Lower Mean Temperature Research Articles

Impact of Season, Environmental Temperature, and Humidity on Raynaud Phenomenon in an Australian Systemic Sclerosis Cohort.

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of season, temperature and humidity on the severity of Raynaud phenomenon (RP) in systemic sclerosis. Data from the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study were used to assess associations of patient-reported worsened RP in the month preceding each study visit. Mean monthly weather data were obtained from the closest weather station to the patient's address. We evaluated the relationship between worsened RP and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measured using the Short Form 36 instrument. Among 1,972 patients with systemic sclerosis, RP was a near-universal finding, and worsened RP in the preceding month was reported in 26.7% of 9,175 visits. "Worsened RP" showed significant environmental variability. On multivariable analysis, worsened RP was associated with low mean maximum temperatures (odds ratio [OR] 0.91, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.90-0.92, P < 0.001), high relative humidity (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.05, P < 0.001) and lower mean daily evaporation (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.73-0.81, P < 0.001). Worsened RP was strongly associated with telangiectasia, calcinosis, and digital ulceration, as well as demonstrating an association with anticentromere antibody and gastroesophageal reflux disease and a negative correlation with diffuse disease. Worsened RP was also strongly associated with worse HRQoL. Lower environmental temperature and higher relative humidity had significant associations with worsened RP in this systemic sclerosis cohort, suggesting an important role for dry warmth in managing this condition.

Effect of various temperature indicators on patients' hospitalization with cardiovascular diseases in Zhangye city, China.

This study assessed the impact of various temperature indices, including mean temperature (MT), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN) on hospitalization rates for cardiovascular system diseases among residents of Zhangye City, a typical western city in China. The Quasi-Poisson generalized additive regression model (GAM) in conjunction with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to estimate the association of temperature indices with CVD hospitalization rates in Zhangye City during the periods of 2015-2021. The exposure-response relationship and relative risk were discussed and stratified analyses by age and gender were conducted. We found that the hospitalization rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients in Zhangye City was significantly related to different temperature indicators (MT, DTR, TCN). Both low and high MT, DTR, and TCN increased the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among residents. Besides, different demographic populations exhibited distinct sensitivities to temperature conditions. Relevant authorities should devise corresponding preventive and control measures to protect vulnerable populations.

Distance From Nest and Climate Explain Geographical Trends of Harvester Ant's Food Resource Use: A Multi‐Species Approach

ABSTRACTMainAnimals not only forage for abundant and nearby resources, but their diets can also be influenced by abiotic and geographic factors. This often results in non‐random interactions among species. We investigate how seed density, distance from nest, abiotic (e.g., climate stability, temperature, precipitation) and geographic factors (e.g., latitude, elevation and continental hemisphere) influence the removal of food items (i.e., seeds and dead arthropods) by Pogonomyrmex species.LocationSouth and North America, from Patagonia to the Rocky Mountains.TaxonGenus Pogonomyrmex (Formicidae: Hymenoptera).MethodsConducting standardised experiments, we performed a seed removal experiment and an assessment of the items retrieved by ant workers of 160 nests from eight Pogonomyrmex spp. at 16 sites extending the American continent.ResultsPogonomyrmex ants native to North America removed more seeds than their South American counterpart. In general, results align with optimal foraging theory, indicating a higher probability of seed removal near ant nests. High climate stability correlated with lower seed predation rates, emphasising seed consumption's significance in historically arid environments. Increased precipitation and temperature led to reduced removal of food resources, suggesting reduced water availability and lower mean temperatures increases the consumption of seeds by harvester ants.ConclusionsOverall, Pogonomyrmex ants' food resource use is influenced by a combination of factors such as region, distance from the nest and climate. This study underscores harvester ants' potential impact on plant distribution over large spatial scales consuming seeds from the immediate proximity of their nest and preventing establishment.

Long-term effects of meteorological factors on severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome incidence in eastern China from 2014 to 2020: An ecological time-series study.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne disease with susceptibility influenced by meteorological factors. However, there is limited understanding of the delayed and interactive impacts of meteorological factors on SFTS incidence. Daily incidence data of SFTS and corresponding meteorological factors for the Jiaodong Peninsula in northeast China were collected from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020. Random forest regression model, based on custom search, was performed to compare the importance of meteorological factors. Generalized additive model with quasi-Poisson regression was conducted to examine the nonlinear relationships and interactive effects using penalized spline methods. A distributed lag nonlinear model with quasi-Poisson regression was constructed to estimate exposure-lag effects of meteorological factors. The most important meteorological factor was weekly mean lowest temperature. The relationship between meteorological factors and SFTS incidence revealed a nonlinear and intricate pattern. Interaction analyses showed that prolonged sunshine duration posed a climatic risk within a specific temperature range for SFTS incidence. The maximum relative risk (RR) observed under extremely low temperature (-4°C) was 1.33 at lag of 15 week, while under extremely high temperature (25°C), the minimum RR was 0.65 at lag of 13 week. The RRs associated with both extremely high and low sunshine duration escalated with an increase in lag weeks. This study underscores that meteorological factors exert nonlinear, delayed, and interactive effects on SFTS incidence. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the dependency of SFTS incidence on meteorological factors in particular climates.

Filling latitudinal gaps in Tachycineta swallows: reproductive strategies in a South American species

ABSTRACT Chilean swallows (Tachycineta leucopyga) are the southernmost swallows in the Tachycineta genus, breeding from central Chile to southern Chile and Argentina. Studies focused on a population breeding at 54°S in Tierra del Fuego, revealed differences in life-history traits compared to their Northern Hemisphere congeners, such as smaller clutch size, and greater male nest attendance during the incubation period. To assess the consistency of these patterns for the species, we studied breeding biology and parental care of Chilean swallows in Northwestern Argentine Patagonia (41°S). If austral population breeding traits reflect species traits, we predict smaller clutch size, higher female reproductive investment, and similar nest attendance by both sexes during incubation compared to Tachycineta species breeding at similar Northern Hemisphere latitudes. We also anticipate negative correlation between clutch size, egg size, and breeding success with laying date, as observed in Tachycineta species, including Chilean swallows. Surprisingly, clutch and egg sizes did not differ between northern and southern Patagonian populations. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between clutch or egg size and laying date. Male nest attendance during incubation was variable and low, but their nestlings feeding rates equalled those of females. These findings suggest that Chilean swallows adopt diverse reproductive strategies across regions. This may help this species adapt to different environments and climates, ranging from the shorter breeding seasons and lower summer mean temperatures of Tierra del Fuego to the longer breeding seasons and higher seasonal and daily thermal amplitudes in continental north Andean Patagonia.

Unveiling differential thermal sensitivities in marine phytoplankton within the China Seas

AbstractIn this study, we explored the realized thermal sensitivities of various phytoplankton groups in natural seawater, a crucial aspect for understanding the dynamics of marine ecosystems under climate change. Utilizing a decadal pigment dataset (2002–2015) from China Seas and employing generalized additive mixed models coupled with maximum entropy modeling, we discerned thermal sensitivity differentiations among nine phytoplankton groups, encompassing the full‐size spectrum. Our findings revealed that cryptophytes were exceptionally thermally sensitive, with a strong correlation between temperature changes and biomass variance. Characterized by a preference for cooler waters, cryptophytes had a low mean temperature niche and a narrow niche breadth. Notably, they exhibited the lowest temperature tipping point, highlighting their heightened vulnerability to warming trends. These findings underscored the significance of cryptophytes, an often‐overlooked group, in understanding ecosystem responses to climate shifts, and emphasized their potential role as key indicators in marine ecological studies under global warming.

Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy

Abstract. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly being discussed as a potential tool to reduce global and regional temperatures to buy time for conventional carbon mitigation measures to take effect. However, most simulations to date assume SRM to be an additive component to the climate change toolbox, without any physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. In this study we analyze one aspect of this coupling: how renewable energy (RE) capacity, and therefore decarbonization rates, may be affected under SRM deployment by modification of photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) production potential. Simulated 1 h output from the Earth system model CNRM-ESM2-1 for scenario-based experiments is used for the assessment. The SRM scenario uses stratospheric aerosol injections (SAIs) to approximately lower global mean temperature from the high-emission scenario SSP585 baseline to the moderate-emission scenario SSP245. We find that by the end of the century, most regions experience an increased number of low PV and CSP energy weeks per year under SAI compared to SSP245. Compared to SSP585, while the increase in low energy weeks under SAI is still dominant on a global scale, certain areas may benefit from SAI and see fewer low PV or CSP energy weeks. A substantial part of the decrease in potential with SAI compared to the SSP scenarios is compensated for by optically thinner upper-tropospheric clouds under SAI, which allow more radiation to penetrate towards the surface. The largest relative reductions in PV potential are seen in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Our study suggests that using SAI to reduce high-end global warming to moderate global warming could pose increased challenges for meeting energy demand with solar renewable resources.

Gender disparities in thermal responses under vertical air temperature differences

The effects of vertical temperature differences (VTD) on human thermal comfort have attracted growing attention from researchers when utilizing split air conditioners for winter heating. This study underscores the need to investigate the influences of gender disparities in the context of significant vertical temperature variations, a critical aspect that has not yet been comprehensively explored. Twenty gender-balanced subjects were exposed to a variety of stratified thermal environments created by a split air-conditioner. Their overall and local perceptual and physiological responses were measured at various operative temperatures and VTD. Results show that females have lower thermal sensation vote (TSV) and mean skin temperature under the same environments compared to males. Neutral operative temperatures of females and males are 23.7 ˚C and 20.8 ˚C, respectively. On the cold side, lower leg and foot thermal sensations are dominant whereas chest and back are dominant on the warm side. When females rated “slightly warm” (TSV equaled 1) or “warm” (TSV equaled 2), or males rated “slightly cool” (TSV equaled −1), increased VTD can lower thermal acceptability. The research findings have significant implications for the understanding of gender requirements of stratified heating environments and for maximizing the thermal comfort of the two genders.

Spatial spillover effect of environmental factors on the tuberculosis occurrence among the elderly: a surveillance analysis for nearly a dozen years in eastern China

BackgroundIn many areas of China, over 30% of tuberculosis cases occur among the elderly. We aimed to investigate the spatial distribution and environmental factors that predicted the occurence of tuberculosis in this group.MethodsData were collected on notified pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases aged ≥ 65 years in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2021. We performed spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal scan statistics to determine the clusters of epidemics. Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) analysis was used to identify significant environmental factors and their spatial spillover effects.Results77,405 cases of PTB among the elderly were notified, showing a decreasing trend in the notification rate. Spatial-temporal analysis showed clustering of epidemics in the western area of Zhejiang Province. The results of the SDM indicated that a one-unit increase in PM2.5 led to a 0.396% increase in the local notification rate. The annual mean temperature and precipitation had direct effects and spatial spillover effects on the rate, while complexity of the shape of the greenspace (SHAPE_AM) and SO2 had negative spatial spillover effects.ConclusionTargeted interventions among the elderly in Western Zhejiang may be more efficient than broad, province-wide interventions. Low annual mean temperature and high annual mean precipitation in local and neighboring areas tend to have higher PTB onset among the elderly.

Contrasting invasion patterns of two closely related Solidago alien species

AbstractAimNew areas are often simultaneously invaded by closely related alien species; however, between‐species differences in the course of their invasive spreading due to diverse ecological preferences have rarely been investigated. Here, we aim to study the species‐specific spatio‐temporal invasion patterns of Solidago canadensis and S. gigantea.LocationSlovakia—the Western Carpathian and adjacent Pannonian regions.TaxonInvasive alien Solidago canadensis and S. gigantea.MethodsOur study was based on revised herbarium specimens, a recent field survey which included gathering abundance and habitat data, and environmental data from GIS layers. We characterised the environmental niche differentiation between S. canadensis and S. gigantea. Generalised additive models were then used to identify the key drivers of the species' occurrences and to assess their potential current and future distributions.ResultsBoth species began to spread in Slovakia in the 1850s; in the first 100 years, the number of S. gigantea sites increased exponentially, while that of S. canadensis remained low. Currently, S. canadensis is more widespread in the region. The species have similar habitat preferences. Their environmental niches overlap, but are not identical. The core distribution of S. canadensis is in foothills and valleys that experience lower annual mean temperatures, while that of S. gigantea is in lowlands with higher annual mean temperatures. A large part of their potential distribution areas seems to be already invaded. Possible future climate change could stimulate the spreading of S. canadensis into higher altitudes and S. gigantea farther into lowlands and Carpathian foothills.Main conclusionsThe studied invasive Solidago species differed considerably in the early stages of invasion. Their environmental niches, current realised and potential distribution patterns are different. In the studied region, further spreading, with an increase in the number and size of populations, is likely unless effective measures are undertaken.

Bactericera tremblayi (Wagner, 1961) (Hemiptera: Triozidae): The Prevalent Psyllid Species in Leek Fields of Northwestern Spain.

Bactericera tremblayi (Wagner, 1961) (Hemiptera: Triozidae), the onion and leek psyllid, belongs to the Bactericera nigricornis Förster complex, along with B. trigonica and B. nigricornis. In contrast to the other two species, there has been a notable absence of studies examining the distribution and seasonal occurrence of B. tremblayi, despite its association with significant issues in leek crops. Surveys were conducted between 2017 and 2020 in the main leek-growing area of Castile and Leon (Spain). An extensive survey encompassing 29 distinct plots was monitored with sweep nets and visual inspection, counting plants with immature forms at three times in the crop cycle. Additionally, a total of seven seasonal monitoring surveys were conducted in the same area of study. Plots were monitored every ten days, employing three distinct sampling methods including horizontal green tile water traps, sweep nets, and visual inspection, counting the juvenile stages by plant. The results revealed that B. tremblayi predominated as the primary species of jumping plant-lice in leek crops throughout the entire crop cycle. To date, there exists no documented incidence of pathogenic agents within symptomatic leeks. Consequently, the manifestation of severe symptoms is highly likely to be a direct consequence of the feeding activity of the onion psyllid. Populations of B. tremblayi were present in leek crops from May-July to harvest (September-November). Adults were captured in horizontal green water traps several days before they were found in sweep net samples, making the former effective in capturing early immigrant individuals. The maximum peaks of B. tremblayi were observed at the end of the crop cycle, particularly during late-season cycles characterized by lower mean temperatures. During observations made in a controlled environment, temperature exerted a significant influence on the developmental time of all stages of B. tremblayi. The complete development from egg to adult occurred within a temperature range of 15 to 25 °C. At 30 °C, the survival of eggs and N1 nymphs was limited and B. tremblayi did not complete its developmental cycle. The optimum temperature for the development of B. tremblayi provided by the models used was close to 24 °C with the application of Briere, Taylor, and Lactin models and around 21 °C with the SSI model. These results provided a good adjustment in predicting the survival patterns of B. tremblayi under the studied environmental conditions.

Effects of temperature and humidity on cerebrovascular disease hospitalization in a super-aging society

Weather conditions influence the incidence of cardiovascular disease. However, few studies have investigated the association between weather temperature and humidity and cerebrovascular disease hospitalizations in a super-aging society. We included 606,807 consecutive patients with cerebrovascular disease admitted to Japanese acute-care hospitals between 2015 and 2019. The primary outcome was the number of cerebrovascular disease hospitalizations per day. Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models were used to estimate the association of mean temperature and humidity, 1 day before hospital admission, with cerebrovascular disease hospitalizations, after adjusting for air pollution, hospital, and patient demographics. Lower mean temperatures and humidity < 70% or humidity ≧ 70% are associated with an increased incidence of cerebrovascular disease hospitalization (coefficient, − 1.442 [− 1.473 to − 1.411] per °C, p < 0.001, coefficient, − 0.084 [− 0.112 to − 0.056] per%, p < 0.001, and coefficient, 0.136 [0.103 to 0.168] per %, p < 0.001, respectively). Lower mean temperatures and extremely lower or higher humidity are associated with an increased incidence of cerebrovascular disease hospitalization in a super-aging society.

Mechanistic understanding of how temperature and its variability shape body size composition in moth assemblages

Abstract Understanding how climate affects trait composition within a biological assemblage is critical for assessing and eventually mitigating climate change impacts on the assemblage and its ecological functioning. While body size is a fundamental trait of animals as it affects many aspects of species' biology and ecology, it remains unclear through what mechanisms temperature and its variability influence within‐assemblage body size variation. This study aims to understand how temperature and its variability shape body size variations in animal assemblages and potentially affect assemblages' vulnerability to climate change. Using &gt;5300 individuals of 680 macromoth species collected from 13 assemblages along a ca. 3000 m elevational gradient in Taiwan, we examined (1) the strength of environmental filtering and niche partitioning in determining the intra‐ and inter‐specific size variations within an assemblage, and (2) the effects of mean temperature and the daily and seasonal temperature variabilities on the strength of the two processes. We found that the body size composition was strongly affected by temperature and its seasonality via both processes. High temperature seasonality enhanced niche partitioning, causing within‐population size convergence. In contrast, low mean temperature and low seasonality both enhanced environmental filtering, causing within‐assemblage size convergence. However, while low temperature restricted the lower size limit within an assemblage, low seasonality restricted both lower and upper size limits. This study indicates an overlooked but important role of temperature seasonality in shaping intra‐ and inter‐specific size variations in moth assemblages through both environmental filtering and niche partitioning. With rising temperatures and amplifying seasonality around the globe, potentially weakened filtering forces may increase the size variation within assemblages, reinforcing the assemblage‐level resilience. Nevertheless, enhanced niche partitioning may limit size variation within populations, which may increase the population‐level vulnerability to environmental changes. This study improves the mechanistic understanding of the climatic effects on trait composition in animal assemblages and provides essential information for biodiversity conservation under climate change. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Presentation Rates for Acute Pharyngitis in the Emergency Room Are Influenced by Extreme Weather Events.

Extreme weather events are becoming more prevalent with the increasing pace of climate change. These events negatively impact human health and put considerable strain on health care resources, including emergency departments. Within otolaryngology, acute pharyngitis is a common reason for emergency room visits (ERV). Therefore, we aimed to investigate the impact of extreme meteorological conditions on ERV rates related to acute pharyngitis. Retrospective time-series study. ERVs related to acute pharyngitis (n = 1511) were identified at a tertiary care hospital in Vienna, Austria, between 2015 and 2018. The effects of single-day and prolonged (3-day) extreme weather events on ERVs were analyzed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. Relative risk (RR) and cumulative relative risk (cRR) were calculated over a lag period of 14 days. RR refers to the risk for pharyngitis-related ERV at extreme conditions (1st, 5th, 95th, or 99th percentile) compared to the risk at median conditions. Same-day RR (lag0) was elevated more than 3-fold after prolonged extremely low mean temperatures (P = .028). Furthermore, same-day RR after single-day and prolonged extremely high relative humidity was elevated by 51% (P = .024) and 46% (P = .036), respectively. Significant delayed effects on cRR were observed for extreme mean temperatures, relative humidity, and mean wind speeds within 8 days and for extreme atmospheric pressure within 14 days. Extreme weather events impact ERV rates for acute pharyngitis. Extremely low temperatures, high relative humidity, high atmospheric pressure, and low and high wind speeds were risk-promoting factors.

Abstract 12628: Effects of Temperature and Humidity on Cerebrovascular Disease Hospitalization in a Super-Aging Society

Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is known as one of the leading causes of death and disability in the elderly worldwide. Although weather was reported as predictor with cardiovascular disease, it was few evidence with cerebrovascular disease in Japan. Hypothesis: The weather is correlate with cerebrovascular disease hospitalizations. Methods: The Japanese registry of all cardiac and vascular diseases database includes patients with cardio-cerebrovascular disease who required hospitalization and constitutes a nationwide dataset in Japan. This study included 4,998,541 consecutive patients with cardio-cerebrovascular disease requiring hospitalization were admitted between 2015 and 2019. We investigated the relationship between cerebrovascular disease hospitalization and temperature, or humidity. Results: Data were collected from 606,807consecutive patients with cerebrovascular disease admitted. In this study population, the median age was 75.0 (66.0-83.0) years and 55.8% of subjects were male. The mean weather temperature and humidity 1 day before cerebrovascular disease hospitalization were 17.2 °C and 69%, respectively. Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models showed the association of temperature and humidity with cerebrovascular disease hospitalizations after adjusting for air pollution, hospital, and patient demographics. Lower mean temperatures and humidity &lt;70% or humidity ≧70% are associated with an increased incidence of cerebrovascular disease hospitalization (coefficient, -1.442 [-1.473 to -1.411] per °C, p&lt;0.001, coefficient, -0.084 [-0.112 to -0.056] per%, p &lt; 0.001, and coefficient, 0.136 [0.103 to 0.168] per %, p &lt; 0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Lower mean temperatures and extremely lower or higher humidity are both associated with an increased incidence of cerebrovascular disease hospitalization in the aging society of Japan.

Association between air temperature and risk of hospitalization for genitourinary disorders: An environmental epidemiological study in Lanzhou, China.

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between air temperature and the risk of hospitalization for genitourinary disorders. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to estimate the association between air temperature and the risk of hospitalization for genitourinary disorders, with subgroup analysis by gender and age to identify the susceptible population of temperature-sensitive genitourinary system diseases. Low mean temperature (MT) (RR = 2.001, 95% CI: 1.856~2.159), high MT (RR = 2.884, 95% CI: 2.621~3.173) and low diurnal temperature range (DTR) (RR = 1.619, 95% CI: 1.508~1.737) were all associated with the increased risk of hospitalization for genitourinary disorders in the total population analysis, and the high MT effect was stronger than the low MT effect. Subgroup analysis found that high MT was more strongly correlated in male (RR = 2.998, 95% CI: 2.623~3.427) and those <65 years (RR = 3.003, 95% CI: 2.670~3.344), and low DTR was more strongly correlated in female (RR = 1.669, 95% CI: 1.510~1.846) and those <65 years (RR = 1.643, 95% CI: 1.518~1.780). The effect of high MT on the risk of hospitalization for genitourinary disorders is more significant than that of low MT. DTR was independently associated with the risk of hospitalization for genitourinary disorders.

Coated Cast Saw Blades Decrease Blade Temperature During Cast Removal.

Thermal injuries can occur during cast removal with an oscillating saw. The purpose of this study is to describe the effect of blade material, blade wear, and cast material on blade temperature. Short arm plaster and fiberglass casts were cured overnight and bivalved with either new or worn stainless-steel or tungsten-disulfide coated blades. Blade use was defined as removing 1 short arm cast. Blades used to remove more than 20 casts were defined as worn. Ten trials were performed with each combination of blade material, blade wear, and cast material, except for the combination of fiberglass and a worn stainless-steel blade due to complete erosion of cutting teeth. Thirty casts were removed with stainless-steel blades, and 40 casts were removed with coated blades. Blade temperature was measured continuously at 5Hz using a T-type thermocouple and microcontroller board. A Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the mean maximum temperature between groups. For plaster casts, new and worn stainless-steel blades produced mean maximum temperatures of 51.4°C and 63.7°C (P=0.003), respectively. New stainless-steel blades produced significantly higher mean maximum temperatures on fiberglass casts than plaster casts (95.9°C vs. 51.4°C, P<.001). For plaster casts, new and worn coated blades produced mean maximum temperatures of 56.9°C and 53.8°C (P=0.347). For fiberglass casts, new and worn coated blades produced mean maximum temperatures of 76.6°C and 77.7°C (P=0.653). As with new stainless-steel blades, new coated blades produced significantly higher mean maximum temperatures on fiberglass than plaster (76.6°C vs. 56.9°C, P<0.001). Mean maximum temperatures between new stainless-steel and coated blades during removal of plaster casts were 51.4°C and 56.9°C (P=0.131), respectively. However, new coated blades demonstrated significantly lower mean maximum temperatures during fiberglass cast removal compared to new stainless-steel blades (76.6°C vs. 95.9°C, P=0.016). Coated blades outperformed stainless-steel in nearly all combinations. We recommend limited use of stainless-steel blades to minimize blade temperatures during cast removal. Appropriate selection of blade material and monitoring blade wear minimizes blade temperature during cast removal.

Establishment and validation of a prognosis nomogram for MIMIC-III patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with hepatic encephalopathy

IntroduceThe purpose of this study was to establish a comprehensive prognosis nomogram for patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the intensive care unit (ICU) and to evaluate the predictive value of the nomogram.MethodThis study analyzed 620 patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with HE from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III(MIMIC-III) database. The patients were randomly divided into two groups in a 7-to-3 ratio to form a training cohort (n = 434) and a validation cohort (n = 176). Cox regression analyses were used to identify associated risk variables. Based on the multivariate Cox regression model results, a nomogram was established using associated risk predictor variables to predict the 90-day survival rate of patients with cirrhosis complicated with HE. The new model was compared with the Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scoring model in terms of the concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThis study showed that older age, higher mean heart rate, lower mean arterial pressure, lower mean temperature, higher SOFA score, higher RDW, and the use of albumin were risk factors for the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with HE. The use of proton pump inhibitors (PPI) was a protective factor. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the C-index, AUC, IDI value, NRI value, and DCA curve, showing that the nomogram was superior to that of the SOFA model alone. Calibration curve results showed that the nomogram had excellent calibration capability. The decision curve analysis confirmed the good clinical application ability of the nomogram.ConclusionThis study is the first study of the 90-day survival rate prediction of cirrhotic patients with HE in ICU through the data of the MIMIC-III database. It is confirmed that the eight-factor nomogram has good efficiency in predicting the 90-day survival rate of patients.

Detection and Assessment of Changing Drought Events in China in the Context of Climate Change Based on the Intensity–Area–Duration Algorithm

Drought can have a significant impact on both society and the economy, resulting in issues such as scarcity of water and shortages of food and energy, as well as elevated health risks. However, as global temperatures continue to rise, the impact of drought events is increasingly exacerbated, manifested by an increase in the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent of their effects. Therefore, studying the changing characteristics of drought events with the background of climate change is of great significance. Based on the high-precision and high-resolution CN05.1 dataset, this study obtained the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) dataset from 1961 to 2020, and then identified regional drought events in China using the Intensity–Area–Duration (IAD) method, which considers both temporal continuity and spatial dynamics. On this basis, the spatiotemporal variations in frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area of drought events in China and its seven subregions were analyzed. The results showed that the subregions located in the northern region of China generally have lower mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures than those located in the southern region, but the associated interannual change rate of the subregions in the north is higher than that in the south. As for the annual total precipitation, results show a clear pattern of decreasing southeast–northwest gradient, with an increasing trend in the northern subregions and a decreasing trend in the southern subregions except for the subregion south China (SC). The northeast of China (NE), SC, the southwest of China (SW) and north China (NC) are the regions with a high frequency of drought events in China, while the frequency of drought events in NW and Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), although lower, is on a significantly increasing trend, and the increasing rate is higher than for the other regions. For drought intensity, Xinjiang (XJ) and QTP had greater drought intensity, and the change rate of these regions with greater drought intensity was also greater. The drought impact area in China showed a significant increasing trend, mainly concentrated in QTP, NW and NE. Particular attention needs to be focused on the southwest of QTP, where drought events in this region show a significant increase in frequency, intensity, duration and impact area.

Toward understanding land use land cover changes and their effects on land surface temperature in yam production area, Côte d'Ivoire, Gontougo Region, using remote sensing and machine learning tools (Google Earth Engine)

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are one of the main factors contributing to ecosystem degradation and global climate change. This study used the Gontougo Region as a study area, which is fast changing in land occupation and most vulnerable to climate change. The machine learning (ML) method through Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a widely used technique for the spatiotemporal evaluation of LULC changes and their effects on land surface temperature (LST). Using Landsat 8 OLI and TIRS images from 2015 to 2022, we analyzed vegetation cover using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and computed LST. Their correlation was significant, and the Pearson correlation (r) was negative for each correlation over the year. The correspondence of the NDVI and LST reclassifications has also shown that non-vegetation land corresponds to very high temperatures (34.33°C–45.22°C in 2015 and 34.26°C–45.81°C in 2022) and that high vegetation land corresponds to low temperatures (17.33°C–28.77°C in 2015 and 16.53 29.11°C in 2022). Moreover, using a random forest algorithm (RFA) and Sentinel-2 images for 2015 and 2022, we obtained six LULC classes: bareland and settlement, forest, waterbody, savannah, annual crops, and perennial crops. The overall accuracy (OA) of each LULC map was 93.77% and 96.01%, respectively. Similarly, the kappa was 0.87 in 2015 and 0.92 in 2022. The LULC classes forest and annual crops lost 48.13% and 65.14%, respectively, of their areas for the benefit of perennial crops from 2015 to 2022. The correlation between LULC and LST showed that the forest class registered the low mean temperature (28.69°C in 2015 and 28.46°C in 2022), and the bareland/settlement registered the highest mean temperature (35.18°C in 2015 and 35.41°C in 2022). The results show that high-resolution images can be used for monitoring biophysical parameters in vegetation and surface temperature and showed benefits for evaluating food security.