Long-term Unemployment Rate Research Articles

Evaluation of OECD Countries in Terms of Better Life Index According to Bulut Index

Background: The "Better Life Index", first developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2011, includes many criteria from the functioning of public services to environmental wealth, from security services to individual and social well-being. Method: The performances of OECD countries according to the decision criteria that constitute the Better Life Index has been evaluated with Bulut Index (BI) method, which is a multi-criteria decision-making method. Normalized Maximum Values (NMV) method, one of the objective weighting methods, was used to determine weights of decision criteria. Findings: Among the indicators of the Better Life Index, the murder rate per 100 thousand population ranks first in terms of criterion weight. In the study, due to the analysis and evaluation made with Bulut Index, Switzerland ranked first among OECD countries with 82.28 points in the welfare and well-being index ranking. On the other hand, Türkiye ranked fourth from the bottom among OECD countries. Conclusion: Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that urgent and necessary measures be taken on homicide rates, long-term unemployment rates and air pollution criteria. The lack of criteria regarding civic participation, work-life balance and income status constitute limitations of the study. In future studies, it is especially recommended that other researchers include these variables.

Revealing the New Nexus in Urban Unemployment Dynamics: The Relationship between Institutional Variables and Long-Term Unemployment in Colombia

Abstract The aim of this study is to assess the impact of various institutional variables on the long-term unemployment rate (LAPU) in the Colombian urban labor market. Vector autoregressive models are estimated using microdata from the Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH), which has national coverage. Monthly data were analyzed for the 13 major capital cities and their metropolitan areas, as well as for the group of 11 intermediate capital cities, resulting in a total of 24 main urban labor markets in Colombia. The dataset includes unionized individuals, individuals with verbal and written contracts, non-labor income, unemployed individuals with subsidies, and individuals receiving severance payments. The results indicate that the growth in the number of unionized employees and non-labor income contributes to increasing the persistence in the duration of unemployment in Colombia. A key finding is that a positive growth in the ratio – gap between individuals with written contracts versus verbal contracts reduces LAPU. This provides evidence of how reducing information asymmetries in the Colombian labor market can improve labor market outcomes and contribute to medium- and long-term social welfare in Colombian urban centers.

Association of socioeconomic disadvantage and ethnicity with perinatal neonatal, and infant mortality in Slovakia

BackgroundInfant mortality rates are reliable indices of the child and general population health status and health care delivery. The most critical factors affecting infant mortality are socioeconomic status and ethnicity. The aim of this study was to assess the association between socioeconomic disadvantage, ethnicity, and perinatal, neonatal, and infant mortality in Slovakia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsThe associations between socioeconomic disadvantage (educational level, long-term unemployment rate), ethnicity (the proportion of the Roma population) and mortality (perinatal, neonatal, and infant) in the period 2017–2022 were explored, using linear regression models.ResultsThe higher proportion of people with only elementary education and long-term unemployed, as well as the higher proportion of the Roma population, increases mortality rates. The proportion of the Roma population had the most significant impact on mortality in the selected period between 2017 and 2022, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022).ConclusionsLife in segregated Roma settlements is connected with the accumulation of socioeconomic disadvantage. Persistent inequities between Roma and the majority population in Slovakia exposed by mortality rates in children point to the vulnerabilities and exposures which should be adequately addressed by health and social policies.

The Longer, the Weaker? Considering the Role of Long-Term Unemployment in an ‘Original’ Phillips Curve

ABSTRACT A recent explanation of hysteresis suggests that downward wage rigidity may be caused by long-term unemployment as individuals who are detached from the labor market are not good inflation fighters. Based on this hypothesis, some scholars have attempted to estimate the Phillips curve and the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) either by including only short-term unemployment or by taking into account weighted measures of unemployment duration. This essay investigates whether the conclusion that long-term unemployment is less relevant to the inflation path than short-term unemployment is supported by data. To do this, we consider the short- and long-term unemployment rates jointly in a Phillips curve, while also considering institutional variables and without using any measure of the unemployment gap or the NAIRU. Using panel data for 25 OECD countries for the period 1970–2016, we test whether there is a statistically significant difference between the coefficients of short- and long-term unemployment rates in this version of the Phillips curve. Our findings indicate that there is no significant difference between long and short-term unemployment rates in wage-setting, and provide a critique of the mainstream explanation of the hysteresis mechanism.

The Influence of Labor Market Determinants on Economic Inequality Measured by Gini Coefficient in Montenegro

In this paper an analysis is conducted with the aim of a better understanding how the labour market and income inequality in society are connected, examining the relationships between the variables that describe economic inequality and the labour market in Montenegro. The analysis involves the use of econometric techniques and VAR models, which, with the use of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, best reflect the impact of selected labour market variables on economic inequality. The results of the analysis show that the variables of the labour market, namely the unemployment rate and the long-term unemployment rate, proved to be significant in explaining economic inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient. The results of the research can be useful to various researchers dealing with the issue of economic inequality in Montenegro, providing an additional mechanism for analyzing flows and predicting the future values of the determinants of economic inequality. The results also enable a different approach in the analysis of the labour market and the economic inequality in Montenegrin society, which can serve as a basis for many future analyses.

Remittances, Nonlabor Income as a Source of Hysteresis in Unemployment in Colombia, 2010–2020

AbstractThis study seeks to determine the impact of remittances and nonlabor income on the duration of unemployment, and therefore on the hysteresis phenomenon in Colombia for the period between January 2010 and January 2021. The long-term unemployment rate in Colombia (LAPU) is calculated, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is subsequently estimated to evaluate the impact of remittances and nonlabor income on the LAPU. The results suggest that the increase in nonlabor income significantly affected LAPU in Colombia in the period analyzed. The growth of remittances instead turned out to positively and significantly impact LAPU only during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This suggests that remittances have become a fundamental income in times of crisis that allow for financing the search for work for a longer period of time, thus increasing the duration of unemployment and generating a hysteresis effect.

The Effect of Digitalization on Youth Unemployment for EU Countries: Treat or Threat?

Unemployment affects approximately 73 million young people, representing 17.9% of the global youth workforce in 2022. Although there are several policies to prevent youth unemployment, digitalization seems to be one of the strongest. This research focuses on the impact of the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) on youth unemployment in 27 European countries from 2018 to 2021. For the research, the “Digital Economy and Society Index” was measured with four sub-dimensions. These were “connectivity”, “digital public services”, “human capital”, and “digital technology integration”. Additionally, “Youth Unemployment” was measured with three sub-dimensions. These included the “long-term youth unemployment rate”, “not in education, employment, or training rate”, and “youth unemployment rate”. The analyses were conducted using SmartPLS 4 and the results showed that the DESI reduces youth unemployment each year. According to the findings, the indicators of DESI can be an effective strategy for combating youth unemployment in European countries.

Radna snaga kao element ekonomije

According to MIP (Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure) indicators, it can be concluded that there have been positive changes in the labour market over the past decade in Serbia. Most of the indicators, such as the activity rate, youth unemployment rate, and long-term unemployment rate, remained stable during this period. However, these indicators also showed that the situation in the Serbian labour market was considerably less favourable than in EU countries, although more favourable than in Western Balkan countries. The following text will delve into the main characteristics of the labour market in Serbia and the changes that have occurred over the past decade. We will explore the key causes and consequences of imbalances, with the first part of the paper focusing on labour force loss due to emigration and the second part analysing employment trends in Serbia during the second decade of the 21st century. We will also examine the most important characteristics of the labour force in Serbia and how labour market supply and demand are perceived. Finally, we will present the results of the Labor Cost Survey, which enables a comparison of the labour market situations in Serbia and the European Union.

Implikacije za zapošljavanje u periodu dve krize - komparativna proučavanja Balkana i EU

One of the main problems the world is currently dealing with is unemployment. The characteristics of the labor market in the Republic of Serbia are long-term high unemployment rate, unfavorable qualification structure, high youth unemployment rate, regionally unequally distributed unemployment, and insufficient measures of active state employment policy. These characteristics point to complex issues that can be characterized as a type of labor market disparity. The problem is that the existing labor supply is finding it increasingly difficult to adapt to the changing demand for labor, which is associated with growing competition in the global market and accelerated technological change. The fact that Serbia's unemployment rates are higher than those of the EU's member states is particularly significant given that the Republic of Serbia's employment policy's primary objectives are the establishment of an effective, stable, and sustainable employment growth trend and the harmonization of employment policy and labor market institutions with the EU acquis. Insufficient use of human resources of a country has a direct impact on its economy and national income, which directly has negative repercussions on the living standards of the population and increasing poverty.

Social spending and chronic unemployment: evidence from OECD countries

PurposeSocial spending is at the forefront of the tools used to repair the damage caused by the global epidemic. However, one of the most critical questions in recent days is as follows: what are the effects of social expenditures in eliminating unemployment? The primary purpose of this article is to provide empirical evidence on the impact of social spending on chronic unemployment in the selected organization for economic co-operation and development (OECD) countries.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the data of 30 selected OECD countries between 1991 and 2018 have been compiled. First, countries have been divided into four categories according to their spending intensity to determine the effects of social spending on the long-term unemployment rate. Then, the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the error correction models (ECM) examine the variables' short- and long-term interactions.FindingsThe author found that the change in the share of social expenditures in GDP affects chronic unemployment similarly. This finding is consistent with the results of studies in the literature dealing with the relationship between public sector size and unemployment. However, the research findings are specifically about the effects of social expenditures on chronic unemployment. In this respect, the results reflect that expenditures with passive characteristics have an expansionary effect on long-term unemployment. In addition, the progressive effect of social expenditures on chronic unemployment is increasing in countries with high expenditure intensity. In countries with relatively low spending intensity, the impact of social spending is limited to the short run and is lower.Originality/valueMultiple studies have reported that public policies developed in line with the incentives of active employment and public or private sector investments reduce the unemployment rate by positively affecting the output/employment level. This study, unlike other studies, focuses on the effects of social expenditures on chronic unemployment. It also compares the effects of social spending on the long-term unemployment rate for countries with varying spending intensities. Therefore, this article tests the impact of social expenditures used against a concrete socioeconomic problem in the OECD sample. In this respect, the findings contribute to the literature by addressing the relationship between social spending and chronic unemployment.

The Berlin index of health and social deprivation: a data based tool to tackle health inequality

Abstract Background Reducing socially induced health inequalities is a key task of urban and regional public health authorities. The Berlin index of health and social deprivation (BIHSD) 2022 aims to show regional differences in health and social situation in sub-areas of the city, to observe developments over time and to identify socially deprived sub-areas of the city. Methods The BIHSD 2022 is based on 20 indicators, most of which come from official statistics. Principal component analyses were applied to calculate subindices for the dimensions employment (e.g. unemployment rate), social conditions (e.g. risk-of-poverty rate) and health (e.g. premature mortality). Based on these subindices the final health and social index was derived. The (sub)indices are available on different spatial levels. Relative changes compared to the BIHSD 2013 were calculated to identify regional trends in the transitions in the social structure and health of the city over time. Results Besides improvements for most indicators over time in most regions of Berlin, there is still significant evidence for health and social inequality across the city. For example, long-term unemployment rate varies between 0.5% and 40.4% on the lowest spatial level. Following a secular trend, there are substantial improvements in former deprived areas in the inner city while in many peripheral residential areas with an average social structure in the past a downwards trend was observed. Conclusions Deprivation indices are helpful tools for research and health reporting in providing evidence for regional inequality. Additionally, they can be used to tailor health promotion strategies and to promote a targeted allocation of financial resources. For example, results of the BIHSD 2022 are being used in epidemiological analyses (e.g. regional inequalities in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection) and for (health) policy planning (e.g. needs- and demand-based planning of healthcare). Key messages • The Berlin index of health and social deprivation 2022 show regional differences in health and social situation in sub-areas of the city and documents developments over time. • The index is being used in epidemiological analyses, to tailor health promotion strategies, and to promote a targeted allocation of financial resources.

Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis

Hysteresis is receiving renewed interest and empirical support but the mechanisms behind it need better understanding. As a novel contribution to such understanding we empirically assess the interpretation according to which long-term unemployment causes hysteresis by increasing the NAIRU. We analyse a panel of 25 OECD countries over a long time span along two lines of enquiry. First, we verify whether long-term unemployment is ‘reversible’. Second, we focus on episodes of strong long-term unemployment reduction to check for inflationary effects in the subsequent years. We find a strong association between total and long-term unemployment rates even in upswings, testifying to macroeconomic reversibility. We do not find accelerating or persistently higher inflation after episodes of strong decline in long-term unemployment, even when the economy is estimated to be above its potential. Our results cast doubt on this explanation of hysteresis and challenge the notion of NAIRU as an inflationary barrier.

Association Between Pharmacological Treatment of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Long-term Unemployment Among Working-Age Individuals in Sweden

Adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at greater risk for unemployment. Pharmacological treatment is effective in reducing the core symptoms of ADHD, but whether it helps to reduce the unemployment rate among adult patients remains unclear. To investigate the association between use of ADHD medication and long-term unemployment in working-age adults with ADHD. Data for this population-based cohort study were extracted from Swedish national registers. Among 25 358 individuals with ADHD born from 1958 to 1978, 12 875 middle-aged adults among the workforce were included. The longitudinal cohort was followed up from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2020, through May 31, 2021. Use of medication for ADHD during the previous 2 years was the main exposure, as both categorical and continuous variables. Yearly accumulated unemployed days were derived from the Public Employment Service, and long-term unemployment was defined as 90 or more days of unemployment per year. Overall and sex-specific relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs were estimated using generalized estimating equations. Among 12 875 individuals with ADHD (5343 women [41.50%] and 7532 men [58.50%]; mean [SD] age, 37.9 [5.6] years), the use of ADHD medications during the previous 2 years was associated with a 10% lower risk of long-term unemployment in the following year (adjusted RR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95]). An association between use of ADHD medications and long-term unemployment was found among women (RR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.76-0.89]) but not men (RR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.91-1.01]). Longer treatment duration was associated with a lower risk of subsequent long-term unemployment among women (RR for use of 1-6 months, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95]; RR for use of 18-24 months, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.58-0.90]; P < .001 for trend). Within-individual comparisons showed that the long-term unemployment rate was lower during periods of ADHD medication treatment compared with nontreatment periods (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.94). The findings of this cohort study suggest that the use of ADHD medication is associated with a lower risk of subsequent long-term unemployment for middle-aged women. These findings should be considered together with the existing knowledge of risks and benefits of ADHD medication when developing treatment plans for working-age adults.

Does human capital investment influence unemployment rate in Bangladesh: a fresh analysis

&lt;abstract&gt; &lt;p&gt;This study looks at how Bangladesh's human capital investment has affected unemployment from 1995 to 2019. To identify the study's unit root, we employed the ADF and PP tests. The short- term and long-term impacts of human capital investment on unemployment are estimated using the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model. The presence or absence of cointegration is assessed using the ARDL bound cointegration test. The Pairwise Granger Causality test, in contrast, is used to ascertain whether there exist causal relationships between variables. The study's findings demonstrate that government health spending on human capital has a significant impact on Bangladesh's long-term unemployment rate. Government spending on education and the unemployment rate are causally related in a single direction, according to the Pairwise Granger test. In the short term, the analysis showed no discernible relationship between human capital investment and unemployment rates. To build a healthy nation and eventually lower Bangladesh's unemployment rate, it is urged that the government should increase health spending and strengthen the health sector. To connect education with employment, the government may give vocational and career-focused education equal weight with general education.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/abstract&gt;

Unemployment as fertile ground for electoral support of the radical left: evidence from the european regions in the first two decades of the 21st century

ABSTACT This paper aims to discover whether the rate of unemployment in the first two decades of the 21st century influenced electoral support for the radical left parties (RLPs). The election results for 37 RLPs were analysed at the level of the NUTS 2 regions. The impact of unemployment was examined using four indicators – general, youth, long-term and male unemployment rates. The aim was achieved through a multilevel regression analysis conducted for parliamentary elections between 2002 and 2019. The results suggest that RLPs are more successful in regions with a higher unemployment rate (general, long-term, male) across the years under review. A 1% rise in the long-term unemployment rate led to an increase in support for RLPs of 0.2% to 1.9% in most NUTS 2 regions (179 out of 198). This effect is most pronounced in the regions where the centre-periphery cleavage associated with historically strong leftist tendencies can be observed, particularly in the case of German, Greek, Portuguese and Spanish regions. The main thrust of the paper is in the analysis of electoral support in parliamentary elections at the regional level, which is less represented in the thematic literature compared with the individual or national level.

Results of the 1:1-matching of the CTC-EFF study: A non-randomized evaluation study

Abstract Background In Germany, more and more communities are implementing the U.S. approach “Communities That Care (CTC)” to prevent youth problem behavior. To evaluate the effectiveness of CTC, we planned a prospective natural experiment. This required the development of a specific novel recruiting and matching procedure. In this talk, we examine the ability of our procedure to achieve base-line equivalence regarding the matching characteristics. Methods The matching procedure is based on community-level data from official statistics 2017 (www.inkar.de) and police crime statistics 2019. From April 2019 to January 2020, we recruited communities that are implementing CTC (intervention communities, IC). For each IC, we recruited a matched community in the same federal state not using CTC (comparison community, CC). To examine whether the ICs (n = 15) and the CCs (n = 15) are equivalent, chi-square tests were performed for categorical variables and Mann-Whitney U tests for metric variables. Results The following are preliminary results. Of the ICs/CCs 10%/7% are large cities, 25%/29% medium-sized cities, 40%/43% larger towns, 15%/14% smaller towns, and 10%/7% rural communities (p=.995). Regarding the community development of ICs/CCs 10%/21% are shrinking, 5%/14% stable, 55%/36% growing and 30%/29% strongly growing (p=.533). The mean fiscal power (€per capita and year) of the ICs/CCs is 1,150€/770€(p=.192). The mean long-term unemployment rate is 1.19% in ICs and 1.03% in CCs (p=.726). The average annual prevalence of violent crime per 100,000 inhabitants is 1.67 in ICs and 1.78 in CCs (p=.690). Prevalence of shoplifting per 100,000 inhabitants is 3.4 in ICs and 3.5 in CCs (p=.389). Conclusions The results show that ICs and CCs are equivalent with respect to matching characteristics. Key messages The developed novel recruiting and matching procedure is appropriate for enrolling communities in non-randomized trials. The CTC-EFF study evaluates the effectiveness of CTC in Germany for the first time.

Labor market dynamics in urban China and the role of the state sector

This paper studies the effect of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on the dynamics of the Chinese urban labor market. Using longitudinally matched monthly panel data, we document very low labor force dynamics in the state sector, which leads to a high long-term unemployment rate. We develop and estimate an equilibrium search and matching model with three differences between the state and non-state sectors: labor productivity, labor adjustment cost, and workers’ bargaining power. Counterfactual analysis shows that, among the three channels, reducing the bargaining power of state sector workers is most effective in reducing unemployment duration and unemployment rate.

Public Preferences for Exit Strategies From COVID-19 Lockdown in Germany-A Discrete Choice Experiment.

Objectives: To decrease the rapid growth of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany, a stepped lockdown was conducted. Acceptance and compliance regarding entering and exiting lockdown measures are key for their success. The aim of the present study was to analyse the population's preferences for exiting lockdown measures. Methods: To evaluate population’s preferences and identify trade-offs between different exit strategies, a discrete choice experiment was conducted on 28–29 April (n = 1,020). Overall, six attributes and 16 choice sets (fractional-factorial design) without an opt-out were chosen. Conditional logit and latent class models were conducted. Results: Most attributes proved to be significant. Two attributes dominated all others: Avoiding a mandatory tracing app, and providing sufficient intensive care capacities. Preventing a high long-term unemployment rate and avoiding the isolation of persons aged 70+, were relevant, though utilities were comparatively lower. We identified subgroups (elderly persons and persons with school children) with different utilities, which indicates specific attributes affecting them dissimilarly. Conclusions: The population prefers cautious re-opening strategies and is at least sceptical about the adoption of severe protection measures. Government should balance interests between subgroups.

Decent Work and Economic Growth in the European Union. A partial order analysis of Eurostat SDG 8 data

&lt;abstract&gt; &lt;p&gt;Decent work and economic growth are regarded as essential elements for the sustainable development of countries. Thus, the Sustainable Development Goal No. 8 (SDG 8) is specifically devoted to this. The present paper reports on partial ordering-based analyses of the main indicators for the 27 European member states for their complying with SDG 8. The analyses are based on five main indicators, real GDP (GDP), investment share of GDP by institutional sectors (INV), young people neither in employment nor in education and training (NEET), employment rate (EmpR) and long-term unemployment rate (LtUR). The analyses comprise 1) an overall analysis taken all five indicators simultaneously into account, 2) the investment profiles of the countries applying investment from business, government of households as indicators and 3) the employment situation in the single countries with the NEET, EmpR and LtUR as indicators, specifically looking at differences between males and females. The data gives rather clear-cut pictures of the general situation in the European Union as well on the investment profiles and employment situation. In all cases the countries are mutually ranked and compared to the population averaged values for the Union (EU27).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/abstract&gt;

LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT OF THE RISK GROUPS IN THE SLOVAK LABOUR MARKET

Long-term unemployment is a persistent problem for Slovakia. Despite the number of long-term unemployed people in Slovakia has decreased significantly in recent years, it still presents a high proportion of the total unemployment rate. According to the European Commission Report about Slovakia in 2019, while the long-term unemployment rate fell to 4% on a year-on-year basis, it is still well above the EU average of 2.9%. Although growth is expected in the upcoming years, spending on active labour market policies in Slovakia has been one of the lowest in the EU. The study aims at investigating the current situation of long-term unemployment among risk groups in the labour market in Slovakia and labour market measures taken to curb it. It also examines the consequences of unemployment on the family and to seek solutions for the long-term unemployment in Slovakia. The data has been analyzed by a statistical method and proposes solutions to reduce long-term unemployment in the northern part of Slovakia