Low Price Scenario Research Articles

Urban Infrastructure Construction Planning: Urban Public Transport Line Formulation

Urban public transport line formulation has its appeal in promoting public convenience and developing environmentally friendly cities. During the bus line planning stage, the line frequency and stop location determination is a key issue for decision makers. Our study focuses on the integrated formulation problem between line frequency and stop planning featuring multi-type vehicles. The multi-type vehicles are able to accommodate the various passenger demands at either peak hours or off-peak hours. The a priori magnitudes of user demands are investigated by drone-based technique methods in the tactical-level plan. The collected geospatial data can assist the public transport user forecast. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is proposed. The objective is to minimize the walking cost of passengers, the building cost of stops, and the operation cost of service frequency. The effectiveness of the model is validated by a real case in Nantong, China. CPLEX is used to resolve the MILP model. Yielding to the budget constraint, in high-price, medium-price, and low-price scenarios, the optimal high-quantity stop scheme can save 3.04%, 3.11%, and 3.38% in overall cost compared with the medium-quantity stop scheme, respectively; their cost savings are 8.53%, 8.70%, and 9.09% more than the costs of the low-quantity stop scheme.

The effects of price framing and magnitude of price differences on perceived fairness when switching from static to variable pricing

The long-term success of variable pricing relies on existing and new customers accepting the pricing scheme implemented. We use experimental data from the alpine skiing industry to examine how the magnitude of price differences and price framing affect perceived fairness in cases of intra-weekly price differentiations and early-bird discounts. The results show that both the price framing and the magnitude of the price differences between the high- and low-price scenarios have strong effects on perceived fairness. Framing the price difference as either a loss or a gain has an asymmetrical effect on perceived fairness. Increasing the price difference between the high- and low-price alternatives has a negative impact on perceived fairness, but the effect differs across framing (gain or loss) and for various early-bird horizons.

25 Effects of dietary standardized ileal digestible lysine on growth performance, carcass characteristics, and economics of pigs from 100 to 130 kg

Abstract A total of 1,570 finishing pigs (337 × 1050, PIC; initially 103.4 ± 0.85 kg) were used in a 28-d trial to determine the effects of feeding increasing standardized ileal digestible (SID) Lys to pigs between 100 to 130 kg on growth performance, carcass characteristics, and economics. Before the beginning of the study, the 3 heaviest pigs per pen were removed and marketed with all remaining pigs marketed 28-d later at the end of the study. Pigs were housed in mixed sex pens, with 20 pigs per pen and 20 pens per treatment. The experiment was a randomized complete block design with four dietary treatments: 0.63, 0.68, 0.75, and 0.82% SID Lys. Diets were corn-soybean meal-based and fed in meal form. Dietary treatments were similar in NE and increasing SID Lys was achieved by increasing soybean meal and feed grade amino acids. For the first 14 d from 100 to approximately 118 kg, there was a linear tendency for increased (P = 0.074) average daily gain (ADG), a linear improvement (P < 0.05) in gain to feed ratio (G:F), and increase (P < 0.001) in SID lysine intake per kg of gain as SID Lys increased (Table). For the second 14 d from 118 to 128 kg, SID Lys intake per kg of gain increased (P < 0.001) as SID Lys increased, however; there was no evidence for difference (P > 0.10) for any growth performance traits. Overall, there was a linear increase (P = 0.018) in G:F and increase (P < 0.001) in SID lysine intake per kg of gain as SID Lys increased. Increasing SID Lys also linearly increased (P < 0.05) percentage lean and decreased (P < 0.05) backfat depth with no evidence for differences (P > 0.10) in other carcass criteria. For economics, feed cost and feed cost per kg of gain linearly increased (P < 0.05) as SID Lys increased in both low and high-price scenarios. Income over feed cost linearly decreased (P < 0.05) as dietary SID Lys increased in a low-price scenario, but there was no difference between treatments in a high-price scenario (P > 0.10). In conclusion, increasing dietary SID lysine in the last 28-d of the finisher period linearly increased G:F and SID Lys intake per kg of gain without significantly influencing other growth performance traits. Feed cost per kg of gain was linearly increased for both low and high-price scenarios with a detriment for IOFC with increasing SID Lys in the low-price scenario.

Investigation of environmental, operational and economic performance of methanol partially premixed combustion at slow speed operation of a marine engine

Abstract This study aims to investigate the environmental, operational and economic performance of the methanol partially premixed combustion concept at slow speed operation of a ship to find a solution for the shipping emission effect on the coastal settlements while do not increase the risk and expense of the engine operation on the ships. The experimental study was done with partially premixed combustion, one of the advanced combustion concepts, on a Scania D13 heavy-duty diesel engine for its promising results of high engine efficiency and low engine emissions. In addition to the experimental study with methanol fuel, the performance of the methanol was compared with marine gas oil, which was mostly used at the slow speed operation of the ships. Empirical equations and coefficients in the literature were used to calculate specific fuel consumption, efficiency, and emissions of the marine gas oiled operation of the engine. The results showed that the combustion efficiency varied from 0.94 to 0.99 and the gross indicated efficiency varied from 0.42 to 0.46 from 10% to 25% engine loads, respectively, while the gross indicated efficiency of the marine gas oil-fuelled engine was 0.32 as a maximum value. The methanol showed good environmental performance with lower CO2 emissions than the marine gas oil, lower NOX emissions than the NOX Tier III levels, varied between 0.3 g/kWh and 1.4 g/kWh, zero SOX emissions and zero PM emissions. The economic investigation showed that the methanol cost at the low price scenario was 0.147 $/kWh, 0.138 $/kWh and 0.135 $/kWh at 10%, 15% and 25%, respectively, which were lower than the high price scenario and low price scenario of the marine gas oil; and the methanol high price scenario was still competitive with the marine gas oil scenarios.

Costing methods for combined heat-and-power plants fueled by zero-marginal cost energy sources

In this paper, several cost metrics for application to a combined heat-and-power plant fueled by a zero-marginal cost energy source are studied. The mature levelized cost concepts are extended with some novel metrics such as the levelized cost of exergy. The results are given for a geothermal combined heat-and-power plant, connected to two different types of district heating systems and for two scenarios for the heat and electricity prices (high and low). For a low price scenario, the conventional costing method based on two separate prices for electrical and thermal energy is the most appropriate. Also for a high price scenario, the conventional costing method is the most appropriate for heat demands at low temperature. However, for higher-temperature heat demands, the exergy costing method results in the highest revenues for the combined heat-and-power plant. The authors recommend the use of the novel levelized cost of exergy metric as different types of energy are priced with a single value. Depending on the amount of energy and the usefulness of the energy type, an appropriate cost can be allocated to each product of a multi-energy system.

Assessment of Methods for Forecasting Shale Gas Supply in China Based on Economic Considerations

Shale gas, with its lower carbon content and pollution potential, is the most promising natural gas resource in China. When modeling the shale gas supply in a specific gas field, it is of paramount importance to determine the gas supply under economic considerations. Two common calculation methods are used in China for this purpose: Method 1 (M1) is the breakeven analysis, where the gas supply is based on the relationship between costs and revenues, while Method 2 (M2) is the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model, where the supply relies on demand and price scenarios. No comparisons has been made between these two methods. In this study, the Fuling shale gas field in the Sichuan Basin was chosen as a study case to forecast the shale gas supply using these two different methods. A sensitivity analysis was performed to discuss the influencing factors of each method and error measures were used to compare the different shale gas supply values calculated by each method. The results shows that M1 is more sensitive to initial production, while M2 is more sensitive to gas price. In addition, M2 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at high price scenarios and M1 is considered to be reliable for low price scenarios with profit. This study can provide a quick and comprehensive assessment method for the shale gas supply in China.

Technology Focus: Field Development Projects (October 2017)

Technology Focus The new dynamics and strategies of field development are marked more than ever by the profitability considerations imposed by an extended period of low oil prices. The new market scenario has apparently cornered producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain their production volumes because reducing production to raise oil prices would trigger profitability levels for shale oil and nonconventional producers. Interweaved forces of precarious equilibrium affect field development and redevelopment plans. The papers presented at main SPE conferences are grounded in this reality, and I found that a staggering number of articles by researchers and service and producing companies are related to theoretical and real-data economic modeling, with approaches rarely seen before, where the long-term profitability has acquired prime weight. Early assessments of the future reservoir response to enhanced-recovery systems need more-detailed, -reliable, and -precise fore-casts to enable decisions of ever-more-demanding investors and stakeholders in international and national oil companies. Development/redevelopment plans for new and established oil fields of any kind undergo a detailed screening of future performance in low-price scenarios, and further challenges to cost arise when producing from frontier areas or from reservoirs with different maturity levels at the same time or with environmentally challenged production systems. The papers selected typify this new trend and exemplify several of the challenges experienced in new and mature oil fields. Paper SPE 181598 showcases challenges for offshore redevelopment in the Middle East to extend production for 25 years. Paper IPTC 18984 accounts for an incipient shale development in China, and paper SPE 182269 departs from the conventional net-present-value maximization and capital-expenditure minimization to explore alternative options for subsea-production-systems design. The industry is evolving to a more factual approach to profitability, with emphasis in modeling the long-term scenarios with detail. And this applies for developments in both mature and new fields. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 182632 Model-Based Well-Location Optimization—A Robust Approach by B.A. Ramirez, Shell, et al. OTC 27592 Johan Sverdrup—Creating a Unique Environment for Successful Drilling Operations in an Accelerating Spotlight Project by JÁkup øregaard, Statoil, et al. SPE 184848 Optimizing Well Spacing and Well Performance in the Piceance Basin Niobrara Formation by N. Li, Black Hills Exploration and Production, et al.

CO2 Emission Trading Effect on Baltic Electricity Market

This paper investigates the CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices of the Baltic market, as well as CO2 prices effect on merit order of generation sources and consequently marginal changes of CO2 emissions in response to changes in electricity demand. Authors use multiple regression analysis to demonstrate that a 1 EUR change in the price of CO2 emissions would increase the price of the Nordic power market by 0.55 EUR and in the Baltic countries by 0.67 EUR. Additionally, it has been shown that CO2 prices significantly impact merit order of electricity generators and consequently marginal emissions of CO2 due to reduction of electricity consumption in case of energy efficiency measures. Based on analysis, it can be concluded that, in the low price scenario (7.5 EUR per ton of CO2), combined heat and power plants are marginal generators emitting 0.25 tons of CO2 per 1MWh in cogeneration mode. If CO2 prices are above 20 EUR, the marginal emitter will become oil shale power plants that emit around 1 ton of CO2 per 1 MWh of electricity.

Technology Focus: Unconventional Resources (July 2015)

Technology Focus At this time in the industry, it is worth reflecting on what drove Steve Jobs, who was one of the most inspirational and innovative thinkers of recent times. Apple’s chief design officer, John Ive, had this to say about Jobs: “The defeat of cynicism. The rejection of reason. The rejection of being told 100 times, ‘You can’t do that.’ So his, I think, was a victory for beauty, for purity. And as he would say, ‘for giving a damn.’ ” With the industry downturn, the same resolve is necessary to find the technical solution that allows the unconventional business to thrive despite severe economic headwinds. And the past is evidence of our capabilities. In the mid-1990s, with low gas prices, ultratight gas was developed from vertical wells. Water-fracturing technology was developed in this economic environment. The large volumes of proppant previously used were proved not to be necessary in many reservoirs. Significant cost savings were the result, without noticeable effect on production. In this low-gas-price environment, fracture-staging methods were also developed that were cost effective and promoted operational efficiency, such as induced stress diversion. As gas prices improved in the early 2000s, the number of fracture stages increased. Methods such as flow-through fracture plugs were promoted, which, while costing more, led to more-effective cleanup and recovery. Finally, as gas prices continued to increase in the 2000s, horizontal wells increased dramatically in shale gas and then in shale oil. History shows that technology adapts to the economic conditions. The optimum technology in a high-price environment is not optimum for a low-price scenario. The only limit to unconventional development is our imagination. So, with a dramatic drop in oil price, unconventional-reservoir development is again ripe for innovation. The path to developing these new technologies requires a sustained focus on innovation and resilience to potential early setbacks. “And when the ideas didn’t come,” Ive continued about Jobs, “and when the prototypes failed, it was with great intent, with faith, he decided to believe we would eventually make something great.” Do you have the faith? JPT

Role of economics in developing fertilizer best management practices

To reduce agricultural water quality impacts, many US states and other countries rely on agricultural best management practices (BMPs). Although fertilizer BMP rates are supposed to ensure the economic viability of agricultural production, BMPs are frequently based on agronomic, rather than economic, research; moreover, some producers resist BMP adoption, citing profit reductions. In this study, we examine the effect of production and market risks, as well as producers’ risk aversion, on producers’ fertilizer rate and BMP adoption decisions. We focus on potato production in the Lower St. Johns River Basin, northern Florida. Using historical data, we estimate the linear stochastic plateau production function that explicitly incorporates production risks related to weather. We develop a financial model and use Monte Carlo simulation and empirical fertilizer and potato sale price distributions to estimate the distributions of ten-year net present values (NPVs) for alternative fertilizer rates. The results show that the preferred fertilizer rate depends on the assumption about potato sale prices and producers’ risk aversion levels. Risk-neutral producers prefer lower fertilizer rates than do risk-averse producers to avoid the downward risk caused by the high fertilizer expense and low yields. BMP adoption can also lead to profit loss when the BMP is designed for a low price scenario while market conditions are favorable. Hence, BMP development should be based on comprehensive analysis of production and market risks, as well as producers’ risk perceptions. It should also be recognized that to achieve water quality targets, BMP adoption may lead to reductions in profits if a subset of possible production and/or market conditions are realized. Insurance-type policies to compensate agricultural producers for the profit losses may be developed.

Evaluating sustainability options in an agricultural frontier of the Amazon using multi-criteria analysis

Agricultural expansion and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon are driven by a complex interaction between economic and demographic drivers and institutional constraints. Land use policies such as Conservation Units and the Forest Code law should conserve biodiversity and other environmental aspects while, on the other hand, increasing commodity prices of beef and soy, driven by world markets provokes economic growth and expansion of the agricultural area. We carried out an impact assessment in eleven municipalities within an agricultural frontier along the road BR-163 that runs in the Brazilian Amazon states of Mato-Grosso and Pará. The impact assessment, covered a period between 2008 and 2020, showed that the autonomous development in the study area results in a strong increase in the performance of economic indicators but a reduction in environmental and some social indicators. The studied conservation policies are able to reduce negative environmental impacts to some extent, while hardly affecting economic and social indicators. The multi-criteria analysis (MCA) showed a trade-off relation between the economic and environmental dimension in such a way that the effect was much stronger in the high commodity price scenario than in the low price scenario. The policy implications of the MCA results are discussed in light of the institutional capacity of the Brazilian States under study, to implement effective conservation policies.

Examining the impact of carbon price changes under a personalised carbon trading scheme for transport

The research presented in this paper investigates the welfare effects of a Personal Carbon Trading Scheme (PCTS). A consumer surplus analysis is used to determine the welfare loss to individuals who undertake travel-to-work trips in the Dublin and the Western Border Region (WBR) of Ireland. Three CO2 price scenarios are analysed: a low, medium and high carbon price. These results are compared at an aggregate level for each electoral division to existing measures of deprivation derived from the Census 2006 to determine if electoral wards designated as relatively deprived also incur the largest welfare losses. The results are also compared to the density of population in each electoral division to investigate any link between density levels and welfare changes, particularly in rural regions.The welfare model found a significant divergence in the changes in consumer surplus between both the study regions. While welfare changes were minimal in the low price scenario, divergences occurred in the medium and high price scenarios as individuals using more sustainable modes in urban areas benefited from the higher market price. Large welfare losses were found in the more rural WBR whilst most areas in Dublin were found to experience a welfare gain.

Risk-averse profit-based optimal operation strategy of a combined wind farm–cascade hydro system in an electricity market

There is a trend toward direct participation of wind farms in electricity markets. However, wind power is inherently intermittent and cannot be accurately predicted even in short time; thus increasing the imbalance costs paid by wind farm owners. To cope with these problems, some techniques have been proposed in literature including wind farm coupling to hydro units, energy storage facilities, and constructing a virtual power plant (VPP). This paper presents a stochastic profit-based model for day-ahead operational planning of a combined wind farm–cascade hydro system. The generation company (GenCo) that owns the VPP considers a portion of its hydro plants capacity to compensate the wind power forecast errors. The proposed optimization problem is a mixed integer linear programming (MILP), formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming model. The day-ahead scheduling is a here and now decision and the optimal operations of facilities are resources variables. In order to protect the GenCo against low price scenarios and wind power variation, the conditional value at risk (CVaR) is used as the risk aversion criterion. The proposed model is successfully applied to a real case study and the results are presented and discussed. The results are illustrated varying in the risk aversion level and the penalty coefficients for negative/positive imbalances. It is shown that the bidding strategy of the GenCo varies significantly depending on the chosen penalty market mechanism.

Oil supply between OPEC and non-OPEC based on game theory

The competing strategies between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC producers make the oil supply market a complex system, and thus, it is very difficult to model and to make predictions. In this paper, we combine the macro-model based on game theory and micro-model to propose a new approach for forecasting oil supply. We take into account the microscopic behaviour in the clearing market and also use the game relationships to adjust oil supplies in our approach. For the supply model, we analyse and consider the different behaviour of non-OPEC and OPEC producers. According to our analysis, limiting the oil supply, and thus maintaining oil price, is the best strategy for OPEC in the low-price scenario, while the rising supply is the best strategy in the high-price scenario. No matter what the oil price is, the dominant strategy for non-OPEC producers is to increase their oil supply. In the high-price scenario, OPEC will try to deplete non-OPEC’s share in the oil supply market, which is to OPEC’s advantage.

Combining alternative and conventional systems for environmental gains

AbstractTwo conventional cropping systems (winter wheat/dry peas and winter wheat/spring barley/dry peas) in the dryland grain region of southeastern Washington were compared with several alternative systems regarding profitability and environmental impacts. Two of the alternative systems use green manure crops and have low fertilizer and pesticide requirements. The remaining two are otherwise conventional rotations modified to include soil-building crops, bluegrass seed and rapeseed.Estimates of annual off-site erosion damage ranged from $6.56 to $20.50 per rotational acre, while on-site damage estimates ranged from $0.50 to $1.55 per rotational acre. Estimated leaching losses of pesticides to a water table 3.6 feet deep were negligible, but significant leaching losses of nitrate-N were predicted to occur from fall-applied inorganic fertilizer.Including bluegrass in a conventional grain rotation increased estimated net returns over variable costs by 16% and decreased soil loss by 33% compared with the most profitable conventional rotation. The next most profitable alternative system, rapeseed plus a conventional grain rotation, had slightly higher net returns over variable costs than the second most profitable conventional rotation, with slightly less soil loss. When fixed costs of machinery depreciation and land are included, the alternative systems fared relatively better. An experimental wheat/pea/medic system had higher projected net returns over total costs than the most profitable conventional rotation, while averaging just one-third as much soil loss per year. A wheat/barley/sweetclover green manure rotation was similar in profitability to the less profitable conventional rotation, but had only two-thirds as much soil loss.We constructed a mixed-integer linear programming model to determine the profitmaximizing combination of conventional and alternative rotations under 1990 farm bill provisions. Planting all or nearly all land to the bluegrass plus conventional grain rotation maximized returns over total costs for high, medium, and low program crop price scenarios. Farmers maximized profit by participating in both the wheat and barley programs under the low price scenario, only in the wheat program with moderate prices, and in neither the wheat nor the barley program under the high price scenario.

World Energy Outlook through 1995

A worldwide glut of petroleum will continue to put downward pressure on oil prices in the years ahead. Though the extent of price decline is difficult to predict, the author projects three separate scenarios based on market conditions prevailing in July 1985. The author thinks OPEC is likely to change its past strategy by emphasizing market share rather than price stability. In direct contrast to its current policy, the organization may announce a production floor rather than a ceiling and thus relegate the task of maintaining the price to non -OPEC producers. The Most-Likely Scenario assumes the price for OPEC's benchmark crude oil will decline from $28 a barrel in 1985 to $23 by 1987. It will remain there until 1990 and then increase only at the rate of inflation to $30.78 (current dollars) a barrel in 1995. This scenario assumes OPEC will refuse to lower its production quota from its current level of 16 million barrels a day. Under the Low-Price Scenario, Arab Light declines to $15 a barrel by 1987, gradually climbs to $20 a barrel by 1990, and $26 a barrel by 1995. This projection assumes a further deterioration of discipline within OPEC, resulting possibly in a loss of membership. The High-Price Scenario foresees Arab Light declining to $26 a barrel by 1987, remaining there until 1990, and then increasing by the rate of inflation to $36.47 by 1995. An environment of simultaneous rapid economic expansion and spiraling inflation would make this scenario probable.