Lowest Akaike Information Criterion Value Research Articles

SQEAIR: an Improved Infectious Disease Dynamics Model

The Covid-19 pandemic poses a significant threat to human health and life. Timely and accurate prediction of the epidemic’s trajectory is crucial for devising effective prevention and control strategies. Traditional infectious disease models may not capture the complexity of modern epidemics, especially when governments implement diverse policies. Drawing from China’s epidemic prevention strategies and Covid-19 transmission characteristics, this study introduces two distinct categories quarantined cases and asymptomatic cases to enhance the traditional SEIR model in depicting disease dynamics. To address the intricate nature of prevention and control efforts, the quarantined cases are further segmented into three subgroups: exposed quarantined, asymptomatic quarantined, and infected quarantined cases. Consequently, a novel SQEAIR model is proposed to model the dynamics of Covid-19. Evaluation metrics such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Absolute Percentage Error (MAE) are employed to assess the efficacy and accuracy of both the newly proposed and traditional models. By fitting the models to the number of infected cases in Shanghai (March to May 2022) and Guangzhou (November 2022), it was observed that the SQEAIR model exhibited a lower AIC value compared to the SEIR model, indicating superior fitting accuracy for Covid-19 infections. Moreover, the high accuracy of the SQEAIR model enabled precise predictions of confirmed cases in Guangzhou. Leveraging the SQEAIR model, various parameters were tested to simulate the impact of different influencing factors, enabling the evaluation of defense strategies. These findings underscore the effectiveness of key epidemic control measures, such as quarantining exposed cases, in enhancing public health and promoting awareness of personal protection.

Conventional and machine-learning based risk score for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

The performance of machine-learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups. The study retrospectively enrolled 1411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort. In the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, and albumin bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATS-INF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores. Both the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.

Relationship Between Tenofovir Diphosphate Concentrations in Dried Blood Spots and Virological Outcomes After Initiating Tenofovir-Lamivudine-Dolutegravir as First-Line or Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy.

Tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentration in dried blood spots is a marker of long-term adherence. We investigated the relationship between TFV-DP concentrations and virological outcomes in participants initiating tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir (TLD) as first-line or second-line antiretroviral therapy. Three primary care clinics in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa. We conducted a post hoc analysis of 2 randomized controlled trials of participants initiating TLD. TFV-DP concentrations and viral loads were measured at 12, 24, and 48 weeks. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the association with virological suppression (<50 copies/mL) per natural logarithm increase in TFV-DP concentration. Generalized estimating equations with logit link were used to assess associations with virological rebound. The Akaike Information Criterion and Quasi-likelihood Information Criteria were used to compare models built on continuous TFV-DP data to 4 previously defined concentration categories. We included 294 participants in the analysis, 188 (64%) of whom initiated TLD as second-line therapy. Adjusted odds ratios (95% CIs) of virological suppression were 2.12 (1.23, 3.75), 3.11 (1.84, 5.65), and 4.69 (2.81, 8.68) per natural logarithm increase in TFV-DP concentration at weeks 12, 24, and 48, respectively. In participants with virological suppression at week 12, the adjusted odds ratio for remaining virologically suppressed was 3.63 (95% CI: 2.21 to 5.69) per natural logarithm increase in TFV-DP concentration. Models using continuous TFV-DP data had lower Akaike Information Criterion and Quasi-likelihood Information Criteria values than those using categorical data for predicting virological outcomes. TFV-DP concentrations in dried blood spots exhibit a dose-response relationship with viral load. Analyzing TFV-DP concentrations as continuous variables rather than conventional categorization may be appropriate.

Prediction of Ki-67 expression in bladder cancer based on CT radiomics nomogram.

This study aimed to create and validate a radiomics nomogram for non-invasive preoperative Ki-67 expression level prediction in patients with bladder cancer (BCa) using contrast-enhanced CT radiomics features. A retrospective analysis of 135 patients was conducted, 79 of whom had high levels of Ki-67 expression and 56 of whom had low levels. For the dimensionality reduction analysis, the best features were chosen using the least absolute shrinkage selection operator and one-way analysis of variance. Then, a radiomics nomogram was created using multiple logistic regression analysis based on radiomics features and clinical independent risk factors. The performance of the model was assessed using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) value, the area under the curve (AUC) value, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The clinical usefulness of the model was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, to establish a radiomics nomogram, the best 5 features were chosen and integrated with the independent clinical risk factors (T stage) and Rad-score. This radiomics nomogram demonstrated significant correction and discriminating performance in both the training and validation sets, with an AUC of 0.836 and 0.887, respectively. This radiomics nomogram had the lowest AIC value (AIC = 103.16), which was considered to be the best model. When compared to clinical factor model and radiomics signature, DCA demonstrated the more value of the radiomics nomogram. Enhanced CT-based radiomics nomogram can better predict Ki-67 expression in BCa patients and can be used for prognosis assessment and clinical decision making.

Development and evaluation of the Newstage system: integrating tumor regression grade and lymph node status for improved prognostication in neoadjuvant treatment of gastric cancer

BackgroundThe predictive correlation of tumor depth of invasion changes after neoadjuvant therapy, and the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) ypTNM system for gastric cancer may not accurately predict patient prognosis following neoadjuvant therapy.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on a total of 258 patients who underwent radical surgery for gastric cancer after neoadjuvant therapy. The Newstage system was established based on tumor regression grade and pathological lymph node status. The 3-year survival rates of patients classified by the Newstage system were compared with those classified by the AJCC ypTNM system.ResultsIn a cohort of 258 patients, the 3-year overall survival rates based on the Newstage system were: (I) 94.6%, (II) 79.3%, (III) 54.5%, and (IV) 30.2%. The Newstage system exhibited a lower Akaike information criterion value (902.57 vs. 912.03). Additionally, the area under the ROC curve (0.756 vs. 0.733) and the C-index (0.731 vs. 0.718) was higher than the AJCC ypTNM system. Furthermore, a multivariate analysis indicated that the Newstage system was an independent prognostic factor (p = 0.001).ConclusionThe Newstage system exhibits superior predictive performance in estimating survival rates for neoadjuvant therapy in gastric cancer. It also functions as an independent prognostic factor.

Anterior Knee Pain Scale (AKPS): structural and criterion validity in Brazilian population with patellofemoral pain

PurposeTo identify the best internal structure of the Brazilian version of the Anterior Knee Pain Scale (AKPS), comparing different instrument structures (structural validity) and correlating the scores of the versions (criterion validity).MethodsWe included Brazilian volunteers, aged ≥ 18 years, with patellofemoral pain (PFP) for at least 3 months. We used the confirmatory factor analysis and considered the following fit indices: chi-square/degrees of freedom (DF), comparative fit index (CFI), Tucker-Lewis index (TLI), root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA). We considered the structure with the lowest values of the Akaike information criterion (AIC), sample size adjusted Bayesian information criterion (SABIC), and assessed criterion validity using Pearson correlation coefficient (r) to correlate the long and short versions.ResultsThe study included 101 participants, mostly women (65.3%), young adults (~ 31 years old), overweight (BMI > 25 kg/m2), incomplete higher education (37.6%), and physically active (64.4%). The original 1-domain, 13-item structure showed adequate fit indices (chi-square/GL < 3.00, TLI and CFI > 0.90, and RMSEA < 0, 08). However, items 11 and 12 had a factorial load of less than 0.23. Therefore, we excluded items 11 and 12 and found adequate fit indices (chi-square/GL < 3.00, TLI and CFI > 0.90, and RMSEA < 0, 08) and lower AIC and SABIC values. We observed a correlation coefficient above the acceptable cutoff of 0.70 (r = 0.966, p-value < 0.001) between the versions.ConclusionThe 11-item AKPS (without items 11 and 12) is the version with the most adequate internal structure and correlates satisfactorily with the long version of the instrument.

Perhitungan Premi Murni Kendaraan Bermotor Menggunakan Generalized Linear Models

Insurance is a form of agreement between the insurer against the insured party (insurance company), where the insurer will pay a premium to the insured every month as a form of collateral for loss or damage that befalls him for certain events. Researchers took data by distributing questionnaires to respondents. Some covariate variables used in the study include: gender, vehicle age, vehicle insurance costs, vehicle use, vehicle mileage every year, and claims records in the last three years. Meanwhile, the dependent variable is frequency claim and claim severity. The researcher estimates the Generalized Linear Models (GLZ) parameters using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The next step, researchers conducted a model compatibility test on the dependent variable using calculations on the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), where the model chosen was the model with the lowest AIC value. Based on this, the researcher can determine covariate variables that affect the dependent variable and model it. The final step is the researcher calculates the probability of claim frequency, claim severity, and estimates the amount of pure premiums charged to respondents.

Evaluating Non-Stationarity in Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex, Texas, USA

Extreme precipitation has become more frequent and intense with time and space. Infrastructure design tools such as Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves still rely on historical precipitation and stationary assumptions, risking current and future urban infrastructure. This study developed IDF curves by incorporating non-stationarity trends in precipitation annual maximum series (AMS) for Dallas–Fort Worth, the fourth-largest metropolitan region in the United States. A Pro-NEVA tool was used to develop non-stationary IDF curves, taking historical precipitation AMS for seven stations that showed a non-stationary trend with time as a covariate. Four statistical indices—the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)—were used as the model goodness of fit evaluation. The lower AIC, BIC, and RMSE values and higher NSE values for non-stationary models indicated a better performance compared to the stationary models. Compared to the traditional stationary assumption, the non-stationary IDF curves showed an increase (up to 75%) in the 24 h precipitation intensity for the 100-year return period. Using the climate change adaptive non-stationary IDF tool for the DFW metroplex and similar urban regions could enable decision makers to make climate-informed choices about infrastructure investments, emergency preparedness measures, and long-term urban development and water resource management planning.

The liver-heart axis in patients with severe obesity: The association between liver fibrosis and chronic myocardial injury may be explained by shared risk factors of cardiovascular disease

BackgroundSevere obesity is associated with increased risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that liver fibrosis as quantified by the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test would be predictive of myocardial injury and fibrosis, expressed by higher concentrations of cardiac troponin T and I measured by high-sensitivity assays (hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI, respectively). Material and methodsWe performed cross-sectional analyses of baseline data from 136 patients (mean age 45 years, 38 % male) with severe obesity participating in the non-randomized clinical trial Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in Morbidly Obese Patients (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00626964). Associations between ELF scores, hs-cTnT, and hs-cTnI concentrations were assessed using linear regression analysis. ResultsELF scores were associated with hs-cTnT in the unadjusted model (B 0.381, 95 % Confidence Interval [CI] 0.247, 0.514), but the association was attenuated upon adjustment for potential confounders (B −0.031, 95 % CI −0.155, 0.093). Similarly, for hs-cTnI, an observed association with ELF scores in the unadjusted model was attenuated upon adjustment for potential confounders ((B 0.432, 95 % CI 0.179, 0.685) and (B 0.069, 95 % CI −0.230, 0.367), respectively). Age, sex, hypertension, and estimated glomerular filtration rate were amongst the shared predictors of ELF score, hs-cTnT, and hs-cTnI that provided the univariable models with the highest R-squared and lowest Akaike Information Criterion values. ConclusionsContrary to our hypothesis, ELF score did not predict myocardial injury and fibrosis, but we rather demonstrated an association between liver fibrosis and myocardial injury and fibrosis may be explained by shared risk factors of cardiovascular disease.

ASGARD risk scores for long-term, individualized cardiovascular surveillance of low-risk patients with asymptomatic non-severe aortic valve stenosis: development and internal validation

Abstract Background Routine echocardiography of asymptomatic patients with non-severe aortic valve stenosis (AS) mainly focuses on the valve condition at 1-2 year intervals but has limited ability to predict the risk of other cardiovascular comorbidities. Thus, there is a compelling need to replace routine echocardiography for low-risk patients with more individualized cardiovascular surveillance for a safe period. Aim First, to develop and validate separate risk stratification models for AS-related events (AVE) and major cardiovascular events (MCE) to identify low-risk AS patients who can safely postpone routine echocardiography replaced by tailored risk stratification and adequate risk factor management. Second, to estimate optimal follow-up intervals according to risk stratification for each outcome. Methods We analyzed serial measurements from 69% of 1579 patients with mild-to-moderate AS who were asymptomatic and event-free one year after inclusion in the randomized, multicenter Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) trial. We developed two ASGARD risk scores using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses, designed as landmark analyses starting at year-1 and with a clinically relevant 2-year follow-up. The ASGARD scores estimated the risk of AVE (composite of aortic valve replacement or hospitalization with heart failure) and MCE (composite of myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass graft, stroke, and all-cause mortality). We estimated the prognostic models with backward elimination, selecting the lowest Akaike information criterion values and p&amp;lt;0.05. There were 7 predictors for AVE and 6 for MCE among current demographic, electrocardiograms, laboratory data, and echocardiographic measures one year earlier (baseline) (Figures 1A, 2A). We defined optimal follow-up for risk score quartiles at rates ≤5% visualized on Kaplan-Meier plots. We assessed model performance in 31% of patients held out for internal validation. Results ASGARD development models for both AVE and MCE risk demonstrated overall consistent predictive performance in the internal validation cohort, as evidenced by c-statistics, calibration-in-the-large, calibration slope, Brier score, and goodness-of-fit (all p&amp;gt;0.05) (Figure 1B-C, 2B-C). ASGARD predicted AVE risk similar to a new Vmax measurement (area under the curve [95% CI], 0.82 [0.78-0.87] vs. 0.85 [0.82-0.89) (Figure 1B), and MCE risk better than Framingham cardiovascular risk score (0.76 [0.70-0.82] vs. 0.68 [0.62-0.75]) (Figure 2B). The one-year event rates were ≤5% for the 2 lowest risk score quartiles (Figure 1D, 2D). Conclusion The ASGARD risk scores show promise for long-term, individualized cardiovascular surveillance of low-risk patients with non-severe AS without unnecessary echocardiography. Further studies are warranted for external model validation, continuous optimization, and exploring the potential for implementation in clinical practice.Figure 1Figure 2

Utility of the revised FIGO2023 staging with molecular classification in endometrial cancer

ObjectivesMolecular classification was introduced in endometrial cancer staging following the transition of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) 2008 to FIGO2023. In the early stages, p53 abnormal endometrial carcinoma with myometrial involvement was upstaged to stage IICm, in addition to the downstaging of POLE mutation endometrial cancer to stage IAm. This study compared the goodness of fit and discriminatory ability of FIGO2008, FIGO2023 without molecular classification (FIGO2023), and FIGO2023 with molecular classification (FIGO2023m); no study has been externally validated to date. MethodsThe study included 265 patients who underwent initial surgery at the National Cancer Center Hospital between 1997 and 2019 and were pathologically diagnosed with endometrial cancer. The three classification systems were compared using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. A higher C-index score and a lower AIC value indicated a more accurate model. ResultsAmong the three classification systems, FIGO2023m had the lowest AIC value (FIGO2023m: 455.925; FIGO2023: 459.162; FIGO2008: 457.901), highest C-index (FIGO2023m: 0.768; FIGO2023: 0.743; FIGO2008: 0.740), and superior time-dependent ROC curves within 1 year after surgical resection. In the stage IIIC, patients with p53 abnormalities had considerably lower 5-year overall survival than those with a p53 wild-type pattern (24.3% vs. 83.7%, p = 0.0005). ConclusionsFIGO2023m had the best discriminatory ability compared with FIGO2008 and FIGO2023. Even in advanced stages, p53 status was a poor prognostic factor. When feasible, molecular subtypes can be added to the staging criteria to allow better prognostic prediction in all stages.

Determining the optimal time to report mortality after lobectomy for lung cancer: An analysis of the time-varying risk of death

ObjectiveSurgical mortality has traditionally been assessed at arbitrary intervals out to 1 year, without an agreed optimum time point. The aim of our study was to investigate the time-varying risk of death after lobectomy to determine the optimum period to evaluate surgical mortality rate after lobectomy for lung cancer. MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of patients undergoing lobectomy for lung cancer at our institution from 2015 to 2022. Parametric survival models were assessed and compared with a nonparametric kernel estimate. The hazard function was plotted over time according to the best-fit statistical distribution. The time points at which instantaneous hazard rate peaked and stabilized in the 1-year period after surgery were then determined. ResultsDuring the study period, 2284 patients underwent lobectomy for lung cancer. Cumulative mortality at 30, 90, and 180 days was 1.3%, 2.9%, and 4.9%, respectively. Log-logistic distribution showed the best fit compared with other statistical distribution, indicated by the lowest Akaike information criteria value. The instantaneous hazard rate was greatest during the immediate postoperative period (0.129; 95% confidence interval, 0.087-0.183) and diminishes rapidly within the first 30 days after surgery. Instantaneous hazard rate continued to decrease past 90 days and stabilized only at approximately 180 days. ConclusionsIn-hospital mortality is the optimal follow-up period that captures the early-phase hazard during the immediate postoperative period after lobectomy. Thirty-day mortality is not synonymous to “early mortality,” as instantaneous hazard rate remains elevated well past the 90-day time point and only stabilizes at approximately 180 days after lobectomy.

15-item Roland-Morris disability questionnaire for general pain (RMDQ-g): Structural validity and criterion validity on Brazilian patients with chronic pain

BackgroundRoland-Morris Disability Questionnaire for general pain (RMDQ-g) is an instrument adapted to assess disability in patients with pain in any region of the body. ObjectiveTo perform the structural and criterion validity of the RMDQ-g in Brazilian patients with chronic pain. DesignA cross-sectional study. MethodsWe included native speakers of Brazilian Portuguese, of both sexes, aged ≥18 years, with pain for at least 3 months in any region of the body. Participants eligible for the study responded to an online form containing personal and clinical data, and assessment instruments. We used the confirmatory factor analysis and considered the following fit indices: chi-square/degree of freedom (DF), comparative fit index (CFI), Tucker-Lewis index (TLI), root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA). In the comparison between models, we considered the structure with the lowest values of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and sample-size adjusted Bayesian information criterion (SABIC). We assessed criterion validity via Spearman's correlation coefficient (rho) to correlate the long and short versions. ResultsThe study consisted of 297 participants with chronic pain. The main sites of pain were the lumbar region (40.7%), thoracic (21.5%), and neck (19.5%). Mean pain intensity was greater than 5 points. The 24-item long version and the 15-item short version had adequate fit indices (chi-square/DF ≤ 1.77, CFI ≥0.97, TLI ≥0.96, and RMSEA ≤0.05). However, when comparing structures, the short version was the most appropriate because it had the lowest values of AIC (2562.05) and SABIC (2577.72). Criterion validity was acceptable (rho = 0.94) and internal consistency as well (Cronbach's alpha = 0.87). ConclusionThe structural validity and criterion validity of the RMDQ-g with one domain and 15 items is the most appropriate version and should be considered in the clinical environment and in research for measuring disability in patients with chronic pain in any region of the body.

Modeling and forecasting of lifetime milk production in Hariana cattle

The present study was conducted on performance records of 648 Hariana cattle with respect to first lactation and lifetime traits spread over a period of 57 years (1962-2018) from DUVASU farm, Mathura and 23 years (1995– 2017) from State livestock farm Babugarh, Hapur. Lifetime production traits, viz. Lifetime 2 Milk Yield (LT2MY), Lifetime 3 Milk Yield (LT3MY), Lifetime 4 Milk Yield (LT4MY) and Lifetime 5 Milk Yield (LT5MY) were predicted by multiple linear regression analysis. Step-wise regression procedure was used to predict the lifetime milk yield from first lactation traits, viz. age at first calving (AFC), first calving interval (FCI) and first lactation total milk yield (FLTMY). The optimum models were selected with the help of Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Mallow’s conceptual predictive value and variance inflation factor. The models with lower AIC, BIC and RMSE values and with higher co-efficient of determination were selected as optimum. The optimal models for lifetime production traits, viz. LT2MY, LT3MY, LT4MY and LT5MY with co-efficient of determination were 75.46%, 66.63%, 59.4% and 55.03%, respectively.

Modeling The Number Of Tuberculosis Cases In West Java Using The Negative Binomial Approach

Objective: This study aims to model the number of Tuberculosis cases in West Java Province in 2021 using the Negative Binomial Regression approach. Methods: This study used quantitative analysis uses secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics website and the Health Office of West Java Province. 27 West Java districts/cities were studied. The number of tuberculosis cases was assumed to be affected by population density, poverty, sanitation, and health complaints in the past month. Negative Binomial Regression was used to analyse data. Results: The results showed that Poisson Regression caused overdispersion, which was solved using the Negative Binomial Regression approach. The Negative Binomial Regression model passed a detailed test. The partial test showed that only the variable percentage of low-income persons and the variable percentage of people with health concerns significantly affected the model with regression coefficients of 0.8755 and 1.0318, respectively. The final Negative Binomial Regression model with the lowest Akaike Information Criterion value of 491.9 is best for this investigation. Conclusion: The most suitable model for modelling the number of Tuberculosis cases in West Java Province in 2021 is the Negative Binomial Regression model with independent variables that significantly influence the model, namely the percentage of poor people and the percentage of people who have had complaints recently.

How many are they? Estimates of demographic patterns of reproductive females of southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) in the southern coast of Brazil

AbstractSouthern right whales use the Brazilian coast as a wintering area. This population was severely depleted by whaling up until 1973. Since the 1980s, studies have shown that this species is now restricted to the southern waters of Brazil. Using photo‐identification data obtained via standardized aerial surveys from Florianópolis, State of Santa Catarina (SC) (−27.797°/−48.533°) to Torres, State of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) (−29.396°/−49.763°), mark‐recapture methods were used to estimate survival capture and recruitment probability, population size using the POPAN model for reproductive females. Data were collected between 2004 and 2021. The final model was selected based on the lowest Akaike Information Criterion value. Of the 396 female whales identified, 41.41% were recaptured at least once. The final POPAN model showed time dependence in all parameters. The population size was estimated to be 397 reproductive females. This is the first update on the population trends for southern right whales in Brazilian breeding grounds since 2010.

A CT-based radiomics nomogram for differentiation of benign and malignant small renal masses (≤4 cm)

Rationale and ObjectivesBased on radiomics signature and clinical data, to develop and verify a radiomics nomogram for preoperative distinguish between benign and malignant of small renal masses (SRM). Materials and MethodsOne hundred and fifty-six patients with malignant (n = 92) and benign (n = 64) SRM were divided into the following three categories: category A, typical angiomyolipoma (AML) with visible fat; category B, benign SRM without visible fat, including fat-poor angiomyolipoma (fp-AML), and other rare benign renal tumors; category C, malignant renal tumors. At the same time, one hundred and fifty-six patients included in the study were divided into the training set (n = 108) and test set (n = 48). Respectively from corticomedullary phase (CP), nephrogram phase (NP) and excretory phase (EP) CT images to extract the radiomics features, and the optimal features were screened to establish the logistic regression model and decision tree model, and computed the radiomics score (Rad-score). Demographics and CT findings were evaluated and statistically significant factors were selected to construct a clinical factors model. The radiomics nomogram was established by merging Rad-score and selected clinical factors. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) values and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to compare model discriminant performance, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess clinical usefulness. ResultsSeven, fifteen, nineteen, and seventeen distinguishing features were obtained in the CP, NP, EP, and three-phase joint, respectively, and the logistic regression and decision tree models were built based on this features. In the training set, the logistic regression model works better than the decision tree model for distinguishing categories A and B from category C, with the AUC of CP, NP, EP and three-phase joint were 0.868, 0.906, 0.937 and 0.975, respectively. The radiomics nomogram constructed based on the three-phase joint Rad-score and selected clinical factor performed well on the training set (AUC, 0.988; 95% CI, 0.974-1.000) for differentiation of categories A and B from category C. In the test set, the AUC of clinical factors model, radiomics signature and radiomics nomogram for discriminating categories A and B from category C were 0.814, 0.954 and 0.968, respectively; for the identification of category A from category C, the AUC of the three models were 0.789, 0.979, 0.985, respectively; for discriminating category B from category C, the AUC of the three models were 0.853, 0.915, 0.946, respectively. The radiomics nomogram had better discriminative than the clinical factors model in both training and test sets (P < 0.05). The radiomics nomogram (AIC = 40.222) with the lowest AIC value was considered the best model compared with that of the clinical factors model (AIC = 106.814) and the radiomics signature (AIC = 44.224). The DCA showed that the radiomics nomogram have better clinical utility than the clinical factors model and radiomics signature. ConclusionsThe logistic regression model has better discriminative performance than the decision tree model, and the radiomics nomogram based on Rad-score of three-phase joint and clinical factors has a good predictive effect in differentiating benign from malignant of SRM, which may help clinicians develop accurate and individualized treatment strategies.

First Total-Body Kinetic Modeling and Parametric Imaging of Dynamic 68Ga-FAPI-04 PET in Pancreatic and Gastric Cancer.

Fibroblast activation protein inhibitor (FAPI) is an ideal diagnostic and therapeutic target in malignant tumors. However, the knowledge of kinetic modeling and parametric imaging of 68Ga-FAPI is limited. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore the pharmacokinetics of 68Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT in pancreatic cancer and gastric cancer and to conduct parametric imaging of dynamic total-body data compared with SUV imaging. Methods: Dynamic total-body 68Ga-FAPI-04 PET/CT was performed on 13 patients. The lesion time-activity curves were fitted by 3-compartment models and multigraphical models. The kinetics parameters derived from the 2-tissue reversible compartment model (2T4K) and multigraphical models were analyzed. Parametric [Formula: see text] imaging was generated using the 2T4K and Logan models, and their performances were evaluated compared with SUV images. Results: 2T4K had the lowest Akaike information criterion value, and its fitting curves matched excellently with the origin time-activity curves. Visual assessment revealed that the [Formula: see text](2T4K) images and [Formula: see text](Logan with spatial constraint [SC]) images both showed less image noise and higher lesion conspicuity compared with SUV images. Objective image quality assessment demonstrated that parametric [Formula: see text](2T4K) images and parametric [Formula: see text](Logan with SC) images had a 5.0-fold and 5.0-fold higher average signal-to-noise ratio and 3.6-fold and 4.1-fold higher average contrast-to-noise ratio compared with conventional SUV images, respectively. In addition, no significant differences in signal-to-noise ratio and contrast-to-noise of pathologic lesions were observed between parametric [Formula: see text](2T4K) images and parametric [Formula: see text](Logan with SC) images (all P > 0.05). Conclusions: The 2T4K model was the preferred compartment model. Total-body parametric imaging of 68Ga-FAPI-04 PET yielded superior quantification beyond SUV with enhanced lesion contrast, which may serve as a promising imaging method to make an early diagnosis, to better reflect tumor characterization, or to allow evaluation of treatment response. [Formula: see text](2T4K) images are comparable in image quality and consistent to [Formula: see text](Logan with SC) images in lesions conspicuity; however, [Formula: see text](Logan with SC) images presented an appealing alternative to [Formula: see text](2T4K) images because of their simplicity.

A Model for Gastric Cancer Risk Prediction Based on MUC1 Polymorphisms and Health-risk Behaviors in a Vietnamese Population.

Although the expression of mucin 1(MUC1) and prostate stem cell antigen (PSCA) genes is correlated with gastric cancer development and progression, the utility of these two genes as biomarkers of gastric cancer prognosis still needs to be confirmed in clinical practice. This study aimed to develop a model predictive of gastric cancer that integrates several significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of MUC1 and PSCA genes, and some health-risk behavior factors in a Vietnamese population. A total of 302 patients with primary gastric carcinoma and 304 healthy persons were included in a case-control study. The generalized linear model was used with the profile of age, sex, history of smoking and using alcohol, personal and family medical history of stomach diseases, and the SNPs of MUC1 and PSCA. The prognostic value of the model was assessed by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values. In male participants, the final model, consisting of age, sex, history of smoking and using alcohol, personal and family medical history of stomach diseases and SNP MUC1 rs4072037, provided acceptable discrimination, with an AUC of 0.6374 and the lowest AIC value (539.53). In female participants, the predictive model including age, sex, history of smoking and using alcohol, personal and family medical history of stomach diseases, SNPs MUC1 rs4072037 and rs2070803 had an AUC of 0.6937 and AIC of 266.80. The calibration plots of the male model approximately fitted the ideal calibration line. The predictive model based on age, sex, medical history, and genetic and health-risk behavior factors has a high potential in determining gastric cancer. Further studies that elucidate other genetic variants should be carried out to define high-risk gastric cancer groups and propose appropriate personalized prevention.

Predição do peso vivo em novilhas de corte usando a fórmula do volume corporal

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate linear, quadratic, and allometric models to predict live weight (LW) using the body volume formula (BV) in crossbred heifers raised in southeastern Mexico. The LW (426.25±117.49kg) and BV (338.05±95.38 dm3) were measured in 360 heifers aged between 3 and 30 months. Linear and non-linear regression were used to construct prediction models. The goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), coefficient of determination (R2), mean squared error (MSE), and root MSE (RMSE). In addition, the developed models were evaluated through cross-validation (k-folds). The ability of the fitted models to predict the observed values was evaluated based on the RMSEP, R2, and mean absolute error (MAE). The quadratic model had the lowest values of AIC (2688.39) and BIC (2700.05). On the other hand, the linear model showed the lowest values of MSE (7954.74) and RMSE (89.19), and the highest values of AIC (2709.70) and BIC (2717.51). Despite this, all models presented the same R2 value (0.87). The cross-validation (k-folds) evaluation of fit showed that the quadratic model had better values of MSEP (41.49), R2 (0.85), and MAE (31.95). We recommend the quadratic model to predictive of the crossbred beef heifers' live weight using the body volume as the predictor.