Low Elasticity Of Substitution Research Articles

Is green growth possible and even desirable in a spaceship economy?

There seems to be a consensus among many growth and resource economists that perpetual growth can be ensured if it gets increasingly resource-efficient and if growth focuses on creating values, a result derived by models using production functions that allow asymptotically complete decoupling of the economy from its resource base by substituting natural resources through physical and knowledge capital. This growth process can be called green growth. The following paper attempts to show, within the framework of an semi-endogenous growth model using a linear-exponential production function (Linex function) with bounded resource efficiency, that the accumulation of physical and knowledge capital to substitute natural resources cannot guarantee green growth. As the population grows, per capita income decreases, and the economy’s capital base decays. In addition, an ecological displacement effect resulting from the biophysical embeddedness of the economy further exacerbates the result. Physical capital pushes back the natural spaces necessary to regenerate natural services and resources and can, therefore, not be accumulated endlessly. A comparison with standard resource models shows that this displacement effect also limits growth for models with production functions with low elasticities of substitution. Finally, the analysis of transitory dynamics addresses aspects of intergenerational equality in a limited biosphere.

Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies

Abstract This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation on the labor share in a sample of 26 advanced economies during the 1970–2013 period, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms in this area. We employ a difference-in-differences identification strategy using two identifying assumptions grounded in theory—deregulation has larger effects in industries characterized by (i) a higher “natural” propensity to regularly adjust the workforce and (ii) a lower elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. We find significant negative effects of deregulation on the labor share, contributing to about a tenth of its observed decline in advanced economies.

Labour-augmenting technical change data for alternative elasticities of substitution: growth, slowdown, and distribution dynamics

ABSTRACT The main aim of this paper is to derive data for labour-augmenting technology (LAT) through growth accounting from a CES production function compatible with the stylized facts of growth. We solve a CES function for its LAT term and insert data. This provides LAT levels for alternative elasticities of substitution for 70 countries, 1950-2017. These LAT data then are analysed in relation to topics in the literature. Results are as follows. (i) The percentage growth rates of LAT are shown to fall over time (productivity slowdown) for all elasticity values in a panel data analysis with slope homogeneity. (ii) The standard growth result of a GDP growth rate equal to that of LAT and labour input holds only for LAT data based on low elasticities of substitution indicating that the economies are not in steady states. (iii) Matching the labour/capital share ratios from CES functions with those of PWT9.1 if the MPL-to-wage ratio is 1.6, the elasticities of substitution vary around 0.8. For this value, (iv) 13 of 69 countries have a productivity slowdown; (v) LAT growth rates are negatively related to their levels ten years ago without strongly changing the coefficient of variation or kernel density distribution over time.

Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention

This paper shows how foreign exchange intervention can be used to avoid a sudden stop in capital flows in a small open emerging market economy. The model is based around the concept of an under-borrowing equilibrium defined by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2020). With a low elasticity of substitution between traded and non-traded goods, real exchange rate depreciation may generate a precipitous drop in aggregate demand and a tightening of borrowing constraints, leading to an equilibrium with an inefficiently low level of borrowing. The central bank can preempt this deleveraging cycle through foreign exchange intervention. Intervention is effective due to frictions in private international financial intermediation. Reserve accumulation has ex ante benefits by reducing the risk of a sudden stop, while intervention has ex-post benefits by limiting inefficient deleveraging. But intervention itself faces constraints. When the central bank’s stock of reserves is low, even foreign exchange intervention cannot prevent a sudden stop.

Is Substitutability the New Efficiency? Endogenous Investment in the Elasticity of Substitution between Clean and Dirty Energy

When analyzing potential ways to counter climate change, standard models of green growth abstract from investment in substitutability between “clean” and “dirty” energy inputs. Instead, they rely on the assumption that efficiency with respect to fossil fuels can be increased perpetually. However, this is not in line with observed firm investment behavior and the limits to efficiency imposed by thermodynamic laws. In this paper, I develop a growth model that explicitly accounts for endogenous investment to increase input substitutability, in addition to investment in efficiency. The model predicts that, for a growing economy, there is always investment in both substitutability and efficiency, even without a carbon cap and with non-infinite fossil fuel prices. Most importantly, in the long-run, with sufficient investment in substitutability, fossil fuels become inessential for production. Moreover, the model predicts a declining income share of fossil fuels, an outcome not featured by standard models based on purely efficiency-enhancing technological progress. Overall, the model generates an endogenous path of transition from an economy characterized by a low elasticity of substitution to one characterized by a high elasticity. In doing so, it still nests the results derived from a purely efficiency-based directed technical change framework as a special case. In addition, this paper analyzes the scope for policy intervention, showing that even a temporary subsidy/tax can trigger a full transformation toward green growth.

Backward and Forward Integration Along Global Value Chains

Both backward (upstream) and forward (downstream) vertical integration strategies shape the organization of global value chains (GVCs). Yet, many studies make the unrealistic assumption that integration decisions are binary and one-directional. That is, for each production stage, companies make the integration decision only once, and this can be either backward or forward but not in both directions. The aim of this paper is to analyze the firm-level organization of GVCs when both vertical integration decisions are taken into account. Exploiting a global sample of more than 1.4 million firms, we first document how midstream parents, which actually integrate on both directions along the chain, are at least as common as downstream and upstream parents. We then find that parent companies prefer to integrate production stages with a relatively low elasticity of substitution and with a technological proximity on the supply chain. Finally, we provide evidence that more than one subsidiary in a given location can perform the same production stage.

Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention

This paper shows how foreign exchange intervention can be used to avoid a sudden stop in capital flows in a small open emerging market economy. The model is based around the concept of an under-borrowing equilibrium defined by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2020). With a low elasticity of substitution between traded and non-traded goods, real exchange rate depreciation may generate a precipitous drop in aggregate demand and a tightening of borrowing constraints, leading to an equilibrium with an inefficiently low level of borrowing. The central bank can preempt this deleveraging cycle through foreign exchange intervention. Intervention is effective due to frictions in private international financial intermediation. Reserve accumulation has ex ante benefits by reducing the risk of a sudden stop, while intervention has ex-post benefits by limiting inefficient deleveraging. But intervention itself faces constraints. When the central bank's stock of reserves is low, even foreign exchange intervention cannot prevent a sudden stop.

Unintended consequences of maternity leave legislation: The case of Colombia

Abstract We estimate the impact on female labor outcomes of the extension in maternity leave period from 12 to 14 weeks, an amendment to the Colombian labor law in 2011. To identify this impact, we compare labor market outcomes of different groups of individuals with women of child-bearing age. First we compared two groups of women with different fertility rates (low elasticity of substitution), finding that, as result of the extension, women in the high-fertility age group experience an increase in inactivity, informality, and self-employment. When comparing high-fertility age women with men in the same age group (high elasticity of substitution), we find that the extension increases the probability of unemployment, informality and self-employment and decreases wages of women compared with men.

Backward and Forward Integration Along Global Value Chains

Backward and forward vertical integrations both shape the organization of Global Value Chains (GVCs). Yet, many studies make the unrealistic assumption that integration decisions are binary and one-directional, i.e., companies make the integration decision only once and they can go either backward or forward but not in both directions. The aim of this paper is to analyze the firm-level organization of GVCs when both vertical integration decisions are taken into account. Exploiting a global sample of more than 1.4 million firms, we first document how midstream parents actually integrate on both directions along the chain, and they are at least as common as downstream and upstream parents. Then, we find that parent companies prefer to integrate production stages with a relatively low elasticity of substitution and with a technological proximity on the supply chain. Finally, we provide evidence that more than one subsidiary in a given location can perform the same production stage.

Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies

Labor market deregulation, intended to boost productivity and employment, is one plausible, yet little studied, driver of the decline in labor shares that took place across most advanced economies since the early 1990s. This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation in a sample of 26 advanced economies over the period 1970-2015, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms to employment protection legislation for regular contracts. We apply the local projection method to estimate the dynamic response of the labor share to our reform events at both the country and the country-industry levels. For the latter, we employ a differences-in-differences identification strategy using two identifying assumptions grounded in theory—namely that job protection deregulation should have larger negative effects in industries characterized by (i) a higher “natural” propensity to adjust the workforce, and (ii) a lower elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. We find a statistically significant, economically large and robust negative effect of deregulation on the labor share. In particular, illustrative back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that job protection deregulation may have contributed about 15 percent to the average labor share decline in advanced economies. Together with existing evidence regarding the macroeconomic gains from job protection and other labor market reforms, our results also point to the need for policymakers to address efficiency-equity trade-offs when designing such reforms.

Phasing out a polluting input in a growth model with directed technological change

This paper explores the potential conflict between economic growth and the environment, and the optimal long-run environmental policy. It formulates a growth model with directed technological change and focuses on the case with low elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty inputs in production. New technology is substituted for the polluting input, which results in a gradual decline in pollution along the optimal long-run growth path. In contrast to some recent work, the era of pollution and environmental policy is here not just a transitory phase in economic development. This result means that the government's continuous efforts to reconcile economic growth and the environment will always be needed. The socially optimal policy includes a perpetual subsidy to ‘green’ research. The tax rate of pollution is monotonously increasing, while the pollution tax payments constitute a constant share of income. These policies result in a quite modest growth drag.

Estimation of global rebound effect caused by energy efficiency improvement

Rebound effect refers to the phenomenon that the actual reduction in energy use and emissions is less than the expected reduction caused by an energy efficiency improvement due to induced behavior adjustment of relevant economic agents. This article studies the global rebound effects on energy use and related emissions caused by an energy efficiency improvement. We adopt a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to design a scenario of energy efficiency improvement, which is compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario to identify the global rebound effect. Our results show very large rebound effect on energy use (70%) and related emissions (90%) in 2040 at the global level with regional and sectoral differences. Important determinants, among others, are induced labor movement among economic activities and labor supply, and substitution elasticity between energy and other goods. Labor mobility has a marked impact on both rebound effects and on fuel mix. The global rebound effect is still considerable even with a low substitution elasticity between energy and other goods. The effect of capital accumulation over time contributes marginally to the global rebound effect as it is utilized to promote economic growth by using energy input more efficiently.

Advantageous redistribution with three smooth CES utility functions

We present a parametric example of three-country advantageous redistribution with two Cobb–Douglas utility functions and one CES utility function for which the elasticity of substitution is 1/2. This paper indicates that the possibility of advantageous redistribution strongly depends on the three countries’ taste patterns, endowment distributions, and the elasticity of substitution. In particular, we will show with specific examples that greater difference between the donor and recipient’s taste patterns and a lower elasticity of substitution can increase the chance of advantageous redistribution.

Rice production structures in Sri Lanka: The normalized translog profit function approach

This study attempts to estimate the output supply and input demand elasticities of rice production using the restricted normalized translog profit function for the four major paddy producing districts; Anuradhapura, Hambantota, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa in Sri Lanka. In addition, elasticities of substitution between inputs are also estimated. The results suggest that the changes in market prices of inputs and output significantly affect the farmers` profits, rice supply and the use of resources in paddy cultivation. The supply elasticity of rice with respect to its own price is 0.5 and the supply elasticity of output with respect to fertilizer price is -0.05 on an average. Fertilizer demand in the country is inelastic but significant to its own price. Therefore, fertilizer subsidy is one of the main factors to increase fertilizer demand as well as paddy supply in the country. In addition, the low elasticity of substitution between labour and fertilizer and other inputs indicates that there is a complementary relationship among these inputs hence their combined application increases paddy production synergistically. Overall, this study suggest that farmers are price sensitive and assures prevalence of higher output price is essential for higher rice production.

Productivity versus elasticity: a normalized constant elasticity of substitution production function applied to historical Soviet data

This study tests the extensive growth hypothesis, which would attribute the Soviet economic slowdown to low elasticity of substitution and over-investment rather than deteriorating productivity growth. To circumvent the low availability of data, widely applicable new methods for estimating productivity and elasticity of substitution were developed based on the normalized constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. One is an extended version of the Solow residual calculation, and the other is a direct estimation of the time-varying parameter normalized CES production function. The application of the methods to the Soviet data showed a decreasing trend in productivity growth and a low elasticity of substitution of approximately 0.25. The results neither reject nor support the extensive growth hypothesis because of uncertainty in the interpretation of the low elasticity of substitution. The results suggest that it is reasonable to assert that both deteriorating productivity growth and low elasticity of substitution caused the Soviet economic slowdown. Further empirical studies on productivity and elasticity of substitution in the Soviet and other economies are necessary to fully understand relations between productivity growth, elasticity of substitution and economic development.

Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices

We explore the stability properties of interest rate rules granting an explicit response to stock prices in a New-Keynesian DSGE model populated by Blanchard-Yaari non-Ricardian households. The constant turnover between long-time stock holders and asset-poor newcomers generates a financial wealth channel where the wedge between current and expected future aggregate consumption is affected by the market value of financial wealth, making stock prices non-redundant for the business cycle. We find that if the financial wealth channel is sufficiently strong, responding to stock prices enlarges the policy space for which the rational expectations equilibrium is both determinate and learnable (in the E-stability sense of Evans and Honkapohja, 2001). In particular, the Taylor principle ceases to be necessary and also mildly passive policy responses to inflation lead to determinacy and E-stability. Our results appear to be more prominent in economies characterized by a lower elasticity of substitution across differentiated products and/or more rigid labor markets.

Industry-level Econometric Estimates of Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution with a Nested CES Production Function

Despite substantial interest in the role of energy in the economy, the degree of substitutability between energy and other production inputs and the way energy should be included in the production function remain unresolved issues. This study provides industry-level parameter estimates of two-level constant elasticity of substitution (CES) functions that include capital, labor and energy inputs and allow for technological change, for Canada. In contrast to many existing studies, we do not impose prior restrictions on the order of input nesting, and we report the estimates for three possible specifications. We find that a nested production structure, which first combines labor and energy into a composite good that is then combined with capital, fits the Canadian data best, in terms of respecting the restrictions imposed by cost minimization. We also find rather low elasticities of substitution between capital and labor, and limited evidence of exogenous technological change.

Input Substitutability, Trade Costs and the Product Cycle

I exhibit a simple and realistic feature of technology and trade costs that influences the partition of manufacturing between the North and South depending on the degree of substitutability of internationally traded inputs in production. In the presence of higher wages in the North, when production of manufacturing goods requires tradeable, country-speci c Ricardian inputs, goods with a low elasticity of substitution between inputs in production will have lower costs of manufacturing in the North and those with a high elasticity in the South.

Carbon taxation in Russia: Prospects for a double dividend and improved energy efficiency

This study analyses the sectoral and macroeconomic impact of carbon taxes on the Russian economy, one of the world's most energy- and carbon-intensive economies, while assessing the hypothesis of a double dividend. Substituting carbon taxes for labour taxes can reduce GHG emissions and enhance welfare by improving the efficiency of the tax system — a strong double dividend. The analyses confirm, when capital is not internationally mobile, that a double dividend is likely to occur under (i) a high elasticity of labour supply, (ii) high elasticities of substitution between labour and the capital-energy aggregate, (iii) low elasticities of substitution between capital and energy. It is the tax-shifting effect between capital and labour that is crucial. In contrast, welfare losses resulting from the environmental tax reform may be substantial if capital is internationally mobile.

Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis with Market Rigidities and Financial Frictions

We examine business cycle fluctuations in a dynamic macroeconomic model that incorporates a financial accelerator mechanism, borrowing constraints, and frictions on both setting prices and wages. After an adverse financial shock, the slow-adjustment process on wage cuts results in higher production marginal costs, lower firm earnings, and a subsequent reduction in equity that explains the increase in the cost of borrowing and the credit crunch. The real effects of adverse financial shocks are significantly amplified when either considering greater rigidities for price/wage setting or a low elasticity of substitution in loan production (real rigidities in the financial sector). In the monetary policy analysis, a Taylor (1983)-style rule performs slightly better when incorporating a small response coefficient to the spread between borrowing and saving interest rates.