Long-term Mass Balance Series Research Articles

Mass balance reconstruction for Shiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountains, Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and its climatic drivers

Based on glacio-meteorological records, 7 years of in-situ mass balance data, and a temperature-index model, the long-term annual and seasonal mass balances of Shiyi Glacier in the northeast Tibetan Plateau (TP) were reconstructed from 1963/64 to 2016/17. Variations were then linked to local climatic and macroscale circulation changes. The model was calibrated based on in-situ mass balance data and was driven by daily air temperature and precipitation data recorded at nearby alpine meteorological stations. The results show that the reconstructed annual mass balance experienced an overall downward trend over the past 54 years, with a remarkably high mass loss rate during 1990/91–2016/17. Analysis of mass balance sensitivity and local climatic changes shows that the pronounced mass loss since the 1990s can be mainly attributed to cumulative positive temperature increases caused by air temperature increases and prolongation of the ablation season. From the perspective of macroscale circulation, the reconstructed annual mass balance values correlate well with zonal wind speeds (June to September) in the glacierized region. For the positive/negative phase of the annual mass balance, an inverse spatial pattern in relation to geopotential height change (low/high-pressure centres) and corresponding conversion of cyclonic/anti-cyclonic circulation were present in northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Comparative analysis of existing long-term mass balance series over the TP indicates that asynchronous climatic changes in the different glacierized regions led to inconsistent interannual fluctuations in glacier mass balance.

Reanalysis of long-term series of glaciological and geodetic mass balance for 10 Norwegian glaciers

Abstract. Glaciological and geodetic methods provide independent observations of glacier mass balance. The glaciological method measures the surface mass balance, on a seasonal or annual basis, whereas the geodetic method measures surface, internal, and basal mass balances, over a period of years or decades. In this paper, we reanalyse the 10 glaciers with long-term mass-balance series in Norway. The reanalysis includes (i) homogenisation of both glaciological and geodetic observation series, (ii) uncertainty assessment, (iii) estimates of generic differences including estimates of internal and basal melt, (iv) validation, and, if needed, (v) calibration of mass-balance series. This study comprises an extensive set of data (484 mass-balance years, 34 geodetic surveys, and large volumes of supporting data, such as metadata and field notes). In total, 21 periods of data were compared and the results show discrepancies between the glaciological and geodetic methods for some glaciers, which are attributed in part to internal and basal ablation and in part to inhomogeneity in the data processing. Deviations were smaller than 0.2 m w.e. a−1 for 12 out of 21 periods. Calibration was applied to 7 out of 21 periods, as the deviations were larger than the uncertainty. The reanalysed glaciological series shows a more consistent signal of glacier change over the period of observations than previously reported: six glaciers had a significant mass loss (14–22 m w.e.) and four glaciers were nearly in balance. All glaciers have lost mass after the year 2000. More research is needed on the sources of uncertainty to reduce uncertainties and adjust the observation programmes accordingly. The study confirms the value of carrying out independent high-quality geodetic surveys to check and correct field observations.

Density assumptions for converting geodetic glacier volume change to mass change

Abstract. The geodetic method is widely used for assessing changes in the mass balance of mountain glaciers. However, comparison of repeated digital elevation models only provides a glacier volume change that must be converted to a change in mass using a density assumption or model. This study investigates the use of a constant factor for the volume-to-mass conversion based on a firn compaction model applied to simplified glacier geometries with idealized climate forcing, and two glaciers with long-term mass balance series. It is shown that the "density" of geodetic volume change is not a constant factor and is systematically smaller than ice density in most cases. This is explained by the accretion/removal of low-density firn layers, and changes in the firn density profile with positive/negative mass balance. Assuming a value of 850 ± 60 kg m−3 to convert volume change to mass change is appropriate for a wide range of conditions. For short time intervals (≤3 yr), periods with limited volume change, and/or changing mass balance gradients, the conversion factor can however vary from 0–2000 kg m−3 and beyond, which requires caution when interpreting glacier mass changes based on geodetic surveys.

Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100

Abstract. This study addresses the extrapolation of in-situ glacier mass balance measurements to the mountain-range scale and aims at deriving time series of area-averaged mass balance and ice volume change for all glaciers in the European Alps for the period 1900–2100. Long-term mass balance series for 50 Swiss glaciers based on a combination of field data and modelling, and WGMS data for glaciers in Austria, France and Italy are used. A complete glacier inventory is available for the year 2003. Mass balance extrapolation is performed based on (1) arithmetic averaging, (2) glacier hypsometry, and (3) multiple regression. Given a sufficient number of data series, multiple regression with variables describing glacier geometry performs best in reproducing observed spatial mass balance variability. Future mass changes are calculated by driving a combined model for mass balance and glacier geometry with GCM ensembles based on four emission scenarios. Mean glacier mass balance in the European Alps is −0.31 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1 in 1900–2011, and −1 m w.e. a−1 over the last decade. Total ice volume change since 1900 is −96 ± 13 km3; annual values vary between −5.9 km3 (1947) and +3.9 km3 (1977). Mean mass balances are expected to be around −1.3 m w.e. a−1 by 2050. Model results indicate a glacier area reduction of 4–18% relative to 2003 for the end of the 21st century.

Climate variability and glacier reaction in the Austrian eastern Alps

AbstractA carefully homogenized climate dataset is used to interpret glacier behaviour in the Austrian Alps. Periods of glacier advance are generally more maritime and cooler, with reduced sunshine duration and increased precipitation sum during the ablation period. Periods of retreat are associated with a more continental, warmer climate, with increased sunshine duration and reduced precipitation sum. Three recent sub-periods of Austrian glacier behaviour are documented by direct measurement of glacier mass balance (before 1965 more negative; 1965–81 more positive; since 1982 more negative). A long-term mass-balance series in the eastern part of the Austrian Alps parameterized by snow-depth measurements indicates very clearly that periods of more negative mass balance have a higher correlation to summer air temperature and a lower correlation to winter accumulation. Periods of more positive mass balance are highly correlated to winter accumulation and only slightly correlated to summer temperature. The positive mass-balance period 1965–81 is also characterized by negative North Atlantic Oscillation index values which caused an increased meridional circulation mode, resulting in a northwesterly to northerly precipitation regime during winter.