Lottery Stocks Research Articles

Do retail investors gamble more during lockdown?

AbstractRetail investors are known to favor stocks with lottery‐like features and trade too much. Less is known about their intertemporal demand and risk‐taking behavior in lottery‐type stocks. We use intraday transaction data between September 2019 and June 2020 from the Stock Exchange of Thailand to test how individual's risk attitude changes with respect to decline in their wealth prospects during the COVID‐19 lockdown. The behavior of the investors supports a reference dependent preference. Confronted with lowered wealth prospects, retail investors substantially reduce their underweighting in nonlottery stocks while increasing overweighting and turnover frequency in lottery stocks resulting in deteriorating portfolio performance.

Lottery stocks in Brazil: investigating risk premium and investor behavior

PurposeThis study investigates the paradox of lotteries in financial markets, challenging traditional utility models predicated on rational behavior amid uncertainty. It explores why investors are drawn to lotteries despite the potential trade-off between risk-adjusted returns and sporadically substantial gains.Design/methodology/approachEmploying a multifaceted approach, the study first scrutinizes diverse theories elucidating the perplexing behavior of lottery investors. Subsequently, it assesses the premium attached to lottery stock shares in the Brazilian financial market using distinct methodologies, thereby offering a comprehensive analysis of this phenomenon. Finally, the study estimates the risk premium associated with the lottery stocks applying an extended Fama–French multifactor model and searching for evidence of overlap with other risk-based anomalies.FindingsThis research unveils theories underpinning seemingly irrational investor behavior vis-à-vis lotteries, revealing the motivations propelling investors to willingly exchange risk-adjusted returns for the allure of substantial but infrequent gains. Empirical evidence delineates the extent of the premium paid for lottery stocks in the Brazilian market.Originality/valueThe study’s novelty lies in its amalgamation of theoretical exploration, empirical analysis and the application of the Fama–French factor model to gauge the risk premium associated with lottery-related behavior. Furthermore, its investigation of lottery stocks within the Brazilian market introduces a distinctive dimension, elucidating market dynamics and investor behaviors unique to the region.

Do individual investors gamble to recoup losses?

ABSTRACT This study presents novel empirical insights into the speculative behaviours of individual investors within the stock market. Using detailed data on individual investors’ stock portfolios, we find that investors are more likely to invest in lottery stocks and to invest a larger proportion of their stock portfolio in lottery stocks after experiencing a large loss. These results are consistent with Thaler and Johnson’s (1990) experimental findings, showing that investors, when faced with losses, tend to increase their risk appetite, displaying a preference for investment options that present a perceived opportunity to recoup losses.

Lottery demand, weather and the cross-section of stock returns

We investigate the role that weather-induced mood plays in underperformance of lottery stocks. We hypothesize that during pleasant weather conditions, investors are more likely to become risk-taking and optimistic, and invest more in lottery stocks. This results in overpricing and lower expected return for these stocks. We use sky cloud cover as a proxy for the weather condition and show that the MAX effect mainly exists following sunny weather; however, there is less evidence for the MAX anomaly following cloudy weather. Our finding is robust to using alternative constructions of MAX and skewness measures as well as other proxies for weather condition such as rain, wind and temperature.

Lottery factor and stock returns: Evidence from India

This study examines important aspects of lottery behavior in India using data from December 2001 to March 2021. We experiment with a new measure of lottery along with well-established measures. Our lottery measure focusing on more recent information is found to be appropriate for India. MAX has a unique role in predicting returns that is not subsumed by other risk measures. We find MAX, skewness, tail risk, and idiosyncratic volatility as relevant characteristics of lottery stocks. Using these, we construct a lottery factor representing investors’ risk-seeking behavior. This behavior is an outcome of mis-weighing probability of extreme gains or losses and leads to overreaction to attention-catching events. We augment the Fama-French five-factor model with our lottery factor. Our six-factor behavioral asset pricing framework is found to be an appropriate performance benchmark. Lottery behavior is mainly the result of retail investor actions and is linked to several behavioral biases.

The Effect of Gambling Preference on Stock Volatility: From the Evidence of Looser Price Limits Regulation

ABSTRACT This article explores the intricate relationship between gambling preferences and stock market dynamics, with a focus on the repercussions of a more lenient price limit regulation. Specifically, we examine the effects of expanding the price limit range from 10% to 20% for stocks listed on the second board market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology for causal inference, our research reveals a notable surge in price volatility, particularly evident among lottery stocks. To validate these findings, we employ various statistical techniques, including propensity score matching tests, parallel trend hypothesis tests, placebo tests, and alternative volatility measurements. Our study unveils that looser price limits contribute to heightened stock price volatility through two primary channels: the inherent lottery characteristics of certain stocks and the increased attention from retail investors. Moreover, we identify that the amplified volatility is more pronounced within non-state-owned enterprises and small-cap entities. In summary, our results indicate that price limits play a crucial role in stabilizing emerging stock markets by mitigating the gambling tendencies of retail investors. This research sheds light on the positive aspects of price limits regulation, offering valuable insights for market policymakers and participants alike.

Lottery stocks in the UK: evidence, characteristics and cause

Lottery stocks in the UK: evidence, characteristics and cause

Property crime and lottery-related anomalies

In this paper, we explore the association between property crime rate and lottery demand anomalies. Motivated by criminology literature that suggests a positive relation between crime and risk-taking, we conjecture that gambling propensity in the stock market is stronger (weaker) in regions with higher (lower) property crime rate. Consistent with our conjecture, we show that underperformance of lottery stocks, proxied by MAX, is more pronounced in the US regions with higher property crime rates compared to regions with lower property crime rates. Our results are robust to alternative proxies for lottery demand, such as alternative constructions of MAX and skewness measures, and various empirical tests. Our findings suggest variation in crime-induced gambling propensity affects financial market outcomes.

Relationship between Extreme Idiosyncratic Returns and Expected Returns in the Korean Stock Market

This study estimates IMAX and IMIN to measure lottery and hazard stocks, and investigates how investors’ reactions to these extreme returns affect the cross-section of stock returns. We show that IMAX is negatively related to future returns and measures lottery stocks. Furthermore, we show that IMIN also has a negative relationship with future returns, contrary to theory, suggesting the existence of the IMIN anomaly in the Korean stock market. IMIN anomaly, which is caused by investors’ under-reaction to hazard stocks, is significant even after controlling various variables explaining the cross-sectional characteristics of stocks, and lasts for at least 24 months. Moreover, we show that the IMIN anomaly exists significantly even after controlling factors related to investors’ under-reaction, such as investor attention, information uncertainty, and limits to arbitrage. However, IMIN anomaly weakens as the stock market demonstrates more efficiency and transparency.

The role of anchoring on investors’ gambling preference: Evidence from China

This paper examines the anchoring effect of 52-week high price on the investors’ gambling preference in the Chinese A-share market. We document the gambling preference only exists among stocks valued much lower than their 52-week high prices. Specifically, using return skewness as a proxy for lottery stocks, we find that buying stocks in the lowest skewness quintile and selling the highest earns a significant risk-adjusted return of 0.85% per month for stocks far below their 52-week high prices. By contrast, it earns an insignificant return of 0.04% per month for stocks close to their 52-week high prices. Moreover, high arbitrage risk and investor sentiment strengthen the effect of anchoring on gambling preference. Our findings are robust after considering the effects of capital gains overhang, under-reaction to news, firm’s ownership status, and China’s non-tradable share reform.

Lottery preference, short-sale constraint, and the salience effect: Evidence from China

This paper documents the significant and robust salience theory (ST) effect in China, which differs from the findings in the literature. First, the upside-ST effect from stocks with salient upsides is stronger than the downside-ST effect from stocks with salient downsides; the opposite pattern is documented in the US market. We demonstrate that this pattern is due to strong lottery preference and short-sale constraint in China, where investors are prone to engage in salient thinking when they bet on lottery stocks; meanwhile, short-sale constraint prevents rational investors from correcting salience-induced mispricing. Second, the salience effect remains strong in big stocks and high institutional ownership stocks. Our findings are consistent with the existing evidence that fund managers cater to fund investors' lottery preferences to hold lottery stocks. Our study provides new insights into the sources of the salience effect in China, especially salience's interaction with investor behaviors and the market's institutional characteristics.

CEO overconfidence, lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns

Unlike existing studies that mostly focus on investors’ biased behavior in explaining the lottery-related anomaly, our study highlights the importance of CEO overconfidence for the anomaly. We propose that CEO overconfidence could enhance investors’ confidence in the stock's price even if the stock exhibits lottery-like payoffs. As a result, lottery stocks with overconfident CEOs are less prone to subsequent underperformance. Based on portfolio-based analyses and cross-sectional regressions, we provide robust evidence to confirm this hypothesis. Our study has important implications to the literature on both lottery-related anomaly and CEO overconfidence.

Lottery stocks in the UK: evidence, characteristics and cause

Lottery stocks in the UK: evidence, characteristics and cause

Lottery Stocks in Brazil: Investigating Risk Premium and Investor Behavior

Lottery Stocks in Brazil: Investigating Risk Premium and Investor Behavior

Are mutual fund managers good gamblers?

Lottery stocks have been shown to severely underperform on average. I find that from 1980 to 2016, while the average stock held by U.S. equity mutual fund managers outperforms those they do not hold by 3.8% per year, lottery stocks held by mutual funds outperform those they avoid by 24%. I find that a fund's loading on lottery stocks is a good predictor of future performance. Lottery stock loading is also correlated with various measures of fund manager skill. Investors can benefit from this information either to find skillful fund managers or to build a profitable copycat portfolio.

The impact of mobile device usage on lottery behavior: evidence from China

ABSTRACTThis paper examines how mobile device usage affect retail investors’ lottery behaviour. Using data from the Chinese stock market, which is dominated by retail investors, we observe a structural change in mobile investing trends in 2015. By employing a structural shift model, we find that higher mobile device usage in the market disproportionately increases the trading volume of lottery stocks and amplifies the lottery-related pricing anomaly. Our results suggest that the use of mobile devices increases retail investors’ demand for lottery stocks by attention-induced trading, but fail to find evidence that mobile devices influence retail investors’ inherent skewness preferences.

Lottery stocks and stop-loss rules

We show that stop-loss rules increase the returns to investment in stocks with lottery features. These stocks typically have sporadic big gains and frequent small losses. However, stop-loss rules can reduce losses and allow investors to receive the gains from large price increases. We also highlight that sell signals of popular technical rules resemble stop-loss rules and are effective at increasing risk-adjusted returns for lottery stock. These rules could have helped investors avoid losses from major historical drawdowns, are particularly beneficial in declining markets, and are robust to the inclusion of transaction costs.

Gambling with lottery stocks?

In this article, we assess whether German private investors gamble in the stock market. Other studies that have analyzed private investors’ preferences with regard to lottery-like characteristics have used retail or discount brokerage data. They have shown that stock trading has common entertainment features with traditional gambling. In particular, clients of discount brokers may invest for speculative purposes and thus have disproportional preferences for lottery-like characteristics. In consequence, assessing preferences by solely using a subset of investors—associated brokerage clients—may lead to substantially biased results. We assess this issue by using SHS-base data from Deutsche Bundesbank which captures the aggregate holdings of the German private sector. In line with the research, we find that German private investors overinvest in stocks with lottery-like features. Yet, when assessing the economic significance of the aggregate overinvestment, the effect is negligible. Further, we do not find consistent evidence of skewness that positively affects the aggregate holdings of the private sector. As studies have identified preferences for skewness as a driving force for retail investors’ stock purchases, our results challenge the preconceived notion of which characteristics actually induce (disproportional) private sector investments.

Firm Opacity and Retail Investments in Attention Stocks and Lottery Stocks: Evidence from Robinhood Investors

Firm Opacity and Retail Investments in Attention Stocks and Lottery Stocks: Evidence from Robinhood Investors

Do Gamblers Invest in Lottery Stocks?

Do Gamblers Invest in Lottery Stocks?