Low-carbon Electricity Generation Research Articles

Water Scarcity Assessment of Hydropower Plants in China under Climate Change, Sectoral Competition, and Energy Expansion.

Hydropower plays a pivotal role in low-carbon electricity generation, yet many projects are situated in regions facing heightened water scarcity risks. This research devised a plant-level Hydropower Water Scarcity Index (HWSI), derived from the ratio of water demand for electricity generation to basin-scale available runoff water. We assessed the water scarcity of 1736 hydropower plants in China for the baseline year 2018 and projected into the future from 2025 to 2060. The results indicate a notable increase in hydropower generation facing moderate to severe water scarcity (HWSI >0.05), rising from 10% in 2018 to 24-34% of the national total (430-630 TWh), with a projected peak in the 2030s-2040s under the most pessimistic scenarios. Hotspots of risk are situated in the southwest and northern regions, primarily driven by decreased river basin runoff and intensified sectoral water use, rather than by hydropower demand expansion. Comparative analysis of four adaptation strategies revealed that sectoral water savings and enhancing power generation efficiency are the most effective, potentially mitigating a high of 16% of hydropower risks in China. This study provides insights for formulating region-specific adaptation strategies and assessing energy-water security in the face of evolving environmental and societal challenges.

Governance perspectives on achieving demand side flexibility for net zero

Net-zero has rapidly become the accepted way of framing mitigation policy and sustainable development goals. A critical step to achieve net zero targets consists of demand side flexibility, i.e. the ability to flex consumption according to levels of low carbon electricity generation. There is much emphasis on the importance of reaching high levels of flexibility, as this will enable balancing of renewables supply with demand, hence lowering energy costs. However, little attention has been paid to governance aspects, i.e. how demand side flexibility can happen and which institutions are responsible for delivering it. This policy perspective paper makes use of net-zero “good governance” principles to review evidence on demand side flexibility governance in the UK. It discusses which areas are most relevant and how they could best be developed.

Repurposing coal plants—regional economic impacts from low carbon generation

Repurposing coal power plants in the United States may provide significant opportunities to incentivize low-carbon and renewable electricity generation created by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Re-using coal sites for their existing electric grid interconnections and infrastructure could reduce costs and provide benefits to coal-based communities experiencing energy transitions. This study estimates local employment, labor income, and tax revenue effects from renewable and low-carbon generation options repurposing coal power plants and meeting their economic impacts at existing coal plant sites in North Carolina. The study bridges gaps in energy transition studies by including site feasibility assessment of advanced reactors for former coal power plant sites, renewable electricity generation, and thermal energy storage. It also considers cost advantages of reusing existing power plant interconnections, IRA discounts, and generation technology economic impacts using IMPLAN. A least-cost quadratic optimization model considers different site-specific electricity generation portfolios to analyze site-based economic impacts and associated technology costs meeting or exceeding site-based coal generation and its economic impacts. This study finds that replacing coal generation costs less than maintaining the current coal fleet, a technology-inclusive portfolio provides the least-cost pathway, and benefits may exceed site-based impacts of existing coal plants. Local tax revenues from advanced reactors and thermal energy storage systems may increase revenues by at least $28 million. Across all repurposing scenarios, replacing existing coal plants with energy storage, renewable, and low-carbon generation leads to net employment growth and tax revenues, indicating further benefits to a rapid and more equitable decarbonization through economic development.

The role of natural gas in setting electricity prices in Europe

The EU energy and climate policy revolves around enhancing energy security and affordability, while reducing the environmental impacts of energy use. The European energy transition has been at the centre of debate following the post-pandemic surge in power prices in 2021 and the energy crisis following the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Understanding the extent to which electricity prices depend on fossil fuel prices (specifically natural gas) is key to guiding the future of energy policy in Europe. To this end, we quantify the role of fossil-fuelled vs. low-carbon electricity generation in setting wholesale electricity prices in each EU-27 country plus Great Britain (GB) and Norway during 2015-2021. We apply econometric analysis and use sub/hourly power system data to estimate the marginal share of each electricity generation type. The results show that fossil fuel-based power plants set electricity prices in Europe at approximately 58% of the time (natural gas 39%) while generating only 34% of electricity (natural gas 18%) a year. The energy transition has made natural gas the main electricity price setter in Europe, with gas determining electricity prices for more than 80% of the hours in 2021 in several countries such as Belgium, GB, Greece, Italy, and the Netherlands. Hence, Europe’s electricity markets are highly exposed to the geopolitical risk of gas supply and natural gas price volatility, and the economic risk of currency exchange.

The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in Azerbaijan: Is there room to export more?

Natural gas is frequently introduced as a “transitional fuel”. Because burning natural gas emits less carbon dioxide emissions than burning either oil or coal. Additionally, the intermittent nature of low-carbon electricity generation creates imperative for using natural gas for power generation. The role of natural gas is currently under scrutiny as climate change transforms into a climate crisis. Meanwhile, share of natural gas in the primary energy consumption of Azerbaijan is 69%, while 94% of the country’s electricity is currently being generated in natural gas-fired power plants. In this manner, this paper estimates income and price elasticities of natural gas demand for the Azerbaijan case. In this study, various sets of estimation techniques are utilized. By modeling natural gas demand with different estimation methods, including Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Structural Time Series Modeling, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares Method, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Canonical Cointegrating Regression, and General to Specific under Autometrics multi-path search machine learning algorithm, we try to find if there is room for the country to export more. All these utilized estimation methods confirmed the long-run income elasticity to be around 0.8, while the long-run price elasticity is around −0.1. Both estimations provide insights in terms of energy security and electricity security for policymakers during the implementation process of climate, energy, and environmental policy. Findings of this study classify natural as a necessity and normal good for the Azerbaijan case. The main policy implication of this study is that policymakers must enable and facilitate the availability of close renewable substitutes for residential and commercial customers. Estimated elasticities suggest that with rising national income, demand for natural gas will keep increasing, and efficient consumption will not be attainable with increasing prices. In the pursuit of export potential, findings suggest that it is more relevant to free up natural gas allocated from power generation by substituting it with renewable energy sources.

BENEFITS, RISKS AND TRADE-OFFS IN RENEWABLE AND LOW CARBON TECHNOLOGIES FOR GREEN ENERGY ELECTRICITYPRODUCTION IN INDIA

Global energy demand is expected to double by 2050, necessitating an estimated investment of 2.5 trillion USD per year in new energy installations and energy conservation initiatives over the next twenty years. Furthermore, rising energy demand and climate change efforts necessitate a significant increase in low-carbon electricity generation. However, there is concern that rapid investment in some novel technologies may result in a new set of environmental problems. When compared to coal, electricity generated by hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal power can reduce emissions of not only greenhouse gases (by more than 90%), but also pollutants hazardous to human health and ecosystems (by 60-90%). CO2 collection and storage from fossil fuel power plants will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 70% while increasing pollutants affecting human health and ecosystems by 5-80%. On the other side, there is a risk that the widespread adoption of low-carbon energy technology, while beneficial in lowering GHG emissions, will result in new environmental and societal consequences. India's installed power capacity is approximately 408.72 GW. India has achieved 166GW of renewable energy capacity. India has met its NDC target of 159.95 GW of non-fossil-based installed energy capacity, accounting for 41.4% of total installed electrical capacity. The major goal of adopting renewable and low-carbon green energy technology in India is to drive economic growth, improve energy security, increase energy access, and reduce climate change. This paper discusses the benefits, risks and trade-offs in renewable and low-carbon technologies for green energy electricity production in India. This study has adopted secondary research methods such as articles, journals, government reports, etc on renewable and low carbon energy. This study presents various investment benefits, employment opportunities and challenges in renewable and low carbon energy in India. Moreover, this study provides recommendations to foster the expansion of renewable and low-carbon technologies for green energy electricity production in India.

Long-term electricity generation analysis and policy implications – the case of Ghana

The pursuit of a cost-effective and low-carbon electricity generation environment is critical to achieving Ghana's economic and industrial ambitions. Ghana’s development agenda calls for an average electricity consumption of about 5,000 kWh per capita by 2030. To this end, the effective harnessing of energy resources requires the implementation of robust policies for sustainable electricity generation. This study employs the IAEA MESSAGE analytical tool to conduct a quantitative assessment of electricity generation in Ghana from 2020 to 2048. The findings show that, by 2048, a diversified electricity generation scenario will result in a 32.30% decrease in cost and a 55.27% reduction in CO2 emissions, compared to an accelerated economic growth (AEG) scenario, which will increase cost and CO2 emissions by 12.21% and 21.10%, respectively. The results underscore the importance of ensuring that electricity generation policies balance economic, environmental, and social concerns. Achieving a green energy transition agenda in Ghana and other developing nations will require a long-term commitment to a generation mix that is both sustainable and economically viable. The implementation of such a policy will require an informed and dedicated effort from all stakeholders.

Equilibrium analysis for prosumer’s participation in joint electricity and carbon markets

The current electricity system has a large number of carbon emissions. As an environmentally friendly and low-carbon electricity generation source, distributed energy sources gradually get more and more attention. However, the participation of a large number of distributed energy sources brings uncertainty to the operation of the electricity market. Prosumers could effectively avoid the instability caused by the participation of distributed energy sources in the electricity market. At present, the strategy of the prosumer participating in the electricity market has been thoroughly studied. However, equilibrium analysis for prosumer’s participation in joint electricity and carbon markets still needs to be studied in depth. Therefore, we propose a method for the prosumer to participate in the joint electricity and carbon markets, which could effectively reduce carbon emissions. First, we build a carbon market model. Then, the equilibrium model of the prosumer’s participation in joint electricity and carbon markets is constructed. The equilibrium model can realize the equilibrium between the coordination of prosumers and joint markets. Finally, we adopt an iterative algorithm to solve the equilibrium model. Prosumers and joint electricity and carbon markets transmit marginal information to each other. According to the marginal information. The equilibrium between Prosumer and joint markets is solved through iteration by self-optimization and self-decision. Case studies based on the IEEE 30-bus system verify the effectiveness of the model and method proposed in this paper.

Future demand for electricity generation materials under different climate mitigation scenarios

<h2>Summary</h2> Achieving global climate goals will require prodigious increases in low-carbon electricity generation, raising concerns about the scale of materials needed and associated environmental impacts. Here, we estimate power generation infrastructure demand for materials and related carbon-dioxide-equivalent (CO₂eq) emissions from 2020 to 2050 across 75 different climate-energy scenarios and explore the impact of climate and technology choices upon material demand and carbon emitted. Material demands increase but cumulatively do not exceed geological reserves. However, annual production of neodymium (Nd), dysprosium (Dy), tellurium (Te), fiberglass, and solar-grade polysilicon may need to grow considerably. Cumulative CO₂ emissions related to materials for electricity infrastructure may be substantial (4–29 Gt CO₂eq in 1.5°C scenarios) but consume only a minor share of global carbon budgets (1%–9% of a 320 Gt CO₂eq 1.5°C 66% avoidance budget). Our results highlight how technology choices and mitigation scenarios influence the large quantities of materials mobilized during a future power sector decarbonization.

Significance of Insulation and Heat Pumps in Decarbonising the UK

This paper examines the economic case for the UK to proceed urgently with the installation of thermal insulation and heat pumps in most UK buildings, in the context of the legal requirement to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. A recent study by the same authors assumed that such insulation and heat pumps would be in place, and showed how the whole of the UK’s energy demand could be met by low carbon electricity generation and appropriate storage. This paper extends the modelling to consider the risk that insulation is not widely installed, fossil gas boilers are retired (as they must be) but are replaced only by resistive heating, which is the pessimistic but likely outcome in the absence of heat pumps. Unsurprisingly, resistive heating and lack of insulation is shown to consume vastly more electricity: an increase of 608% for space heating and 52% overall. The contribution of this paper is in quantifying the seasonal variations and implications for generation and storage, which make the overall costs increase by an even greater proportion: almost doubling. In particular, peak electricity demand is 130% higher and required peak generation is 140% higher without extra insulation and heat pumps. The paper also illustrates the timely return on capital invested in insulation and heat pumps, primarily because they are cheaper than the additional wind turbines and energy storage required otherwise. The additional costs of failing to insulate and install heat pumps escalate to £63bn per year in levelised energy costs alone, and greatly increase the risk of the UK failing to reach net-zero. The financial break-even point for the costs of retrofitting the entire building stock is shown to be just 15 years from the start of a 28-year retrofitting campaign, with increasing cost savings thereafter. The paper shows that it is both necessary and cost effective to retrofit all buildings with proper insulation and heat pumps.

Проблема энергетической безопасности Великобритании во время и после Брекзита (март 2017 – 2022 гг.)

The article is devoted to the problem of the ensuring the UK energy security during the UK exit from the European Union (Brexit) (March 28, 2017 – December 31, 2020) and after it (till 2022). The problem is considered in its evolution: from the cabinets of Theresa May (July 2016 – July 2019), via the activity of the Boris Johnson’s cabinets (July 2019 – September 2022), and up to the steps made by Liz Truss’s cabinet (September – October 2022) and by the current cabinet of Rishi Sunak (from October 25, 2022 till now) to strengthen the UK energy security. The article shows that the diversification of the British energy sector into the direction of growing use of low-cost, low-carbon electricity generation (on the nuclear power and the renewable energy sources) was a key for solving simultaneously several problems during and after Brexit. The quick development of the electricity generation by the renewable energy sources (especially by the construction of offshore wind and solar farms) helped to reduce the dependence of British economy on the fossil fuel supply from unstable countries of the world and from the EU and in this regard was considered by T. May’s cabinet as a mean to strengthen the UK’s position in Brexit negotiation with the EU. The successful development of electricity generation from renewable energy sources also facilitated the reduction of greenhouse gases emission (as a part of international efforts to mitigate global climate change) along with the UK economic growth and let the UK, as the first country in the world, set course for decarbonization of British economy by 2050. The author comes to the conclusion that the problems of reducing greenhouse gases emission and of reaching self-sufficiency by the British energy system have remained the main ones in ensuring the UK energy security after Brexit.

Unscented Kalman filter-based blade-effective wind speed estimation for a vertical-axis wind turbine

On-shore horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) provide a cost-effective solution for low carbon electricity generation. However, public acceptance is still a problem. A possible alternative to a HAWT is a vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT), which is more visually appealing and less noisy. Furthermore, the inherent omni-directionality of VAWTs makes them suitable for installation in urban environments where the turbulence levels are high, and the wind direction variations are significant. However, the variation with the azimuth angle of the blade-effective wind speed and the angle of attack makes VAWT performance difficult to predict. This study proposes a wind speed estimator for a VAWT to address this challenge and to exploit knowledge of the blade-effective wind speed for load reduction control strategies. An Unscented Kalman Filter is used to solve the blade-effective wind speed estimation problem and is applied to a realistic 1.5 m two-bladed H-Darrieus VAWT model, for which the aerodynamic characteristics are determined using an actuator cylinder model. The system performance is evaluated using different wind speed variation scenarios. Overall, good agreement between the reference and estimated blade-effective wind speed is found both in terms of trend and absolute values.

Optimizing the aluminum supply chain network subject to the uncertainty of carbon emissions trading market

Aluminum production is characterized by high electricity consumption; hence its decarbonization hinges on upstream low-carbon electricity generation. As a result, the supply chain of aluminum product manufacturing can be strongly affected by the uncertainty of carbon emissions price via electricity generation. This paper investigates these impacts on the strategic design and the tactic operations of the aluminum supply chain by constructing a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) model, in which carbon price uncertainty and demand uncertainty are both accounted for. The supply chain case in the study covers a full process from upstream power generation to end-use consumption. A variety of stochastic carbon price scenarios are designed and assessed. Sensitivity analysis with respect to demand fluctuation is also performed. The results show that carbon price uncertainty significantly affects the configuration of the whole system. The main driving forces are the supplier selection and configuration alteration triggered by the carbon price variation, whereas other metrics such as carbon emissions costs and the responses to demand fluctuations display complicated patterns of change. This study provides a useful analytical framework that can be applied to the planning problem for other industries facing the same challenge.

Energy Policy for Agrivoltaics in Alberta Canada

As Alberta increases conventional solar power generation, land-use conflicts with agriculture increase. A solution that enables low-carbon electricity generation and continued (in some cases, increased) agricultural output is the co-locating of solar photovoltaics (PV) and agriculture: agrivoltaics. This review analyzes policies that impact the growth of agrivoltaics in Alberta. Solar PV-based electricity generation is governed by three regulations based on system capacity. In addition, agrivoltaics falls under various legislations, frameworks, and guidelines for land utilization. These include the Land Use Framework, Alberta Land Stewardship Act, Municipal Government Act, Special Areas Disposition, Bill 22, and other policies, which are reviewed in the agrivoltaics context. Several policies are recommended to support the rapid deployment of agrivoltaics. Openly accessible agrivoltaics research will help optimize agrivoltaic systems for the region, and can be coupled with public education to galvanize social acceptability of large-scale PV deployment. Clearly defining and categorizing agrivoltaics technology, developing agrivoltaics standards, making agrivoltaics technology-friendly regulations and frameworks, and developing programs and policies to incentivize agrivoltaics deployment over conventional PV will all accelerate the technology’s deployment. Through these measures, Alberta can achieve conservation and sustainability in the food and energy sectors while simultaneously addressing their renewable energy and climate-related goals.

Simulation of Pathways toward Low-Carbon Electricity Generation in the Arctic

This paper examines the various pathways toward energy transition available to remote Arctic communities. Inhabitants of Arctic communities often face significant cost burdens due to high energy prices. Electricity costs are particularly high, due in part to the predominant use of diesel for electricity generation in over 80% of remote Arctic communities. This study examines the different approaches for integrating renewable energy sources, with a focus on the different strategies that might be implemented to finance the energy transition toward greater use of such renewable sources. The high costs associated with project realization in the remote Arctic present special challenges. This study uses a system dynamics model to evaluate the various financing tools available to facilitate the energy transition. The model results indicate that the integration of renewable energy sources has the potential to yield long-term electricity cost savings for the remote Arctic communities in question.

Special Issue on “Breeding Blanket: Design, Technology and Performance”

A prerequisite for establishing fusion power as one of the sources for low-carbon electricity generation is the demonstration of the capability of future fusion power plants in achieving tritium self-sufficiency and its capability of efficiently producing electricity; both these functions are related to breeding blanket systems, a key component in the transition from ITER to the first generation of nuclear reactors [...]

Plant-level mitigation strategies could enable carbon neutrality by 2060 and reduce non-CO2 emissions in China’s iron and steel sector

<h2>Summary</h2> Achieving carbon neutrality in the hard-to-abate iron and steel industry requires feasible mitigation at the plant level. Presently, decarbonization pathways are mainly assessed at the country or sector level, whereas plant specifics and regional differences in socioeconomic conditions have been underexplored. Here, we take China, the world's largest iron and steel producer, as an example and assess decarbonization pathways at the plant level using a provincial AIM/Enduse model. Our results reveal that a mix of tax policy, environmental policy, and low-carbon electricity generation can transform the iron and steel production and energy structure. It is feasible that by 2060 renewable and hydrogen-sourced energy could contribute as much as 86% of total consumed energy and CO₂ emissions could decrease by 83%, relative to 2015, with co-benefits associated with a reduction in air pollutants and mercury emissions. Further implementation of carbon capture and storage, waste energy recycling, and electric arc furnaces could bring China's iron and steel industry closer to carbon neutrality.

An assessment of strategies for sustainability priority challenges in Jordan using a water–energy–food Nexus approach

This study aimed at supporting robust decision-making for planning and management of water–energy–food Nexus systems in the country of Jordan. Nexus priority challenges in Jordan were identified as (1) water scarcity, (2) agricultural productivity and water quality, and (3) shift to energy independence. We created a water–energy–food Nexus model that integrates three modelling frameworks: (1) the Water Evaluation and Planning system WEAP model to estimate water demands, supplies and allocation; (2) the MABIA model to estimate crop production, and, (3) a GIS-based energy modelling tool to estimate energy requirements of the water system. Through a set of scenario runs, results show how desalination is needed to address water scarcity, but it has to be coupled with low-carbon electricity generation in order to not exacerbate climate change. Improving water productivity in agriculture improves most of the studied dimensions across the water–energy–food security nexus; however, it does little for water scarcity at the municipal level. Reducing non-revenue water can have positive effects on municipal unmet demand and reduction of energy for pumping, but it does not improve agricultural water productivity and may have negative feedback effects on the Jordan Valleys aquifer levels. Energy efficiency can support energy-intensive projects, like desalination, by substantially reducing the load on the energy system, preventing increased emissions and achieving a more resilient water system. Finally, when all interventions are considered together all of the major drawbacks are reduced and the benefits augmented, producing a more holistic solution to the WEF Nexus challenges in Jordan.

The contribution of nuclear and other low carbon electricity generation technologies towards Nigeria’s carbon neutrality journey

The latest estimate of the United State Energy Information Administration (US-EIA) shows that Nigeria is the largest producer of oil in Africa with largest natural gas reserves on the continent and the fifth–largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the World. In 2017, Nigeria's generation capacity was 12,664 megawatts (MW), with 10,522 MW representing 83% from fossil fuels, 2,110 MW representing 17% from hydropower, and 32 MW accounting for 1% coming from solar, wind, biomass, and other sources. The fossil power plants constitutes the major driver in greenhouse gas emission, therefore reduction in its operation will reduce the rate of carbon emission. To achieve carbon neutrality in line with the Paris agreement of 2015, the need for nuclear and other low carbon emission renewable electricity generation technologies is vital. This study utilizes the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) code in modelling energy supply needs for Nigeria using various electricity generation technologies. By placing the upper limit on carbon emission constraints, discount rate of 11.5% and other electricity generation data obtained from EIA. Using the modelling period of forty-five (45) years with a base year of 2015 the results shows that the contribution of fossil is bound below the upper limit while that of hydro continue to increase from 2016 to the end of the modelling year. Contribution from nuclear power plant starts from 2029, and continue to increase throughout the modeling period which suppressing contribution from fossil below the upper limit of CO2, The negligible contribution from solar and wind been suppressed by nuclear and hydro power plants. The results shows that nuclear and other low carbon energy technologies are the preeminent alternative for future electricity production in achieving carbon neutrality target.

Assessing trade-offs among electrification and grid decarbonization in a clean energy transition: Application to New York State

A modeling framework is presented to investigate trade-offs among decarbonization from increased low-carbon electricity generation and electrification of heating and vehicles. The model is broadly applicable but relies on high-fidelity parameterization of existing infrastructure and anticipated electrified loads; this study applies it to New York State where detailed data is available. Trade-offs are investigated between end use electrification and renewable energy deployment in terms of supply costs, generation and storage capacities, renewable resource mix, and system operation. Results indicate that equivalent emissions reductions can be achieved at lower costs to the grid by prioritizing electrification with 40–70% low-carbon electricity supply instead of aiming for complete grid decarbonization. With 60% electrification and 50% low-carbon electricity, approximately 1/3 emissions reductions can be achieved at current supply costs; with only 20% electrification, 90% low-carbon electricity is required to achieve the same emissions reductions, resulting in 43% higher grid costs. In addition, three primary cost drivers are identified for a system undergoing decarbonization: (1) decreasing per-unit costs of existing infrastructure with increasing electrified demand, (2) higher in-state generation costs from low-carbon sources relative to gas-based and hydropower generation, and (3) increasing integration costs at high percentages of low-carbon electricity.