Long-term Surface Observations Research Articles

Study on Surface Subsidence Characteristics Based on Three-Dimensional Test Device for Simulating Rock Strata and Surface Movement

The main functions of a three-dimensional test device for simulating rock formations and surface movement affected by underground coal mining were described in detail, and a series of similar related tests were carried out. The device consisted of an outer frame, a pressurization unit, a pulling unit, and a coal seam simulation portion. Using this test device, supported by monitoring methods such as the three-dimensional laser scanner method, a model test study on the surface subsidence characteristics caused by coal seam mining was carried out. Combined with the field measurements, the transfer law of surface subsidence caused by coal seam mining was revealed, and the whole surface subsidence response process was analyzed. The experimental results show that the subsidence caused by mining disturbances below the coal seam accounts for 79.3% of the total subsidence, which is the dominant factor of the total surface subsidence. After long-term surface observations, surface subsidence can be divided into four stages after coal mining, and the settlement value of the obvious settlement stage accounts for more than 60% of the total settlement value. The above test results fully reflect the feasibility and practicality of the three-dimensional test device to simulate rock strata and surface movement and provide a new experimental research tool that can be used to further study the surface subsidence characteristics and control caused by coal mining.

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is an activity of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project. This paper is a component of the report, focusing on the present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation. Utilizing the TOAR surface ozone database, several figures present the global distribution and trends of daytime average ozone at 2702 non-urban monitoring sites, highlighting the regions and seasons of the world with the greatest ozone levels. Similarly, ozonesonde and commercial aircraft observations reveal ozone’s distribution throughout the depth of the free troposphere. Long-term surface observations are limited in their global spatial coverage, but data from remote locations indicate that ozone in the 21st century is greater than during the 1970s and 1980s. While some remote sites and many sites in the heavily polluted regions of East Asia show ozone increases since 2000, many others show decreases and there is no clear global pattern for surface ozone changes since 2000. Two new satellite products provide detailed views of ozone in the lower troposphere across East Asia and Europe, revealing the full spatial extent of the spring and summer ozone enhancements across eastern China that cannot be assessed from limited surface observations. Sufficient data are now available (ozonesondes, satellite, aircraft) across the tropics from South America eastwards to the western Pacific Ocean, to indicate a likely tropospheric column ozone increase since the 1990s. The 2014–2016 mean tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) between 60°N–60°S from five satellite products is 300 Tg ± 4%. While this agreement is excellent, the products differ in their quantification of TOB trends and further work is required to reconcile the differences. Satellites can now estimate ozone’s global long-wave radiative effect, but evaluation is difficult due to limited in situ observations where the radiative effect is greatest.

Evidence of 1991–2013 decrease of biogenic secondary organic aerosol in response to SO2 emission controls

Air quality policy to decrease fine particulate matter mass concentrations (PM2.5) in the US has mainly targeted sulfate aerosol through controls on sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. Organic aerosol (OA) instead of sulfate is now the dominant component of total PM2.5. Long-term surface observations (1991–2013) in the Southeast US in summer show parallel decreases in sulfate (2.8%–4.0% a−1) and OA (1.6%–1.9% a−1). Decline of anthropogenic OA emissions is uncertain but is unlikely to fully explain this trend because most OA in the Southeast US in summer is biogenic. We conducted a 1991–2013 simulation with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model including inventory decreases in anthropogenic SO2, NOx, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions, constant anthropogenic primary OA emissions, and a new mechanism of aqueous-phase SOA formation from isoprene. This simulation reproduces the observed long-term decreases of sulfate and OA, and attributes the OA decrease to decline in the OA yield from biogenic isoprene as sulfate decreases (driving lower aqueous aerosol volume and acidity). Interannual OA variability in the model (mainly driven by isoprene) is also well correlated with observations. This result provides support for a large air quality co-benefit of SO2 emission controls in decreasing biogenic OA as well as sulfate.

Analysis of particulate emissions from tropical biomass burning using a global aerosol model and long-term surface observations

Abstract. We use the GLOMAP global aerosol model evaluated against observations of surface particulate matter (PM2.5) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) to better understand the impacts of biomass burning on tropical aerosol over the period 2003 to 2011. Previous studies report a large underestimation of AOD over regions impacted by tropical biomass burning, scaling particulate emissions from fire by up to a factor of 6 to enable the models to simulate observed AOD. To explore the uncertainty in emissions we use three satellite-derived fire emission datasets (GFED3, GFAS1 and FINN1). In these datasets the tropics account for 66–84 % of global particulate emissions from fire. With all emission datasets GLOMAP underestimates dry season PM2.5 concentrations in regions of high fire activity in South America and underestimates AOD over South America, Africa and Southeast Asia. When we assume an upper estimate of aerosol hygroscopicity, underestimation of AOD over tropical regions impacted by biomass burning is reduced relative to previous studies. Where coincident observations of surface PM2.5 and AOD are available we find a greater model underestimation of AOD than PM2.5, even when we assume an upper estimate of aerosol hygroscopicity. Increasing particulate emissions to improve simulation of AOD can therefore lead to overestimation of surface PM2.5 concentrations. We find that scaling FINN1 emissions by a factor of 1.5 prevents underestimation of AOD and surface PM2.5 in most tropical locations except Africa. GFAS1 requires emission scaling factor of 3.4 in most locations with the exception of equatorial Asia where a scaling factor of 1.5 is adequate. Scaling GFED3 emissions by a factor of 1.5 is sufficient in active deforestation regions of South America and equatorial Asia, but a larger scaling factor is required elsewhere. The model with GFED3 emissions poorly simulates observed seasonal variability in surface PM2.5 and AOD in regions where small fires dominate, providing independent evidence that GFED3 underestimates particulate emissions from small fires. Seasonal variability in both PM2.5 and AOD is better simulated by the model using FINN1 emissions. Detailed observations of aerosol properties over biomass burning regions are required to better constrain particulate emissions from fires.

A climatology of dust emission events from northern Africa using long-term surface observations

Abstract. Long-term (1984–2012) surface observations from 70 stations in the Sahara and Sahel are used to explore the diurnal, seasonal and geographical variations in dust emission events and thresholds. The frequency of dust emission (FDE) is calculated using the present weather codes of SYNOP reports. Thresholds are estimated as the wind speed for which there is a 50% probability of dust emission and are then used to calculate strong wind frequency (SWF) and dust uplift potential (DUP), where the latter is an estimate of the dust-generating power of winds. Stations are grouped into six coherent geographical areas for more in-depth analysis. FDE is highest at stations in Sudan and overall peaks in spring north of 23° N. South of this, where stations are directly influenced by the summer monsoon, the annual cycle in FDE is more variable. Thresholds are highest in northern Algeria, lowest in the latitude band 16–21° N and have greatest seasonal variations in the Sahel. Spatial variability in thresholds partly explain spatial variability in frequency of dust emission events on an annual basis. However, seasonal variations in thresholds for the six grouped areas are not the main control on seasonal variations in FDE. This is demonstrated by highly correlated seasonal cycles of FDE and SWF which are not significantly changed by using a fixed, or seasonally varying, threshold. The likely meteorological mechanisms generating these patterns such as low-level jets and haboobs are discussed.

Are vegetation-related roughness changes the cause of the recent decrease in dust emission from the Sahel?

[1] Since the 1980s, a dramatic downward trend in North African dustiness and transport to the tropical Atlantic Ocean has been observed by different data sets and methods. The precise causes of this trend have previously been difficult to understand, partly due to the sparse observational record. Here we show that a decrease in surface wind speeds associated with increased roughness due to more vegetation in the Sahel is the most likely cause of the observed drop in dust emission. Associated changes in turbulence and evapotranspiration, and changes in large-scale circulation, are secondary contributors. Past work has tried to explain negative correlations between North African dust and precipitation through impacts on emission thresholds due to changes in soil moisture and vegetation cover. The use of novel diagnostic tools applied here to long-term surface observations suggests that this is not the dominating effect. Our results are consistent with a recently observed global decrease in surface wind speed, known as “stilling”, and demonstrate the importance of representing vegetation-related roughness changes in models. They also offer a new mechanism of how land-use change and agriculture can impact the Sahelian climate. Citation: Cowie, S. M., P. Knippertz, and J. H. Marsham (2013), Are vegetation-related roughness changes the cause of the recent decrease in dust emission from the Sahel?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1868–1872, doi:10.1002/grl.50273

The distribution of snow black carbon observed in the Arctic and compared to the GISS-PUCCINI model

Abstract. In this study, we evaluate the ability of the latest NASA GISS composition-climate model, GISS-E2-PUCCINI, to simulate the spatial distribution of snow BC (sBC) in the Arctic relative to present-day observations. Radiative forcing due to BC deposition onto Arctic snow and sea ice is also estimated. Two sets of model simulations are analyzed, where meteorology is linearly relaxed towards National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and towards NASA Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses. Results indicate that the modeled concentrations of sBC are comparable with present-day observations in and around the Arctic Ocean, except for apparent underestimation at a few sites in the Russian Arctic. That said, the model has some biases in its simulated spatial distribution of BC deposition to the Arctic. The simulations from the two model runs are roughly equal, indicating that discrepancies between model and observations come from other sources. Underestimation of biomass burning emissions in Northern Eurasia may be the main cause of the low biases in the Russian Arctic. Comparisons of modeled aerosol BC (aBC) with long-term surface observations at Barrow, Alert, Zeppelin and Nord stations show significant underestimation in winter and spring concentrations in the Arctic (most significant in Alaska), although the simulated seasonality of aBC has been greatly improved relative to earlier model versions. This is consistent with simulated biases in vertical profiles of aBC, with underestimation in the lower and middle troposphere but overestimation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, suggesting that the wet removal processes in the current model may be too weak or that vertical transport is too rapid, although the simulated BC lifetime seems reasonable. The combination of observations and modeling provides a comprehensive distribution of sBC over the Arctic. On the basis of this distribution, we estimate the decrease in snow and sea ice albedo and the resulting radiative forcing. We suggest that the albedo reduction due to BC deposition presents significant space-time variations, with highest mean reductions of 1.25% in the Russian Arctic, which are much larger than those in other Arctic regions (0.39% to 0.64%). The averaged value over the Arctic north of 66° N is 0.4–0.6% during spring, leading to regional surface radiative forcings of 0.7, 1.1 and 1.0 W m−2 in spring 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively.

Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

Abstract. Marine organic aerosol emissions have been implemented and evaluated within the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's 7-mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM-7). Emissions of marine primary organic aerosols (POA), phytoplankton-produced isoprene- and monoterpenes-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and methane sulfonate (MS−) are shown to affect surface concentrations of organic aerosols in remote marine regions. Global emissions of submicron marine POA is estimated to be 7.9 and 9.4 Tg yr−1, for the Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) emission parameterizations, respectively. Marine sources of SOA and particulate MS− (containing both sulfur and carbon atoms) contribute an additional 0.2 and 5.1 Tg yr−1, respectively. Widespread areas over productive waters of the Northern Atlantic, Northern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean show marine-source submicron organic aerosol surface concentrations of 100 ng m−3, with values up to 400 ng m−3 over biologically productive areas. Comparison of long-term surface observations of water insoluble organic matter (WIOM) with POA concentrations from the two emission parameterizations shows that despite revealed discrepancies (often more than a factor of 2), both Gantt et al. (2011) and Vignati et al. (2010) formulations are able to capture the magnitude of marine organic aerosol concentrations, with the Gantt et al. (2011) parameterization attaining better seasonality. Model simulations show that the mixing state of the marine POA can impact the surface number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The largest increases (up to 20%) in CCN (at a supersaturation (S) of 0.2%) number concentration are obtained over biologically productive ocean waters when marine organic aerosol is assumed to be externally mixed with sea-salt. Assuming marine organics are internally-mixed with sea-salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to sea-salt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

Re-analysis of tropospheric sulfate aerosol and ozone for the period 1980–2005 using the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ

Abstract. Understanding historical trends of trace gas and aerosol distributions in the troposphere is essential to evaluate the efficiency of existing strategies to reduce air pollution and to design more efficient future air quality and climate policies. We performed coupled photochemistry and aerosol microphysics simulations for the period 1980–2005 using the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ, to assess our understanding of long-term changes and inter-annual variability of the chemical composition of the troposphere, and in particular of ozone and sulfate concentrations, for which long-term surface observations are available. In order to separate the impact of the anthropogenic emissions and natural variability on atmospheric chemistry, we compare two model experiments, driven by the same ECMWF re-analysis data, but with varying and constant anthropogenic emissions, respectively. Our model analysis indicates an increase of ca. 1 ppbv (0.055 ± 0.002 ppbv yr−1) in global average surface O3 concentrations due to anthropogenic emissions, but this trend is largely masked by the larger O3 anomalies due to the variability of meteorology and natural emissions. The changes in meteorology (not including stratospheric variations) and natural emissions account for the 75 % of the total variability of global average surface O3 concentrations. Regionally, annual mean surface O3 concentrations increased by 1.3 and 1.6 ppbv over Europe and North America, respectively, despite the large anthropogenic emission reductions between 1980 and 2005. A comparison of winter and summer O3 trends with measurements shows a qualitative agreement, except in North America, where our model erroneously computed a positive trend. Simulated O3 increases of more than 4 ppbv in East Asia and 5 ppbv in South Asia can not be corroborated with long-term observations. Global average sulfate surface concentrations are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions. Globally natural emissions are an important driver determining AOD variations. Regionally, AOD decreased by 28 % over Europe, while it increased by 19 % and 26 % in East and South Asia. The global radiative perturbation calculated in our model for the period 1980–2005 was rather small (0.05 W m−2 for O3 and 0.02 W m−2 for total aerosol direct effect), but larger perturbations ranging from −0.54 to 1.26 W m−2 are estimated in those regions where anthropogenic emissions largely varied.

Screen level temperature increase due to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide in calm and windy nights revisited

[1] Long-term surface observations over land have shown temperature increases during the last century, especially during nighttime. Observations analyzed by Parker (2004) show similar long-term trends for calm and windy conditions at night, and on basis of this it was suggested that the possible effect of urban heat effects on long-term temperature trends are small. On the other hand, a simplified analytic model study by Pielke and Matsui (2005) (hereinafter referred to as PM05) suggests that at night the resultant long-term temperature trends over land should depend on height and strongly on wind speed (mostly due to alterations in the rate of nocturnal cooling in the stable boundary layer (SBL)). In this paper we expand the PM05 study by using a validated atmospheric boundary layer model with elaborated atmospheric physics compared to PM05, in order to explore the response of the SBL over land to a change in radiative forcing. We find that the screen level temperature response is surprisingly constant for a rather broad range of both geostrophic wind speed (5–15 m s−1) and 10 m wind (2–4.0 m s−1). This is mostly due to land surface-vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks taken into account in the present study which were not considered by PM05.

An analysis of seasonal surface dust aerosol concentrations in the western US (2001–2004): Observations and model predictions

Long-term surface observations indicate that soil dust represents over 30% of the annual fine (particle diameter less than 2.5 μm) particulate mass in many areas of the western US; in spring and summer, it represents an even larger fraction. There are numerous dust-producing playas in the western US, but surface dust aerosol concentrations in this region are also influenced by dust of Asian origin. This study examines the seasonality of surface soil dust concentrations at 15 western US sites using observations from the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network from 2001 to 2004. Average soil concentrations in particulate matter less than 10 μm in diameter (PM 10) were lowest in winter and peaked during the summer months at these sites; however, episodic higher-concentration events (>10 μg m −3) occurred in the spring, the time of maximum Asian dust transport to the western US. Simulated surface dust concentrations from the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) suggested that long-range transport from Asia dominates surface dust concentrations in the western US in the spring, and that, although some long-range transport does occur throughout the year (1–2 μg m −3), locally generated dust plays a larger role in the region in summer and fall. However, NAAPS simulated some anomalously high concentrations (>50 μg m −3) of local dust in the fall and winter months over portions of the western US. Differences between modeled and observed dust concentrations were attributed to overestimation of total observed soil dust concentrations by the assumptions used to convert IMPROVE measurements into PM 10 soil concentrations, lack of inhibition of model dust production in snow-covered regions, and lack of seasonal agricultural sources in the model.

The Surface Radiation Budget over Oceans and Continents

Abstract An updated evaluation of the surface radiation budget in climate models (1994–96 versions; seven datasets available, with and without aerosols) and in two new satellite-based global datasets (with aerosols) is presented. All nine datasets capture the broad mean monthly zonal variations in the flux components and in the net radiation, with maximum differences of some 100 W m−2 occurring in the downwelling fluxes at specific latitudes. Using long-term surface observations, both from land stations and the Pacific warm pool (with typical uncertainties in the annual values varying between ±5 and 20 W m−2), excess net radiation (RN) and downwelling shortwave flux density (So↓) are found in all datasets, consistent with results from earlier studies [for global land, excesses of 15%–20% (12 W m−2) in RN and about 12% (20 W m−2) in So↓]. For the nine datasets combined, the spread in annual fluxes is significant: for RN, it is 15 (50) W m−2 over global land (Pacific warm pool) in an observed annual mean of 65 (135) W m−2; for So↓, it is 25 (60) W m−2 over land (warm pool) in an annual mean of 176 (197) W m−2. The effects of aerosols are included in three of the authors’ datasets, based on simple aerosol climatologies and assumptions regarding aerosol optical properties. They offer guidance on the broad impact of aerosols on climate, suggesting that the inclusion of aerosols in models would reduce the annual So↓ by 15–20 W m−2 over land and 5–10 W m−2 over the oceans. Model differences in cloud cover contribute to differences in So↓ between datasets; for global land, this is most clearly demonstrated through the effects of cloud cover on the surface shortwave cloud forcing. The tendency for most datasets to underestimate cloudiness, particularly over global land, and possibly to underestimate atmospheric water vapor absorption, probably contributes to the excess downwelling shortwave flux at the surface.