Longitudinal Outcomes Research Articles

Review article: Measuring disease severity in inflammatory bowel disease - Beyond treat to target.

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) follows a heterogenous disease course and predicting a patient's prognosis is challenging. There is a wide burden of illness in IBD and existing tools measure disease activity at a snapshot in time. Comprehensive assessment of IBD severity should incorporate disease activity, prognosis, and the impacts of disease on a patient. This review investigates the concept of disease severity in adults with IBD to highlight key components contributing to this. To perform this narrative review, a Medline search was conducted for full-text articles available at 1st March 2024 using search terms which encompassed disease activity assessment, disease severity, prognosis, natural history of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), and the burden of IBD. Current methods of disease assessment in IBD have evolved from a focus on the burden of symptoms to one that includes inflammatory targets, genetic, serological, and proteomic profiles, and assessments of quality-of-life (QoL), disability, and psychosocial health. Longitudinal studies of IBD suggest that the burden of illness is driven by disease phenotype, clinical markers of complicated disease course (previous intestinal resection, corticosteroid use, perianal disease in CD, recent hospitalisations in UC), gut inflammation, and the impact of IBD on the patient. Disease severity in IBD can be difficult to conceptualise due to the multitude of factors that contribute to IBD outcomes. Measurement of IBD severity may better encapsulate the full burden of illness rather than gut inflammation alone at a single timepoint and may be associated with longitudinal outcomes.

Long-Term Neurologic Outcomes in Pediatric Arterial Ischemic Stroke: The Impact of Age and Lesion Location.

The impact of age-at-stroke on outcome following pediatric arterial ischemic stroke remains controversial. We studied the interaction of age-at-stroke and infarct location and extent with long-term neurological outcomes. We conducted a longitudinal prospective outcome study of children with acute pediatric arterial ischemic stroke diagnosed from 1996 to 2016 at the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada. Pediatric Stroke Outcome Measure scores were dichotomized as normal or abnormal (ie, mild, moderate, or severe). Outcomes were analyzed by age-at-stroke (newborn: birth to 28 days; early childhood: 29 days to 5 years; middle/late childhood: >5-18 years), and infarct location, based on each of the following: model 1: circulation (anterior/posterior); model 2: cortical versus subcortical involvement; and model 3: specific arterial territory, including infarct extent (small [<50% arterial territory] or large [≥50%]). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted. Among 285 children, the outcome at median 6.1 years was 43.5% abnormal. Controlling for infarct location, increasing age-at-stroke was associated with increasing abnormal outcome. Model 1 demonstrated that, compared with neonates, abnormal outcomes were increased in early childhood (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.91 [95% CI, 1.24-7.05]) and more so in middle/late childhood (aOR, 4.46 [95% CI, 1.71-12.13]). Outcomes were worse for combined locations, including anterior+posterior (model 1: aOR, 15.4 [95% CI, 4.49-64.63]) and cortical+subcortical (model 2: aOR, 10.7 [95% CI, 3.88-32.74]). Abnormal outcomes were also increased for anterior circulation (model 1: aOR, 14.91 [95% CI, 5.29-54.21]) and subcortical locations (model 2: aOR, 4.36 [95% CI, 1.37-14.95]). Among individual arterial territories, outcomes were best for superior division middle cerebral artery (100% normal) and worst for lateral lenticulostriate artery infarcts (47.4% abnormal; model 3: aOR, 14.2 [95% CI, 3.5-67.6]). Among survivors of pediatric stroke, abnormal long-term neurological outcome is increased with increasing age-at-stroke, supporting enhanced plasticity after focal injury to the newborn brain compared with older pediatric ages.

5-year valve academic research consortium-3 outcomes and predictors of mortality in a 10-year Asian transcatheter aortic valve implantation registry

Abstract Background Transaortic valvular implantation (TAVI) has revolutionised the management of aortic stenosis (AS). Uptake in Asia has caught up in recent years, after an initial lag due to expensive cost, limited subsidies, and scarce accessibility. Hence, longitudinal outcomes of TAVI remain largely unknown in Asian patients. Purpose This study aims to present the 5-year mortality endpoints in an Asian cohort followed up over a decade. Methods 253 patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis status post TAVI were retrospectively enrolled at a tertiary academic hospital from 2010-2021. The main outcomes were defined as short-term (30-day), mid-term (1-year) and long-term (5-year) all-cause mortality. Baseline demographics, procedural findings and clinical outcomes were analysed. Kaplan-Meier curves and multiple Cox regression analyses were constructed. Results The mean age was 75.2 + 10.2 years. 120 (47.4%) patients were female and 167 (66%) were Chinese. 168 patients (66.7%) received balloon-expandable valves, 80 patients (31.7%) underwent self-expandable valves, and 4 patients (1.6%) had mechanical-expandable valves. Malignancy was associated with worse short-term mortality at 30-days (HR 3.65, p = 0.054), while pulmonary disease and previous stroke were associated with worse long-term mortality at 5-years (HR 2.27, p = 0.012 and HR 2.02, p = 0.064). Worse all-cause mortality at 30-days, 1-year and 5-years were associated with high NT-Pro BNP levels (HR 1.04, p = 0.046; HR 1.05, p = 0.002 and HR 1.04, p &amp;lt; 0.001), the presence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) (HR 4.32, p = 0.056; HR 4.48, p = 0.006 and HR 2.43, p = 0.023) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (HR 6.19, p = 0.006; HR 6.77, p &amp;lt; 0.001 and HR 2.09, p = 0.008). Society of Thoracic Surgery (STS) score (HR 1.11, p = 0.001; HR 1.13, p &amp;lt; 0.001 and HR 1.12, p &amp;lt; 0.001) and Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC) III endpoints of acute kidney injury (AKI) (HR 6.68, p = 0.047, HR 10.8, p &amp;lt; 0.001 and HR 6.99, p &amp;lt; 0.001), cardiogenic shock (HR 26.3, p &amp;lt; 0.001, HR 12.0, p &amp;lt; 0.001 and HR 4.29, p = 0.011) and structural complications (HR 40.3, p &amp;lt; 0.001, HR 18.1, p &amp;lt; 0.001 and HR 5.18, p = 0.008) were associated with worse all –cause mortality at time-points of 30-days, 1-year and 5-years respectively. On multivariate analyses adjusted for comorbidities and outcomes, STS score and structural complications were independent predictors of 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year all-cause mortality (HR 1.16; p = 0.003, HR 1.09, p = 0.003 and HR 1.10, p &amp;lt; 0.001) and (HR 62.7, p &amp;lt; 0.007; HR 18.9, p &amp;lt; 0.001 and HR 10.6, p = 0.001) respectively. Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) use was protective of survival within 1-year (HR 0.37, p = 0.022). Conclusions STS score and VARC III endpoints of structural complications were reliable predictors of all-cause mortality in Asian patients with TAVI. ACE inhibitor and ARB use was protective against mortality at 1-year.Cox regression analysesKaplan-Meier curves

Stories of absence: Experiences of parental and familial rejection among gender-diverse children and young people.

Previous research has demonstrated the positive associations with parental support with better mental health outcomes in gender-diverse young people. However, less is known about what happens within a family structure if an unsupportive parent or family member leaves the family unit and sees the child only on the condition that they present in a way that conforms to their birth gender. This paper will focus on the first interviews with nine families within the wider sample of 39 families in the LOGIC-Q (Longitudinal Outcomes of Gender Identity in Children - qualitative) study who reported they had experienced rejection by a parent or family member after the young person had disclosed their gender non-conformity. These families' narratives are examined through two themes: How rejection impacts visitation, and Moving past the loss of rejection. The families all spoke about how they had adapted to the loss of their family members. They described how any negative impact would have been worse had they stayed living together, or were in contact with, the rejecting family member. Here, it becomes important then to understand the context of why a gender-diverse young person may choose to no longer see a parent or family member.

Associations between symptom-based long COVID clusters and long-term quality of life, work and daily activities among individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 at a national retail pharmacy

BackgroundEvidence on long COVID symptom clustering patterns among patients with COVID-19 is limited. We summarized long COVID symptoms in clusters defined by number of symptoms co-occurring together, and we assessed Health-Related Quality of Life (HQRoL), Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) outcomes across these clusters over time. We assessed associations between the clusters and BNT162b2 vaccination status.MethodsA prospective longitudinal patient-reported outcomes (PRO) study recruited laboratory-confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 patients seeking testing from a national retail pharmacy. Long COVID-19 symptoms were self-reported by participants at 4-week, 3-month and 6-month surveys. Patient classes identified via latent class analysis (LCA) with long COVID-19 symptoms were simplified into clusters based on number of symptoms. HRQoL and WPAI outcomes were collected using EQ-ED-5L and WPAI: GH questionnaires. Mixed models for repeated measures analyses were conducted to examine associations between exposure groups and outcomes.ResultsThe study included 328 participants that were segmented into three groups of long COVID-19 symptoms based on LCA and then simplified by the number of symptoms (Cluster 1 low, <2; Cluster 2 moderate, 2–6; and Cluster 3 high, >6 symptoms). The number of long COVID-19 symptoms was negatively associated with HRQoL and WPAI, whereby participants with high symptom burden (>6 symptoms) had the lowest HRQoL and WPAI scores assessed by absenteeism, presenteeism, work productivity loss, activity impairment, and hours worked metrics. Compared with those unvaccinated and not up-to-date with COVID-19 vaccination, subjects boosted with BNT162b2 consistently reported less symptom burden during the follow-up, regardless of their symptom-based cluster.ConclusionThree distinct patient clusters based on frequency of long COVID symptoms experienced different HRQoL and WPAI outcomes over 6 months. The cluster with more concomitant symptoms experienced greater burden than the others. Participants up-to-date with BNT162b2 reported lower symptom burden across all clusters and timeframes.Clinical trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov NCT05160636.

Short- and medium-term longitudinal outcomes of children diagnosed with multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children - report from a single centre in Pakistan.

To determine the short- and medium-term cardiac outcomes in children admitted with multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children at a tertiary care centre in Pakistan. Children fulfilling the criteria for multisystem inflammatory syndrome and admitted to the hospital between April 2020 and March 2022 were enrolled in this prospective longitudinal cohort study. From admission to discharge, laboratory and cardiac parameters were recorded for all patients, who were subsequently followed up in clinics at various intervals. Data analysis was conducted using STATA version 15.0. A total of 51 children were included, with viral myocarditis (41.2%) and toxic shock syndrome (33.3%) being the most common phenotypes. The cardiovascular system was most commonly affected in 27 children (53%) with laboratory evidence of inflammation and myocardial injury with median and interquartile levels of ferritin 1169 (534-1704), C-reactive protein 83 (24-175), lactate dehydrogenase 468 (365-1270), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide 8,656 (2,538-31,166), and troponin 0.16 (0.02-2.0).On admission, decreased left ventricular ejection fraction was observed in 58.8% of patients and impaired global longitudinal strain in 33.3%. At discharge, left ventricular ejection fraction had normalised in 83% of patients. Pericardial effusion resolved in all patients, and valvulitis resolved in 86% by 12 months. Paediatric ICU admission was required in 42 (82%) of patients with an overall mortality of 12% (n = 6). Our study finds high hospital mortality for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children compared to 1-2% from previous studies. Yet, in Pakistan, surviving children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome show favourable short- to medium-term cardiac outcomes.

Voice biomarkers in middle and later adulthood as predictors of cognitive changes

BackgroundProsody voice measures, especially jitter and shimmer, have been associated with cognitive impairment and hold potential as early indicators of risk for cognitive decline. Prior research suggests that voice measures assessed concurrently with longitudinal cognitive outcomes are associated with 10-year cognitive declines in middle-age and older adults from Midlife in the U.S. (MIDUS) study.ResultsUsing a subsample from the same study, we expanded previous research to examine voice measures that were (1) collected 8 years before cognitive outcomes, (2) derived from narrative speech in logical memory tests instead of word list recall tests, and (3) independent of the cognitive outcomes. Multilevel analyses controlled for covariates of age, sex, education, neurological conditions, depressive symptoms, and chronic conditions. The results indicated that higher jitter and lower shimmer predicted greater 10-year declines in episodic memory and working memory.ConclusionThese findings extend previous research by highlighting prosody voice measures assessed 8 years earlier as predictors of subsequent cognitive declines over a decade.

Pathologist Interrater Reliability and Clinical Implications of Elevated Donor-Derived Cell-Free DNA beyond Heart Transplant Rejection

BackgroundThere is significant variability amongst pathologists in the histopathological interpretation of the endomyocardial biopsy (EMB) for acute cellular rejection (ACR) and assessment of variability in the interpretation of antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) has not been reported. In contemporary practice, the strategy of allograft surveillance with donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) as compared to EMB has not been compared with a focus on long-term clinical outcomes beyond acute rejection (AR). MethodsThe Genomic Research Alliance for Transplantation (GRAfT) is a multicenter, prospective cohort study that enrolled patients from 2015 to 2020. The center pathologist read was compared to two blinded core cardiac pathologists. ACR and AMR were graded based on the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) criteria. Weighted Cohen’s kappa (κ) was used to evaluate interrater reliability between the center and core reads. To assess long-term outcomes, we evaluated a composite of AR, allograft dysfunction, and mortality within 1 year. ResultsThe study included 94 patients (median age 55 years [IQR 45, 62]), 30% female, 41% Black race) with a total of 429 EMBs and paired dd-cfDNA measures. The concordance rate between center and core pathologists was 77% for ACR (95%CI: 66% - 89%) and 63% for AMR (95%CI: 53% - 74%). 46 patients had an elevation in dd-cfDNA without AR by EMB. The median dd-cfDNA was 0.49% (IQR: 0.35, 1.01) and subsequent AR, allograft dysfunction, or mortality occurred in 59% of these patients at 1 year. In patients with AR by EMB and negative dd-cfDNA (n=5) the composite outcome occurred in 20% of patients at 1 year. At baseline, the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of dd-cfDNA to detect AR by the center pathologist was 3.74 (95% CI 3.01 - 4.64) and core pathologist was 2.59 (95%CI: 1.95 - 3.45). If the composite outcome was included as a true positive, the LR+ of dd-cfDNA improved to 9.82 (95%CI: 7.04, 13.69) and7.63 (95% CI: 5.61, 10.38) at 1-year, respectively. ConclusionsPathologists interrater reliability is limited in both ACR and AMR. The positive LR of dd-cfDNA when compared to traditional histopathology is limited, but when longitudinal clinical outcomes are included to assess diagnostic performance, the LR+ improves significantly. The value of dd-cfDNA extends beyond the diagnosis of AR to include other clinically meaningful outcomes for patients after heart transplant.

Longitudinal Outcomes: Student Perceptions of a Third-Party-Resource-Based Pre-matriculation Module

Longitudinal Outcomes: Student Perceptions of a Third-Party-Resource-Based Pre-matriculation Module

Psychiatric Comorbidities in Women with Complete Androgen Insensitivity Syndrome or Müllerian Aplasia/Agenesis.

Understanding mental health issues facing individuals with disorders/differences of sex development (DSD) is crucial for optimizing evidence-based practices in this population. To compare the prevalence of psychiatric diagnoses among patients diagnosed with complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS) or Müllerian duct aplasia/agenesis (MA) to male and female reference groups. Retrospective cohort study. Three large integrated health systems. All individuals with confirmed CAIS or MA enrolled in one of three Kaiser Permanente healthcare systems between January 1, 1988, and January 31, 2017. For each DSD patient, age-, race/ethnicity- and health system-matched male and female referents with typical sex development were randomly selected. Mental health diagnoses and use of psychiatric medications. The prevalence of anxiety and depressive disorders in the CAIS and MA cohorts was approximately twice as high as in male referents without DSD, but the corresponding differences relative to female referents were less evident. A subgroup of MA patients with uterine agenesis had higher prevalence of bipolar disorder than either reference group, but these results were accompanied by wide confidence intervals. Women with CAIS and MA more frequently filled psychiatric medications compared to male but not female referents. On balance, these findings are reassuring, albeit requiring confirmation in other settings. Future studies using longitudinal designs and patient-reported outcomes are needed to evaluate changes in mental health status of CAIS and MA patients at different ages and different intervals following initial diagnosis.

Longitudinal outcomes of iStent inject with cataract surgery compared to cataract surgery alone: real-world data from the Fight Glaucoma Blindness registry.

To compare combined phacoemulsification and iStent inject to phacoemulsification alone. Fight Glaucoma Blindness (FGB) registry - Australia. Prospective observational registry study. Eyes that had combined phacoemulsification with iStent inject (iStent group) were compared to eyes that had phacoemulsification only (cataract alone). Primary outcome was percentage of eyes achieving >20% IOP reduction from baseline 12 months after surgery. Secondary outcomes included mean IOP and medication reduction, adverse events and secondary procedures. At 12 months the percentage of eyes achieving >20% reduction of IOP at 12 months was significantly higher in the iStent group compared to the cataract alone group (40.9% vs 30.1% p<0.001). Adverse events occurred at a low rate in both groups, and secondary IOP lowering procedures were significantly less frequent in the iStent group compared to cataract alone. Real-world outcomes from the FGB registry at 12 months show phacoemulsification combined with iStent inject has higher efficacy and a reduced need for secondary IOP lowering surgery compared to phacoemulsification alone.

Mobile health monitoring of children with CHDs.

Mobile health has been shown to improve quality, access, and efficiency of health care in select populations. We sought to evaluate the benefits of mobile health monitoring using the KidsHeart app in an infant CHD population. We reviewed data submitted to KidsHeart from parents of infants discharged following intervention for high-risk CHD lesions including subjects status post stage 1 single ventricle palliation, ductal stent or surgical shunt, pulmonary artery band, or right ventricular outflow tract stent. We report on the benefits of a novel mobile health red flag scoring system, mobile health growth/feed tracking, and longitudinal neurodevelopmental outcomes tracking. A total of 69 CHD subjects (63% male, 41% non-white, median age 28 days [interquartile range 20, 75 days]) were included with median mobile health follow-up of 137 days (56, 190). During the analytic window, subjects submitted 5700 mobile health red flag notifications including 245 violations (mean [standard deviation] 3 ± 3.96 per participant) with 80% (55/69) of subjects submitting at least one violation. Violations precipitated 116 interventions including hospital admission in 34 (29%) with trans-catheter evaluation in 15 (13%) of those. Growth data (n = 2543 daily weights) were submitted by 63/69 (91%) subjects and precipitated 31 feed changes in 23 participants. Sixty-eight percent of subjects with age >2 months submitted at least one complete neurodevelopment questionnaire. In our initial experience, mobile health monitoring using the KidsHeart app enhanced interstage monitoring permitting earlier intervention, allowed for remote tracking of growth feeding, and provided a means for tracking longitudinal neurodevelopmental outcomes.

Comparison of Longitudinal Outcomes in Children with Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia and Cystic Fibrosis.

Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) and cystic fibrosis (CF) are both genetic diseases of mucociliary clearance resulting in progressive lung disease with onset in early life. PCD is often considered to be milder in childhood than CF, based on minimal evidence. Similar to CF, genotype-phenotype associations exist in PCD: pathogenic variants in CCDC39 and CCDC40, causing inner dynein arm/microtubular defects (IDA/MTD) are associated with more severe disease. To compare longitudinal outcomes in matched children with PCD and CF. We hypothesized that children with PCD with IDA/MTD defects would have lower lung function but better nutritional indices than matched children with CF with minimal function genotypes (i.e., those associated with pancreatic insufficiency). Children with PCD enrolled in a prospective, multicenter, observational study were matched with CF patients from the CF Foundation Patient Registry by birth cohort, age, sex, race/ethnicity and year of study visit. The association of disease group overall and by severity class (PCD-IDA/MTD versus all other defects and CF-minimal versus residual function) with longitudinal outcomes up to age 17 was evaluated with cubic spline mixed effects models. Groups included 136 children with PCD (40 IDA/MTD, 96 other) and 476 with CF (446 minimal function, 30 residual function). Below age 14, the PCD group had similar or lower estimated mean FEV1 % predicted compared to CF (e.g., at age 10, -5.4 % predicted lower (95% CI: -7.7, -3.1)). Compared to the CF-minimal function (pancreatic insufficient) group, the PCD-IDA/MTD group had similar BMI; estimated mean FEV1 % predicted was significantly lower by age 10 (mean difference -10.6% (95% CI: -14.7, -6.4), increasing to -15.7% (95% CI: -20.3, -11.2) at age 14. The CF cohort had increased prevalence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa cultured on one or more occasions compared to children with PCD (67% vs 27%, p<0.001); there was no difference in prevalence of P. aeruginosa between children with PCD-IDA/MTD and PCD-other. In childhood, average lung function abnormalities in PCD are not milder than CF, particularly for those with IDA/MTD ciliary defects. New guidelines and treatments to improve outcomes in PCD are urgently needed.

Outcomes after intranasal human milk therapy in preterm infants with intraventricular hemorrhage.

Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is a common cause of brain injury in preterm infants. Fresh human milk (HM) contains stem cells (SCs) that could potentially be delivered via intranasal HM (IHM). In this IHM pilot study, we describe outcomes. Infants <33 weeks gestation with IVH were given IHM until maximum 28 days of age. Short-term neurologic outcomes and follow-up testing were compared to historic HM-fed infants. Longitudinal outcomes were plotted using linear mixed models. Weighted G-computation quantified treatment effects. Propensity score models calculated inverse probability weights for IVH grade, gestational age, and sex. 37 infants (35.1% grade 3-4 IVH) were compared to 191 historic controls (17.8% grade 3-4 IVH). Post-hemorrhagic ventricular dilatation was common (25.7% IHM patients). Most weighted outcomes, although not significant, favored IHM at 4-12 and 18 months corrected age. This phase 1 study suggests powered trials of IHM for brain injury are needed. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME: clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT04225286.

Prolonged Neurological and Musculoskeletal Symptoms Following Shingrix Vaccination

Background: The recombinant zoster vaccine (Shingrix) helps prevent shingles and its complications in adults 50 and older. While minor side effects are common, severe adverse reactions are thought to be rare, and long-term side effects are not well documented. Case Presentation: A 50-year-old woman with Crohn’s disease developed joint pain, effusion, and neurological symptoms such as numbness and tingling shortly after receiving the first dose of the recombinant zoster vaccine. Symptoms waxed and waned but persisted for over a year despite anti-inflammatories and specialist referrals. Diagnostic imaging and labs were unrevealing. Conclusions: This case of prolonged somatic and neurological symptoms associated temporally with Recombinant zoster vaccine administration reinforces the critical need for thorough pharmacovigilance and investigation of possible long-term adverse vaccine reactions. Provider documentation and reporting of individual experiences can help improve the detection of rare vaccine-related risks, elucidate potential risk factors, and refine safety screening. Diligent monitoring and research into longitudinal vaccine outcomes remain paramount, especially following recent emergency authorizations.

Joint modeling of zero-inflated longitudinal measurements and time-to-event outcomes with applications to dynamic prediction.

In this article, we present a joint modeling approach for zero-inflated longitudinal count measurements and time-to-event outcomes. For the longitudinal sub-model, a mixed effects Hurdle model is utilized, incorporating various distributional assumptions such as zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial, or zero-inflated generalized Poisson. For the time-to-event sub-model, a Cox proportional hazard model is applied. For the functional form linking the longitudinal outcome history to the hazard of the event, a linear combination is used. This combination is derived from the current values of the linear predictors of Hurdle mixed effects. Some other forms are also considered, including a linear combination of the current slopes of the linear predictors of Hurdle mixed effects as well as the shared random effects. A Markov chain Monte Carlo method is implemented for Bayesian parameter estimation. Dynamic prediction using joint modeling is highly valuable in personalized medicine, as discussed here for joint modeling of zero-inflated longitudinal count measurements and time-to-event outcomes. We assess and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed joint models through extensive simulation studies, with a specific emphasis on parameter estimation and dynamic predictions for both over-dispersed and under-dispersed data. We finally apply the joint model to longitudinal microbiome pregnancy and HIV data sets.

Review article: The role of the gut-brain axis in inflammatory bowel disease and its therapeutic implications.

Treatments targeting the gut-brain axis (GBA) are effective at reducing symptom burden in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). The prevalence of common mental disorders and IBS-type symptom reporting is significantly higher in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) than would be expected, suggesting potential GBA effects in this setting. Manipulation of the GBA may offer novel treatment strategies in selected patients with IBD. We present a narrative review of the bi-directional effects of the GBA in IBD and explore the potential for GBA-targeted therapies in this setting. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, EMBASE Classic, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for relevant articles published by March 2024. The bi-directional relationship between psychological well-being and adverse longitudinal disease activity outcomes, and the high prevalence of IBS-type symptom reporting highlight the presence of GBA-mediated effects in IBD. Treatments targeting gut-brain interactions including brain-gut behavioural treatments, neuromodulators, and dietary interventions appear to be useful adjunctive treatments in a subset of patients. Psychological morbidity is prevalent in patients with IBD. The relationship between longitudinal disease activity outcomes, IBS-type symptom reporting, and poor psychological health is mediated via the GBA. Proactive management of psychological health should be integrated into routine care. Further clinical trials of GBA-targeted therapies, conducted in selected groups of patients with co-existent common mental disorders, or those who report IBS-type symptoms, are required to inform effective integrated models of care in the future.

Spatiotemporal multilevel joint modeling of longitudinal and survival outcomes in end-stage kidney disease.

Individuals with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) on dialysis experience high mortality and excessive burden of hospitalizations over time relative to comparable Medicare patient cohorts without kidney failure. A key interest in this population is to understand the time-dynamic effects of multilevel risk factors that contribute to the correlated outcomes of longitudinal hospitalization and mortality. For this we utilize multilevel data from the United States Renal Data System (USRDS), a national database that includes nearly all patients with ESKD, where repeated measurements/hospitalizations over time are nested in patients and patients are nested within (health service) regions across the contiguous U.S. We develop a novel spatiotemporal multilevel joint model (STM-JM) that accounts for the aforementioned hierarchical structure of the data while considering the spatiotemporal variations in both outcomes across regions. The proposed STM-JM includes time-varying effects of multilevel (patient- and region-level) risk factors on hospitalization trajectories and mortality and incorporates spatial correlations across the spatial regions via a multivariate conditional autoregressive correlation structure. Efficient estimation and inference are performed via a Bayesian framework, where multilevel varying coefficient functions are targeted via thin-plate splines. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is assessed through simulation studies. An application of the proposed method to the USRDS data highlights significant time-varying effects of patient- and region-level risk factors on hospitalization and mortality and identifies specific time periods on dialysis and spatial locations across the U.S. with elevated hospitalization and mortality risks.

The Children's National Hospital Outcomes Registry: a plea for a benchmarking tool that provides longitudinal outcomes for patients and families.

Surgical advancements in paediatric cardiovascular surgery have led to improved survival rates for those patients with the most complex CHDs leading to greater numbers of patients who are living well into adulthood. Despite this new era of long-term survival, our current reporting systems continue to focus largely on using short-term postoperative outcomes as the criteria to both rate and rank hospitals. Using such limited criteria to rate and rank hospitals may mislead the intended audiences: patients and families. The goal of this article is to describe the creation of a local benchmarking report which aims to retrospectively review long-term outcomes from our single centre. This report is updated annually and published on our cardiac surgery webpage in an effort to be as transparent as possible for our patient and family communities.

Possible Data-Generating Models of Longitudinal Continuous Outcomes and Intercurrent Events to Investigate Estimands

We aim to explore data-generating models to jointly simulate outcomes and intercurrent events for randomized clinical trials to enable the investigation of estimands. We develop four possible data-generating models for the joint distribution of longitudinal continuous clinical outcomes and intercurrent events under the scenario where they are observable: a selection model, a pattern-mixture mixed model, a shared-parameter model, and a joint model of longitudinally observed outcomes and a survival model for intercurrent events. We present a case study in a short-term depression trial with repeated measurements of continuous outcomes and two types of intercurrent events, and evaluate the potential and challenges of such data-generating models. Simulating randomized trials with outcomes and intercurrent events is a complex undertaking. We found that the four possible data-generating models can simulate different types of intercurrent events and associated longitudinal outcomes. They can be used to emulate envisaged patterns of intercurrent events and outcomes informed by prior available trial data or expectations. Model and parameter choice for a given application require further development. The four possible data-generating models could be used to investigate different estimands and their properties in-depth in the design stage. Thereby they are useful tools for the selection of estimands a priori.