Long-term Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

Paleo-tropical cyclone activity over the last millennium inferred from shipwreck relics in the Xisha Islands, northern South China Sea

The prediction of the impact of long-term climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) activity has become a global concern, for which paleotempestology could provide crucial information about TC activity before instrumental archives. The ancient shipwrecks could alternatively be applied to retrieve paleo-TC activity owing to strong TC activity being among the dominant causes of historical shipwrecks. This study presents a preliminary study exploring the potential relationship between the shipwrecks and TC activity based on the compilation of shipwreck relics and chronological assessments of porcelains associated with the shipwrecks in the Xisha Islands, in the northern South China Sea (SCS). The compilation generally spans from the Song Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty (approximately 960 to 1850 CE), showing relatively enhanced shipwreck events during the time interval between 1400 and 1700 CE, consistent with the increased moisture and flood events during this period from other adjacent sedimentary records. Further analysis suggests that paleo-TC activity was controlled by multiple mechanisms concerning the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and Asian dust emissions. Frequent ENSO events and the southward retreat of the ITCZ would have contributed to increased moisture in tropical regions promoting TC activity during the Little Ice Age (LIA), while the dust would strengthen TC activity through atmospheric circulations. Additional work combining the archaeological and sedimentary archives should be indispensable to further understand the climatic connections and potential mechanisms of TC processes, under climate change and relevant mitigation measures.

An analysis of long-term and short-term impact of climate change on rice production in India

PurposeClimate change-related weather events significantly affect rice production. In this paper, we investigate the impact of and interrelationships between agriculture inputs, climate change factors and financial variables on rice production in India from 1970–2021.Design/methodology/approachThis study is based on the time series analysis; the unit root test has been employed to unveil the integration order. Further, the study used various econometric techniques, including vector autoregression estimates (VAR), cointegration test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and diagnostic test for ARDL, fully modified least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), impulse response functions (IRF) and the variance decomposition method (VDM) to validate the long- and short-term impacts of climate change on rice production in India of the scrutinized variables.FindingsThe study's findings revealed that the rice area, precipitation and maximum temperature have a significant and positive impact on rice production in the short run. In the long run, rice area (ß = 1.162), pesticide consumption (ß = 0.089) and domestic credit to private sector (ß = 0.068) have a positive and significant impact on rice production. The results show that minimum temperature and direct institutional credit for agriculture have a significant but negative impact on rice production in the short run. Minimum temperature, pesticide consumption, domestic credit to the private sector and direct institutional credit for agriculture have a negative and significant impact on rice production in the long run.Originality/valueThe present study makes valuable and original contributions to the literature by examining the short- and long-term impacts of climate change on rice production in India over 1970–2021. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, The majority of the studies examined the impact of climate change on rice production with the consideration of only “mean temperature” as one of the climatic variables, while in the present study, the authors have considered both minimum as well as maximum temperature. Furthermore, the authors also considered the financial variables in the model.

Climate change and Indigenous mental health in Australia: In the aftermath of the defeat of the Voice referendum.

This manuscript delves into the intricate connection between climate change and Indigenous mental health in Australia, with a focus on the aftermath of the defeat of the 'Voice' referendum. Climate change, recognized for its broad impact on mental health determinants, poses heightened risks to vulnerable communities, including Indigenous populations. The defeat of 'The Voice' referendum adds complexity, highlighting concerns about the lack of meaningful rights for the First Peoples of Australia. The bushfires further underscore ecological consequences, affecting Indigenous ecosystems and intensifying existing environmental challenges. Climate change exacerbates existing health challenges for Indigenous peoples, introducing new issues like ecological sorrow and anxiety. The manuscript advocates for prioritized research in Indigenous communities to explore the link between climate change and mental health. It emphasizes interdisciplinary and collaborative research, giving voice to those directly affected by climate change. The lack of trust between Indigenous populations and authorities, along with the implications on self-determination, is crucial research focus. Renewable energy emerges as a potential solution deeply ingrained in Indigenous practices. The manuscript discusses challenges in achieving eco-friendly resettlement, emphasizing collaboration difficulties between the government and remote communities. The indigenous worldview, with its interconnectedness, is crucial for sustainable strategies. Indigenous perspectives on planetary health are crucial, emphasizing the importance of Indigenous knowledge in shaping effective climate policies. The manuscript stresses dialogues between policymakers and Indigenous elders for formulating respectful land laws. It calls for global attention to the role of Indigenous peoples as biodiversity caretakers and urges recognition of their knowledge in climate change. Future directions include data collection for ecosystem protection, improving mental health outcomes post-climate events, and supporting impacted communities. Mental health care approaches in remote communities and practitioner training for climate-related issues are emphasized. The manuscript calls for increased funding for interdisciplinary research to understand the long-term impact of climate change on mental health, especially among vulnerable populations.

Unintended consequences of English school stock energy-efficient retrofit on cognitive performance of children under climate change

School building stock retrofit forms a key part of UK's commitment to net-zero carbon target by 2050. However, with a changing climate, the retrofit of school buildings may have unintended consequences on classroom thermal environments and cognitive performance of children in non-heating seasons. This paper aims to quantify the impact of school stock retrofit in accordance with increasingly tightening energy efficiency regulatory requirements on cognitive performance of English children, while also exploring the potential adaptation measures under climate change. The results indicate that English schools that undergo envelope insulation exhibit higher Cognitive Performance Loss (CPL) of children compared to their original conditions. Passive climate adaptation measures, especially increased daytime ventilation rate was found to be an effective strategy for mitigating the impact of climate change on cognitive performance. However, the benefits of passive measures will diminish as the climate warms, while air conditioning will be required to maintain cognitive performance loss at relatively low levels. In addition to the reduction of heating load, envelope insulation can provide benefits for English schools in cooler climatic regions from both cognitive performance and energy point of view. The study calls for the CPL to be added as one of the key performance indicators when considering the long-term impact of climate change on schools. This would enable policy makers and relevant stakeholders to make more holistic decisions regarding school stock retrofit while ensuring that classrooms are conducive to learning.

Climate change impact on photovoltaic power potential in South America

Abstract This paper presents the first study of the long-term impact of climate change on photovoltaic potential in South America. This region has great potential for implementing renewable energy, mainly solar energy solutions, due to its high solar irradiance levels. Based on the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the South American region, we estimate how climate change could affect photovoltaic power potential by the end of the century. The evidence suggests that photovoltaic potential could have a maximum decrease of around 15%, and a maximum increase of approximately 7%, primarily due to changes in solar irradiance of different zones. Furthermore, it is observed that regions with increased temperature also show increased solar irradiance levels, which could, to some extent, compensate for the losses caused by the rise in temperature. Therefore, photovoltaic production in most of the territory will not be negatively affected.

The Long-Term Impact of Climate Change on Future UK Offshore Wind Operations

The Long-Term Impact of Climate Change on Future UK Offshore Wind Operations

Analysing the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation dynamics and their responses to climatic parameters in Meghalaya from 2001 to 2020.

Quantification of the spatio-temporal trends in vegetation dynamics and its drivers is crucial to ensure sustainable management of ecosystems. The north-eastern state of Meghalaya possessing an idiosyncratic climatic regime has been undergoing tremendous pressure in the past decades considering the recent climate change scenario. A robust trend analysis has been performed using the MODIS NDVI (MOD13Q1) data (2001-2020) along with multi-source gridded climate data (precipitation and temperature) to detect changes in the vegetation dynamics and corresponding climatic variables by employing the Theil-Sen Median trend test and Mann-Kendall test (τ). The spatial variability of trends was gauged with respect to 7 major forest types, administrative boundaries and different elevational gradients found in the area. Results revealed a large positive inter-annual trend (85.48%) with a minimal negative trend (14.52%) in the annual mean NDVI. Mean Annual Precipitation presents a negative trend in 66.97% of the area mainly concentrated in the eastern portion of the state while the western portion displays a positive trend in about 33.03% of the area. Temperature exhibits a 98% positive trend in Meghalaya. Pettitt Change Point Detection revealed three major breakpoints viz., 2010, 2012 and 2014 in the NDVI values from 2001 to 2020 over the forested region of Meghalaya. A consistent future vegetation trend (87.78%) in Meghalaya was identified through Hurst Exponent. A positive correlation between vegetation and temperature was observed in about 82.81% of the area. The western portion of the state was seen to reflect a clear correlation between NDVI and rainfall as compared to the eastern portion where NDVI is correlated more with temperature than rainfall. A gradual deviation of rainfall towards the west was identified which might be feedback of the increasing significant greening observed in the state in the recent decades. This study, therefore, serves as a decadal archive of forest dynamics and also provides an insight into the long-term impact of climate change on vegetation which would further help in investigating and projecting the future ecosystem dynamics in Meghalaya.

Assessing the long-term impact of climate change on olive crops and olive fly in Andalusia, Spain, through climate indices and return period analysis

The objective of this study is to investigate the long-term effects of climate change on olive crops in Andalusia, one of the most important olive growing areas worldwide, using tailored climate indices and return period analysis. Both the climatic indices and the occurrence probabilities of bad years in terms of olive yield and olive fly risk are being calculated for the reference period 1971–2000 and for the near (2031–2060) and distant future (2071–2100) under two emission scenarios using an ensemble of five high-resolution, bias-adjusted Regional Climate Models. Three threshold-based temperature related indices (SPR32, SU36, SU40) as well as mean temperature and precipitation related climatic indices (SPRTX, WINRR) have been calculated, revealing increasing changes in the near and distant future and pointing out the challenges faced by the olive sector due to climate change; a robust increase of the threshold-based indices are found in central and northern Andalusia, mainly in the provinces of Seville, Cordoba and Jaen. Although the changes of the precipitation-related index are less pronounced for the near future, robust decreases are projected for the distant future period under a high emission scenario. The identification of the bad years is based on observational data from five monitoring stations in Andalusia (Malaga, Granada, Sevilla, Cordoba and Jaen). The role of certain meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity) is investigated and the return levels of interest for the calculation of the occurrence probabilities are estimated by the upper tail of the reference distribution. The results indicate an overall tendency for increased occurrence probability of bad years in terms of olive yield due to future decreased precipitation; bad year occurrences with return periods of below 2 years may increase by about 20 % by 2060. Spatial variability is also evident with overall larger changes in western Andalusia. The range of the olive fly is expected to decrease in the northern areas of Andalusia.

Impact of long-term climate change on flow regime in a Mediterranean basin

Study regionCatchment in Southern Italy Study focusThe flow regime of intermittent rivers is very sensitive to anthropogenic pressures and climate change (CC). This study investigated the long-term impact of CC on the flow regime of an intermittent river system, the Celone River (S-E, Italy), under the Mediterranean climate. The trends in precipitation and temperature measured over the past century were investigated, and the flow regime was characterized by using 27 indicators of hydrological alteration. Climate projections for the future (2030–2059) were used to predict potential CC impact on the flow regime. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was run to simulate hydrology for the current and future scenarios. New hydrological insights for the regionA significant increase in temperature and a reduction in the number of days with temperatures below 0 °C was recorded from 1958 to 2012. For the future, climate model projections predicted an increase in the daily temperature and a decrease in rainfall (4–9%) as compared with the baseline (1980–2009). As a result, the model predicted reductions in the mean annual flow by up to 21% and 39% compared to the baseline and the historical period (1965–1996), respectively. It also predicted a reduction in the maximum annual flow recorded over 90 consecutive days up to 18%, and an extension of the no-flowing phase by up to 12 days.

Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where productivity is affected by deviations of temperature and precipitation from their long-term moving average historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. We also show that the marginal effects of temperature shocks vary across climates and income groups. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04 °C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement goals, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01 °C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. The estimated losses would increase to 13 percent globally if country-specific variability of climate conditions were to rise commensurate with annual temperature increases of 0.04 °C.

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.

Year-ahead predictability of South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation

Since the South Asia Summer Monsoon is the main source of water for a densely cultivated and climate-sensitive region, its predictability has long been the target of research. This work estimates the predictability horizon of monsoon precipitation amount by systematically comparing statistical forecasts made using information from different lead times before the monsoon start. Linear and nonlinear prediction methods are considered that use the leading modes of the global sea surface temperature field to forecast monsoon-season (June–September) total precipitation on a 0.5° grid over South Asia, where each method is trained on data from 1901 to 1996 and evaluated on data from 1997 to 2017. Forecasts were found to outperform a climatology baseline up to at least 1 year ahead, with a nonlinear method (random forest) on average outperforming linear regression with group lasso, although with greater variability in skill across locations and years. Forecast performance measures (fractional reduction in root mean square error and information skill score) decreased with increasing lead time following exponential decay timescales of 5–12 months, depending on the performance measure and forecast method. Even at lead times of several years, there was some forecast skill compared to climatology, as a result of the impact of long-term climate change on monsoon precipitation. The results suggest that monsoon prediction is possible with longer lead times than generally attempted now.

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where productivity is affected by deviations of temperature and precipitation from their long-term moving average historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. We also show that the marginal effects of temperature shocks vary across climates and income groups. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04 °C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement goals, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01 °C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. The estimated losses would increase to 13 percent globally if country-specific variability of climate conditions were to rise commensurate with annual temperature increases of 0.04 °C. • We study the long-term impact of climate change on cross-country economic activity • Growth is affected by persistent changes in temperature relative to historical norms • Growth effects vary based on pace of temperature increases and climate variability • The marginal effects of temperature shocks vary across climates and income groups. • Abiding by the Paris Agreement goals limits future income losses substantially

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables-defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.

How Can Climate Change Affect the UNESCO Cultural Heritage Sites in Panama?

This work investigates the impact of long-term climate change on heritage sites in Latin America, focusing on two important sites in the Panamanian isthmus included in the World Heritage List: the monumental site of Panamá Viejo (16th century) and the Fortresses of Portobelo and San Lorenzo (17th to 18th centuries). First of all, in order to support the conservation and valorisation of these sites, a characterisation of the main construction materials utilized in the building masonries was performed together with an analysis of the meteoclimatic conditions in their vicinity as provided by monitoring stations recording near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall amounts. Secondly, the same climate variables were analysed in the historical and future simulations of a state-of-the-art global climate model, EC-Earth, run at high horizontal resolution, and then used with damage functions to make projections of deterioration phenomena on the Panamanian heritage sites. In particular, we performed an evaluation of the possible surface recession, biomass accumulation, and deterioration due to salt crystallisation cycles on these sites in the future (by midcentury, 2039–2068) compared to the recent past (1979–2008), considering a future scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.

Spatio-temporal Variations of Diatom Community and Their Relationship with Water Environment in Fuxian Lake

Fuxian Lake is an important deep lake in China with trophic status generally categorized as class I. However, there exists a trend of degradation in its ecological and environmental health under the increasing impacts derived from catchment development and recent global warming. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the community composition, distribution patterns, and driving factors of lake biota. In order to uncover the spatio-temporal variations in water quality and diatom communities, a monthly survey of diatom community composition and limnological characteristics was carried out in the surface waters of three sampling sites from the south, middle, and north of the lake basin in Fuxian in 2015. A total of 166 diatom species belonging to 31 genera were identified, which was dominated by planktonic diatoms with the extirpation of Cyclotella rhomboideo-elliptica, an endemic species for Yunnan. Diatom community structure showed significant seasonal succession across the three sites, which were dominated by Fragilaria crotonensis in January and February, by Aulacoseira granulata in March, by Cyclotella ocellata and F. crotonensis in April, and by C. ocellata for other months (i.e., relative abundance of ~80%). Over the spatial scale, the distribution of the dominant diatoms displayed a high degree of similarity. Principal component analysis further showed that there existed significant difference in the diatom community structure and lake environment over the temporal scale, but no significant deviance was found across the three sites. The results of redundancy analysis and variation partitioning revealed that the key driver included meteorological and physical factors (i.e., water temperature, wind velocity, and Secchi depth), which accounted for 27.6% of the total variance in diatom community changes. In combination with the thermocline analysis, the change in lake hydrodynamics may have influenced the thickness and duration of the thermal stratification of lake water, resulting in the reorganization of the diatom community. At the same time, the lake-water nutrients and ions also exerted an important influence on community structuring, which explained the 21.2% and 9.4% of the diatom variation, respectively. Therefore, regional warming and catchment development have significantly structured the biological community and ecosystem health of Fuxian Lake. In all, measures should be taken not only to control the watershed input of pollutants but also to actively mitigate the long-term impact of climate change for the protection and ecological remediation of Fuxian Lake.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ДОЛГОСРОЧНЫХ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА ЦЕНЫ ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЕЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ РАСТЕНИЕВОДСТВА В РОССИИ

ВЛИЯНИЕ ДОЛГОСРОЧНЫХ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА ЦЕНЫ ПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЕЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ РАСТЕНИЕВОДСТВА В РОССИИ

Temporal trends in live foraminiferal assemblages near a pollution outfall on the Levant shelf

Long and short term effects of activated sewage sludge input on live benthic foraminiferal assemblages of the shallow shelf off Palmachim, Israel were examined at three stations along the eutrophic gradient. Over ten years from 2003 to 2012, foraminiferal abundance decreased dramatically by >50% in all stations. In 2012, new species were found near the discharge point, relative abundance of the dominant species decreased and in-sediment depth increased. In the remote stations the dominant species failed to bloom seasonally. Each year, dispersion of sludge was accompanied by intense current activity, aeration, and periodic local sediment transport, reintroducing species from nearby. Storm frequency was notably high in 2012. The decrease in numbers over time despite seasonal amelioration indicates that the constant OM input is a permanent source of environmental stress. Aside from this stress, natural variability, changes in Nile input, or a hidden impact of long-term climate change may play a role.

Temporal Variability of Zooplankton (2000-2013) in the Levantine Sea: Significant Changes Associated to the 2005-2010 EMT-like Event?

In this study, we investigated, for the first time, the potential impact of environmental changes on zooplankton abundance over a fourteen year period (2000–2013) at an offshore station in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (the Levantine basin, offshore Lebanon). Samples were collected monthly and analyzed using the semi-automated system ZooScan. Salinity, temperature and phytoplankton abundance (nano and microphytoplankton) were also measured. Results show no significant temporal trend in sea surface temperature over the years. Between 2005–2010, salinity in the upper layer (0–80 m) of the Levantine basin increased (~0.3°C). During this 5 year period, total zooplankton abundance significantly increased. These modifications were concomitant to the activation of Aegean Sea as a source of dense water formation as part of the “Eastern Mediterranean Transient-like” event. The results of the present study suggested that zooplankton benefited from enhanced phytoplankton production during the mixing years of the event. Changes in the phenology of some taxa were observed accordingly with a predominantly advanced peak of zooplankton abundance. In conclusion, long-term changes in zooplankton abundance were related to the Levantine thermohaline circulation rather than sea surface warming. Sampling must be maintained to assess the impact of long-term climate change on zooplankton communities.

Nest temperatures of the Piai and Sayang Islands green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries, Raja Ampat Papua, Indonesia: Implications for hatchling sex ratios

Tapilatu RF, Ballamu F. 2015. Nest temperatures of the Piai and Sayang Islands green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries, Raja Ampat Papua, Indonesia: Implications for hatchling sex ratios. Biodiversitas 16: 102-107. Sex determination and hatching success in sea turtles is temperature dependent. Warmer sand temperatures may skew sea turtle population sex ratios towards predominantly females and high sand temperatures may also decrease hatching success. Therefore, understanding nest temperatures is important for conservation programs, including the evaluation of the potential impact of global climate change. Nest temperatures were monitored during the 2013 nesting season of the green sea turtle, Chelonia mydas, at Piai and Sayang Islands, Raja Ampat, West Papua, Indonesia. Nest temperatures increased from 29oC early in the incubation to 34-36oC in the middle, before decreasing again. Monitored nest temperatures were similar across all beaches. Nest temperatures increased 2-4oC during the middle third of incubation due to metabolic heating. Hatchling sex ratio inferred from nest temperature profiles indicated a strong female bias. This finding is consistent with the relatively warm thermal profiles of the majority of the nesting beaches. This also included some extremely warm nest temperatures that were associated with lower hatching success. Information from this study provides a foundation for developing conservation strategies for enhancing hatchling production with optimal sex ratios at the most important nesting beaches for the western Pacific green sea turtle. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of sex ratios for green sea turtles in Raja Ampat and represents the initiation of a long-term database that can be used at a local level to develop strategies that could potentially offset the impact of long-term climate change on the western Pacific green sea turtle.