Long-term Population Changes Research Articles

Survival Among Patients With High-Risk Gastrointestinal Cancers During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Prior reports demonstrated that patients with cancer experienced worse outcomes from pandemic-related stressors and COVID-19 infection. Patients with certain malignant neoplasms, such as high-risk gastrointestinal (HRGI) cancers, may have been particularly affected. To evaluate disruptions in care and outcomes among patients with HRGI cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic, assessing for signs of long-term changes in populations and survival. This retrospective cohort study used data from the National Cancer Database to identify patients with HRGI cancer (esophageal, gastric, primary liver, or pancreatic) diagnosed between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020. Data were analyzed between August 23 and September 4, 2023. Trends in monthly new cases and proportions by stage in 2020 were compared with the prior 2 years. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression were used to assess 1-year mortality in 2020 compared with 2018 to 2019. Proportional monthly trends and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate 30-day and 90-day mortality in 2020 compared with prior years. Of the 156 937 patients included in this study, 54 994 (35.0%) were aged 60 to 69 years and 100 050 (63.8%) were men. There was a substantial decrease in newly diagnosed HRGI cancers in March to May 2020, which returned to prepandemic levels by July 2020. For stage, there was a proportional decrease in the diagnosis of stage I (-3.9%) and stage II (-2.3%) disease, with an increase in stage IV disease (7.1%) during the early months of the pandemic. Despite a slight decrease in 1-year survival rates in 2020 (50.7% in 2018 and 2019 vs 47.4% in 2020), survival curves remained unchanged between years (all P > .05). After adjusting for confounders, diagnosis in 2020 was not associated with increased 1-year mortality compared with 2018 to 2019 (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.01). The rates of 30-day (2.1% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019, and 2.1% in 2020) and 90-day (4.3% in 2018, 4.4% in 2019, and 4.6% in 2020) operative mortality also remained similar. In this retrospective cohort study, a period of underdiagnosis and increase in stage IV disease was observed for HRGI cancers during the pandemic; however, there was no change in 1-year survival or operative mortality. These results demonstrate the risks associated with gaps in care and the tremendous efforts of the cancer community to ensure quality care delivery during the pandemic. Future research should investigate long-term survival changes among all cancer types as additional follow-up data are accrued.

Long-term changes in petrel populations on Inaccessible Island, Tristan da Cunha, inferred from the diet of Brown Skuas Stercorarius antarcticus

Petrels that breed in burrows and return to their colonies after dark are among the most poorly studied seabirds. Brown Skuas Stercorarius antarcticus (family Stercorariidae) are major predators of burrowing petrels at many seabird breeding islands in the Southern Ocean, so monitoring the diet of skuas can provide insights into petrel population trends. Regurgitated pellets and other prey remains indicate that petrels comprise 94% (monthly range 91–97%) of all prey items in the pellets and other prey remains on Inaccessible Island, Tristan da Cunha. Other seabirds (0.7%), land birds (1.0%), subantarctic fur seals Arctocephalus tropicalis (0.5%) and marine animals (3.5%) make up the remainder of the Brown Skua diet. At least 12 species of petrels are eaten, including two species that are not known to breed on Inaccessible Island, but five taxa comprised over 98% of all petrels eaten: Fregetta storm petrels (44%), White-faced Storm Petrels Pelagodroma marina (23%), Broad-billed Prions Pachyptila vittata (21%), Great Shearwaters Ardenna gravis (6%) and Common Diving Petrels Pelecanoides urinatrix (5%). Pellets containing 2 or 3 avian prey items (15% of pellets) were more likely to contain conspecifics than heterospecifics, indicating either local differences in prey distribution or individual dietary specialisation. The prey composition changed seasonally linked to the phenology of the prey species, with White-faced Storm Petrels more common in the skua diet in spring, and Fregetta storm petrels in summer. Fur seals and Great Shearwaters have become more important in the skua diet, reflecting known or suspected increases in the populations of these species on the island, whereas the populations of Common Diving Petrels and Subantarctic Shearwaters Puffinus elegans may have decreased. Modal tarsal length of Fregetta storm petrels changed from 37 mm in 1987/89 to 39 mm in 2009, suggesting a possible increase of F. tropica relative to F. grallaria in the skua diet. However, overall there has been little change in the diet of Brown Skuas on this island over the last four decades.

Diversified farms bolster forest-bird populations despite ongoing declines in tropical forests

While some agricultural landscapes can support wildlife in the short term, it is uncertain how well they can truly sustain wildlife populations. To compare population trends in different production systems, we sampled birds along 48 transects in mature forests, diversified farms, and intensive farms across Costa Rica from 2000 to 2017. To assess how land use influenced population trends in the 349 resident and 80 migratory species with sufficient data, we developed population models. We found, first, that 23% of species were stable in all three land use types, with the rest almost evenly split between increasing and decreasing populations. Second, in forest habitats, a slightly higher fraction was declining: 62% of the 164 species undergoing long-term population changes; nearly half of these declines occurred in forest-affiliated invertivores. Third, in diversified farms, 49% of the 230 species with population changes were declining, with 60% of these declines occurring in agriculture-affiliated species. In contrast, 51% of the species with population changes on diversified farms showed increases, primarily in forest-affiliated invertivores and frugivores. In intensive farms, 153 species showed population changes, also with similar proportions of species increasing (50%) and decreasing (50%). Declines were concentrated in agriculture-affiliated invertivores and forest-affiliated frugivores; increases occurred in many large, omnivorous species. Our findings paint a complex picture but clearly indicate that diversified farming helps sustain populations of diverse, forest-affiliated species. Despite not fully offsetting losses in forest habitats, diversified farming practices help sustain wildlife in a critical time, before possible transformation to nature-positive policies and practices.

Spatial and temporal non-stationarity in long-term population dynamics of over-wintering birds of North America.

Understanding population changes across long time scales and at fine spatiotemporal resolutions is important for confronting a broad suite of conservation challenges. However, this task is hampered by a lack of quality long-term census data for multiple species collected across large geographic regions. Here, we used century-long (1919-2018) data from the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) survey to assess population changes in over 300 avian species in North America and evaluate their temporal non-stationarity. To estimate population sizes across the entire century, we employed a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for species detection probabilities, variable sampling effort, and missing data. We evaluated population trends using generalized additive models (GAMs) and assessed temporal non-stationarity in the rate of population change by extracting the first derivatives from the fitted GAM functions. We then summarized the population dynamics across species, space, and time using a non-parametric clustering algorithm that categorized individual population trends into four distinct trend clusters. We found that species varied widely in their population trajectories, with over 90% of species showing a considerable degree of spatial and/or temporal non-stationarity, and many showing strong shifts in the direction and magnitude of population trends throughout the past century. Species were roughly equally distributed across the four clusters of population trajectories, although grassland, forest, and desert specialists more commonly showed declining trends. Interestingly, for many species, region-wide population trends often differed from those observed at individual sites, suggesting that conservation decisions need to be tailored to fine spatial scales. Together, our results highlight the importance of considering spatial and temporal non-stationarity when assessing long-term population changes. More generally, we demonstrate the promise of novel statistical techniques for improving the utility and extending the temporal scope of existing citizen science datasets.

A re-survey in 2019-2021 of winter bird communities in the Oregon Coast Range, USA, initially surveyed in 1968-1970.

Long-term changes in bird populations during winter are poorly evaluated in many parts of the world. We re-surveyed forest bird communities during winter, 2019-2021, in seven large plots originally surveyed from 1968 through to 1970, near Corvallis, Oregon, USA by Stanley Anderson, a graduate student at Oregon State University in the 1960s. Anderson counted birds and measured forest plant communities within the forests dominated by Douglas-fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii) in the Coast Range Mountain foothills. His thesis included plot locations, summaries of vegetation characteristics and point estimates of bird densities for each plot. To our knowledge, the Anderson data represent the oldest structured survey of Pacific Northwest winter forest bird communities with density estimates. Given the paucity of similar data, we re-surveyed his plots after aligning methods with his and adding modern components (distance and time interval sampling) to facilitate comparisons of changes in abundances. We preserved more extensive metadata than were preserved from Anderson's surveys, including georeferenced point count survey locations to facilitate more precisely repeatable future re-surveys. Original surveys of winter bird populations in the Pacific Northwest, USA, based on georeferenced locations within seven large plots originally surveyed, 1968-1970. In addition to raw count data of all bird species detected, we include information from distance sampling and time-interval sampling methods. To our knowledge, this is one of the only structured surveys of winter forest bird populations in the Coast Range Mountains, USA.

Spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird.

Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modelling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34-64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structure to changes in short- and long-term population growth rate using transient life table response experiments (LTREs). Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or nonbreeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period. We show that both short- and long-term population changes of British breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in nonbreeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them.

A roadmap for ladybird conservation and recovery.

Ladybirds (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) provide services that are critical to food production, and they fulfill an ecological role as a food source for predators. The richness, abundance, and distribution of ladybirds, however, are compromised by many anthropogenic threats. Meanwhile, a lack of knowledge of the conservation status of most species and the factors driving their population dynamics hinders the development and implementation of conservation strategies for ladybirds. We conducted a review of the literature on the ecology, diversity, and conservation of ladybirds to identify their key ecological threats. Ladybird populations are most affected by climate factors, landscape composition, and biological invasions. We suggest mitigating actions for ladybird conservation and recovery. Short-term actions include citizen science programs and education, protective measures for habitat recovery and threatened species, prevention of the introduction of non-native species, and the maintenance and restoration of natural areas and landscape heterogeneity. Mid-term actions involve the analysis of data from monitoring programs and insect collections to disentangle the effect of different threats to ladybird populations, understand habitat use by taxa on which there is limited knowledge, and quantify temporal trends of abundance, diversity, and biomass along a management-intensity gradient. Long-term actions include the development of a worldwide monitoring program based on standardized sampling to fill data gaps, increase explanatory power, streamline analyses, and facilitate global collaborations.

Bridging expert knowledge and fishery data to examine changes in nearshore rockfish fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska over fifty years

Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) and the fisheries they support along the northeastern Pacific Ocean have undergone dynamic changes over the last century. The unique life history traits of rockfishes pose a host of challenges that make them difficult to monitor and susceptible to overfishing. Previous research has demonstrated that fishers’ knowledge and scientific data can help to create a more complete picture of long-term changes in rockfish populations and nearshore ecosystems. In this study, we used a multiple evidence-based approach that draws together expert knowledge of fishers and fisheries agency staff with long-term harvest data to document recent changes in nearshore rockfish populations and fisheries in two regions along the Gulf of Alaska. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we compiled and analyzed datasets from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game to summarize spatiotemporal trends in commercial and recreational rockfish harvest and interviewed fishers and agency staff about their observations of long-term changes in nearshore rockfish populations and fisheries. We focused on two communities in the eastern and central Gulf of Alaska for which rockfish issues have been at the fore of management in recent years: Sitka and Kodiak, Alaska. We synthesized harvest data and abundance indices from expert knowledge in the context of fishery regulation changes to gain a more holistic perspective on the recent history of Alaska rockfish fisheries. While increases in localized fishing pressure and declines in relative abundance underlie concerns about pelagic and yelloweye rockfish populations and fisheries, stable or high abundance and proactive management for some species and locations also yield an optimistic outlook about their status. Variables such as gear type, sector, time periods fished, regulatory changes, and species targeted influenced experts’ perceptions of rockfish fisheries and populations. Our findings highlight the challenges of bringing together disparate data and the benefits of including multiple knowledge sources to produce a more complete understanding of complex fishery systems.

Incidence of Large Wood Borers in the Conservation of dehesa Islands Forests in Southwestern Spain

The dehesa is a traditional agrosilvopastoral ecosystem characterized by a savanna-like structure. It has been in decline since the middle of the last century, in particular in agricultural environments where it has been relegated to isolated forests. This paper presents a study into the reduction over the past 50 years. One of the main causes of this decline has been identified as xylophagous insects, specifically the wood borer Cerambyx welensii Kuster (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Based on estimations in both the population size, using Jolly Seber models, and the level of tree injury, using a single-index model, the study investigates the role the insect has played in the decline of the dehesa. Surface area loss was found to be greater than 50%, while canopy cover has diminished linearly over the period studied, with the risk of disappearance of the woodland increasing in the same magnitude as borer population density. The highest wood borer population densities observed corresponded to stands with an average canopy cover loss of 1.68% a year, indicating a risk of completely losing the forest cover in the short term (10–30 years). The proposed tree injury index was successful in categorizing the size of the insect population, and seems to be a useful indicator for describing the relationship between the two variables. According to this indicator, woodlands with more than 10% of trees with severe or very severe injuries are at risk. Follow-up work should be undertaken to investigate long-term demographic changes in wood borer populations, and management practices should be developed to reduce the population size, minimize forest loss and preserve these relict oak trees in unconnected landscapes.

Long-term changes in populations of rainforest birds in the Australia Wet Tropics bioregion: A climate-driven biodiversity emergency.

Many authors have suggested that the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change worldwide is significantly higher than in most other ecosystems. Despite the extensive variety of studies predicting severe impacts of climate change globally, few studies have empirically validated the predicted changes in distribution and population density. Here, we used 17 years (2000–2016) of standardised bird monitoring across latitudinal/elevational gradients in the rainforest of the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to assess changes in local abundance and elevational distribution. We used relative abundance in 1977 surveys across 114 sites ranging from 0-1500m above sea level and utilised a trend analysis approach (TRIM) to investigate elevational shifts in abundance of 42 species. The local abundance of most mid and high elevation species has declined at the lower edges of their distribution by >40% while lowland species increased by up to 190% into higher elevation areas. Upland-specialised species and regional endemics have undergone dramatic population declines of almost 50%. The “Outstanding Universal Value” of the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area, one of the most irreplaceable biodiversity hotspots on Earth, is rapidly degrading. These observed impacts are likely to be similar in many tropical montane ecosystems globally.

Long-term decline and geographical variation in the numbers of moulting Common Eiders Somateria mollissima in Shetland

ABSTRACT Capsule Numbers of moulting Common Eiders Somateria mollissima counted in Shetland during surveys from 1977 to 2019 decreased from approximately 14,500 to an estimated 3600 individuals, a 75% population decline. Aims To report results of extensive surveys of Eiders across Shetland during the annual complete moult period, review historical surveys, and evaluate long-term population changes and the possible underlying causes for change. Methods Extensive areas of coastal Shetland were surveyed for Eiders during the annual moult period from July to September, every one to five years from 1977 to 2019. Spatial sampling was variable between surveys from 1977 to 1993 but more systematic and standardised during all surveys from 1996 to 2019. Overall population change, changes in numbers of birds within areas categorised as either exposed or sheltered coast, and change in the proportion of adult males to females/juveniles were assessed. Results Surveys from 1977 to 1993 indicated a 55% decrease, from approximately 14,500–6500 individuals, and surveys from 1996 to 2019 showed a 45% decrease, from an estimated 6700–3600 individuals, indicating an overall population decrease of approximately 75% from 1977 to 2019. From 1996 to 2019, Eider numbers decreased in areas of exposed coast by approximately 90% but increased by at least 70% in the more sparsely populated sheltered areas, and the overall proportion of adult males to females/juveniles reduced by one-third. Conclusion From 1977 to 2019, a substantial decline of approximately 75% occurred in the Shetland Eider population at the time of moult. Shetland Eiders are not S. m. mollissima but morphologically and genetically akin to S. m. faeroeensis, the Faroese subspecies, the rarest subspecies worldwide, so this decline is of high conservation concern. Causes of the decline largely remain unknown, but ecological datasets on Shetland Eiders are few and detailed studies, including remote tracking of individuals’ movements throughout the year, would be worthwhile.

Reconstructing Long-Term Changes in Avian Populations Using Lake Sediments: Opening a Window Onto the Past

The lack of long-term monitoring data for many wildlife populations is a limiting factor in establishing meaningful and achievable conservation goals. Even for well-monitored species, time series are often very short relative to the timescales required to understand a population’s baseline conditions before the contemporary period of increased human impacts. To fill in this critical information gap, techniques have been developed to use sedimentary archives to provide insights into long-term population dynamics over timescales of decades to millennia. Lake and pond sediments receiving animal inputs (e.g., feces, feathers) typically preserve a record of ecological and environmental information that reflects past changes in population size and dynamics. With a focus on bird-related studies, we review the development and use of several paleolimnological proxies to reconstruct past colony sizes, including trace metals, isotopes, lipid biomolecules, diatoms, pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs, invertebrate sub-fossils, pigments, and others. We summarize how animal-influenced sediments, cored from around the world, have been successfully used in addressing some of the most challenging questions in conservation biology, namely: How dynamic are populations on long-term timescales? How may populations respond to climate change? How have populations responded to human intrusion? Finally, we conclude with an assessment of the current state of the field, challenges to overcome, and future potential for research.

Does a Demographic Crisis Threaten European and Polish Agriculture?

In recent decades, problems in family farming have been coupled with a demographic crisis. In the face of unfavourable demographic forecasts and processes, the EU’s agricultural policy has consistently underlined the strategic importance of family farming and the need for its development as a vital segment of the economy and the core of rural communities. The paper aims to assess the grounds for policies focusing on alleviation of the demographic crisis in EU agriculture as well as giving a preliminary presentation of the effects of implementing the instrument involving subsidies for young farmers’ farms, on the example of Poland. The analyses suggest that the mechanisms for accelerating generational changes in EU agriculture have been based on questionable premises and have been not adjusted to the needs at national and regional level. In the EU policy documents and public debate, the support for generational turnover is based on arguments diagnosing a particularly adverse demographic situation in the agricultural sector. The article shows that this position is too general and unnuanced, because it does not include the general long-term population changes, other economic sectors and the different socio-economic and institutional contexts in member states, as well as being limited to a narrow range and often non-comparable public statistics. At present it is also hard to find justification for claims that instruments like subsidies for young farmers have resolved the problem of farms without successors and contributed to generational renewal in agriculture. Varied sources of data and information have been used, including EU and Polish legislation, thematic and expert studies related to demographic issues in agriculture, and empirical material gathered by public institutions.

Modelling population dynamics and trends in migratory birds from non-standardized multi-species ringing data: the potential of multi-model selection

ABSTRACT Capsule Long-term and non-standardized migratory bird ringing data can be used in models controlling variation in bird ringing methodology for reliable population trend estimations. Aims Bird ringing data usually cover long periods and might reflect long-term population changes. However, they are mainly derived during non-standardized multi-species catching at numerous sites during the autumn migration period. We searched for the best modelling approach to determine reliable species population dynamics and trend estimation models based on annual multi-species bird ringing data. Methods We used ringing data from the Slovenian Bird Ringing Scheme and selected data in three steps according to temporal, quantitative, and qualitative data selection. Annual indices were constructed based on two types of denominators, ringing days, and ringing totals, vs. a robust model without a denominator. We ran 20 candidate-generalized additive models describing migrating population dynamics for 15 bird species by combining different data selection approaches and denominators. Results We found that the models were species-specific, although the universal model could also be applied to most species. We propose a general model construction approach for population trend assessments from non-standardized bird ringing data. The estimates obtained by this approach were comparable to the overall European population trends derived from breeding survey data. Conclusions Bird ringing data from the autumn migration period are a valuable resource for assessing continental scale population trends taking into account the whole population (non-breeders and juveniles included) and even some rare and endangered species, but should be conducted according to standard protocols to ensure reliable statistical inference of population trends.

Contrasting long-term population trends of beach-nesting shorebirds under shared environmental pressures

Identifying the drivers of long-term population change is a key goal of ecological studies. It is complicated by extrinsic and intrinsic factors that may covary with time and/or operate on a time lag. For migratory shorebirds that breed on the barrier islands of eastern North America, populations may be limited by the anthropogenic, climatic, biological environments they encounter throughout the annual cycle. Using three-decades (1989–2017) of breeding monitoring data collected by the National Park Service at two national seashores in North Carolina (Hatteras and Lookout), we examined the potential drivers of nesting piping plover (Charadrius melodus) and American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliates) populations. Hatteras had five times more annual visitors than Lookout, and our modelling revealed a strong negative relationship between the population size of breeding plovers and human activity and a positive relationship with protection efforts aimed at reducing disturbance. Breeding and wintering climatic conditions, population productivity, and nesting habitat availability showed only weak effects. Thus, a decade-long decline in plover numbers at both seashores starting in the mid-90s reversed as the parks' visitor counts decreased and stricter protections from potential disturbance were implemented. However, the two sympatric populations of oystercatchers showed the opposite population trends from each other at the neighboring seashores, increasing only on Lookout after a hurricane improved habitat and subsequently the reproductive output. Our study suggests a strong relationship between the anthropogenic environment and the population trend of a threatened species and, simultaneously, the important role of stochastic events in shaping populations of long-lived shorebird species.

Incorporation of feeding functional group information informs explanatory patterns of long-term population changes in fish assemblages.

The objective of this study was to evaluate long term trends of fish taxa in southern Lake Michigan while incorporating their functional roles to improve our understanding of ecosystem level changes that have occurred in the system over time. The approach used here highlighted the ease of incorporating ecological mechanisms into population models so researchers can take full advantage of available long-term ecosystem information. Long term studies of fish assemblages can be used to inform changes in community structure resulting from perturbations to aquatic systems and understanding these changes in fish assemblages can be better contextualized by grouping species according to functional groups that are grounded in niche theory. We hypothesized that describing the biological process based on partial pooling of information across functional groups would identify shifts in fish assemblages that coincide with major changes in the ecosystem (e.g., for this study, shifts in zooplankton abundance over time). Herein, we analyzed a long-term Lake Michigan fisheries dataset using a multi-species state space modeling approach within a Bayesian framework. Our results suggested the population growth rates of planktivores and benthic invertivores have been more variable than general invertivores over time and that trends in planktivores can be partially explained by ecosystem changes in zooplankton abundance. Additional work incorporating more ecosystem parameters (e.g., primary production, etc.) should be incorporated into future iterations of this novel modeling concept.

Long-term and large-scale multispecies dataset tracking population changes of common European breeding birds

Around fifteen thousand fieldworkers annually count breeding birds using standardized protocols in 28 European countries. The observations are collected by using country-specific and standardized protocols, validated, summarized and finally used for the production of continent-wide annual and long-term indices of population size changes of 170 species. Here, we present the database and provide a detailed summary of the methodology used for fieldwork and calculation of the relative population size change estimates. We also provide a brief overview of how the data are used in research, conservation and policy. We believe this unique database, based on decades of bird monitoring alongside the comprehensive summary of its methodology, will facilitate and encourage further use of the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme results.

Population trends of four species of amphibians in western France; results from a 15 year time series derived from road mortality counts

Reports of declining amphibians are a major concern for conservation given their role as indicators of environmental change. This includes potentially impacting on the ecology other species and highlights the importance of monitoring long-term changes in amphibian populations. The core difficulty is gathering long term data sets that as well as being time consuming, may be costly and impractical for logistical reasons. Road mortalities have value in this respect since they are highly visible and have been frequently used as a metric to monitor changes in a variety of animal populations. In this paper they have been employed as proxies to estimate long-term population changes in four European species of amphibians. From January 2005 to December 2019 a total of 747 amphibian mortalities were recorded, the majority of which were urodeles. Most individuals were adults that entered roads during the annual migration period. Long term annual counts fluctuated widely in all species and peaked during the 4-year period from 2009 to 2012 with second period of high numbers in Triturus marmoratus and Hyla arborea during 2018 and 2019. Long-term population trends were evaluated using regression analysis of the logarithmic (loge) transforms of annual counts against year as independent variables, which were then tested against a hypothetical 0 regression coefficient, indicative of population stability. The results indicated long-term stability in T. marmoratus and H. arborea but potential declines in Lissotriton helveticus and Pelophylax lessonae, the latter showing metapopulation extinctions followed by recolonisation. Stepwise regression of potential climate drivers in amphibian numbers suggested a 2-year lag of rainfall during October and December were potential factors involved in population change.

Longitudinal trends of the small mammal community of the Apostle Islands archipelago

Documenting longitudinal changes in small mammal communities provides insights into ecosystem dynamics. We examined changes in small mammal communities of the Apostle Islands archipelago (Wisconsin, USA) since the establishment of the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore in 1970. We trapped small mammals from 20 of the 22 islands of the archipelago (2017–2020) and compared those results to historical (1961–2004) records. Microtus pennsylvanicus (p = 0.0076) and Sorex cinereus (p = 0.0268) exhibited significant changes in distribution. Microtus pennsylvanicus was likely extirpated from 10 of the 11 islands where it was previously detected, while S. cinereus increased in distribution. Peromyscus spp. colonized at least three islands since the establishment of the National Lakeshore, potentially through human-facilitated dispersal (i.e., boating, kayaking). Myodes gapperi remained widespread and abundant. Recent trends (2003–2004 to 2017–2020) in abundance indicated that S. cinereus may be declining locally on the islands, whereas Tamiasciurus hudsonicus may be increasing. Community diversity was driven by island size, regardless of variation over time. Long-term changes in small mammal populations across the archipelago likely reflect reduction of human extractive activities following the establishment of the National Lakeshore and the corresponding succession of vegetative communities. Our work suggests that even though small mammal communities of the archipelago have changed over time, larger islands may be able to better retain species that have been lost on others; therefore, island size remains an important predictor of community diversity.

Rehabilitation Before and After Autologous Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (AHSCT) for Patients With Multiple Sclerosis (MS): Consensus Guidelines and Recommendations for Best Clinical Practice on Behalf of the Autoimmune Diseases Working Party, Nurses Group, and Patient Advocacy Committee of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT)

Autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) is increasingly used to treat people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Supported by an evolving evidence base, AHSCT can suppress active inflammation in the central nervous system and induce long-term changes in immune cell populations, thereby stabilizing, and, in some cases, reversing disability in carefully selected MS patients. However, AHSCT is an intensive chemotherapy-based procedure associated with intrinsic risks, including profound cytopenia, infection, and organ toxicity, accompanied by an on-going degree of immuno-compromise and general deconditioning, which can be associated with a transient increase in functional impairment in the early stages after transplantation. Although international guidelines and recommendations have been published for clinical and technical aspects of AHSCT in MS, there has been no detailed appraisal of the rehabilitation needed following treatment nor any specific guidelines as to how this is best delivered by hospital and community-based therapists and wider multidisciplinary teams in order to maximize functional recovery and quality of life. These expert consensus guidelines aim to address this unmet need by summarizing the evidence-base for AHSCT in MS and providing recommendations for current rehabilitation practice along with identifying areas for future research and development.