Low Levels Of Human Development Research Articles

Prevención y detección precoz del cáncer cervicouterino

Cervical cancer is a global health challenge, with high incidence and mortality rates, particularly in countries with lower levels of human development. The progression of cervical cancer is well understood, from human papillomavirus infection to precancerous lesions and invasive cancer. This disease can be prevented through effective vaccination and early detection programs, which allow timely treatments, especially for pre-invasive conditions. In 2020, the World Health Organization launched a global initiative to eliminate cervical cancer, introducing the 90-70-90 strategy. This intervention seeks 90% vaccination coverage in girls under 15 years of age, at least two HPV screenings before the age of 45, and timely treatment for 90% of diagnosed patients. This paper aims to describe national and international updates in cervical cancer prevention, highlighting the progress of primary and secondary prevention with regards to decreasing its incidence.

Indian Cervical Cancers: Understanding of Epidemiological Profile through the National Cancer Registry Programs Findings

Abstract: According to a recent analysis from the Lancet research, India has the highest rate of cervical cancer malignancies in all of Asia. The study claims that India alone is responsible for 23% of cervical cancer-related deaths in Asia. According to the GLOBOCAN report 2020, India has a high mortality rate of 62.42%, which is higher than that of both Asia and the rest of the globe. Due to the severe lack of resources, cervical cancer is a big issue in India. Based on an analysis of data from a significant cancer registry network, this study investigates the epidemiological characteristics of cervical cancer in India in great detail. In accordance with the PBCR 2020 (ICMR-NCDIR; 2020), the truncated rate (TR) in the districts of Aizawl, Dibrugarh, and Kollam was six times, five times, and four times larger, respectively, than the TR rate in the districts of Papumpare, Mizoram, and Pasighat. In the entire country, we discovered considerable regional and socioeconomic variations in the incidence of cervical cancer, with a clear gradient of increased incidence in areas with lower levels of human development. Combining HIV testing and cervical cancer screening during a single appointment with a primary care provider would be a cost-effective option.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s higher education: investment decisions on human capital in the presence of youth unemployment

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationship between unemployment and higher education participation. By using panel data covering 40 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2020, we opt to use a well-developed dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimator. The findings show that the youth unemployment rate has an inverse relationship with higher education enrollment in SSA and more specifically in countries with a low level of human development, independently of gender considerations. However, youth unemployment has a positive but not significant effect on enrollment in the medium-/high-level countries. They also show that youth unemployment positively relates to students’ dropping out. These results imply that improvement is possible in the higher education sector if policymakers would consistently target lower unemployment rates.

Multi‐level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Abstract Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land‐use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresholds might vary across levels of selection. We evaluated multi‐level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from 765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and associated measures of land‐use availability, we used functional‐response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. We found individual and level‐specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second‐order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third‐order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth‐order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture. Synthesis and applications. Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of understanding variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land‐use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

Determinants of transnational organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of socio-economic drivers

The article analyzes the socio-economic factors that determine the development of transnational organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean. The reasons for the development of this phenomenon in the region can be divided into poor governance, corruption, low level of human development, problems of inequality and social mobility, as well as the geostrategic position of the countries of the region. The article focuses on the comparison of the most and least vulnerable to organized crime countries in Latin America. The author concludes that the most common factors are weak state institutions, high levels of corruption and social inequality, and insufficient effectiveness of anti-money laundering measures. Venezuela, Mexico, Haiti and some other countries in the region are particularly vulnerable. To mitigate the risks, the author proposes a comprehensive approach that includes strengthening institutions, the rule of law, and combating corruption and inequality. The work makes a significant contribution to understanding the causes of the growth of organized crime in Latin America.

Cure for Corruption: a High HDI Score?

This study examines the relationship between human development and corruption in a country. A multivariate statistical analysis drawing on data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) for 41 countries over a 28-year period indicates that increases in a country’s HDI score is associated with significant declines in perceived corruption in that country. However, this relationship is not linear; above a certain point, improvements in HDI scores do not lead to further falls in corruption levels. For countries with lower levels of human development, investments in healthcare, education, and living standards can markedly reduce the extent of corrupt conduct there.

Global estimates of incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in 2020: a baseline analysis of the WHO Global Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative

Tracking progress and providing timely evidence is a fundamental step forward for countries to remain aligned with the targets set by WHO to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem (ie, to reduce the incidence of the disease below a threshold of 4 cases per 100 000 women-years). We aimed to assess the extent of global inequalities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality, based on The Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2020 estimates, including geographical and socioeconomic development, and temporal aspects. For this analysis, we used the GLOBOCAN 2020 database to estimate the age-specific and age-standardised incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer per 100 000 women-years for 185 countries or territories aggregated across the 20 UN-defined world regions, and by four-tier levels of the Human Development Index (HDI). Time trends (1988-2017) in incidence were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) plus database. Mortality estimates were obtained using the most recent national vital registration data from WHO. Globally in 2020, there were an estimated 604 127 cervical cancer cases and 341 831 deaths, with a corresponding age-standardised incidence of 13·3 cases per 100 000 women-years (95% CI 13·3-13·3) and mortality rate of 7·2 deaths per 100 000 women-years (95% CI 7·2-7·3). Cervical cancer incidence ranged from 2·2 (1·9-2·4) in Iraq to 84·6 (74·8-94·3) in Eswatini. Mortality rates ranged from 1·0 (0·8-1·2) in Switzerland to 55·7 (47·7-63·7) in Eswatini. Age-standardised incidence was highest in Malawi (67·9 [95% CI 65·7 -70·1]) and Zambia (65·5 [63·0-67·9]) in Africa, Bolivia (36·6 [35·0-38·2]) and Paraguay (34·1 [32·1-36·1]) in Latin America, Maldives (24·5 [17·0-32·0]) and Indonesia (24·4 [24·2-24·7]) in Asia, and Fiji (29·8 [24·7-35·0]) and Papua New Guinea (29·2 [27·3-31·0]) in Melanesia. A clear socioeconomic gradient exists in cervical cancer, with decreasing rates as HDI increased. Incidence was three times higher in countries with low HDI than countries with very high HDI, whereas mortality rates were six times higher in low HDI countries versus very high HDI countries. In 2020 estimates, a general decline in incidence was observed in most countries of the world with representative trend data, with incidence becoming stable at relatively low levels around 2005 in several high-income countries. By contrast, in the same period incidence increased in some countries in eastern Africa and eastern Europe. We observed different patterns of age-specific incidence between countries with well developed population-based screening and treatment services (eg, Sweden, Australia, and the UK) and countries with insufficient and opportunistic services (eg, Colombia, India, and Uganda). The burden of cervical cancer remains high in many parts of the world, and in most countries, the incidence and mortality of the disease remain much higher than the threshold set by the WHO initiative on cervical cancer elimination. We identified substantial geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in cervical cancer globally, with a clear gradient of increasing rates for countries with lower levels of human development. Our study provides timely evidence and impetus for future strategies that prioritise and accelerate progress towards the WHO elimination targets and, in so doing, address the marked variations in the global cervical cancer landscape today. French Institut National du Cancer, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation of the European Commission; and EU4Health Programme.

APPLICATION OF FACTOR ANALYSIS AND I-DISTANCE IN THE RANKING OF COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT

Contemporary theory defines development as a multi-dimensional and complex phenomenon which, therefore, cannot be measured by just one, but by a series of macroeconomic indicators. Different international organizations use different country classification systems. To assess the degree of development of a country, UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) uses the complex HDI index (Human Development Index). The HDI index includes the dimension of health (length of life), the dimension of education and the dimension of income (measured by gross national income per capita). Based on this index, the countries of the world are divided into four groups: countries with very high, countries with high, countries with medium and countries with low level of human development. The World Bank classifies countries based on GDP per capita. The International Monetary Fund classifies countries into “advanced economies” and “emerging and developing economies”. A unique classification of countries according to the degree of development is difficult, given that the very concept of the development of countries is complex and often includes several aspects, such as economic and social aspects. Although there is no single classification with precisely defined indicators that can be applied to each country and provide relevant data and a reliable picture of the level of development of the countries of the world, the need for such a classification is very pronounced. The aim of the paper is to determine the ranking of selected countries according to the level of development in 2021 based on a certain number of macroeconomic indicators. For the purposes of realizing the formulated goal, the procedure for ranking and classifying countries using the I-distance is presented. The I-distance method is a method of classification and ranking of multidimensional phenomena, based on the distance between the selected indicators. The selection of indicators was carried out using factor analysis (specifically, analysis of the main components) and the use of statistical software SPSS (eng. Statistical Package for Social Sciences - version PASW Statistics 23). Factor analysis is an objective method that uses its algorithms and techniques to reduce indicators and reduce them to an optimal number. After the formation of the main factors, the I distance method was used to define the ranking of countries according to the level of development. In this paper, the countries of the European Union were analyzed. In addition to the countries of the European Union, the analysis included the following countries: Japan, Russia, USA, Canada, Great Britain and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Based on the formed ranking of countries, the USA is in first place, followed by Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Canada, Russia and Japan. Not a single model provides a solution that has an essential, fundamental meaning, that is, based on its application, one cannot conclude what the real difference in the level of development is between the observed countries. Hence, the application of these methods is limited to compiling a ranking of the level of development of countries, which can serve us as “compass” in the analysis of their development.

Development finance, institutional quality and human development in the MENA region

PurposeThe majority of MENA countries suffer low levels of human development, coupled with scarcity of funding resources, low level of governance, and poor institutional environment. Consequently, this research aims at detecting the impact of development finance resources and institutional quality on the human development in the MENA region, in order to examine if/why the MENA countries fail to efficiently exploit all the available financial inflows to promote human development and boost living standards.Design/methodology/approachThis study tests the short- and long-run impact of six financing resources representing injections in the economy and four institutional quality variables on the human development index in the MENA region. It adopts co-integration analysis, vector error correction model, and Granger causality test on a sample of 13 MENA countries over the period 1996–2019.FindingsThis research finds that domestic credit to private sector and exports of goods and services do not have any significant added value for human development in the MENA region. In contrast, government expenditures and migrant remittances are found to be crucial in promoting human development in both the short- and long-run. FDI and ODA do enhance human development, but only in the short-run. In parallel, control of corruption, government effectiveness and regulation quality are essential boosters of human development in the MENA region, but with different importance, while political stability was found to be irrelevant.Originality/valueTo the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of financial inflows and institutional quality on the overall human development index in the MENA region. The contribution of this paper lies in unlocking for policymakers the potential impactful financing resources to serve national developmental plans, in an endeavour to catch up to the SDGs amid the additional challenges imposed by governance and institutional environment.

THE EFFECT OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOGISTICS EFFICIENCY OF THE COUNTRIES

This study has two main aims. The first aim of the study is to determine the logistics efficiency of the countries. For this purpose, the logistics efficiency of 160 countries was measured by Data Envelopment Analysis, using six sub-indicators of the Logistics Performance Index (LPI). The second aim of the study is to investigate how the logistics efficiency of countries is affected by human development classes and indicators. For this purpose, the Kruskal Wallis H test and Multiple Linear Regression analysis were used. The findings show that countries in the Very High Human Development class have higher efficiency scores than other countries. The logistics efficiency of Sub-Saharan African Countries, which have a low level of Human Development, was found to be low. In addition, HDI sub-indicators explain logistics efficiency by 67.8%. GNP per capita and Expected Years of Schooling have a significant impact on logistics efficiency. The findings show that achieving a meaningful improvement in logistics depends on catching a leap in the economy through R&D, innovation, and high technology and considering long-term education programs.

Assessing Africa’s Agricultural TFP for Food Security and Effects on Human Development: Evidence from 35 Countries

Population growth, food shortages, and low levels of human development have been longstanding issues confronting many African countries. Agricultural productivity remains a critical goal for mitigating these challenges and ensuring overall economic development. Total factor productivity (TFP) is a crucial metric for determining a sector’s overall growth. However, due to a lack of comprehensive assessments of the trends and determinants of TFP growth in African agriculture, there are disagreements. Within the context of inclusive human development, the impact of agricultural productivity is frequently misrepresented in the current literature. This paper estimated TFP growth and assessed its impact on human development in Africa. Due to technological improvement, TFP increased moderately at a 5.4% growth rate across African countries over the period (2001–2019). Empirical evidence indicates that TFP growth enhances human development in the long run, but the effect varies according to levels of human development (HDI) and the nature of growth over time. For instance, higher levels of human development tend to mitigate the impact of TFP. Further analysis revealed that technical efficiency improvement is critical for enhancing food safety and human development. Policy recommendations for improving TFP for food security and human development in Africa are provided. Further investigation into agricultural TFP’s impact beyond the poverty measure in Africa is encouraged.

Grateful expectations: Cultural differences in the curvilinear association between age and gratitude

Recent research suggests that the association between age and gratitude might be curvilinear—despite gratitude ostensibly being higher in middle-age, it might be lower in older adulthood. It is unclear if this curvilinear pattern of age differences in gratitude is found in other samples and whether its manifestation depends on contextual (i.e., national/cultural) characteristics. The current study examined cultural variation in the curvilinear effect of age on gratitude in a sample of over 4.5 million participants from 88 countries. Participants from countries with lower levels of human development, a shorter-term orientation, and higher levels of indulgence reported higher levels of gratitude. Cultural moderation effects were very small, suggesting that curvilinear effects of age on gratitude may be relatively comparable across cultures.

Natural Resources, Urbanisation, Economic Growth and the Ecological Footprint in South Africa: The Moderating Role of Human Capital

Abstract South Africa is the largest emitter of CO2 and arguably the most developed and urbanised country in Africa. The country currently harbours an ecological deficit territory which could be the outcome of economic expansion, urban explosion, unsustainable resource exploration and a low level of human development. After all, environmental distortions are mainly the outcome of human activities. This study is a maiden attempt to examine the linkage between urbanisation, human capital, natural resources (NR) and the ecological footprint (EF) in South Africa. Unlike previous studies, this study employs positivist and relevant environmental indicators that accommodate built-up land, forest land, carbon footprint, ocean, grazing land and cropland. Findings from the long-run results suggest that urbanisation, economic growth and NR increase the EF, whereas human capital ensures environmental sustainability. The interaction between urbanisation and human capital mitigates environmental degradation by reducing the EF. The canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) results further confirm the nature of the relationships and linkages existing with respect to NR, urbanisation, economic growth and the EF. A bidirectional causality exists between human capital, economic growth and the EF. Policies related to NR and urban sustainability, the limitations of the study, as well as possible directions for future research are discussed.

Кластеризація світової економіки в умовах техноглобалізму

The article presents a cluster analysis of 100 countries of the world according to international rating indicators of socio-economic development: global innovation index; education index; human development index; global competitiveness index; ease of doing business index. The author highlights the main features of cluster analysis of the world by means of STATISTICA according to the above indicators. The study substantiates the assignment of countries to each of the above clusters due to the averaging of the level and value of each of the indices, which serve as the methodological basis for the study. The first group of countries (follower countries) is characterized by a fairly low level of human development, which leads to a fairly low level of innovation development. The second group of countries (trendsetters) includes countries whose indicators are not the highest, but sufficient to establish common examples to follow or take into account their socio-economic and innovation policies in countries with less developed economic and social life. The third group of countries (donor countries) is characterized by a fairly simplified business environment, low innovation potential. The fourth group of countries (innovators) is characterized by the highest level of innovation development, education index and human development.

Assessment of the effectiveness of foreign aid on the development of Africa

AbstractForeign aid with the aim of propagating growth and development in developing countries has been in existence since the end of World War II. Africa as the recipient of aid over this period is still wallowing in poverty and underdevelopment. This phenomenon has interested many researchers and donor agencies to unravel the true impact of aid to the developmental agenda of Africa but the findings are mixed and inconsistent. Our study focused on 50 African countries for the period of 1996 to 2017 on a panel study. The study adopts panel data methodologies such as generalized linear model, Arellano‐Bond dynamic panel data estimations (GMM two‐step approach), and granger causality to achieve our objective of identifying the linear and dynamic relationship among the variables. Foreign aid through developmental assistance is assumed to significantly impact growth but the results from our study report an opposing view thus negative and statistically linear and dynamic relationship. Moreover, the undermining factors hindering aid‐growth relationships in Africa are high levels of corruption, poverty, low level of human development, political instability, and poor institutional quality. On this note, we would like to recommend to policymakers to focus on technical assistance and educational projects that could strengthen institutions rather than other developmental projects. In essence, these would propagate development in the immediate time to promote long‐run growth agenda.

La participación ciudadana en el Estado de derecho ecuatoriano. Un análisis constitucional en el marco del Pluralismo Jurídico

El establecimiento del Estado de Derecho como medio de control social, mediante una nueva Constitución Política en Ecuador a partir del 2008, se ha constituido el Consejo de Participación ciudadana y Control desde el análisis de la participación ciudadana, derechos, representación, procesos constituyentes, transparencia y control social, y su regulación normativa como quinto poder. Pese a esta dialéctica, periódicamente ocurren crisis políticas, económicas y estructurales, por el grado de atraso cultural y educativo de la población, el bajo nivel de desarrollo humano y la falta de oportunidades ocasionan una cultura de la ilegalidad. La participación ciudadana existe desde que existe Estado.

Tracking progress towards accessible, green and efficient energy: The Inclusive Green Energy index

This paper presents an index to evaluate progress in achieving the key dimensions of the Sustainable Development Goal 7, which entails ensuring “access to affordable, sustainable and modern energy for all.” The key aspects of this index, called the Inclusive Green Energy index, are: (i) it focuses on changes, rather than on levels, of the access, greenness and use of energy; (ii) it exhibits a decomposability feature that permits integrating several dimensions, both positive and negative, in a friendly way; and (iii) the evaluation of progress is made relative to some reference values (targets and thresholds) that can differ between countries. We calculate the Inclusive Green Energy index of progress for 157 countries using data from 2004 to 2014 on three indicators intended to capture inclusiveness, greenness, and efficiency of energy use. The results show that progress has, on average, been positive across the world, with more than 87 per cent of the sample of countries experiencing some degree of progress. However, progress is smaller for the Middle East and North African and Sub-Saharan African countries and it is negative for most of the countries that exhibit low levels of human development, as measured by the Human Development Index. Furthermore, fewer than one in four of the countries in the sample have an Inclusive Green Energy index commensurate with having met their targets. This suggests that much remains to be done globally with regard to being on track towards meeting their Sustainable Development Goal 7 by 2030.

Untangling Effects of Human Disturbance and Natural Factors on Mortality Risk of Migratory Caribou

Human disturbances are rapidly increasing in northern and Arctic regions, raising concerns about the recovery and persistence of declining caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations. Yet, the consequences of behavioral responses towards human disturbances on vital rates have rarely been investigated. Here, we assessed the cumulative and instantaneous effects of human disturbances (road, human settlements, mines and mining exploration) at different temporal scales on the mortality risk of 254-GPS collared migratory caribou monitored in two herds, the Riviere-aux-Feuilles (RFH) and Riviere-George (RGH) herds, in northern Quebec and Labrador, Canada. We also assessed the relative importance of human disturbances on caribou mortality risk compared to non-anthropogenic factors, including habitat use by caribou, predation risk by wolves, and local weather conditions. Human disturbances alone had a limited impact on caribou mortality risk. Repeated exposure to disturbances did not increase mortality risk during the early-life period (1-7 years), but more abundant precipitations (RFH) or the use of areas with a higher predation risk (RGH) did. At the seasonal scale, non-anthropogenic factors, particularly patterns of habitat use by caribou and air temperature, prevailed over anthropogenic factors to define mortality risk in the RFH. Caribou of the RFH using habitat selectively targeted at the population level more frequently decreased their chance of mortality during winter, whereas individuals using warmer areas during summer faced a higher risk of mortality. At the daily scale, we found that anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic factors generally had either no effect on the daily risk of mortality, or their effects were undistinguishable from the effect of latitude with which they were highly correlated. The only exception was for the RFH in winter, for which the daily risk of mortality increased by 10 times for each 10-km increment towards industrial disturbances. Although the impacts of human disturbances on caribou survival were limited, we nevertheless detected a negative effect on survival on the RFH, even at the currently low level of human development. Our study highlights the importance of assessing the effect of human disturbances at various spatiotemporal scales, and of considering the relative influence of other non-anthropogenic factors to fully understand what drives wildlife populations.

Using spatial characteristics of apex carnivore communication and reproductive behaviors to predict responses to future human development

A growing body of evidence has documented how wildlife alter their behavior in response to human encroachment. For carnivores, behaviors related to reproduction and communication are particularly sensitive to human disturbance and can provide an early warning indicator of development’s negative impacts. Despite the important role carnivores play in an ecosystem, few tools have been developed to anticipate how future human development impacts these behaviors. We developed a set of models to understand spatial relationships between anthropogenic development and puma (Puma concolor) habitat selection for two critical reproductive behaviors: nursery habitat for raising young, and sites for communication with mates. Using geospatial location data from the Santa Cruz Mountains in California, USA, we found that female pumas use small nursery home ranges (9 km2 ± 1.72 SE) of predominantly natural habitat, potentially with low levels of human development (< 1 housing unit per 40 acres), when supporting kittens < 8 weeks old. Areas immediately surrounding (≤ 600 m) puma communication sites were also almost entirely composed of undeveloped habitat or low-density development. When modeling projected human development compared to current land use, we found that increases in human development may eliminate 20% of current puma nursery habitat and nearly 50% of current communication site habitat. Future development will also increase the patchiness of suitable habitat, intensifying the difficulty of locating and accessing suitable areas for nurseries and communication. Focusing on the habitat needed to support reproductive and communication behaviors may be an effective way to prioritize conservation planning for pumas and other apex carnivores.

Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk

Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset.