Long-term Strategic Interests Research Articles

ExTRUST: Reducing Exploit Stockpiles With a Privacy-Preserving Depletion System for Inter-State Relationships

Cyberspace is a fragile construct threatened by malicious cyber operations of different actors, with vulnerabilities in IT hardware and software forming the basis for such activities, thus also posing a threat to global IT security. Advancements in the field of artificial intelligence accelerate this development, either with artificial intelligence enabled cyber weapons, automated cyber defense measures, or artificial intelligence-based threat and vulnerability detection. Especially state actors, with their long-term strategic security interests, often stockpile such knowledge of vulnerabilities and exploits to enable their military or intelligence service cyberspace operations. While treaties and regulations to limit these developments and to enhance global IT security by disclosing vulnerabilities are currently being discussed on the international level, these efforts are hindered by state concerns about the disclosure of unique knowledge and about giving up tactical advantages. This leads to a situation where multiple states are likely to stockpile at least some identical exploits, with technical measures to enable a depletion process for these stockpiles that preserve state secrecy interests and consider the special constraints of interacting states as well as the requirements within such environments being non-existent. This paper proposes such a privacy-preserving approach that allows multiple state parties to privately compare their stock of vulnerabilities and exploits to check for items that occur in multiple stockpiles without revealing them so that their disclosure can be considered. We call our system EXTRUST and show that it is scalable and can withstand several attack scenarios. Beyond the intergovernmental setting, EXTRUST can also be used for other zero-trust use cases, such as bug-bounty programs.

A Measuring Method Based on Graph Structure for Decision-Making Complexity in Major Science and Technology Projects

Unlike general large-scale projects, major science and technology projects (MSTPs) are strategically positioned to meet national needs, reflecting the forward-looking direction of science and technology development. The correctness of decision making for MSTPs is crucial for the long-term development and strategic interests of the country. To measure decision complexity accurately, we propose a graph-based approach that utilizes information entropy theory. This approach provides decision makers with a theoretical foundation for effectively managing decision complexity.

Saudi Arabia, sports diplomacy and authoritarian capitalism in world politics

ABSTRACT Since 2016, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has sought to improve his country’s economic and strategic position through sports diplomacy. These efforts include investments in a diverse portfolio of sports properties, including hosting marquee professional sporting events at home and financing leagues and teams abroad. It is all part of Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ strategic plan to diversify the Kingdom’s economy. This paper discusses the foreign and domestic policy purposes underlying Saudi Arabia’s sports diplomacy and their wider implications for the global economy. I argue that the sports diplomacy initiated by MBS is an investment both in the long-term strategic interests of Saudi Arabia and in the longevity of the ruling regime. Soft power accumulation, as would be predicted by the sports mega-events literature, is a secondary consideration. This paper unfolds in three parts, First, I discuss the relationship between sportswashing, sports diplomacy, and soft power. Second, I provide an overview of Saudi Arabia’s sports engagements since 2014. Third, I explain Saudi Arabia’s behaviour relative to the literature on sports diplomacy. Fourth, I explain Saudi Arabia’s sports diplomacy with reference to the goals laid out in its Vision 2030 policy. I conclude with a discussion of the wider implications of Saudi Arabia’s sports diplomacy.

A Modernized Framework for Transportation Decision-Making in a Hyper-Integrated Global Supply Chain Environment

Abstract At the turn of the century, firms struggled to make transportation decisions in increasingly integrated supply chains that routinely stretched around the world. In “A Framework for Transportation Decision Making in an Integrated Supply Chain” (Supply Chain Management: An International Journal 5 [2]: 71–77) T. P. Stank and T. J. Goldsby proposed an original transportation decision-making framework to address the need. The framework is cited over 250 times in the academic literature and referenced by firms seeking to optimize cost-service tradeoffs in an environment characterized by higher levels of market freedoms, service innovation, and supply chain collaboration. Since the year 2000, though, the digital revolution, customer expectations, and supply chain resilience concerns have given rise to new demands for transportation decision-making, with operations residing in a hyper-integrated and further globally entrenched state. Therefore, we revisit Stank and Goldsby’s original framework to review major transportation decision areas and devise contemporary mechanisms to address the modern business environment. Our framework highlights the rapid and interdependent nature of today’s corporate transportation decisions to help firms tackle current business needs and long-term strategic interests. We also seek to illuminate prospective avenues for research endeavor.

ASEAN’s Cognition of China–US Gaming and Its Role in Regional Cooperation

China–US relations will stagnate in a strategic game for some time to come and even for a long historical period. ASEAN will find itself confronted with a new problem and a new challenge as it has to navigate through this situation and cope with inter-state relations and international affairs under this context. As the largest neighbor of China and a main partner to the US in Asia, ASEAN insists on “not choosing any side” and sticks to the “balance of power”. The intensified China–US game has some potential impact on China-ASEAN relations. Securing the centrality of ASEAN in regional cooperation not only helps maintain lasting peace, stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia, but also is in line with the long-term strategic interests of China and the US in the region. China will continue to support the centrality of ASEAN in regional cooperation, promote deep integration of the “Belt and Road” initiative with different institutional arrangements that ASEAN makes for regional integration, and give positive considerations to building production bases in Southeast Asia to improve its global industrial chain.

An Analysis of Washington Role in South Asian Balance of Power

United States' long-term strategic interest in South Asia has made it a dynamic area for its foreign policy priorities. The cold war, the 9/11 incident, and the rise of China as a global power are the main factors responsible for U.S. involvement in the region. Over decades, the U.S. has under gone ups and downs in its relations with Pakistan and India to accomplish its strategic objectives.Against this backdrop, the paper examines the U.S. changing interests in South Asia, its attempts to fulfill its strategic objectives, its ties with India and Pakistan, and its role in the balance of power between Pakistan and India. While doing so, a descriptive-analytical method has been used to study and present facts with the optimum level of objectivity. The study's findings concluded that U.S. changing policy towards South Asia and its quest for containing the rising Chinese influence in Euro-Asia is playing a significant role in the balance of power between Pakistan and India.

South Africa’s Strategic Investment on its National Security in Southern Africa

South Africa is a country of global, continental and regional strategic importance. It is a global actor with the well-entrenched and long-standing international political and corporate role and presence and relative global strength. It is Africa’s qualitatively largest and strongest diversified economy. It is African continental and Southern African regional power with considerable continental and regional strength. These factors give it enormous advantages and privileges in playing a leading role in African affairs. They also, dialectically, serve as its key challenges it faces in its efforts to structurally transform its society and to contribute towards structural regional and continental restructuring. How given these factors should South Africa strategically invest on its national security in Southern Africa – the region where it has considerable power and authority – a region whose dependence upon it is a dominated process? There is a fundamental need for this process to be substantially reduced for South Africa’s long-term strategic interests. Its sustainable national security and increased progressive role in African affairs require truly regional allies in a requisite position to come to its aid in a period of its urgent need. Weak regional countries crucially depending on South Africa are of less importance to it. The achievement of their sustainable development is in the long-term strategic interests of South Africa in its internal and external relations. It is not only regional countries which need South Africa for their national security. South Africa also critically needs them particularly as a country expected to substantially increase its leading role in the structural regional and continental transformation. Its sustainable national security lies not only with the majority of its people, based on the satisfaction of their interests, investing on its defence, but also with the structurally restructured region walking together with it in the advancement of the structural continental transformation.

Making Geoeconomics an IR Research Program

AbstractIn contrast to growing public attention to geoeconomics as the new mode of conducting great power competition, the IR discipline has not actively engaged in conceptual and theoretical analysis from the geoeconomic viewpoint. This article examines issues that geoeconomics needs to solve to become a new theoretical framework in the positivist “American” IR scholarship that dominates research on great power competition. On the one hand, the concept of geoeconomics needs to be redefined and account for a phenomenon that is not already covered in extant IR scholarship. Thus, geoeconomics should be considered as a form of grand strategy and defined as the use of economic instruments to advance mid- to long-term strategic interests in a geographical region of the world. On the other hand, geoeconomics in positivist IR should take into account international economic structure and domestic politics in developing a parsimonious explanation for the conditions to employ geoeconomic grand strategy. In this process, the theorist needs to make an analytical choice to concentrate on certain factors and mechanisms to assure theoretical parsimony. This article concludes that addressing the issues of conceptual clarity and parsimonious theorization would potentially allow geoeconomics to become a new research program in positivist IR.

The process of making Vietnam’s foreign policy with the United States based on David Easton’s model

Since 2001, Vietnam has gradually built and implemented strategic and comprehensive partnerships with some of the World’s great powers. The behaviors of Vietnam have brought skepticism from international community. Besides, the differences in the nature of “Strategic Partnership”, “Comprehensive Partnership” and “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in Vietnam's foreign policy are paid much attention to by scholars and scientific researchers. Because of the long-term strategic national interests, Vietnam-US relations strongly elevated from the normalization of bilateral relations to the level of comprehensive partners in 2013. Since 2017, the two countries have planned to upgrade their relations from comprehensive partnership level to strategic partnership level. In this context, the paper focuses on the application of systemic approaches in Vietnam's foreign policy making, with the content “The Process of Making Vietnam’s Foreign Policy with the United States based on David Easton’s Model”. The paper will analyze the process of making Vietnam’s foreign policy with Unites States based on David Easton’s Model. In addition, the paper also provide forecasts of the possibility of adjusting Vietnam's foreign policy towards the United States, especially upgrading the relations to strategic partnerships.

Russian capital investment dynamics as an economic transformation factor

By comparing Russian and American capital investment programs according to gross and per capita indexes, this article analyzes capital investments long-term dynamics in economic activities in general and manufacturing in particular. Results showed that Russian economic growths quality, determined by its 2000 capital investment structure did not correspond with the national economys long-term development aims. Moreover, investment activitys current fading appears consequent to that periods inappropriate investment politics. The existing Russian investment system aims to incorporate its economy into the global economy as a supplier of natural and, partly, agricultural resources, thus dooming manufacturing to stagnation at best. The authors reveal that activation of industrial politics, established on a fundamental power-of-the-state approach in the investment process, based on long-term strategic interests and the potential of market forces (namely, efficiency use of resources) allows launching large-scale investment projects to provide favorable conditions for creating an innovative national economy.

Investment Dynamics As a Factor of Transformation of the Russian Economy

The dynamics of long-term investment by primary economic activities is considered in general and in detail by manufacturing. Russian and American investment programs are compared in terms of gross and specific indicators. The quality of economic growth, as seen through the 2000s Russian investment pattern, mismatched the long-term goals of domestic economic development. In addition, the current phaseout of investment activity is largely an effect of the inadequate investment policy of those years. The existing institutional system orients the Russian economy toward building into the global pattern as a supplier of natural and partly agricultural resources, dooming manufacturing to stagnation at best. The authors prove that stimulation of industrial policy is fundamentally based on a state approach: investing with long-term strategic interests in mind and considering the potential of market relations (efficient resource management) would finally launch large-scale investment programs, providing conditions for the creation of a national innovative economy.

China's Multi-Faceted Economic Development Strategy in East Africa

Sino-East African infrastructure investment and international trade have reached record levels and garnered global interest in recent years. Despite this attention, there is a lack of project-level analysis and documentation relating to China's overarching economic strategies in the East African region. By analyzing the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway and the Damerjog Port-Ogaden Basin gas pipeline projects, this article discusses project-level details and their roles in China's overarching economic development strategy. Through analysis on bilateral trade and infrastructure development connectivity, this article determines the derivatives and long-term strategic interests of Sino-African trade and infrastructure investment.

Foreign Aid to Ukraine after 2014: Volumes, Projects and Donors’ Motivation

The article deals with assistance aid provided by the international donors to Ukraine. Author analyzes Ukrainian statistics on the issue – the projects registered between January 2014 and February 2018 by two Ukrainian ministries – the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and the Ministry of Finance. Although incomplete, this data is considered assistance, which has reached Ukraine. The author names the overall volumes of international assistance to Ukraine, amounts offered in loans and grants and the major allocations of assistance. Proceeding from priority areas of aid, the author concludes on the donor’s motivations and their possible specific interests in Ukraine. Major Ukrainian donors – international financial organizations (IMF, IBRD, EIB, EBRD and KfW), as well as the European Union, the UN, Chernobyl Shelter Fund and donor states (the United States, Germany and Canada) have specific approaches towards assistance aid. While multilateral institutions tend to address the needs of Ukrainian economy by funding the reforms and infrastructure, donor states pay more attention to their long-term strategic and economic interests. They fund nuclear security and non-proliferation, support defense, law enforcement and border control agencies, encourage civil society and media development, consult agricultural sector and bilateral trade. States also ensure that national companies become contractors of their aid projects. Common motivation both for multilateral donors and states is to turn Ukraine into a western-like state with a transparent system of governance sensitive to foreign influence.

Kurdistan: The Taiwan of the Middle East?

Taiwan and Kurdistan appear to have little in common, but the progressive values of these two societies embedded within hostile regions make them both natural allies and important strategic assets in the U.S.’s and international community’s long-term fight against authoritarianism and radical religious theocracies. Instead, they have been ignored and/or exploited in the pursuit of short-term geopolitical and economic interests in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, which comes at great cost to American and international values as well as long-term strategic interests, so both citizens and policymakers must consider new approaches.

Did the Paris Agreement Plant the Seeds of a Climate Consistent International Financial Regime?

Finance has been critical to the development of interest and momentum concerning the Paris Agreement, which emerged from COP21. However, a quick scan of the accord could lead many to derive a disappointing picture because of the absence of practical commitments to financial devices that can limit the risks of climate change. We support the opposite view that the text marks a new departure by committing countries to “making financial flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development ». This was matched by parallel developments such as the Financial Stability Board’s launch of a new Task Force on climate disclosure. We argue that, further steps now need to be taken within the broader context of financing the new model of prosperity laid out in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN, September 2015). At a time of increasing financial uncertainty and inadequate investment in the real economy, putting in place a framework for financing the transition to a low-carbon, resilient model of development is now an economic imperative – and an immense opportunity. Mitigating the systemic risks of climate change while putting the global financial system on a path toward balanced and sustainable development, is in the long-term strategic interests of both industrialized and developing countries and we suggest what practical steps can be accomplished in a near future in this direction.

A strategic culture analysis of German ballistic missile defense policy

ABSTRACTSince the end of the Cold War, territorial ballistic missile defense (BMD) has played a key role in shaping relations between the U.S., NATO, and Russia. This article applies the concept of strategic culture to examine how Berlin rationalized and legitimized BMD and Germany's participation in the NATO BMD project. For Berlin, BMD served as a tool to strengthen NATO and held promise to paving the way to strategic partnership with Russia. With the current stalemate between NATO and Russia and the internal dissent within NATO over BMD's composition and role in its broader deterrence and defense posture, the German long-term strategic interest in BMD has lost relevance. Yet Berlin still has not established a new policy line on BMD. The article argues that the German cooperative strategic culture did not provide off-the-shelf alternatives that fit the changed geopolitical circumstances. It also did not adapt, but rather exhibited a prevalence for continuity.

A Marriage Estranged: The Strategic Disconnect between Pakistan and the United States

A Marriage Estranged:The Strategic Disconnect between Pakistan and the United States Moeed Yusuf (bio) Like a bad marriage that holds together only because the couple deems divorce to be cost-prohibitive, the United States and Pakistan remain locked in a deeply distrustful relationship. Both sides regularly accuse the other of being an insincere partner and complain of being cheated. Yet Pakistan remains a major non-NATO ally, and the two states continue to seek ways to overcome their differences to fight terrorism. U.S.-Pakistan relations frayed considerably in the last eighteen months of the Obama administration. With President Donald Trump's entry into the mix, Pakistanis sensed an opportunity to work with an administration that seems to have no preconceived South Asia policy. But progress will not be easy. The roots of U.S.-Pakistan tensions in recent years lie in the most canonical principle of interstate relations: a fundamental divergence of priorities and self-perceived interests. Each country's policies in pursuit of its interests, perfectly rational in its own mind, have been antithetical to the other's vision for South Asia. But both sides have been reluctant to acknowledge this situation—perhaps concerned that doing so would unleash the dangers associated with a total rupture in ties. This essay will examine the divergence in U.S. and Pakistani interests and consider the prospect for improved relations during the Trump administration. Real Divergences, Real Consequences Since September 11, the United States' most urgent priority in Pakistan's neighborhood has been to defeat al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Its principal long-term strategic interest lies in cementing its burgeoning alliance with India as a means of checking China's rise. Pakistan's foreign and security policy, on the other hand, is shaped by the perennially hostile relationship with India. Throughout the country's 70-year history, the Pakistani military has tried to ensure a semblance of parity with its eastern neighbor. This has been Pakistan's insurance policy against any Indian aggression that could threaten the state's collapse. [End Page 46] During the Cold War, Pakistan used the United States to bolster its economy and military capability against Soviet-leaning India. Pakistan's India calculus has not moved since this time, but the United States' strategy has flipped. And herein lies the problem. The United States and India are now engaged in a multifaceted strategic partnership that is reinforcing India's rise. In Afghanistan, the United States has invested trillions of dollars to transform the country from a safe haven for anti-U.S. terrorist groups responsible for the September 11 attacks to a peaceful, democratic state. To achieve this goal, it created the NATO-trained and -backed 350,000-strong Afghan National Security Force, partnered with political forces opposed to the Taliban, and leveraged international economic support for Afghanistan. India has emerged as a key partner. It has pledged over $2 billion in assistance, making it Afghanistan's fifth-largest donor, and was the first country to sign a security pact with Afghanistan.1 Pakistan was pivotal for this U.S. vision in Afghanistan—without Pakistan, no victory was possible there. Pakistan provided the United States with subsidized transit facilities, deployment of over 100,000 troops to its western frontier to fight anti-U.S. terrorists who had crossed into Pakistan's border regions after the September 11 attacks, and significant intelligence cooperation on groups like al Qaeda. But this cooperation did not extend to the Afghan Taliban. U.S. policymakers offered several incentives to gain Pakistan's full support in Afghanistan while simultaneously trying to ensure Pakistan's internal stability. These included over $30 billion in monetary assistance, support to Pakistan's internal counterterrorism operations, direct use of aerial power through drone strikes against militants in the border regions, and signals of a long-term commitment to Pakistan that entailed broadening the conversation beyond Afghanistan and terrorism to economic and development issues through a "strategic dialogue" process. Such U.S. assistance helped Pakistan immensely—from critical budget support in times of economic crisis to much-needed resources to fight domestic terrorists. But behind the veil of the two countries' crucial tactical cooperation remained...

How networks influence radical innovation: the effects of heterogeneity of network ties and crowding out

PurposeThis paper aims to offer a novel set of insights to understand the role of network ties in pursuit of radical innovation. In this sense, the purpose of the study is to analyze how the heterogeneity in the content of network ties affects radical innovation performance.Design/methodology/approachBased on a comprehensive review of existing literature, this paper conceptualizes how different types of network ties affect radical innovation performance by deriving five research propositions.FindingsBoth buyer-supplier ties and peer collaboration ties are positively related to radical innovation performance, whilst the peer collaboration ties may be further affected by partner similarity. Compared to other two types of network ties, equity ties act as more of moderating roles on spurring radical innovation. Crowding out between network ties prevents firms from knowledge searching within an extensive network scope, reducing the opportunities of mixing and matching different kinds of knowledge needed for radical innovation.Research limitations/implicationsThe study suggests a natural way of launching marketing strategy by selectively integrating different sources of knowledge (market, supplier or technology) needed for commercializing radical technologies, highlighting the importance of partner selection for radical innovation among different types of firms surrounding the current market. For managers, it is necessary to identify and select network ties helpful for long-term business and strategic interests.Originality/valueThis paper makes two main contributions. First, it addresses the question of how networks influence radical innovation by identifying three types of network ties and their effects – individual and in combination – on extension of the depth and breadth of knowledge and development of disruptive ideas. Second, it develops the existing literature by demonstrating the crowding-out effect of network ties.

Guest Editorial: Aiming for a Better Oil Price

Guest editorial The debate among leaders in the oil and gas industry originally was about the longevity of the down cycle: Would it be V-shaped or U-shaped, or would prices stay low for a longer period? When it became clear that lower prices were here to stay, the debate shifted to its impact. If the down cycle is healthy and beneficial, it should be allowed to take its course. But if it is seen as a tragedy, it should trigger urgent mitigation. A down cycle is healthy, some believe, because commodity cycles are supply and demand driven. Down cycles trim the fat, boost competition, and differentiate those who are fit to survive. These are the rules of the free market economy, leading to cost efficiency, higher productivity, and greater economic development. Emotions aside, the oil price is determined by the equilibrium of supply and demand, and the consequences of such cycles are realities that the industry must bear. After all, a free market economy is a package deal, and one should expect to see casualties in this journey. The current down cycle will not be the last, and the industry will keep going and continually get healthier over the years. This is the opinion of this camp. It is a tragedy, others believe, because so far approximately 350,000 employees have lost their jobs and about USD 350 billion worth of capital projects have been canceled or deferred. Many small- to medium-sized companies have declared bankruptcy. Hundreds of drilling rigs are stacked. Many students have decided to change their major away from petroleum engineering. Shareholders, including investors and oil-producing countries, have lost trillions of dollars. Indeed, some governments have approached the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and the bond market for rescue. This cycle severely impacted unconventional, deepwater, and other renewable resources. The petroleum industry has suffered an immense loss, with far-reaching consequences that likely will result in oil price spikes in the future. This is a summary of this camp’s position. In his classic book, The Origin of Wealth, Eric D. Beinhocker explained the evolution of economics, strangely enough, by reviewing the basic laws of thermodynamics. Economic theories were developed concurrently alongside the progress of laws of physics. Traditional economies were based on the first law of thermodynamics (energy is neither created nor destroyed). This applies to a closed system where the boundaries of the system do not allow exchange of energy or matter with the outside. A good physical example is the whole universe. If applied to economics, it means that value is preserved and can only be transformed. Resources are transformed into goods and then into utilities. In other words, wealth is transformed but cannot be created. This law states that supply and demand yield an equilibrium sustainable price. But this law assumes that people behave rationally; that is, their decisions are based solely on their self-economic interest and not on ulterior motives such as hatred or altruism. According to this law, the balanced price between supply and demand is equivalent to the cost of goods or services that meets the demand of the customers plus a reasonable margin of profit to make the business sustainable. This also assumes that all players work under same circumstances. But both the assumptions are not valid. Suppliers are sometimes driven by motives other than their self-economic interest. In addition, suppliers may not be working on a level playing field; listed companies are often influenced by market forces and, hence, pursue short-term quarterly results, unlike national oil companies that are able to better pursue long-term strategic interests.

British Diplomacy, Propaganda, and War Strategy and the Hungarian-Romanian Dispute over Transylvania in 1939–40

This article concerns British official policy and political propaganda disseminated in the first year of World War II towards Hungary and Romania. The story is told in the broad framework of the relationship between foreign propaganda, foreign policy implementation, and war strategy. As these embody short-term strategic aims and long-term political objectives, the analysis throws light upon the often differing requirements of British diplomacy, war strategy, and post-war plans. This context is discussed through the prism of the British evaluation of the minority and territorial dispute in Transylvania between Budapest and Bucharest. Such a perspective has been of little concern in the historiography, although it provides a means for putting into question certain basic assumptions underpinning existing models in the history of British policy towards the region. Although these countries lay on the periphery of British war strategy, London aimed at expanding its political influence there during and after the war. For one, the analysis of this dichotomy tells us about the paradoxes, dynamics, and interplays of short- and long-term political, economic, and strategic interests; for another, it answers the question, whether any broad patterns could be reached about British Central and South-East European policy, or did actions distinctively differ towards individual countries? Regarding this last question, it is offered here that, precisely because these countries lay outside of primary imperial interest, standard diplomatic and strategic procedures were subverted, criteria were less carefully calculated, and historical reflexes and prejudices governed British viewpoints and actions.