Lottery Task Research Articles

Visualizing numbers: Investigating the effect of presentation format on emotional responses and performance in lottery tasks.

Numeracy is the ability to understand, manipulate, and make sense of numerical information. It is crucial for everyday decision making that involves dealing with numbers. In this study, we tested whether we can help people make better choices in monetary lotteries by communicating numerical values (i.e., payoffs and probabilities) using visual aids. We also checked whether presenting this information in a visual form reduces affect negativity. Participants (N = 210) made choices in 10 monetary lotteries accompanied with visual aids (experimental condition) or without visual aids (control condition). After the lottery task, participants completed questionnaires measuring experienced emotions and numerical skills. Despite finding no hypothesized effect of visual aids on performance in a lottery task, the exploratory analysis revealed the interaction effect. In a visual aid condition, participants who were relatively less educated scored significantly higher in a lottery task in comparison to those in the control condition. Additionally, participants in the visual aid condition reported significantly lower intensity of negative emotions after the lottery task than those in the control condition. We discuss possible causes and mechanisms that can explain the results we obtained. We argue that visual aids are a promising tool for future learning, and their friendly format can positively influence people's reactions to decisions involving numerical information. However, we also point out the necessity for further research and exploration of the role of different designs of visual aids and individual differences. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Supplemental Material for Visualizing Numbers: Investigating the Effect of Presentation Format on Emotional Responses and Performance in Lottery Tasks

Supplemental Material for Visualizing Numbers: Investigating the Effect of Presentation Format on Emotional Responses and Performance in Lottery Tasks

An experiment on the link between risk preferences and the willingness to become a farmer

AbstractThis study investigates the link between risk preferences of agricultural students and their willingness to become a farmer. We conducted an incentivized experiment with 577 students of an agricultural university in Indonesia. Discriminating between alternative theories of decision‐making under risk, we find that students' risk preferences behave in accordance with cumulative prospect theory, but risk preferences are not predictive of students' willingness to become a farmer. Framing the experimental lottery task in either an agricultural or a general entrepreneurship context does not alter the predictive power for the willingness to become a farmer. Our results contribute to the debates on risk and farm generational renewal, as well as the (lack of) parallelism in behavioral field experiments.

Decision making and executive functions in problematic pornography use.

Previous research on cognitive functions in Compulsive Sexual Behavior Disorder (CSBD) and problematic pornography use (PPU) reported inconsistent findings and mostly included sexual pictures in the used tasks. The role of general executive functions and cognitive competences (without the presence of appetitive stimuli) in the context of PPU is largely unexplored. This study investigated differences between individuals with high versus low problem severity of PPU regarding decision making and executive functions. The sample of the laboratory study consisted of N = 102 male adults. Besides measures of trait impulsivity, we used standard neuropsychological tests (Trail Making Test and three-back working memory task) and an intertemporal risky choice paradigm, the Cards & Lottery Task (CLT). The results show heightened impulsivity (urgency and deficits in perseverance) in individuals with high PPU, but no differences regarding performance in the CLT and executive function tasks. The findings indicate that PPU might be associated with impulsive behavior when experiencing strong emotions (urgency) and deficient cognitive performance especially in the presence of sexual stimuli but not in general.

Is dishonesty normally distributed? Evidence from six behavioral experiments and a simulation study

How does dishonesty differ among individuals? Some studies using lottery tasks implied that people were more likely to be partially dishonest, whereas others suggested that most people were fully honest or fully dishonest. For a comprehensive investigation of the dishonesty distribution, Study 1 analyzed the data from six behavioral experiments (N = 2584) and found that dishonesty levels were not normally distributed in the general public, college students, or inmates, whether using lottery task or other tasks. Specifically, the distribution of dishonesty was positively skewed, most of the participants were fully honest. As the mean dishonesty level of the sample increased, the dishonesty distribution tended to change from an L-shape to a U-shape, except for the inverted U-shape in the lottery task. Simulation data (Study 2) suggested that the exception in the lottery task may result from the binomial distribution of the lotteries. The findings revealed that, unlike most traits, dishonesty levels were distributed in an L-shape or U-shape instead of a normal distribution across populations and tasks. We discussed the evolutionary adaptation of the polarization of dishonesty and offered methodological recommendations for future research on dishonesty.

A hypothetical lottery task to assess relative resource allocation toward alcohol and cannabis.

Relative spending on substances (vs. alternatives) is predictive of several substance use outcomes, but it can be challenging to assess. We examined a novel method of assessing relative resource allocation through the use of a hypothetical lottery task wherein participants assume they collected $100,000 United States dollars in lottery winnings and were tasked with allocating their winnings across spending categories (e.g., savings, leisure, alcohol, cannabis). We hypothesized relative allocation of funds toward alcohol and cannabis would be positively associated with more use and problems of each substance. College students (N = 479; Mage = 19.9 [SD = 2.2]) reported on their substance use and problems, alcohol and cannabis demand, and the hypothetical lottery task. Relative resource allocation toward alcohol and cannabis on the lottery task positively correlated with alcohol and cannabis demand indices (intensity, breakpoint, Omax, and elasticity [negatively]), respectively. Using zero-inflated modeling, greater relative allocation toward alcohol positively related to alcohol use and problems in models that controlled for alcohol demand indices. For cannabis, relative resource allocation was also positively associated with cannabis use, but not problems, independently from cannabis demand indices. Results provide initial support for the hypothetical lottery task as an indicator of relative resource allocation toward substances. Generally, these results extend previous behavioral economic research demonstrating the utility of relative resource allocation as a unique predictor of clinically relevant outcomes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Older adults process the probability of winning sooner but weigh it less during lottery decisions

Empirical evidence has shown that visually enhancing the saliency of reward probabilities can ease the cognitive demands of value comparisons and improve value-based decisions in old age. In the present study, we used a time-varying drift diffusion model that includes starting time parameters to better understand (1) how increasing the saliency of reward probabilities may affect the dynamics of value-based decision-making and (2) how these effects may interact with age. We examined choices made by younger and older adults in a mixed lottery choice task. On a subset of trials, we used a color-coding scheme to highlight the saliency of reward probabilities, which served as a decision-aid. The results showed that, in control trials, older adults started to consider probability relative to magnitude information sooner than younger adults, but that their evidence accumulation processes were less sensitive to reward probabilities than that of younger adults. This may indicate a noisier and more stochastic information accumulation process during value-based decisions in old age. The decision-aid increased the influence of probability information on evidence accumulation rates in both age groups, but did not alter the relative timing of accumulation for probability versus magnitude in either group.

On the stability of risk preferences: Measurement matters

We exploit the unique design of a repeated survey experiment among students in four countries to explore the stability of risk preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Relative to a baseline before the pandemic, we find that self-assessed willingness to take risks decreased while the willingness to take risks in an incentivized lottery task increased, for the same sample of respondents. These findings suggest domain specificity of preferences that is partly reflected in the different measures.

Curiosity or savouring? Information seeking is modulated by both uncertainty and valence.

Curiosity is pervasive in our everyday lives, but we know little about the factors that contribute to this drive. In the current study, we assessed whether curiosity about uncertain outcomes is modulated by the valence of the information, i.e. whether the information is good or bad news. Using a lottery task in which outcome uncertainty, expected value and outcome valence (gain versus loss) were manipulated independently, we found that curiosity is overall higher for gains compared with losses and that curiosity increased with increasing outcome uncertainty for both gains and losses. These effects of uncertainty and valence did not interact, indicating that the motivation to reduce uncertainty and the motivation to maximize positive information represent separate, independent drives.

Uncertainty increases curiosity, but decreases happiness

You probably know what kind of things you are curious about, but can you also explain what it feels like to be curious? Previous studies have demonstrated that we are particularly curious when uncertainty is high and when information provides us with a substantial update of what we know. It is unclear, however, whether this drive to seek information (curiosity) is appetitive or aversive. Curiosity might correspond to an appetitive drive elicited by the state of uncertainty, because we like that state, or rather it might correspond to an aversive drive to reduce the state of uncertainty, because we don’t like it. To investigate this, we obtained both subjective valence (happiness) and curiosity ratings from subjects who performed a lottery task that elicits uncertainty-dependent curiosity. We replicated a strong main effect of outcome uncertainty on curiosity: Curiosity increased with outcome uncertainty, irrespective of whether the outcome represented a monetary gain or loss. By contrast, happiness decreased with higher outcome uncertainty. This indicates that people were more curious, but less happy about lotteries with higher outcome uncertainty. These findings raise the hypothesis, to be tested in future work, that curiosity reflects an aversive drive to reduce the unpleasant state of uncertainty.

Self-control and financial risk taking

• Self-control plays a significant role in explaining financial risk-taking. • There is a negative link between self-control and financial risk taking. • Reflecting on self-control successes lowers financial risk-taking propensity. • Reflecting on self-control failures raises financial risk-taking propensity. We report two studies investigating the role of self-control in risky financial decision-making, operationalized as incentivized lottery task decisions. Study 1 ( N = 529) investigated the link between propensity to take financial risks and trait self-control. Study 2 ( N = 321) examined whether reflecting on one’s prior successes and failures in exercising self-control has an impact on subsequent risky financial decision-making. Study 1 identified a negative link between self-control and financial risk-taking, and Study 2 found that reflecting on self-control successes lowered people’s propensity to take financial risks, while reflecting on self-control failures made people more prone to take financial risks.

Irrigation Advisory Services: Farmers preferences and willingness to pay for innovation

Irrigation Advisory Services (IAS) are powerful management instruments aiming to achieve the best efficiency in irrigation water use. So far the literature on farmers’ preferences for a specific scheme design of IAS’ characteristics and the related willingness to pay (WTP) is scant. This study provides evidence on farmers’ preference towards six attributes related to the IAS configuration by using a hypothetical choice experiment. Data were collected from an original survey among 108 farmers from Spain, The Netherlands, Italy, Poland and South Africa. Moreover, we investigated the interplay between these preferences and the individual risk attitude (elicited through a lottery task) as a novel contribution. On average, the results suggest a clear farmers’ preference, especially for receiving weather forecasts from the service and for the feature related to water data recording; as the opposite, on average, crop water requirement seems irrelevant. Finally, we found that farmers’ WTP for the different IAS services varies across countries and, in some cases, also according to the individual risk attitude.

On the consistency of cognitive load

There are many ways to induce cognitive load. In this paper, we manipulate cognitive capacity using four common techniques: a number memorization task, a visual pattern task, an auditory recall task, and time pressure. Under each load manipulation (as well as under ‘no load’), every participant completes a series of math problems, lottery tasks, logic puzzles, and allocation decisions. We find similar behavioral responses across all techniques: poorer performance on the math problems and logic puzzles, more risk aversion in the lottery tasks, and no systematic impact on allocation decisions. Using within-subject variation, we show that individuals whose math performance is most impacted for a given load manipulation (number memorization), are the same individuals whose performance is most impacted by other load manipulation, and in the other tasks. We also find that participants who scored above the median in a cognitive reflection test (CRT), and are thus able to resist the first response that comes to mind, are greatly impacted when placed under cognitive load; those scoring below the median in the CRT are not impacted much.

Deficits in executive functions but not in decision making under risk in individuals with problematic social-network use

BackgroundThe tendency to strive for immediate gratification by neglecting potential negative long-term outcomes characterizes addictive behaviors, such as substance use or gaming disorder. Problematic social-network use is currently discussed as another potential addictive behavior, which is considered to result from an imbalance between affective and cognitive processes, indicated by traits such as increased impulsivity and/or decreased executive functions and decision-making abilities. MethodsThis study investigates the respective functions in social-network users by use of the Cards and Lottery Task (CLT) – a decision-making task under risk conditions in which options contain conflicting immediate and long-term outcomes at the same time. A sample of German and Spanish participants (N = 290) performed the CLT as well as the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST), Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS), the short Internet Addiction Test specified for social-networking (sIAT-SNS), and screeners on other potentially problematic behaviors. ResultsComparing extreme groups based on sIAT-SNS scores (1SD above/below mean), individuals with problematic social-network use (n = 56), as compared to those with non-problematic social-network use (n = 50), showed increased attentional impulsivity and reduced executive functions. No differences were observed in decision-making performance. ConclusionThe findings indicate that problematic social-network use is related to attentional rather than general decision-making deficits. Furthermore, problematic social-network use is likely to co-occur with other problematic Internet-use behaviors, particularly gaming or shopping.

Neural Population Dynamics Underlying Expected Value Computation.

Computation of expected values (i.e., probability × magnitude) seems to be a dynamic integrative process performed by the brain for efficient economic behavior. However, neural dynamics underlying this computation is largely unknown. Using lottery tasks in monkeys (Macaca mulatta, male; Macaca fuscata, female), we examined (1) whether four core reward-related brain regions detect and integrate probability and magnitude cued by numerical symbols and (2) whether these brain regions have distinct dynamics in the integrative process. Extraction of the mechanistic structure of neural population signals demonstrated that expected value signals simultaneously arose in the central orbitofrontal cortex (cOFC; medial part of area 13) and ventral striatum (VS). Moreover, these signals were incredibly stable compared with weak and/or fluctuating signals in the dorsal striatum and medial OFC. Temporal dynamics of these stable expected value signals were unambiguously distinct: sharp and gradual signal evolutions in the cOFC and VS, respectively. These intimate dynamics suggest that the cOFC and VS compute the expected values with unique time constants, as distinct, partially overlapping processes.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Our results differ from those of earlier studies suggesting that many reward-related regions in the brain signal probability and/or magnitude and provide a mechanistic structure for expected value computation employed in multiple neural populations. A central part of the orbitofrontal cortex (cOFC) and ventral striatum (VS) can simultaneously detect and integrate probability and magnitude into an expected value. Our empirical study on these neural population dynamics raises a possibility that the cOFC and VS cooperate on this computation with unique time constants as distinct, partially overlapping processes.

On the Stability of Risk Preferences: Measurement Matters

We exploit the unique design of a repeated survey experiment among students in four countries to explore the stability of risk preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Relative to a baseline before the pandemic, we find that self-assessed willingness to take risks decreased while the willingness to take risks in an incentivized lottery task increased, for the same sample of respondents. These findings suggest domain specificity of preferences that is partly reflected in the different measures.

Liking the long-shot … but just as a friend

I modify the skewed lottery task introduced by Grossman and Eckel (Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 51(3), 2015) to eliminate the effects of loss aversion as a potentially confounding explanation for the strong preference for skewed lotteries and increase in risk taking that they observe when skew increases. I also test for framing effects by reversing the order of the task. Like previous studies, a majority of subjects prefer skewed lotteries relative to those with no skew, but this preference is dampened when loss aversion is eliminated as a confound and the order of the task is reverse. More importantly, introducing skew is unlikely to cause an increase in risk taking in this task.

Job loss and health threatening events modulate risk-taking behaviours in the Covid-19 emergency

Covid-19 pandemic is exerting a tragic impact all around the world. First-person experience of life-threatening and stressful events can modify individuals’ risk perception, and, consequently, risk-taking behaviours. Here we investigated risk-taking profiles in 130 Italian residents, and compared healthcare to non-healthcare workers, during the lockdown phase. We ad hoc developed the “Covid-19 Risk Task”, including the classic monetary Holt-Laury Paired Lottery Task (Monetary Condition, MC) and two new ecological conditions exploring Covid-19 related risk-taking aptitudes in relation to different health (Health Status Condition, HsC) and employment (Employment Status Condition, EsC) outcomes. Results showed that, in the whole sample, individuals were more risk-averse in MC than in HsC and EsC. Moreover, a payoff increase produced a shift toward more risk-averse behaviours in MC, but not in HsC and EsC, where we found an opposite trend suggesting a more risk-loving behaviour. Finally, we found that healthcare workers were significantly less risk-averse compared to non-healthcare workers in EsC, but not in MC and HsC. These findings provided evidence of the possible effects of Covid-19 outbreak on risk-taking aptitudes. The negative impact on human choices and, consequently, on the whole world economy of this catastrophic life event must not be underestimated.

Gambling disorder is associated with reduced sensitivity to expected value during risky choice.

Background and aimsIndividuals with gambling disorder display increased levels of risk-taking, but it is not known if it is associated with an altered subjective valuation of gains and/or losses, perception of their probabilities, or integration of these sources of information into expected value.Methods Participants with gambling disorder ( n = 48) were compared with a healthy comparison group ( n = 35) on a two-choice lottery task that involved either gains-only or losses-only gambles. On each trial, two lotteries were displayed, showing the associated probability and magnitude of the possible outcome for each. On each trial, participants chose one of the two lotteries, and the outcome was revealed. ResultsChoice behaviour was highly sensitive to the expected value of the two gambles in both the gain and loss domains. This sensitivity to expected value was attenuated in the group with gambling disorder. The group with gambling disorder used both probability and magnitude information less, and this impairment was greater for probability information. By contrast, they used prior feedback (win vs loss) to inform their next choice, despite the independence of each trial. Within the gambling disorder group, problem gambling severity and trait gambling-related cognitions independently predicted reduced sensitivity to expected value. The majority of observed effects were consistent across both gain and loss domains.Discussion and ConclusionsOur results provide a thorough characterization of decision processes in gain and loss domains in gambling disorder, and place these problems in the context of theoretical constructs from behavioural economics.

Intransitivity and transitivity of preferences: Dimensional processing in decision making.

Transitive preference, that is, if you prefer apples to bananas and bananas to cherries, you also prefer apples to cherries, is a basic property of some influential rational choice models. Contrary to this, Tversky, in his seminal 1969 article, presented evidence of intransitive preferences in two contexts, one of which involved choices between simple monetary lotteries. While early replications corroborated his findings, more recent research cast doubt on the strength of evidence of intransitive preferences in this task. Here, from Tversky’s extended additive difference model we develop a simplified additive difference (SAD) model that corresponds to alternative dimensional processing strategies. This predicts transitive or intransitive preferences, depending on its parameter values. We review six replications of Tversky’s lottery task and fit variants of the model to the choice data. We estimate the SAD model’s parameters for each individual data set using maximum likelihood estimation, examine the goodness of fit of the model, and use likelihood ratio tests to evaluate specific variants. The model has a very good fit to most individual choice data sets reviewed, with many predictably violating weak stochastic transitivity. We also find that many transitive patterns correspond to the application of simple, one-dimensional “take the best” heuristics. The findings support the view that human decision making is often based on dimensional processing in such a way that evaluations of decision alternatives are relative to the set under consideration, resulting in intransitivity of preferences. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved)