Lower Average Growth Research Articles

The Relation Between Restriction Policies against Covid-19, Economic Growth and Mortality Rate in Society

How do mortality rate of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and economic growth of countries are affected by high restrictions and compulsory measures? This study confronts this question through a comparative analysis of countries that implement high and low level of restrictions against COVID-19 in order to understand whether high levels of restrictions are better at diminishing the adverse impacts of COVID-19 on public health and economies. The results of the study indicate that countries that implement high levels of restrictions are unable to reduce mortality per 1,000 people in comparison to those implementing little compulsory measures. Furthermore, that adopt high levels of restrictions exhibit a lower average growth of quarterly Gross Domestic Product than those with low levels of restrictions. The results obtained from this study can encourage countries to craft balanced and influential restriction policies to address COVID-19 and other pandemic crises of similar nature, which reduce mortality rates while safeguarding the socioeconomic systems.

Regenerator performance using freezing concentration for heat source tower heat pump system

Freeze concentration has a good regeneration effect and is easy for latent heat utilization. The electronic expansion valve opening has a great impact on the icing process. Hence, to investigate variations in the freezing process and gain the optimum regeneration effect, a solution regenerator was tested under different system-side control strategies. The solution volume flow was 5 m3/h and the electronic expansion valve opening degree (OEEV) was from 100% to 50%. For ice-covering growth, ice in low opening degree spent a long time to cover the plate. The area of ice under 100% to 65% OEEV was 1.43 times that under 50% OEEV. Peak velocities from 100% to 50% OEEV all appeared in the early stage of icing development. Moreover, the low opening degree made the ice distribute unevenness. The percentage slope of 100% OEEV was 1.23% and that of 50% OEEV was 3.46%. In addition, decreasing ice thickness uniformity was beneficial to the separation process. The separation ratio from 100% to 50% OEEV was 49.51%, 51.67%, 57.88%, and 74.54%, respectively. Both the low average thickness growth rate and high separation ratio were beneficial to increase the regeneration concentration. The effective specific ice production rate was from 100% to 50% OEEV was 5.99 kg/kWh, 6.18 kg/kWh, 6.94 kg/kWh, and 6.88 kg/kWh, respectively. Results showed that 65% OEEV operation was optimum for the solution regenerator unit using freeze concentration.

Slagging Characteristics of a Steam Boiler Furnace with Flare Combustion of Solid Fuel When Switching to Composite Slurry Fuel

Two interconnected mathematical models have been developed to describe slagging of a steam boiler furnace at the macro and micro levels. The macro-level model is implemented in Ansys Fluent. Using the fuel characteristics and temperature in the furnace, this model can predict the characteristics of ash formation on heat exchanger tubes when the melting temperature of the mineral part of solid fossil fuel is exceeded. The obtained values of slagging rates are used as initial data in the software implementation of the original Matlab microlevel model. Under conditions of dynamic change in the thickness of the slag layer, this model can evaluate the heat transfer characteristics in the hot gas/slag layer/tube wall/water coolant system. The results showed that switching a coal-fired boiler from a solid fossil fuel to a fuel slurry will improve stability and uninterrupted boiler operation due to a lower slagging rate. The combustion of coal water slurries with petrochemicals compared with coal–water fuel is characterized by higher maximum temperatures in the furnace (13–38% higher) and a lower average growth rate of slag deposits (5% lower), which reduces losses during heat transfer from flue gases to water coolant by 2%.

Rapid adaptation of Brachionus dorcas (Rotifera) to tetracycline antibiotic stress.

Although natural populations can rapidly adapt to selection pressures, the fitness consequences of selection are controversial. In this study, a selection experiment was conducted with replicate populations of Brachionus dorcas that were exposed to two sublethal concentrations (26.8 and 78.3mg/L) of oxytetracycline (OTC), followed by two common garden experiments (population growth and life table experiments). During the 102-day (approximately 36 asexual generations) selection experiment, a markedly increased growth rate but a significantly decreased mictic ratio over time in the populations exposed to OTC when compared to the control populations suggested that the former adapted to the selection pressures and that a trade-off exists between asexual and sexual reproduction. The high and stable population growth rates after 90 days of OTC selection illustrate an example of evolutionary rescue. After 102 days of selection, OTC-selected populations showed higher population growth rates than the control populations when exposed to OTC, indicating significantly increased tolerance. OTC-selected populations showed a lower average growth rate, longer average generation time and life expectancy at hatching, and higher average net reproduction rate and proportion of mictic offspring than the control populations in the absence of OTC, which indicate that OTC selection results in two fitness costs and three fitness gains and that the effect of OTC selection on fitness differs with the measured fitness variables. Both the evolutionary potential of populations under the stress of higher concentrations of OTC and the fitness costs and gains of selection in the absence of OTC indicate that past exposures to pollutants cannot be neglected when evaluating the effects of current stressors on natural populations.

Inequality, Labour Markets, Economic Development and the Impact of Migration on Poverty, Patterns and Employment Dynamics in India - A Macroeconomic Development Viewpoint

The Indian economy has experienced a transformation from a mixed-plan economy to an emergent middle-income social market economy with strong state intervention in major industries. India has experienced very low average growth rates and significant annual swings since gaining its independence in 1947. The growth rate of India was marginally greater in the 1990s than in earlier decades, and it has since increased. Together with China, its expansion is the key engine powering the continuous expansion of the world economy. Its previous enormous boom contrasts sharply with its current modest growth of 8%. Growth rates and per capita income disparities are much higher in developing countries than in the global average. Low employment growth and the subcontracting of labour to unorganised industries are the causes of the significant decline in the share of workers in the organised sector. This type of employment growth has a small but comparatively significant impact on lowering rural poverty. This research is descriptive and has theoretical foundations. The analysis of theories and points of view in this study is organized. The compilation of secondary data involves using a variety of reports, both published and unpublished. This research article's overall goal is to assess the theoretical aspects of inequality, labour markets, economic development, and the impact of migration on poverty, patterns, and employment dynamics in India from the perspective of macroeconomic development in order to foster human growth in the context of a globalised economy. The research article raises a significant, urgent, and contemporary subject that is relevant from a social, political, and economic point of view.

Energy efficiency improvements and industry transition: An analysis of China's electricity consumption

Limited empirical evidence exists on the role of electricity intensity of residential income and disposable income in China's electricity consumption. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to the variation in the growth rate of electricity consumption. We develop a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model to examine factors that affect electricity consumption and whether there are structural changes impacting electricity consumption. The drivers of slowing electricity consumption in China between 2007 and 2019 are quantified. We find that China's electricity consumption is closely associated with economic growth during the current New Normal period 2013–2019. Decelerated electricity consumption rate is linked to adjustments in industrial structure and a decline in energy intensity. Decreasing the electricity intensity of residential income also contributed to the decelerated rate. In 2014 there was a clear structural break in the growth rate of China's electricity consumption. We conclude that the decline in the electricity consumption growth rate is structural, and the low average annual growth rate will be sustained if nascent energy efficiency improvements and industry transition continue. Therefore, both electricity consumption and its influencing factors should be monitored continuously. Policies should be aimed at promoting energy efficiency and optimizing industrial structure.

Competitiveness in the Serbian growth strategy

AbstractThe paper focuses on the effects of the reformed growth strategy on the competitiveness of the Serbian manufacturing industry during the period of 2007–2016. The paper applies the analytical tools devised by the International Trade Centre, as well as Balassa's RCA Index and some other methodologies. All indicators point to similar conclusion: the reformed growth model would significantly contribute to the improvement of Serbian competitiveness. The starting point of Serbia is also clear: small gross investment volume and a low average growth rate.

СУЧАСНИЙ СТАН ТА ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ РОЗВИТКУ АГРОПРОМИСЛОВОГО КОМПЛЕКСУ УКРАЇНИ

The purpose of the article is to analyze the current state of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, identify development trends and assess the crop and livestock industry, study the commodity structure of foreign trade, develop a mechanism for the development of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine in the future. The agro-industrial complex of Ukraine is an important industry, which, in turn, is a set of several interrelated industries aimed at processing raw materials and production of agricultural products. Analysis of crop development indicators from 2014 to 2020 showed that the industry is gradually but steadily developing despite, after the start of quarantine, the introduction of strict restrictions, which were unfavorable not only for market participants but also for the state budget, because agricultural exports annually brings about 40% of all foreign exchange earnings to the country. The analysis of livestock development indicators showed that from 2014 to 2020 there was a sharp decline in the number of farm animals, production of basic products other than meat (in slaughter weight) also decreased in all respects for both milk and eggs. In terms of volume, milk production has reached an all-time low. With a lack of money and a reduction in livestock, there is a very low average annual growth rate of production - for 10 years at 0.4%. The main problems of the decline of the livestock industry are: imbalance in the development of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, ie the pace of development of livestock lags behind crop production; low level of commodity production and low investment attractiveness; insufficient level of consumption due to lack of money of the population; lack of finances and state support for the implementation of innovations and new technologies; lack of investment in fixed and current assets, as well as in breeding and genetic resources; high level of costs and labor intensity; long production cycle. The mechanism of development of agro-industrial complex of Ukraine according to the model "Common agro-industrial policy" with the support of the state, ie state partnership is offered. products at affordable prices, organization of producers' incomes, development of small and medium business, social and economic stability, etc.

Characterising the Bushe-Poladpur Contact across the Western Deccan Traps and Implications for Mapping the K-Pg Boundary?

Abstract The Bushe-Poladpur contact is one of the most important stratigraphic boundary separating the middle Lonavala Sub-group from upper Wai Sub-group in the Western Deccan Traps. In this paper, physical volcanology textural and petrochemical finger printing, crystal size distribution and shape preferred orientation studies (SPO) is integrated with paleomagnetic and AMS studies to correlate lavas across five localities transcending the Bushe-Poladpur boundary, south of Pune city. The flows belonging to the Bushe Formation are highly inflated, compound pahoehoe lavas, with plagioclase-olivine-phyric, coarse grained diktytaxitic textures. The flows belonging to the Poladpur Formation are transitional between pahoehoe and aa (rubbly pahoehoe lavas), with or without multi-tiered entablature showing fine-grained, olivine-phyric glassy textures. CSD studies indicate that the Bushe lavas have lower plagioclase crystals per unit area (1.11x10-4/μm2), low average effective nucleation rates (2.60x 10-12/μm3s) and high average effective growth rates (1.22x10-5μm2/s) for intact crust time than the Poladpur lavas that have higher plagioclase crystals per unit area (8.31x10-4/μm2), high average effective nucleation rates (3.46x10-11/μm3s) and lower average effective growth rates (2.24x10-6μm2/s) akin to their emplacement dynamics and cooling histories. There is a stark contrast in the magnetic susceptibilities (Bushe- 24759.8 x 10-6 SI; Poladpur-29178.02 x10-6 SI) across the Bushe-Poladpur contact. There is a general similarity between the SPO of the primary silicates (plagioclase) to the AMS derived directions. The divergence in AMS directions across the Bushe-Poladpur contact in the study area can be attributed to complex interplay of local paleotopography and slope, lava flow field dynamics, inflation and inversion of topography, style and emplacement mechanism of flow units. Generalisations and over simplifications of delineating lavas and deciphering their flow direction on a single criteria (tool) or single ghat (road section), outcrop or sample will have disastrous consequences while mapping large and complex lava flow fields. Thus, a multi-disciplinary approach needs to be the norm for characterising, correlating and mapping lavas across formations that transcend the K-Pg boundary in highly dissected ancient continental flood basalt province like the Deccan Traps.

Risk-sensitive foraging does not explain condition-dependent choices in settling reef fish larvae.

The transition from the planktonic larval to the benthic adult stage in reef fishes is perilous, and involves decisions about habitat selection and group membership. These decisions are consequential because they are essentially permanent (many fish rarely leave their initial settlement habitat, at least for the first several days or weeks). In one common Caribbean reef fish, the bluehead wrasse (Thalassoma bifasciatum), settling larvae either join groups or remain solitary. Grouped fish have lower mortality rates but slightly slower growth rates, and fish that are smaller at the time of settlement are less likely to join groups. We hypothesized that the decision of smaller (i.e., lower condition) fish to remain solitary could be explained by risk-sensitive foraging: with less competition, solitary fish may have higher variance in foraging success, so that there is a chance of a high payoff (outweighing the increased mortality risk) despite the lack of a large difference in the average outcome. We tested this by comparing the mean, standard deviation, and maximum number of (a) prey items in stomach contents and (b) post-settlement growth rates (from otolith measurements) of solitary and grouped fish during two settlement pulses on St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. However, we did not find evidence to support our hypothesis, nor any evidence to support the earlier finding that fish in groups have lower average growth rates. Thus we must consider alternative explanations for the tendency of smaller fish to remain solitary, such as the likely costs of searching for and joining groups at the time of settlement. This study reinforces the value of larval and juvenile fish as a testbed for behavioral decisionmaking, because their recent growth history is recorded in their otoliths.

A system for dating long wave phases in economic development

Long wave chronologies are generally established by identifying phase periods associated with relatively higher and lower average growth rates in the world economy. However, the long recognition lag typical of the phase-growth approach prevents it from providing timely information about the present long wave phase period. In this paper, using world GDP growth rates data over the period 1871–2016, we develop a system for long wave phases dating, based on the systematic timing relationship between cyclical representations in growth rates and in levels. The proposed methodology allows an objective periodization of long waves which is much more timely than that based on the phase-growth approach. We find a striking concordance of the established long waves chronology with the dating chronologies elaborated by long wave scholars using the phase-growth approach, both in terms of the number of high- and low-growth phases of the world economy and their approximate time of occurrence. In terms of the current long wave debate, our findings suggest that the upswing phase of the current fifth long wave is still ongoing, and thus the recent financial/economic crisis only marks a flattening in the current upswing phase of the world economy.

Growth kinetics in Candida spp.: Differences between species and potential impact on antifungal susceptibility testing as described by the EUCAST.

We studied the growth kinetic parameters of clinically relevant Candida species to verify the differences between species following the incubation and medium conditions recommended by the EUCAST. We analyzed 705 susceptible Candida spp. from patients with candidemia and Candida glabrata isolates resistant to echinocandins or fluconazole (n = 38) and calculated the average growth rate, maximum peak, time to maximum rate, and lag phase. We also examined inter- and intra-species differences, as well as the percentage of isolates reaching an optical density of 0.2 over time. Interspecies differences in growth phases and kinetic parameters were found. C. glabrata was the fastest growing species and the lag phase of C. parapsilosis was longer than that of the other species considered in this study. Strain-to-strain variations were found between species. A positive correlation between the average growth rate and maximum peak was determined. Echinocandin-resistant C. glabrata isolates had significantly lower average growth rate but higher time to maximum rate in comparison to wild-type C. glabrata isolates. Incubation periods of 12-15 hours allowed reaching the 0.2 optical density threshold in 100% of C. glabrata, C. tropicalis, and C. krusei isolates. We show differences in kinetic parameters between Candida spp. C. glabrata was the fastest growing species and C. parapsilosis showed the longest lag phase. Resistance to echinocandins may affect the growth kinetic curve. Speeding up antifungal susceptibility results could be possible for some isolates, particularly C. glabrata, C. tropicalis, and C. krusei.

Analysis of Russian firms’ TFP growth in 2009—2015

We study TFP growth in Russia in 2009—2015 using firm-level data. Our results reveal that the productivity gap between technology leaders and lagging firms accumulated over the observed period. Technology diffusion from leaders to less efficient firms in Russia stays rather limited resulting in relatively low average TFP growth. The market share of less efficient firms shrinks over time but they do not exit the market. As a result, scarce recourses stay locked in inefficient production.

Scientific justification of selection of plants for sanitary protection zones in arid region

Использование площадей санитарно-защитные зоны (СЗЗ) осуществляется с учетом ограничений, установленных действующим законодательством и настоящими нормами и правилами. До сих пор в засушливом регионе (Волгоградская обл.) на многих промпредприятиях практически отсутствует СЗЗ в плане озелененной территории. Ошибки в подборе ассортимента для таких насаждений приводят к неудовлетворительному состоянию существующих СЗЗ. На основе анализа санитарно-гигиенических и почвенно-климатических условий с учетом нормативных документов дано научное обоснование подбора ассортимента растений для СЗЗ на примере территории Гремячинского месторождения калийных солей (Котельниковский район, Волгоградская обл.). Облесенность лицензионного участка территории до проектирования СЗЗ составила около 2 %, землепользование приурочено к области Приволжской возвышенности и Ергеней. Юго-западная экспозиция участка отличается расчленением местности, балками и оврагами, что является основным фактором, создающим неоднородность почвенного покрова и состояния защитных лесонасаждений. Разработаны критерии подбора древесных, кустарниковых и травянистых растений с учетом почвенно-климатических условий, назначения и устойчивости их к вредным загрязнителям среды. Исследования и подбор проводили на основе коллекций ВНИАЛМИ (ныне ФНЦ агроэкологии РАН) и натурного обследования существующих насаждений на территориях планируемых объектов. Насаждения 35-летних культур Ulmus pumila на юго-восточной экспозиции (почвы каштановые карбонатные среднемощные) находятся в удовлетворительном состоянии. Низкий показатель среднего прироста с 20 лет. Анализ пробных площадей с участием Fraxinus lanceolata в возрасте 45 лет установил высокую сохранность. На основе существующих насаждений и региональных рекомендаций определены типы насаждений и разработан видовой состав деревьев, кустарников и газона (травянистого покрова) для СЗЗ на землях промышленного объекта в условиях засушливого климата. Подбор трав для газонного покрытия СЗЗ осуществлялся с доминированием плотнокустовых, хорошо прикрывающих и скрепляющих верхний слой почвы травостоев высотой 30-35 см. Рекомендуемые смеси и варианты для газонов СЗЗ дополнены стрежневыми видами травянистых растений. Установлено, что для повышения долговечности насаждений и усиления микроклиматической, ветро- и пылезащитной эффективности необходимо создавать смешанные многоярусные древесные насаждения с участием кустарников и травянистого покрытия и чередовать открытые (газонные) и закрытые (занятые посадками деревьев и кустарников) пространства (70% от всей территории). The use of sanitary protection zones (SPZ) is subject to the restrictions established by the current legislation and these rules and regulations. Until now, in the dry region (Volgograd region), many industrial enterprises have practically no SPZ in terms of green area. Errors in the selection of the range for such plantings lead to an unsatisfactory state of the existing SPZ. On the basis of the analysis of sanitary-hygienic and soil-climatic conditions taking into account normative documents the scientific substantiation of selection of the range of plants for SPZ on the example of the territory of gremyachinsky Deposit of potassium salts (Kotelnikovsky district, Volgograd region) is given. Forest square license area of the site to the design of the SPZ was about 2 %, land use is confined to the region of the Volga and the Yergeni hills. The South-Western exposition of the site is characterized by the dismemberment of the area, beams and ravines, which is the main factor that creates heterogeneity of the soil cover and the state of protective forest plantations. The criteria for selection of wood, shrub and herbaceous plants taking into account soil and climatic conditions, purpose and their resistance to harmful pollutants. Research and selection was carried out on the basis of collections VNIALMI (now Federal scientific center for Agroecology Russian Academy of Sciences) and a study of existing plantations in the areas of the planned facilities. The plantings of 35-year-old Ulmus pumila crops on the South-Eastern exposure (chestnut carbonate medium soils) are in satisfactory condition. Low average growth from 20 years. Analysis of the sample areas with Fraxinus lanceolata at the age of 45 years has established high safety. On the basis of the existing plantings and regional recommendations the types of plantings are defined and the specific structure of trees, bushes and a lawn (grassy cover) for SZZ on the lands of industrial facility in the conditions of arid climate is developed. Selection of grasses for lawns SPZ was carried out with the dominance plotnokustovye, well covering and fastening the top layer of soil, herbage height 30-35 cm Recommended mixtures and options for lawns SPZ supplemented with core species of herbaceous plants. It is established that for increase of durability of plantings and enhance micro-climate, windproof and dustproof efficiency it is necessary to create a mixed stacked wood plantings with participation of shrubs and herbaceous cover, and alternate the open (lawn) and closed (engaged in the planting of trees and shrubs) space (70% throughout).

Analysis of tree interactions in a mixed Mediterranean pine stand using competition indices

Studying species interactions in mixed forests allows us to assess their potential benefits and adapt current silvicultural tools developed in monospecific stands to multi-specific stands. We analyzed tree interactions in a Pinus halepensis Mill. and Pinus pinea L. mixed plantation using individual tree neighborhood models and competition indices that accounted for symmetric and asymmetric competition, to analyze whether the growth of each species was better explained by symmetric or asymmetric competition. We also split the competition indices into their intra- and interspecific forms, to test for competition effects on growth change based on competitor identity. Finally, we analyzed whether P. halepensis and P. pinea trees had different growth responses to competition. When calculating competition indices, we explored how spatial information and size of competitor trees contributed to the quantification of the process. Competition measurements were optimized to more precisely describe interactions. Results showed that the inclusion of competition indices generated important improvements in growth models. The main mode of competition was symmetric, which could be related to water restrictions typical of the Mediterranean climate. Considering competitor identity did not improve the growth models, while measurement without discriminating competitors by species generated more parsimonious models. P. halepensis and P. pinea trees had similar growth responses to competition, indicating that the two species cope with competition in similar ways. However, P. pinea showed lower average growth than P. halepensis in the period analyzed. Results suggest that preventing the onset of intense interspecific competition processes could help slow down the long-term replacement of P. pinea by P. halepensis and could have benefits for silvicultural management in systems with two species that share ecological niches but are capable of generating different goods and services.

Volatility and slow technology diffusion

I study the effects of uncertainty on technology adoption and thereby on volatility and growth. I present an analytically-tractable model in which: (i) uncertainty about the returns to adoption delays technology diffusion; and (ii) the mean and volatility of output growth are jointly determined in equilibrium. I then test the key predictions of the model by studying the introduction of three major information and communication technologies (ICTs)—computers, internet, and cell phones. I find that countries with more volatile growth rates of real GDP per capita have higher time adoption lags and lower average growth, as predicted by the model.

Volatility and Slow Technology Diffusion

I study the effects of uncertainty on technology adoption and thereby on volatility and growth. I present an analytically-tractable model in which: (i) uncertainty about the returns to adoption delays technology diffusion; and (ii) the mean and volatility of output growth are jointly determined in equilibrium. I then test the key predictions of the model by studying the introduction of three major information and communication technologies (ICTs) - computers, internet, and cell phones. I find that countries with more volatile growth rates of real GDP per capita have higher time adoption lags and lower average growth, as predicted by the model.

TEST THE EFFECT OF TEUCRIUM POLIUM L AND ZIZIPHUSSPINA CHRISTI (L) DESF LEAF EXTRACTS TO DISCOURAGE THE GROWTH OF SPECIES OF PLANT PATHOGEN

This study was impact test effectively alcohol extract of plant leaves the El gada (Teucrium polium) and seder (Ziziphusspina Christi) on Fusarium oxysporum isolated from the roots of tomato plants infected with wilt,and Botrytis cinerea isolated from infected bulbs, grey rot, The test also included a plant pathogenic bacteria are Erwinia cartovora isolated from infected bulbs, soft rot bac- terium Pseudomonas sp, isolated from Cucumber leaves infected with bacterial wilt disease. The results showed that concentrations of leaf alcohol extract CEDR effective on fungus F. oxysporum, with lower average growth used Center-Qatar plants extract alcohol concentration 2% after 7 days of incubation and growth-Qatar amounted to 6.6 cm , and is not affected by alcohol extract of leaves of El gada . While B.cinerea mushroom growth is not affected by both seder and seder extracts. It also found that alcoholic extract of leaves of Seder dampening bacteria isolated Pseudomonas sp and E.cartovora, while never giving El gada alcohol extract no inhibition effect against bacteria tested.

On the Output Effects of Monetary Variability

In this paper we provide an update regarding the effects of money growth variability on real economic activity in the United States using monthly data and the new CFS Divisia monetary aggregates, extending the work in Serletis and Shahmoradi (Macroecon Dyn 10:652–666 2006) and Serletis and Rahman (Open Econ Rev 20:607–630 2009, Macroecon Dyn 17:1638–1658 2013). We present evidence that increased uncertainty about the growth rate of the CFS Divisia M1, M2M, and M4+ monetary aggregates is associated with a lower average growth rate of real economic activity in the United States. We also argue that optimal monetary aggregation, as suggested over thirty years ago by Barnett (J Money Credit Bank 14:687–710 1982), will further improve our understanding of how money affects the economy.

Un modelo de simulación computacional integrado a SIG para explorar la dinámica de crecimiento de la Zona Metropolitana de la Ciudad de México (1998-2008) / A Computer Simulation Model Integrated into SIG to Explore the Dynamics of Growth of the Metropoli

En este trabajo se explora la dinámica de crecimiento económico de los municipios y delegaciones de la Zona Metropolitana de la Ciudad de México (ZMCM), mediante simulaciones de un modelo dinámico de contagio tipo Autómata Celular integrado a Sistemas de Información Geográfica. Los resultados del modelo indican que en condiciones de intensa interacción local de los municipios o delegaciones, la zmcm tiende a obtener una tasa de crecimiento promedio del PIB inferior a la que se ha observado en los últimos años. Además se muestra que la tasa de crecimiento en equilibrio de la ZMCM no se ve afectada por el carácter monocéntrico o policéntrico que pudiera presentar la metrópoli, pero sí por la cercanía o lejanía de los municipios o delegaciones con el centro o los subcentros económicos de la región. Finalmente, la investigación demuestra que es posible alcanzar tasas de crecimiento del PIB superiores a las observadas bajo ciertas condiciones de coordinación en la estructura urbana sin que necesariamente haya interacción global entre los municipios o delegaciones. AbstractThis paper explores the dynamics of economic growth in the municipalities and delegations of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City (MAMC) through simulations of a dynamic model of Cellular Automata contagion integrated into Geographic Information Systems. Model results indicate that under conditions of intense local interaction by municipalities and delegations, the MCMA tends to achieve a lower average growth rate of GDP than has been observed in recent years. They also show that the equilibrium growth rate of the MCMA is not affected by the monocentric or polycentric nature of the metropolis, but rather by the proximity or distance of the municipalities and delegations in regard to the center or economic sub-centers of the region. Lastly, the research shows that it is possible to achieve higher GDP growth rates than those observed under certain conditions of coordination in the urban structure without necessarily being global interaction between municipalities and delegations.