Low Carbon Electricity System Research Articles

The Role of Flexibility in the Integrated Operation of Low-Carbon Gas and Electricity Systems: A Review

The integration of gas and electricity networks has emerged as a promising approach to enhance the overall flexibility of energy systems. As the transition toward sustainable and decarbonized energy sources accelerates, the seamless coordination between electricity and gas infrastructure becomes increasingly crucial. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art research and developments concerning the flexibility in the operation of low-carbon integrated gas and electricity networks (IGENs) as part of the whole system approach. Methods and solutions to provide and improve flexibility in the mentioned systems are studied and categorized. Flexibility is the system’s ability to deal with changes and uncertainties in the network while maintaining an acceptable level of reliability. The presented review underscores the significance of this convergence in facilitating demand-side management, renewable energy integration, and overall system resilience. By highlighting the technical, economic, and regulatory aspects of such integration, this paper aims to guide researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders toward effective decision-making and the formulation of comprehensive strategies that align with the decarbonization of energy systems.

Regional disparities in health and employment outcomes of China’s transition to a low-carbon electricity system

Understanding the costs and the spatial distribution of health and employment outcomes of low-carbon electricity pathways is critical to enable an equitable transition. We integrate an electricity system planning model (GridPath), a health impact model (InMAP), and a multiregional input–output model to quantify China’s provincial-level impacts of electricity system decarbonization on costs, health outcomes, employment, and labor compensation. We find that even without specific CO2 constraints, declining renewable energy and storage costs enable a 26% decline in CO2 emissions in 2040 compared to 2020 under the Reference scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, pursuing 2 °C and 1.5 °C compatible carbon emission targets (85% and 99% decrease in 2040 CO2 emissions relative to 2020 levels, respectively) reduces air pollution-related premature deaths from electricity generation over 2020–2040 by 51% and 63%, but substantially increases annual average costs per unit of electricity demand in 2040 (21% and 39%, respectively). While the 2 °C pathway leads to a 3% increase in electricity sector-related net labor compensation, the 1.5 °C pathway results in a 19% increase in labor compensation driven by greater renewable energy deployment. Although disparities in health impacts across provinces narrow as fossil fuels phase out, disparities in labor compensation widen with wealthier East Coast provinces gaining the most in labor compensation because of materials and equipment manufacturing, and offshore wind deployment.

Avoiding ecosystem and social impacts of hydropower, wind, and solar in Southern Africa’s low-carbon electricity system

The scale at which low-carbon electricity will need to be deployed to meet economic growth, electrification, and climate goals in Africa is unprecedented, yet the potential land use and freshwater impacts from this massive build-out of energy infrastructure is poorly understood. In this study, we characterize low-impact onshore wind, solar photovoltaics, and hydropower potential in Southern Africa and identify the cost-optimal mix of electricity generation technologies under different sets of socio-environmental land use and freshwater constraints and carbon targets. We find substantial wind and solar potential after applying land use protections, but about 40% of planned or proposed hydropower projects face socio-environmental conflicts. Applying land and freshwater protections results in more wind, solar, and battery capacity and less hydropower capacity compared to scenarios without protections. While a carbon target favors hydropower, the amount of cost-competitively selected hydropower is at most 45% of planned or proposed hydropower capacity in any scenario—and is only 25% under socio-environmental protections. Achieving both carbon targets and socio-environmental protections results in system cost increases of 3-6%. In the absence of land and freshwater protections, environmental and social impacts from new hydropower development could be significant.

The landscape of European policies in the power sector: first-mover advantages

In order to achieve the commonly agreed emission reduction target, the European Commission called upon the member states to submit National Energy and Climate Plans to ensure increased transparency for the respective national targets and strategies. An analysis of these plans shows that some member states have declared ambitious emission reductions targets, as well as technology-specific phaseout policies in the power sector. A transformation to a climate-friendly system requires considerable investment, the question arises if there are benefits to be in the vanguard. We find that countries may have an incentive to outperform in the development of a low-carbon electricity system.

Locational and market value of Renewable Energy Zones in Queensland

Efficient coordination in transmission planning and locating variable renewable energy (VRE) generation is important in transitioning to a low carbon electricity system. Renewable Energy Zones (REZ) provide an opportunity to strategically augment and expand the existing transmission network to maximise use of the available renewable resources. The Queensland region of Australia’s National Electricity Market provides a unique case for analysis, where complementary patterns of wind and solar supply exist across a broad geographical area. This article presents new information about the nine proposed REZ across the region and their utility in supplying energy as the incumbent fleet of baseload generators is forecast to retire. Understanding their locational and market value provides insight into the underlying cost of energy and its ability to satisfy energy demands. The recent entry cost shocks impacting the VRE industry in the post-pandemic recovery have been quantified, where increases of 23%–44% to the cost of energy have been observed. These increases have been driven by shifts in the capital and operating costs for new projects, which are compounded by the simultaneous increases to the cost of capital. Real world analysis has occurred to support the modelled outcomes and highlight the value of REZ in Queensland.

Cost-effective options and regional interdependencies of reaching a low-carbon European electricity system in 2035

With its European Green Deal, the European Union (EU) aims to substantially increase renewable electricity generation and decrease greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector by 2035. European countries independently set these targets, but might not account for cross-border infrastructure interdependencies that may facilitate or impede their implementation. This study quantifies regional interdependencies among 36 European countries aggregated to eight regions by applying electricity sector modeling, Modeling to Generate Alternatives, tree-based ensemble method, and scenario discovery. Cost-effectively reaching EU targets in 2035 allows for flexibility in uptake of electricity system infrastructure across European regions, with few exceptions. Reaching EU targets with low costs requires high renewable capacities in Central and Nordic Europe and France, steep reductions of fossil fuel capacities in Central and Eastern Europe, keeping existing nuclear capacities in France, and high storage capacities in Alpine and Central Europe. Regional targets are most influential for increasing renewable capacities, while EU targets are most influential for decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. If EU targets are met, reaching regional targets of Central Europe and keeping nuclear capacities in France substantially reduce infrastructure requirements in Eastern Europe, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation for electricity system planning and policy.

Material Requirements, Circularity Potential and Embodied Emissions Associated with Wind Energy

Wind energy, which is often posited as a key decarbonisation option, represents one of the fastest-growing energy sources globally in recent years. Research on the material requirements for transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system at national levels, as well as research exploring the potential of the electricity system to serve as a source of secondary materials remains underexplored. We address these gaps in the knowledge by analysing the stocks and flows in a wind power system towards 2050 using Sweden as a case study, including the demands for bulk (concrete and steel) and critical materials (neodymium and dysprosium), through a dynamic material flow analysis based on policy-relevant scenarios. We demonstrate that some of the investigated scenarios generate substantial increases in the stocks and flows of bulk and critical materials. We show that, after 2045, the year by which Sweden has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero, the inflows show a decreasing trend while the outflows show an increasing trend, suggesting the beginning of the closing of the material loops, provided untapped circularity potentials transform into actual capacities. For wind power to comply with emissions targets, the steel and concrete production processes will need to be decarbonised at a rate in line with the climate targets. We show that the adoption of mitigation measures to decarbonise the concrete and steel industries aligned with Sweden's climate change mitigation agenda, has the potential to reduce embodied carbon emissions for wind power infrastructure in 2045 from corresponding to around 4 % of current total national emissions in the absence of measures to practically negligible levels. National policies need to focus on promoting the implementation of circularity strategies and decarbonising the entire value chain of the involved materials.

Potential analysis of BESS and CCUS in the context of China's carbon trading scheme toward the low-carbon electricity system

To achieve the goal of low-carbon electricity transition, the carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and a battery energy storage system (BESS) are considered as promising tools for fossil power and renewable power, respectively, to overcome the disadvantages of high carbon intensity and fluctuant output. The potential of these two technologies in the context of carbon trading was systematically analyzed and compared using the real option approach. The results showed that the positive effect of the carbon trading on the adoption of the CCUS was more significant than that of a BESS. Specifically, the influence of the emission quota policy on the adoption of CCUS is limited at beginning because its effects on cost perception and benefit perception are counteractive. In terms of the indirect impacts of the emission trading scheme, electricity marketization can promote the utilization of CCUS and BESS. The potential revenue from selling electricity and emission quotas embodied in the additional operation time can significantly encourage fossil power enterprises to upgrade in advance. Additionally, the carbon cost delivered to the electricity price can increase the revenues of renewable power enterprises and promote the utilization of the BESS. Based on these findings, some policy implications are provided.

Carbon Reduction Countermeasure from a System Perspective for the Electricity Sector of Yangtze River Delta (China) by an Extended Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI)

The electricity sector is a complex system, especially in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China. Thus, the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission of YRD’s electricity sector during 2000–2020 was first calculated and then evaluated from two systematical dimensions of cross-region and the whole process (production, trade, transmission, and consumption) by an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI). (1) During 2000–2020, the CO2 emission of YRD’s electricity sector increased from 228.12 Mt to 807.55 Mt, with an average annual growth rate of 6.52%. Compared to other regions, the YRD’s electricity mix effect had the strongest mitigation impact on CO2 growth. Therefore, it is important for YRD to build a low-carbon electricity system itself, including the de-carbonization of electricity production and the carbon reduction of the electricity-use process. (2) Nationally, electricity trade had an overall mitigating impact on emission growth during 2000–2020. This result means that cross-regional cooperation or trade in the electricity sector is beneficial to emission reduction. So, it is important to improve the national power grids to promote trade. (3) Jiangsu had the largest CO2 emissions, while Anhui had the fastest average annual growth rate (9.71%). Moreover, the economic activity effect was the most significant driver in all provinces, especially in Jiangsu and Anhui. Thus, Jiangsu and Anhui should strive to improve the quality of economic growth while vigorously cutting carbon emissions. (4) Electricity transmission loss had an overall driving impact on emission growth in each YRD province, especially in Zhejiang and Anhui. Meanwhile, electricity structure, electricity trade, and electricity intensity were the inhibiting factors. Particularly, the inhibiting effect of Shanghai’s electricity structure was notably weak (−2.17 Mt). So, Shanghai should try hard to increase the proportion of renewable energy, while Zhejiang and Anhui should upgrade their electricity transmission equipment.

Mechanism and Influencing Factors of Low-Carbon Coal Power Transition under China's Carbon Trading Scheme: An Evolutionary Game Analysis.

To avoid the energy supply risk caused by the large-scale integration of renewable power with the grid, coal power plants with carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) have the potential to play an important role in the transition to a low-carbon electricity system. Based on evolutionary game theory, this study analyzed the equilibrium states, evolutionary trajectory and the corresponding critical conditions between the government and the coal power enterprises in this process. Subsequently, a numerical analysis was conducted. The results showed that the carbon trading scheme can directly promote the upgrade of coal power and this effect can be enhanced by establishing the market-oriented trading mechanism of electricity. The slack quota policy at the current stage can contribute to the emergence of the forerunners adopting the CCUS. The technical level of the CCUS had the most significant influence on the equilibrium of the game system. As technology advances, the game system can rapidly achieve the ideal stable strategy (of non-intervention, low-carbon upgrade). On this basis, the government should promote the synergetic development of the carbon market and power market. Additionally, more financial subsidies should be shifted to R&D (research and development) investment.

A change in the air? The role of offshore wind in Australia’s transition to a 100 % renewable grid

Rapid decarbonisation of electricity production is required if Australia is to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. Critical to achieving this at low cost while maintaining system reliability is the selection of an appropriate mix of generation technologies to service electrical demand. Australia has seen extensive deployment of renewable energy technologies such as onshore wind and solar but has not yet seen the adoption of offshore wind technology. However, there is currently significant interest in developing this resource, with ongoing debate occurring about future technology costs and the potential of onshore renewables to meet electrical demand.This article presents the results of an investigation into the techno-economic impact of exogenously fixing offshore wind capacity on a future least-cost Australian National Electricity Market with 100 % renewable generation. An existing open-source cost optimisation model, National Electricity Market Optimiser, was used for the study.It was found that increasing the capacity of offshore wind in the generation mix leads to displacement of both onshore wind and solar generators. This is due to the greater magnitude and consistency of the offshore wind resource relative to onshore. Increasing offshore wind capacity therefore tends to reduce the total system generation capacity, as well as the amount of unused surplus generation. Using lowest published projections for future capital costs, inclusion of offshore wind was found to reduce total system costs. Using an average of future cost projections, total system costs were found to increase. However, adding up to 15 GW of offshore wind capacity to a 100 % renewable system would only impact total system costs by 5 %. Given the other potential advantages of offshore wind, namely closer siting to load centres, reduced need for onshore land resources, and the potential to transition existing fossil fuel workers, our results suggest that offshore wind may be a suitable candidate for inclusion in Australia’s transition to a low carbon electricity system, under a range of future cost scenarios.

Vehicle to grid: driver plug-in patterns, their impact on the cost and carbon of charging, and implications for system flexibility

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) from electric vehicles (EVs) represents an opportunity to provide transitioning electricity systems with battery storage as they face increasing shares of variable renewable generation. However, whilst the availability of V2G as dispatchable storage depends on the travel and charging habits of drivers, there is scarce experience of managing portfolios of EVs in this way. This paper investigates the impact of plug-in frequency – given real-life travel data – on the potential of V2G to reduce i) consumer bills and ii) carbon emissions of charging. In doing so, we investigate the extent to which consumers are incentivised to participate in V2G, how this might change based on different charging behaviours, and what the implications are for V2G as a storage asset. Two models of plug-in behaviour are input into a time-coupled optimisation that schedules EV (dis)charging to minimise the net cost of an EV’s required energy gain within network constraints, simulating how V2G could be dispatched by a ‘load controller’ in a liberalised electricity market. The cost minimisation is based on the Octopus Agile V2G tariff in January 2021, which is matched to GB grid carbon intensity data from National Grid ESO for the same period. It was found that, on the basis of the time range studied, V2G can reduce the average price paid for EV-charging electricity by 28–67% versus a flat tariff – with the lower end of that range representing a case where consumers only plug in when they ‘need’ to, and the higher end representing the case where consumers plug in whenever their cars are at home. It was also found that due to the weak positive correlation between price and carbon during the time range studied, optimising for price also resulted in slight reductions in carbon intensity of the EV-charging electricity by 5–6% compared to uncontrolled charging, with the range representing the same cases as before. Taking into account a review of battery degradation costs from V2G, using an EV’s battery in this manner only makes financial sense to the owner if they maximise their plug-in frequency; this, alongside the increased savings, should provide an incentive to owners to plug in as much as possible – thereby maximising storage resource for a low carbon electricity system. • A time-coupled vehicle to grid (V2G) charging model is presented. • Drivers’ charging frequency significantly impacts storage resource from V2G. • Drivers who always plug in on arrival at home pay less for charging through V2G. • EV owners will be incentivised to plug in as often as possible. • Storage resource from electric vehicles will be maximised.

Enabling a low-carbon electricity system for Southern Africa

<h2>Summary</h2> Southern Africa faces the dual challenge of providing affordable energy to meet rapidly growing electricity demand while limiting carbon emissions and socio-environmental impacts. We combined open-source geospatial, hydrological, and electricity grid-investment models to develop cost-optimal low-carbon electricity pathways for Southern Africa. If technology and fuel prices continue to follow current trends, wind and solar technologies can become the dominant sources of electricity in the region by 2040. Importantly, no new coal capacity is built in any scenario except when inter-regional transmission is constrained. Furthermore, despite the abundant hydropower potential in the region, nearly half of the planned hydropower capacity is not cost competitive, thus supporting freshwater conservation efforts. An 80% clean energy target can halve annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, as compared with 2020, with only a modest 6% cost premium. Alternatively, retiring coal plants 20 years earlier could result in even greater emission reductions but could incur 12% higher annual costs.

Thermo-economic assessment of flexible nuclear power plants in future low-carbon electricity systems: Role of thermal energy storage

The increasing penetration of intermittent renewable power will require additional flexibility from conventional plants, in order to follow the fluctuating renewable output while guaranteeing security of energy supply. In this context, coupling nuclear reactors with thermal energy storage could ensure a more continuous and efficient operation of nuclear power plants, while at other times allowing their operation to become more flexible and cost-effective. This study proposes options for upgrading a 1610-MWel nuclear power plant with the addition of a thermal energy storage system and secondary power generators. The total whole-system benefits of operating the proposed configuration are quantified for several scenarios in the context of the UK’s national electricity system using a whole-system model that minimises the total system costs. The proposed configuration allows the plant to generate up to 2130MWel during peak load, representing an increase of 32% in nominal rated power. This 520MWel of additional power is generated by secondary steam Rankine cycle systems (i.e., with optimised cycle thermal efficiencies of 24% and 30%) and by utilising thermal energy storage tanks with a total heat storage capacity of 1950MWhth. Replacing conventional with flexible nuclear power plants is found to generate whole-system cost savings between £24.3m/yr and £88.9m/yr, with the highest benefit achieved when stored heat is fully discharged in 0.5 h. At an estimated cost of added flexibility of £42.7m/yr, the proposed flexibility upgrades to such nuclear power plants appears to be economically justified with net system benefits ranging from £4.0m/yr to £31.6m/yr for the examined low-carbon scenarios, provided that the number of flexible nuclear plants in the system is small. This suggests that the value of this technology is system dependent, and that system characteristics should be adequately considered when evaluating the benefits of different flexible nuclear plant configurations and choosing the most cost-effective designs and operational characteristics.

Renewable Power with Bess or Coal Power with Ccus? Potential Analysis in the Context of China's Carbon Trading Scheme Toward the Low-Carbon Electricity System

Renewable Power with Bess or Coal Power with Ccus? Potential Analysis in the Context of China's Carbon Trading Scheme Toward the Low-Carbon Electricity System

Modelling the Transition towards a Carbon-Neutral Electricity System—Investment Decisions and Heterogeneity

To achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement, greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector must be substantially reduced. We develop an agent-based model of the electricity system with heterogeneous agents who invest in power generating capacity under uncertainty. The heterogeneity is characterised by the hurdle rates the agents employ (to manage risk) and by their expectations of the future carbon prices. We analyse the impact of the heterogeneity on the transition to a low carbon electricity system. Results show that under an increasing CO2 tax scenario, the agents start investing heavily in wind, followed by nuclear and to some extent in natural gas fired power plants both with and without carbon capture and storage as well as biogas fired power plants. However, the degree to which different technologies are used depend strongly on the carbon tax expectations and the hurdle rate employed by the agents. Comparing to the case with homogeneous agents, the introduction of heterogeneity among the agents leads to a faster CO2 reduction. We also estimate the so called “cannibalisation effect” for wind and find that the absolute value of wind does not drop in response to higher deployment levels, but the relative value does decline.

Towards a low-carbon and circular economy: Scenarios for metal stocks and flows in the Dutch electricity system

Despite many studies of the metal requirements for a transition towards low-carbon electricity system, the potential of the electricity system as a source for secondary material remains underexplored. We addressed this gap, the potential circularity of the electricity system, by analyzing the stocks and flows in that system towards 2050, including electricity generation, storage and transmission technologies, for both bulk metals and critical minor metals. Our model was applied to the Netherlands and was based upon detailed energy scenarios, presenting various governance structures for the Dutch energy transition. We show that the transition towards a low-carbon electricity system results in a strong growth of metal stocks and flows, both for bulk metals and for minor metals, especially for scenarios with higher levels of self-sufficiency in (renewable) electricity generation. These scenarios also show larger discrepancies between in and outflows. However, metal demand could decline substantially if material efficiencies improve, or when technologies with lower material intensities are chosen, especially for critical raw materials. While the potential for urban mining grows over time, at present a significant share of decommissioned components of the electricity system turns into hibernating stocks and remains unused, resulting in a missed opportunity for repurposing of valuable metals. National policies could therefore be aimed at maximizing collection of metals from the urban mine, together with the deployment of recycling capacity and stimulating material efficiency through technological development.

Financing the Transition Toward Carbon Neutrality—an Agent-Based Approach to Modeling Investment Decisions in the Electricity System

Transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system requires investments on a very large scale. These investments require access to capital, but that access can be challenging to obtain. Most energy system models do not (explicitly) model investment financing and thereby fail to take this challenge into account. In this study, we develop an agent-based model, where we explicitly include power sector investment financing. We find that different levels of financing constraints and capital availabilities noticeably impact companies' investment choices and economic performances and that this, in turn, impacts the development of the electricity capacity mix and the pace at which CO2emissions are reduced. Limited access to capital can delay investments in low-carbon technologies. However, if the financing constraint is too relaxed, the risk of going bankrupt can increase. In general, companies that anticipate carbon prices too high above or too far below the actual development, along with those that use a low hurdle rate, are the ones that are more likely to go bankrupt. Emissions are cut more rapidly when the carbon tax grows faster, but there is overall a greater tendency for agents to go bankrupt when the tax grows faster. Our energy transition model may be particularly useful in the context of the least financially developed markets.

Temporal-spatial determinants of renewable energy penetration in electricity production: Evidence from EU countries

The challenge of global warming requires deep decarbonization of the electricity system, which can be achieved with a higher share of renewables in the electricity mix. However, the driving mechanism for renewable penetration in electricity production has not been clearly revealed so far. Using the data of the European Union (EU) during 2001–2017, this paper aims to investigate the spatial-temporal heterogeneity and dynamic evolution mechanism of renewable electricity penetration. To this end, from the investment-production-consumption perspective, renewable electricity generation is decomposed into seven factors through temporal and spatial factor decomposition methods. Then, this paper integrates the factor decomposition results into a coupling elasticity analysis to study the dynamic evolution mechanism of renewable penetration in electricity production. The results are as follows. (1) Investment structure contributes the most to increasing renewable electricity generation, while the energy intensity effect and renewable generation-to-capacity ratio effect are the main reasons for the reduction in renewable electricity generation. The effect of technological structure is minor. (2) The economic scale effect and the investment structure effect are dominating factors accounting for the regional difference of renewable power generation between the EU countries and the benchmark region. (3) The progress of renewable electricity penetration accelerates over time for the EU, western EU, and eastern EU. The Western EU has realized remarkable progress in facilitating renewable electricity penetration during 2009–2017. (4) On the whole, the investment effect makes the largest contribution to promoting renewable electricity penetration, while the production effect is the major inhibiting factor, showing that there is considerable potential in renewable generation efficiency improvement in the EU. This paper provides insightful implications for energy policies aimed at the shift towards a low-carbon electricity system in the EU, which also gives a reference for other economies.

A perspective on the efficacy of green gas production via integration of technologies in novel cascading circular bio-systems

Presently more energy is sourced from the natural gas grid than the electricity grid in the EU and the US. Furthermore hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy-duty transport are not readily served by electricity. Decarbonised energy systems will require renewable fuels (such as biomethane) to reduce the reliance on fossil-based diesel and natural gas. Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a technology which with other bio-based technologies can effect improved energy conversion and reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across sectors beyond energy. Here, an AD-centred cascading circular system with carbon capture and utilisation was proposed by incorporating power to gas (P2G), microbial electrolysis cell (MEC), and digestate valorisation for biochar production. The system as modelled converted CO2 to biomethane and digestate to biochar for CO2 sequestration. This was exemplified through cattle slurry with an annual production of 3.03 billion tons in three studied regions (the EU, China and the US), which was shown to produce a maximum of 2.29 EJ (equivalent to 1.64% of natural gas demand in 2018) of total energy in the form of advanced biofuels (biomethane, bio-oil and syngas) via the AD-MEC system, which was preferable to a conventional AD or an AD-P2G system. The treatment of cattle slurry with AD-MEC led to a combined 397.4 MtCO2e of GHG emission savings in the three regions. This could contribute to avoiding 2.0% of GHG emissions (total 20.1 GtCO2e) in the three regions. The sustainability of such a system was shown to be dependent on access to low-carbon and low-cost electricity systems.