Long-term Reconstructions Research Articles

A comparison of plant macrofossil-based quantitative climate reconstruction methods: A case study of the lateglacial Baltic States

The recent advancements of new quantitative tools compatible with plant macrofossil proxy data have revived its potential for paleoclimate research. Plant macrofossils are commonly used in so-called indicator-species approaches, using methodologies that are typically built on known observations linking modern plant distributions with climate. This allows complementary paleoclimate reconstructions using an approach that is not limited by the spatial availability of calibration samples obtained from surface sediments (e.g., pollen or chironomids).We aim to evaluate the impact that various methodological choices have on the plant-macrofossil based reconstructions of January and July temperature patterns for the Lateglacial (14–11 ka BP) period. We use a variety of classic and novel quantitative climate reconstruction algorithms with plant macrofossil assemblages from 13 sites of the Baltic States. We use unfiltered plant data to evaluate the ability of each method to also handle the presence of plants that might have a weak sensitivity to temperature. Additionally, we test the influence of another methodological choice – the choice of modern calibration region – on the reconstructed climate.Our findings indicate that, with no prior filtering of summer and winter-sensitive plants, temporal temperature variations can be reconstructed with methods that implement probability density functions. Although some disparities in reconstructions are seen between the tested algorithms, we note that the choice of calibration region bears a greater influence on the results. A calibration region that best represents the past environment should be chosen rather than one representing the same spatial extent as the fossil site(s). Moreover, for long-term reconstructions, a “dynamic calibration set” approach should be considered in future studies by using a range of calibration regions and mirroring the continuously changing broadscale environmental regime of the past.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction in the Pacific Ocean using multi-elemental proxy in Porites and Diploastrea corals: Application to Palau Archipelago

Massive reef-building Porites corals are commonly studied to obtain long-term reconstructions of past sea surface temperature (SST) using temperature-sensitive elemental proxies, such as Sr/Ca or Li/Mg ratios. Most recently, a multi-proxy approach combining these two ratios (e.g. D'Olivo et al., 2018) and the SrU method (DeCarlo et al., 2016) have proved to be more robust to reconstruct paleo-temperatures. To date, no study has been carried out on the application of these new approaches on the Diploastrea heliopora coral, another massive reef-building genus that can potentially provide longer temperature records. Moreover, only a few studies have assessed coral SST calibrations at the scale of the Indo-Pacific basin and compared SST reconstructions obtained from two massive coral genera from the same site.In this study, we investigated the elemental composition of the topmost portion of 34 modern tropical Porites and 6 Diploastrea colonies collected during the Tara Pacific expedition (2016–2018) from various hydrological contexts in the Pacific Ocean. We derived and discussed annual Sr/Ca, Li/Mg, combined Sr/Ca-Li/Mg and Sr/Ca-Li/Ca-Mg/Ca and SrU vs. SST calibrations as well as potential intra-colonial and genus specific effects and evaluated the use of these basin-wide calibration equations. Overall, multi-ratio and multi-genera SST calibrations perform better than single-ratio calibrations and seem to improve temperature reconstructions.These new SST calibrations were applied to two colonies of Porites and Diploastrea collected from the same site in the North-West of the Palau archipelago located in the western Pacific Ocean to evaluate the applicability of universal calibrations based on different proxies and their combination. Coral-based SST records spanning the last 141 years show decadal changes and recent warming episodes that are related to major El Niño Southern Oscillation events. However, differences in reconstruction remain between both genera in the long-term trends, amplitudes, and absolute temperatures, depending on which genus or temperature proxy is considered.

Species-Specific Response to Climate Change: Evident through Retrospective Analysis Using Tree Ring Data

It is likely that changing monsoon patterns and changes in other climatic parameters will have an impact on forests. Tree growth and biomass may respond differently across the different forest recovery contexts after the disturbance regimes. It is essential to understand the response of different tree species in order to comprehend their ability to adapt to climate change. An enhanced understanding of how tree species dynamics change with a substantial shift in climate attributes is crucial to develop adaptive forest management strategies. Advances in the statistical application of tree ring data results in more reliable dating with the high accuracy and precision of any of the paleo-records and robust and long-term reconstructions of key indices such as temperature and precipitation. In this study, we analyzed how different species inhabiting together respond to changes in climatic variables using dendroclimatic analysis. We assessed the growth performance of Abies pindrow, Pinus wallichiana, and Tsuga dumosa in the temperate region of Nepal. The climate sensitivity of the species was analyzed using bootstrap correlation analysis and the climate-growth relationship over time was assessed using the moving correlation function. Tree ring growth of Abies pindrow is stimulated by higher June temperatures and higher March precipitation. This positive relationship is consistent and stationary over time. However, in the other two species, both response function and moving correlation analysis showed that the relationship between climate and growth is inconsistent and changes over time.

Trends in reconstructed monthly, seasonal and annual flows for Irish catchments (1900–2016)

Trends in reconstructed monthly, seasonal and annual flows for Irish catchments (1900–2016)

Tracheidogram’s Classification as a New Potential Proxy in High-Resolution Dendroclimatic Reconstructions

Quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) is widely used to resolve a fundamental problem of tree responses to past, ongoing and forecasted climate changes. Potentially, QWA data can be considered as a new proxy source for long-term climate reconstruction with higher temporal resolution than traditional dendroclimatic data. In this paper, we considered a tracheidogram as a set of two interconnected variables describing the dynamics of seasonal variability in the radial cell size and cell wall thickness in conifer trees. We used 1386 cell profiles (tracheidograms) obtained for seven Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trees growing in the cold semiarid conditions of Southern Siberia over the years 1813–2018. We developed a “deviation tracheidogram” approach for adequately describing the traits of tree-ring formation in different climate conditions over a long-term time span. Based on the NbClust approach and K-means method, the deviation tracheidograms were reliably split into four clusters (classes) with clear bio-ecological interpretations (from the most favorable growth conditions to worse ones) over the years 1813–2018. It has been shown that the obtained classes of tracheidograms can be directly associated with different levels of water deficit, for both the current and previous growing seasons. The tracheidogram cluster reconstruction shows that the entire 19th century was characterized by considerable water deficit, which has not been revealed by the climate-sensitive tree-ring chronology of the study site. Therefore, the proposed research offers new perspectives for better understanding how tree radial growth responds to changing seasonal climate and a new independent proxy for developing long-term detailed climatic reconstructions through the detailed analysis of long-term archives of QWA data for different conifer species and various forest ecosystems in future research.

Changing sea-surface and deep-water conditions in the southern Cape Verde Basin during the mid-Pleistocene to Holocene

Reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) based on long-term records spanning multiple glacial-interglacial transitions is essential for understanding the interplay between ocean dynamics and global climate change. However, despite valuable previous studies, many uncertainties remain, especially regarding the distribution of glacial water masses in the Atlantic and the AMOC intensity. Such long-term reconstructions are highly constrained by sedimentary geochemical records. Here, we present isotope, geochemical, and micropaleontological records from the core ANS-33047 retrieved from the southern part of the Cape Verde Basin at a water depth of 4027 m. The data reflect the glacial–interglacial changes in surface and near-bottom conditions in the area over the last 513 kyr. Within the upper ocean layer, enhanced bioproductivity associated with northward ITCZ migration has been determined during MIS 13/12, early MIS 11, 9, 7, and MIS 1. A gradual deepening of the mixed layer is inferred from MIS 5 to the present. Stronger deep-water upwelling and shoaling of the mixed layer over the study site preceded these intervals. In the deep-water environment, we propose three different regimes within the interglacials: a “classical model” and “local productivity effect” associated with a stronger advection of paleo-NADW into the study area (MIS 11, 5, 1, warm early phases of MIS 9 and 7, MIS 13/12 boundary), as well as “amplified paleo-AABW influence” (late MIS 13 and 7). The bottom-water chemistry was affected by organic matter degradation coinciding with intervals of northward ITCZ migrations and enhanced surface bioproductivity. The most prominent signal of southern-sourced deep water was reconstructed during the late MIS 12, MIS 8, and at the MIS 10/9 boundary. During MIS 3 and sub-stage 12b, the study area was bathed by a mixture of paleo-NADW and paleo-AABW. A comparison of the carbon isotope records from the northeastern and southeastern equatorial Atlantic demonstrates a larger difference in the deep-water properties within glacials in contrast to interglacials. • ITCZ shifts northwards and bioproductivity is enhanced during interglacial intervals. • Increased surface bioproductivity affects δ 13 C composition of paleo-NADW. • Three deep-water regimes occurrs within interglacials. • Stronger meridional variability of deep-water circulation in cold climatic phases.

Inferring precipitation thresholds of landslide activity from long-term dendrochronological and precipitation data: Case study on the unstable slope at Karpenciny, Poland

An extended statistical comparison of numerous precipitation parameters (absolute, minimum, and maximum totals; number of days with precipitation; and duration of precipitation in particular months, seasons, and longer periods) and the 48-y long dendrochronological reconstruction of landslide activity was conducted for a generally unmonitored landslide slope at Karpenciny, Western Carpathians, Poland. The Karpenciny landslide is a deep (approximately 40 m) translational landslide consisting of large, poorly fragmented, and almost intact landslide blocks. It is located only 2.4 km from the meteorological gauging station. We aimed to explore the long-term dependence of this landslide on precipitation conditions and reveal the precipitation parameters crucial for its activity, that is, direct triggers and preparatory antecedent precipitation. Therefore, dendrochronological records of tree-ring eccentricity and compression wood in 35 Norway spruce trees were correlated with 520 precipitation parameters (including seasonality, duration, and total), which might influence the activity of the studied landslide. Ten best-correlated precipitation parameters and seasonal sums of summer half-years and preceding winter half-years (separately and in total, i.e. as 12-month sums), were then tested for their potential in establishing precipitation thresholds for landslide activity. The analysis of multiple precipitation parameters enabled us to develop precipitation thresholds based on both direct causes and long-term preparatory precipitation necessary to accelerate the studied landslide. From the tree-ring data, we established landslide-safe conditions and 0.5-probability thresholds for a particular landslide slope. This study also generated comprehensive data on the seasonality of antecedent and triggering precipitation, long-term periods of antecedent precipitation, critical minimum levels of precipitation that sustain slope imbalance, and the importance of generally wet conditions (demonstrated as a high total number of days with precipitation regardless of its totals) as a factor in landslide activity. These patterns of landslide-precipitation dependence would not have been revealed with standard methods and standard precipitation parameters applied in threshold analyses. Thus, long-term reconstructions can be a valuable source of data for precipitation thresholds of landslide activity.

Tree-Ring Width Data of Tsuga longibracteata Reveal Growing Season Temperature Signals in the North-Central Pearl River Basin since 1824 AD

Concerning the ecological and economical importance of the Pearl River basin, short-term climate changes have been widely studied by using the instrumental records in the basin, but there is still a lack of long-term climatic reconstructions that can be used to evaluate the centennial scale climate anomalies. Here, we present a 237-year tree-ring width chronology from Tsuga longibracteata in the north-central Pearl River basin, with reliable coverage from 1824 to 2016. Based on the significant relationship between tree growth and mean temperature from the previous March to the previous October, we reconstructed the previous growing season (pMar-pOct) temperatures for the past 193 years, with an explained variance of 43.3% during 1958–2016. The reconstruction reveals three major warm (1857–1890, 1964–1976, and 1992–2016) and cold (1824–1856, 1891–1963, and 1977–1991) periods during 1824–2016. Comparison with other temperature sensitive proxy records from nearby regions suggests that our reconstruction is representative of large-scale temperature variations. Significant correlations of tree growth with the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Pacific Ocean, northern Indian Ocean, and Atlantic Ocean suggest that SST variability in these domains may have strongly influenced the growing season temperature change in the Pearl River basin.

Contrasting Signals of the Westerly Index and North Atlantic Oscillation over the Drought Sensitivity of Tree-Ring Chronologies from the Mediterranean Basin

Extreme drought events are becoming increasingly frequent and extended, particularly in Mediterranean drought-prone regions. In this sense, atmospheric oscillations patterns, such as those represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Westerly Index (WI) have been widely proven as reliable proxies of drought trends. Here, we used the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as a reliable indicator of drought, to investigate the drought sensitivity of tree-ring width data (TRW) from several long-lived tree species (Abies borisii-regis, Abies cilicica, Abies pinsapo, Cedrus atlantica, Cedrus libanii, Pinus nigra, Pinus heldreichii). NAO and WI relations with TRW were also investigated in order to identify potential non-stationary responses among those drought proxies. Our temporal and spatial analyses support contrasting Mediterranean dipole patterns regarding the drought sensitivity of tree growth for each tree species. The spatial assessment of NAO and WI relationships regarding SPEI and TRW showed on average stronger correlations westward with non-stationary correlations between annual WI index and TRW in all species. The results indicate that the drought variability and the inferred drought-sensitive trees species (e.g., C. atlantica) are related to the NAO and the WI, showing that TRW is a feasible proxy to long-term reconstructions of Westerly Index (WI) variability in the Western Mediterranean region. Spatial variability of drought severity suggests a complex association between NAO and WI, likely modulated by an east–west Mediterranean climate dipole.

Towards a better understanding of long-term wood-chemistry variations in old-growth forests: A case study on ancient Pinus uncinata trees from the Pyrenees

Dendrochemical studies in old forests are still underdeveloped. Old trees growing in remote high-elevation areas far from direct human influence constitute a promising biological proxy for the long-term reconstructions of environmental changes using tree-rings. Furthermore, centennial-long chronologies of multi-elemental chemistry at inter- and intra-annual resolution are scarce. Here, we use a novel non-destructive method by applying Micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) to wood samples of old Pinus uncinata trees from two Pyrenean high-elevation forests growing on acidic and basic soils. To disentangle ontogenetic (changes in tree age and diameter) from environmental influences (e.g., climate warming) we compared element patterns in sapwood (SW) and heartwood (HW) during the pre-industrial (1700–1849) and industrial (1850–2008) periods. We quantified tree-ring growth, wood density and relative element concentrations at annual (TRW, tree-ring) to seasonal resolution (EW, earlywood; LW, latewood) and related them to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and volcanic eruptions in the 18th and 19th centuries. We detected differences for most studied elements between SW and HW along the stem and also between EW and LW within rings. Long-term positive and negative trends were observed for Ca and K, respectively. Cl, P and S showed positive trends during the industrial period. However, differences between sites were also notable. Higher values of Mg, Al, Si and the Ca/Mn ratio were observed at the site with acidic soil. Growing-season temperatures were positively related to growth, maximum wood density and to the concentration of most elements. Peaks in S, Fe, Cl, Zn and Ca were linked to major volcanic eruptions (e.g., Tambora in 1815). Our results reveal the potential of long-term wood-chemistry studies based on the μXRF non-destructive technique to reconstruct environmental changes.

Vegetation and climate reconstructions on different time scales in China: a review of Chinese palynological research

This paper reviews vegetation and climate reconstructions for different time scales based on palynological studies in China. It discusses examples of significant developments in palynological research topics within China: (1) Modern pollen—a modern pollen database (East Asia Surface Pollen Database) has been established through the collaboration of Chinese palynologists. Based on these data, modern pollen distributions and their quantitative relationship with vegetation and climate have been thoroughly studied. (2) Pre-Quaternary vegetation and climate dynamics—scientists have mapped pollen and palaeobotanical data from the Palaeogene. The vegetation distributions confirm a north–south zonal pattern during the Palaeogene that changed to an east–west monsoonal pattern during the Miocene and Pliocene. These results provide key evidence for understanding monsoon evolution. (3) Late-Quaternary vegetation—biome reconstructions based on fossil pollen data show spatial and temporal changes in vegetation since the Last Glacial Maximum, permitting a better understanding of climate change across China. (4) Quantitative climate reconstructions—some reconstructions have successfully detected Holocene climate variability thereby providing insights into monsoon history. At present, there are no comprehensive spatial reconstructions. Major possible future developments should focus on: (1) long-term vegetation reconstructions from lakes to study Asian monsoon dynamics at orbital scales; (2) quantitative reconstructions of vegetation and climate change to help stronger integration with palaeoclimate models and dynamic vegetation models; (3) land-cover and land-use change across China over the last 6,000 years to understand human impacts and provide empirical data for climate modellers; and (4) integration of pollen data with vegetation and climate modelling to understand the CO2-vegetation relationship and climate dynamics.

Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE

Abstract. The injection of sulfur into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions is the cause of significant climate variability. Based on sulfate records from a suite of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, the eVolv2k database includes estimates of the magnitudes and approximate source latitudes of major volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) events from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, constituting an update of prior reconstructions and an extension of the record by 1000 years. The database incorporates improvements to the ice core records (in terms of synchronisation and dating) and refinements to the methods used to estimate VSSI from ice core records, and it includes first estimates of the random uncertainties in VSSI values. VSSI estimates for many of the largest eruptions, including Samalas (1257), Tambora (1815), and Laki (1783), are within 10 % of prior estimates. A number of strong events are included in eVolv2k which are largely underestimated or not included in earlier VSSI reconstructions, including events in 540, 574, 682, and 1108 CE. The long-term annual mean VSSI from major volcanic eruptions is estimated to be ∼ 0.5 Tg [S] yr−1, ∼ 50 % greater than a prior reconstruction due to the identification of more events and an increase in the magnitude of many intermediate events. A long-term latitudinally and monthly resolved stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) time series is reconstructed from the eVolv2k VSSI estimates, and the resulting global mean SAOD is found to be similar (within 33 %) to a prior reconstruction for most of the largest eruptions. The long-term (500 BCE–1900 CE) average global mean SAOD estimated from the eVolv2k VSSI estimates including a constant background injection of stratospheric sulfur is ∼ 0.014, 30 % greater than a prior reconstruction. These new long-term reconstructions of past VSSI and SAOD variability give context to recent volcanic forcing, suggesting that the 20th century was a period of somewhat weaker than average volcanic forcing, with current best estimates of 20th century mean VSSI and SAOD values being 25 and 14 % less, respectively, than the mean of the 500 BCE to 1900 CE period. The reconstructed VSSI and SAOD data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/eVolv2k_v2.

Reconstructing the suspended sediment load of the Yellow River since 1470 CE using the Drought and Flood Index

The Yellow River of China is well known around the world for its large sediment yield and suspended sediment load (SSL). To better understand the cause of SSL variability, we need long-term perspectives that go back 100–1000yr. However, few long-term reconstructions have been published, especially with high temporal resolution. In this study, we show that the Drought and Flood Index (IDF) based on historical document analysis can be used as a proxy to reconstruct the SSL, the high-flow season (June–October) stream flow, and the annual precipitation of the middle Yellow River from 1470–1919. The calibration equation explains 57.6% of the variance in the SSL produced from the drainage area between the Hekouzhen and Longmen stations on the Yellow River. Variation in the IDF reflects the variation in the summer monsoon in China that causes the variation in water vapor transport, precipitation, and soil erosion. These links explain the mechanism of reconstructing the SSL based on the IDF. The reconstructed 450yr series shows that the SSL responds sensitively to El Niño events. The reconstructed SSL may be used as a baseline to assess the effects of human activity on the SSL for the period after 1970, and the reduction in SSL for the period 1971–2013 was estimated as 4.09×108t/yr, accounting for 48.9% of the annual SSL induced by only climate.

Long-term Reconstructions and Simulations of the Hydrological Cycle in the Inland Rivers, Arid China: A Case Study of the Shiyang River Drainage Basin

Long-term Reconstructions and Simulations of the Hydrological Cycle in the Inland Rivers, Arid China: A Case Study of the Shiyang River Drainage Basin

Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

Abstract. Understanding of long-term dynamics of glaciers and ice caps is vital to assess their recent and future changes, yet few long-term reconstructions using ice flow models exist. Here we present simulations of the maritime Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in Norway from the mid-Holocene through the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present day, using a numerical ice flow model combined with glacier and climate reconstructions. In our simulation, under a linear climate forcing, we find that Hardangerjøkulen grows from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene to its maximum extent during the LIA in a nonlinear, spatially asynchronous fashion. During its fastest stage of growth (2300–1300 BP), the ice cap triples its volume in less than 1000 years. The modeled ice cap extent and outlet glacier length changes from the LIA until today agree well with available observations. Volume and area for Hardangerjøkulen and several of its outlet glaciers vary out-of-phase for several centuries during the Holocene. This volume–area disequilibrium varies in time and from one outlet glacier to the next, illustrating that linear relations between ice extent, volume and glacier proxy records, as generally used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, have only limited validity. We also show that the present-day ice cap is highly sensitive to surface mass balance changes and that the effect of the ice cap hypsometry on the mass balance–altitude feedback is essential to this sensitivity. A mass balance shift by +0.5 m w.e. relative to the mass balance from the last decades almost doubles ice volume, while a decrease of 0.2 m w.e. or more induces a strong mass balance–altitude feedback and makes Hardangerjøkulen disappear entirely. Furthermore, once disappeared, an additional +0.1 m w.e. relative to the present mass balance is needed to regrow the ice cap to its present-day extent. We expect that other ice caps with comparable geometry in, for example, Norway, Iceland, Patagonia and peripheral Greenland may behave similarly, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Integrando escalas y métodos LTER para comprender la dinámica global de un espacio protegido de montaña: el Parque Nacional de Ordesa y Monte Perdido

Garcia M.B., Alados, C.L., Antor, R., Benito Alonso, J.L., Camarero, J.J., Carmena, F., Errea, P., Fillat, F., Garcia-Gonzalez, R., Garcia-Ruiz, J.M., Gartzia, M., Gomez Garcia, D., Gomez, I., Gonzalez-Samperiz, P., Gutierrez, E. Jimenez, J.J., Lopez-Moreno, J.I., Mata, P., Moreno, A., Montserrat, P., Nuche, P., Pardo, I., Revuelto, J., Rieradevall, M., Saiz, H., Tejero, P., Vicente-Serrano, S., Villagrasa, E., Villar, l., Valero-Garces, B. 2016. Integrating scales and LTER methods to better understand the overall dynamics of a mountain protected space: the Ordesa and Monte Perdido National Park. Ecosistemas 25(1): 19-30. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.2016.25-1.04 The Ordesa and Monte Perdido National Park and the Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC) recently joined the Spanish LTER network. As part of our strategy to understand recent changes in this protected area, we are carrying out a number of projects to evaluate changes at different spatio-temporal scales, using a variety of methods and approaches. We highlight here some of the most consolidated ones: long-term reconstructions from sedimentary lake records and cave speleothemes, the dynamics of one of the few active Iberian glaciers, the physico-chemical components of alpine streams, springs and lakes, the fingerprint of climatic change from ancient trees, changes in the composition and structure of biodiversity of alpine communities, natural and man-made grasslands at different altitudes, and the treeline, and population dynamics of endangered species or habitat indicators. The ecological monitoring shows that changes in both climate and land use, are having a strong influence in the physiognomy and structure of some of the most iconic and abundant habitats in the National Park. However, we found an important spatial variability in some processes, and also that others do not fit the established paradigms. The integration of partial results obtained from different methodologies and approaches diminishes the importance of each perception separately, helps to evaluate current changes in a long-term framework (geological scale), and will serve to validate the forecasts when modeling future environmental scenarios.

Forty centimeter long transverse and radial sections cut from fresh increment cores

The analysis of anatomical variations within annual rings of trees and shrubs has great potential for reconstructing past environmental conditions. However, detailed wood anatomical analysis has rarely been applied to long-term reconstructions mostly because of methodological constraints and time-consuming procedures of data collection. We developed a new technique to prepare long, 15–20 μm thick sections for wood anatomical analyses cut from fresh increment cores with a length of up to 40 cm. We used an improved version of the WSL core-microtome and tested the method by sectioning 400 cores from 6 conifer and 25 deciduous species. Standardly used staining and dehydration procedures were successfully applied. This simple, easily applicable and fast technique opens a vast field of possible research by allowing anatomical analysis of long tree-ring cores. In this way long and well-replicated chronologies of cell structures can be developed.

Recent advances in long-term climate and moisture reconstructions from the Baltic region: Exploring the potential for a new multi-millennial tree-ring chronology

This study presents the first results from an ongoing initiative to develop a multi-millennial Baltic tree-ring width (TRW) chronology consisting of 12 floating records from subfossil Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) extracted from three Lithuanian peat-mining areas. The floating series have been complemented with absolutely dated TRW chronologies which were obtained from living trees growing in unmanaged and unexploited peatland areas adjacent to each of the above study sites. The subfossil material has been dated by radiocarbon and shows a temporal spread over the last 6000 years, with assemblages of trees during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 8000-4000 BP) and the onset of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, AD 900–1350). Annual tree growth and sample replication of peatland pines reflect moisture variations and long-term climate variability. The importance of extending the TRW chronologies should not therefore be underestimated as (1) climate records of comparable length and resolution do not exist for the Baltic region, but also as (2) a result of a widespread lack of detailed moisture proxies spanning several millennia. Our data clearly show that a 6000-yr, continuous pine chronology from the Baltic region is a realistic objective, and would doubtlessly fill a major geographic gap in an ecologically sensitive region located at the interface between the temperate and boreal vegetation zones.

Can We Use Tree Rings of Black Alder to Reconstruct Lake Levels? A Case Study for the Mecklenburg Lake District, Northeastern Germany

In this study, we explore the potential to reconstruct lake-level (and groundwater) fluctuations from tree-ring chronologies of black alder (Alnus glutinosa L.) for three study lakes in the Mecklenburg Lake District, northeastern Germany. As gauging records for lakes in this region are generally short, long-term reconstructions of lake-level fluctuations could provide valuable information on past hydrological conditions, which, in turn, are useful to assess dynamics of climate and landscape evolution. We selected black alder as our study species as alder typically thrives as riparian vegetation along lakeshores. For the study lakes, we tested whether a regional signal in lake-level fluctuations and in the growth of alder exists that could be used for long-term regional hydrological reconstructions, but found that local (i.e. site-specific) signals in lake level and tree-ring chronologies prevailed. Hence, we built lake/groundwater-level reconstruction models for the three study lakes individually. Two sets of models were considered based on (1) local tree-ring series of black alder, and (2) site-specific Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI). Although the SPEI-based models performed statistically well, we critically reflect on the reliability of these reconstructions, as SPEI cannot account for human influence. Tree-ring based reconstruction models, on the other hand, performed poor. Combined, our results suggest that, for our study area, long-term regional reconstructions of lake-level fluctuations that consider both recent and ancient (e.g., archaeological) wood of black alder seem extremely challenging, if not impossible.

Optimal ranking regime analysis of TreeFlow dendrohydrological reconstructions

Abstract. The optimal ranking regime (ORR) method was used to identify 6–100-year time windows containing significant ranking sequences in 55 western US streamflow reconstructions, and reconstructions of the level of the Great Salt Lake and San Francisco Bay salinity during 1500–2007. The method's ability to identify optimally significant and non-overlapping runs of low- and high-rankings allows it to re-express a reconstruction time series as a simplified sequence of regime segments marking intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) periods of low or high streamflow, lake level, and salinity. Those ORR sequences, referred to here as Z-lines, can be plotted to identify consistent regime patterns in the analysis of numerous reconstructions. The Z-lines for the 57 reconstructions evaluated here show a common pattern of IMD cycles of drought and pluvial periods during the late 16th and 17th centuries, a relatively dormant period during the 18th century, and the reappearance of alternating dry and wet IMD periods during the 19th and early 20th centuries. Although this pattern suggests the possibility of similarly active and inactive oceanic modes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, such centennial-scale patterns are not evident in the ORR analyses of reconstructed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic sea-surface temperature variation. However, given the inconsistency in the analyses of four PDO reconstructions, the possible role of centennial-scale oceanic mechanisms is uncertain. In future research the ORR method might be applied to climate reconstructions around the Pacific Basin to try to resolve this uncertainty. Given its ability to compare regime patterns in climate reconstructions derived using different methods and proxies, the method may also be used in future research to evaluate long-term regional temperature reconstructions.