Loss Of Gross Domestic Product Research Articles

Effective prevention in clinical practice may save human capital loss: Real-world evidence from Taiwan's National Health Insurance

Background/PurposeEffective prevention could protect the health of the workforce, save human capital loss, and maintain employee productivity as well as economic growth. MethodsUsing real-world data of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and lung cancer, we multiplied their lifetime survival functions with employment ratios and working salaries to estimate the lifetime employment durations and earnings. They were compared with corresponding age-, sex-, and calendar year-matched referents to assess the differences in loss of lifetime employment duration and earnings. From 2000 to 2017, 83,358 patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) were associated with 32–66% lifetime productivity losses. Similarly, we collected 24,904 incident cases of lung adenocarcinoma during 2011–2018 and estimated the potential savings in human capital due to early detection. Based on the evolving trends of ESKD incidence rates in Taiwan, we calculated the lifetime human capital losses of ESKD patients in GDP (gross domestic product) percentages during 2000–2020. ResultsThe aggregate lifetime productivity losses of ESKD in terms of GDP% varied between 0.000398% and 0.01% for male patients and between 0.0001% and 0.009% for female patients. The younger the patients, the bigger the losses in GDP%. Similarly, early detection of lung adenocarcinoma saved lives and productivity to some extent. ConclusionsSuccessful prevention of catastrophic illnesses at early stages would save the lifetime employment duration and productivity of the workforce. Future reform on the NHI could consider closer coordination between public health and healthcare organizations, focusing on effective prevention of diseases and complications to save productivity loss.

The public health and economic burden of long COVID in Australia, 2022-24: a modelling study.

To estimate the number of people in Australia with long COVID by age group, and the associated medium term productivity and economic losses. Modelling study: a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to estimate the number of people with long COVID over time following single infections, and a labour supply model to estimate productivity losses as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). Australia, 2022-2024. Estimated number of people infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during 2022-2023 (based on serosurvey data) who have longCOVID, 2022-2024, by age group; estimated GDP loss during 2022 caused by reduced labour supply attributable to long COVID. Our model projected that the number of people with long COVID following a single infection in 2022 would peak in September 2022, when 310 341-1 374 805 people (1.2-5.4% of Australians) would have symptoms of long COVID, declining to 172 530-872 799 people (0.7-3.4%) in December 2024, including 7902-30 002 children aged 0-4 years (0.6-2.2%). The estimated mean labour loss attributable to long COVID in 2022 was projected to be 102.4million (95% confidence interval [CI], 50.4-162.2 million) worked hours, equivalent to 0.48% (95% CI, 0.24-0.76%) of total worked hours in Australia during the 2020-21 financial year. The estimated mean GDP loss caused by the projected decline in labour supply and reduced use of other production factors was $9.6 billion (95% CI, $4.7-15.2 billion), or 0.5% of GDP. The estimated labour loss was greatest for people aged 30-39 years (27.5 million [95% CI, 16.0-41.0 million] hours; 26.9% of total labour loss) and people aged 40-49 years (24.5 million [95% CI, 12.1-38.7 million] hours; 23.9% of total labour loss). Widespread SARS-CoV-2 infections in Australia mean that even a small proportion of infected people developing long COVID-related illness and disability could have important population health and economic effects. A paradigm shift is needed, from a sole focus on the immediate effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to preventing and treating COVID-19 and treating long COVID, with implications for vaccine and antiviral policy and other mitigation of COVID-19.

Economic analysis of the use of holmium enucleation of the prostate and laparoscopic simple prostatectomy in the surgical treatment of large-volume prostatic hyperplasia

Introduction. The method of choice for surgical treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) with a volume of more than 80 сс is holmium enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP). However, laser enucleation of the prostate is associated with limitations that carry both a clinical and financial burden. Laparoscopic simple prostatectomy (LSP) has now emerged as an alternative to transurethral procedures. In addition to ensuring clinical efficacy, optimal approaches to surgical management of large-volume BPH must also be financially viable, which underlines the significance of this study.Objective. To conduct a comparative economic analysis of holmium laser enucleation of the prostate and laparoscopic retropubic simple prostatectomy combined with temporary clamping of the internal iliac arteries and vesicourethral anastomosis (LSP + TCA + VUA).Materials & methods. An economic analysis of the results of HoLEP (214 people) and LSP + TCA + VUA (215 people) was conducted in a multicenter, open-label study. The economic analysis aimed to calculate the direct costs associated with surgery, as well as indirect costs related to hospitalization. A comparative analysis of drug prescriptions was conducted, including an assessment of costs for conservative treatment during hospitalization and the postoperative period. The economic losses associated with the duration of patients' temporary disability were calculated as the total loss in gross domestic product (GDP) production.Results. The cost of basic surgical equipment was 15,701,000.0 and 36,927,827.0 rubles (₽) for LSP + TCA + VUA and HoLEP, respectively. The median direct costs for performing LSP + TCA + VUA and laser enucleation HoLEP was 54,990.6 [49,870.5; 67,850.8] and 69,158.9 [65,005.9; 72,351.7] ₽, respectively. The median of indirect costs in the LSP + TCA + VUA and HoLEP groups was 71,251.0 [68,039.0; 73,103.0] and 80,451.0 [74,423.0; 83,501.0] ₽, respectively. The indicators of lost profits in GDP production per person were 5,398.4 and 6,167.9 ₽ in the LSP + TCA + VUA and HoLEP groups, respectively.Conclusion. The rationale for the use of LPA + VPA + UCA in the surgical treatment of large-volume BPH is based on economically justified advantages compared with HoLEP.

КЛИНИКО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТЬ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ ФОТОДИНАМИЧЕСКОЙ ТЕРАПИИ В ЛЕЧЕНИИ ПАЦИЕНТОВ С ФЛЕГМОНАМИ ЧЕЛЮСТНО-ЛИЦЕВОЙ ОБЛАСТИ И ШЕИ

Background. Treatment of patients with phlegmon of the maxillofacial area is an urgent problem in modern maxillofacial surgery. Objective. To conduct a clinical and economic evaluation of the local photodynamic therapy (PDT) effectiveness during the postoperative period in comparison with traditional treatment in patients with phlegmon of the maxillofacial area and neck. Material and methods. Clinical and economic features of treatment of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of “Phlegmon of the maxillofacial area and neck” (ICD-10: L03.2) with local use of PDT were studied and analyzed. Economic efficiency was evaluated based on the cost-effectiveness analysis. The economic effect of preventing direct damage (for inpatient treatment, payment of temporary disability benefits) as well as indirect damage (loss of gross domestic product) because of reduced hospital length of stay has been determined. Results. The advantage of a local application of PDT both from a clinical point of view (reducing the time for cleansing a wound from purulent-necrotic masses, relieving edema, resolving infiltrate, the appearance of granulations, reduced length of inpatient treatment) and from an economic point of view (the overall economic effect for the period of inpatient treatment of 1 patient with PDT was 3092.67 BYN) has been shown. Conclusion. The results demonstrate the clinical and economic feasibility of wider local use of PDT in the complex treatment of patients with phlegmon of the maxillofacial area and neck.

Could the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism promote climate mitigation? An economy-wide analysis

Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness, the European Union (EU) proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion. From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis, this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation. Furthermore, the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed. The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product (GDP) loss; however, the GDP loss in all other regions increases. Moreover, CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions, including the EU. Second, although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions, it comes at the cost of greater economic losses. Furthermore, the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM; therefore, CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited. Finally, for the potential alternative mechanism, from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses, the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.

An Improved CNN model for Identifying Tomato Leaf Diseases

A major loss in gross domestic product, quantity and quality of products produced, as well as tomato production, is caused by diseases in tomato leaves due to which farmers have a difficult time in controlling and monitoring the health of tomato leaves, one of which is leaf disease. In our project, we developed an Enhanced CNN by using data augmentation techniques to identify the seven classes(blight ,leaf curl, leaf miner ,Alteneria, leaf spot, cutwork infected) of tomato leaf diseases. Using 27807 trainable parameters, the enhanced CNN obtains the maximum training accuracy of ninety nine point nine eight percent(99.98%) and validating accuracy of ninety eight point four percent(98.4%) .With fewer parameters, The Enhanced CNN can more accurately determine the type of illness of tomato leaf. Our Enhanced CNN model also determine the type of illness of tomato leaf when tested with the images of diseased tomato leaf collected from the internet sources.Using 152850 trainable parameters the enhanced CNN obtain the maximum training accuracy of 99.68% and validation accuracy of 89%.

Analysis of the clinical and economic effectiveness of using benralizumab in comparison with standard therapy in patients with severe bronchial asthma

Objective: to evaluate the clinical and economic effectiveness of benralizumab in comparison with standard therapy in patients with severe bronchial asthma (SBA) with an eosinophilic phenotype in the Russian Federation.Material and methods. A clinical and economic analysis of using benralizumab in addition to standard therapy was carried out in comparison with standard therapy for SBA with an eosinophilic phenotype by means of a modeling method. Cost calculations were performed in a mathematical model adapted to the Russian healthcare conditions with the help of cost indicators and patient population characteristics.Results. The use of benralizumab as a mandatory component of standard therapy compared with standard therapy alone for SBA with an eosinophilic phenotype will allow for an additional 0.65 life years gained (LYGs) and 1.12 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per 1 patient during lifelong therapy. It will provide avoiding 4.95 exacerbations, simultaneously with a reduction in total costs by 584,144 rubles by reducing gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to mortality and temporary disability over an assessment horizon equal to life expectancy. The costs of 1 LYG and 1 QALY in the case of benralizumab were 869,455 and 1,252,056 rubles, in the case of standard therapy they were 911,615 and 1,303,811 rubles, respectively.Conclusion. Intensification of SBA therapy with an eosinophilic phenotype with benralizumab is clinically justified (leads to an increase in life expectancy, a decrease in the rate of exacerbations and an increase in patients’ working life), and is also economically feasible, as it allows to reduce direct costs and GDP losses of the state.

Lives Versus Livelihoods: The Epidemiological, Social, And Economic Impact Of COVID-19 In Latin America And The Caribbean.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American and Caribbean countries implemented stringent public health and social measures that disrupted economic and social activities. This study used an integrated model to evaluate the epidemiological, economic, and social trade-offs in Argentina, Brazil, Jamaica, and Mexico throughout 2021. Argentina and Mexico displayed a higher gross domestic product (GDP) loss and lower deaths per million compared with Brazil. The magnitude of the trade-offs differed across countries. Reducing GDP loss at the margin by 1percent would have increased daily deaths by 0.5 per million in Argentina but only 0.3 per million in Brazil. We observed an increase in poverty rates related to the stringency of public health and social measures but no significant income-loss differences by sex. Our results indicate that the economic impact of COVID-19 was uneven across countries as a result of different pandemic trajectories, public health and social measures, and vaccination uptake, as well as socioeconomic differences and fiscal responses. Policy makers need to be informed about the trade-offs to make strategic decisions to save lives and livelihoods.

Complementing carbon tax with renewable energy investment to decarbonize the energy system in China

Building a low-carbon energy system is particularly essential to address global climate change and regional air pollution. Focusing on China, this study integrated a power system decision model into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to comprehensively explore the low-carbon transition, environmental benefits, and economic costs of a combined carbon tax (CTax) and renewable energy investment (REI) policy. This study finds that a dynamic CTax (with a carbon price of 290 and 590 RMB/ton CO2 in 2035 and 2050, respectively) can reduce the share of coal-fired power from 65 % in 2017 to 22 % in 2050. This will reduce coal consumption by 0.8 billion tons of standard coal equivalent (tce), thus resulting in a coal share decline in the energy system from 60 % in 2017 to 29 % in 2050. Regarding environmental benefits, CTax can mitigate CO2 and air pollutant emissions by 3.9 and 0.9 Gt, respectively, in 2050. Complementing CTax with REI can further reduce coal consumption by 0.2 billion tce and lower the coal-fired power share to 12 %. Regionally, emission reductions in East China can be enhanced owing to REI, which can mitigate the inequity in emission reductions resulting from the CTax. However, this study finds that employing CTax alone may negatively affect the economy. In particular, across the Jin-Meng and Shan-Gan-Ning regions, the gross domestic product (GDP) will decrease by 3.35 % and 2.73 %, respectively. However, complementing CTax with REI can dampen these negative impacts, reducing the national GDP loss from −0.94 % to −0.68 %.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Economy‐Wide Impacts From a Changing Wildfire Climate on a Regional Rural Landscape

AbstractA warmer and drier future combined with rising population trends will result in increased wildfire risk. The design of robust mitigation/adaptation strategies requires the assessment of the economy‐wide risks from potentially more frequent large wildfire events under different futures. This study uses a novel interdisciplinary approach by integrating wildfire climate and land‐use forecasts into probabilistic and simulation models of wildfires to estimate direct impacts using damage curves and indirect impacts as lost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using a computable general equilibrium model. Based on the financial concept of Value at Risk, a probabilistic measure of extreme economy‐wide impacts was developed using GDP as the representative metric, namely “GDP at Risk (G@R),” under various climatic and socio‐economic scenarios. Using the new metric in the Waikato, New Zealand as a case study, due its primary industries' national relevance, it was identified that there is a 5% probability that the region will experience GDP losses greater or equal to NZ$0.1–1.2 billion (similar to the regional GDP growth in 2021) over a 48‐year period from future potential large wildfires affecting vulnerable primary industries. The regional impacts result in larger national GDP losses by a factor of 5 due to the high dependence of downstream sectors on the regional primary industries. While “G@R” estimates are similar across socio‐economic scenarios, there are no discernible patterns when compared across midcentury climate scenarios. The approach developed could be used to assess the consequences from afforestation projects, driven by mitigation policies, and adaptation strategies to reduce wildfire risk.

Forecasting China's water use peak path under coordinating perspective from economic development and technological progress

AbstractChina holds the distinction of being the foremost global consumer of water resources and contends with a significant level of water scarcity. In light of this quandary, China has been assiduously endeavoring to foster water conservation practices with the ultimate objective of reaching a peak point in water use. In this paper, we construct a framework for forecasting China's total water use (TWU) peak path. In this framework, we select influencing factors in terms of both economy and technology to forecast the peak path of China's TWU under six different scenarios, and analyze the economic and technological circumstances at the peak. Our findings indicate that China's TWU will persist in its upward trend based on both the high growth and business as usual scenarios. The projected peak period is estimated to transpire in 2037, 2032, 2030, and 2028, respectively, with the corresponding peak levels amounting to 644.03, 633.93, 625.79, and 620.92 billion m3. However, in the low growth scenarios, China's TWU reached its peak in 2013. The extent of economic development plays a pivotal role in determining the timing and manner of water usage peaking. Early peaking of water usage could potentially result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP). Furthermore, technological advancements hold the potential to facilitate a reduction in water use without requiring a significant trade‐off between resource conservation and economic development. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the average acreage of water used for irrigation on cropland, GDP, water use efficiency, and population contribute the most to TWU, while the increase in the proportion of industrial, service, and water‐saving irrigation area can reduce water use. Our analytical framework provides a commonly applicable solution for the water use forecast in areas seeking to reach the water use peak or to achieve sustainable development.

Thailand’s net-zero emissions by 2050: analysis of economy-wide impacts

This paper aims at exploring the economy-wide impacts of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 in Thailand. This study developed a recursive dynamic Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model of Thailand for the assessment. The macroeconomic impacts of Thailand’s net-zero GHG emission targets by 2050 are analyzed relative to its 2-degree pathway. Results indicate that Thailand should put more effort in GHG mitigation actions to achieve the emissions peak by 2025 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Improvement in energy efficiency; increasing electrification; expanding renewable energy utilization; deploying green hydrogen; bioenergy; carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS); and behavioral changes are the key identified pillars of decarbonization to drive Thailand towards the pathways of net-zero emissions by 2050. Results show that there is a possibility of attaining net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the expense of an economic loss for Thailand. The gross domestic product (GDP) loss would be as high as 8.5% in 2050 to attain net-zero emissions. Lower productivity from the energy intensive industries such as petroleum refineries, coal and lignite mining, manufacturing industries, and transport are the key contributing sectors to the GDP losses. The price of carbon mitigation would shoot up to reach USD 734 per tCO2eq in 2050 from USD 14 per tCO2eq in 2025 to attain net-zero emissions in 2050.

Macroeconomic impact of Ebola outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa and potential mitigation of GDP loss with prophylactic Ebola vaccination programs.

Decisions about prevention of and response to Ebola outbreaks require an understanding of the macroeconomic implications of these interventions. Prophylactic vaccines hold promise to mitigate the negative economic impacts of infectious disease outbreaks. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between outbreak size and economic impact among countries with recorded Ebola outbreaks and to quantify the hypothetical benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination interventions in these outbreaks. The synthetic control method was used to estimate the causal impacts of Ebola outbreaks on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of five countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have previously experienced Ebola outbreaks between 2000 and 2016, where no vaccines were deployed. Using illustrative assumptions about vaccine coverage, efficacy, and protective immunity, the potential economic benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination were estimated using the number of cases in an outbreak as a key indicator. The impact of Ebola outbreaks on the macroeconomy of the selected countries led to a decline in GDP of up to 36%, which was greatest in the third year after the onset of each outbreak and increased exponentially with the size of outbreak (i.e., number of reported cases). Over three years, the aggregate loss estimated for Sierra Leone from its 2014-2016 outbreak is estimated at 16.1 billion International$. Prophylactic vaccination could have prevented up to 89% of an outbreak's negative impact on GDP, reducing the outbreak's impact to as little as 1.6% of GDP lost. This study supports the case that macroeconomic returns are associated with prophylactic Ebola vaccination. Our findings support recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination as a core component of prevention and response measures for global health security.

Factorial CGE‐Based Analysis for the Indirect Benefits of the Three Gorges Project

AbstractLarge‐scale hydraulic projects (LHPs) have become increasingly significant in river basin flood‐risk management. Although LHPs’ direct flood‐retention benefits have been clearly shown, there has been a dearth of a comprehensive examination of their indirect implications, which can be more long‐lasting and substantial in both environmental and economic terms. Thus, this study develops a factorial computable general equilibrium (CGE)‐based LHP‐effect analysis approach (FLEA) to quantify the indirect impacts of LHPs and simulate postflood recovery strategies under diverse scenarios. The FLEA integrates a factorial analysis with a dynamic CGE framework, including a flood module that connects hydraulic initiatives to the economy during floods. The FLEA is applied to the Three Gorges Project (TGP). The results demonstrate that ∼$57 billion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and ∼12.9 Mt CO2eq reduction would be created annually through supply chains by the TGP. When floods strike, the TGP has the potential to save ∼$21 billion in GDP directly and reduce long‐term GDP losses by ∼50% throughout the reconstruction period. The TGP can have a considerable indirect impact on manufacturing. Furthermore, improved regulations and maintenance for the TGP may be desired for mitigating long‐term flood‐related losses, which is more crucial than aggressive postflood fiscal stimuli.

Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels

The Russia–Ukraine conflict lays bare the dependence of the European Union (EU) on fossil fuel imports from Russia. Here, we use a global computable general equilibrium model, C3IAM/GEEPA, to estimate CO2 emission and gross domestic product (GDP) impact of embargoing fossil fuels from Russia. We find that embargoes induce more than 10% reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU and slight increases of emissions in Russia, while both regions experience GDP losses (around 2% for the EU and about 5% for Russia, ignoring the relative impact of other sanctions). Reacting to increasing energy prices with demand-side response inside the EU would increase CO2 emission savings, while turning GDP losses into gains. Implementing a partial embargo with tariffs largely compensates for lost government revenue. An EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels would lead to a rapid decrease in fossil fuel combustion, GHG emissions reductions and potential economic losses. This analysis quantifies such effects, while also demonstrating how demand-side responses could offset the negative shock.

Modelling the Impact of a Rise in Global Equity Risk Premium: The G-Cubed Simulation

The global disruptions—the Covid-19 pandemic, financial crisis, trade tension, and geopolitical issues—led to uncertainty across the world economies. The impact either on individual emerging or advanced countries, however, remains unclear. To this end, this study is simulating a shock of a one percent increase in equity risk premium permanently in all sectors in all countries, and focusing on exploring its impact on the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, China, Indonesia, and India. The results reveal that no countries are immune from the short-lived synchronised nuisance. Investment plummeted massively following the profound drop in interest rate, while unemployment suddenly soars, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted dramatically. In the long run, all economies reverse and converge to the initial condition. Nevertheless, there would be persistent GDP loss and sluggish investment in all economies. Therefore, policy responses should be designed based on strong international cooperation, focusing on fiscal policy to limit the impact of global losing confidence.

Socioeconomic burden of diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular edema in the Russian Federation

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a specific neuromicrovascular complication of diabetes mellitus. Diabetic macular edema (DME) is a retinal thickening associated with fluid accumulation in the intercellular space of the neuroep- ithelium due to hematoretinal barrier failure and mismatch between fluid transudation and reabsorption ability of the pigment epithelium cells. Treat- ment of DR and DME appears to be costly, but there are no data on the economic burden of the disease in the Russian Federation. The analysis of direct (the cost of medications, laboratory and instrumental methods of research, the cost of medical products, etc.), indirect (the patient’s lost income in connection with temporary disability, disability payments) and indirect (loss of gross domestic product, etc.) expenses for DR and DMD was carried out. When calculated for the total population of patients with DR and DMD, the total costs amounted to 466,777,104,440 rubles. Of these, RUB 24,059,855,774 were costs for patients with DR, RUB 11,428,438,452 were costs for patients with DMO, RUB 260,078,000,343 were costs for patients with clinically significant DMO, and RUB 171,210,809,871 were costs for patients with clinically significant DMO in both eyes. Direct medical costs accounted for most of the total economic burden (62.44%).

The local costs of global climate change: spatial GDP downscaling under different climate scenarios

ABSTRACT We present a tractable methodology to estimate climate change costs at a 1 × 1 km grid resolution. Climate change costs are obtained as projected gross domestic product (GDP) changes, under different global shared socio-economic pathway–representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, from a regional (multiple European NUTS levels) version of the Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System (ICES) model. Local costs are obtained by downscaling projected GDP according to urbanized area estimated by a grid-level model that accounts for fixed effects, such as population and location, and spatially clustered random effects at multiple hierarchical administrative levels. We produce a grid-level dataset of climate change economic impacts under different scenarios that can be used to compare the cost – in terms of GDP loss – of no adaptation and the benefits of investing in local adaptation.

The Economic Cost of Terrorism in Iraq: preliminary assessment

The research aims to provide a preliminary estimate of the total costs incurred by Iraq from 2003 to the present, including estimating the costs of human losses in cash, which constitutes the first attempt to find a comprehensive estimate of the costs of terrorism and the war on it, and the opportunity costs of it. Although the task is not easy, as it requires a re-evaluation of capital and human assets and calculating their current values, the difficulties extend to calculating the upbringing costs of an Iraqi child until he reaches the age of 20, based on calculating the cost of living over the years. The results provide a preliminary estimate of the expenses incurred by Iraq due to terrorism during the past 19 years since 2003. It is an initial estimate as there are still some other unestimated costs whose estimation will raise the bill for confronting terrorism in Iraq. In total, the costs of terrorism in Iraq amounted to 1.435 trillion dollars, of which the human cost constitutes 65%, and the loss of gross domestic product is 23%. It could have been repurposed for uses that serve the trends of progress and development in the country, increase the welfare of its people, eliminate poverty and deprivation, and rise on the ladder of development progress

Trends in elephant poaching in the Mid‐Zambezi Valley, Zimbabwe: Lessons learnt and future outlook

Trends in elephant poaching in the <scp>Mid‐Zambezi</scp> Valley, Zimbabwe: Lessons learnt and future outlook