Low Interest Rate Environment Research Articles

Labor market policies in high- and low-interest rate environments: Evidence from the euro area

Do labor market policies initiated in periods of loose monetary policy yield different outcomes from those introduced when monetary tightening prevails? Using data from 11 euro-area members up to 2010–and extending to 17 countries up to 2020–we analyze three labor market policies: replacement rates, spending on active labor market policies (ALMPs), and employment protection. We find that these policies deliver different macroeconomic outcomes in low- and high-interest rate environments. In particular, ALMPs reduce unemployment if implemented under a loose monetary policy but not otherwise, whereas higher employment protection delivers expansionary effects under a tight monetary policy. These findings highlight that the effectiveness of labor market policies is significantly influenced by the monetary policy environment, emphasizing the need for coordinated policy design. Methodologically, we contribute by proposing to average local projections using Mallow’s Cp criterion, allowing for inferences that are robust to mis-specification and accommodate non-linearities.

Migration and inflation nexus under high and low interest rate environments: Some panel data evidence

Migration and inflation nexus under high and low interest rate environments: Some panel data evidence

How good are banks’ forecasts?

We analyse the financial forecasts small and medium-sized German banks provided in several waves of a quantitative survey, called LIRES, and compare them with the results the banks actually realized. Based on this unique data set, we find that the predictions are relevant, especially concerning the net interest income for the next year, and persistent, but neither unbiased nor rational. We also find slight evidence for a positive relationship between planning and performance, i.e. banks whose predictions are more accurate tend to have a higher return on assets. Looking at the forecasts made just before the end of the low-interest rate environment, we observe that the explanatory power of predictions went down.

Does macro-prudential regulation lead to low interest rate? An empirical analysis based on the transnational panel model

Based on a simple theoretical analysis, this paper constructs a transnational panel model based on the macroeconomic variable data of 131 countries from 2007 to 2020 for empirical analysis, so as to systematically explore the potential impact of macro-prudential policy regulation on the evolution of interest rates. It is found that the nominal interest rate of developed economies is closer to the lower bound of interest rate than that of underdeveloped economies, and the implementation of macro-prudential policies in the world generally shows a tightening trend, and the tightening degree of macro-prudential policies in developed economies is higher. Macro-prudential regulation has significantly exacerbated the evolution of global low interest rates, but the interest rate evolution of different types of economies is heterogeneous under the influence of macro-prudential regulation, especially in developed economies. Based on these insights, the paper proposes several policy recommendations: firstly, strengthen the precision of the implementation of macro-prudential policies to avoid “one-size-fits-all” policy implementation; secondly, refine macro-prudential policy regulation to be more scientific and prevent policy overshoots that could inadvertently harm the real economy; thirdly, attach great importance to the potential constraints of the low interest rate environment, and use diversified means to get rid of the lower bound of the nominal interest rate.

Lessons from low interest rate policy: How did euro area banks respond?

This paper studies the impact of the Eurosystem’s low interest rate policy on euro area banks. We first assess the impact of low rates on banks’ net interest margins. An important extension to previous studies is that we split the interest margin into a funding and lending component. The decomposition makes clear that the low interest rate environment significantly reduced banks’ net interest income by squeezing funding margins, which corroborates the reversal rate literature. We find no strong evidence that banks have boosted their lending margins to offset the lost funding margin. However, we do observe that banks partly compensated for the impact of low rates by switching to non-interest income sources and by cost savings. We also find that low interest rates have not reduced bank lending, which suggests that banks’ compensatory measures largely outweighed the impact of low rates.

Stress Testing the Corporate Debt Servicing Capacity: A Scenario Analysis

The total volume of outstanding debt issued by U.S. nonfinancial firms relative to GDP has increased by about 8 percentage points in the past decade. While a growing volume of debt was largely viewed as benign in the low interest rate environment of the 2010s, the rapid increase in both short- and long-term rates since early 2022 has raised concerns about the debt-servicing capacity of the corporate sector.

Evaluating the Efficiency of Alternative Investment Vehicles in Modern Portfolio

Abstract: The evolving global economic landscape has prompted investors to diversify their portfolios beyond traditional stocks and bonds, leading to the increasing prominence of alternative investments. This study examines the role and effectiveness of alternative investment options, such as private equity, hedge funds, real estate, and commodities, in modern investment portfolios. These non-traditional assets offer unique opportunities for risk management, diversification, and potential growth, making them appealing choices for investors seeking to enhance their portfolio's performance and stability. The research highlights the key factors driving the growing appeal of alternative investments, including their ability to provide diversification benefits by spreading risk across a range of assets with low correlation to traditional market indices. Additionally, these investments present opportunities for increased returns, particularly in low-interest rate environments, and enable investors to access emerging markets and industries, broadening their investment horizons

Same old song: On the macroeconomic and distributional effects of leaving a Low Interest Rate Environment

In this paper, we present a hybrid Agent-Based Stock-Flow-Consistent (AB-SFC) model about the macroeconomic and distributional implications of central bank’s decision to leave a “Low(-for-long) Interest Rate Environment” (LIRE). Our goal is to study the non-linear effects of monetary tightening when implemented under LIRE than in an alternative “Higher Interest Rate” setting (HIRE). This way, we shed light over the interaction between monetary policy, inequality, and macro-financial fragility in a financialized economy characterized by the presence of securitization and the production of complex financial products, i.e., Asset-Backed Securities (ABSs). We obtain three main findings. First, consistent with existing empirical literature, LIRE may be sources of vulnerabilities in the financial industry (i.e., lower banks’ profitability and capital adequacy ratio). However, it may reduce systemic macro-financial risk by stimulating faster growth, lower unemployment and inequality records alongside with lower public and private indebtedness and lower-scale securitization. Second, central bank’s decision to raise interest rates improves financial sector’s performance indicators at the costs of harsh real-side consequences, i.e., permanently higher unemployment and inequality, when implemented under LIRE. Third, financialization structurally changes the functioning of the economy by feeding the creation of a debt-led economy in which monetary policy becomes less effective in its attempt of controlling inflation. Central bank’s reaction in the form of a permanently tighter monetary policy stance eventually prompts a more unequal and unstable rentier-friendly economy.

What’s Wrong with Annuity Markets?

Abstract We show that the supply of U.S. life annuities is constrained by interest rate risk. We identify this effect using annuity prices offered by life insurers from 1989 to 2019 and exogenous variations in contract-level regulatory capital requirements. The cost of interest rate risk management—conditional on the effect of adverse selection—accounts for about half of annuity markups, or 8 percentage points. The contribution of interest rate risk to annuity markups sharply increased after the Global Financial Crisis, suggesting new retirees’ opportunities to transfer their longevity risk are unlikely to improve in a persistently low interest rate environment.

The impact of monetary policy interventions on banking sector stocks: an empirical investigation of the COVID-19 crisis

The enduring impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the financial sector is undeniable, persisting far beyond the eventual waning of the pandemic. This research examines central bank interventions during the pandemic, using a quantitative event study approach over a five-day window to analyse the impact of 188 monetary policy announcements on banking stocks in China, the U.S., and Europe. Our results demonstrate how monetary policy announcements targeting different economic mechanisms have produced a diverse market reaction throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Namely, cuts in interest rates and the maintenance of a low interest rate environment by the Federal Reserve resulted in negative abnormal returns in the U.S.A., while short-term announcements surrounding intra-day credit and liquidity provisions boosted banking sector stock prices. In Europe, a muted reaction by the banking sector was observed, with negative abnormal returns observed in response to the ECB’s 2% inflation objectives. Finally, banking stocks in China responded strongly and positively to foreign currency and exchange-related announcements by the People’s Bank of China. The results and insights from this analysis can thus inform preparations made by policymakers, governments, and financial market stakeholders in the event of future waves of COVID-19, or further extreme societal disruptions.

Low interest rates and the predictive content of the yield curve

Does the yield curve’s ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates and inflation are low, as was recently the case? We explore the issue using historical data going back to the 19th century for the US. This paper is similar in spirit to Ramey and Zubairy (2018), who look at the government spending multiplier in times of low interest rates. If anything, the yield curve tends to predict output growth better in low interest rate environments, though this result is stronger for RGDP than for IP.

Monitoring commercial and smallholder production inequalities during South Africa's lockdown using remotely sensed data

AbstractSouth Africa's dualistic agricultural sector consists of many smallholders that operate adjacent to dominant commercial producers. While the smallholder sector contributes to food security, households depend primarily on market food consumption. Poverty reduction is constrained when smallholders have limited access to markets, technology, or cheap capital. We collate remotely sensed data from the South African National Land Cover map and moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer to monitor land use changes as the country entered the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) lockdown. Production growth sustained aggregate food security, but hunger rose in the poorest households. This inequality in food security is also reflected in growing inequalities in production. Commercially cultivated land areas grew significantly, with more modest gains in smallholder areas. Commercial farmers were better positioned to expand capital in a low interest rate environment during the COVID‐19 crisis. Without using technology and capital to adapt, smallholders can fall further behind during future crises and growth episodes.

Functionality of Fiscal Rules in a Low Interest Rate Environment – New Empirical Results for Swiss Cantons

Functionality of Fiscal Rules in a Low Interest Rate Environment – New Empirical Results for Swiss Cantons

The Impact of Quantitative Easing on The U.S. Economy

Quantitative easing has had a profound impact on various aspects of the US economy, including social welfare and wealth disparities, education reforms, changes in government fiscal strategies and financial regulation, alterations in consumption savings and investment patterns, as well as corporate strategy adjustments. Additionally, this policy has significantly influenced academia, policymaking, and public discourse. The recession was not limited to the financial markets but affected all sectors of society. In a low-interest-rate environment, capital seeking higher returns flooded into the stock and real estate markets leading to soaring prices. While excessive borrowing and spending may stimulate short-term economic growth; it could trigger a credit crunch that would further depress growth in the long run. In the current global low-interest rate environment, higher education institutions have the option of obtaining funds through debt financing; however, they must remain vigilant to fluctuations in tuition and educational burden. Collaboration between governments, educational institutions, employers and students is crucial for mitigating this crisis. Vocational education has become a more cost-effective and adaptable alternative due to its lower tuition fees. Furthermore, quantitative easing may impose constraints on future government policymaking regarding debt-related issues. The government should closely monitor changes in inflationary pressures, take measures to contain the threat of high inflation to economic stability, and prevent long-term debt accumulation from leading to fiscal deficits and cuts in public services.

The impact of ECB’s Quantitative Easing on cryptocurrency markets during times of crisis

In this paper, we investigate non-linear linkages between Bitcoin and the unconventional monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB). In particular, we examine whether a low-interest rate environment resulting from QE indirectly encourages investors to move towards Bitcoin. Using a Bayesian VAR model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility (TVP-BVAR-SV model), we compare Bitcoin’s responses to the shadow rate shocks during the pre-and post-COVID-19 periods. Moreover, despite the high uncertainty and the low-interest rate environment, Bitcoin's response during the COVID-19 period reveals a steeper drop compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. That said, investors did not resort to Bitcoin for safety and higher returns. Our findings can be attributed to the unprecedented nature of the crisis, the investor reluctance and pessimism, and the changing behavior of Bitcoin, which is no longer perceived as a safe haven.

Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment

This paper takes a multi-country perspective to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of recessionary demand shocks when interest rates are low. Global demand shocks are recovered from a global commodity price factor that is shown to be highly representative of global demand conditions. Country-specific adjustments to these global commodity-based demand shocks are then estimated across 17 advanced economies using non-linear VARs. Domestic real GDP growth, equity returns, and inflation are significantly more sensitive to these shocks when nominal interest rates fall below a threshold of about 3%. When interest rates are low, recessionary commodity demand shocks lead to higher domestic real interest rates as nominal policy rates become constrained by the zero lower bound, consistent with a deflation trap driving the increase in domestic sensitivity to global shocks.

Stable or stagnant? Political economy and governance in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany since 2000

AbstractAt the beginning of the twenty‐first century, the large democracies of Western Europe experienced some of the most prosperous and peaceful decades in human history. Specifically, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany experienced high and stable quality of life, democratic accountability and state capacity between 2000 and 2019, according to the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index. While all four of these countries are among the top performers in the Index, substantial problems lurk beneath the surface. Notably, each failed to capitalise on the low interest rate environment in the decade following the global financial crisis of 2007–2009—albeit in different ways and for different reasons in each country. In particular, low investment in infrastructure and key technologies, the persistence of stubborn regional inequalities, and resulting sluggish GDP growth have prevented the ‘Big Four’ in Western Europe from improving further and future‐proofing their existing gains.

The Lack of Short-term Financial Products in Hong Kong: An Empirical Analysis of Questionnaire

In Hong Kong, which is rich in financial products, short-term financial products are rare, so there are many reasons behind it that are worth exploring and verifying. The objective of this study is to examine and validate the factors contributing to this phenomenon and to make recommendations for the future of short-term financial products in Hong Kong. This study sorted out the existing opinions and completed the questionnaire by sorting out the literature, and then empirically analyzed the reasons for the lack of short-term financial products in Hong Kong by using quantitative analysis methods. The results of the study revealed that, from the perspective of investors, Hong Kong's high salary, complex operation of short-term financial products, low security of short-term financial products, high risk, and difficult to match energy costs are all important reasons for investors to choose less short-term financial products. At the same time, the low interest rate environment of Hong Kong has led investors to save less and focus more on other high-yielding financial products.

Does Rocky Mountain Credit Union Competition still Affect Commercial Bank Interest Rates?

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: 'Cambria',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Historically, increased credit union competition in Idaho and Montana has caused commercial banks to offer higher deposit rates to savers and lower loan rates to borrowers. Data are collected for the second quarter of 2018 to examine whether that pattern still holds true. Unlike prior studies, empirical results indicate that credit union competition no longer exerts statistically reliable impacts on deposit rates or loan rates in this northern Rocky Mountain region of the United States. Potential contributing factors include bank and thrift consolidation in recent years, the low interest rate environment prevailing during the late 2010s, and greater emphasis on non-interest forms of intermediary competition in the banking markets that comprise this regional economy.</span></p>

Why the High Values for the CAPE Ratio in Recent Years Might Be Justified

In this paper, I propose a tracking error approach using the P/E ratio equation to approximate the CAPE Ratio. After accounting for the recent structural changes in the composition and valuation of the S&P 500 index, along with a persistently low interest rate environment over the last three decades, I show that the average CAPE Ratio had increases over time. Relying solely on historical CAPE averages to forecast equity returns may therefore prove unreliable. The findings in this paper indicate that investors should incorporate multiple factors, including required return and expected earnings growth, when forming capital allocation decisions across asset classes. Rotating out of the equity market simply because the CAPE Ratio shows that the equity market is too expensive might not produce the desire outcome investors hope for.