Low-carbon Development Policies Research Articles

Russiaʼs Low Carbon Development Policy:Opportunities and Constraints in the New Economicand Political Reality

Russia's model of economic development, based on hydrocarbon exports, initially determined the country's scepticism toward low-carbon transformation. However, the growing negative effects of climate change, manifesting in increased natural disasters (floods, fires, extreme heat), as well as extraterritorial measures imposed by major trading partners, which could potentially limit market access, led to a transformation of the perceived climate change challenge and the adoption of a range of policy documents and regulations to articulate and implement a low-carbon development policy in Russia. The targets and measures have been criticized for lacking ambition and rigour, but still pushed the processes without which the economy would continue to face the negative effects of climate change and increasing constraints in global markets. The geopolitical crisis of 2022 and widening sanctions have significantly constrained Russia’s ability to meet climate targets. Despite this, mechanisms to promote decarbonization in key sectors continue to be developed. In addition, opportunities for cooperation with some major non-western economies have not closed. This article analyzes Russia's strategic documents and key low-carbon development policies, including the activities of major companies. It provides perspective on the role of forest climate projects as well as their drawbacks and risks, the Sakhalin experiment to achieve carbon neutrality in the region and how it is implemented through concrete initiatives, the prospects and limitations of the hydrogen industry, the challenges and tools for decarbonizing transport, state of play in the carbon capture, use and storage technologies, the criteria for green projects, and the situation on the green bond market. It also identifies two important areas which gain importance as the climate transition scales up: nuclear power and the extraction and production of critical raw materials. Based on the analysis, recommendations are given on promising areas of cooperation between Russia and its BRICS and EAEU partners.

Integrating carbon mitigation, PM2.5 reduction, and livelihood improvement: A non-equilibrium dynamic urban analysis in Beijing

Cities that are characterized by high populations and economic activities are carbon-intensive and highly susceptible to the effects of climate change. The majority of existing research on urban low-carbon development employs macro models to analyze influencing factors and emission pathways; however, such studies do not derive detailed descriptions about urban structure, commuting mode and residential characteristics, or capture cities’ dynamic evolution. This study develops a non-equilibrium dynamic urban model specifically for Beijing (NEDUM-Beijing) that is based on existing NEDUM-2D to capture housing construction, residential housing, and commuting patterns specific to Beijing. Using the model, this study simulates and analyzes the impacts of low-carbon development policies on urban expansion, pollution reduction, carbon mitigation, and residents’ livelihood (2025–2060). Results show that carbon tax and new energy vehicle policies have limited effect on urban form and do not substantially cause urban sprawl. A carbon tax of 100 yuan/ton appears insufficient to achieve considerable reduction in CO2 and PM2.5 emissions. The promotion of new energy vehicles can reduce transportation emissions slightly, with a long-term reduction ratio of 0.54%–2.62%. Restricting the residential land and floor area ratio may reduce overall housing supply, cause lower average dwelling size, and encourage suburban relocation.

Evaluation on evolution of spatial relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is not only an important economic center in China, but also one of the major regions contributing to China's carbon emissions. Revealing the spatial distribution between carbon emissions and economic growth is essential for the formulation of low-carbon development policies. Following the principle from macro to micro, this paper investigates the spatial evolution trend and distribution characteristics between carbon emissions and economic growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2020 by applying imbalance index model, the rank-scale rule, and decoupling index model. The results show that the imbalance index of carbon emissions decreased between 0.0601 and 0.0533 in a fluctuating way, indicating that the imbalance of spatial distribution of carbon emissions decreases. The imbalance index of economic growth increased between 0.0738 and 0.0851, indicating that economic growth has become more disequilibrated, and the spatial evolution of carbon emissions is not coordinated with economic growth. The Zipf dimension of carbon emissions declined from 1.1806 in 2005 to 0.9594 in 2020, and carbon emissions declined in big cities and increased in cities of the middle order. The Zipf dimension of economic growth increased from 1.1384 in 2005 to 1.2388 in 2020, and the economic growth monopoly in big cities increased. The decoupling coefficient of carbon emissions to economic growth declined, and the driving effect of economic growth on carbon emissions diminished. It is recommended that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should coordinate the allocation of factors and coordinate industrial adjustment. Hebei should accelerate industrial upgrading and establish a diversified industrial system.

Low-carbon development policies and achievements in the context of the livestock sector in China

Low-carbon development policies and achievements in the context of the livestock sector in China

Urban Planning Strategies Based on Green and Low-Carbon: A Case Study in Guangzhou City, China

The promotion of urbanization has become a major trend in the development of the new era. It brings cities rapid economic growth but also leads to significant carbon emissions. Cities are crucial in adopting low-carbon development policies and carrying out carbon reduction initiatives since they are large sources of energy use and emissions of greenhouse gases. The building of low-carbon cities has been essential at a time when carbon neutrality and carbon peaking have become the consensus and mission of humanity. Following the theory of low-carbon urban growth theory, the article takes Guangzhou city in China as an example, describes its low-carbon policies in urban planning during different periods, and discusses its low-carbon initiatives and effectiveness. It is known that Guangzhou is now constructing a low-carbon metropolis but has issues with two distinct aspects of transportation and industrial transformation. The urban transportation system needs to be improved, and the industry needs to upgrade and transform. In response to the problems, this article recommends countermeasures to intensify efforts to enhance public transportation and enable the low-carbon transformation of industry in order to promote the green and scientific growth of Guangzhou as a low-carbon city.

Research on the low carbon development path of China's coal industry under carbon peaking & carbon neutral target: Based on the RCPs-SSPs framework

Coal industry is one of the important engines of China's economic development and one of the key units in advancing the goal of CO2 peaking and CO2 neutrality. This study systematically measured the CO2 emissions of coal resources at the stages of mining and washing, transportation, processing and conversion, and consumption and utilization from a whole life cycle perspective, analyzed the drivers of CO2 emissions using the Kaya-LMDI model, and set up scenarios based on the RCPs-SSPs framework to explore the CO2 peaking paths. The specific findings were as follows. (1) The CO2 emissions of this industry increased from 2224.62 Mt to 7676.63 Mt from 2000 to 2020, an annual increase 6.39%. Among them, the processing and conversion stage is the main contributor to the CO2 emission, and its CO2 emission increases from 1296.23 Mt to 5003.65 Mt, an annual increase 6.99%. (2) Industrial structure, energy efficiency, and energy structure factors showed negative inhibitory effects on CO2 emissions in this industry. Further, from the trend of the driving effects of each factor, the inhibitory effects of industrial structure and energy structure on CO2 emissions showed an increasing trend, and the inhibitory effects of energy efficiency on CO2 emissions showed an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend. (3) The results of the scenario analysis showed that the sustainability-oriented scenario is the low-carbon development state that this industry can achieve through more comprehensive and active initiatives in achieving the expected socio-economic development goals, and it is also a relatively reasonable path to achieve CO2 peak and CO2 neutrality. Under this scenario, the total CO2 emission of China's coal industry in 2030 reaches 10.044 billion tons, which is 1.083 billion tons less than that of the status quo continuation scenario in 2030, and the CO2 reduction effect is obvious. These findings can provide a reference for the improvement of low-carbon development policies in the coal industry.

Temporal and Spatial Differences in CO2 Equivalent Emissions and Carbon Compensation Caused by Land Use Changes and Industrial Development in Hunan Province

The differences in CO2 equivalent emissions and carbon compensation due to land use changes can provide a basis for formulating low-carbon development policies in various regions according to net CO2 emissions. Based on the land use and energy consumption data of Hunan Province from 2000 to 2020, the calculation model is constructed to calculate the CO2 equivalent emissions and carbon compensation values for different cities in different periods. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, there was a significant growth trend in the area of built-up land in Hunan Province, mainly from the forest and cropland, while the area of forest is relatively stable. (2) The net CO2 equivalent emissions from land use changes in Hunan Province shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing with an initially fast and then slowed growth rate. Built-up land is the main carbon source, and its CO2 equivalent emissions increased by 26.78 million tons, while the forest is the main carbon sink, and its carbon absorption decreased by 4.11 × 104 tons. (3) The carbon sink areas are mainly located in Zhangjiajie and Xiangxi in western Hunan, and the CO2 equivalent emission intensity of other carbon source areas is gradually increasing from eastern Hunan to southern Hunan. (4) The carbon compensation value is very similar to the spatial distribution of CO2 equivalent emissions in different cities. The high carbon compensation areas are mainly Yueyang, Loudi, and Xiangtan due to their backward energy structure, un-upgraded industrial structure, and large net CO2 equivalent emissions, while the high carbon compensation areas are mainly Changsha, due to its high economic development level, great technological progress, and small net CO2 equivalent emissions. To achieve regional coordination and low-carbon development, it is necessary to continually improve the carbon compensation mechanism and to build on carbon compensation to promote regional low-carbon coordinated development from a low-carbon level. Meanwhile, the government should rank and direct the transformation and development of different types of cities, to build a low-carbon land development model and achieve the goal of developing carbon neutrality.

Investigation of relationship between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and human activities in urban soils of China using machine learning methods

Clarifying the impact of human activities on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil can provide a scientific basis to reduce PAHs pollution and formulate control measures to manage soil PAHs pollution, which are important to reduce global warming and support China's implementation of carbon neutrality goals. Here, we characterize the PAHs in 1055 samples of urban soil collected in China from 2000 to 2020. The total concentration of PAHs ranged from 2.75 to 38,865 ng g−1. PAHs concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta (YangtzeD) and Pearl River Delta exhibited an inverted U-shaped curve over time, and PAHs concentrations in Beijing have decreased. Air pollution prevention policies and vehicle emission standards in these regions reduced PAHs in the soil. We measured PAHs in soils of 18 major cities in YangtzeD, representing a typical area. Total concentration of PAHs was 3.88–2153 ng g−1 in YangtzeD, with 40.5%, 36.3%, and 23.2% of PAHs coming from industry and transportation, coal combustion, and biomass combustion, respectively by Positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. To explore how human activities affect the PAH concentrations, we screened three machine learning models and selected SHapley Additive explanation-extreme gradient boosting (XGB-SHAP) as the best model. The results of XGB-SHAP (R2 = 0.64) show that the main human activities affecting PAHs were carbon emissions, population size, and economic development (MAS = 709.1) and industrial waste gas emissions (MAS = 577.1), and these were positively correlated with PAHs. Therefore, effective ways to reduce PAHs may largely rely on industrial co-control. With the prevention and control of air pollution, clean energy, and green and low-carbon development policies constantly being implemented, PAH concentrations will continue to be reduced in the future.

Current Implementation and Development Countermeasures of Green Energy in China’s Highway Transportation

The transportation industry is one of the largest consumers of fossil fuels and sources of carbon dioxide emission, with highway transportation accounting for more than 70% of the total. In order to promote efficient, clean, diversified, and intelligent use of energy, this study proposes an innovative application technology model for integrating highway transportation and energy to improve the utilization of clean energy and reduce the proportion of fossil energy and carbon emissions in highway transportation. This study addresses the current problems of green energy development in China’s highways, and combines green low-carbon development policies in international transportation with inspirations based on experience. Based on the principles of safety, efficiency, environmental friendliness, wisdom, and economy, this study systematically analyzes the current situation of green energy application in China’s highway transportation. It proposes one core objective, two major roles, and five major security systems of development measures for green energy application China’s highway transportation with the aim of promoting the transformation and upgrade of China’s highway transportation industry. This study can also help to achieve green and low-carbon development of highway transportation and provides a decision-making reference for the ecological civilization construction goals of the industry.

The Relationship Between the Contents of Several Typical Environmental Testing Indexes in Industrial Enterprises

With the emphasis on ecological civilization construction and green and low-carbon development policy in our country in recent years, the environmental protection of industrial enterprises and the related work of emission permits had been carried out steadily, self-monitoring had gradually become an indispensable part of urban pollution prevention and control. However, in the actual testing process, the enterprise environmental management and environmental law enforcement officials often found that the content of some related factors conflict between test results and theory. In order to solve the problem that the results of some relevant environmental monitoring indexes were contrary to the expectation, the relationship between the contents of some typical environmental monitoring indexes, including VOCs and NMHC, NMHC and benzene series, TN and NH₄⁺-N, COD and BOD, was discussed according to the definition of relevant standards, the reason of the change of the relationship between the content of each index was analyzed from the angles of detection method, calculation method and determination range, and the future development direction of environmental testing was prospected, which could be used as a reference for the prevention and control of waste water and air pollutants in industrial enterprises and for the relevant environmental law enforcers, managers and testers.

The impact of digital transformation on low-carbon development of manufacturing

Objective: To measure the low-carbon development level and digital transformation degree of China’s manufacturing industry, and to examine the impact of digital transformation on low-carbon development.Methods: This paper uses Super Slack Based Measure (SBM) model and multi-regional input-output model to measure the low-carbon development level and digital transformation degree of 17 manufacturing industries in 30 provinces of China from 2012 to 2018, and uses high-dimensional fixed effect model and mediation model to study the impact of digital transformation on low-carbon development.Results: 1) During the study period, China’s manufacturing industry showed an upward trend in terms of low-carbon development level and digital transformation, but there were significant regional and industrial disparities. 2) Digital transformation can significantly promote the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry, which is still valid in the robustness test. 3) For sub-indicators, digital industrialization has the most obvious effect on the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry, and the improvement of digital development environment also has a positive impact on low-carbon development. 4) The heterogeneity analysis indicate that digital transformation has a greater impact on promoting low-carbon development of manufacturing in underdeveloped regions, and the positive effect is obvious in medium-low-energy-consuming industries, but not in high-energy-consuming industries. 5) The mechanism test shows that technological innovation is a channel for digital transformation to promote low-carbon development.Value: This paper provides empirical evidence for the environmental impact of digital transformation, and offers a scientific basis for relevant departments to formulate low-carbon development policies from the perspective of digital transformation.

Место систем торговли квотами на выбросы в современном инструментарии политики низкоуглеродного развития

At the 2021 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Glasgow, many leading economies have cemented the intention of achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century (2050-2070). However, the geopolitical and economic crisis of 2022 threatens to reduce the priority of decarbonization policy and postpone the introduction of more restrictive measures. In the face of growing constraints, the choice of climate policy instruments becomes even more complex and important. It is necessary to analyze different options from the low-carbon development policy toolkit, to understand their strengths and weaknesses, and their potential to be used to build a comprehensive policy. This article analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of emissions trading systems (ETS) as a tool for direct carbon pricing - a measure that experts from international organizations, as well as the academic community, believe is essential for achieving climate goals. Despite the fact that carbon taxes (the second option of direct pricing) is easier to implement and administer, many jurisdictions still opt for an ETS. Several factors influence the choice of ETS as a decarbonization tool: if optimally designed, a market-based mechanism provides cost-effective emission reductions, there is potential for linkage into a larger systems, the flexibility of the instrument can also provide additional benefits, China’s national ETS is a good example of exploiting the ETS’ flexibility. Political and administrative characteristics (EU, Germany, UK, California), Kyoto, Brussels, and OECD effects (Mexico and other jurisdictions) play an important role in the choice in favour of ETS. The experience of complex and comprehensive low-carbon development strategies already being implemented shows that it is not necessary to place the ETS at the center, making it the cornerstone of policy. The role of ETS in the entire set of decarbonization measures can be central, supportive, or enabling. ETS can have different objectives and stimulate not only direct emission reductions, but also technological transformation, energy transition. For Russia as a federal state, conducting pilot projects with different instruments of carbon pricing implemented in different regions seems to be the best solution for the near future and finding the right instruments for the Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Development Strategy.

A data-driven approach to objective evaluation of urban low carbon development performance

An effective evaluation of a city's low carbon development plays an essential role in promoting low carbon development strategies for achieving the city's sustainable development. This paper proposes a data-driven approach to objectively evaluating the low carbon development level of cities. The approach formulates the low carbon development evaluation problem as a multi-criteria decision analysis problem and incorporates the merits of bibliometric analysis, text mining and optimal weighting to evaluating the urban low carbon development performance. The bibliometric analysis is applied to systematically identify evaluation criteria and associated indicators and establish an evaluation system for measuring low carbon development levels of urban cities. Equipped with an objective weighting method based on text mining, the approach determines the local weights of the evaluation criteria and indicators for each city by extracting subjective preferential information from the policy documents available on the local government's websites. Two optimal weighting models are developed to determine the optimal global weights of the indicators and criteria by maximizing the low carbon development performance of all cities. The obtained criteria weighting thus can reflect both the preferences of local city governments and the best common interest of all cities involved in the evaluation. The approach is then illustrated with a case study on three cities involved in urban agglomeration planning in China. The results compare the low carbon development performance of the cities, identify the disparities between the cities and reveal each city's obstacle factors that hinder its development. Policy recommendations are then suggested for developing effective low carbon development policies.

Recent advances in carbon footprint studies of urban ecosystems: overview, application, and future challenges

Urban ecosystems are complex systems with anthropogenic features that generate considerable CO2 emissions, which contributes to global climate change. Quantitative estimates of the carbon footprint of urban ecosystems are crucial for developing low-carbon development policies to mitigate climate change. Herein, we reviewed more than 195 urban carbon footprint and carbon footprint related studies, collated the recent progress in carbon footprint calculation methods and research applications of the urban ecosystem carbon footprint, analyzed the research applications of the carbon footprint of different cities, and focused on the need to study the urban ecosystem carbon footprint from a holistic perspective. Specifically, we aimed to: (i) compare the strengths and weaknesses of five existing carbon footprint calculation methods [life cycle assessment, input–output analysis, hybrid life cycle assessment, carbon footprint calculator, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)]; (ii) analyze the status of current research on the carbon footprint of different urban subregions based on different features; and (iii) highlight new methods and areas of research on the carbon footprint of future urban ecosystems. Not all carbon footprint accounting methods are applicable to the carbon footprint determination of urban ecosystems; although the IPCC method is more widely used than the others, the hybrid life cycle assessment method is more accurate. With the emergence of new science and technology, quantitative methods to calculate the carbon footprint of urban ecosystems have evolved, becoming more accurate. Further development of new technologies, such as big data and artificial intelligence, to assess the carbon footprint of urban ecosystems is anticipated to help address the emerging challenges in urban ecosystem research effectively to achieve carbon neutrality and urban sustainability under global change.

Sub-national climate change risk assessment: A case analysis for Tibet and its prefecture-level cities

Avoiding climate change from exceeding its critical threshold is a serious challenge facing humanity at present and in the future. As the mode of global cooperative action is stranded, multi-center and multi-level efforts are needed to deal with global warming in the future. In order to provide information for the formulation of low-carbon development policies, it is essential to assess the maintain or cross of climate change threshold on different scales. In this study, the carbon footprint calculated based on the process coefficient approach is systematically integrated with the climate change indicator of the planetary boundaries framework improved with the goals of the Paris Agreement to identify the climate change risks of Tibet and its prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2017. Moreover, the main driving factors behind carbon footprint were analyzed. The findings showed that: (1) Since 2000, Tibet's CO2 emissions have demonstrated steady and rapid increase. The sector composition is dominated by cement production-related and transportation sector-related emissions. The type composition is dominated by diesel-related, process-related, and coal-related emissions. There are significant differences in CO2 emissions among all prefecture-level cities, with Lhasa having the largest contribution. (2) Except for Lhasa and Shannan's CO2 emissions that have crossed their critical threshold of climate change and are in an unsafe state, Tibet and other prefecture-level cities have not yet crossed their critical threshold. (3) Except for Ngari, per capita GDP, energy intensity, population size, and carbon intensity positively affect the increase of CO2 emissions in Tibet and its prefecture-level cities. Our study helps actors at less aggregated scales to determine appropriate policy strengths based on globally agreed goals and ambitions in the process of responding to global warming in a bottom-up manner.

A techno-economic and environmental assessment of low-carbon development policies in Iran's thermal power generation sector

A techno-economic and environmental assessment of low-carbon development policies in Iran's thermal power generation sector

An integrated approach to evaluating the coupling coordination degree between low-carbon development and air quality in Chinese cities

Collaborative governance between ecological environment and climate change is a novel signature in China's policy agenda. However, such coordination remains understudied, especially at the local level. Using the principal component analysis, entropy evaluation methods, and the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM), we evaluated the level of coordination between carbon and air quality mitigation from 34 low-carbon pilot cities in China. We also illustrated the mechanism and policy formation that leads to different coupling patterns at the local level using three case studies. We found that most pilot cities perform a medium level of coupling coordination between low carbon development and air quality. The result reveals that most low-carbon pilot cities score relatively well in low-carbon development. Further, there is a significant cleavage in air quality between cities in the North and those in the South, indicating pilot cities in the South coordinate better than those in the North. In particular, pilot programs in the Southwest and Southeast coastal region perform well in collaborative governance, while the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei region is rated poorly because of the gap between air quality and low carbon development. Also, we found that the same low-carbon policy might have heterogeneous effects on different air pollutants and across different regions. The local government should adopt low-carbon development policies that address local level specific environmental and economic conditions to maximize their air pollution mitigation benefits.

The Impact of European Green Deal on Turkey's Iron and Steel Industry: Decomposition Analysis of Energy-Related Sectoral Emissions

The European Union has put forward a vision under the EU Green Deal’s name to take the lead in its priorities, fulfill the Agreement’s criteria, and subsequently accept the first EU climate law on March 5, 2020. The law framework aims to impose tax obligations on consumption goods imported by the EU from abroad, especially on energy-intensive sectors, by applying the carbon border adjustment mechanism. Our main goal is to determine what kind of measures can be taken to ensure that the iron and steel industry is least affected by the EU border carbon regulation. We are an absolute exporter, are least affected by the EU carbon border adjustment. For this reason, the change in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions from the iron and steel industry from 1998 to 2018 was analyzed using the LMDI model to investigate the potential effects of carbon border adjustment in the iron and steel industry. The analyzes were made with five significant factors that determine the change of emissions. These factors are; changes in economic activity, activity mix, energy intensity, energy mix, and emission factors. Analysis has suggested that the economic activity effect has raised CO2 emissions. This method indicates that the energy intensity’s impact could be the first key determinant of GHG emissions. Turkey should attempt to implement low-carbon development policies and reduce energy-related emissions in the iron & steel sector are the least impacted by the EU’s carbon border adjustment.

Developing a low-carbon architecture pedagogy in Bangladesh

Architectural education and training can help ensure low-carbon emission for projects. Despite some broad initiatives to address this, there are still gaps in the curricula, theory and practices. The current pedagogical trends and approaches in Bangladesh are identified and examined for how climate mitigation is addressed in the architecture curriculum. This has revealed a lack of awareness, limited education and training, and inadequate pedagogical (i.e. teaching) approaches for low-carbon education in architecture curricula. A lack of alignment exists between curricula orientation and the national agenda for climate change and low-carbon development. In order to integrate a sustainable low-carbon education in the architecture pedagogy, a set of recommendations for pedagogical approaches, education and training framework is proposed to offer crucial guidance to academia and other relevant stakeholders. Practice relevance Bangladesh is acutely affected by climate vulnerability due to its geographical location in the Ganges Delta. Although mitigation and low-carbon development policies are part of the national agenda, this has not been incorporated into the additional capabilities required by architects to deliver this. Low-carbon design and sustainability issues in architectural curricula are still in the initial phases of development. A lack of awareness, inadequate education and training, and lack of alignment between curricula orientation and the national agenda are identified as important factors. A set of scalable solutions and recommendations for education and training for architectural students is suggested.

The Development of Wind Power Under the Low-Carbon Constraints of Thermal Power in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Thermal power has consumed a lot of coal, which causes serious air pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Previous studies on low-carbon development often separated the three regions, ignoring the coordinated development relationships in the regions. Under the low-carbon development constrictions of thermal power, this paper studied the development of wind power. Firstly, from the integration development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the changes in industrial structure and the total electricity consumption were predicted. Secondly, a comprehensive analysis of the low-carbon development policy for these regions, in accordance with the analytical results, controls the development of thermal power. Finally, a system dynamics model is used to analyse the wind power development from 2018 to 2025 under the influence of development on purchased electricity, the development of thermal and wind power policy. The study found that under the existing policies the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can achieve the goal of installed wind power capacity in the “13th Five-Year Plan for Electrical Power Development”. And from 2020 to 2025, the installed capacity of wind power significantly increases. Based on sensitivity analysis for wind power development, installed wind power capacity is the most sensitive to the wind power feed-in tariff, followed by thermal power generation capacity and then purchased electricity. To prevent wind power growing too fast, this paper suggests reducing the feed-in tariff of wind power during the “14th Five-Year Plan”.