at a decadal tempo returned the channels to pre‐flood values. The SLA decreased at rates of 3.6%–4.1% per year in the decade following the floods. The extreme flood events decreased the pre‐flood geometric braiding index at the two sites by 56%–68%, and it took 15–24 years for this index to recover to pre‐flood values. In contrast, it took 30–35 years for the channels to recover to a uniform pre‐flood channel form, as indicated by the spatial distribution of bars and junction nodes. Our results document baseline examples of ephemeral stream channel evolution trajectories, as future climatic change will likely accelerate increases in the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme floods and geomorphic erasure events.

Economic Impacts of the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan in the Lower Colorado River Basin: Water, Energy, and Recreation

Economic Impacts of the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan in the Lower Colorado River Basin: Water, Energy, and Recreation

Long‐term patterns of fish community structure and decline in native species in a Colorado River reservoir, Arizona and Nevada

AbstractObjectiveThe Colorado River has undergone substantial anthropogenic modifications, and a suite of nonnative species have been introduced since the 1800s; consequently, native fish communities are severely imperiled. We examined temporal patterns in fish community structure in Lake Mohave (i.e., lower Colorado River basin) over 40 years from 1980 to 2020.MethodsWe examined long‐term abundance and richness trends and the trajectory of fish community structure in multivariate space to assess stability and turnover using results from biannual (spring and autumn) trammel‐net monitoring over 40 years from 1980 to 2020.ResultNonnative fishes were established prior to sampling, precluding the ability to determine historical fish community structure. Bonytail Gila elegans and Razorback Sucker Xyrauchen texanus were the only two remaining native fishes, and both declined precipitously in abundance through time. However, a repatriation program initiated in 1991 prevented Razorback Sucker from extirpation, while reintroduction efforts for Bonytail have failed. Both wild populations are gone. Total catch per unit effort showed a negative relationship from 1980 to 2020, whereas total species richness showed no relationship. Long‐term abundance trends at the species level indicated three nonnative species (i.e., Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, Yellow Bullhead Ameiurus natalis, and Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu) increased, nine decreased, and three showed no relationship. Fish community composition exhibited low stability and moderate turnover and shifted directionally through time in multivariate space, with the formation of three clusters, possibly indicating alternative states.ConclusionThe contemporary fish community shows little resemblance to the endemic ichthyofauna that has historically occupied the Colorado River, and the Razorback Sucker is the only remaining native species due to recovery efforts. Continued adaptive management will be required to preserve the most genetically diverse Razorback Sucker population in the Colorado River system, especially while coexisting with an unstable nonnative fish community.

Water Supply in the Lower Colorado River Basin: Effectiveness of the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan

Water Supply in the Lower Colorado River Basin: Effectiveness of the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan

Crop water use dynamics over arid and semi-arid croplands in the lower Colorado River Basin

ABSTRACT Numerous studies have evaluated the application of Remote Sensing (RS) techniques for mapping actual evapotranspiration (ETa) using Vegetation-Index-based (VI-based) and surface energy balance methods (SEB). SEB models computationally require a large effort for application. VI-based methods are fast and easy to apply and could therefore potentially be applied at high resolution; however, the accuracy of VI-based methods in comparison to SEB-based models remains unclear. We tested the ETa computed with the modified 2-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (METEVI2) implemented in the Google Earth Engine – for mapping croplands’ water use dynamics in the Lower Colorado River Basin. We compared METEVI2 with the well-established RS-based products of OpenET (Ensemble, eeMETRIC, SSEBop, SIMS, PT_JPL, DisALEXI and geeSEBAL). METEVI2 was then evaluated with measured ETa from four wheat fields (2017–2018). Results indicated that the monthly ETa variations for METEVI2 and OpenET models were comparable, though of varying magnitudes. On average, METEVI2 had the lowest difference rate from the average observed ETa with 17 mm underestimation, while SIMS had the highest difference rate (82 mm). Findings show that METEVI2 is a cost-effective ETa mapping tool in drylands to track crop water use. Future studies should test METEVI2’s applicability to croplands in more humid regions.

Limits of thermal and hydrological tolerance in a foundation tree species (Populus fremontii) in the desert southwestern United States.

Populus fremontii is among the most dominant, and ecologically important riparian tree species in the western United States and can thrive in hyper-arid riparian corridors. Yet, P. fremontii forests have rapidly declined over the last decade, particularly in places where temperatures sometimes exceed 50°C. We evaluated high temperature tolerance of leaf metabolism, leaf thermoregulation, and leaf hydraulic function in eight P. fremontii populations spanning a 5.3°C mean annual temperature gradient in a well-watered common garden, and at source locations throughout the lower Colorado River Basin. Two major results emerged. First, despite having an exceptionally high Tcrit (the temperature at which Photosystem II is disrupted) relative to other tree taxa, recent heat waves exceeded Tcrit , requiring evaporative leaf cooling to maintain leaf-to-air thermal safety margins. Second, in midsummer, genotypes from the warmest locations maintained lower midday leaf temperatures, a higher midday stomatal conductance, and maintained turgor pressure at lower water potentials than genotypes from more temperate locations. Taken together, results suggest that under well-watered conditions, P. fremontii can regulate leaf temperature below Tcrit along the warm edge of its distribution. Nevertheless, reduced Colorado River flows threaten to lower water tables below levels needed for evaporative cooling during episodic heat waves.

Insect collecting bias in Arizona with a preliminary checklist of the beetles from the Sand Tank Mountains.

The State of Arizona in the south-western United States supports a high diversity of insects. Digitised occurrence records, especially from preserved specimens in natural history collections, are an important and growing resource to understand biodiversity and biogeography. Underlying bias in how insects are collected and what that means for interpreting patterns of insect diversity is largely untested. To explore the effects of insect collecting bias in Arizona, the State was regionalised into specific areas. First, the entire State was divided into broad biogeographic areas by ecoregion. Second, the 81 tallest mountain ranges were mapped on to the State. The distribution of digitised records across these areas were then examined.A case study of surveying the beetles (Insecta, Coleoptera) of the Sand Tank Mountains is presented. The Sand Tanks are a low-elevation range in the Lower Colorado River Basin subregion of the Sonoran Desert from which a single beetle record was published before this study. The number of occurrence records and collecting events are very unevenly distributed throughout Arizona and do not strongly correlate with the geographic size of areas. Species richness is estimated for regions in Arizona using rarefaction and extrapolation. Digitised records from the disproportionately highly collected areas in Arizona represent at best 70% the total insect diversity within them. We report a total of 141 species of Coleoptera from the Sand Tank Mountains, based on 914 digitised voucher specimens. These specimens add important new records for taxa that were previously unavailable in digitised data and highlight important biogeographic ranges.Possible underlying mechanisms causing bias are discussed and recommendations are made for future targeted collecting of under-sampled regions. Insect species diversity is apparently at best 70% documented for the State of Arizona with many thousands of species not yet recorded. The Chiricahua Mountains are the most densely sampled region of Arizona and likely contain at least 2,000 species not yet vouchered in online data. Preliminary estimates for species richness of Arizona are at least 21,000 and likely much higher. Limitations to analyses are discussed which highlight the strong need for more insect occurrence data.

Spatiotemporal Variability in Total Dissolved Solids and Total Suspended Solids along the Colorado River

The Colorado River is a principal source of water for 40 million people and farmlands in seven states in the western US and the Republic of Mexico. The river has been under intense pressure from the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities associated with population growth leading to elevated total dissolved solid (TDS) and total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations. Elevated TDS- and TSS-related issues in the basin have a direct negative impact on the water usage and the ecological health of aquatic organisms. This study, therefore, analyzed the spatiotemporal variability in the TDS and TSS concentrations along the river. Results from our analysis show that TDS concentration was significantly higher in the Upper Colorado River Basin while the Lower Colorado River Basin shows a generally high level of TSSs. We found that the activities in these two basins are distinctive and may be a factor in these variations. Results from the Kruskal–Wallis significance test show there are statistically significant differences in TDSs and TSSs from month to month, season to season, and year to year. These significant variations are largely due to seasonal rises in consumptive use, agriculture practices, snowmelts runoffs, and evaporate rates exacerbated by increased temperature in the summer months. The findings from this study will aid in understanding the river’s water quality, detecting the sources and hotspots of pollutions to the river, and guiding legislative actions. The knowledge obtained forms a strong basis for management and conservation efforts and consequently helps to reduce the economic damage caused by these water quality parameters including the over USD 300 million associated with TDS damages.

Development of twenty-one novel microsatellite loci for Gila topminnow, Poeciliopsis occidentalis occidentalis.

Gila topminnow (Poeciliopsis occidentalis occidentalis) was once highly abundant throughout the Lower Colorado River Basin of the southwestern United States. However, this Sonoran Desert endemic suffered extreme population declines over the past century because of habitat degradation and nonnative species introductions. Much of the prior conservation genetic work conducted on the species relied upon a small number of microsatellite loci; many exhibiting low variability in extant populations. Consequently, there was a need for additional microsatellite loci to provide high-resolution delimitation of populations for conservation purposes. Paired-end Illumina sequencing was utilized to screen the Gila topminnow genome for novel microsatellite loci. We identified 21 novel loci that exhibited no deviations from expectations of genetic equilibrium, and cross-amplified in Yaqui topminnow (P. o. sonoriensis). These loci were amplified from 401 samples representing eight populations of Gila topminnow and Yaqui topminnow. Although diversity was low for all populations (observed heterozygosity = 0.12 to 0.45), these novel markers provided ample power to identify population of origin for each individual in Bayesian assignment tests. This novel set of microsatellite loci provide a useful genetic tool to assess population genetic parameters of the endangered Gila topminnow and delineate populations for identifying conservation priorities. The cross-amplification of these loci in Yaqui topminnow shows promise for application to other Poeciliopsis species of Mexico and Central America.

A Survey of the Bureau of Reclamation’s Decree Accounting Reports in the Lower Colorado River Basin

From the Rocky Mountains in the US to the Sea of Cortez in Mexico, the Colorado River is one of the most managed and monitored rivers in the world. As decreasing river flows from drought and climate change continue to impact the Colorado River Basin, the US federal government, seven US states, and Mexico have signed agreements that would reduce deliveries, including a Drought Contingency Plan (DCP), an agreement among the US states and the Bureau of Reclamation, and Minute 323 (a treaty agreement between the US and Mexico). As part of the DCP, the US Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) committed to increasing conservation efforts to augment storage in Lake Mead. This paper presents an analysis of Reclamation’s Decree Accounting Reports that record water deliveries and conservation savings from 1964 to 2019. Overall, this analysis illustrates that (1) the agency has implemented significant conservation actions over the last three decades, (2) the agency has responded to increased accounting needs as dictated by national and international management agreements, (3) some actions have resulted in environmental costs, and (4) future actions could be designed to avoid environmental harms while also augmenting Lake Mead levels. As climate change continues to constrain Colorado River water supply, detailed accounting may help reveal areas for potential efficiencies or demonstrate where the greatest levels of savings have been reached while ensuring that environmental and social benefits are preserved.

An Historical Perspective on the Accounting for Evaporation and System Losses in the Lower Colorado River Basin

An Historical Perspective on the Accounting for Evaporation and System Losses in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Lake management under severe drought: Lake Mead, Nevada/Arizona

AbstractDrought can affect both the quantity and quality of water in lakes and reservoirs, yet larger, highly managed waterbodies, such as Lake Mead, may be somewhat buffered from drought effects. From 2000 to present, Lake Mead has experienced a 71% decline in volume; however, influent water quality has remained high and consistent outflow volumes through Hoover Dam have been maintained. Furthermore, management activities, such as increased removal of phosphorus by wastewater dischargers and legacy contamination cleanup efforts, have been initiated since the drought began. These efforts have led to small improvements in values of water quality parameters, such as phosphorus, nitrogen, and perchlorate, despite loss of volume for dilution of constituents, and consequently, decreased residence time. As the drought continues, Lake Mead is projected to continue declining in volume, inflows are projected to become warmer, and the population of Las Vegas is projected to grow, potentially adding additional stress to the hydrologic system. Maintenance of outflow may mitigate some potentially negative consequences, and understanding the drivers behind continued high water quality despite prolonged drought is important to continue to maintain the health and vitality of the entire Lower Colorado River Basin.

The manufacture process of war clubs: Replicating indigenous technological systems of conflict from the Lower Colorado Basin

This study provides a multi-disciplinary framework operationalizing the study of weaponry through experimental archaeology. In this scenario, I focus on war clubs, a type of Indigenous weapon commonly found across North America. The goal of this study is to understand how these weapons were engineered for violent conflict. My methodology utilizes archival research, museum study, and experimental archaeology analyses to elaborate on features of design, manufacture, use, and tactics of war club technologies. To operationalize this framework, I focus on a case study of conflict technology in the Lower Colorado River Basin from 1540–1857. Despite war clubs being prolific and an integral part of the technological systems of conflict in this region, this is the initial in-depth material analysis of this weapon type. From this study we can begin to infer how and why weapons systems were chosen, designed, created, and used through the experiential and embodied process of making.

Update On A Long-term Winter Operational Cloud Seeding Program In Central/Southern Utah

North American Weather Consultants, Inc. (NAWC) has conducted operational winter cloud seeding programs in the mountainous areas of Central and Southern Utah since 1974. Beginning in 1988, seeding has also been conducted in three additional mountainous target areas within the State. The goal of these programs has been to enhance winter snowpack accumulation in the target areas, which now include most of the mountainous areas of the State. Studies have demonstrated that a large majority of the annual runoff in Utah streams and rivers is derived from melting snowpack, which explains the focus on wintertime seeding (within the November – April period). Augmented water supplies are typically used for irrigated agriculture or municipal water supplies. Programs are typically funded at the county level with cost sharing grants from the Utah Division of Water Resources (UDWR) and the three Lower Colorado River Basin States of Arizona, California, and Nevada, since 2007. An earlier WMA paper (Griffith et al. 2009) provided a summary of seeding operations for the water years of 1974 through 2007 for the four target areas. This paper is focused on the Central and Southern Utah program which is both the largest target area and the longest running program in the state. It covers all but three water years from 1974 through 2021 and is one of the three or four longest operational winter cloud seeding programs that have been conducted in the United States. The target area encompasses several mountain ranges in Central and Southern Utah. NAWC has defined the target area boundaries as those locations that are above 7,000 feet MSL. This is a large area of approximately10,000 square miles. Cloud seeding is accomplished using networks of ground-based, manually operated silver iodide nuclei generators located in valley or foothill locations upwind of the intended target mountain barriers. As such, these programs are classified as orographic winter cloud seeding programs. Orographic winter cloud seeding programs are typically categorized as those with the highest level of scientific support based upon capability statements of such organizations as the American Meteorological Society and the Weather Modification Association. NAWC historical target/control evaluations of this program indicate an average increase in December-March target area precipitation of 12% or an average increase in precipitation of 1.3”. These results were significant at the 0.06 level from a one-tailed Student’s t-test. The UDWR has conducted periodic studies to estimate the increases in annual streamflow resulting from the estimated increases in April 1st snow water content produced by this seeding program. The most recent study (UDWR 2018) indicated an estimated average annual streamflow increase of about 84,000 acre-feet for the Central and Southern Utah target area. Factoring in the cost of conducting this program resulted in an estimate of the average cost of the augmented runoff to be $2.02 per acre-foot.

Streamflow Response to Wildfire Differs With Season and Elevation in Adjacent Headwaters of the Lower Colorado River Basin

AbstractFires increasingly impact forested watersheds, with uncertain water resources impacts. While research has revealed higher peak flows, longer‐term yields may increase or decrease following fire, and the mechanisms regulating post‐fire streamflow are little explored. Hydrologic response to disturbance is poorly understood in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), where snowmelt often occurs before the growing season. Here, we quantify annual streamflow changes following what have been, before 2020, two of the largest wildfires in the modern history of the contiguous United States. We evaluate nine nested watersheds with &gt;50 years records within the Salt River Basin to evaluate fire impact over ranges of elevation, climate, vegetation, burned area, and spatial scale. We employ double‐mass comparison of paired watersheds, pre‐ and post‐fire runoff ratio comparison, multiple linear regression of climate and fire, and time‐trend analysis. Precipitation and streamflow are decoupled during dry periods; therefore we conduct separate change detection for wet and dry periods. Post‐fire summer streamflow increased by 24%–38% at all elevations. While winter/spring streamflow remained constant in the highest, coldest headwaters, winter flows declined in lower‐elevation headwaters. As a result, basin annual streamflow declined. These results support emerging understanding that warm semiarid watersheds respond differently to disturbance than well‐studied, colder watersheds. Asynchrony between winter snowmelt and summer evaporative demand is likely important when considering long‐term impacts of forest management and disturbance on water supply in the LCRB.

The Compensatory CO2 Fertilization and Stomatal Closure Effects on Runoff Projection From 2016–2099 in the Western United States

AbstractWater availability in the dry western United States (US) under climate change and increasing water use demand has become a serious concern. Previous studies have projected future runoff changes across the western US but ignored the impacts of ecosystem response to elevated CO2 concentration. Here, we aim to understand the impacts of elevated CO2 on future runoff changes through ecosystem responses to both rising CO2 and associated warming using the Noah‐MP model with representations of vegetation dynamics and plant hydraulics. We first validated Noah‐MP against observed runoff, leaf area index (LAI), and terrestrial water storage anomaly from 1980 to 2015. We then projected future runoff with Noah‐MP under downscaled climates from three climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The projected runoff declines variably from the Pacific Northwest by −11% to the Lower Colorado River basin by −92% from 2016 to 2099. To discern the exact causes, we conducted an attribution analysis of the modeled evapotranspiration from two additional sensitivity experiments: one with constant CO2 and another one with static monthly LAI climatology. Results show that surface “greening” (due to the CO2 fertilization effect) and the stomatal closure effect are the second largest contributors to future runoff change, following the warming effect. These two counteracting CO2 effects are roughly compensatory, leaving the warming effect to remain the dominant contributor to the projected runoff declines at large river basin scales. This study suggests that both surface “greening” and stomatal closure effects are important factors and should be considered together in water resource projections.