Longer Duration Of Unemployment Research Articles

The effects of contract-type mismatch and matching frictions on unemployment duration: evidence for Portugal

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the impact of matching frictions in the Portuguese labour market on individual unemployment hazard rates and unemployment durations. The coexistence of permanent contracts and temporary contracts in the Portuguese (dual) labour-market is akin to a matching friction, with a contract-type mismatch between jobseekers who prefer permanent contracts, whereas firms, in turn, prefer to offer temporary contracts. The paper uses a rich micro dataset which allows to compute a time and space varying contract-type mismatch index, over 86 local labour markets (job-centers of the Portuguese Public Employment System) and five years. Employing discrete time hazard models and a stock-flow matching mechanism, we find that local labour markets with higher contract-type mismatch rates are characterized by lower hazard rates and longer unemployment duration. Improving the desirability of temporary contracts and information about local contract-type mismatch rates may reduce matching frictions and average unemployment duration.

Job search, occupational choice and learning

This paper investigates the labor market consequences of incomplete information about workers’ own job searching process and best occupations fitting to them. A search and learning model is provided in order to analyze these effects. In the model, search outcomes relay information about workers’ job finding abilities and appropriate occupations suited to them, and workers use this information to infer their types. Our theory explains how search outcomes during unemployment can change the beliefs of workers about their job finding ability and consequently affect their decisions including the occupational choices. Characterization of the model results in a simple value function with reservation level of prior belief property that is similar to reservation wage property. Some interesting facts about both micro and macro data are identified and our model’s explanation of these facts is discussed. Particularly, our characterization gives rational for why workers with less experience in searching have (1) longer unemployment duration and (2) higher probability of changing occupation by reemployment, and (3) why shifts in Beveridge curve may be observed. Theory can also be used to (4) explain the discouraged worker phenomenon.

Aspects of Executive Dysfunction and Racial/Ethnic Minority Status Are Associated With Unemployment Duration in Veterans With a History of Mild-to-Moderate Traumatic Brain Injury

ObjectiveTo examine demographic, psychiatric symptom, and neuropsychological performance factors associated with duration of unemployment in Iraq/Afghanistan Veterans with a history of mild-to-moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI). DesignCross-sectional, secondary data analysis of baseline measures in a supported employment study. SettingVA medical center. ParticipantsParticipants (N=50) were veterans with a history of mild-to-moderate TBI who were unemployed, stating a goal of returning to work, and had documented impairment in at least 1 neuropsychological domain. Participants were referred from VA vocational and assessment-based clinics. InterventionsNot applicable. Main Outcome MeasuresDuration of unemployment, neuropsychological, and psychiatric symptom assessments. ResultsBivariate correlations revealed that longer duration of unemployment was associated with greater posttraumatic stress disorder (P<.10) and depressive (P<.05) symptom severity, worse executive functioning (P<.05), and racial/ethnic minority status (P<.05). A multiple linear regression analysis including these independent variables explained 26.5% of the variance in duration of unemployment. Worse executive functioning, specifically reasoning and set-shifting, and minority status were each associated with longer duration of unemployment in the context of multiple independent variables. ConclusionsOur results underscore the importance of objective assessment of cognitive functioning in job-seeking Veterans with TBI histories. It may be useful to target aspects of executive functioning in vocational rehabilitation interventions and to provide additional assistance to Veterans from racial/ethnic minority groups.

S223. DETERMINANTS OF SUSTAINED UNEMPLOYMENT IN FORMERLY EMPLOYED SCHIZOPHRENIA PATIENTS

BackgroundVocational drift, or the suggestion that severe mental illness leads to reductions in occupational attainment, has been repeatedly observed in schizophrenia. Neurocognition, social functioning, education, environment, and previous work experience have been implicated in patients’ ability to acquire and maintain a job. Interestingly, some patients with successful prior work histories can develop chronic unemployment. In this study, we analyzed a sample of schizophrenic individuals with varying histories of obtaining and sustaining employment to examine vocational drift through the lens of vocational deterioration. We hypothesized that 1) social cognitive variables would be more impaired in patients with a long duration of unemployment and 2) neurocognitive deficits would be more prominent in patients who were never employed.Methods396 patients between 18 and 70 years old with a diagnosis of Schizophrenia, Schizoaffective Disorder, or First Episode Spectrum Disorder were included in this analysis. Measures included comprehensive clinical, neurocognitive, social cognitive, and functional assessments. Samples were divided into groups based on their employment history.Although our original sample included currently employed patients, the following groups were examined as a function of vocational drift: a) Never (n=150), individuals who have never had a job and b) Formerly employed (n=138), individuals who had a job for at least two years in the past but are currently unemployed. Among unemployed patients, we identified those with Short (less than 2 years; n=65), Intermediate (2 to 5 years; n=87), and Extended (more than 5 years; n=136) unemployment.ResultsIn the overall comparison of Formerly employed patients, those with Short and Intermediate duration of unemployment did not differ from each other on any variables and performed better than Extended duration unemployment patients on measures of premorbid intelligence (WRAT, p<.01), processing speed (Symbol coding, p<.01), emotion recognition (BLERT, p<.01 and ER-40, p<.01), theory of mind (Hinting test, p<.05) and hostile cognitive bias (AIHQ Blame, p<.01). Interestingly, patients with Extended unemployment had less depression (BDI total, p<.01) compared to patients who Never worked. The Extended unemployment patients performed worse than the Never employed patients on premorbid intelligence (WRAT, p<.01), processing speed (Symbol coding, p<.05), emotion recognition (BLERT, p<.01 and ER-40, p<.01), theory of mind (Hinting test, p<.05), social inference (TASIT, p<.01), hostile cognitive bias (AIHQ Blame, p<.01), and had higher clinical ratings on PANSS Blunted affect (P<.01) and Poor Rapport (p<.01).DiscussionThe development of long-term unemployment in patients with schizophrenia is associated with multiple neurocognitive and social cognitive deficits, particularly when compared to patients who have never been employed. These deficits were also notable when compared to patients with a shorter duration of unemployment. It is not possible to determine if these long-term unemployed patients always exhibited these deficits, suggesting additional support for vocational drift among patients with schizophrenia. The possible deterioration in neurocognitive and social cognitive performance over time may be driving the development of long-term unemployment in previously employed patients, who in many ways, underperformed compared to patients who had never worked.

Social Exclusion and Labor Market Integration of People with Disabilities. A Case Study for Romania

This empirical study contributes towards identifying the effect of social exclusion on labor market integration of people with disabilities in Romania. Certain categories of individuals with disabilities have longer unemployment duration than others and this empirical study is focused on identifying which variables have a significant influence on exit to job hazard on Romanian labor market. The significant gap between employees without disabilities and employees with disabilities in the Romanian labor market can be explain based on certain influential factors such as: Lower productivity levels, higher training costs, differentiated work schedules, special demands, higher risk of work injuries and work-related accidents, etc. The findings reveal the lack of statistical significance for the differences between median survival time and hazard rates of disabled individuals, a function of their disability. Moreover, our results show that only an age and unemployment allowance has had a significant effect on unemployment duration and exit to a job hazard of educated individuals with disabilities.

Causal inference by quantile regression kink designs

The quantile regression kink design (QRKD) is proposed by empirical researchers, but its causal interpretation remains unknown. We show that the QRKD estimand measures a weighted average of heterogeneous marginal effects at respective conditional quantiles of outcome given a designed kink point. We also derive limit processes for the QRKD estimator to conduct statistical inference on heterogeneous treatment effects using the QRKD. Applying our methods to the Continuous Wage and Benefit History Project (CWBH) data, we find heterogeneous positive causal effects of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations. These effects are larger for individuals with longer unemployment durations.

Unemployment, unemployment duration, and health: selection or causation?

This study aims at disentangling the causal effects of unemployment on physical and mental health from the selection of the unhealthy into unemployment. To identify causal effects, it explores hypotheses concerning how physical and mental health deterioration gain additional momentum with a longer duration of unemployment. In contrast, mere selection into unemployment implies time-constant effects of unemployment on physical and mental health. Fixed-effects models are applied to data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP, 2002-2014, 74,572 observations). Pointing at causal effects of unemployment, the findings show that physical health does not deteriorate before, during or immediately after the period in which individuals lose their jobs, but that deterioration gains momentum later. The effect further depends on age at transition to unemployment. In contrast, a large part of the poorer mental health of the unemployed might be due to the selection of the unhealthy into unemployment; mental health declines even before job loss. Only for people who experience unemployment early in life, mental health deterioration gains some momentum in the time after the transition, indicating a (weak) causal effect of unemployment on mental health for younger individuals.

Improvement of Psychosomatic Rehabilitation after Prestationary Intervention

Aim of the study: Improvement of psychosomatic rehabilitation efforts with prestationary intervention. Method: The study is designed as a prospective and randomisized interventon study including 317 in patients. Result: Most of the patients were women (69.4 %), the mean age was 50.2 years. As measured with the BDI-II patients with prestationary intervention improved more than patients without intervention. The motivation has not been changed significantly in both treatment arms. Various independent cofactors like long duration of unemployment, disablement and patients who apply to pension were identified. Conclusion: Finally a prestationary telephon interview improves the results of psychosomatic rehabilitation measured with BDI.

The Consequences of Long Term Unemployment: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data

It is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are “bad apples” who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that their bad outcomes are a consequence of the extended unemployment they have experienced (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey (CPS) data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these competing explanations. For each person in our sample, we have wage record data that cover the period from 20 quarters before to 11 quarters after the quarter in which the person is observed in the CPS. This gives us rich information about prior and subsequent work histories not available to previous researchers that we use to control for individual heterogeneity that might be affecting subsequent labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This finding is inconsistent with the heterogeneity (“bad apple”) explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found.

Does Age-Dependent Dismissal Protection in Germany Violate European Anti-Discrimination Guidelines?

Age-dependent regulations have been part of the German labor market regulations since long. Following the introduction of European anti-discrimination legislation, they have come under scrutiny in recent years. Nevertheless, while age discrimination is forbidden, age-dependent regulations are not unlawful in every case. Unequal treatment can be qualified under certain conditions, e.g. if labor market risks are pronounced for certain age groups. This contribution takes a look at dismissal protection law and a selection of collective agreements in Germany which are important examples of regulations favoring older workers in case of collective dismissals at the business level. It turns out that these forms of age-dependent dismissal protection are well-qualified when elevated dismissal risks and unemployment risks of older workers are considered. While longer unemployment durations for the older are well-known (and reflected in higher unemployment benefit duration eligibility in Germany), this has never been shown to date for the dismissal risk of older workers in Germany.

The Consequences of Long Term Unemployment: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data

It is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short-term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are “bad apples” who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that their bad outcomes are a consequence of the extended unemployment they have experienced (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey (CPS) data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these competing explanations. For each person in our sample, we have wage record data that cover the period from 20 quarters before to 11 quarters after the quarter in which the person is observed in the CPS. This gives us rich information about prior and subsequent work histories not available to previous researchers that we use to control for individual heterogeneity that might be affecting subsequent labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This finding is inconsistent with the heterogeneity (“bad apple”) explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found.

Assessment of health-related quality of life in end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and non-small-cell lung cancer patients in Serbia.

Under conditions in which palliative care has not yet become part of clinical practice, the differences in palliative care needs between patients with cancer and other life-limiting diseases can yield knowledge that will be very valuable for future planning. The aim of our investigation was to compare health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for patients with end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and those with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Belgrade, Serbia. We also evaluated the influence of demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors on HRQoL for both patient groups. This cross-sectional study included 100 NSCLC patients (stages IIIb and IV) and 100 patients with stage IV COPD. Measures included the SF-36 questionnaire, the EORTC QLQ-C30, the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire, and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). Associations of demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors with QoL were examined using linear regression analyses. The COPD group scored significantly lower compared to NSCLC patients in all SF-36 domains except for bodily pain. Additionally, a significantly higher level of depressive symptoms was observed in COPD patients. A worse physical QoL for COPD patients was independently associated with a longer duration of unemployment, a lack of wage earning, lower Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) scores, and higher levels of depression. A worse mental QoL for COPD patients was related to a longer duration of disease, poorer KPS scores, and higher BDI scores. The independent variables significantly associated with worse physical and mental QoL of NSCLC patients were lower KPS and higher BDI scores. A worse QoL, a significantly higher level of depressive symptoms, and adverse socioeconomic status in the COPD group imposes the need for development of more intensive psychosocial and community support for COPD patients during implementation of palliative care.

Influencing factors of households disadvantaged in post-earthquake life recovery: a case study of the Wenchuan earthquake in China

Post-disaster recovery plans and policies can be better made after understanding which households are in the greatest need of help and support in post-disaster life recovery. In this study, we analyzed influencing factors of households with a disadvantaged status of life recovery, which could then be used as indicators for detecting households in urgent need of help at the beginning of post-disaster recovery. Based on life recovery field survey data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, we found 81 disadvantaged households, identified by the fact that they lagged behind in the post-earthquake life recovery process. Using logit regression, we analyzed the influencing factors of disadvantaged households that may distinguish them from more prosperous ones. The results showed that the lower economic status, longer duration of unemployment, loss of loved ones and the less education are the significant influencing factors of disadvantaged households. Therefore, the poor and unemployed households who are less educated and suffered the trauma of losing loved ones should be made a priority in post-disaster recovery planning and policy making in consideration of their disadvantaged status in life recovery.

Self‐harm in people with epilepsy: A retrospective cohort study

Little is known about self-harm in people with epilepsy, despite suicide being recognized as a leading cause of mortality in this population. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of self-harm in people with epilepsy, and associated demographic and psychosocial factors. Patients presenting to hospital following self-harm between 1994 and 2008 were identified from the Oxford Monitoring System for Self-Harm. Epilepsy diagnosis was confirmed through review of medical records. Demographic features, patient, and self-harm characteristics of 132 people with epilepsy and 9,778 self-harm patients without epilepsy were compared using a regression model, adjusting for age, sex, and repetition. Patients presenting between 1998 and 2008 were followed up for all-cause mortality to the end of 2011. The rate of self-harm per individual with epilepsy was 2.04 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.85-2.25) times that of the comparison group, and time between first and second self-harm events was shorter (hazard ratio 1.86; 1.46-2.38). People with epilepsy were significantly more likely to use antiepileptic medication in overdose, although overall methods of self-harm were similar in the two groups. No significant differences in suicide intent scores or the proportion of patients who died by suicide were found. Previous outpatient psychiatric treatment, longer duration of unemployment, experience of violence, and housing problems were associated with self-harm in people with epilepsy. People with epilepsy who self-harm do so more frequently than other self-harm patients. Clinicians should be aware of this and pay attention to contributory factors as these may enhance risk in this population. A PowerPoint slide summarizing this article is available for download in the Supporting Information section here.

Hostility and unemployment: A two-way relationship?

Previous studies have indicated that personality can lead to selection into unemployment, and that unemployment can adversely influence psychological well-being. This study examined the relationship between trait hostility and unemployment, hypothesizing a two-way relationship. Participants were from the Young Finns study that began in 1980, including 2097 (56% women) individuals followed over 15years from 1992 to 2007. Short-term unemployment within the preceding year was reported in 2001 and current unemployment status was reported in 2007. Long-term history of unemployment was reported in 2001 and 2007. Results showed that high hostility is associated with higher risk of becoming unemployed and having longer unemployment duration. Being unemployed predicted higher hostility in the short-term, but not over the long-term after adjustments for participant's own and parental educational level. Thus, personality factors are involved in the self-selection into unemployment and unemployment can influence short-term personality change.

Duration of unemployment and suicide in Australia over the period 1985–2006: an ecological investigation by sex and age during rising versus declining national unemployment rates

BackgroundThe relationship between unemployment and suicide may be sensitive to demographic factors, national unemployment rates, and length of time without employment. This study investigated these factors in relation to suicide...

ON THE MEASUREMENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

The nature of unemployment is not the same in developing and developed countries. A large proportion of population in the developing countries lives in the rural sector where the agriculture and agriculture based activities are the main sources of livelihood. The work activities in agriculture are quite irregular and sporadic, leading to frequent entry and involuntary withdrawals from the labor force on the part of laborers. The intensity of unemployment or underutilization of labor is likely to vary with the agricultural and related seasonal activities, rainfalls and natural calamities. In contrast, a large proportion of the populations in the developed (rich) countries live in urban areas where most work activities are regular. However, given the technological innovations, the developed nations are characterized by the phenomenon of job construction and destruction leading to frictional unemployment. Since developed economies are also prone to business cycles, the level of unemployment fluctuates over the business cycles, leading to the problem of longer unemployment durations. Thus, the nature of unemployment in developed countries is different from that in the developing countries. A single analytical framework for measuring unemployment is unlikely to capture the unemployment situations in the developed and developing countries. This paper surveys the existing literature and presents separate analytical frameworks for measuring unemployment in developing and developed countries.

Setting It Right: Employment Protection, Labour Reallocation and Productivity

This paper provides a critical review of the recent empirical evidence on the links between regulations affecting the hiring and firing of workers, labour reallocation and productivity growth. It also reviews how workers affected by labour mobility fare and discusses policy options to support them. The upshot is that stringent employment protection has a sizeable negative effect on labour market flows and, through this channel, hinders productivity growth. At the same time, the evidence also shows that while greater labour market reallocation benefits many workers through higher real wages and better careers, some displaced workers lose out via longer unemployment durations and/or lower real wages in post-displacement jobs. In this context, reforms of employment protection should be considered as part of a comprehensive package that also includes an adequate safety net for the unemployed and effective re-employment services.

New Insights into Unemployment Duration and Post Unemployment Earnings in Germany*

Building on non-stationary search theory (Mortensen, 1977; Van den Berg, 1990), this article estimates the effects of UB on unemployment durations and future earnings using unique administrative data in Germany. We apply censored Box–Cox quantile regression. Our results imply that the length of entitlement shows only a weak effect on unemployment duration for entitlement lengths up to 12 months and no effect on post unemployment earnings. There are noticeable effects on exits from unemployment for entitlement lengths above 12 months. A high wage replacement rate for low-wage earners is associated with a longer duration of unemployment and higher post unemployment earnings.

Employment and unemployment duration in less developed regions

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the distribution of labor market experience among the unemployed in a less developed area in Greece (the north‐western region of Epirus), where unemployment has severe detrimental repercussions on the local workforce.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a dataset, obtained through purpose built questionnaires used to assist the local authority in carrying out a regional, pilot, active labor market policy project financed by the European Commission and the Greek Government.FindingsAn ordinary least square regression was applied correcting for incidental truncation, in order to show that the duration of the prior unemployment spell negatively affects the duration of the current employment spell and vice versa, which highlights the phenomenon of an “unemployment trap”. Furthermore, those personal and socioeconomic characteristics which are responsible for causing jobless individuals to be “trapped” in the unemployment state are identified. Workers aged above 45, women, employees in sales and other service occupations, face significantly shorter complete spells of employment, along with longer duration of unemployment, hence suffering from self‐reinforcing unemployment.Originality/valueThe results show that a “scarring effect” appears to be in operation, as the duration of prior unemployment spell has deleterious effects on the duration of the subsequent employment and vice versa. This evidence provides additional insights for policymakers, who design measures for individuals vulnerable to unemployment in the less developed regions of the European Union.