Long-term Water Supply Planning Research Articles

GIS-AHP Ensembles for Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Site Selection Processes: Application to Groundwater Management under Climate Change

A possible adaptation pathway for water suppliers in Germany who face a climatically driven increase in water stress is the development of aquifers which are not used at their full potential. However, identifying suitable sites for aquifer development can go along with severe conflict potential due to the great variety of stakeholders who are involved in the decision-making process. We approach this multi-actor and multi-criteria decision-making problem by developing a geoinformation system-based analytic hierarchy process ensemble (GIS-AHP ensemble). As opposed to the classic GIS-AHP method that yields ratings of site suitability based on a single expert evaluation, the here proposed new GIS-AHP ensemble method respects multiple expert evaluations and allows for quantifying the robustness of yielded site ratings in multi-actor contexts, which helps to mitigate conflict potential. The respectively derived GIS-AHP ensemble site ratings for northwest Germany are successfully checked for plausibility in the framework of the study by using long-established groundwater abstraction areas as indicators for good site conditions. The GIS-AHP ensemble site ratings are further tested regarding their usability for long-term water supply planning by integrating a groundwater recharge scenario under climate change for the period 2020 to 2050. The proposed GIS-AHP ensemble methodology proves useful in the given case study for fostering integrated environmental decision-making and exhibits a high transferability to other, thematically differing site selection problems.

Dynamic water pricing and the risk adjusted user cost (RAUC)

Abstract We formalise a dynamic water pricing model as a tool for increasing social surplus in short-term water allocations and long-term water supply planning and investments. We calculate, in monetary terms, the intertemporal risk that current water uses impose on future water availability, termed as the Risk-Adjusted User Cost (RAUC), given multi-period droughts. Our model is calibrated to the water supply system in the Australian Capital Territory. Results show that the RAUC may be a substantial proportion of the cost of supplying water, and incorporating it in the water price can result in long-term welfare gains.

Estimation and investigation of consumptive water use in residential area—Case cities in Nebraska, U.S.A

This research provides important understanding of the total and consumptive water uses of residences and green spaces of urban settings in Nebraska. The census block level estimation and analysis were carried out in three case cities in Nebraska including Lincoln, Grand Island, and Sidney. Ordinary least square regression models were established between the explanatory factors and total water use and consumptive water use. In residential category, there were strong correlations between population/landscape area and total water use. Landscape area was found in high correlation with consumptive water use in City of Sidney. Total and consumptive water use were highly correlated with landscape area in green space category. In consideration of sizable yards and lower population density, small cities may consume more water on a per capita basis and our spatial pattern analysis showed that high water use blocks clustered in suburban areas with large landscape areas while low water use blocks clustered in downtown areas. This study introduces a feasible yet effective method for water resources managers to estimate consumptive water uses in residential areas. The developed linear models are beneficial for predicting future water demand and long-term water supply planning.

Economics of alternative water resources with an emphasis on aquifer storage and recovery

Abstract This paper demonstrates a comprehensive methodology for assessing the comparison of unit water production cost (UWPC) between alternative water resources including desalination, freshwater reservoirs, single-purpose dams, underground dams and two indirect water in take technologies – riverbank filtration and aquifer storage and recovery (ASR). This study considers the Monte Carlo simulation as the only viable solution to tackle this critical question, which can be used to evaluate the economics of diverse water supply schemes incorporating those alternatives and prepare long-term water supply planning. Built upon actual and conceptual cost data for each alternative, total project cost and operation and management cost estimation models for each alternative were developed and used for generating mean UWPC information using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. The mean UWPC differences between alternative water supply schemes were found to be statistically significant and the simulation results revealed that ASR is the lowest-cost option to provide drinkable water for both cases when a conventional water treatment plant (WTP) and advanced WTP were used as a connected post-treatment process.

Long-term water supply planning in an Australian coastal city: Dams or desalination?

Water resource managers and planners are continually involved in defining and evaluating alternative policies to better meet changing water supply conditions and the expectations of society. To undertake such long-term water supply planning, this study developed a novel integrated system dynamics model to combine economic, social and scientific variables and considerations within the planning horizon. Extensive sensitivity analysis for these variables was considered in this long term water resource planning process. The analysis suggests that over a longer time horizon, desalination provides a more viable, cost effective and secure bulk water supply alternative when compared to building large rain-dependent dams.

Industrial Water Requirement Forecast Model and Application Based on PCA-BP Neutral Network

ndustrial water requirement is usually influenced by multiple factors, among which have close relations, which can cause distortion of some forecasting results, and weaken the suitability of some formulas. To this end, we adopt BP neural network model, use principal component analysis (PCA) to analyze the relationships between variables of the model to solve the related issues between the various factors, in order to set up forecast model of industrial water requirement and take Zhengzhou City as an example to analyze. The results showed that this method could take the influenced factors of industrial water requirement into consideration comprehensively, offer higher and more accurate forecasts, and provide the reference framework for integrated planning of regional water resources and long-term water supply planning.

Research progress of socio-economic water cycle in China

China has made great progress in the study of socio-economic water cycle. She has completed national water resources appraisement and medium to long-term water supply planning. She has been engaging in study on water-deficient regions in North China and Northwest China for about half a century. For solving water shortage problem in northern China, she has put forward the famous South-to-North Water Transferring Projects, which has been set as one of the four biggest national projects in the Tenth Five-Year-Plan period although there are still debates. For promoting water use efficiency, China has been reforming her water management system, including water right system and water price system. There has already been a case of water right purchase. China has also done a lot of research on the interaction between human activity, water and ecosystem. For meeting the need of sustainability and coordinating water resources development and environmental protection, the study of ecological water requirement became very hot in recent years. There are three focuses of socio-economic water cycle study now in China: water transfer projects from the south to the north, water resources management and ecological water requirement.