Long-wave Trough Research Articles

Increasing amounts of midwestern Tibetan Plateau vortices and their response to soil moisture distribution coupled with different synoptic systems

AbstractTibetan Plateau Vortices (TPVs) are important synoptic systems that affect precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and downstream weather. By using daily reanalysis data provided by ECMWF and the objective identification methods, the study identified the basic spatiotemporal changes of TPVs, clustered the TPVs by different dynamic circulation types and explored the dynamic circulation background of the classified TPVs in the midwestern TP and their relationship with thermal factors, such as sensible heat and soil moisture. The results show that TPVs in the midwestern TP exhibited an increasing trend from May to August, resulting from the coupling of dynamics with thermal forcing. The related synoptic circulations were divided into four types according to the dynamic circulations: the shortwave trough, the longwave trough, the shear line and the plateau anticyclone type. Among the TPVs, the percentage of TPVs in the shortwave and longwave trough type was relatively large, accounting for 48.7% and 31.5%, respectively, both of which were dominated by the coupling of increased sensible heat and decreased soil moisture. The shear line type was less affected by thermal factors, and mainly driven by dynamic factors, whereas the soil moisture gradient was responsible for the plateau anticyclone type. The simulation experiment also proved this conclusion.

An Analysis of Northward-Moving Tornadoes within an Open Warm Sector Across Eastern Texas

Tornadoes in eastern Texas generally track to the east as predominant westerly upper flow acts on their parent storms. However, an examination of tornadoes from 2000 to 2018 finds that 22% of all tornadoes in the region move in much more northward directions. These tornadoes’ parent storms develop in the open warm sector prior to the arrival of a main linear forcing mechanism (e.g., front, dryline). In fact, some of the more notable tornado outbreaks in recent years across Texas have occurred from northward-moving thunderstorms. This bifurcation of storm/tornado motions is important to understand for forecasting, warning, and messaging of these events. The results show these tornadoes typically occur eastward of large, slow moving, mid to upper-level long-wave troughs and underneath the left quadrant exit-region of an upper-level jet streak. The composite pattern also shows that a low-level jet in eastern Texas, a surface low centered in west-central Texas, and a warm/stationary front extending northeast of the surface low were common for these events. The typical air mass was indicative of weak instability, low convective inhibition, and high shear. Radar analysis of the northerly moving, tornadic storms showed mesocyclonic circulations with smaller diameters and lower rotational shear when compared with tornadic storms that moved in an easterly direction.

Meteorological Analysis of the 2021 Extreme Wildfires in Greece: Lessons Learned and Implications for Early Warning of the Potential for Pyroconvection

The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wildfires that ignited and spread in early August. Common to these wildfires was the occurrence of violent pyroconvection. This work presents a meteorological analysis of this outbreak of extreme pyroconvective wildfires. Our analysis shows that dry and warm antecedent weather preconditioned fuels in the fire-affected areas, creating a fire environment that alone could effectively support intense wildfire activity. Analysis of surface conditions revealed that the ignition and the most active spread of all wildfires coincided with the most adverse fire weather since the beginning of the fire season. Further, the atmospheric environment was conducive to violent pyroconvection, as atmospheric instability gradually increased amid the breakdown of an upper-air ridge ahead of an approaching long-wave trough. In summary, we highlight that the severity and extent of the 2021 Greek wildfires were not surprising considering the fire weather potential for the period when they ignited. Continuous monitoring of the large- and local-scale conditions that promote extreme fire behavior is imperative for improving Greece’s capacity for managing extreme wildfires.

Long-wave trough and ridge controlling of the water vapor transport to the Tibet Plateau by the tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in May

Long-wave trough and ridge controlling of the water vapor transport to the Tibet Plateau by the tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in May

Synoptic–Dynamic and Airmass Characteristics Distinguishing Long- and Short-Duration Freezing Rain Events in the South-Central United States

AbstractThough prolonged freezing rain events are rare, they can result in substantial damage when they occur. While freezing rain occurs less frequently in the south-central United States than in some regions of North America, a large number of extremely long-duration events lasting at least 18 h have been observed there. We explore the key synoptic–dynamic conditions that lead to these extreme events through a comparison with less severe short-duration events. We produce synoptic–dynamic composites and 7-day backward trajectories for parcels ending in the warm and cold layers for each event category. The extremely long-duration events are preferentially associated with a deeper and more stationary 500-hPa longwave trough centered over the southwestern United States at event onset. This trough supports sustained flow of warm, moist air from within the planetary boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico northward into the warm layer. The short-duration cases are instead characterized by a more transient upper-level trough axis centered over the south-central U.S. region at onset. Following event onset, rapid passage of the trough leads to quasigeostrophic forcing for descent and the advection of cold, dry air that erodes the warm layer and ends precipitation. While trajectories ending in the cold layer are very similar between the two categories, those ending in the warm layer have a longer history over the Gulf of Mexico in the extreme cases compared with the short-duration ones, resulting in warmer and moister onset warm layers.

A Synoptic Climatology of Spring Dryline Convection in the Southern Great Plains

AbstractA dataset of drylines within a region of the southern Great Plains was constructed to investigate the large-scale environments associated with the initiation of deep moist convection. Drylines were identified using NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center surface analyses for all April, May, and June days 2006–15. Doppler radar and visible and infrared satellite imagery were used to identify convective drylines, where deep, moist convection was deemed to have been associated with the dryline circulation. Approximately 60% of drylines were convective, with initiation most frequently occurring between 2000 and 2100 UTC. Composite synoptic analyses were created of 179 convective and 104 nonconvective dryline days. The composites featured an upper-level long-wave trough to the west of the Rockies and a ridge extending across the northern and eastern United States. At the surface, the composites featured a broad surface cyclone over western Texas and southerly flow over the south-central states. Convective drylines featured more amplified upper-level flow, associated with a deeper trough in the western United States and a stronger downstream ridge than nonconvective drylines up to 5 days preceding a dryline event. By the day of a dryline event, the convective composite features greater low-level specific humidity and higher CAPE than the nonconvective composite. These results demonstrate that synoptic-scale processes over several days help create conditions conducive to deep, moist convection along the dryline.

Analysis of the Gale in the Bohai Sea Caused by Tropical Cyclone “Yagi”

In this study, we analyzed the meteorological processes associated with 2018 tropical cyclone No. 14, “Yagi.” TC Yagi continued moving northeastward after losing its numerical designation from the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) because of weakening and then restrengthened when it moved over the Bohai Sea, inducing an ocean gale on 14-15 August 2018. The results of our investigation revealed that the continued northeastward movement of Yagi on 14 August was related to the divergence of the upper-level westerly jet stream, the northward shift of the subtropical high in the midtroposphere, as well as the steering flow and asymmetrical air flow around the disturbance itself in the lower troposphere. The enhancement of Yagi over the Bohai Sea on the night of 14 August was related to the decrease of friction over the ocean and the increase of diabatic heating from the sea surface flux. The wind speed increased to a maximum when the depression moved over the Bohai Sea, an occurrence that was not only due to the enhancement of the cyclone itself but also due to the flow of cold air from high latitudes along the north side of the Bohai Sea. The behavior of the cold air was related to the shift of the convergence zone in the upper-level westerly jet at 200 hPa, long-wave troughs and ridges at 500 hPa, and terrain effects. Thus, the gale development in the Bohai Sea was due to both the enhancement of tropical cyclone Yagi after it moved over the ocean and the flow of cold air from high latitudes.

An Investigation of Cold-Season Short-Wave Troughs in the Great Lakes Region and Their Concurrence with Lake-Effect Clouds

AbstractThe downwind shores of the Laurentian Great Lakes region often receive prolific amounts of lake-effect snowfall during the cold season (October–March). The location and intensity of this snowfall can be influenced by upper-tropospheric features such as short-wave troughs. A 7-yr cold-season climatology of 500-hPa short-wave troughs was developed for the Great Lakes region. A total of 607 short-wave troughs were identified, with an average of approximately 87 short waves per cold season. Five classes of short-wave troughs were identified on the basis of their movement through the Great Lakes region. This short-wave trough dataset was subsequently compared with the lake-effect cloud-band climatology created by N. F. Laird et al. in 2017 to determine how frequently short-wave troughs occurred concurrently with lake-effect cloud bands. Of the 607 short-wave troughs identified, 380 were concurrent with lake-effect clouds. Over 65% of these 380 short-wave troughs occurred with a lake-effect cloud band on at least four of the five Great Lakes. Short-wave troughs that rotated around the base of a long-wave trough were found to have the highest frequency of concurrence. In general, concurrence was most likely during the middle cold-season months. Further, Lake Michigan featured the highest number of concurrent events, and Lake Erie featured the fewest. It is evident that short-wave troughs are a ubiquitous feature near the Great Lakes during the cold season and have the potential to impart substantial impacts on lake-effect snowbands.

Objective Identification of Trough Lines Using Gridded Wind Field Data

An objective method was developed to analyze longwave and shortwave trough lines in wind field data using different methods, given that these trough lines were researched in different ways. Longwave trough lines were analyzed by locating the cyclonic center and filtering candidate trough points simultaneously; the candidate longwave trough points were then traced based on distance and angle conditions. Next, candidate shortwave trough points were determined based on angular deflection and vorticity data, which were clustered and fitted to a curve for extraction. This method was applied to wind field data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to analyze trough lines in East Asia and South Asia. The experimental results show that our method can effectively identify trough lines by comparing them with manual analysis results. The statistical results indicate that the method more precisely identifies longwave trough lines than shortwave trough lines, and that trough lines during the fall and winter are more accurately and effectively identified than those during the spring and summer.

WRF simulations of two extreme snowfall events associated with contrasting extratropical cyclones over the western and central Himalaya

AbstractTwo extreme snowfall events associated with extratropical cyclones, one interacting with the western and one with the central Himalaya, are simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over 8 days. One event in January 1999 was driven by a longwave trough over west Asia, with the cyclone becoming terrain‐locked in the western Himalayan notch. Another event in March 2006 was driven by a trough further south and east, facilitating the passage of two successive cyclones along the entire Himalayan ridge, drawing moisture from warm tropical waters. These flow patterns are typical for extreme winter precipitation in the western and central Himalaya, respectively, but were amplified in these two cases. In the WRF simulations, snowfall is confined to the western Himalaya in the January simulation, while a near‐continuous band of accumulated snowfall along the Himalayan ridge forms in the March simulation. Precipitation rate throughout both simulations is largely determined by cross‐barrier moisture flux, which is generally greatest wherever the cyclonic winds converge on the mountains at each time. However, the March 2006 simulation evolves in an environment with greater convective instability upwind of and moisture transport toward the mountains than in the January 1999 event. Hence, greater precipitation rates and more solid snowbands are generated in the March than in the January simulation. However, due to the terrain‐locking of the cyclone in the January event, individual locations receive more persistent snowfall, so that the greatest 8 day accumulations are similar between the two events, although these accumulations are more widespread in the March event.

Modeling studies of landfalling atmospheric rivers and orographic precipitation over northern California

This study investigated a slow-moving long-wave trough that brought four Atmospheric Rivers (AR) “episodes” within a week to the U.S. West Coast from 28 November to 3 December 2012, bringing over 500 mm to some coastal locations. The highest 6- and 12-hourly rainfall rates (131 and 195 mm, respectively) over northern California occurred during Episode 2 along the windward slopes of the coastal Santa Lucia Mountains. Surface observations from NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Testbed sites in California, available GPS Radio Occultation (RO) vertical profiles from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) satellite mission were both assimilated into WRF-ARW via eight combinations of observation nudging, grid nudging, and 3DVAR to improve the upstream moisture characteristics and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) during this event. Results during the 6-hourly rainfall maximum period in Episode 2 revealed that the models underestimated the observed 6-hourly rainfall rate maximum on the windward slopes of the Santa Lucia mountain range. The grid-nudging experiments smoothed out finer mesoscale details in the inner domain that may affect the final QPFs. Overall, the experiments that did not use grid nudging were more accurate in terms of less mean absolute error. In the time evolution of the accumulated rainfall forecast, the observation nudging experiment that included RAOB and COSMIC GPS RO data demonstrated results with the least error for the north central Coastal Range and the 3DVAR cold-start experiment demonstrated the least error for the windward Sierra Nevada. The experiment that combined 3DVAR cold start, observation nudging, and grid nudging showed the most error in the rainfall forecasts. Results from this study further suggest that including surface observations at frequencies less than 3 h for observation nudging and having cycling intervals less than 3 h for 3DVAR cycling would be more beneficial for short-to-medium range mesoscale QPFs during high-impact AR events over northern California.

Characteristics of major ice storms in the central United States

A 30-yr (1979–2009) climatology of major ice storms with 19.05 mm (0.75 in) ice accumulation or greater across the central United States is presented. An examination of the United States Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Ice Storm Database, in conjunction with National Climatic Data Center Storm Data, revealed 20 (out of 51) ice storms during the period which satisfied the selection criteria herein. Using the General Meteorological Package with the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset, system-relative composites using both traditional (i.e., mean) and probabilistic (i.e., frequency analysis of median, quartiles, and threshold exceedance) composite-analysis measures for the major ice storms were created. The composite analysis was computed at start, maximum coverage, and end times to depict the evolution of features used to diagnose the synoptic and mesoscale environment potentially favorable for major ice storms within the central United States. At the maximum-coverage time, the composite analysis indicates the presence of sub-freezing surface temperatures to the north of a southwest-to-northeast oriented quasi-stationary front below a strong 850-hPa jet streak. The low-level jet streak bisects the quasi-stationary front and is enhanced by the direct thermal circulation associated with an upper-level jet streak. These features are responsible for supplying warm and moist air into the elevated warm layer, which provides an environment to completely melt frozen precipitation. An upper-level long-wave trough is anchored over the southwestern United States and there is some evidence that it leads to short-wave troughs ejecting into the plains. These troughs may be responsible for multiple rounds of enhanced vertical motion, precipitation, and freezing rain. Finally, an analysis of probabilistic measures of the 300- and 850-hPa jet streaks and elevated warm-layer characteristics indicates the importance of these fields in major ice storms in this region.

An assessment of waterspout occurrence in the Eastern Adriatic basin in 2010: Synoptic and mesoscale environment and forecasting method

In this paper we performed a comprehensive analysis of 19 waterspout events that occurred in the Eastern Adriatic basin in 2010. Data were collected from the synoptic and climatological weather stations and from eyewitness reports from newspapers and the internet. The geographical and temporal distributions of the waterspouts, as well as the absolute frequencies of four synoptic types relevant to waterspout development (south-west flow (SW), long-wave trough (LW), closed low (CLOSED) and short-wave trough (SWT)), are presented. The synoptic and mesoscale weather conditions were analyzed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, satellite images, data from synoptic and automatic weather stations and atmospheric soundings. To test waterspouts for thunderstorm relations the LINET network sensor data were used to infer lightning activity. Because thermodynamic instability indices are usually insufficient for forecasting waterspout activity, the performance of the Szilagyi Waterspout Nomogram (SWN) and the Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) were tested using the ALADIN model. The results of the analyses of the 2010 cases show that the SWN successfully forecasted 15 out of 19 events (hit rate of 78.9%). This is a significant hit rate but is not as high as in the work of Keul et al. (2009), in which 96% of the Adriatic cases satisfied the nomogram. In addition, four selected waterspout cases, which represent the four basic synoptic types, were analyzed in detail to provide an overview of favorable atmospheric environments for waterspouts throughout the year.

Synoptic–Dynamic Climatology of Large-Scale Cyclones in the North Pacific

Abstract A climatology of large-scale, persistent cyclonic flow anomalies over the North Pacific was constructed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) global reanalysis data for the cold season (November–March) for 1977–2003. These large-scale cyclone (LSC) events were identified as those periods for which the filtered geopotential height anomaly at a given analysis point was at least 100 m below its average for the date for at least 10 days. This study identifies a region of maximum frequency of LSC events at 45°N, 160°W [key point 1 (KP1)] for the entire period. This point is somewhat to the east of regions of maximum height variability noted in previous studies. A second key point (37.5°N, 162.5°W) was defined as the maximum in LSC frequency for the period after November 1988. The authors show that the difference in location of maximum LSC frequency is linked to a climate regime shift at about that time. LSC events occur with a maximum frequency in the period from November through January. A composite 500-hPa synoptic evolution, constructed relative to the event onset, suggests that the upper-tropospheric precursor for LSC events emerges from a quasi-stationary long-wave trough positioned off the east coast of Asia. In the middle and lower troposphere, the events are accompanied by cold thickness advection from a thermal trough over northeastern Asia. The composite mean sea level evolution reveals a cyclone that deepens while moving from the coast of Asia into the central Pacific. As the cyclone amplifies, it slows down in the central Pacific and becomes nearly stationary within a day of onset. Following onset, at 500 hPa, a stationary wave pattern, resembling the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern, emerges with a ridge immediately downstream (over western North America) and a trough farther downstream (from the southeast coast of the United States into the western North Atlantic). The implications for the resulting sensible weather and predictability of the flow are discussed. An adjoint-derived sensitivity study was conducted for one of the KP1 cases identified in the climatology. The results provide dynamical confirmation of the LSC precursor identification for the events. The upper-tropospheric precursor is seen to play a key role not only in the onset of the lower-tropospheric height falls and concomitant circulation increases, but also in the eastward extension of the polar jet across the Pacific. The evolution of the forecast sensitivities suggest that LSC events are not a manifestation of a modal instability of the time mean flow, but rather the growth of a favorably configured perturbation on the flow.

The Behavior of Synoptic-Scale Errors in the Eta Model

Abstract A previous study of the mean spatial bias errors associated with operational forecast models motivated an examination of the mechanisms responsible for these biases. One hypothesis for the cause of these errors is that mobile synoptic-scale phenomena are partially responsible. This paper explores this hypothesis using 24-h forecasts from the operational Eta Model and an experimental version of the Eta run with Kain–Fritsch convection (EtaKF). For a sample of 44 well-defined upper-level short-wave troughs arriving on the west coast of the United States, 70% were underforecast (as measured by the 500-hPa geopotential height), a likely result of being undersampled by the observational network. For a different sample of 45 troughs that could be tracked easily across the country, consecutive model runs showed that the height errors associated with 44% of the troughs generally decreased in time, 11% increased in time, 18% had relatively steady errors, 2% were uninitialized entering the West Coast, and 24% exhibited some other kind of behavior. Thus, landfalling short-wave troughs were typically underforecast (positive errors, heights too high), but these errors tended to decrease as they moved across the United States, likely a result of being better initialized as the troughs became influenced by more upper-air data. Nevertheless, some errors in short-wave troughs were not corrected as they fell under the influence of supposedly increased data amount and quality. These results indirectly show the effect that the amount and quality of observational data has on the synoptic-scale errors in the models. On the other hand, long-wave ridges tended to be underforecast (negative errors, heights too low) over a much larger horizontal extent. These results are confirmed in a more systematic manner over the entire dataset by segregating the model output at each grid point by the sign of the 500-hPa relative vorticity. Although errors at grid points with positive relative vorticity are small but positive in the western United States, the errors become large and negative farther east. Errors at grid points with negative relative vorticity, on the other hand, are generally negative across the United States. A large negative bias observed in the Eta and EtaKF over the southeast United States is believed to be due to an error in the longwave radiation scheme interacting with water vapor and clouds. This study shows that model errors may be related to the synoptic-scale flow, and even large-scale features such as long-wave troughs can be associated with significant large-scale height errors.

Waterspouts of the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Sea and their meteorological environment

The synoptic and mesoscale conditions associated with waterspout occurrence in the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Sea are examined in an attempt to quantitatively assess the meteorological environment favourable to the development of waterspouts. For this study, synoptic circulation patterns have been examined for 28 waterspout events in the central-eastern Mediterranean. The waterspouts were reported within the summer and fall of 2002, from July to November, a period of unusually high whirlwind activity. The Adriatic was most active during July, August and September and the Ionian and Aegean during September, October and November. Of the examined waterspout cases, 13 out of the total of 28 were found to be fair-weather waterspouts, while 15 represent tornadic events. For waterspout days, the frequency and distribution of four basic synoptic types, namely, south-west flow (SW), long-wave trough (LW), closed low (CLOSED) and short-wave trough (SWT), were investigated. The particular synoptic features that contributed to the development of waterspout activity were examined, based on five selected waterspout case studies. The mesoscale environment was explored using thermodynamic indices, moisture and wind parameters as derived by operational soundings from the nearest sites (preferably upwind) and closest in time to the waterspout occurrences. The results present an analysis of waterspout types in conjunction to thermodynamic and wind parameters for the purpose of determining synoptic patterns and mesoscale conditions most relevant to waterspout occurrences in these sea areas of the Mediterranean.

Influence of Atmospheric Asymmetries on the Intensification of GFDL Model Forecast Hurricanes

Abstract Hurricanes Bertha of 1996 and Erin of 2001 both intensified rapidly during part of their time over the North Atlantic. A piecewise potential vorticity (PV) inversion is applied to model output from GFDL hurricane model forecasts to determine the contributions of atmospheric features in the hurricanes’ environment to their intensification. The diagnosis indicates that Hurricane Bertha’s rapid intensification was directly augmented by an upper-level trough to the north. The significant positive impact of the trough provides quantitative confirmation of the inference of other authors. By contrast environmental interactions associated with troughs to the east and west of Hurricane Erin did not contribute directly to its rapid intensification. The implication of this result is that factors other than the troughs, including sea surface temperature, were sufficient to effect Hurricane Erin’s strengthening. Enhanced upper-level outflow concentrated northeast of the hurricane’s center that was associated with upper-level PV features to the north of Erin, including those ahead of the long-wave trough to its west, could have had some indirect contribution to its intensification. The present authors’ previous piecewise inversion applied to a model forecast of Hurricane Opal of 1995 indicated that an approaching upper-level trough did not significantly contribute to the hurricane’s lower-tropospheric intensification. The conclusions of this paper demonstrate that this result is neither an exception nor the rule.

A Comparison of Two Banded, Heavy Snowstorms with Very Different Synoptic Settings

Abstract Two banded, heavy snowstorms that occurred over the northern mid-Atlantic region are compared and contrasted. On 6–7 January 2002, a narrow, intense band of heavy snow was observed, along with several other weaker bands, embedded within a large area of moderate snow. On 19–20 January 2002, a single, broader band of heavy snow was observed, embedded within a broken area of light snow. The synoptic-scale settings associated with these two storms were strikingly dissimilar. In the first case, strong quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent was present just to the south of the heavy snowfall area. A highly amplified longwave trough was located over the Mississippi River valley, while a compact shortwave trough moved northward, up the east side of the longwave trough. The result was robust cyclogenesis off of the mid-Atlantic coast. In the second case, the relatively weaker QG forcing for ascent was located much farther southwest of the snowband. The flow aloft was much less amplified, with weaker cyclogenesis occurring off of the mid-Atlantic coast. Analysis of the frontal scale environments for both cases indicated that the snowbands were each associated with the collocation of midtropospheric frontogenesis and reduced stability. In the first case, evidence is shown that a layer of potential symmetric instability (PSI) was located just above a deep, sloping zone of frontogenesis, in the presence of deep near-saturated conditions. In the second case, evidence is shown that a layer of potential instability (PI), associated with rapidly decreasing relative humidity with height, was located just above a shallow, sloping zone of frontogenesis. In addition, it is shown that a particularly favorable thermal environment for snowflake growth and accumulation became collocated with the heavy snowband. It is hypothesized that the differences in the intensity and horizontal extent of the bands observed with these two events resulted from differing atmospheric responses associated with the areal extent of large-scale and frontogenetical forcing, moisture availability, degree of instability, and specific thermal profiles.

The δ18O in the Guliya shallow ice core during the prevailing summer monsoons and sea-air interactions

The correlations of the δ18Omax in the shallow ice core from the Guliya ice cap on the Tibetan Plateau with the global sea surface temperatures (SST) and height at the 500 hPa over the Northern Hemisphere were analyzed. The correlated regions on oceans that have a significant influence on the δ18Omax in the Guliya ice core are all located in ocean currents, or convergent regions of currents. They are the eastern Equatorial Pacific, the Northern Pacific Current, the Hot Pool in the eastern Indian Ocean, the Mozambique Current, the Northern Atlantic Current, the Canary Current and the Atlantic Equatorial Current. The δ18Omax in the Guliya ice core has negative correlations with the SST located in the lower latitudes, and positive correlations with the SST in the middle latitudes. The correlated areas at the 500 hPa that have a great impact on the δ18Omax are located in the subtropical highs over the mid-low-latitude oceans and the long-wave trough area over Balkhash Lake, where there are marked negative correlations between the heights in those areas and the δ18Omax. The influencing mechanism is displayed by the diversity of the vapor origins transported to the Guliya region. The strengths of the European ridge and the ridge over Baikal Lake have notable positive correlations with the δ18Omax. The two systems indirectly influence the vapor transportation towards the Guliya region by the adjustment of long-wave trough and ridge.

Combined global climate model and mesoscale model simulations of Antarctic climate

Simulations of high southern latitudes with the high‐resolution, limited‐area Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model, version 4 (MM4), examine the impact of a moist physics parameterization and the success of a one‐way nesting inside the global NCAR community climate model, version 2 (CCM2). Discretization is by 100 km resolution in the horizontal and 15 or 16 levels in the vertical. Initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are provided by analyses of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts or CCM2 simulations. Comparisons of dry and moist simulations of an austral winter month, June 1988, are used to examine the role of clouds in the regional meteorology. A cloud‐free MM4 simulation with boundary conditions provided by CCM2 run 422 indicates that the one‐way nesting of the mesoscale model can produce significant differences in the model output, including an improvement in the location of one longwave trough, reduced cold bias, and a more detailed surface wind field. The improved location of the longwave trough over the Atlantic Ocean is hypothesized to result from blocking induced by the reduced cold bias. The nested simulation is sensitive to the forcing at the horizontal boundaries. Consequently, proper location of troughs and ridges at the boundaries is required for the model to well represent all the major troughs and ridges inside the domain. The addition of moist physics to the mesoscale simulations tends to improve the quality of the simulated fields over the Southern Ocean. In particular, the intensity of the circumpolar trough is increased. Over Antarctica, serious deficiencies are found in the simulations with moist physics. Excessive moisture is apparently stored in the simulated clouds leading to excessive atmospheric back radiation and, consequently, excessive temperatures at the surface and higher up in the troposphere.